Indicator

Q2 10
May

Q3 10
Jul
Aug

National Accounts
Real GDP (yoy %)
Real GDP (qoq % sa)

---

2 -1 --

---

2 -0.4 --

---

Household Consumption (yoy %)

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (yoy %)
Gov't Spending (yoy %)

----

0.6 --0.6 -0.6 --

----

1 -0.5 -0.5 --

----

Domestic Demand (yoy %)

--

1.2 --

--

1.3 --

--

Nominal GDP ( bn)

--

2293 --

--

2310 --

--

Jun

Q4 10
Oct

Sep

Nov

Consumer Prices
Consumer Price Index (yoy %)
CPI ex-Food & Energy (yoy %)

1.6
0.9

1.4
1

1.7
1

1.6
1

1.8
1.2

1.9
1.1

1.9
1.1

CPI Estimate (yoy %)

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

Consumer Price Index (mom %)

CPI ex-Food & Energy (mom %)

0.1
0.1

0
0

-0.4
-0.6

0.2
0.3

0.3
0.4

0.3
0.3

0.1
-0.1

Producer Prices
PPI Finished Goods (yoy %)
PPI ex-Const. & Energy (yoy %)
PPI Intermediate Goods (yoy %)
PPI Manufacturing (yoy %)

3.1
1.7
3.9
4.1

3.1
1.9
4.3
3.6

4
2.1
4.5
3.8

3.6
2.3
4.7
3.3

4.3
2.6
5.1
4

4.3
2.9
5.5
4.1

4.5
3.1
5.8
4.3

Producer Price Index (mom %)

PPI ex-Food & Energy (mom %)

0.3
0.4

0.3
0.2

0.2
0.1

0.1
0.3

0.3
0.3

0.4
0.2

0.4
0.2

10.2

10.1

10.1

10.1

10.1

10.1

10.1

Labor Market
Unemployment Rate (%)
Labor Costs (yoy %)

--

1.5 --

--

0.9 --

--

Economic Activity
Industrial Production (yoy %)
Industrial Production (mom %)

10.1
1.3

8.5
-0.1

7.4
0.1

8.6
1.3

5.6
-0.7

7.2
0.8

8.1
1.5

Industrial New Orders (yoy %)

Industrial New Orders (mom % sa)

22.8
4.2

22.4
2.4

11.9
-1.7

24.6
5.2

13.6
-3.8

14.8
1.2

20.1
2.2

Construction Output WDA (yoy %)

Construction Output (mom % sa)
Capacity Utilization (% sa)

-7.2
-1.1

1.9
-7.9
-8.8
2
-3.7
-0.4
75.7 ---

-8
-1.6
77.4 --

-6.4
0.5

-7.4
-1.1

0.4
-0.8

0.7
-0.1

Business Conditions
Euro-Area Bus. Climate Index
Euro-Area Bus Climate Index (12-mo mov. avg.)

--

0.4
-1.1

0.6
-0.5

0.7
-0.3

--

0.9
0.1

0.9
0.3

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment Index)

37.6

18.8

15.8

4.4

1.8

13.8

Economic Confidence Index

Industrial Confidence Index
Services Confidence Index

98.3
-6.1
2.9

99 101.2 102.2
-5.4
-3.8
-2.6
3.7
6.5
6.5

103.4
-1.2
7.6

104.3
0.6
8

105.6
1.8
9.3

Sentix Investor Confidence Index

-6.4

-4.1

7.6

8.8

14

ECB Bank Lending Survey

Overall Tightening of Credit Standards for Enterprises
-(%) -Overall Demand for Loans or Credit Lines by Enterprises
-(%)
--

10.7

-1.3

8.2

11 --2 --

---

4 -7 --

Percent of Banks Expecting Tighter Credit Standards

-- for Enterprises
-(%) 5 -Percent of Banks Expecting More Loan Demand by
-- Enterprises
-(%)
29 --

---

5 -29 --

Percent of Banks Reporting Tighter Standards for--House Purchase

-Loans
10(%)
--Percent of Banks Reporting Tighter Standards for--Consumer
-- and Other Lending
12 -(%)--

1 -0 --

Percent of Banks Reporting More Demand for House

-- Purchase
-Loans (%)
24 -Percent of Banks Reporting More Demand for Consumer
-and
-- Other Lending
1 --(%)

---

10 --6 --

Percent of Banks Expecting Tighter Standards for--House Purchase

-Loans3(%)
--Percent of Banks Expecting Tighter Standards for--Consumer
-- and Other Lending
6 -(%)
--

-1 --4 --

Percent of Banks Expecting More Demand for House

-- Purchase
-Loans (%)5 -Percent of Banks Expecting More Demand for Consumer
-and
-- Other Lending
-6 -- (%)

27 -8 --

---

Leading Indicators
OECD Euro Area Lead. Indicator
OECD Euro-Area Lead. Indicator (12-mo %)

99.2
7.58

99
5.89

98.8
4.23

98.6
2.76

98.5
1.58

98.4
0.67

98.4
0.01

DZ Bank Leading Indicator

DZ Bank Leading Indicator (yoy %)

94.8
3.5

94.8
2.6

95.3
2.6

95.6
2.3

95.8
2.3

96.1
2

96.4
2.2

Housing Market
Lending for House Purch. ( Bn)
Lending for House Purch. Transactions ( Bn)

3597
11.2

3627
14.2

3640
14.8

3649
4.7

3658
11

3675
13.6

3683
3.3

0.9

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.3

0.9

1.1

Bloomberg Retail PMI

Retail Trade Confidence (% bal.)

