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October2011
ShortTermEnergyandWinterFuelsOutlook
October12,2011Release
Highlights
EIAprojectsaveragehouseholdheatingexpendituresfornaturalgas,propane,
andheatingoilwillincreaseby3percent,7percent,and8percent,
respectively,thiswinter(October1toMarch31)comparedwithlastwinter,
whileelectricityheatingexpendituresfallbylessthan1percent.Average
expendituresforhouseholdsthatheatwithoilareforecasttobehigherthanin
anypreviouswinter.
Thisforecastreflectshigherpricesfornaturalgas,propane,andheatingoil,
andslightlymilderweatherthanlastwinterinmuchoftheNationcontributing
tolowerconsumptioninmanyareas(seeEIAShortTermEnergyandWinter
FuelsOutlookslideshow).
AccordingtotheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrations(NOAA)
mostrecentprojectionofheatingdegreedays,thelower48Statesareforecast
tobe2percentwarmerduringtheOctoberthroughMarchwinterheating
seasoncomparedwithlastwinter.However,heatingdegreedayprojections
varywidelyamongregions,withtheWestprojectedtobeabout3percent
colderthanlastwinter,andtheSouthprojectedtobeabout5percentwarmer.
ForecastU.S.realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growsby1.5percentthisyear
andby1.8percentnextyear,slightlylowerthaninlastmonthsOutlook.World
oilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby3.0percentand3.5percentin
2011and2012,respectively,comparedwith3.1percentand3.8percentinthe
lastOutlook.EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilto
average$99perbarrelin2011and$98perbarrelin2012,comparedwith$100
perbarreland$103perbarrel,respectively,inthepreviousOutlook.
NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedSeptember2011at3.4trillioncubicfeet
(Tcf),about2.6percent,or91billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endof
Septemberlevel.EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswill
approachlastyearshighlevelsbytheendtheinjectionseason.Theprojected
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.15permillionBritishthermal
units(MMBtu)in2011,$0.24perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIA
expectstherateofgrowthindomesticnaturalgasproductiontoslowin2012,
withtheHenryHubspotpriceaveraging$4.32perMMBtu.
ProjectedWinterFuelExpendituresbyFuelandRegion
TheaveragehouseholdwinterheatingfuelexpendituresdiscussedinthisOutlook
provideabroadguidetochangescomparedwithlastwinter,butfuelexpenditures
forindividualhouseholdsarehighlydependentonlocalweatherconditions,market
size,thesizeandenergyefficiencyofindividualhomesandtheirheatingequipment,
andthermostatsettings(seeWinterFuelsOutlooktable).
NaturalGas.EIAexpectshouseholdsheatingwithnaturalgastospendanaverageof
$19(3percent)morethiswinterthanlastwinter.AboutonehalfofU.S.households
utilizenaturalgasastheirprimaryheatingfuel.Theincreaseinnaturalgas
expendituresrepresentsa4percentincreaseinpricesanda1percentdecreasein
consumption.IntheMidwest,where71percentofhouseholdsusenaturalgasasthe
primaryheatingfuel,averagehouseholdexpendituresareexpectedtobeunchanged
fromlastwinter.Theprojectedchangesinresidentialnaturalgaspricesthiswinter
rangefroma2percentdeclineintheWesttoa10percentincreaseintheSouth.Price
changesvaryacrossregionsbecauseofanumberoffactorssuchasregionalchanges
inproductionandpipelinesupplycapacityanddifferencesinregulatoryconstraints
inpassingpricechangesthroughtocustomers.
HeatingOil.EIAexpectshouseholdsheatingprimarilywithheatingoiltospendan
averageofabout$193(8percent)morethiswinterthanlastwinterasaresultofa10
percentincreaseinpricesanda1percentdecreaseinconsumption.About6percent
ofU.S.householdsdependonheatingoilforwinterfuel;however,theNortheast
accountsforabout80percentofthesehouseholds.EIAprojectsresidentialheatingoil
pricestoaverage$3.71pergallonduringthewinterseason,33centspergallonmore
thanlastwinter,andthehighestaveragewinterpriceonrecord(althoughlowerthan
therecordheatingoilpricesrealizedduringthesummerof2008whencrudeoiland
allpetroleumproductpriceshittheirpeak).
Propane.About5percentoftotalU.S.householdsheatwithpropane.EIAexpects
householdsheatingprimarilywithpropanetospendmorethiswinter,butthat
increasevariesacrossregions.EIAexpectsthathouseholdsintheMidwestwillseean
averageincreaseinwinterpropaneexpendituresof4percent,asprojectedresidential
propanepricesincreaseby5percentfromlastwinterandconsumptionfallsbyabout
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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1percent.HouseholdsintheNortheastmayseealargerincreaseinpropaneprices
withexpendituresrisingby9percent.
Electricity.Householdsheatingprimarilywithelectricitycanexpecttospendan
averageof$6(1percent)lessthiswinter.Projectedhouseholdelectricityexpenditures
arelowerthiswinterbecausethedeclineinconsumptionmorethanoffsetsa1
percentincreaseinprices.About37percentofallU.S.householdsrelyonelectricity
astheirprimaryheatingfuel,rangingfrom14percentintheNortheastto62percent
intheSouth.Thenumberofhouseholdsheatingwithelectricityisexpectedto
increaseby1.7percentfromlastwinter.About80percentoftheincreaseoccursinthe
South,whereelectricheatpumpsarepopular.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Theexpectedpaceofglobaloilconsumption
growthfor2011isslightlylowerinthismonthsOutlook,whileprojectedtotalsupply
in2011ishigher,resultinginsomeeasingofoilmarkettightness.Despitethiseasing,
EIAcontinuestoexpectmarketstorelyoninventoriestomeetsomeconsumption
growthin2011and2012.Oilconsumptiongrowthfromcountriesoutsideofthe
OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)isprojectedto
outpacethegrowthinsupplyfromproducersthatarenotmembersofthe
OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC),implyinganeedfor
OPECproducerstoincreasetheiroutputtobalancethemarketin2011and2012.
Oilpricescontinuetofaceupwardpricepressureduetosupplyuncertaintyand
downwardpricepressurebecauseofloweringexpectationsofeconomicgrowth.
Upsideuncertaintytothecrudeoilpriceoutlookremainsasaresultofongoingunrest
inoilproducingregions.HeightenedturmoilinSyria,whichproducedanaverage
400thousandbbl/din2010,andthepotentialformoresanctionsonthecountrys
energysectorisonesourceofrisktononOPECsupply.Atthesametime,downside
demandriskspredominate,asfearspersistabouttherateofglobaleconomic
recovery,contagioneffectsofthedebtcrisisintheEuropeanUnion,andotherfiscal
issuesfacingnationalgovernments.Onthesupplyside,theremaybedownward
pricepressureifLibyaisabletorampupoilproductionandexportssoonerthan
anticipated.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.EIAexpectsthatworldcrudeoil
andliquidfuelsconsumptionwillcontinuegrowingfromitsrecordhighlevelof87.1
millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2010andreach88.4millionbbl/don2011and89.8
millionbbl/din2012(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Consumptionin
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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OECDcountriesisprojectedtodeclineinboth2011and2012,whileChinaandother
emergingeconomiesaccountforallprojectedoilconsumptiongrowththrough2012.
NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECliquidfuelsproductionwillgrowby
0.49millionbbl/din2011and0.85millionbbl/dtoanaverageof53.1millionbbl/din
2012(NonOPECCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProductionGrowthChart).Thelargest
sourcesofexpectedgrowthinnonOPECoilproductionovertheforecastperiodare
Brazil,Canada,China,Colombia,Kazakhstan,andtheUnitedStates,withaverage
annualgrowthineachcountryofover100thousandbbl/d.Incontrast,Russian,
Mexican,andNorthSeaproductionwillbelowerbytheendoftheforecastperiod.
OPECSupply.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclineby30thousand
bbl/din2011.ThisisinsharpcontrasttothelastOutlook,inwhichEIAexpectedtotal
OPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclineby360thousandbbl/d.Thesignificantchange
inthisOutlookfor2011islargelyduetoincreasedproductioninSaudiArabia,which
roseto9.9millionbbl/dinthethirdquarterofthisyear,comparedwith9.1million
bbl/dinthesecondquarter.EIAmaintainsitsassumptionthataboutonehalfof
Libyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012,contributingtothe
overallgrowthinOPECcrudeoiloutputof270thousandbbl/din2012.EIAexpects
thatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacityfellfrom4.0millionbbl/dinthe
fourthquarterof2010to2.8millionbbl/dinthefourthquarterof2011,butwill
increaseto3.5millionbbl/dbytheendof2012asLibyanproductioncapacitycomes
backonline(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPEC
noncrudeliquidsproduction,whichisnotsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpected
toincreaseby450thousandbbl/dinboth2011and2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedbyaverage
dailyconsumption)fallslightlybutremainrelativelyhighat58daysduringthe
fourthquarterof2010,57daysduringthefourthquarter2011,and56daysduringthe
fourthquarter2012(DaysofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$97perbarrelinJulyto$86perbarrelinAugustandSeptember(West
TexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).TheWTIspotpricebeganOctoberbelow
$80perbarrel.EIArevisedtheprojectedoilpricepathsdownwardfromlastmonths
Outlook.EIAexpectsthattheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoilacquisitioncostwill
averageabout$99perbarrelin2011and$98perbarrelin2012comparedwith$100
perbarreland$103perbarrelfor2011and2012,respectively,inlastmonthsOutlook.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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ThesignificantpricediscountforWTIrelativetootherU.S.andworldcrudeoilsis
expectedtocontinueuntiltransportationbottlenecksrestrictingthemovementof
crudeoiloutofthemidcontinentregionarerelieved.Consequently,theprojected
averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichaveragedalmost$2.70per
barrelbelowWTIin2010,averagesabout$7perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$10per
barrelaboveWTIin2012.
Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforDecember2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingOctober6
averaged$79perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged51percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinDecemberof$57perbarreland$110
perbarrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforDecember2010delivery
averaged$83perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged30percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$68
perbarreland$101perbarrel.
U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grewby
about410thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.
LiquidFuelsConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquid
fuelsconsumptionin2011fallsby230thousandbbl/d(1.2percent),revised
downwardfromthepreviousOutlooks170thousandbbl/d(0.9percent)declineasthe
2011U.S.realGDPgrowthforecasthasbeenloweredfortheseventhconsecutive
month.Motorgasolineconsumptionaccountsformuchoftheprojecteddeclinefor
theyear.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby90thousandbbl/d(0.5
percent)to19.1millionbbl/din2012.Projectedmotorgasolineconsumptionrisesby
40thousandbbl/d(0.5percent)ashighwaytravelincreasesmodestly,anddistillate
fuelconsumptionincreasesby30thousandbbl/d(0.7percent)asgrowthinindustrial
activityandnonpetroleumimportscontinuestoslowasaresultofcontinuingweak
economicgrowth.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther180
thousandbbl/din2011andby70thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyin
unconventionalshaleformations.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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TherapidgrowthinU.S.ethanolproductionsincethemid2000sisprojectedtoslow
withtotalproductionaveraging900thousandbbl/din2011and910thousandbbl/din
2012.Assumingethanolnetexportsaverageroughly40thousandbbl/dnextyear,
EIAexpectsthat870thousandbbl/dofethanolwillbeblendedintogasolinein2012,
whichissufficienttomeettherequirementsoftherenewablefuelsstandard(RFS).
