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Foosung
093370 KS
Target price: W7,400 W10,200 Up/downside: +22.6% Share price (2 May): W8,320
Yumi Kim
What's new
We believe the continued strength of Foosungs refrigerant prices could be a catalyst for further earnings upside and an improvement in the companys share price over the next six months. As a result, we reiterate our 1 (Buy) rating on the stock, based on the 23% upside potential to our new target price of W10,200.
What's the impact
Foosungs margins to widen over the next six months. As such, we expect Foosungs refrigerant division to see stronger earnings-growth momentum in 2011 than we expected previously. We now forecast sales and operating profit for the division to amount to W167.3bn and W22.6bn, respectively, versus our previous forecasts of W117.1bn and W7.0bn. Our new target price is equivalent to a 2011 PER of 21.1x, based on the six-month average of the stocks comparable peer, adjusted for a market discount. Our revised EPS forecast for 2011 marks a 40% upward revision from our previous forecast, and indicates 602% YoY growth for 2011.
What we recommend
How we differ
We are the only foreign research house in a limited pool of brokers providing coverage on this stock.
Forecast revisions (%)
Year to 31 Dec Revenue change Net-profit change EPS change
Source: Daiwa forecasts
In the year to the end of March 2011, the price of HCFC-22 refrigerant imported from China a benchmark indicator for Foosungs ASP had surged by 68% versus the 2010 average, following the 80% YoY increase last year. The import price of key raw material fluorspar, meanwhile, has risen by just 20% after the 11% increase in 2010. We believe the surge in refrigerant prices is likely to be sustained amid the continued tight supply-demand dynamics in China as well as the rest of the world, and we expect
12-month range Market cap (US$m) Average daily turnover (US$m) Shares outstanding (m) Major shareholder
We believe investors should accumulate shares in Foosung on any short-term pullback in the share price especially ahead of the potential re-rating catalysts we see, including: 1) the 1Q11 earnings results, where operating profit should surpass last years full-year figure, 2) licence renewal for the companys carbon-credit business, and 3) momentum in demand for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) and related materials alongside growth of the market for hybrid and allelectric vehicles.
Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report.
Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
Growth outlook
At the recurring earnings level (pre-tax profit minus gains from the companys carbon credit business), we forecast Foosung to record increases of 404% YoY, 18% YoY and 21% YoY for 2011-13, respectively. Growth for the company should result primarily from the cap-up effect for its LiB material LiPF6 for which the company is one of just four major producers worldwide as well as continued strength in refrigerant prices. In the longer term, we expect Foosung to emerge as the prime beneficiary of the fast-growing LiB market, thanks to its price advantage as well as its access to top LiB-makers like LG Chem (051910 KS, W540,000, 1) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS, W197,000, 2).
Pre-tax earnings
Recurring earnings
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Note: Recurring earnings based on pre-tax profit minus earnings from carbon-credit business
Valuation
We have used a 2011 PER of 21.1x to value Foosung. Our target multiple is based on the six-month average of its comparable peer, Stella Chemifa (4109 JP, 2,972, 2), with a market discount of 12%. Foosung trades currently at a 17.3x PER versus the average of 15.6x, based on the Bloomberg-consensus forecasts for its other major fluorochemical and electrolyte-material peers, but believe the premium is well-deserved in light of the company having the greatest revenue exposure to the fast-growing LiB market, the higher entry barriers associated with this LiB component group, and its high earnings growth.
Ticker Foosung Electrolyte material Stella Chemifa Kanto Denka Kogyo Central Glass Honeywell International Electrolyte Separator Positive electrodes Negative electrodes Battery makers EV makers 093370 KS 4109 JP 4047 JP 4044 JP HON US
PER (x) 17.3 15.6 17.8 14.0 15.0 15.5 11.3 13.2 13.5 17.2 15.3 21.7 21.5 13.1 14.9 11.8 12.2 13.4 9.6 11.9 10.0 10.6 11.3 10.3
PBR (x) 4.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 3.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.2 3.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.6 3.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.7
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg-consensus forecasts for non-rated stocks Note: Figures for each grouping based on the average of the listed companies
Earnings revisions
We are the only foreign research house among a limited pool of brokers providing coverage of this stock. Our EPS forecast for 2011 is 19% above that of the consensus, though we are more conservative in our forecast for 2012. We have not reflected any gains related to the companys carbon credit business from 2012 on, given the uncertainty regarding the renewal of the companys licence.
