USDAWASDEReportCorn&GrainSorghumMarketImpacts

DanielOBrienExtensionAgriculturalEconomist,KStateResearchandExtension
September13,2011

Summary
TheSeptember12thUSDAreportsprojectedasignificantdeclinein2011U.S.cornyieldsand
production,significantrationingofusage,nearrecordtightendingstocks,andrecordhighcorn
prices.Grainsorghumproductionhasbeenhurtbydroughtinkeyareas,withpricesfollowingclosely
withthoseofcorn.
InitsSeptember12thCropProductionreport,theUSDANationalAgriculturalStatisticalService
projectedU.S.2011cornyieldstobe148.1bushelsperacreyield,thelowestyieldlevelsince148.0in
2005.Cornproductionwasprojectedtobe12.497billionbushels,slightlylargerthanin2010,but
markedlylowerthanJuly2011projectionsof13.470billion.IntheSeptemberWorldAgricultural
SupplyandDemandEstimatesreport,theUSDAprojectedthatsignificantpricerationingwouldoccur
inthe2011/12marketingyear,withmarkedreductionsinprojectedlivestockfeeduse,exports,and
ethanolusage.Corninputbuyersarelikelytofinditlessprofitabletobuyandproduceproductswith
recordhighcornpricesinthe$6.50$7.50rangeasprojectedbytheUSDA.
TheprojectedoutcomeoftheseverepricerationingprojectedforMY2011/12isthatendingstocks
areprojectedtodeclineto672millionbushels,with%endingstockstousefallingto5.3%.Thislevel
ofstockstouseisstillmarginallyabovetherecordlowof5.0%inMY1995/96,andifrealizedwould
bethesecondlowestonrecord.
Evenwiththeseprojecteddeclinesinsupply,2011U.S.cornyieldsandproductionprospects
continuetobeuncertain,withthepossibilityofyieldsandproductionestimatesbeingreduced
furtherbytheUSDAduetonumberofpossiblereasons,includinga)reductionsinharvestedacreage,
b)thepossibilityoffuturefreezedamageinthenorthernplains,c)moreextremedamageindrought
damagedareasofthecentralandsouthernplainsandthesoutheasternU.S.thancurrently
accountedfor,ord)simplyloweryieldsintheCornBeltthanhavebeenprojectedtodate.
GrainsorghumproductionintheU.S.in2011hasbeendamagedseverelybydroughtinthesouthern
andcentralPlainstraditionallytheleadingareasforU.S.grainsorghumproduction(i.e.,Kansasand
Texas).Grainsorghumstocksareatminimallevelslogisticallyspeaking,andgrainsorghumpricesare
followingcloselytothoseofcorn.
Thesereportspointtowardtightsupplydemandconditionsandhistoricallyhighfeedgrainprices
fromfall2011throughspringsummer2012.Therewilllikelybestrongpressuretoatleastmaintain
ifnotsignificantlyincrease2012U.S.cornacreageinanattempttorebuildorreplenishU.S.corn
supplydemandbalances.Grainmarketsin2012willlikelycontinuetobeextremelysensitivetoany
threatstoU.S.cornproduction.IfperchancedryconditionsweretocontinueintheU.S.in2012in
keycornandgrainsorghumproductionareas,highfeedgrainpriceswouldpersist,withthelikelihood
ofmajordamagingimpactsoccurringondomesticcornusingindustries.