TheexpirationoftheFederalmotorfuelsexcisetaxcreditforethanolblendingis
expectedtohavelittleeffectonethanolblendinglevels,asethanolproducersdonot
currentlyappeartobecapturingmuchofthevalueofthecredit.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto46percentin2011beforerisingslightlyto47percentin2012.
U.S.CrudeOilandPetroleumProductInventories.Commercialcrudeoilinventory
levelsendedSeptember2011atanestimated336millionbarrels,26millionbarrels
belowlastyearbut7millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious5yearaverageforthat
month.Commercialcrudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndownto317millionbarrels
bytheendof2012,closetotheir5yearaverage.
TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofSeptember2011wereanestimated214
millionbarrels,down5millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut6millionbarrelsabovethe
previous5yearaverageforthatmonth.DistillatefueloilstocksendedSeptember
2011atanestimated157millionbarrels,down10millionbarrelsfromthesametime
lastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverage.Projectedtotal
motorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesaverageabout3millionbarrelsand8million
barrelshigher,respectively,thantheirprevious5yearaveragesattheendof2012.
TheNortheastHomeHeatingOilReserve,whichwasemptiedearlierthisyear
becauseofthemovetolowsulfurheatingoilinseveralnortheastStatesnextyear,is
expectedtoberestockedwith650,000barrelsthismonthand350,000barrelsnext
month.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailprice,whichaveraged$2.78pergallonin2010,willincreasetoan
averageof$3.52pergallonin2011,andaverage$3.43pergallonin2012.Theincrease
inretailpricesin2011reflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesin
theaverageU.S.refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesale
gasolinepricesandtheaveragecostofcrudeoil).TheaverageU.S.refinerygasoline
marginincreasesfrom$0.34pergallonin2010,to$0.51pergallonin2011,then
declinesto$0.43pergallonin2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.80pergallonin2011,and$3.73pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.39pergallonin2010
to$0.64pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.56pergallonin2012.
NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.Projectednaturalgasconsumptionincreasesbyan
average1.2billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011and0.5Bcf/din2012,withgrowth
intheelectricpowerandindustrialsectorsdrivingtheincreases.Projectednatural
gasconsumptionforelectricitygenerationincreasesby0.36Bcf/dand0.37Bcf/din
2011and2012,respectively.EIAexpectsconsumptionintheindustrialsectortorise
from18.1Bcf/dto18.5Bcf/din2011and18.6Bcf/din2012,astheprojectednatural
gasweightedindustrialproductionindexalsocontinuestorisebutataslowingrate.
Naturalgasconsumptionforthethirdquarterof2011averagedanestimated57.9
Bcf/d,withconsumptionintheelectricpowersectormakingupalmosthalfofthe
total.Therewereanestimated942coolingdegreedaysforthethirdquarter2011,
about22percentmorethanthe30yearnormal,andabovethe930coolingdegree
daysfortherecordbreakingheatofthethirdquarterof2010.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.EIAexpectsmarketednaturalgas
productiontoaverage66.0Bcf/din2011,a4.2Bcf/d(6.7percent)increaseover2010.
Theentiretyofthisgrowthiscomingfromincreasesinonshoreproductioninthe
lower48States,whichwillmorethanoffsetasteepyearoveryeardeclineofover0.9
Bcf/d(15percent)intheFederalGulfofMexico(GOM)andasmalldeclineinAlaska.
EIAexpectsthatoverallproductionwillcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslower
pace,increasing1.4Bcf/d(2.1percent)toanaverageof67.4Bcf/d.
Drillingactivityhasbeenresilientdespitelowernaturalgasspotandfuturesprices.
AccordingtoBakerHughes,theSeptember30rigcountwas923activedrillingrigs
targetingnaturalgas,upfromthisyearslowof866onMay20.Ifdrillingcontinues
toincrease,productioncouldgrowmorethanexpectedin2012.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.8percentto8.6Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.1percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2
Bcf/din2010to0.9Bcf/din2011andto0.7Bcf/din2012.Pipelinegrossexportsto
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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MexicoandCanadaareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and4.2Bcf/din2012,
comparedwith3.1Bcf/din2010.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnSeptember30,2011,workingnaturalgasinstorage
stoodat3,409Bcf,91Bcfbelowthe2010endofSeptemberlevel(U.S.Working
NaturalGasinStorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylower
thanlastyear,willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injection
season,reaching3.77TcfattheendofOctober2011.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$3.90perMMBtuin
September2011,15centslowerthantheAugust2011average(HenryHubNatural
GasPriceChart).EIAexpectsthatHenryHubspotpriceswillfallfurtherinOctober,
beforerisingabove$4perMMBtuinDecember.ThismonthsOutlooklowersthe2011
forecastby5centsto$4.15perMMBtu,24centslessthanthe2010average.Although
theaverage2011spotnaturalgaspriceislowerthanthe2010average,theforecast
priceoverthewinter201112ishigherthanlastwintersaverage.LastyeartheHenry
Hubspotpricehitalowof$3.43permillionBtuinOctober2010.EIAexpectsthis
wintersheatingseasonwillstartoutwithanaverageHenryHubspotpriceof$3.78
permillionBtuinOctober2011.EIAexpectstheHenryHubpricein2012toaverage
$4.32perMMBtu.
NaturalgasfuturespricesforDecember2011delivery(forthe5dayperiodending
October6,2011)averaged$3.93perMMBtu,andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas34
percent(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).Thelowerandupperboundsforthe
95percentconfidenceintervalforDecember2011contractsare$3.13perMMBtuand
$4.93perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theDecember2010naturalgasfutures
contractaveraged$4.07perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged39percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.09
perMMBtuand$5.37perMMBtu.
Coal
U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionforelectricitygeneration
willdeclineby19millionshorttons(MMst)(1.9percent)in2011,asthegrowthin
totalelectricitygenerationof0.6percentissatisfiedbyincreasesingenerationfrom
naturalgas(1.2percent)andhydropower(23percent).Projectedincreasesin
generationfromnaturalgasandnuclear,combinedwithlowerelectricity
consumption,contributetoanadditional3.9percentdeclineinelectricpowersector
coalconsumptionin2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby1.5percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionintheWesternregionis
projectedtodecline,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregions
increasesslightly.EIAexpectscoalproductiontodeclinebynearly24MMst(2.2
percent)in2012asdomesticconsumptionandexportsfall(U.S.AnnualCoal
ProductionChart)andinventoriesatelectricpowerplantsdecline
(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocksChart).
U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout35percentduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwith2010.Exportsof54MMstduringthefirsthalfof2011werethe
highestsince1982.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevatedoverthesecond
halfof2011,reachinganannualtotalof99MMst.ForecastU.S.coalexportsfallback
toabout86MMstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexportingcountries
recoversfromdisruptions.ThestrongglobaldemandforcoaloutsidetheUnited
Statesalsocontributedtoa15percentdeclineinU.S.coalimportsin2010(to19.4
MMst)despiteanincreaseindomesticconsumption.EIAexpectsthelowerlevelof
U.S.coalimportstocontinue,withimportsbelow20MMstin2011and2012.U.S.
coalimportsaveragedabout31MMstannuallyfrom2004through2009.
U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Expecteddeclinesinconsumption
andstabletransportationcostscontributetoaflatteningoftheelectricpowersector
coalpricein2012.Theprojectedaveragedeliveredcoalpricetotheelectricpower
sector,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,is$2.39perMMBtuforboth2011
and2012.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Lastwinter,heatingdegreedaysduringthefourth
quarterof2010intheSouthAtlanticCensusregion,wherethemajorityofhouseholds
heatusingelectricityasanenergysource,were19percenthigherthannormal.This
Outlookassumesthattemperaturesinthisregionduringthefourthquarterof2011
willreturntonearnormallevels.ThisreductioninSouthAtlanticheatingdemand
contributestotheoveralldeclineof2.6percentforresidentialelectricityconsumption
intheregionduring2011.
Growthinthetotalindustrialproductionindexslowsfrom3.7percentin2011to2.0
percentin2012.Theslowingpaceofindustrialoutputgrowthnextyearcontributes
toslowinggrowthofretailsalesofelectricitytotheindustrialsectorfrom1.4percent
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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in2011to0.7percentin2012.EIAexpectsthattotalconsumptionofelectricityduring
2011willgrowby0.4percentfromlastyearslevelfollowedbyadeclineof0.5
percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).
U.S.ElectricityGeneration.TotalgenerationintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtofallby
62,000megawatthoursperday(0.5percent)in2012fromthelevelduring2011.
Hydroelectricgenerationshouldreturntomorenormallevels,bringingitsshareof
totalgenerationdownfrom7.4percentin2011to6.5percentnextyear.Incontrast,
favorablenaturalgaspricesandadditionstorenewablegenerationcapacityduring
2012shouldboostthesharesprovidedbythesetwoenergysourcesby0.9and0.5
percentagepoints,respectively(U.S.ElectricityGenerationbyFuel,allSectorsChart).
U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Afterrelativelymodestgrowthof0.6percentduring
2010,EIAexpectsrisingcoalpricesforelectricitygenerationtopushretailresidential
electricitypricesupby1.9percentthisyear.Asfuelcostsmoderateduringthesecond
halfofthisyearandintonextyear,growthinresidentialpricesshouldslowto0.9
percentduring2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).
RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions
U.S.Renewables.Ledbyconventionalhydropower,thetotalsupplyofrenewablesis
projectedtogrowabout14percentfrom2010to2011.EIAexpectstotalrenewable
energysupplytoremainflatin2012asthedeclineinhydropoweroffsetsgrowthin
otherrenewableenergysupply.
BecauseofhighlevelsofprecipitationinregionssuchasthePacificNorthwest,2011
promisestobeanabundantyearforhydropowergeneration(growthof0.57trillion
Btuor23percent)thebestyearsince1999.EIAassumesareturntonormalsnow
andrainfalllevelsin2012withhydropowergenerationfallingby0.38trillionBtu(12
percent).
Windenergyisprojectedtoaccountfor39percentoftotalrenewableenergysupply
growthfrom2010to2012,withincreasesof0.24trillionBtu(26percent)in2011and
0.15trillionBtu(12percent)in2012.Thesupplyofgeothermalenergyisalso
projectedtoriseinboth2011and2012andaccountforthesecondlargestshareof
renewablesgrowth(0.20trillionBtuor20percent)from2010to2012.
Thewoodenergysupplyissecondonlytoconventionalhydropowerintermsofthe
totalenergyvalueofrenewablesources.However,muchofthewoodsupplyis
subjecttoindustrialmarketconditions,especiallyinthepulpandpaperindustry,
withnetgrowthof0.04quadrillionBtubetween2010and2012.Solarenergysupply
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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representsabout1.5percentoftotalrenewableenergysupplyandisprojectedto
growby3.9percentand9.0percentin2011and2012,respectively.
Intermsofliquidrenewablefuels,EIAprojectsthatbiodieselproductionin2011will
averageabout56thousandbbl/d(860milliongallonstotalannualproduction),
surpassingthe2011RenewableFuelStandard(RFS)BiomassBasedDieselmandateof
800milliongallons,takingadvantageofthe$1pergallonbiodieseltaxcreditwhich
expiresattheendoftheyear.RFScreditsgeneratedabovethecurrentmandatecan
bebankedandusedforcomplianceinthefollowingyearforupto20percentofthe
requirement.In2012,biodieselproductionisforecasttogrowslightlyhigherto61
thousandbbl/d(940milliongallons),justreachingthe2012RFSmandateof1.0billion
gallonsafteraccountingfor60milliongallonsof2011credits.