47.4
-6.6

50.4
-5.3

52.4
-4

49.7
-3.5

48.7
-0.8

48
-0.8

51.3
-1.1

Passenger Cars (yoy %)

EU-25 New Car Registr. (yoy %)

-13.8
-9.2

-10.9
-6.6

-21.4
-18.9

-15.7
-13.2

-12.4
-9.6

-18.5
-16.6

-9.4
-7.2

Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Index

-17.7

-17.3

-14

-11.4

-11

-11

-9.4

648.9 645.9 644.4

642.5

641.5

642.9

Retail Sector
Retail Sales (yoy % sa)

Personal Sector
Consumer Credit ( bn)

622

Consumer Credit Transactions, Monthly

-1.1

External Sector
Current Account Bal. ( bn, nsa)
Current Account Bal. ( bn, sa)
Current Account (% of GDP)

-16
-4.8

Trade Balance ( mn, nsa)

Trade Balance ( mn, sa)

7.4

-1.9

1.6
5.5
-7.1
-3.1
-3
-3.1
-0.8 ---

--

-4645
744
-3681.2 -3144.1

Exports ( bn)
Imports ( bn)

-1.7

122.5
127.2

-0.4

-0.4

0.8

-4.6
-2.1
-0.3 --

4
-2.4

-3.6
-5.6
--

5517 -6003
1612
3904
-2247
-888 -2386 1023.1 2924.9 -2844.3

138.2 138.2 120.7

137.5 132.7 126.7

137.7
136.1

139.9
136

141.1
143.3

Government Sector
Gov't Budget Balance (% of GDP)]
Yearly Gov't Budget Balance (% of GDP)

---

--

-4.7 ---

---

--

-6.3 ---

---

Yearly Gov't Debt (% of GDP)

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Monetary Sector
M1 Money Supply (yoy %)
M2 Money Supply (yoy %)

10.2
1.4

8.8
1.4

8.6
1.7

7.7
2

6.3
2

5.2
2.2

4.5
2.3

M3 Money Supply (yoy %)

M3 Three-Month Avg. (yoy %)

0
-0.1

0.3
0

0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5

1.1
0.8

1.1
1

2.1
1.4

1
1
1
0.77
0.9 0.89
2.58 2.67 2.12
2573 2742 2623
1.22 1.31 1.27
91.24 94.08 91.86

1
0.89
2.28
2748
1.36
96.21

1
1.04
2.52
2845
1.39
96.97

1
1.03
2.67
2651
1.3
92.92

Financial Sector
ECB Refi Rate (%)
3-Month Euribor Rate (%)
10-Year Gov't Bond Yield (%)
Stock Prices (Euro Stoxx 50 Index)
US$/Euro Exchange Rate
Euro Major Currency Index

1
0.7
2.66
2610
1.23
94.05

Q1 11
Jan

Dec

Feb

Q2 11
Apr
May

Mar

2 -0.3 --

---

2.5 -0.8 --

---

1.1 -1.1 -0.6 --

----

----

----

1.5 --

--

--

--

2316 --

--

--

--

2.2
1

2.3
1.1

2.4
1

2.7
1.3

2.8
1.6

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

0.6
0.4

-0.7
-1.6

0.4
0.3

1.4
1.4

0.6
0.5

5.4
3.3
6.3
5.2

6
4
7.3
5.7

6.6
4.5
8.2
6.4

6.7
4.6
7.9
6.6

0.8
0.3

1.3
0.9

0.8
0.6

0.7
0.3

10

10

9.9

9.9

1.6 --

--

9
0.2

6.2
0

7.7
0.6

19.3
2.7

22.7
1.1

21.5
0.5

-13.8
-2.9
78.1 --

-3.7
4

3.9
-0.8

1.3
0.4

1.4
0.6

--

1.4
0.8

--

--

-4.9
-0.3
80 --

--

5.3
-0.2

1.4
0.9

1.3
1

15.5

25.4

29.5

106.9
5.1
9.8

106.8
6.1
9.9

107.9
6.6
11.2

9.7

10.6

16.7

31

19.7

107.3 106.2
6.7
5.8
10.8 10.4
17.1

14.2

---

0 -10 --

---

4 -19 --

---

2 -31 --

---

3 -26 --

---

9 -2 --

---

13 -8 --

---

23 --2 --

---

-10 --4 --

---

4 -4 --

---

9 -8 --

---

1 -7 --

---

5 -6 --

98.4
-0.45

98.4
-0.8

96.8
2.8

13.6

98.2
-1.12

97.9
-1.44

97.6
3.5

97.7
3.1

10.9

97.9
2.9

3707
30.6

3723
12.1

3725
2.8

3756
32.5

-0.1

0.6

1.4

-1.7

52.9
4.3

55.8
-0.6

49.9
-0.2

53.5
-1.4

52.2
-1.8

-3.4
-3.5

-0.5
-1.4

0.6
0.9

-4.8
-5

-3.8
-4.1

-11

-11.2

-10

-10.6

-11.6

641.8

633.8

630.4

630.4

-9.7

-0.6

-6

5.6
-20.8
-8
-5.6
0.3 ---

-3

0.8

-8.9
-6.5

-3.8
-4.7
--

--

-1322 -16000
-3003 2801
-1737.6 -3152.1 -2052.2 -935.4
134.8
136.1

124.6
140.6

134.8
137.8

157.9
155.1

-5 --6 --

---

--

---

---

85.1 --

--

--

--

--

4
2.1

3.1
2.2

2.8
2.3

3.1
2.7

1.7
1.6

1.5
1.7

2.1
1.8

2.3
2

1
1.01
2.96
2793
1.34
93.69

1
1.07
3.16
2954
1.37
94.92

1
1.09
3.17
3013
1.38
94.8

1 1.25 1.25
1.24 1.38 1.43
3.35 3.24 3.01
2911 3011 2794
1.42 1.48
1.4
97.64 99.27 95.85