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RP Data Equity Report

June Quarter, 2011

A quarterly assessment of equity accumulation across the Australian housing market

Released September 2011

Quarter, 2011 A quarterly assessment of equity accumulation across the Australian housing market Released September 2011

RP Data’s Equity Report provides a ‘base level’ estimate of equity accumulation across the Australian housing market by measuring the difference between the original purchase price of a home and the current valuation for individual properties around the country.

We call this a ‘base level’ estimate of equity, as our analysis doesn’t factor home owner debt levels into the analysis. At a minimum, Australian mortgage holders would be covering interest payments on their loan while the majority of mortgage holders are also paying down the loan principal. Additionally, home owners may have drawn upon their equity in the past which means their

debt level may have increased relative to the property value.

Australia’s residential housing market is worth an estimated $4.56 trillion; more than three-and-a-half

times the value of the Australian equities markets which has a market capitalisation of $1.3 trillion. With residential property being the most valuable asset class in the country, home equity is clearly an important measure of wealth. The accumulation of value in one’s home is often a key factor that a

bank will assess when deciding whether or not to lend money. Australian’s have increasingly relied on

value accumulation in their property holdings as a vehicle to leverage into other investments and purchases.

The strong growth in Australian property values during recent years has been the major reason why most regions enjoy quite a strong level of equity. Over the five years to June 2011 capital city home values have increased by about 30%, providing a significant wealth boost to most home owners

during this period. More recently the Australian housing market has softened and home values are

down 2.7 percent between their October 2010 peak and June 2011. Recent buyers who purchased a home during this time have potentially seen the value of their home move below their contract price.

The headline results from our equity analysis reveals that only 3.7 percent of Australian homes are currently valued at a lower amount than the price at which they were purchased. At the other end of

the spectrum, about 45 percent of Australian homes are worth more than twice what their owners

originally purchased them for. There is some variation between regions, with areas that have recorded a more severe downturn in home values in recent times now recording higher proportions of homes in negative equity. Northern Queensland and South Eastern Western????? Australia are showing more than ten percent of dwellings to be worth less now than the price at which the home was originally purchased.

The findings also point to the fact that the length of tenure has a large impact on equity accumulation. As would be expected, homes held for a longer time frame have accumulated more equity than those held for a shorter amount of time. Similarly, those homes purchased after 2007 have a higher propensity to show negative equity as many of these homes were purchased after the significant housing market gains recorded between 2000 to 2004 and during 2007.

of these homes were purchased after the significant housing market gains recorded between 2000 to 2004

Notes on methodology For each property around Australia we have compared the initial purchase price with the current estimated value of the property to provide a base line measure of equity accumulation.

RP Data collects virtually 100 percent of all property transaction details across the country, including purchase price and date, from individual State Government departments and directly from real estate professionals who are active in the market place. Our databases hold more than 17 million sales records across than 11.7 million properties nationally.

Valuations data is based on RP Data’s automated valuations models whereby the company provides an estimate on home values for residential properties across Australia. RP Data values more than 8.6 million dwellings each week via our automated valuation models.

Based on weekly tests where the sale records for any recently sold home are compared with their

automated valuation result, approximately 84 percent of the RP Data automated valuations used in

the analysis are within plus or minus 15 percent of the actual sale price. The automated valuations used for the weekly tests are run in a ‘blind’ environment where reference to the sale date or sale price being tested is kept hidden from the valuation model.

Each automated valuation estimation provides a forecast standard deviation score that provides an indication of the accuracy of the automated valuation.

Automated valuations where the range of potential values was deemed to be too wide (ie the forecast standard deviation was greater the 25) were excluded from the analysis.

values was deemed to be too wide (ie the forecast standard deviation was greater the 25)

Typical equity position Despite the strong growth in property values during

recent years, 3.7 percent of home owners across

the nation are in a negative equity position where

the current value of their home is less than what they originally paid for the property. This 3.7 percent is partly reflective of home buyers who have purchased in recent years within Queensland

and Western Australia where home values have

generally been weaker than other states. Additionally, buyers who bought near the recent peak of the market are also showing a higher proportion of homes with negative equity.

Equity Overview

National equity positions

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

45.1%

14.1% 1 6 . 2 % 14.7% 3.7% 6.2%
14.1% 1 6 . 2 % 14.7% 3.7% 6.2%

14.1%

16.2%

14.7%

14.1% 1 6 . 2 % 14.7% 3.7% 6.2%
3.7% 6.2%

3.7%

3.7% 6.2%

6.2%

3.7% 6.2%
3.7% 6.2%
3.7% 6.2%
3.7% 6.2%

Negative Equity

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

100% plus

The results also highlight that many households have a current property value of more than double the original purchase price, reflective of the strong growth in values up until recently. Just over 45 percent of homes across Australia are worth more than twice what the owner originally paid.