Ethanolproductiongrowth,whichaveraged120thousandbbl/dannuallybetween
2005and2010,isexpectedtoslow,increasingby30thousandbbl/din2011and10
thousandbbl/din2012,toanaverage910thousandbbl/din2012.Ethanolexports
reducethevolumeofethanolblendedintogasoline.Assumingethanolnetexports
averageabout40thousandbbl/dnextyear,EIAexpectsthat870thousandbbl/dof
ethanolwillbeblendedintogasolinein2012,whichissufficienttosatisfyRFS
requirements.TheexpirationoftheFederalmotorfuelsexcisetaxcreditforethanol
blendingisexpectedtohavelittleeffectonethanolblendinglevels,asethanol
producersdonotcurrentlyappeartobecapturingmuchofthevalueofthecredit.
U.S.CO2Emissions.EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsincreasedby
3.9percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossil
fuelCO2emissionsfallby0.7percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhigher
naturalgasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.
Increasesinhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011also
helptomitigateemissionsgrowth.FossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012fallbyalmost1
percentasexpecteddeclinesincoalemissionsmorethanoutweightheincreasesin
emissionsfrompetroleumandnaturalgas.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
11
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending October 6, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Forecast
Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
Jan 2012
4.50
Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
Crude oil
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending October 6, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Forecast
20
15
10
0
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Total consumption
90
7.0
6.0
85
5.0
80
4.0
Annual growth
75
3.0
2.0
70
1.0
65
0.0
-1.0
60
-2.0
55
-3.0
2004
2005
2006
China
2007
2008
2009
United States
2010
2011
2012
Other Countries
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*
2011
Non-OECD Asia
2012
Other
Forecast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010
2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea
2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC
2011
0.6
2010
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Norway
Mexico
United Kingdom
Malaysia
Syria
Gabon
Australia
Egypt
Sudan
India
Oman
Azerbaijan
Russia
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Colombia
China
Canada
United States
-0.4
Forecast
100
80
60
2
40
1
20
0
-20
-1
-40
-2
-60
-3
-80
-4
2008-Q1
-100
2009-Q1
2010-Q1
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)
2010
2012
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total production
(line chart)
9.00
8.75
1.00
8.50
0.90
8.25
0.80
8.00
0.70
7.75
0.60
7.50
0.50
7.25
0.40
7.00
0.30
6.75
0.20
6.50
0.10
6.25
0.00
6.00
2009
Crude oil
Fuel ethanol
Total Production
2010
-0.10
2011
2012
Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus
Biodiesel
Forecast
Forecast
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2009
2010
Motor gasoline
Other
2011
Jet fuel
Total consumption
Distillate fuel
Forecast
Forecast
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total consumption
(line chart)
100
90
3.5
80
3.0
70
2.5
60
2.0
50
1.5
40
1.0
30
0.5
20
0.0
10
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-10
2009
2010
Electric power
Industrial
Total consumption
2011
2012
Storage level
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total consumption
(line chart)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009
2010
2011
Electric power
Coke plants
Total consumption
Forecast
Total production
(line chart)
100
95
100
90
80
85
80
60
75
40
70
20
65
60
55
-20
50
-40
45
40
-60
2009
2010
2011
Western region
Appalachian region
Total production
Forecast
2012
Interior region
Forecast
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec.
2010
Total consumption
(line chart)
13,000
700
12,000
600
11,000
500
10,000
400
9,000
300
8,000
200
7,000
100
6,000
5,000
-100
4,000
-200
3,000
-300
2009
2010
2011
Residential
Industrial
Total consumption
2012
14
13
Forecast
36%
12
11
30%
10
9
24%
8
7
18%
Annual growth
6
10.3%
12%
4
4.2%
3
2
5.7%
5.4%
3.2%
2.6%
2.4%
0.9%
6%
2.2%
0.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0%
1
0
-1.6%
-6%
-1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Forecast
12,000
10,000
8,000
50.8%
49.8%
49.6%
48.5%
49.0%
48.2%
44.4%
44.9%
43.6%
42.6%
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear
6,000
4,000
16.7%
17.9%
18.8%
21.6%
20.1%
21.4%
23.3%
23.8%
23.9%
24.8%
Hydropower
Renewables
Other Sources
2,000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Forecast
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
2009
2010
All Fossil Fuels
Coal
2011
Petroleum
2012
Natural Gas
2012
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal
1000
800
600
400
200
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
Pacific
WEST
WA
MIDWEST
ND
MT
OR
Pacific
NV
CA
West
North
Central
SD
W
ID
Mountain
CO
NORTHEAST
MN
NE
VT
W
IA
MO
KS
UT
IL
Middle
Atlantic
PA
IN
WV
NM
AZ
Pacific
HI
VA
KY
OK
TX
EastTN
AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
South
Atlantic
GA
SC
LEGEND
REGION
Division
State
FL
SOUTH
ME
New
NY England
East
MI
North
Central OH
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- October 2011
Winter of
Fuel / Region
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10 Avg.05-10 10-11
Natural Gas
Northeast
Consumption (mcf**)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Heating Oil
U.S. Average
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Electricity
Northeast
Consumption (kwh***)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
Forecast
11-12
% Change
75.7
16.35
1,238
76.5
14.74
1,128
77.0
15.17
1,168
82.5
15.82
1,306
77.8
13.32
1,036
77.9
15.09
1,175
82.7
12.65
1,047
81.7
13.25
1,083
-1.2
4.7
3.4
77.4
13.46
1,042
79.8
11.06
882
83.3
11.39
949
86.0
11.46
986
83.8
9.42
789
82.1
11.33
930
85.1
9.16
780
83.9
9.29
779
-1.4
1.3
-0.1
51.1
16.49
843
51.9
13.57
704
50.7
14.16
718
53.7
14.05
755
60.7
11.53
700
53.6
13.87
744
55.7
11.02
614
53.6
12.17
653
-3.6
10.4
6.4
50.3
12.96
651
50.8
11.20
569
53.0
11.31
599
50.5
10.86
548
52.3
9.92
518
51.4
11.24
577
51.7
9.61
497
53.0
9.43
499
2.4
-1.9
0.5
64.2
14.57
936
65.5
12.35
809
67.2
12.71
854
69.1
12.86
889
69.3
10.83
751
67.1
12.64
848
69.6
10.42
725
69.0
10.79
744
-0.9
3.5
2.6
616.7
2.44
1,505
624.0
2.42
1,513
633.9
3.33
2,108
678.7
2.65
1,801
643.5
2.85
1,833
639.4
2.74
1,752
679.7
3.38
2,300
671.2
3.71
2,493
-1.2
9.8
8.4
8,623
0.133
1,144
8,680
0.139
1,206
8,722
0.144
1,258
9,113
0.151
1,379
8,762
0.152
1,334
8,780
0.144
1,264
9,116
0.155
1,414
9,044
0.154
1,392
-0.8
-0.8
-1.6
9,959
0.081
802
10,155
0.085
866
10,461
0.089
934
10,641
0.098
1,038
10,511
0.098
1,034
10,345
0.090
935
10,586
0.105
1,109
10,499
0.105
1,105
-0.8
0.5
-0.4
8,402
0.092
774
8,423
0.096
810
8,336
0.098
820
8,669
0.109
942
9,189
0.103
950
8,604
0.100
859
8,829
0.105
928
8,633
0.106
912
-2.2
0.5
-1.8
7,612
0.097
736
7,641
0.102
782
7,835
0.104
812
7,610
0.106
810
7,762
0.111
865
7,692
0.104
801
7,718
0.113
871
7,815
0.115
895
1.3
1.6
2.8
8,109
0.096
782
8,155
0.101
824
8,196
0.104
853
8,372
0.112
938
8,629
0.110
952
8,292
0.105
870
8,475
0.114
962
8,370
0.114
956
-1.2
0.7
-0.6
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- October 2011
Winter of
Fuel / Region
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10 Avg.05-10 10-11
Propane
Northeast
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
778.6
2.30
1,790
786.1
2.35
1,849
793.6
2.93
2,324
846.6
2.84
2,405
796.6
2.98
2,376
800.3
2.68
2,149
846.5
3.23
2,734
836.8
3.56
2,979
-1.1
10.2
8.9
778.7
1.81
1,407
803.4
1.79
1,440
842.7
2.23
1,883
864.3
2.08
1,795
848.6
1.97
1,674
827.6
1.98
1,640
857.7
2.12
1,817
846.8
2.22
1,880
-1.3
4.8
3.5
10,753
5,874
715
2,592
10,476
6,282
706
2,490
10,796
5,679
729
2,665
10,851
5,508
742
2,672
0.5
-3.0
1.7
0.2
17,751
444
2,069
4,663
17,919
529
2,152
4,384
17,713
409
2,035
4,736
17,760
384
1,994
4,772
0.3
-6.2
-2.0
0.8
13,298
873
2,102
24,977
13,525
1,007
2,313
23,825
13,248
824
2,014
25,494
13,269
768
1,902
26,057
0.2
-6.8
-5.6
2.2
14,471
281
909
7,657
14,521
310
935
7,395
14,607
272
890
7,745
14,753
261
881
7,848
1.0
-4.1
-1.1
1.3
56,273
7,471
5,795
39,889
56,442
8,129
6,106
38,093
56,363
7,184
5,669
40,641
56,633
6,920
5,519
41,349
0.5
-3.7
-2.6
1.7
4,889
5,657
2,930
3,048
3,960
4,907
5,517
2,518
2,990
3,770
5,257
5,756
2,663
3,016
3,950
5,185
5,663
2,533
3,105
3,888
-1.4
-1.6
-4.9
3.0
-1.6
Heating degree-days
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
U.S. Average
Forecast
11-12
% Change
4,744
5,145
2,373
2,919
3,586
4,804
5,334
2,401
2,946
3,657
4,849
5,620
2,337
3,119
3,746
5,252
5,827
2,550
2,920
3,904
Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel
as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). Per
household consumption based on an average of EIA 2001 and 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and
projected heating degree-days.
* Prices include taxes
** thousand cubic feet
*** kilowatthour
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................
5.49
5.40
5.46
5.54
5.57
5.61
5.60
5.84
5.77
5.75
5.69
5.69
5.47
5.65
5.72
57.93
58.56
59.28
60.66
61.05
62.98
63.61
64.44
63.78
64.15
64.42
64.93
59.12
63.03
64.32
Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................
265
265
278
277
274
258
267
270
272
251
257
265
1,085
1,069
1,045
Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................
18.87
19.15
19.47
19.23
19.09
18.75
18.97
19.01
19.02
18.90
19.16
19.11
19.18
18.95
19.05
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
82.95
54.38
57.90
68.99
83.90
56.47
57.92
70.86
84.01
56.26
58.91
71.62
65.99
67.23
67.69
Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................
265
247
286
250
255
242
284
252
264
226
259
248
1,048
1,033
997
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................