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I.U.S.CornMarketSituationandOutlook
A. Lower2011U.S.CornProductionProspects:InitsSeptemberCropProductionreport,theUSDA
NationalAgriculturalStatisticalService(NASS)lowereditsprojectionof2011U.S.cornproduction
by3.25%,tolevelsthatwillmaintaincornpricesatahighlevelandleadtoseriousrationingon
cornusageinMY2011/12(seeTable1).
a. U.S.2011CornYields=148.1bu/acre:USDANASSprojected2011U.S.cornyieldsat148.1
bu/acre,downfrom153buinAugust.Cornyieldprospectsin2011havebeenaffectedbythe
cumulativeimpactofa)difficultspringplantingconditionsintheeasternandnorthernCorn
Belt,b)hot,dryJulyandAugustweatherinpartsoftheCornBelt,andc)continuingdroughtin
thesouthernandcentralPlainsandthesoutheasternUnitedStates.
i. Overthelast5years,U.S.cornyieldshavebeen150.7bu/acin2007,153.9bu/acin2008,
164.7bu/acin2009,152.8bu/acin2010,andarenowprojectedtobe148.1bu/acin
2011.
ii. Ifthe2011U.S.cornyieldprojectionof148.1bu/acholdstrue,therecordhighyieldof
164.7bu/acwillhavebeen7%higherthanthenexthighestyieldof153.9bu/ac(2008)
duringthisperiod,and8.8%higherthantheaverageyieldof151.4bu/acforotheryears
yieldssince2007.
Commentary:ExpectationsofU.S.trendlineyieldsof165bu/acormoresince2009have
notbeenmetineither2010or2011,andwilleffectivelyleadtolowertrendlinecornyield
projectionsfor2012.
b. U.S.2011CornProduction=12.497billionbushels:USDANASSprojected2011U.S.corn
productiontobe12.497billionbushels(bb),down417millionbu(mb)inAugust.Uncertainty
aboutfinal2011U.S.cornplantedandharvestedacreagestillexistsfollowingfromplanting
delaysinspring2011andmajorfloodingeventsalongtheMissouri,OhioandMississippi
riversandtheirtributaries.Ifadjustments/reductionsto2011cornplantedand/orharvested
acreagedooccur,itwilllikelybereflectedintheOctoberorNovemberUSDANASSCrop
Productionreports.
i. Overthelast5years,U.S.cornproductionhasbeen13.038bbin2007,12.092bbin2008,
13.092bbin2009,12.447bbin2010,andisnowprojectedtobe12.497bbin2011.
ii. Ifthe2011U.S.cornproductionprojectionof12.497bbholdstrue,thiswillbethethird
largestU.S.corncropinhistory,trailingonly2007and2009.
Commentary:TheinabilitytomeetU.S.trendlineyieldsof165bu/acormoresince2009
havecausedadramatictighteningofU.S.cornendingstocksand%endingstockstouse
inMY2010/11andagaininMY2011/12.EitherareturntotrendlineU.S.cornyields,a
largeincreaseinU.S.cornacreage,orasizablereductioninU.S.cornusagewillbeneeded
torebuildU.S.cornstocksinMY2012/13andlateryears.
B. OldCropU.S.CornSupplyDemandforMY2010/11:InitsSeptember12thWorldAgricultural
SupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE),theUSDAWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardmadea
numberofminoradjustmentstousage,endingstocks,andpriceestimates(Table1&Figure1).
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Smallincreasesinexports(1.835bb,up10mb),andnonethanolfood,seedandindustrialusage
(1.410bb,up10mb)ledtoincreasedtotaluse(13.265bb,up20mb),andtodecreasedending
stocks(920mb,down20mb).
a. %EndingStockstoUse(6.9%)&Prices($5.20/bu)forMY2010/11:Projected%ending
stockstouseof6.9%foroldcropMY2010/11isthethirdlowestsinceMY1973/74,behind
only5.0%inMY1995/96andtheprojectionof5.3%fornewcropMY2011/12.U.S.
averagecornpriceestimatesforMY2010/11wereloweredslightlyto$5.20perbushel,down
fromarangeof$5.20$5.30intheAugustWASDEreport.
C. NewCropU.S.CornSupplyDemandforMY2011/12:Inresponsetomarkedlylower2011U.S.
cornproductionprospects,initsSeptember12thWASDEreport,theUSDAWorldAgricultural
OutlookBoardmadeanumberofsignificantadjustmentstosupplies,usage,endingstocks,and
priceestimates(Table1&Figure1).ThesechangesreflecttheimpactofhighU.S.cornprices
andresultingrationingofusagethatisexpectedinresponse.
a. LowestU.S.CornTotalSuppliessinceMY2007/08=13.432bb:WithprojectedMY2011/12
beginningstocksof920bb(down20mbandthelowestsinceMY1996/97),2011production
of12.497bb,andimportsof15mb(down5mb),totalsuppliesofU.S.cornforMY2011/12
areprojectedtobe13.432bb.
i.