State equity positions

Capital city equity positions

State

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

City

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

NSW

3.3%

5.3%

15.7%

19.9%

14.2%

41.6%

Sydney

2.9%

4.8%

15.5%

21.7%

15.4%

39.6%

Vic

1.8%

3.2%

9.1%

14.5%

18.1%

53.3%

Melbourne

1.4%

2.8%

8.2%

13.8%

18.7%

55.1%

Qld

6.3%

10.3%

16.3%

14.0%

11.8%

41.3%

Brisbane

4.1%

9.4%

15.3%

14.5%

13.7%

42.9%

SA

3.0%

6.6%

16.5%

17.9%

17.6%

38.4%

Adelaide

2.4%

6.3%

16.2%

17.6%

18.4%

39.1%

WA

4.9%

8.3%

16.4%

11.2%

12.1%

47.1%

Perth

3.9%

8.4%

17.2%

11.2%

12.0%

47.4%

Tas

3.5%

5.7%

14.1%

15.7%

11.9%

49.1%

Hobart

3.3%

6.3%

14.5%

16.0%

11.4%

48.5%

NT

4.4%

4.2%

11.8%

14.4%

19.4%

45.8%

Darwin

4.8%

4.6%

12.0%

15.3%

18.4%

45.0%

ACT

1.0%

2.8%

12.7%

20.3%

17.5%

45.7%

Canberra

1.0%

2.8%

12.7%

20.3%

17.5%

45.7%

National

3.7%

6.2%

14.1%

16.2%

14.7%

45.1%

Combined caps

2.7%

5.4%

13.4%

16.7%

16.0%

45.9%

Equity positions across each state

On a state-by-state basis, Queensland has the greatest percentage of properties in negative equity at 6.3 percent followed by Western Australia with 4.9 per cent of properties. On the other hand, the Australian Capital Territory (1.0 percent) and the state of Victoria (1.8 percent) have relatively few negative equity

households.

In each state, households with 100% percent equity or more account for the largest proportion of homes as

highlighted in the table above. In stating this, almost a third of Queensland households have less than 25

percent equity and almost 30 percent of Western

Australian households are in the same position.

Overall, Victorian households enjoy the strongest equity position with 71.4 percent of households having at least 50 percent equity in their property. Victoria, and for that matter, Melbourne, has recorded one of

the highest rates of capital gain over the past five years

(Melbourne dwelling values are up 51.5% over the five years to June 2011); a factor that has likely had a major affect on the high equity level across the state.

a major affect on the high equity level across the state. Equity positions across each capital

Equity positions across each capital city The equity positions of each capital city tends to reflect the state-wide results. In all instances, the greatest proportion of households have recorded an equity level of at least 100 percent or more. Also, in every instance negative equity accounts for the smallest proportion of properties.

Darwin (4.8 percent) and Brisbane (4.1 percent) have the greatest proportion of negative equity properties while Canberra (1.0 percent) and Melbourne (1.4 percent) have the lowest proportion.

Across the combined capital cities, there is a lower

proportion of negative equity properties than there is nationally and there is a greater proportion of properties with equity of 100 percent or more. This trend is likely due to a higher rate of capital gains that has generally been recorded across the capital city markets compared with many regional locations. Over

the past five years to June 2011, the combined ‘Rest of

State’ markets, which include all regions outside the capital cities, have seen house values increase by 18.1% compared with a 28.8% gain in capital city home values.

p.4

Equity Overview

Greatest proportion of homes with negative equity

 

% of properties

Hold period

Statistical Division

in neg equity

(yrs)

Far North, QLD

13.5%

6.2

South Eastern, WA

11.2%

6.6

Gold Coast, QLD

9.9%

6.5

South West, WA

9.8%

5.9

Lower Great Southern, WA

9.8%

6.0

Sunshine Coast, QLD

9.0%

6.7

Upper Great Southern, WA

8.0%

5.7

Mallee, VIC

7.8%

7.6

Murray Lands, SA

7.4%

5.3

Kimberley, WA

7.2%

5.7

Lowest proportion of homes with negative equity

 

% of properties

Hold period

Statistical Division

in neg equity

(yrs)

Canberra, ACT

1.0%

6.9

Melbourne, VIC

1.4%

9.0

Loddon, VIC

1.6%

7.8

Barwon, VIC

2.2%

7.7

Central Highlands, VIC

2.2%

7.2

Adelaide, SA

2.4%

5.4

Gippsland, VIC

2.4%

7.8

South West, QLD

2.8%

6.6

North West, QLD

2.8%

5.7

Northern, NSW

2.9%

7.3

Note: hold period refers the median difference between the time of the most recent property purchase and June 2011.

Focus on negative equity Across the country just 3.7 percent of home owners are in a position where the original purchase price of

their home is lower than the current value of their home, however there are regions around Australian where

weak housing markets have created higher rates of negative equity.

Focusing on Statistical Divisions (SD) around the country, the analysis shows the regions which typically have the greatest proportion of properties with a negative level of equity are located in Queensland and Western Australia. This should come as no real surprise considering both markets have been particularly weak performers during recent times, most notably within coastal markets which had previously been supported by tourism and the ‘sea change’ phenomenon. Five of the ten regions with the greatest proportion of

negative equity properties are coastal.

The Far North region of Queensland which includes areas such as: Cairns, Palm Cove, Port Douglas, Innisfail, Weipa and Atherton has recorded the greatest proportion of properties in a negative equity position at 13.5 percent of all homes. The housing market within the north of Queensland has been noticeably weak and has felt the full brunt of the economic downturn. House values in the region have increased by just 3.2 percent

annually over the past six years and unit values have grown by 2.8 percent annually. Although values have

risen over the period, if we focus on just the last three years, house values are currently -7.3 percent lower than they were three years ago and unit values are -20.4 percent lower. The vast majority of home owners that have purchased since 2008 are likely to be in a negative equity position.

Western Australia’s ‘South Eastern’ Statistical Division, which includes the southern councils of Ravensthorpe and Esperance as well as the centrally located Kalgoorlie/Boulder council has shown the second highest proportion of homes in negative equity at 11.2 percent of all dwellings in the region. Median house values across this vast region remain 3.5 percent lower than their peak recorded back in late 2008.