10.61
10.02
12.01
9.92
10.60
10.14
11.96
10.03
10.65
10.11
11.64
10.14
10.64
10.69
10.64
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
1.76
1.95
1.79
1.83
2.04
2.26
2.07
1.94
2.05
2.24
2.00
2.02
7.33
8.30
8.31
25.71
23.15
24.59
24.62
25.93
23.14
24.69
24.80
26.26
23.12
24.22
24.97
98.07
98.56
98.56
75.89
75.34
74.06
81.69
93.98
108.13
98.98
94.33
98.00
98.00
98.00
98.00
76.72
98.91
98.00
4.79
4.07
4.11
3.67
4.06
4.10
4.03
3.71
3.83
3.85
3.90
4.12
4.15
3.97
3.93
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.41
2.42
2.36
2.43
2.41
2.37
2.33
2.26
2.39
2.39
12,938
2.2
13,059
3.3
13,140
3.5
13,216
3.1
13,228
2.2
13,261
1.5
13,301
1.2
13,347
1.0
13,415
1.4
13,488
1.7
13,553
1.9
13,628
2.1
13,088
3.0
13,284
1.5
13,521
1.8
110.4
0.6
110.8
1.1
111.2
1.4
111.7
1.6
112.4
1.8
113.1
2.1
113.7
2.3
114.2
2.2
114.4
1.8
114.5
1.2
114.9
1.1
115.4
1.0
111.0
1.2
113.3
2.1
114.8
1.3
9,923
-0.3
10,058
1.0
10,114
3.0
10,152
3.5
10,183
2.6
10,208
1.5
10,213
1.0
10,264
1.1
10,315
1.3
10,380
1.7
10,403
1.9
10,427
1.6
10,062
1.8
10,217
1.5
10,381
1.6
85.0
2.2
86.9
7.5
88.1
7.2
89.0
6.6
90.6
6.6
90.9
4.6
91.6
3.9
92.1
3.5
92.7
2.3
93.5
2.8
94.3
3.0
95.2
3.3
87.3
5.8
91.3
4.6
93.9
2.9
2,311
12
422
445
62
930
1,665
68
2,285
33
517
432
77
942
1,624
77
2,264
37
540
348
98
776
1,632
77
4,460
1,455
4,503
1,484
4,534
1,238
Energy Consumption
Energy Prices
Macroeconomic
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2nd
2011
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
78.64
75.28
75.89
77.79
74.32
75.34
76.05
73.32
74.06
85.10
81.03
81.69
93.50
94.23
93.98
102.22
108.72
108.13
89.72
100.11
98.98
84.00
95.29
94.33
88.00
99.00
98.00
88.00
99.00
98.00
88.00
99.00
98.00
88.00
99.00
98.00
79.40
75.87
76.72
92.36
99.66
98.91
88.00
99.00
98.00
211
209
205
218
220
212
210
215
204
227
240
234
267
286
275
309
316
305
299
306
298
269
291
286
275
291
285
283
291
280
279
289
279
268
288
282
217
221
215
286
300
288
276
290
283
210
172
219
170
214
166
238
182
287
218
322
246
306
241
292
232
295
232
292
229
290
228
290
230
220
172
302
233
292
230
271
277
285
293
281
286
303
292
272
277
294
281
288
294
315
310
329
335
363
359
380
385
401
391
363
369
387
369
336
341
372
370
340
345
375
373
350
356
375
363
348
353
372
363
334
339
372
371
278
283
299
296
352
358
380
369
343
349
373
371
4.79
5.30
5.15
4.07
4.45
4.32
4.11
4.41
4.28
3.67
3.91
3.80
4.06
4.31
4.18
4.10
4.50
4.37
4.03
4.25
4.12
3.71
4.03
3.92
3.83
4.31
4.18
3.85
4.37
4.24
3.90
4.39
4.26
4.12
4.74
4.60
4.15
4.52
4.39
3.97
4.27
4.15
3.93
4.45
4.32
6.51
9.34
10.59
4.98
9.26
12.55
5.07
9.64
15.49
4.89
8.66
10.56
5.41
8.74
9.97
5.13
9.14
11.95
5.15
9.80
16.12
5.37
9.44
11.21
5.64
9.13
10.34
5.28
9.30
12.24
5.32
9.89
16.36
5.95
9.92
12.00
5.40
9.15
11.19
5.27
9.14
11.05
5.56
9.48
11.53
Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84
2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.41
4.94
18.32
23.55
2.42
4.91
18.33
23.49
2.36
4.78
17.81
22.89
2.43
5.01
18.19
22.90
2.41
4.95
18.38
22.82
2.37
4.94
18.32
22.80
2.33
5.25
18.28
23.17
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.39
4.92
17.67
22.72
2.39
5.03
18.30
22.93
6.53
9.87
10.88
6.75
10.30
11.90
7.17
10.71
12.02
6.67
10.06
11.50
6.68
10.01
11.24
6.85
10.38
11.97
7.29
10.79
12.23
6.79
10.18
11.70
6.62
10.03
11.21
6.86
10.47
12.15
7.28
10.99
12.46
6.78
10.32
11.82
6.79
10.26
11.58
6.91
10.36
11.80
6.89
10.47
11.91
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.53
65.50
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.18
4.27
12.90
86.93
21.52
9.93
3.58
2.96
3.52
1.52
66.33
35.57
29.74
5.83
13.33
4.41
13.01
87.84
21.74
10.00
3.78
2.91
3.50
1.55
67.67
36.30
30.01
6.29
13.43
4.55
13.39
89.41
53.04
51.77
52.27
53.11
45.53
19.16
0.31
2.22
14.35
4.18
5.31
44.86
4.73
0.78
10.59
10.22
18.54
90.40
46.10
19.11
0.31
2.20
14.34
4.58
5.56
44.62
4.72
0.78
10.84
10.51
17.77
90.73
46.10
19.18
0.24
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.97
4.29
0.73
9.19
9.93
16.83
87.08
45.74
18.95
0.30
2.21
14.34
4.49
5.44
42.66
4.54
0.76
9.88
10.23
17.25
88.40
45.68
19.05
0.31
2.18
14.21
4.48
5.45
44.16
4.62
0.76
10.45
10.45
17.89
89.84
-0.42
0.04
0.07
-0.31
-0.14
0.41
0.69
0.96
0.52
0.21
0.35
1.08
-0.05
-0.03
0.23
0.15
0.16
0.04
0.35
0.56
0.00
0.16
0.27
0.43
1,074
2,651
1,087
2,626
1,039
2,559
1,068
2,660
1,039
2,617
1,039
2,559
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11
21.34
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.30
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.89
86.64
21.05
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.54
66.18
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
12.97
87.23
21.75
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.51
65.95
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.27
4.39
12.95
87.70
21.43
9.77
3.60
2.99
3.61
1.46
65.99
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.03
87.42
21.18
9.98
3.40
2.98
3.34
1.48
64.95
34.67
29.20
5.48
13.27
4.33
12.67
86.13
21.61
9.90
3.66
2.95
3.50
1.60
67.35
36.24
30.07
6.17
13.38
4.48
13.25
88.96
21.83
10.08
3.66
2.92
3.62
1.54
67.00
36.05
29.90
6.14
13.38
4.47
13.10
88.83
21.85
9.95
3.73
2.94
3.70
1.54
67.37
36.01
29.79
6.22
13.60
4.50
13.26
89.22
21.80
10.04
3.76
2.92
3.55
1.54
67.53
36.09
29.82
6.28
13.51
4.55
13.37
89.33
21.61
10.02
3.80
2.91
3.32
1.56
67.83
36.48
30.13
6.35
13.37
4.56
13.42
89.44
21.70
10.01
3.84
2.89
3.42
1.54
67.95
36.60
30.29
6.31
13.25
4.58
13.52
89.65
51.60
51.62
51.51
52.35
52.10
51.46
52.72
52.78
53.21
53.24
52.96
45.26
19.15
0.24
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.03
4.16
0.73
9.18
10.08
16.88
86.28
46.57
19.47
0.24
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
41.28
4.39
0.73
9.04
9.68
17.44
87.86
46.68
19.23
0.24
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.86
4.40
0.75
9.79
10.08
16.84
88.54
46.19
19.09
0.30
2.25
14.18
4.86
5.52
41.17
4.47
0.74
9.28
10.21
16.47
87.37
44.50
18.75
0.30
2.17
14.13
3.92
5.24
42.88
4.40
0.75
9.99
10.40
17.34
87.38
45.83
18.97
0.30
2.23
14.54
4.43
5.36
43.42
4.65
0.77
9.99
10.00
18.00
89.25
46.43
19.01
0.30
2.20
14.52
4.77
5.62
43.13
4.65
0.77
10.24
10.29
17.19
89.56
46.32
19.01
0.31
2.18
14.24
5.02
5.56
42.87
4.54
0.75
9.90
10.44
17.24
89.20
44.75
18.90
0.31
2.12
13.90
4.14
5.38
44.28
4.47
0.75
10.44
10.63
17.99
89.02
-0.21
0.31
0.53
0.63
0.73
0.14
-0.02
0.84
0.27
0.15
-0.48
-0.05
-0.42
-0.08
1.76
1.26
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.51
0.09
0.14
0.73
0.03
-0.02
-0.04
-0.02
1,135
2,740
1,068
2,660
1,043
2,622
1,081
2,668
1,085
2,672
1,039
2,617
1,036
2,616
1,115
2,749
2010
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69
16.48
3.58
2.96
9.93
16.70
3.78
2.91
10.00
5.28
0.73
3.04
1.05
0.46
4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46
4.98
0.73
2.86
0.94
0.45
5.20
0.73
2.99
1.02
0.46
4.22
1.98
1.10
0.24
4.32
2.03
1.14
0.24
4.61
2.13
1.32
0.28
4.43
2.05
1.20
0.26
4.40
2.07
1.18
0.25
13.51
1.19
1.80
10.14
0.21
0.38
13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38
13.25
1.09
1.83
9.96
0.21
0.38
13.18
1.04
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.39
13.33
1.03
1.68
10.23
0.21
0.39
13.43
1.15
1.81
10.09
0.21
0.38
1.51
0.88
0.35
0.24
1.50
0.88
0.35
0.23
1.50
0.88
0.35
0.22
1.51
0.88
0.36
0.23
1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26
1.50
0.87
0.37
0.20
1.51
0.88
0.35
0.23
9.15
0.55
4.47
0.99
1.02
0.65
0.42
9.24
0.55
4.50
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45
9.29
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48
9.33
0.56
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50
9.36
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52
8.88
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.34
9.00
0.52
4.41
1.00
1.01
0.64
0.38
9.30
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.64
0.49
2.60
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46
2.56
0.69
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.57
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.55
0.67
0.30
0.21
0.47
2.57
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
51.46
52.72
52.78
53.21
53.24
52.96
53.04
51.77
52.27
53.11
5.48
56.93
6.17
58.89
6.14
58.93
6.22
59.43
6.28
59.52
6.35
59.31
6.31
59.35
5.39
57.16
5.83
58.10
6.29
59.40
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58
16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58
16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70
16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89
16.36
3.60
2.99
9.77
16.37
3.40
2.98
9.98
16.51
3.66
2.95
9.90
16.67
3.66
2.92
10.08
16.61
3.73
2.94
9.95
16.72
3.76
2.92
10.04
16.72
3.80
2.91
10.02
16.74
3.84
2.89
10.01
4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47
4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46
4.81
0.79
2.75
0.81
0.46
4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45
4.92
0.78
2.82
0.88
0.45
4.91
0.70
2.83
0.93
0.45
5.06
0.72
2.92
0.96
0.46
5.01
0.71
2.87
0.97
0.45
5.07
0.73
2.89
1.00
0.46
5.21
0.73
3.02
1.01
0.46
5.25
0.73
3.02
1.03
0.46
Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................