ProjectedtotalU.S.cornsuppliesof13.432bbforMY2011/12arethelowestsince12.510
bbinMY2006/07,andare5.8%belowtheaverageof14.262bbU.S.totalsuppliesforMY
2007/08throughMY2010/11(Table1&Figure2).
Commentary:Thecombinationoftightbeginningstocks(followingashortcorncropthe
previousyear)andlessthananticipatedproductionhasledtothecurrenttight,atrisk
supplysituationforU.S.corninMY2011/12.Fornextyear,i.e.,MY2012/13,prospects
forextremelytightbeginningstockswillplaceallthatmuchmoreanxietyincornmarkets
overanyrealorperceivedthreatto2012U.S.cornproduction.Becauseofwhatarelikely
tobeminimalnewcropbeginningstocksforU.S.corninMY2012/13,grainmarketsare
likelytoremainextremelyvolatilethroughatleasttheearlysummerof2012.

b. TotalCornUseDownto12.760bbinMY2011/12:Followingfromexpectationsofreduced
newcroptotalU.S.cornsupplies,theUSDAprojectedthatpricerationingwouldbringabout
significantcutsinU.S.cornusageinordertomaintainminimalrequiredendingstocksforMY
2011/12(Table1&Figure1).
i.

EthanolUse=5.000bb:TheUSDAlowereditsprojectionofU.S.cornusageforethanolin
MY2011/12to5.00bb,down100mbfromAugust.Ifthisprojectionholdstrue,itwould
bethefirstyeartoyearreductioninU.S.cornethanolusagesincetherecordtightending
stockstouseyearofMY1995/96.Concernsaboutwhetherethanoldemandwillmaintain
inlightofweaknessinthegeneraleconomyandtheuncertaintyabouttheimpactoflikely
changesingovernmentfundingforethanolblenderscreditsandtariffprotectionin2012
mayfactorintothisdownwardadjustment.

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ii.

NonethanolFSIUse=1.410bb:Nochangesweremadeinnonethanolfood,seedand
industrialuseofcornof1.410bb.ThisamountofnonethanolFSIuseisjustunderthe
recordlargeamountsof1.4161.422bbduringtheMY2005/06MY2006/07period.

iii.

ExportUse=1.650bb:TheUSDAlowereditsprojectionofU.S.cornexportsinMY
2011/12to1.650bb,down100mbfromAugust.Ifthisprojectionholdstrue,itwouldbe
the5thlowestamountofU.S.cornexportsMY1990/91following1.584bbinMY
1991/92,1.328bbinMY1993/93,1.504bbinMY1997/98,and1.588bbinMY2002/03.
Commentary:Increasedforeigncoarsegrainproductandtotalsuppliesoffsetsomeofthe
decreaseincombinedU.S.corn,grainsorghum,barleyandoatproduction,andmorethan
offsetsprojectedU.S.declinesinassociatedfeedgraintrade(Figure4).ComparedtoMY
2010/11,theUSDAisprojectingthatU.S.cornexportswhileberationedproportionally
morethanothercategoriesofusage.SinceMY2010/12USDAhasprojectedthatMY
2011/12U.S.cornexportswoulddecline10%,comparedtototalcornFSIuse(down0.3%)
andlivestockfeeduse(down6%).

iv.

Feed&ResidualUse=4.700bb:TheUSDAprojectsMY2011/12U.S.cornfeedand
residualuseto4.700bb,down200mbfromAugustanddown300mbfromtheprevious
year.Ifthisprojectionholdstrue,itwouldbelowestamountofU.S.cornfeedandresidual
usesince4.692bbinMY1995/96.
Commentary:ThisreductioninU.S.livestockfeedusageofcorncontinuestheyearto
yeardownwardtrendfromtherecordhighof6.135bbinMY2004/05.Theincreased
availabilityofdistillersgrainsfromethanolproductionfordomesticlivestockfeedinghas
tosomedegreeoffsetthisreductionindirectU.S.cornlivestockfeeduse.

v.

TotalCornUse=12.760bb:ForMY2011/12,theUSDAprojectsthattotaluseofcornwill
be12.760bb,down400mbfromAugust,anddownfrom13.265bb(down3.9%)inMY
2010/11.Ifthisprojectionisaccurate,MY2011/12usewouldbethelowestsince12.056
bbinMY2008/09and12.737bbinMY2007/08.
Commentary:InthesepreliminaryUSDAprojectionsofhowshortsuppliesandhighprices
willaffecttheusageofU.S.corninMY2011/12,theyareaccountingforanumberof
factors.Theseincludea)theinflexibilityofdemandandpriceresponsivenessofU.S.
gasolinedemand,b)livestock/meatpricesandfeedingprofitability,c)strengthof
consumerdemandforprocessedcornproducts,andd)thevalueoftheU.S.dollarrelative
tothecurrenciesofcountriesinvolvedinWorldcoarsegrainexport/importtrade.
Althoughtheseearlyprojectionsaresubjecttochange,theyareconsistentwiththe
broaderideathathighercornpriceswillrationusagetosuchadegreesoastoensurethat
adequatesuppliesofcornwillexistinthesummerof2012(theendofMY2011/12)to
avoidacompleteshutdownofindustriesthatrelyoncorninputs.