Looking at the regions with the lowest levels of negative equity, the top ten regions all have less than 3.0 percent of all properties in a position where the current value is lower than the purchase price.

Canberra has the lowest proportion of properties in a negative equity position with just 1.0 percent of

properties or one in every 100 properties in this position. Canberra has recorded consistent growth in property values during recent years and is yet to record any substantial decline which is resulting in a stronger equity position than all other areas across the country.

Outside of Melbourne and Adelaide which are both coastal capital cities, only Barwon with 2.2 percent of all

properties in negative equity and Gippsland with 2.4 percent are in coastal regions.

Barwon with 2.2 percent of all properties in negative equity and Gippsland with 2.4 percent are

p.5

Equity Overview

Lowest proportion of homes with 100% + equity

% of properties

Hold period

Statistical Division

with >100%

equity

(yrs)

Outer Adelaide, SA

29.3%

4.5

South East, SA

30.5%

5.2

Murray Lands, SA

32.7%

5.3

South Eastern, WA

37.5%

5.1

Eyre, SA

36.4%

5.3

Yorke and Lower North, SA

37.1%

4.8

Gold Coast, QLD

35.2%

6.5

Far North, QLD

35.9%

6.2

Mallee, Vic

37.3%

7.6

Sunshine Coast, Qld

38.7%

6.7

Greatest proportion of homes with 100% + equity

% of properties

Hold period

Statistical Division

with >100%

equity

(yrs)

Central West, QLD

60.4%

7.4

Midlands, WA

58.7%

6.2

Far West, NSW

56.6%

6.8

South West, QLD

56.2%

6.6

Upper Great Southern, WA

55.5%

5.7

Melbourne, VIC

55.1%

9.0

North West, QLD

52.5%

5.7

Central, WA

52.5%

5.7

Northern, SA

51.3%

5.9

Western District, VIC

51.2%

8.3

Note: hold period refers the median difference between the time of the most recent property purchase and June 2011.

Focus on equity in excess of 100% of purchase price Across the nation, 45.1 percent of residential dwellings have a current value which is more than double the initial purchase price.

Looking once again at the Statistical Divisions across the country, those regions which have recorded the lowest proportion of homes where values are at least double the purchase price are mainly located in Queensland and South Australia. Of the ten regions that have the lowest proportion of these high equity properties, only half coincide with regions that were on the list for the greatest proportion of negative equity properties. That would suggest that just because some home owners are in a particularly poor equity position it doesn’t necessarily mean that the vast majority of home

owners in that region are in a similar position.

Many of the regions detailed as having a low proportion of households with equity in excess of 100 percent of the purchase price have a relatively short hold period. Obviously, the longer a property is held, over time it would be expected that the differential between the purchase price and the current value will improve.

The Outer Adelaide region of South Australia has the lowest proportion of properties with equity of 100 percent or more at just 29.3 percent. Out of all the Statistical Division’s analysed Outer Adelaide actually has the shortest length of tenure (4.5 years) which largely explains why relatively few properties have a current value more than double the purchase price.

Regional locations seem to have the greatest level of equity accumulation with all but one of the Statistical Divisions in the top ten being non-capital cities.

The Central West region of Queensland has the greatest proportion of properties which have a current value more than double the purchase price at 60.4 percent. The region is relatively sparsely populated with the major townships in the region being Barcaldine, Blackall and Longreach. The median house price remains quite low and with an average hold period of 7.4 years many home

owners are in a very strong position.

Across the top ten regions listed, Melbourne is the only capital city market with 55.1 percent of all homes having a value more than double the purchase price. All other areas are quite regional with most in agricultural areas of the country where house prices are much more affordable than they are within capital cities and coastal markets.

of the country where house prices are much more affordable than they are within capital cities

p.6

Equity Overview

Equity by state Given the strong growth in property values across the last 10 years, all states have recorded positive growth in median equity. The adjacent table highlights state-by-state equity levels in both percentage terms and dollar value terms as well as

the median length of ownership to June 2011.

State-wide equity measurement

 

Median change in

Median change in

Median length of

State

equity (%)

equity ($)

ownership (yrs)

New South Wales

60.2%

$168,448

8.7

Victoria

110.4%

$215,560

8.7

Queensland

54.9%

$139,419

6.6

South Australia

56.1%

$119,889

5.3

Western Australia

80.7%

$191,859

5.9

Tasmania

85.6%

$124,653

7.0

Northern Territory

79.0%

$200,799

4.8

Australian Capital Territory

75.2%

$223,570

6.9

Throughout the states, home owners in Victoria

have enjoyed the greatest increase in equity at 110.4 percent. It is important to note that Victorian home owners have owned their properties longer (8.7 years) than those in most other states, which is likely to have an affect on equity positions.

At the other end of the spectrum, Queensland properties have typically recorded the lowest level of growth in equity at just 54.9 percent.

Capital city equity Most capital city markets have recorded strong growth in property values over the last ten years. As a result, many home owners have built up substantial equity in their homes as these values have risen.

Capital city equity measurement

State Capital city

Median change in

Median change in

Median length of

 

equity (%)

equity ($)

ownership (yrs)

NSW

Sydney

57.2%

$194,991

8.9

VIC

Melbourne

119.9%

$255,928

9.0

QLD

Brisbane

63.4%

$169,547

6.8

SA

Adelaide

58.5%

$136,386

5.4

WA

Perth

81.9%

$208,612

6.0

TAS

Hobart

81.2%

$141,374

7.2

NT

Darwin

75.0%

$208,845

4.8

ACT

Canberra

75.2%

$223,570

6.9

Across the capital cities, Sydney has recorded the lowest increase in equity, with a median change of

just 57.2 percent. Given that Sydney property values have recorded the lowest level of capital gains in recent years it is no surprise that equity build-up in that city has been weaker than most others.