4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30
4.61
2.11
1.35
0.29
4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25
4.65
2.18
1.30
0.28
4.52
2.10
1.24
0.27
4.26
1.94
1.12
0.27
4.42
2.09
1.15
0.26
4.53
2.07
1.30
0.26
4.59
2.14
1.30
0.26
4.44
2.12
1.18
0.25
13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41
13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39
13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38
13.27
1.06
1.66
10.17
0.21
0.39
13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39
13.27
1.00
1.64
10.24
0.21
0.38
13.38
1.00
1.69
10.30
0.21
0.39
13.38
1.11
1.73
10.16
0.21
0.39
13.60
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.38
1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27
1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26
1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25
1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25
1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24
1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10
1.53
0.87
0.37
0.23
1.49
0.86
0.35
0.23
8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35
8.84
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.34
8.99
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.36
9.00
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.34
8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36
8.73
0.47
4.33
0.99
0.99
0.58
0.32
9.23
0.59
4.48
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41
Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................
2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.59
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.56
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.54
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51
2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49
2.51
0.65
0.31
0.20
0.47
51.60
51.62
51.51
52.35
52.10
5.11
56.71
5.37
56.99
5.57
57.08
5.49
57.85
5.54
57.64
2010
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77
29.74
30.01
6.31
5.39
5.83
6.29
36.48
36.60
35.15
35.57
36.30
33.33
33.64
33.80
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76
32.76
33.47
3.51
3.51
3.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99
3.02
3.46
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78
1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20
1.27
1.70
0.48
3.65
2.63
2.53
0.07
2.19
0.85
9.90
2.60
2.20
30.07
29.90
29.79
29.82
30.13
30.29
5.11
5.37
5.57
5.49
5.54
5.48
6.17
6.14
6.22
6.28
6.35
34.51
35.02
35.71
35.35
35.32
34.67
36.24
36.05
36.01
36.09
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.55
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.41
1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.55
0.17
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.42
1.27
1.70
0.48
3.65
2.63
2.55
0.07
2.19
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.50
32.71
33.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.35
0.06
0.00
2.43
2.81
3.31
2010
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23.11
2.15
2.07
18.87
23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15
23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47
23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23
23.37
2.25
2.03
19.09
22.97
2.17
2.05
18.75
23.31
2.23
2.11
18.97
23.34
2.20
2.11
19.01
23.31
2.18
2.10
19.01
23.14
2.12
2.12
18.90
23.48
2.22
2.09
19.16
23.43
2.20
2.10
19.11
6.12
2.52
6.36
2.63
6.51
2.73
6.45
2.72
6.38
2.66
6.61
2.77
6.63
2.83
6.62
2.81
6.59
2.81
6.83
2.92
6.86
2.98
Europe .......................................................................
15.03
14.98
15.65
15.58
14.92
14.87
15.31
15.30
14.99
14.65
4.21
2.88
4.16
2.85
4.39
3.00
4.40
3.01
4.47
3.04
4.40
2.99
4.65
3.17
4.65
3.16
4.54
3.07
6.96
7.37
7.82
7.25
7.08
7.74
8.40
7.57
26.86
8.74
4.82
3.23
26.61
9.18
4.07
3.29
26.35
9.04
4.36
2.99
27.94
9.79
4.57
3.23
27.85
9.28
4.86
3.39
27.52
9.99
3.92
3.38
27.69
9.99
4.43
3.10
Africa ..........................................................................
3.28
3.38
3.34
3.37
3.29
3.27
45.88
39.70
45.26
41.03
46.57
41.28
46.68
41.86
46.19
41.17
85.58
86.28
87.86
88.54
105.53
4.3
106.79
4.9
107.60
4.5
97.52
-6.4
99.77
-1.1
98.63
0.8
2010
2011
2012
23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18
23.25
2.21
2.07
18.95
23.34
2.18
2.11
19.05
6.84
2.97
6.36
2.65
6.56
2.77
6.78
2.92
15.13
15.11
15.31
15.10
14.97
4.47
3.03
4.73
3.20
4.72
3.19
4.29
2.94
4.54
3.09
4.62
3.12
7.59
8.11
8.67
7.88
7.35
7.70
8.06
28.82
10.24
4.77
3.35
28.83
9.90
5.02
3.50
28.48
10.44
4.14
3.49
28.22
10.59
4.18
3.20
29.41
10.84
4.58
3.46
26.94
9.19
4.45
3.18
27.97
9.88
4.49
3.30
28.73
10.45
4.48
3.41
3.24
3.28
3.35
3.33
3.31
3.34
3.34
3.27
3.33
44.50
42.88
45.83
43.42
46.43
43.13
46.32
42.87
44.75
44.28
45.53
44.86
46.10
44.62
46.10
40.97
45.74
42.66
45.68
44.16
87.37
87.38
89.25
89.56
89.20
89.02
90.40
90.73
87.08
88.40
89.84
108.52
4.2
109.30
3.6
109.84
2.9
110.59
2.8
111.52
2.8
112.59
3.0
113.60
3.4
114.67
3.7
115.83
3.9
107.12
4.5
110.32
3.0
114.18
3.5
96.10
0.8
97.24
-0.3
96.93
-2.8
96.36
-2.3
95.81
-0.3
95.58
-1.7
95.67
-1.3
95.73
-0.7
95.79
0.0
98.00
-1.6
96.58
-1.4
95.69
-0.9
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.49
0.64
1.65
3.20
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98
5.40
0.58
1.52
3.30
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24
5.46
0.57
1.52
3.37
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13
5.54
0.61
1.51
3.42
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54
5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23
5.61
0.58
1.46
3.57
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.21
14.81
5.60
0.51
1.28
3.81
9.04
0.33
0.24
0.24
15.45
5.84
0.57
1.40
3.87
8.72
0.00
0.15
-0.03
14.67
5.77
0.55
1.43
3.79
8.85
0.00
-0.27
0.06
14.42
5.75
0.53
1.40
3.81
9.21
0.00
0.04
0.09
15.08
5.69
0.51
1.35
3.82
9.30
0.00
0.14
0.04
15.16
5.69
0.49
1.36
3.85
8.72
0.00
0.14
-0.02
14.54
5.47
0.60
1.55
3.32
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72
5.65
0.55
1.42
3.68
8.85
0.08
0.03
0.18
14.79
5.72
0.52
1.38
3.82
9.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
14.80
1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87
1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15
1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47
1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23
1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08
1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.02
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.11
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.75
1.09
2.14
0.93
0.89
0.14
-0.46
0.00
-0.04
0.66
-0.08
0.59
-0.25
-0.03
-0.74
-0.18
-0.40
-0.28
19.00
1.05
2.14
0.92
0.89
0.13
-0.26
-0.02
-0.01
0.64
-0.09
0.63
-0.38
-0.06
-0.46
-0.09
-0.41
0.36
19.02
1.00
2.11
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.12
-0.01
0.06
0.61
-0.09
0.68
-0.33
-0.04
-0.44
-0.01
-0.32
0.30
19.02
1.02
2.20
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.01
-0.05
0.61
-0.09
0.74
-0.30
-0.01
-0.46
-0.05
-0.40
-0.47
18.90
1.05
2.21
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.07
-0.01
-0.07
0.72
-0.09
0.71
-0.22
-0.03
-0.55
-0.10
-0.42
-0.28
19.16
1.04
2.20
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.12
-0.02
-0.05
0.61
-0.09
0.70
-0.34
-0.05
-0.35
-0.10
-0.43
0.38
19.11
1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18
1.06
2.13
0.94
0.90
0.16
-0.16
0.01
-0.02
0.64
-0.10
0.68
-0.31
-0.03
-0.57
-0.07
-0.40
0.05
18.96
1.03
2.18
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.01
-0.03
0.64
-0.09
0.71
-0.30
-0.03
-0.45
-0.06
-0.39
-0.02
19.05
0.09
2.46
0.03
0.07
1.89
0.02
0.11
2.03
0.00
0.10
2.32
0.00
0.10
2.45
0.06
0.11
1.95
-0.03
0.10
1.99
0.01
0.10
2.25
0.01
0.09
2.44
0.01
0.08
1.98
0.00
0.09
2.05
0.00
0.10
2.29
0.02
0.09
2.17
0.01
0.10
2.16
0.01
0.09
2.19
0.01
8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87
9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15
9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47
8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23
8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09
8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75
8.98
1.47
3.72
0.42
2.29
18.97
8.78
1.39
3.95
0.49
2.04
19.01
8.59
1.36
3.97
0.56
1.99
19.02
8.90
1.45
3.76
0.52
2.19
18.90
9.08
1.47
3.74
0.46
2.27
19.16
8.83
1.39
4.01
0.48
2.01
19.11
8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18
8.81
1.42
3.84
0.50
2.10
18.95
8.85
1.42
3.87
0.50
2.12
19.05
................................