c. RecentCornUseTrends:RecentUSDAprojectionsoftighterlivestockfeedingofcorninMY
2011/12areacontinuationofasevenyeartrend(sinceMY2004/05)inthelivestockindustry
(Figure1).ExportsofU.S.Cornareprojectedtodeclineforthethirdconsecutiveyear(since
MY2009/10).Yeartoyearincreasesincornethanolusageareprojectedtocontinuebutto
moderateinresponsetohighcorninputprices,likelyethanolpolicychanges,andprospects
formoderationinU.S.gasolinedemand.
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C. NewCropEndingStocks(672mb)&EndingStockstoUse(5.3%):TheUSDAprojectsMY
2011/12endingstockstobe672mb,down42mbfromAugust,anddownfrom920mbinMY
2010/11andfrom1.708bbinMY2009/10.TheMY2011/12projectionequals5.3%ending
stockstouse,downfrom5.4%inAugust,from6.9%inMY2010/11,andfrom13.1%inMY
2009/10(Figure2).These%endingstockstouselevelscomparetothehistoriclowof5.0%in
MY1995/96.
Commentary:Itispossiblethat%endingstockstouselevelsof5.0%orlessmayoccurinMY
2011/12foranumberofplausiblereasons.Ifthereiseithera)projected2011U.S.corn
productionisreducedfurtherduetoearlyfreeze,moreextensiveproductionlossesexistthanhas
yetbeenaccountedfor,etc.,orb)greaterusageofcorninanyofthemajorcategoriesthanis
currentlyprojectedlaterinthemarketingyear,thenthereisareasonablepossibilityofnew
recordlowU.S.corn%endingstockstouseoccurring(i.e.,below5.0%)inMY2011/12.
WhereasuncertaintyaboutestimatesofU.S.cornproductiontypicallyaremostlyresolvedbythe
NovemberorfollowingJanuarycropproductionreports,questionsaboutwhethertherateof
usagewillleadtoreductionsinendingstocksareworkedthroughinthecashmarketinthe
laterpartofthemarketingyear.Ifcornusageisonamorerapidpacethancanbesustainedto
maintainalevelof5.3%endingsstockstouseforMY2011/12,thenitwilllikelybereflectedin
cashcornbasisbids,paceofexportsandethanolusage,andinquarterlystocksonMarch1st,June
1standSeptember1stin2012.
D. NewCropMY2011/12U.S.CornPrices=$6.50$7.50/bu.:U.S.cornpriceshaveresponded
sharplytothehighsideinresponsetotighteningofU.S.cornendingstockstouse.Thetrend
whichbeganinMY2010/11hascontinuedinMY2011/12,andisverylikelytopersistintoMY
2012/13(Table1&Figure2).
a. TheUSDAprojectedMY2011/12U.S.averagecornpricestoberecordhighintherangeof
$6.50$7.50perbushel,up$0.30oneachendoftherangefromAugust,andupfrom$5.20in
MY2011and$3.55inMY2009/10.
Commentary:Tightcornsuppliesandhighcornpriceshaveprovidedcarryoversupportfor
wheatprices.Byrespondingtohighcornprices,thewheatmarketappearstobe
acknowledgingthepossibilitythatlargeamountsofwheatfeedingcouldoccurinfromfall
2011throughsummer2012tomakeupforshortfallsinthe2011U.S.corncropand
historicallytightMY2011/12cornendingstocks.Asmarketarbitrageforcesgo,ascornprices
havemovedhigher,wheatpriceshavefollowedthematlevelsapproximatingbreakeven
feedingopportunities.
E. WorldCoarseGrainSupplyDemandTrends:Worlddemandgrowthintheformofbioenergyuse
andlivestockfeedingisaprimaryfactorexplainingrecordhighU.S.cornpricesalongwitha
likelysecondconsecutiveyearoflowerthanexpectedU.S.cornproduction(Figure3).Persistent
growthhasoccurredinU.S.andWorldusageforcornandothercoarsegrainssinceMY2007/08.
Thisresilientgrowthtrendhasoccurredeventhoughhistoricallyhighcorn/coarsegrainprices
haveoccurredin2008andagainin201011.
a. AlthoughMY2011/12Worldcoarsegrainproduction(1,131mmt)andtotalsupplies(1,294
mmt)weredown5.1and3.1mmtfromAugust,respectively,Worldcoarsegrainusedeclined
Page|5

