Title: Swine Flu and its Effect on Tourism Industries in US and Europe Problem Statement: How will Swine

Flu Pandemic Affect US and European Tourism Industries? Theoretical Framework Swine Flu has had an impact on the tourism industry worldwide. Apart from the originating country, Mexico, the tourism industry has also been hit in other countries of the world. Swine Flu has been identified as a pandemic with the World Health Organisation (WHO) confirming it to be in alert level Phase 5, i.e. it is spreading rapidly by way of person-to-person contact. Effects of swine flu on tourism were made worse by the travel restrictions advised by WHO and other health authorities (BBC, 2009). Mexico and USA were the two countries most hit in their travel industry than the rest of the world. Repercussions were also felt in Australia since any bottleneck to airlines is most disadvantageous to Australia as it is far away from the most countries of the northern hemisphere. Not to mention, Europeans are also facing the dangers of an exposed threat to Swine Flu. This research is an attempt to examine the impact and dangers faced by the US and European Tourism Industries in the wake of a Swine Flu Pandemic across the continents. Research Proposition All the data is collected as a result of exploratory research design and is available on internet as provided by different government and non-government agencies. As this data could not be verified, we had to rely upon the source for the correct statistics and figures regarding the scenario. Research Design: Exploratory - Secondary Data Analysis Descriptive - Longitudinal Conclusions US Tourism before Swine Flu Pandemic U.S. Tourism has stood at the position of Worlds No.1 in term of capital investment, generated revenue and number of visitors. With its natural wonders, cities, historic landmarks and entertainment venues, the U.S. attracts millions of international and

domestic tourists each year. The Tourism Industry in the United States grew rapidly in the form of urban tourism during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, all major US cities, has already attracted a large number of tourists by the 1890s. By 1915, city touring had marked significant shifts in the way Americans perceived, organized and moved around in urban environments. Nowadays, T&T is one of the main sources of income of U.S. Economy. By 2009 the tourism industry had climbed to contribute US$1,356.9 bn (9.5%) to the countrys total GPD. US Tourism Industry after Swine Flu However, due to recent threats, including swine flu, there has been slower growth in travel volume, reflecting a maturing industry and a period of challenges and slowdown in the industry. In fact, according to a report of World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), in 2009 U.S. T&T industry is expected to see real decline of 4.2%, the largest fall since 9/11 terrorist attack. European Tourism Industry before Swine Flu Threat By far, Europe is largely considered the top travel destination in the world, with a gigantic resource of history, cultures, and cuisines. For those with an interest in the past, there are the fabulous art galleries, museums and old buildings, while those who enjoy the great outdoor have a wide range of opportunities from the golf courses of Ireland and Scotland to the hiking trails and snowy mountains of the Alps. Moreover, Europe generally provides high quality transport, accommodation and restaurant facilities to tourists though those in Western Europe can be expensive compared to other tourist destinations. Only after the Second World War is Europes tourism industry considered truly developed. Due to factors such as increasing personal income, lengthening life expectancy and the reduction of working hours, the tourism industry has now grown to directly contribute US$581 billion to the total GDP (which is equivalent to 3.4%). However, since Travel & Tourism touches all sectors of the economy, its real impact is even greater. EUs Travel & Tourism economy directly and indirectly accounts for 9.9% of total GPD, which equals to US$1,668 billion, as described in the graph below.

European Tourism Industry after the Swine Flu Threat

Swine flus current situation

If the H1N1 virus mutates and results in a more severe outbreak in the autumn, this would hit the world economy just as it starts to recover from the credit crunch. It would interfere with economic activity, threaten already fragile businesses and put further strains on financial markets and fiscal balances. People would be reluctant to travel and would avoid public spaces. This could generate a vicious cycle that postpones the economic recovery as well as that of travel and tourism for another couple of years. As an illustration of a bad case scenario, Oxford Economics estimates that an epidemic in the UK with a 30% infection rate and a 0.4% death rate might knock 5% off GDP, including a 60% shortfall in tourist arrivals for six months and a 30% cut in discretionary spending by UK consumers. Such a scenario is not yet any more than a possibility which is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. In the meantime, consumers still have to face the weak economic environment. Although Europeans have been willing to postpone or cancel their secondary holidays, the majority are expected to protect their principal summer holidays, thus suggesting that arrivals Figures over the current quarter will be only slightly lower than those in the same period of 2008. But there is general agreement that consumers will be economizing: lengths of stay will be shorter and spending lower, and domestic travel may benefit at the expense of international destinations.

Contribution of Research in the Field of Study Although, the information and outspread of swine flu looks more of a healthcare issue, but it also highlights the issues, economies can face due to uncontrollable pandemic situations. Outbreak of Swine Flu is directly related to business and tourism industry. It helps a student to understand the direct relationship between healthcare and economics/business. As stated above in the conclusions, Oxford economics states that even a Swine Flu rumor can knock 5% off UK GDP. This statement exhibits a very serious correlation between the healthcare and the world economies. Business and economics students must have adequate information and knowledge about the damages in the past and reactions of the businesses to minimize the damage caused by such incidents. This mini-research project will guide students about the potential dangers and fragile nature of tourism industry with reference to health and safety. And it will enhance the vision of students regarding the reaction and steps taken by businesses and government worldwide as contingency plans to counter the negative effects of such outbreaks.

REFERENCES http://newsflavor.com/opinions/swine-flu-pandemic-potential-with-economic-effects/ http://www.tourism-review.com/travel-tourism-magazine-medical-pandemic-threat-tourismindustry-nightmare-category966 http://www.tourism-review.com/fm974/med.pdf http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/bizfocus/archives/2009/05/17/2003443795 http://news-economics.chailit.com/as-swine-flu-affects-our-economy.html http://aroundtheworldblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/hawaiis-tourism-industry-takes-bighit.html http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=15429 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8020552.stm