On the other hand, equity in Melbourne dwellings has increased by 119.9 percent. This is a function of Melbourne home owners typically owning their homes longer than most other cities together with

the strong growth in property values over the last decade.

Greatest equity growth by council areas Across the country, the Local Government Areas (LGA) which have recorded the greatest increase in equity have been dominated by areas of Victoria

and notably parts of Melbourne. Melbourne regions

are quite prevalent thanks to a longer than average length of tenure as well as the fact that Melbourne home values have seen an above average rate of capital gains over the recent growth phases.

Greatest equity growth by council areas

 

Median change in

Median change in

Median length of

LGA

State

equity (%)

equity ($)

ownership (yrs)

Tasman

TAS

196.1%

$141,827

8.2

Monash

VIC

195.1%

$387,004

11.0

Greater Dandenong

VIC

194.6%

$240,547

10.5

Whitehorse

VIC

187.3%

$382,209

10.7

Gingin

WA

181.1%

$271,327

8.0

Boroondara

VIC

171.8%

$550,981

10.2

Manningham

VIC

167.7%

$428,086

10.9

Darebin

VIC

167.4%

$314,093

10.0

Loddon

VIC

165.7%

$86,497

10.0

Glen Eira

VIC

161.0%

$386,368

10.3

The Tasman council area in the Southern region of

Tasmania has recorded the greatest percentage increase in equity. Values in the region have moved from a very low base and are typically 196.1 percent higher than the original purchase price. This rapid improvement in equity has occurred over just 8.2 years on average.

higher than the original purchase price. This rapid improvement in equity has occurred over just 8.2

p.7

State-wide equity measurement

New South Wales

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

81.2%

$198,462

9.6

Units

41.6%

$125,114

6.9

Dwellings

60.2%

$168,448

8.7

New South Wales equity by property type The typical New South Wales property owner has held their property for 8.7 years. The current value of properties is 60.2 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has $168,448 worth of equity in their property.

In terms of equity build up, houses have outpaced units. Houses are typically owned for much longer (9.6 years) than units (6.9 years). As a result the equity growth for houses (81.2 percent, $198,462), has been significantly greater than it has been for units (60.2 percent, $168,448).

Equity levels by major regions

Statistical Division

 

Median length of

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

ownership (yrs)

Central West

4.4%

5.5%

16.2%

16.9%

13.5%

43.6%

8.0

Far West

6.4%

4.4%

7.6%

10.8%

14.3%

56.6%

6.8

Hunter

3.7%

5.9%

15.7%

16.6%

10.6%

47.5%

8.9

Illawarra

3.4%

6.1%

17.4%

17.3%

10.4%

45.4%

9.0

Mid-North Coast

4.0%

6.8%

17.2%

15.2%

10.3%

46.5%

8.7

Murray

4.9%

8.0%

16.7%

14.9%

14.0%

41.4%

8.4

Murrumbidgee

4.6%

6.7%

15.2%

17.1%

15.1%

41.3%

7.6

North Western

4.1%

6.6%

17.4%

15.0%

15.2%

41.8%

7.5

Northern

2.9%

4.8%

15.5%

16.8%

15.1%

44.9%

7.3

Richmond-Tweed

5.0%

8.2%

14.9%

14.7%

10.7%

46.5%

8.0

South Eastern

4.7%

6.2%

14.2%

15.4%

12.5%

46.9%

8.1

Sydney

2.9%

4.8%

15.5%

21.7%

15.4%

39.6%

8.9

Equity by major NSW regions The Far West region of the state has the greatest proportion of properties in a negative equity position (6.4 percent) followed by the Richmond-Tweed region which is a coastal market adjacent to the Queensland and New South Wales border (5.0 percent). Sydney and the Northern region have the fewest properties in a negative equity position at just 2.9 percent each.

Across the state, the proportion of properties which have a current value more than double the initial purchase price varies from 39.6 percent in Sydney to 56.6 percent in the Far West (despite the fact that the Far West also has the greatest proportion of negative equity properties).

Across all regions more than half of the homes have accumulated equity of 50 percent or more. The

Far West has the greatest proportion (70.8 percent), followed by: Northern (60.0 percent) and South

Eastern (59.5 percent).

If property values across the state fell by 10 percent from their current levels, the following regions would have the greatest instances of negative equity: Richmond-Tweed (13.3 percent), Murray (12.9 percent) and Murrumbidgee (11.3 percent).

Properties within the major population centres of Sydney (8.9 years), Hunter (8.9 years) and Illawarra (9.0 years) have tended to be owned for the longest period of time. On the other hand, properties within the Far West (6.8 years) and Northern (7.3 years) regions had typically been owned by the current owners for the shortest period of time.

and Northern (7.3 years) regions had typically been owned by the current owners for the shortest

p.8

State-wide equity measurement

Victoria

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

126.2%

$234,202

9.1

Units

76.6%

$169,006

7.5

Dwellings

110.4%

$215,560

8.7

Victoria equity by property type

The typical Victorian property owner has held their property for 8.7 years. The current value of properties is 110.4 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $215,560 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of equity accumulation, houses have outpaced units. Houses are typically owned for much longer (9.1 years) than units (7.5 years). As a result the typical value improvement for houses (126.2 percent, $234,202), has been significantly greater than it has been for units (76.6 percent, $169,006).