Hyundai 2012E
E*Trade
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Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
Financial summary
Key assumptions
Year to 31 Dec LiB demand (MWh) LiPF6 production (t.p.a.) Foosung's LiPF6 capacity (t.p.a.) 2006 2007 11,472 2,200 200 2008 14,352 2,530 200 2009 15,989 2,780 220 2010 20,352 4,800 1,120 2011E 25,602 8,300 2,000 2012E 32,908 10,500 2,000 2013E 45,512 11,450 2,000
2006 1 0 0 1 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
2007 13 1 (4) (2) (5) 1 (10) 1 0 (10) (3) 0 0 0 (3) 0 (12) (9)
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Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
2006 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.2 n.a. n.a. 3.8 1.9 n.a. n.a. 37.6 33.8 406.0 255.6 n.a. 0.0
2007 630.7 n.a. n.a. n.m. n.m. 10.1 2.3 1.8 20.7 7.9 2.2 1.7 90.1 32.5 102.3 58.1 1.5 21.2
2008 41.0 589.9 98.5 69.4 62.9 16.2 11.5 2.5 23.9 9.0 2.7 2.2 97.5 23.3 59.6 31.9 0.9 0.0
2009 4.7 3.8 (74.0) (50.2) (55.0) 16.4 11.4 0.6 8.1 3.8 0.5 0.6 63.6 n.a. 59.6 41.1 0.3 0.0
2010 26.3 62.4 890.4 (20.0) (20.8) 19.4 14.6 4.8 5.4 2.6 4.6 4.1 73.2 13.6 70.7 45.2 2.5 0.0
2011E 58.0 102.9 379.3 605.2 602.1 26.2 18.8 14.6 29.5 14.7 17.5 15.1 56.0 18.0 64.5 37.4 5.2 0.0
2012E 22.8 14.3 15.0 (19.7) (19.7) 24.4 17.5 13.7 18.1 9.8 17.0 14.8 38.5 18.0 63.1 38.5 5.9 0.0
2013E 12.4 12.1 13.4 20.5 20.5 24.0 17.5 13.8 17.9 10.8 17.6 15.7 19.7 18.0 61.6 39.6 8.6 0.0
Company profile
Foosung is mainly a fluorochemical company, producing refrigerant gases. However, in more recent years it has expanded its portfolio of fluorine-based products to include semiconductor gases as well as the electrolyte material for secondary lithium-ion batteries. The company also produces car mats, and its pre-tax earnings include gains from carbon credits.
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Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
HCFC-4060 17.3%
HCFC-22 28.8%
HFC-410a 17.3%
Source: Company Note: Figures based on production capacity; HFC-410a and HFC-32 are replacements for HCFC-22; HCFC-4060 is a mixture of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 and is a replacement for CFC-12; HFO-1234YF, a replacement for HFC-134a, is currently under development and scheduled for pilot production from 2H11 or 1H12, and mass production from 2013
HCFC-22
HFC-410a
Source: Korea Customs Office, Compiled by Daiwa Note: 2011 YTD figures based on Jan-Mar 2011 data
Source: Korea Customs Office, Company, Compiled by Daiwa Note: Price of Chinese imports based on figures for HCFC-22 and quarterly-average exchange rates. Price of Foosungs refrigerants based on average selling price (sales divided by shipment). Figure for 1Q11 based on Jan-Mar 2011 data
Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
calcium fluoride (CaF2) and to promote sustainable development of its downstream industries. Until as recently as 2008-09, the abundance of fluorite resources and ever-increasing demand for refrigerants had driven blind capacity expansion among producers in downstream industries and overexploitation of the mineral, as well as runaway environmental damage (ie, dust released in processing fluorite into powder form, by-products emitted from the manufacturing of refrigerants). Players thereby adopted low-price and low-margin strategies to survive, and cheap Chinese imports served to apply downward pricing pressure on Foosungs products in Korea. Since 2010, however, the PRC Government has helped to promote an improved pricing environment by placing restrictions on fluorite production (ie, a 2011 cap of 4.5m tonnes, a resource tax of 15% from March 2010, a temporary ban on new licences) and by introducing legislation raising the admittance threshold for downstream players as of December 2010. In the longer term, we believe the surge in prices may decelerate, but we think the downside risk is likely to be limited, in light of the continued tight supplydemand dynamics in Korea, China, as well as the rest of the world. Refrigerant demand is highly correlated with the general health of the economy, in our view, and is therefore on a recovery trend with demand increasing the fastest in developing countries. At the same time, supply has continued to come under increasing restrictions pursuant to environmental regulations and international response to climate change. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987), for instance, calls for the freezing of HCFC production volumes at 1989 and 2009-10 levels for developed and developing countries, respectively, and a 90% and 10% target reduction from these baselines by the end of 2014.