9.36
9.99
9.87
8.55
8.74
8.97
8.57
8.46
8.97
9.19
9.23
8.60
9.44
8.68
9.00
359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0
365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0
362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0
358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0
336.4
17.0
131.9
83.9
19.8
213.9
56.3
157.6
46.4
156.9
33.6
45.3
1,085
696
0.0
322.8
14.0
100.5
80.4
19.4
219.0
55.7
163.2
43.6
158.4
34.5
45.9
1,039
696
1.0
347.1
13.0
70.4
89.7
21.4
219.1
53.2
165.9
43.6
139.1
37.2
54.9
1,036
696
1.0
343.2
14.4
110.1
86.3
20.5
217.9
56.1
161.8
43.8
147.8
38.3
51.9
1,074
696
1.0
330.3
15.0
137.6
85.9
21.0
212.5
56.1
156.4
44.5
157.5
37.6
44.6
1,087
696
1.0
317.1
12.5
103.7
80.0
20.5
220.8
56.4
164.4
42.0
158.6
37.8
45.4
1,039
696
1.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
322.8
14.0
100.5
80.4
19.4
219.0
55.7
163.2
43.6
158.4
34.5
45.9
1,039
696
1.0
317.1
12.5
103.7
80.0
20.5
220.8
56.4
164.4
42.0
158.6
37.8
45.4
1,039
696
1.0
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20
15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91
15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03
14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38
14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78
14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72
15.45
0.16
0.26
0.98
0.74
0.62
0.00
18.21
14.67
0.17
0.38
0.93
0.67
0.57
0.00
17.40
14.42
0.16
0.33
0.95
0.49
0.63
0.00
16.97
15.08
0.17
0.25
0.97
0.65
0.76
0.00
17.89
15.16
0.17
0.25
0.95
0.72
0.76
0.00
18.02
14.54
0.17
0.37
0.95
0.65
0.62
0.00
17.32
14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38
14.79
0.17
0.31
0.97
0.63
0.65
0.00
17.53
14.80
0.17
0.30
0.96
0.63
0.69
0.00
17.55
1.03
1.06
1.10
1.08
1.03
1.06
1.09
1.05
1.00
1.02
1.05
1.04
1.07
1.06
1.03
0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22
0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97
0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13
0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46
0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80
0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78
0.74
9.22
1.55
4.60
0.56
2.63
19.30
0.43
9.11
1.42
4.44
0.59
2.46
18.45
0.53
8.84
1.40
4.20
0.59
2.42
17.98
0.82
9.17
1.46
4.32
0.58
2.56
18.91
0.76
9.25
1.50
4.40
0.56
2.61
19.08
0.42
9.13
1.41
4.37
0.58
2.45
18.36
0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45
0.63
9.05
1.46
4.39
0.56
2.50
18.59
0.63
9.10
1.44
4.32
0.58
2.51
18.58
14.32
17.59
0.81
15.66
17.57
0.89
15.65
17.59
0.89
15.06
17.55
0.86
14.69
17.70
0.83
15.22
17.74
0.86
15.82
17.74
0.89
15.05
17.74
0.85
14.76
17.74
0.83
15.39
17.74
0.87
15.50
17.74
0.87
14.90
17.74
0.84
15.18
17.57
0.86
15.20
17.73
0.86
15.14
17.74
0.85
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
218
210
227
267
309
299
269
275
283
279
268
217
286
276
278
276
269
284
304
281
286
265
270
257
279
304
272
277
288
286
272
279
311
288
294
329
326
314
311
353
329
335
377
380
365
365
400
380
385
364
364
349
355
377
363
369
335
329
320
335
362
336
341
339
333
326
331
364
340
345
348
344
336
345
379
350
356
346
342
331
347
376
348
353
333
326
319
331
361
334
339
275
274
264
276
303
278
283
352
350
337
342
373
352
358
342
336
328
339
370
343
349
60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6
55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9
55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2
55.4
49.3
74.9
6.0
28.3
213.9
56.9
49.9
75.1
6.7
30.4
219.0
56.9
51.3
74.7
6.5
29.7
219.1
57.5
50.5
73.4
6.2
30.2
217.9
55.7
50.0
71.5
6.3
29.0
212.5
57.9
50.8
74.8
6.9
30.5
220.8
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
56.9
49.9
75.1
6.7
30.4
219.0
57.9
50.8
74.8
6.9
30.5
220.8
71.8
70.2
63.3
60.8
56.4
56.3
55.7
53.2
56.1
56.1
56.4
63.3
55.7
56.4
143.8
149.0
156.2
154.1
158.8
157.6
163.2
165.9
161.8
156.4
164.4
156.2
163.2
164.4
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.28
82.95
61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.70
54.38
61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.58
57.90
63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.03
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99
63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.89
83.90
65.96
1.00
5.23
59.73
62.98
8.99
7.94
1.05
4.16
4.83
0.14
-10.45
57.51
-1.04
56.47
66.63
0.89
4.80
60.94
63.61
9.03
8.52
0.51
3.64
5.39
0.17
-9.55
59.62
-1.70
57.92
67.49
1.07
5.25
61.17
64.44
9.01
8.27
0.74
4.05
4.96
0.19
2.94
72.53
-1.67
70.86
66.80
1.04
5.20
60.57
63.78
10.25
9.34
0.91
4.47
5.78
0.19
14.70
84.45
-0.44
84.01
67.19
0.82
5.19
61.18
64.15
8.62
7.88
0.74
4.13
4.48
0.16
-11.59
57.20
-0.94
56.26
67.47
0.85
4.94
61.68
64.42
8.79
8.36
0.42
3.98
4.81
0.17
-9.27
60.13
-1.22
58.91
68.00
0.97
5.05
61.99
64.93
8.62
7.91
0.71
4.29
4.32
0.19
4.22
73.65
-2.03
71.62
61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.43
65.99
65.99
1.02
5.22
59.75
63.03
9.52
8.64
0.88
4.08
5.43
0.18
-0.08
68.56
-1.33
67.23
67.37
0.92
5.09
61.36
64.32
9.07
8.37
0.69
4.22
4.85
0.18
-0.50
68.85
-1.16
67.69
7.32
5.70
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.42
0.09
54.38
3.75
4.22
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.90
16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99
26.14
14.72
20.20
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.90
7.51
5.87
17.75
19.87
3.89
1.48
0.09
56.47
3.63
4.17
17.27
27.23
3.93
1.60
0.09
57.92
17.25
10.61
18.73
18.28
3.98
1.92
0.09
70.86
25.86
14.69
20.22
16.87
3.94
2.34
0.09
84.01
6.79
5.82
17.70
20.28
3.97
1.61
0.09
56.26
3.63
4.09
17.41
28.07
3.98
1.63
0.09
58.91
17.44
10.65
19.01
18.50
4.01
1.92
0.09
71.62
13.51
8.72
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
65.99
13.58
8.82
18.48
20.57
3.90
1.80
0.09
67.23
13.41
8.81
18.58
20.94
3.98
1.88
0.09
67.69
2,741
962
1,330
450
3,500
1,092
1,913
495
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
1,581
738
618
225
2,530
992
1,188
350
3,409
1,060
1,881
468
3,138
1,070
1,668
401
1,801
774
763
264
2,856
1,042
1,398
415
3,708
1,167
2,049
492
3,320
1,108
1,767
445
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
3,138
1,070
1,668
401
3,320
1,108
1,767
445
2010
Year
2011
1st
2012
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
4.79
5.30
4.07
4.45
4.11
4.41
3.67
3.91
4.06
4.31
4.10
4.50
4.03
4.25
3.71
4.03
3.83
4.31
3.85
4.37
3.90
4.39
4.12
4.74
4.15
4.52
3.97
4.27
3.93
4.45
14.33
12.79
9.50
9.08
12.61
10.50
9.80
9.24
10.43
10.59
15.56
15.17
12.24
11.90
18.74
14.81
14.06
9.83
10.47
12.55
17.73
18.46
16.66
16.65
24.07
17.75
18.30
13.03
11.10
15.49
14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56
13.99
11.85
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97
14.28
14.08
10.97
11.17
17.54
13.69
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.95
17.84
18.23
16.37
17.21
23.93
19.06
18.82
13.84
11.36
16.12
14.67
13.65
9.58
9.29
14.60
12.17
10.81
8.80
9.73
11.21
13.99
12.37
8.93
8.83
12.74
11.26
9.24
8.64
9.92
10.34
14.88
13.90
11.27
11.42
17.48
14.53
14.03
9.61
10.17
12.24
18.13
18.25
16.75
17.57
24.45
19.10
19.01
13.40
10.97
16.36
15.39
14.38
10.54
10.07
15.50
13.25
11.46
9.63
10.31
12.00
14.78
13.46
10.23
9.92
13.71
11.33
11.01
9.63
10.37
11.19
14.50
13.10
9.83
9.76
14.16
11.45
10.63
9.37
10.27
11.05
14.83
13.55
10.17
10.01
14.87
12.58
11.23
9.45
10.20
11.53
11.68
10.76
8.97
8.36
10.53
9.45
8.52
8.33
9.48
9.34
11.68
9.77
9.25
8.38
10.74
10.21
9.09
8.11
8.97
9.26
11.45
9.51
9.67
9.53
10.74
10.41
9.19
8.89
9.21
9.64
11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.14
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66
11.14
9.85
8.42
7.93
9.80
8.80
7.34
7.99
9.15
8.74
10.64
9.55
8.98
8.44
10.82
9.55
8.58
7.98
9.19
9.14
10.72
9.19
9.86
9.69
11.42
10.80
8.95
9.04
9.37
9.80
11.67
10.40
8.76
7.83
11.06
10.42
8.57
7.95
8.95
9.44
11.75
10.09
8.61
7.89
10.63
9.65
7.85
7.66
8.81
9.13
11.94
9.88
9.12
8.22
11.05
10.18
8.49
7.56
8.37
9.30
12.06
9.88
9.61
9.73
11.38
10.82
9.38
8.67
8.79
9.89
12.34
10.93
9.18
8.20
11.47
10.93
9.11
8.51
9.39
9.92
11.47
10.15
8.82
8.28
10.28
9.57
8.50
8.29
9.21
9.15
11.16
9.88
8.71
8.12
10.64
9.56
8.12
8.09
9.14
9.14
11.96
10.26
8.92
8.16
11.06
10.19
8.50
7.98
8.87
9.48
11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51
9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98
9.07
9.01
6.96
5.53
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07
10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89
10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.45
5.41
9.81
9.27
7.19
5.78
6.24
5.58
4.46
6.42
7.22
5.13
9.43
9.04
7.20
5.47
6.26
5.55
4.58
7.20
7.37
5.15
10.40
10.21
7.10
5.62
6.42
5.97
4.39
7.35
7.70
5.37
11.10
10.00
7.47
6.24
6.57
6.21
4.39
7.26
7.81
5.64
10.48
8.97
7.37
5.47
6.32
5.81
4.64
6.45
7.02
5.28
9.77
9.15
7.48
5.36
6.40
5.99
4.78
7.24
7.44
5.32
11.22
10.92
7.90
6.15
7.14
6.79
4.92
8.13
8.37
5.95
10.37
9.60
7.38
6.00
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40
10.21
9.65
7.24
5.79
6.37
5.75
4.42
6.94
7.45
5.27
10.80
9.95
7.58
5.87
6.63
6.23
4.69
7.31
7.71
5.56
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9
265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7
278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0
276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8
273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2
258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
3.4
27.0
17.8
9.1
232.8
267.0
81.4
38.5
147.1
1.0
3.9
22.8
14.8
8.1
249.0
269.8
85.6
40.0
144.2
1.2
4.5
22.1
15.0
7.1
253.4
272.4
81.4
38.7
152.3
-4.6
4.4
19.5
15.2
4.3
252.7
250.7
77.2
35.9
137.7
0.5
4.4
22.9
15.7
7.2
232.6
256.7
79.1
34.8
142.8
3.8
5.2
22.2
13.9
8.4
243.4
265.3
82.0
36.5
146.8
-0.2
4.8
21.4
14.2
7.2
248.4
1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5
1068.6
338.5
158.3
571.8
5.2
15.1
98.5
64.8
33.7
990.5
1045.1
319.7
145.8
579.6
-0.5
18.7
86.0
59.0
27.1
977.2
13.1
3.1
266.1
-3.8
3.3
249.1
18.1
3.2
289.4
-12.5
3.2
251.6
7.2
3.2
265.6
2.3
3.2
238.3
20.6
3.2
272.8
-4.4
3.2
252.1
7.9
3.2
263.8
-9.8
3.2
226.0
12.7
3.2
259.4
-3.7
3.2
247.9
14.9
12.7
1056.1
25.7
12.7
1028.9
7.1
12.8
997.1
4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6
5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4
5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1
5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1
5.2
235.1
14.4
1.0
13.3
254.7
5.7
223.7
12.4
0.6
11.8
241.8
6.7
265.1
12.3
0.6
11.7
284.1
6.4
233.0
12.7
0.8
11.9
252.1
6.4
244.1
13.4
1.1
12.3
263.8
6.0
207.1
12.9
0.8
12.1
226.0
6.7
240.1
12.6
0.8
11.7
259.4
6.4
228.4
13.2
1.2
12.0
247.9
21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3
24.0
957.0
51.7
3.0
48.7
1032.7
25.5
919.6
52.1
3.9
48.1
997.1
1.5
1.7
3.2
1.4
11.0
-3.5
-11.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.8
-3.8
0.0
48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0
42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
37.3
174.9
167.0
5.5
2.0
39.1
172.6
166.0
4.1
2.1
38.1
152.0
144.8
4.6
2.0
36.9
156.5
148.9
4.9
2.1
41.5
148.6
142.0
4.2
1.8
41.0
158.4
151.1
4.5
2.2
37.2
145.7
137.8
5.1
2.2
37.4
149.4
141.2
5.4
2.2
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
36.9
156.5
148.9
4.9
2.1
37.4
149.4
141.2
5.4
2.2
5.58
5.58
5.59
5.60
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.59
5.57
5.70
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.266
0.254
0.267
0.279
0.268
0.259
0.242
0.260
0.268
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.41
2.42
2.36
2.43
2.41
2.37
2.33
2.26
2.39
2.39
Discrepancy (c)
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
3rd
4th
1st