5.9mmttoleaveprojectedWorldcoarsegrainendingstocksat150mmt(up2.75).World%
endingstockstouseisestimatedat13.1%,upfrom12.8%inAugust.Increasesinforeign
coarsegrainproductionandtotalsuppliescombinedwithincreasedforeignuseandending
stocksoffsettosomedegreethemajorchangesthatoccurredinprojectedU.S.feedgrain
supplydemandforMY2011/12.
Commentary:EvenwiththeprojectedincreaseinWorldendingstocks,Worldendingstocks
tousefromcoarsegrainshasdeclinedfrom17.6%inMY2009/10,14.4%inMY2010/11,and
nowto13.1%forMY2011/12.AbroadertrendtowardtighterWorldcoarsegrainending
stocksiscontinuing,witharecoveryneededinU.S.2012cropproductiontobegintorebuild
bothU.S.andWorldcoarsegrainsupplydemandbalances.
D. PersistenceofTightSupplyDemandforCornintoMY2012/13:Givena)thelikelihoodof
historicallytightendingstocksforU.S.corninMY2011/12andb)competitionforU.S.cropacres
fromsoybeansandothercropsinspring2012,concernsabouttheadequacyofU.S.cornsupplies
andsupplydemandbalancesarelikelytopersistintoMY2012/13,andtocausecornmarket
pricevolatilitythroughthe2012U.S.corngrowingseason.
**********
Table1.U.S.CornSupplyDemandBalanceSheet:MY2007/08throughMY2011/12
(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
Item
PlantedArea(millionacres)
HarvestedArea(millionacres)
Yieldperharvestedacre(bushels/acre)

BeginningStocks
Production
Imports
TotalSupply
Ethanolforfuel
NonethanolFood,Seed&Industrial
Exports
Feed&Residual
TotalUse
EndingStocks
%EndingStockstoTotalUse
U.S.AverageFarmPrice($/bushel)

2007/08
93.5
86.5
150.7

2008/09
86.0
78.6
153.9

2009/10
86.4
79.5
164.7

2010/11
88.2
81.4
152.8

2011/12
92.3
84.4
148.1

1,708
12,447
30
14,185
5,020
1,410
1,835
5,000
13,265
920
6.9%
$5.20

920
12,497
15
13,432
5,000
1,410
1,650
4,700
12,760
672
5.3%
$6.50$7.50

millionbushels

1,304
13,038
20
14,362
3,049
1,393
2,437
5,858
12,737
1,624
12.8%
$4.20

1,624
12,092
14
13,729
3,709
1,316
1,849
5,182
12,056
1,673
13.9%
$4.06

1,673
13,092
8
14,774
4,591
1,370
1,980
5,125
13,066
1,708
13.1%
$3.55

Midpoint=

$7.00

Page|6

Figure1.TrendsinU.S.CornUseandEndingStocks:MY2004/05throughMY2011/12
(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
7,000

6,135

6,115

5,858

5,540

5,182

5,125

MillionBushels

5,250

5,000

4,700

3,500
1,750
0
2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

MarketingYears
Feed+Residual

EthanolUse

Exports

OtherFSIUse

EndingStocks

Figure2.U.S.CornEndingStocksvsU.S.Avg.CashPrices:MY1973/74throughMY2011/12
(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
$8