Figures up to the end of March indicate that the price differential between refrigerants and acid-grade fluorspar increased from 4.3x in 2008-09 to 7.6x in 2010, and has climbed further to as high as 10.6x so far in 2011. Margins should stabilise in the longer term, however, as the gap between fluorspar prices and downstream products narrows. The PRC Government continues to place restrictions on new exploration and mining, and we also see the risk of a reinstatement of the export quota system progressive reductions in export volume as well as further hikes in export tariffs (ie, raised from 10% to 15% in June 2007).
Foosung: key raw materials for its fluorochemical products
Lithium carbonate, Li2CO3 (extracted from brine or from minerals) Lithium fluoride, LiF Lithium-ion battery electrolyte material (ie, lithium hexafluorophosphate, LiPF6) Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, AHF Semiconductor gases (ie, hydrofluoric acid)
+ sulfuric acid
+ water
Source: Compiled by Daiwa Note: Information for fluorochemical products only; excludes the companys car-mat business
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: Korea Customs Office, Company, Compiled by Daiwa Note: Prices based on Chinese imports
Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
Source: Korea Customs Office, compiled by Daiwa Note: 2011E based on Jan-Mar 2011 figures; refrigerant and raw-material prices based on Chinese imports of HCFC-22 and fluorspar
Pre-tax earnings
Recurring earnings
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Note: Recurring earnings based on pre-tax profit minus earnings from carbon-credit business
Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
licence renewal for a registered CDM participant, as well as the absence of a successor or extension agreement to the Kyoto Protocol which is set to expire at the end of 2012, licence renewal would mean an additional W10-30bn in annual pre-tax gains for the company through the end of 2016. We note that the possibility for licence renewal continues to arise once every two months following review by the Executive Board (ie, 30 May-3 June).
2) any changes to longer-term supply and demand dynamics for fluorspar and fluorine-based refrigerant products including competition between fluorochemical refrigerants and not-in-kind systems (ie, ammonia, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons), changes in the regulatory environment, especially in China, as well as a downturn in the global economy, 3) delays in production growth among makers of LiBs used in automotive applications as eco-friendly cars take longer than expected to gain traction, and 4) any longer-term fluctuations in the W/ currency rates, which would affect Foosungs price advantage over its rivals in Japan with regard to its LiB material products. We see limited risk of oversupply for the companys LiPF6 despite the additional cap-up of 1,000tpa to 2,000tpa by the end of 3Q11 especially in light of the fact that the companys key customers have been carrying out known aggressive capacity-expansion plans of their own. In our simulation analysis, we found that even our most conservative estimates and assumptions indicate a demand surplus for Foosung of 54 tonnes in 2011, and more than 1,000 tonnes and 2,000 tonnes in 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Simulation analysis: risk of oversupply limited for Foosung
2010 Production capacity at Foosung's customers* LG Chem - LiB (m cells pa) Increase (% YoY) Technosemichem - electrolytes (tpa) Increase (% YoY) Panax E-tec - electrolytes (tpa) Increase (% YoY) LiPF6 demand among Foosung's customers** LG Chem (tpa) Foosung's share of customer's orders (%) Technosemichem (tpa) Foosung's share of customer's orders (%) Panax E-tec (tpa) Foosung's share of customer's orders (%) Customers overseas (tpa) Foosung's share of customer's orders (%) LiPF6 supplied by Foosung to customers*** LiPF6 supplied to LG Chem (tpa) LiPF6 supplied to Technosemichem (tpa) LiPF6 supplied to Panax E-tec (tpa) LiPF6 supplied to customers overseas (tpa) Demand for Foosung's LiPF6 (tpa) Foosung's production capacity (tpa) Supply in excess of demand (tpa) Implied average operational rate (%) 8.4 5,400 4,000 667 60 702 43 520 48 400 300 250 50 1,000 1,000 0 100 2011E 17.4 107.1 5,400 0.0 14,000 250.0 1,381 60 702 43 1,820 48 829 300 875 50 2,054 2,000 (54) 103 2012E 38.4 120.7 5,400 0.0 14,000 0.0 3,048 60 702 43 1,820 48 1,829 300 875 50 3,054 2,000 (1,054) 153 2013E 61.0 58.9 5,400 0.0 14,000 0.0 4,841 60 702 43 1,820 48 2,905 300 875 50 4,130 2,000 (2,130) 206
Source: Companies, Daiwa forecasts Note: *2011-12 figures for LG Chem's LiB production capacity based on Daiwa estimates; **Assume each ton of electrolyte produced by Foosungs customer requires 130kg of LiPF6; **Assume growth in LiPF6 demand among Foosung's customers at the rate of production capacity increase by customer, as announced, with the exception of customers overseas, where 0% growth has been assumed; **Assume Foosungs share of orders for each customer at end-2010 constant (ie, 60% LG Chem, 43% Technosemichem, 48% Panax Etec); ***Amount of LiPF6 supplied by Foosung to customers based on sales breakdown as at end-2010 approximations (ie, 40% LG Chem, 30% Technosemichem, 25% Panax E-tec, 5% exports)
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Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
5/3/2011 10,200 1
3/11/2011 7,400 1
10,200
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Materials / Korea
093370 KS
3 May 2011
3/7/2011 210,000 2
1/27/2011 185,000 2
6/30/2010 200,000 2
3/23/2010 170,000 2
2010-1-26 135,000 3
10/20/2009 130,000 3
230,000
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Disclaimer