12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70
10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70
11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52
11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01
9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
12.02
10.71
7.17
2nd
2012
2010
Year
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2012
10.92
10.53
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.02
0.88
12.80
12.39
0.39
0.02
0.14
12.94
0.97
10.67
10.28
0.37
0.02
0.09
10.76
0.73
11.16
10.74
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.24
0.59
10.91
10.51
0.38
0.02
0.08
10.99
0.89
12.31
11.87
0.41
0.02
0.11
12.41
0.77
10.81
10.40
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.88
0.75
11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72
11.36
10.97
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.46
0.78
11.30
10.88
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.38
0.75
10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60
9.79
3.51
3.58
2.68
0.02
0.35
10.14
11.59
4.73
4.07
2.78
0.02
0.37
11.96
9.68
3.52
3.53
2.61
0.02
0.35
10.03
10.28
4.20
3.46
2.60
0.02
0.37
10.65
9.74
3.43
3.59
2.70
0.02
0.37
10.11
11.25
4.39
4.02
2.81
0.02
0.40
11.64
9.77
3.57
3.52
2.66
0.02
0.37
10.14
10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64
10.33
3.98
3.66
2.67
0.02
0.36
10.69
10.26
3.90
3.65
2.69
0.02
0.38
10.64
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.41
4.94
18.32
23.55
2.42
4.91
18.33
23.49
2.36
4.78
17.81
22.89
2.43
5.01
18.19
22.90
2.41
4.95
18.38
22.82
2.37
4.94
18.32
22.80
2.33
5.25
18.28
23.17
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.39
4.92
17.67
22.72
2.39
5.03
18.30
22.93
11.50
10.06
6.67
11.24
10.01
6.68
11.97
10.38
6.85
12.23
10.79
7.29
11.70
10.18
6.79
11.21
10.03
6.62
12.15
10.47
6.86
12.46
10.99
7.28
11.82
10.32
6.78
11.58
10.26
6.79
11.80
10.36
6.91
11.91
10.47
6.89
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261
114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414
150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742
122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482
145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152
116
329
456
249
910
296
562
227
353
13
3,511
147
420
615
348
1,187
406
857
327
408
13
4,729
126
346
484
268
881
286
477
232
402
15
3,517
149
417
584
334
1,070
373
554
253
447
15
4,196
119
334
456
252
865
285
510
236
358
13
3,428
144
407
569
325
1,109
385
712
321
407
13
4,393
128
350
490
274
887
296
486
238
405
15
3,569
132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975
134
375
533
299
1,005
340
618
258
401
14
3,977
135
377
525
296
983
335
566
262
404
14
3,897
123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447
120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571
137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092
119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453
123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454
119
421
486
262
860
226
503
250
432
17
3,575
135
494
555
300
957
265
582
286
478
17
4,068
123
434
489
267
824
213
461
247
451
17
3,527
126
443
496
264
792
213
448
236
426
17
3,461
121
430
494
266
858
225
493
254
432
17
3,590
133
488
545
297
966
260
550
287
479
17
4,022
120
428
484
263
832
211
468
248
447
18
3,520
125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642
125
446
507
274
858
230
498
255
447
17
3,657
125
447
505
272
863
228
490
256
446
17
3,649
76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514
77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655
83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765
76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607
75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620
76
193
541
236
399
327
445
217
234
13
2,682
81
192
554
250
404
337
461
238
245
14
2,776
75
182
528
233
373
345
423
211
229
13
2,613
75
190
531
234
368
347
420
206
217
13
2,601
76
195
544
243
401
337
446
218
229
14
2,702
81
194
555
253
412
345
469
241
247
14
2,810
74
185
535
241
382
351
429
213
230
14
2,655
78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636
77
190
541
238
388
338
437
217
232
14
2,673
76
191
541
243
391
345
441
219
231
14
2,692
342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246
312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660
371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620
318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562
345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247
312
955
1,485
747
2,173
849
1,510
693
1,022
43
9,789
365
1,117
1,727
898
2,552
1,008
1,900
851
1,133
44
11,594
325
973
1,503
768
2,082
844
1,362
689
1,086
45
9,678
351
1,062
1,613
833
2,234
933
1,422
694
1,093
46
10,280
317
970
1,495
761
2,127
847
1,449
709
1,021
43
9,741
360
1,102
1,670
875
2,491
990
1,731
848
1,136
45
11,248
324
976
1,511
778
2,105
858
1,384
700
1,084
46
9,766
336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274
337
1,023
1,582
812
2,255
908
1,554
731
1,083
45
10,329
338
1,028
1,572
812
2,240
907
1,497
738
1,084
45
10,260
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88
16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90
16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02
16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50
15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24
16.13
15.99
12.04
10.54
11.47
10.32
10.78
10.84
12.49
11.97
16.80
16.53
12.15
10.90
11.71
10.36
10.80
11.28
14.02
12.23
16.75
15.11
11.61
9.52
11.29
10.28
10.40
10.27
12.43
11.70
16.55
14.84
11.00
8.95
10.72
9.54
10.19
9.94
12.05
11.21
16.76
16.17
12.22
10.49
11.51
10.44
10.88
11.06
12.79
12.15
16.70
17.12
12.26
10.96
11.84
10.46
10.95
11.49
14.15
12.46
16.61
15.56
11.71
9.64
11.38
10.31
10.45
10.47
12.51
11.82
16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58
16.43
15.73
11.70
10.01
11.34
10.18
10.55
10.59
12.74
11.80
16.65
15.92
11.78
9.99
11.36
10.17
10.64
10.79
12.86
11.91
15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87
14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30
15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71
14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06
14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01
14.40
13.61
9.66
8.46
9.53
9.83
8.66
9.04
12.32
10.38
14.75
14.42
9.58
8.77
9.70
9.88
8.87
9.34
13.97
10.79
14.27
12.93
9.33
7.62
9.64
9.90
8.57
8.74
11.82
10.18
14.83
12.98
9.20
7.52
9.44
9.47
8.64
8.49
11.23
10.03
14.80
13.79
9.53
8.35
9.60
9.78
8.70
9.18
12.68
10.47
15.12
14.91
9.68
8.92
9.85
9.91
8.86
9.42
14.32
10.99
14.54
13.38
9.41
7.76
9.77
9.89
8.51
8.84
12.06
10.32
14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26
14.47
13.58
9.47
8.13
9.59
9.83
8.68
8.89
12.32
10.36
14.83
13.80
9.46
8.16
9.68
9.77
8.68
9.01
12.62
10.47
12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53
12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75
12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17
12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67
12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68
12.63
8.41
6.51
6.11
6.74
6.19
6.00
6.07
7.73
6.85
12.85
8.50
6.81
6.58
7.16
6.62
6.35
6.81
8.70
7.29
12.64
8.16
6.54
5.76
6.75
6.07
6.01
5.86
7.84
6.79
12.75
8.24
6.40
5.62
6.42
5.66
6.04
5.90
7.42
6.62
12.61
8.43
6.58
6.01
6.59
6.11
6.04
6.30
7.94
6.86
12.82
8.66
6.82
6.61
7.07
6.52
6.14
6.97
8.85
7.28
12.64
8.19
6.52
5.76
6.71
6.08
5.83
6.03
8.00
6.78
12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79
12.70
8.43
6.57
6.06
6.80
6.18
6.04
6.11
7.94
6.91
12.71
8.38
6.58
6.01
6.71
6.09
6.01
6.33
8.08
6.89
15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47
14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89
15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40
14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66
14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66
14.58
13.37
9.24
8.41
9.83
8.59
8.66
8.70
11.32
9.99
15.12
14.18
9.61
8.99
10.23
8.99
9.13
9.38
12.83
10.54
14.82
12.80
9.08
7.72
9.82
8.46
8.41
8.38
11.20
9.82
15.09
12.84
8.93
7.56
9.56
8.08
8.48
8.25
10.80
9.65
14.98
13.50
9.27
8.31
9.81
8.54
8.64
8.92
11.64
10.06
15.21
14.59
9.61
9.01
10.28
8.94
8.98
9.51
13.05
10.63
14.89
13.15
9.13
7.80
9.90
8.48
8.36
8.54
11.36
9.90
15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88
14.81
13.40
9.23
8.22
9.89
8.60
8.68
8.67
11.55
10.02
15.05
13.54
9.24
8.19
9.90
8.52
8.64
8.84
11.73
10.08
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................
2011
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.103
2.083
0.009
0.077
0.021
0.015
0.036
0.005
2.230
-0.016
4.313
2.466
0.009
0.081
0.028
0.015
0.035
0.003
2.181
-0.015
4.908
3.426
0.009
0.087
0.033
0.014
0.037
0.003
2.321
-0.020
4.705
2.293
0.009
0.077
0.023
0.016
0.034
0.003
2.152
-0.016
5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011
4.934
2.497
0.008
0.080
0.028
0.016
0.035
0.002
2.137
-0.016
4.757
2.569
0.009
0.080
0.026
0.015
0.036
0.003
2.221
-0.017
0.643
0.044
0.002
0.329
0.030
0.043
0.019
10.280
0.754
0.045
0.004
0.360
0.031
0.045
0.020
10.744
0.913
0.044
0.011
0.410
0.028
0.048
0.021
10.509
0.667
0.046
0.012
0.310
0.034
0.050
0.021
11.871
0.643
0.046
0.004
0.387
0.033
0.048
0.020
10.401
0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
0.019
10.880
0.856
0.045
0.005
0.327
0.030
0.044
0.019
10.965
0.744
0.045
0.008
0.366
0.032
0.048
0.020
10.883
0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.021
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.047
0.212
0.022
0.005
0.051
0.217
0.025
0.005
0.048
0.210
0.022
0.005
0.050
0.223
0.023
0.006
0.050
0.216
0.023
0.005
0.054
0.232
0.028
0.006
0.051
0.218
0.024
0.006
0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.049
0.212
0.023
0.005
0.051
0.223
0.025
0.006
0.006
0.068
0.002
0.009
0.371
10.921
0.003
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.385
12.799
0.004
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.371
10.673
0.006
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.390
11.156
0.006
0.070
0.002
0.010
0.383
10.914
0.003
0.078
0.002
0.011
0.414
12.309
0.004
0.074
0.002
0.010
0.389
10.812
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.385
11.288
0.005
0.070
0.002
0.009
0.374
11.361
0.005
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.394
11.299
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008
4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008
5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015
4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014
4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
4.570
2.378
0.008
0.070
0.024
0.018
0.026
0.002
1.943
-0.016
5.516
3.290
0.009
0.093
0.041
0.016
0.039
0.003
2.255
-0.021
4.760
2.248
0.008
0.074
0.022
0.014
0.035
0.003
2.093
-0.016
0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
0.017
10.605
0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
0.020
10.497
0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
0.020
12.221
0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
0.019
10.187
0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
0.017
10.650
1.051
0.044
0.007
0.382
0.026
0.046
0.019
10.529
0.832
0.044
0.007
0.269
0.032
0.045
0.019
12.390
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.025
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.002
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.021
0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007
0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007
0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007