Equity levels by major regions

Statistical

Division

 

Median length of

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

ownership (yrs)

Barwon

2.2%

3.7%

10.2%

17.7%

17.9%

48.2%

7.7

Central Highlands

2.2%

3.8%

12.0%

20.7%

16.8%

44.5%

7.2

East Gippsland

3.4%

4.8%

13.5%

15.8%

12.5%

50.1%

7.9

Gippsland

2.4%

4.1%

11.7%

18.3%

16.7%

46.8%

7.0

Goulburn

4.2%

5.8%

15.2%

16.9%

15.0%

42.9%

7.7

Loddon

1.6%

3.0%

10.8%

18.1%

17.1%

49.4%

7.8

Mallee

7.8%

8.5%

16.7%

15.1%

14.7%

37.3%

7.6

Melbourne

1.4%

2.8%

8.2%

13.8%

18.7%

55.1%

9.0

Ovens-Murray

4.6%

7.3%

18.4%

14.2%

11.7%

43.7%

7.7

Western District

3.2%

4.4%

12.1%

16.2%

12.9%

51.2%

8.3

Wimmera

4.6%

4.8%

13.7%

16.1%

16.2%

44.6%

7.5

Equity by major Vic regions The Mallee region of the state has the greatest proportion of properties in which the current value is lower than the purchase price (7.8 percent) followed by Ovens-Murray and Wimmera (both 4.6 percent). Melbourne has the fewest properties in a negative equity position (1.4 percent) followed by Loddon (1.6 percent).

Across the state, the proportion of properties which have a current value more than double the initial purchase price varies from 37.3 percent in Mallee to 55.1 percent in Melbourne. Melbourne in particular has a majority of homes with a current value more than double that of the purchase price and this is mainly due to the fact that homes are typically held for a long period of time.

Based on current property values, all regions of Victoria have more than half of their properties worth

in excess of 50 percent more than the initial purchase price. Melbourne (73.9 percent), Loddon (66.5 percent) and Barwon (66.1 percent) have the greatest proportion of properties valued at greater than 50 percent more than the purchase price.

If property values across the state fell by 10 percent from their current levels, the following regions would have the greatest instances of negative equity: Mallee (16.2 percent), Ovens-Murray (12.0 percent) and Goulburn (10.0 percent).

Properties within Melbourne (9.0 years) and Western District (8.3 years) have tended to be owned for the longest period of time. On the other hand, properties within Gippsland (7.0 years) and the Central Highlands (7.2 years) have typically been owned by the current owners for the shortest period of time.

and the Central Highlands (7.2 years) have typically been owned by the current owners for the

p.9

State-wide equity measurement

Queensland

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

68.8%

$165,670

6.9

Units

32.7%

$86,454

5.8

Dwellings

54.9%

$139,419

6.6

Queensland equity by property type The typical Queensland property owner has held their property for 6.6 years. The current value of properties is 54.9 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $139,419 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have outpaced units. Houses are typically owned for much longer (6.9 years) than units (5.8 years). As a result the typical value improvement for houses (68.8 percent, $165,670), has been significantly greater than it has been for units (32.7 percent, $86,454).

Equity levels by major regions

Statistical Division

 

Median length of

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

ownership (yrs)

Brisbane

4.1%

9.4%

15.3%

14.5%

13.7%

42.9%

6.8

Central West

4.6%

5.0%

9.3%

8.8%

12.1%

60.4%

7.4

Darling Downs

3.0%

6.0%

18.7%

18.4%

11.3%

42.6%

6.4

Far North

13.5%

12.0%

15.7%

11.8%

11.3%

35.9%

6.2

Fitzroy

3.8%

7.1%

15.6%

14.1%

10.4%

48.9%

6.1

Gold Coast

9.9%

12.7%

17.0%

14.2%

11.0%

35.2%

6.5

Mackay

6.8%

8.7%

18.4%

11.4%

8.9%

45.8%

6.3

North West

2.8%

5.1%

18.2%

12.8%

8.8%

52.5%

5.7

Northern

5.9%

11.5%

15.7%

11.6%

11.2%

44.1%

6.2

South West

2.8%

4.5%

12.5%

13.5%

10.6%

56.2%

6.6

Sunshine Coast

9.0%

12.9%

17.7%

13.3%

8.4%

38.7%

6.7

West Moreton

4.1%

8.7%

15.8%

14.6%

11.0%

45.8%

6.2

Wide Bay-Burnett

6.8%

11.2%

18.3%

12.9%

9.3%

41.4%

6.2

Equity by major Qld regions The Far North region has the country’s (and subsequently Queensland’s) greatest proportion of total properties with a current property value lower than the purchase price (13.5 percent) followed by the Gold Coast (9.9 percent). A number of Queensland regions have a relatively high instance of negative equity compared to other states however, the North West and South West regions have a relatively low instance of negative equity (both 2.8 percent).

The proportion of properties with a current value more than double the purchase price varies across the state from as little as 35.2 percent of properties on the Gold Coast to as high as 60.4 percent in the Central West region. What isn’t a surprise is the fact that the Central West’s large number of properties worth double their purchase price coincides with the fact that the region has the longest length of ownership at 7.4 years.

The Central West region has the greatest proportion of homes with more than 50 percent equity (72.4 percent) followed by: South West (66.8 percent) and North West (61.2 percent). On the other hand, only 47.1 percent of homes on the Sunshine Coast and within the Far North region have equity in excess of 50 percent of the initial purchase price.