This publication is produced by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, and distributed by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd., and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd., its parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, or its or their respective directors, officers and employees from time to time have trades as principals, or have positions in, or have other interests in the securities of the company under research including derivatives in respect of such securities or may have also performed investment banking and other services for the issuer of such securities. The following are additional disclosures. Japan Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd and Daiwa Securities Group Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd and Daiwa Securities Group: Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Daiwa Securities Group. Investment Banking Relationship Within the preceding 12 months, The Affiliates of Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd.* has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: Patel Engineering (PEC IN); International Taifeng Holdings Limited (873 HK); Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Limited (460 HK); Strides Arcolab Limited (STR IN); China Metal Resources Holding Limited (8071 HK); China 33 Media Group Limited (8087 HK); Sabana Shariah Compliant Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (SSREIT SP). *Affiliates of Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. for the purposes of this section shall mean any one or more of: Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd. Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd., Seoul Branch Hong Kong This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (DHK) which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Recipients of this research in Hong Kong may contact DHK in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with this research. Ownership of Securities For Ownership of Securities information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. Investment Banking Relationship For Investment Banking Relationship, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. Relevant Relationship (DHK) DHK may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage. DHK market making DHK may from time to time make a market in securities covered by this research. Singapore This research is distributed in Singapore by Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and it may only be distributed in Singapore to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. By virtue of distribution to these category of investors, Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and its representatives are not required to comply with Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) (Section 36 relates to disclosure of Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limiteds interest and/or its representatives interest in securities). Recipients of this research in Singapore may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. Australia This research is distributed in Australia by Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited and it may only be distributed in Australia to wholesale investors within the meaning of the Corporations Act. Recipients of this research in Australia may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. Ownership of Securities For Ownership of Securities information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. India This research is distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited (DAIWA) which is an intermediary registered with Securities & Exchange Board of India. This report is not to be considered as an offer or solicitation for any dealings in securities. While the information in this report has been compiled by DAIWA in good faith from sources believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express of implied, is made or given as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. DAIWA its officers, employees, representatives and agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise howsoever arising (whether in negligence or otherwise) out of or in connection with or from any use of or reliance on the contents of and/or omissions from this document. Consequently DAIWA expressly disclaims any and all liability for, or based on or relating to any such information contained in or errors in or omissions in this report. Accordingly, you are recommended to seek your own legal, tax or other advice and should rely solely on your own judgment, review and analysis, in evaluating the information in this document. The data contained in this document is subject to change without any prior notice DAIWA reserves its right to modify this report as maybe required from time to time. DAIWA is committed to providing independent recommendations to its Clients and would be happy to provide any information in response to any query from its Clients. This report is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. The information contained in this document should not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or redistributed in any form to any other person. We and our group companies, affiliates, officers, directors and employees may from time to time, have long or short positions, in and buy sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or have the potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information or opinion. DAIWA prohibits its analyst and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analyst cover. This report is not intended or directed for distribution to, or use by any person, citizen or entity which is resident or located in any state or country or jurisdiction where such publication, distribution or use would be contrary to any statutory legislation, or regulation which would require DAIWA and its affiliates/ group companies to any registration or licensing requirements. The views expressed in the report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about the securities and issuers that are subject of the Report, and that no part of the analysts compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly, related to the recommendations or views expressed in the Report. This report does not recommend to US recipients the use of Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited or any of its non US affiliates to effect trades in any securities and is not supplied with any understanding that US recipients will direct commission business to Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited. Taiwan This research is distributed in Taiwan by Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd and it may only be distributed in Taiwan to institutional investors or specific investors who have signed recommendation contracts with Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in accordance with the Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers. Recipients of this research in Taiwan may contact Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research.