0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006
0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006
0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.384
11.011
0.005
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.377
10.897
0.003
0.075
0.002
0.011
0.404
12.650
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.374
10.583
0.005
0.067
0.002
0.008
0.368
11.039
1st
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01
2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00
2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01
2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.45
19.00
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.00
2.87
26.27
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.52
17.24
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.67
15.79
0.14
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.27
19.27
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.60
26.95
0.16
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.47
17.41
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00
2.61
19.61
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.50
19.87
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.57
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.51
0.01
0.02
1.43
0.01
0.02
1.55
0.01
0.02
1.49
0.01
0.02
1.61
0.01
0.02
1.49
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.47
0.01
0.02
1.53
0.01
2.75
17.05
0.18
2.53
19.79
0.18
2.93
28.40
0.21
2.53
18.32
0.15
2.62
17.40
0.16
2.47
20.56
0.13
2.89
27.88
0.17
2.54
18.76
0.14
2.69
17.43
0.15
2.29
20.85
0.15
2.62
28.66
0.16
2.49
19.00
0.15
2.68
20.91
0.18
2.63
21.17
0.15
2.52
21.50
0.15
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8
166.0
16.5
17.1
2.8
144.8
15.1
16.7
3.0
148.9
13.4
17.0
2.9
142.0
13.5
16.5
3.0
151.1
15.3
16.5
3.0
137.8
14.9
16.7
3.1
141.2
14.2
16.9
3.1
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
148.9
13.4
17.0
2.9
141.2
14.2
16.9
3.1
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786
0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949
0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792
0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844
0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065
0.939
0.054
0.030
0.342
0.470
0.290
0.024
0.115
2.264
0.757
0.100
0.031
0.244
0.506
0.290
0.035
0.118
2.087
0.587
0.101
0.026
0.298
0.495
0.293
0.037
0.113
1.950
0.681
0.102
0.027
0.323
0.493
0.294
0.032
0.113
2.065
0.825
0.100
0.034
0.367
0.482
0.295
0.029
0.120
2.252
0.608
0.103
0.035
0.281
0.533
0.299
0.029
0.128
2.016
0.587
0.104
0.028
0.350
0.516
0.299
0.029
0.121
2.033
2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371
3.078
0.310
0.114
1.176
1.949
1.165
0.110
0.456
8.366
2.701
0.408
0.124
1.322
2.024
1.187
0.120
0.481
8.366
0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975
0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127
0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952
0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001
0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239
0.942
0.039
0.006
0.342
0.038
0.065
1.434
0.754
0.085
0.007
0.244
0.048
0.066
1.204
0.583
0.086
0.002
0.298
0.045
0.063
1.078
0.676
0.087
0.003
0.323
0.047
0.064
1.200
0.819
0.085
0.010
0.367
0.041
0.068
1.391
0.605
0.088
0.011
0.281
0.051
0.072
1.108
0.583
0.089
0.004
0.350
0.050
0.069
1.145
2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055
3.077
0.251
0.017
1.176
0.177
0.255
4.954
2.683
0.349
0.028
1.322
0.190
0.274
4.844
0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372
0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376
0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385
0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378
0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363
0.005
0.001
0.309
0.041
0.361
0.003
0.001
0.335
0.044
0.386
0.003
0.001
0.328
0.042
0.379
0.005
0.001
0.323
0.041
0.374
0.006
0.001
0.319
0.043
0.372
0.003
0.001
0.359
0.047
0.414
0.004
0.001
0.343
0.044
0.396
0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511
0.016
0.004
1.284
0.169
1.489
0.017
0.004
1.344
0.174
1.556
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127
0.001
0.018
0.070
0.033
0.126
0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.128
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554
0.037
0.417
0.096
0.550
0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551
0.251
0.009
0.275
0.011
0.280
0.010
0.284
0.008
0.263
0.015
0.277
0.028
0.276
0.033
0.281
0.035
0.275
0.032
0.286
0.029
0.284
0.029
0.287
0.029
1.091
0.039
1.097
0.112
1.132
0.119
1.765
1.948
1.788
1.831
2.036
2.256
2.067
1.937
2.045
2.243
2.001
2.021
7.332
8.295
8.311
- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
(c) Other renewable energy sources include municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2010
Year
2011
2012
13,628
13,088
13,284
13,521
10,403
10,427
10,062
10,217
10,381
1,813
1,832
1,858
1,648
1,744
1,825
6.52
8.85
8.80
8.96
20.26
20.76
8.28
123.5
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.5
123.5
123.6
131.2
131.3
131.6
132.1
132.5
132.9
129.8
131.0
132.3
89.1
89.3
89.6
90.1
90.6
91.1
91.5
87.8
89.1
90.8
92.8
90.6
103.1
89.7
93.0
90.9
102.9
88.0
93.9
91.6
103.0
88.0
94.0
92.1
103.1
87.9
94.4
92.7
103.3
87.9
94.9
93.5
103.6
88.0
95.5
94.3
104.1
88.3
96.1
95.2
104.5
88.7
90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0
93.4
91.3
103.0
88.4
95.2
93.9
103.9
88.2
87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5
88.6
96.2
67.5
90.4
78.8
99.9
89.0
88.8
96.9
69.6
90.7
74.2
99.4
88.4
88.2
98.1
69.8
92.2
73.6
98.7
88.7
88.1
98.4
69.6
92.7
73.6
97.8
88.7
88.3
98.6
69.8
92.8
73.6
97.3
88.7
88.6
98.8
70.1
93.2
73.8
97.3
88.9
89.1
99.0
70.8
94.0
74.3
97.7
89.4
89.6
99.1
71.5
94.5
74.7
97.8
89.7
86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5
88.4
97.4
69.1
91.5
75.0
99.0
88.7
88.9
98.9
70.5
93.6
74.1
97.5
89.2
2.18
2.19
2.22
2.25
2.26
2.27
2.28
2.28
2.29
2.30
2.18
2.25
2.29
1.83
1.82
1.90
1.99
2.02
2.02
2.02
2.01
2.00
2.01
2.04
1.85
2.01
2.01
2.17
2.26
2.20
2.38
2.74
3.22
3.06
2.84
2.87
2.90
2.87
2.82
2.25
2.96
2.87
110.4
110.8
111.2
111.7
112.4
113.1
113.7
114.2
114.4
114.5
114.9
115.4
111.0
113.3
114.8
7,663
8,555
8,523
8,127
7,657
8,400
8,374
8,034
7,710
8,444
8,470
8,080
8,219
8,118
8,177
491
530
546
526
519
549
542
520
516
558
554
530
523
533
540
293
330
341
323
307
339
343
311
297
351
346
315
322
325
327
266.4
282.0
282.2
282.2
298.2
308.1
308.3
309.6
310.1
316.7
311.2
296.7
278.2
306.1
308.7
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.266
0.254
0.267
0.279
0.268
0.259
0.242
0.260
0.268
599
283
543
1,425
593
338
474
1,405
575
403
483
1,461
573
273
459
1,305
589
291
530
1,410
584
348
478
1,410
576
408
500
1,484
576
273
430
1,279
587
289
492
1,368
587
351
471
1,409
2,349
1,285
1,990
5,624
2,321
1,315
1,950
5,586
2,326
1,320
1,894
5,540
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
12,938
13,059
13,140
13,216
13,228
13,261
13,301
13,347
9,923
10,058
10,114
10,152
10,183
10,208
10,213
1,582
1,654
1,664
1,694
1,699
1,735
12.38
4.84
24.17
39.65
33.28
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.5
129.3
130.0
129.9
87.3
87.6
1st
2nd
3rd
13,415
13,488
13,553
10,264
10,315
10,380
1,758
1,783
1,795
23.56
14.83
11.36
123.5
123.5
123.5
130.1
130.5
131.0
87.9
88.2
88.6
89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5
91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8
91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1
85.5
86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2
86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6
2.18
2.17
1.85
4th
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
723
1,949
1,828
868
2,423
619
1,539
885
2,370
725
1,953
1,829
870
2,431
620
1,545
887
2,376
726
1,958
1,832
872
2,440
622
1,552
890
2,384
728
1,965
1,839
874
2,449
624
1,559
893
2,392
731
1,973
1,849
879
2,463
628
1,570
898
2,402
734
1,982
1,858
883
2,478
632
1,581
903
2,414
737
1,990
1,865
887
2,492
635
1,590
908
2,426
740
1,999
1,871
891
2,508
639
1,601
913
2,443
717
1,932
1,815
860
2,397
614
1,514
874
2,341
726
1,956
1,832
871
2,436
622
1,549
888
2,380
735
1,986
1,860
885
2,485
633
1,586
905
2,421
93.0
90.6
87.4
94.1
86.3
87.2
95.5
90.1
91.6
93.1
90.8
87.6
94.4
86.5
87.7
95.9
90.4
92.0
93.6
91.3
88.0
94.9
86.9
88.5
96.7
91.2
92.8
94.0
91.6
88.4
95.3
87.3
89.3
97.4
91.8
93.5
94.4
92.0
88.9
96.0
87.8
90.2
98.2
92.5
94.2
94.7
92.6
89.8
96.9
88.5
91.4
99.1
93.1
94.7
95.3
93.3
90.8
97.8
89.3
92.6
100.1
93.9
95.4
95.8
94.0
91.7
98.9
90.1
93.8
101.1
94.6
96.1
89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3
93.4
91.1
87.8
94.7
86.8
88.2
96.4
90.9
92.5
95.1
93.0
90.3
97.4
88.9
92.0
99.6
93.5
95.1
644
1,732
1,605
740
2,135
566
1,277
736
1,941
646
1,737
1,608
743
2,143
568
1,284
739
1,948
646
1,741
1,606
743
2,147
568
1,288
740
1,951
649
1,750
1,608
743
2,159
570
1,295
744
1,960
652
1,761
1,615
748
2,176
573
1,306
750
1,974
656
1,775
1,625
753
2,192
578
1,316
756
1,987
659
1,783
1,630
755
2,202
580
1,324
761
1,996
661
1,791
1,635
757
2,213
583
1,332
765
2,006
632
1,697
1,571
719
2,088
553
1,241
720
1,897
646
1,740
1,607
742
2,146
568
1,286
740
1,950
657
1,778
1,626
753
2,196
579
1,319
758
1,991
5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056
5,493
15,240
17,672
8,100
22,403
7,125
12,976
8,015
17,075
5,493
15,246
17,668
8,110
22,441
7,131
13,011
8,035
17,101
5,494
15,252
17,663
8,122
22,484
7,143
13,053
8,060
17,134
5,499
15,261
17,680
8,140
22,544
7,158
13,105
8,094
17,182
5,508
15,278
17,708
8,163
22,624
7,178
13,162
8,133
17,241
5,518
15,298
17,740
8,187
22,714
7,201
13,221
8,172
17,303
5,530
15,319
17,777
8,212
22,812
7,225
13,287
8,216
17,364
5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033
5,494
15,252
17,663
8,122
22,484
7,143
13,053
8,060
17,134
5,530
15,319
17,777
8,212
22,812
7,225
13,287
8,216
17,364
6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.1
7.4
15.3
9.2
19.4
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6
6.8
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.6
6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
2010
1st
2nd
Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Year
3rd
4th
2010
2011
2012
81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62
2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665
3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285
846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517
105
67
182
200
18
44
9
71
52
77
2,271
2,064
2,294
2,493
1,058
1,372
837
1,925
1,148
1,624
3,255
3,002
3,274
3,393
1,531
1,895
1,208
2,346
1,467
2,264
929
751
797
729
242
288
99
734
563
540
187
126
153
181
25
32
9
167
107
98
2,262
2,058
2,308
2,506
1,058
1,376
889
1,935
1,145
1,632
5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460
6,536
5,763
6,537
6,979
2,756
3,529
2,220
5,107
3,356
4,503
6,633
5,937
6,532
6,809
2,856
3,591
2,205
5,182
3,282
4,534
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930
0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68
0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33
111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432
496
670
668
810
1,262
1,134
1,767
971
606
942
0
5
9
13
203
62
193
61
41
77
0
0
1
3
115
33
92
14
7
37
70
141
197
264
576
472
812
376
150
348
351
514
504
653
1,086
1,008
1,432
865
513
776
0
5
8
12
209
62
176
70
41
77
656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455
607
891
904
1,118
2,353
1,858
3,164
1,359
717
1,484
421
660
710
932
1,986
1,575
2,512
1,325
711
1,238
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.