150

$7

120

$6
$5.20

90
60

$5

$4.20 $4.06
$3.02

$2.63

$2.54
$2.55

$2.47

30

$2.54

$2.23

$2.05

$4

$3.24

$3.12 $3.21

$2.07$2.26

$1.94

$1.50
7.0

$3.55
$3.04

$2.71
$2.42
$2.43 $2.32

$2.37 $2.50

$1.94
$1.82

$3
$2

$2.00
9.0

5.0

U.S.Cash$perbu

%EndingStockstoUse

$7.00

6.9

$1

5.3

0
2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

$0

MarketingYear

U.S.Corn%EndingStocks/Use

U.S.CornPrice

Page|7

Figure3.WorldCornUsage&EndingStocks:MY2007/08thruMY2011/12

(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
1,200

MillionMetricTons

1.5%/yr
900

2.3%/yr

855
795 799 813 824

773 782

862
817 844

600

1.1%/yr

300

99 84 97 89 93

2.1%/yr
131 147 144 124 117

Production

MY2007/08

Usage

MY2008/09

MY2009/10

Trade

MY2010/11

EndStocks

MY2011/12

II.U.S.GrainSorghumMarketSituationandOutlook
A. 2011U.S.GrainSorghumProductionProspects:ExtremedroughtinthekeyU.S.grainsorghum
producingstatesofTexasand(partsof)Kansashavemarkedlydecreased2011U.S.grainsorghum
yieldandproductionprospects.
a. LowerYields&Production:TheUSDAprojected2011U.S.grainsorghumaverageyieldtobe
55.6bu/ac,up0.8bufromtheAugustCropProductionreport,butdownfrom71.8buin2010
and69.4buin2009(Table2).2011U.S.grainsorghumproductionisprojectedtobe244mb,
up3mbfromAugust,butdownfrom345mbin2010and383mbin2009.Extremedrought
andcompetitionfromothercropsforacreageareprimaryfactorsleadingtodecliningU.S.
grainsorghumproduction.
B. MY2011/12U.S.GrainSorghumSupplyDemandBalances:Duetolowerproductionandtotal
supplyandcompetitivefeedgrainmarketimpactsfromtighteningU.S.cornsupplies,projected
U.S.grainsorghumsupplydemandbalanceshavealsotightened,withemergingprospectsof
significantrationingofgrainsorghumusageinMY2011/12(Table2).
a. ReducedGrainSorghumUsageTrends:Afundamentallackofavailablesuppliesisleadingto
reductionsinU.S.grainsorghumusageinseveralmajorindustries.Alltypesorcategoriesof
grainsorghumusagehavedeclinedsubstantiallysinceatleastMY2009/10(Figure4).
b. MY2011/12GrainSorghumUsage:NochangesweremadeinMY2011/12U.S.grain
sorghumusagefromtheAugustreport.
C. EndingStockstoUse&GrainSorghumPrices:ProjectedMY2011/12U.S.grainsorghumprices
haverespondedsharplytothehighsideinresponsetotighteningofU.S.feedgrain(corn,grain
sorghum,barleyandoats)endingstockstouse.ThetrendtowardlowerU.S.grainsorghum
Page|8

stocksbeganinMY2009/10hascontinuedinMY2011/12,andisverylikelytopersistintoMY
2012/13(Table2).
a. Endingstockswereprojectedat26mb(10.6%S/U),up4mbfromAugust(reflectingthe4mb
increaseinprojected2011U.S.grainsorghumproduction).
Commentary:AlthoughprojectedMY2011/12%endingstockstouseof10.6%arehigher
thantheminimallevelsforcorn(i.e.,5.3%S/U).Theamountofendingstocksislikelyat
minimumpipelinelevelsforlogisticalneeds.
b. TheUSDAprojectedMY2011/12U.S.averagegrainsorghumpricestoberecordhighinthe
rangeof$6.30$7.30perbushel,up$0.30oneachendoftherangefromAugust,andupfrom
$5.15inMY2011and$3.22inMY2009/10.
**********
Table2.U.S.GrainSorghumSupplyDemandBalanceSheet:MY2007/08throughMY2011/12
(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
Item
PlantedArea(millionacres)
HarvestedArea(millionacres)
Yieldperharvestedacre(bu./acre)

BeginningStocks
Production
TotalSupply
Food,Seed&Industrial
Exports
Feed&Residual
TotalUse
EndingStocks
%EndingStockstoTotalUse
U.S.AverageFarmPrice($/bu.)

2007/08
7.7
6.8
73.2

2008/09
8.3
7.3
65.0

2009/10
6.6
5.5
69.4

2010/11
5.4
4.8
71.8

2011/12
5.3
4.4
55.6

41
345
387
85
150
125
360
27

27
244
271
80
110
55
245
26

millionbushels

32
497
530
35
277
165
477
53
11.1%
$4.08

53
472
525
95
143
233
471
55
11.7%
$3.20

55
383
438
90
166
141
396
41
10.4%
$3.22

7.5%
$5.15

10.6%
$6.30$7.30
Midpoint=

$6.80

Page|9

Figure4.TrendsinU.S.GrainSorghumUse&EndingStocksDuringMY2004/05thruMY2011/12
(September12,2011USDAWASDEReport)
320

MillionBushels

277
233

240
194

191 184

160

166

165

153

140

143

113

80

55

50

95

57

90

110
85

80
55

45
66

150
125

141

35
32

53

55

41

26

27

0
2004/05

2005/06

Feed+Residual

2006/07
Exports

2007/08
2008/09
MarketingYears

2009/10

Food,Seed&IndustrialUse

2010/11

2011/12

EndingStocks

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