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United Kingdom This research report is produced by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co., Ltd and/or its affiliates and is distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority (FSA) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange, Chi-X, Eurex and NYSE Liffe. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and its affiliates may, from time to time, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities referred to herein (the Securities), perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the Securities or options thereof and/or may have acted as an underwriter during the past twelve months for the issuer of such securities. In addition, employees of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and its affiliates may have positions and effect transactions in such securities or options and may serve as Directors of such issuers. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited may, to the extent permitted by applicable UK law and other applicable law or regulation, effect transactions in the Securities before this material is published to recipients. This publication is intended for investors who are not Retail Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the Rules of the FSA and should not therefore be distributed to such Retail Clients in the United Kingdom. Should you enter into investment business with Daiwa Capital Markets Europes affiliates outside the United Kingdom, we are obliged to advise that the protection afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system may not apply; in particular, the benefits of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme may not be available. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited has in place organisational arrangements for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest. Our conflict management policy is available at http://www.uk.daiwacm.com/about-us/corporate-governance-and-regulatory. Regulatory disclosures of investment banking relationships are available at www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. Germany This document has been approved by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and is distributed in Germany by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Niederlassung Frankfurt which is regulated by BaFin (Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht) for the conduct of business in Germany. Dubai This document has been distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Dubai Branch. Related financial products or services are intended only for professional clients and no other person should act upon it. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited is duly licensed and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. United States This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. (DCMA). It may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as such. It reflects the preparers views at the time of its preparation, but may not reflect events occurring after its preparation; nor does it reflect DCMAs views at any time. Neither DCMA nor the preparer has any obligation to update this report or to continue to prepare research on this subject. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy securities. Unless this report says otherwise, any recommendation it makes is risky and appropriate only for sophisticated speculative investors able to incur significant losses. Readers should consult their financial advisors to determine whether any such recommendation is consistent with their own investment objectives, financial situation and needs. This report does not recommend to U.S. recipients the use of any of DCMAs non-U.S. affiliates to effect trades in any security and is not supplied with any understanding that U.S. recipients of this report will direct commission business to such non-U.S. entities. Unless applicable law permits otherwise, non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this material should contact a Daiwa entity in their local jurisdiction. Most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as a process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sales in some jurisdictions. Customers wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact DCMA: Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New York, New York 10005 (telephone 212-612-7000). Ownership of Securities For Ownership of Securities information please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. Investment Banking Relationships For Investment Banking Relationships please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. DCMA Market Making For DCMA Market Making please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. Research Analyst Conflicts For updates on Research Analyst Conflicts please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. The principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers covered in the report, are not (nor are any members of their household) an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer(s) covered in the report, and are not aware of any material relevant conflict of interest involving the analyst or DCMA, and did not receive any compensation from the issuer during the past 12 months except as noted: no exceptions. Research Analyst Certification For updates on Research Analyst Certification and Rating System please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at http://www2.us.daiwacm.com/report_disclosure.html. The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report (or the views of the firm producing the report if no individual analysts[s] is named on the report); and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) (or no part of the compensation of the firm if no individual analyst[s)] is named on the report) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this Research Report. The following explains the rating system in the report as compared to relevant local indices, based on the beliefs of the author of the report. "1": the security could outperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months. "2": the security is expected to outperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months. "3": the security is expected to perform within 5% of the local index (better or worse) over the next six months. "4": the security is expected to underperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months. "5": the security could underperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months. Additional information may be available upon request. Japan - additional notification items pursuant to Article 37 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (This Notification is only applicable where report is distributed by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd.) If you decide to enter into a business arrangement with us based on the information described in materials presented along with this document, we ask you to pay close attention to the following items. In addition to the purchase price of a financial instrument, we will collect a trading commission* for each transaction as agreed beforehand with you. Since commissions may be included in the purchase price or may not be charged for certain transactions, we recommend that you confirm the commission for each transaction. In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are a non-resident of Japan. For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements. There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements. There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us. Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts as certified public accountants. *The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc. When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us. Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.109 Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association
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