If property values across Queensland were to fall a further 10 percent from their June 2011 level, a number of regions would have a substantial number of houses in negative equity including: Far North (25.4 percent), Gold Coast (22.6 percent) and Sunshine Coast (21.9 percent).

Property owners in the Central West region have Queensland’s longest length of tenure (7.4 years) with Brisbane the second longest at 6.8 years. Most regions have a length of ownership between six and six and a half years however the shortest are: North West (5.7 years) and Fitzroy (6.1 years).

between six and six and a half years however the shortest are: North West (5.7 years)

p.10

State-wide equity measurement

South Australia

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

57.5%

$126,739

5.4

Units

51.5%

$100,742

5.0

Dwellings

56.1%

$119,889

5.3

South Australia equity by property type South Australian home owners have typically been in their current property for just 5.3 years. The

current value of these homes is 56.1 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value

terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $119,889 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have slightly outperformed units. Houses are typically owned for 5.4 years compared to units which have been held for 5.0 years. As a result, the typical value

improvement for houses (57.5 percent, $126,739), has been slightly superior than it has been for

units (51.5 percent, $100,742).

Equity levels by major regions

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Statistical Division

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

Adelaide

2.4%

6.3%

16.2%

17.6%

18.4%

39.1%

5.4

Eyre

4.1%

6.4%

17.4%

20.4%

15.1%

36.4%

5.3

Murray Lands

7.4%

9.4%

17.9%

17.6%

15.0%

32.7%

5.3

Northern

5.8%

6.5%

12.1%

12.3%

12.0%

51.3%

5.9

Outer Adelaide

4.1%

7.3%

19.6%

23.1%

16.7%

29.3%

4.5

South East

4.6%

8.0%

20.3%

21.5%

15.1%

30.5%

5.2

Yorke and Lower North

5.4%

8.2%

17.0%

17.2%

15.1%

37.1%

4.8

Equity by major SA regions In terms of properties in a negative equity position, Murray Lands has the greatest proportion of

properties in which the current value is below the purchase price with 7.4 percent of all homes in this

position followed by the Northern region (5.8 percent). The rate of negative equity in South Australia is typically higher than the national benchmark however, levels are comparatively low in Adelaide (2.4 percent) and Eyre and South East (both 4.1 percent).

The Northern region is the only statistical division across the state which has recorded a majority of

homes as having equity levels of more than 100 percent. Outer Adelaide has the nation’s (and South

Australia’s) lowest proportion of properties in a position where the current value is double the purchase price at just 29.3 percent of properties.

Within the Northern region, 63.4 percent of homes have in excess of 50 percent equity. Adelaide (57.4 percent) and Yorke and Lower North (52.2 percent) have comparatively high instances of equity greater than 50 percent. The instances of equity greater than 50 percent are low in: South East (45.7

percent), Outer Adelaide (46.0 percent) and Murray Lands (47.7 percent).

If properties across South Australia fell by 10 percent from their current level, negative equity would be greatest within: Murray Lands (16.8 percent), Yorke and Lower North (13.6 percent) and South East (12.6 percent).

Outer Adelaide home owners have held their properties for just 4.5 years which is the shortest length

of ownership across all major South Australian regions while the Yorke and Lower North region also has quite a short length (4.8 years). The Northern region has South Australia’s longest typical length of ownership (5.9 years) however, in comparison to most other states it is a fairly short length of ownership.

length of ownership (5.9 years) however, in comparison to most other states it is a fairly

p.11

State-wide equity measurement

Western Australia

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

81.9%

$199,507

5.8

Units

74.7%

$159,364

6.5

Dwellings

80.7%

$191,859

5.9

Western Australia equity by property type Western Australian home owners have typically been in possession of their current property for just 5.9 years. The current value of these homes is 80.7 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $191,859 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have outperformed units. Houses are typically owned for 5.8 years

compared to units which have been held for a longer 6.5 years. Despite the longer hold period for units, the typical value improvement for houses (81.9 percent, $199,507), has been superior than it has been for units (74.7 percent, $159,364).

Equity levels by major regions

Statistical Division

 

Median length of

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

ownership (yrs)

Central

5.6%

5.6%

13.5%

11.5%

11.3%

52.5%

5.7

Kimberley

7.2%

6.8%

15.0%

9.8%

14.4%

46.7%

5.7

Lower Great Southern

9.8%

8.0%

11.8%

8.7%

12.0%

49.7%

6.0

Midlands

6.4%

4.6%

8.7%

10.0%

11.6%

58.7%

6.2

Perth

3.9%

8.4%

17.2%

11.2%

12.0%

47.4%

6.0

Pilbara

5.7%

5.7%

13.2%

13.8%

11.9%

49.7%

5.3

South Eastern

11.2%

8.4%

12.8%

13.2%

16.8%

37.5%

5.1

South West

9.8%

9.6%

15.0%

10.9%

12.0%

42.8%

5.9

Upper Great Southern

8.0%

4.1%

9.5%

11.1%

11.8%

55.5%

5.7

Equity by major WA regions

Western Australia has a comparatively high level of negative equity compared to other states due to

the property market downturn it has experienced since 2007. The South Eastern region of the state

has the greatest instances of negative equity with 11.2 percent of properties worth less than the purchase price. Rates of negative equity are lowest in Perth at 3.9 percent.

The Midlands, Upper Great Southern and Central regions of the state all have greater than half their properties in a position where the current value is double the purchase price. Based on the typical equity level, the South Eastern region of the state has the lowest equity position at just 59.2 percent.

