CONTENTS NATION BUSINESS WORLD

7
Renewable Energy:
The Global Score
By Gary B. Olivar
Astheworldheadsintotheseconddecade
ofthenewmillennium,themostvexatious
problemsontheeconomicfrontcontinueto
centeronthepersistenceofrecessionarytrends
inthedevelopedregionsandchronicpoverty
inthedevelopingones.Nonetheless,itisin
thelatterareaswheremostofthedynamismis
stilltobefoundtodayandprospectsforgrowth
remainhigh,particularlyamongsuchleading
countriesasthetraditionalexportoriented
tigereconomiesofAsia(HongKong,South
Korea,Taiwan,Singapore)andthenewBRIC
(BrazilRussiaIndiaChina)groupingoflarge
andpopulousstates.
Thequestforgrowthalwayscarrieswithit
aninsatiablehungerforenergytopowera
countrysfactories,keepitscarsontheroads,
andsustaintheamenitiesofmodernlife
towhichtodaysconsumercultureaspires.
Amongdevelopingcountrieswheregrowthis
mandatoryifpopulationsaretoliftthemselves
frompovertyandstayaheadoftheirown
increasingnumberstherehasthusbeen
littlesympathyfortheangstinthedeveloped
worldoverwhatisseentobeamajorcostof
economicgrowthnamely,unsustainable
environmentaldamage,mostvisiblythe
climatechangecausedbythecarbonfootprint
beinggeneratedfromthecontinuedburningof
fossilbasedfuelsforenergy.
Today,however,thepictureischanging.Even
inthedevelopingworld,thereisagrowing
recognitionandacceptanceofitsshareof
responsibilitytominimizeenergyusagethat
enlargesthecarbonfootprint,andshiftto
energysourcesthatreduceit.Indeed,asthe
chartbelowfromBritishPetroleumsglobal
energyreportshows,energyuseperunitof
economicoutputorGDPhasbeendropping
foracoupleofdecades.
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US
World
China
India
Energy use per unit of GDP
toe per thousand $2009 PPP
Historical trends and patterns of development...
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Forecast
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
The wave of the future may come sooner than we think
Renewable energy - The global score
CONTENTS NATION BUSINESS WORLD
8
Problemofclimatechangebegets
!""!#$%&'$'()*'&*+,'-.$(/)-.#$*0!!1)*
andtechnologies.Initslatestannualreport
ontradeandinvestmentopportunitiesinAsia
!"#$%#,releasedinJuly,the
UnitedNationsEconomicand
SocialCommissionforAsiaand
&'()!"#$%#)*+,-.!/)$0(1&$%(0)
regionaltradeandinvestment
opportunitiesinclimatesmart
goodsandtechnologies.As
itsexecutivedirector,UN
UndersecretaryGeneralDr.
NoeleenHeyzer,statedinher
introduction:Astheregion
willhavetocometotermswith
theexpectedeffectsofclimate
change,thereisacollectiveimperativeto
increasetradeandinvestmentinthesegoods.
2'()34)"5(1#6)17&(0)&'"&)&'().8$"9!"#$%#)
:(5$71);$<<)1((0)&7)$1=(8&)>?)&7)@ABB)C$<<$71)
C6)DBEB)$1)7:0(:)&7):(0>#()5:((1'7>8()5"8(8)
intheregiontodesiredlevels.Thiswill
simultaneouslyalsocreateopportunities
todevelopandexportthesetechnologies,
especiallyinwater,energyandresource
(F%#$(1#6G)-'$1")$8)(H?(#&(0)&7)"##7>1&)
formorethanhalfofthisnewinvestment,
F7<<7;(0)C6)I10$");$&')JKLG)I1)7&'(:);7:08M)
renewableenergycanmakealotofsense
economicallyaswellasenvironmentally.
2.)$*3)'.*$!*,(.1*$4(*5!#,1*'&*+,'-.$(/
changeinvestments?Indeed,investmentin
#<$N"&(9#'"15()=(1&>:(8)#7><0)&7?)@E)&:$<<$71)
equivalenttoChinasGDPinthenext
twodecades,accordingtoClimateChange
ScenariosM)")8&>06)C6)#718><&$15)%:N)O(:#(:)
oninvestmentstrategiestohedgeagainst
andgainfromcomingenvironmentaltrends.
AndthereportforecaststhatEastAsiawill
leadtheworldinclimatechangetechnology
investments,includingthosedesignedto
reduceenergyuse(seechart).
ThemessageisntlostonthePhilippines,who
isalreadytheworldssecondlargestproducer
ofgeothermalenergy,andispledgingtotriple
itsrenewableenergyresourcesM)&7)JEMPBQ)OR)
by2030,astheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)
launcheditsNationalRenewableEnergy
PrograminJune.Thecountrysrenewable
(1(:56):(87>:#(8)#>::(1&<6)#7N?:$8()PPGDL)7F)
itstotalinstalledgeneratingcapacity.
TheambitioustargetsoftheNational
RenewableEnergyProgramincludemore
thandoublingthegeothermalandhydro
powergeneratingcapacitieswhich
#71&:$C>&(0)STGKL)7F)&'()#7>1&:6U8):(1(;"C<(9
(1(:56)#"?"#$&6)$1)DBJB)V);'$<()(H?"10$15)
8$51$%#"1&<6)&'()8'":()7F);$10M)87<":M)C$7N"88M)
andoceanpowergeneratingcapacitiesfrom
JGPL)7F)&'():(1(;"C<(9(1(:56)#"?"#$&6)$1)DBJB)
&7)JPGTQL)C6)DBPB)*8(()&"C<()C(<7;/G)W6)&'(1M)
thecountrysprojectedrenewableenergy
5(1(:"&$15)#"?"#$&6)8'7><0)#7N?:$8()ADGQL)
ofthecountrysprojectedpowerdemandof
DQMEPQ)OR.
THROWING MONEY AT CLIMATE CHANGE
Cumulative Investments in Technology, 2010-2030
EU US Japan China/East Asia Russia India/South Asia
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
$US bn
Delayed Action
Regional Divergence
$ billion
Geothermal 1,996.0 220.0 1,100.0 95.0 80.0 1,495.0 3,461.0
Hydro 3,400.0 341.3 3,161.0 1,891.0 0.0 5,394.1 8,724.1
Biomass 39.0 276.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 276.7 315.7
Wind 33.0 1,048.0 855.0 442.0 0.0 2,345.0 2,378.0
Solar 1.0 269.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 284.0 285.0
Ocean 0.0 0.0 35.5 35.0 0.0 70.5 70.5
TOTAL 5,438.0 2,155.0 5,156.5 2,468.8 85.0 9,865.3 15,304.3
SECTOR
Installed
Capacity,
(MW)
as of 2010
Total
Capacity
Addition
(MW)
2011-2030
Total
Installed
Capacity
by 2030
Target Capacity Addition by
2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Mercer computations based on IEA WEO (2009), as defned in the Methodology
Source: DOE, National Renewable Energy Program Executive Summary