In each region, more than half of all homes have equity in excess of 50 percent. The greatest proportion of homes with equity of more than 50 percent are found in: Midlands (70.3 percent), Upper Great Southern (67.3 percent) and Central (63.8 percent). The lowest levels of equity in excess of 50 percent more than the purchase price are found in: South Eastern (54.3 percent), South West (54.8 percent) and Perth (59.4 percent).

Under a scenario in which property values across Western Australia fell by 10 percent, the following regions would have the greatest instance of negative equity: South Eastern (19.6 percent), South West (19.4 percent) and Lower Great Southern (17.7 percent).

Home owners in the South Eastern region have held their properties for just 5.1 years which is the shortest hold period of all regions across the state. Properties in the Pilbara have also been held for a relatively short 5.3 years. The Midlands region not only has the strongest equity position, it also has the longest typical length of ownership at 6.2 years.

region not only has the strongest equity position, it also has the longest typical length of

p.12

State-wide equity measurement

Tasmania

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

98.2%

$133,032

7.3

Units

45.7%

$81,647

5.5

Dwellings

85.6%

$124,653

7.0

Tasmania equity by property type

Home owners across Tasmania have typically owned their properties for 7.0 years. The current value of these homes is 85.6 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $124,653 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have outperformed units. Houses are typically owned for 7.3 years compared to units which have been held for a shorter 5.5 years. The typical value improvement for houses (98.2 percent, $133,032), has been far superior than it has been for units (45.7 percent,

$81,647).

Equity levels by major regions

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Statistical Division

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

Hobart

3.3%

6.3%

14.5%

16.0%

11.4%

48.5%

7.2

Mersey-Lyell

3.6%

5.4%

13.6%

15.4%

12.0%

50.0%

6.9

Northern

3.3%

5.0%

14.0%

16.1%

12.4%

49.2%

6.9

Southern

5.0%

6.1%

12.8%

13.1%

12.1%

51.0%

6.7

Equity by major Tas regions Negative equity levels are close to average across most regions of Tasmania however, they are slightly elevated in the Southern region. Across the Southern region, 5.0 percent of all homes are worth less now than they were when they were purchased. Hobart and the Northern regions have the lowest levels of negative equity (3.3 percent).

Despite the fact that the Southern region had the greatest proportion of homes worth less than when

purchased it also has the greatest proportion of properties worth more than double (51.0 percent) the initial purchase price. Mersey-Lyell recorded that half of all homes in the region have a current property value more than double the initial purchase price.

Across the four major regions, each have in excess of 50 percent of properties with a current equity

level greater than 50 percent of the purchase price. The Southern region has the greatest proportion

of homes with more than 50 percent equity (63.0 percent) while Hobart has the lowest proportion (59.9 percent).

If home values throughout all regions in Tasmania were to fall by 10 percent from current levels, the Southern region would have the greatest instances of negative equity (11.1 percent). Under the same circumstances, negative equity would be lowest in the Northern region (8.3 percent).

Across the four Tasmanian regions the typical length of ownership of homes does not vary greatly. The Southern region has the shortest length of ownership at just 6.7 years and Hobart home owners have held their properties for the longest typical length (7.2 years).

at just 6.7 years and Hobart home owners have held their properties for the longest typical

p.13

State-wide equity measurement

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

94.2%

$238,327

5.1

Units

60.0%

$152,016

4.3

Dwellings

79.0%

$200,799

4.8

Northern Territory

Northern Territory equity by property type Home owners across the Northern Territory have typically owned their current properties for just 4.8 years, the shortest median hold period of any state or territory. The current value of these homes is 79.0 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $200,799 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have outperformed units. Houses are typically owned for 5.1 years

compared to units which have been held for a shorter 4.3 years. The typical value improvement for houses (94.2 percent, $238,327), has been superior than it has been for units (60.0 percent,

$152,016).

Equity levels by major regions

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Statistical Division

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

Darwin

4.8%

4.6%

12.0%

15.3%

18.4%

45.0%

4.8

Northern Territory - Bal

3.1%

2.8%

11.4%

11.1%

23.1%

48.5%

4.7

Equity by major NT regions

Darwin homes have a slightly elevated level of negative equity, whereas those regions outside of

Darwin typically enjoy a superior position. Across Darwin, 4.8 percent of homes are currently worth less than the price initially paid whereas in those areas outside of Darwin only 3.1 percent of properties have a current value less than the purchase price.

Outside of Darwin, 48.5 percent of homes have a current value which is more than double the initial purchase price. On the other hand, 45.0 percent of home owners in Darwin have a current value

which is more than double the price paid for the home.

The vast majority of homes across the state have more than 50 percent equity. In Darwin, 63.4 percent of homes have a current value which is more than 50 percent higher than the purchase price and outside of Darwin the figure is 71.6 percent.

If home values fell by 10 percent from their current levels across the Northern Territory, 9.4 percent of

Darwin homes would be in a negative equity position compared to 5.9 percent of homes outside of Darwin.

The typical length of home ownership across the Northern Territory is quite low. Home owners in Darwin have typically owned their current properties for just 4.8 years whereas those outside of Darwin have owned their properties for a shorter 4.7 years.

properties for just 4.8 years whereas those outside of Darwin have owned their properties for a

p.14

Australian Capital Territory regions

State-wide equity measurement

Property type

Median change in equity (%)

Median change in equity ($)

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Houses

95.2%

$277,257

7.3

Units

56.3%

$155,738

5.8

Dwellings

75.2%

$223,570

6.9

Australian Capital Territory equity by property type Home owners across the ACT have typically owned their current properties for just 6.9 years. The current value of these homes is 75.2 percent higher than the initial purchase price. In dollar value terms, the typical home owner has a current value which is $223,570 higher than the initial purchase price.

In terms of value growth, houses have outperformed units. Houses are typically owned for 7.3 years

compared to units which have been held for a shorter 5.8 years. The typical value improvement for houses (95.2 percent, $277,257), has been superior to units (56.3 percent, $155,738).

Equity levels by major regions

Median length of ownership (yrs)

Statistical Sub Division

Region

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

Belconnen

Canberra

0.8%

3.1%

14.1%

22.4%

15.7%

43.9%

6.4

Gungahlin-Hall

Canberra

0.6%

2.2%

14.7%

22.5%

16.4%

43.6%

5.2

North Canberra

Canberra

2.1%

3.2%

12.7%

20.7%

24.1%

37.2%

6.1

South Canberra

Canberra

2.0%

3.1%

10.5%

18.9%

21.5%

43.9%

7.1

Tuggeranong

Canberra

0.4%

2.2%

12.2%

18.6%

15.1%

51.5%

8.1

Weston Creek-Stromlo

Canberra

0.9%

3.0%

11.4%

18.6%

16.9%

49.2%

7.5

Woden Valley

Canberra

1.9%

3.3%

9.5%

17.3%

17.7%

50.2%

7.7

The proportion of homes showing negative equity across the regions of Canberra are relatively low compared to other regions. The region showing the highest proportion of homes currently valued at less than what they were purchased for is North Canberra at just 2.1%.

Woden Valley is showing the highest proportion of homes worth at least double what the owners

originally paid at 50.2%.

If home values across Canberra fell by 10 percent from their current level, the city would still have a comparatively low instance of negative equity, the following levels of negative equity would apply across each region: Tuggeranong (2.5 percent), Gungahlin-Hall (2.8 percent), Belconnen and Weston Creek-Stromlo (both 3.9 percent), South Canberra (5.1 percent), Woden Valley (5.2 percent) and

North Canberra (5.3 percent).

(both 3.9 percent), South Canberra (5.1 percent), Woden Valley (5.2 percent) and North Canberra (5.3 percent).

p.15

Equity after the GFC

The Global Financial Crisis began affecting housing markets in 2008. Australia’s capital city house values recorded peak to trough falls of -3.8 percent during 2008 as the world economy slowed.

Following the slowdown, interest rates were slashed to their lowest levels in decades and the Federal

Government introduced the First Home Owners Grant Boost which encouraged market activity and resulted in growth in home values once more. Since the Reserve Bank began lifting official interest rates back in October 2009 the residential property market has slowed. Across most Australian regions property values have fallen and are now below their peak.

The implications of these conditions are that growth in housing asset values has been much more

subdued since the GFC and those which have purchased recently have lower equity levels. The following tables highlight equity positions across each state based on properties which have transacted between June 2001 and June 2011. Pre-GFC is considered to be any of those properties transacted between June 2001 and December 2007 and Post-GFC includes properties purchased after 2007 and before June 2011.

State equity positions pre and post GFC

 

Pre-GFC

 

Post-GFC

 

State

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

NSW

5.0%

6.3%

17.7%

32.5%

24.7%

13.8%

4.6%

15.1%

44.8%

28.3%

5.7%

1.6%

VIC

1.2%

1.9%

6.0%

19.7%

40.4%

30.8%

5.5%

13.8%

35.9%

32.1%

11.1%

1.6%

QLD

5.1%

5.8%

14.7%

23.5%

22.0%

28.9%

13.3%

32.4%

40.7%

9.8%

1.7%

2.1%

SA

1.4%

2.1%

8.2%

25.1%

33.3%

29.8%

6.9%

20.7%

50.2%

17.5%

3.1%

1.5%

WA

4.2%

5.7%

11.2%

12.5%

21.4%

45.0%

9.6%

22.1%

43.8%

17.0%

3.9%

3.6%

TAS

1.9%

2.9%

10.2%

21.8%

21.3%

41.9%

9.5%

19.9%

41.2%

20.9%

6.2%

2.3%

NT

2.2%

1.0%

2.8%

10.1%

25.1%

58.8%

8.2%

11.3%

36.9%

22.1%

12.1%

9.5%

ACT

0.6%

1.0%

5.2%

26.4%

36.5%

30.3%

2.3%

10.9%

46.3%

31.5%

4.3%

4.7%

National

3.7%

4.6%

12.5%

24.2%

27.8%

27.2%

7.7%

20.0%

42.0%

22.7%

5.7%

2.0%

Capital City equity positions pre and post GFC

 
 

Pre-GFC

 

Post-GFC

 

State

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

< 0%

0 - 10%

10 - 25%

25 - 50%

50 - 100%

> 100%

Sydney

4.6%

5.9%

17.5%

36.0%

26.9%

9.1%

3.6%

13.7%

44.4%

30.8%

6.0%

1.5%

Melbourne

0.6%

1.1%

4.3%

18.0%

43.4%

32.5%

5.2%

13.8%

35.2%

33.3%

11.2%

1.4%

Brisbane

2.5%

3.3%

12.2%

25.7%

27.2%

29.1%

10.5%

34.8%

42.4%

9.1%

1.3%

2.0%

Adelaide

1.0%

1.5%

6.9%

25.1%

35.6%

29.8%

5.9%

21.3%

51.6%

17.1%

2.8%

1.4%

Perth

2.9%

5.5%

11.7%

12.6%

22.0%

45.3%

8.0%