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30-Aug-11
Initiating Coverage
Persistent Systems Ltd. (PSL) is a leading player catering to the unique outsourced product development space within the software development industry. The company operates in the telecom, computer infrastructure and life sciences domains and is focusing on developing capabilities in niche areas like cloud computing, business analytics, collaboration and mobility to complement its OPD service portfolio.
Key Data Year End Face Value (INR) NSE Code Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shares Outstanding (Mn) Market Cap (INR Mn) 52 Week High / Low BSE Sensex / CNX Nifty 1 - Year Average Volume March 10.0 PERSISTENT PERS.NS PERS IN 40.0 11,779 475 / 284 16,416 / 4,920 65,210
(INR mn)
Investment Rationale:
Strong Presence in the Outsourced Product Development (OPD) Sphere :
According to Zinnov, only 5% of the total global software development budget is currently outsourced to third party OPD players. This is expected to grow in the coming future and PSL is well equipped to capitalize on this situation. PSLs estimated market share in the OPD space is around 15% in India. The company's proven management and its strong relationships across the product eco-system will aid its growth as outsourcing increases going forward.
Growth in Emerging Technology Domains to boost Top Line Growth:
Key Financials Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Net Profit Net Profit Margin (%) EPS (Diluted)
PSL is focusing on four key themes Cloud Computing, Business Analytics, Collaboration and Mobility to drive future revenue growth. PSL sees a big opportunity to develop its capabilities within these sectors early on. As these are high growth segments, this focus will give it an edge over its peers as soon as these themes gain further traction. Currently, PSL derives nearly 40% of its total revenue from these themes alone.
Intellectual Property (IP) driven Revenue to improve Operating Profit Margins:
Key Ratios P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) ROIC (%)
PSL dedicates nearly 4 - 6 % of its technical work force especially for high yielding IP driven product development at any given time. Currently, revenue from IP driven initiatives contribute only 6.1% to total revenue. We believe this will increase to approximately 10% and 15% by FY12 and FY13 respectively, as more IP under development comes online and ready for deployment. Investment in Sales & Marketing to boost Client Mining:
June '10 June '11 38.9% 4.3% 23.9% 32.9% 38.9% 7.0% 24.6% 29.6%
Most of PSL's 300 active clients provide small sized (less than USD 1 mn) business to the company. Also 37 of its clients have annual revenue in excess of USD 1 bn with R&D budgets of nearly 10 20% of their total revenue. This provides a significant opportunity for PSL to tap into its current client base for increased business. The company is investing in its sales & marketing teams to aid in this process.
Valuation:
We believe PSL, given its niche offerings and higher than average operating margins, deserves a premium in comparison to its listed peers. The stock is currently trading at 9.8x and 8.5x its FY12 E and FY13 E earnings. Historically, the stock has traded at 11.3x its Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) earnings. We value the company at 10.5x its FY13 earnings estimate arriving at a price target of INR 381 per share. We initiate coverage on PSL with a BUY rating, indicating an upside of 23% from current levels. Aasim Bharde | aasim.bharde@unicon.in
CONTENTS
Particulars Page
Company Background ..............................................................................................................................................3 Industry Overview .....................................................................................................................................................5 Investment Rationale ..................................................................................................................................................9 Financial Analysis & Projections .............................................................................................................................12 Risks & Concerns ......................................................................................................................................................15 Peer Comparison ......................................................................................................................................................16 Valuation & Outlook ................................................................................................................................................17 Management Profile .................................................................................................................................................18 Achievements & Triumphs .......................................................................................................................................19 Facilities .....................................................................................................................................................................20 Persistent Systems Service Bouquet .......................................................................................................................20 Financial Statements ................................................................................................................................................22
Industry Verticals
Telecom & Wireless Infrastructure & Systems Life Sciences & Healthcare
68%
66%
69%
Infrastructure & Systems: PSL derives a majority share of its total revenue (69% in FY11) from the 'Infrastructure & Systems' vertical. Under this vertical, PSL offers complete analytics and data infrastructure solutions or components to its clients' software platforms. This data is used to analyze company operations, thus allowing clients to gain comprehensive knowledge about various factors affecting their business and develop solutions to improve efficiency. Telecom & Wireless: Around 20% of total revenue in FY11 was generated from the 'Telecom & Wireless' vertical. Using its in-depth knowledge and expertise of existing and emerging telecom technologies and business practices, PSL offers software solutions to telecom product development companies and carriers across handset, wireless and wire-line industries. Life Sciences & Healthcare: The 'Life Sciences & Healthcare' vertical's share is the smallest in terms of the company's total revenue, contributing around 11% of total revenue in FY11. Under this vertical, the company provides data management, integration & warehousing, data analysis - algorithms & visualization, data curation (automation of pipeline), web-based portals & web services, and connectors to seamlessly interface with third party applications.
Cloud Computing
Provides for better resource utilization through resource sharing and flexible pricing models like pay-per-use. This would reduce expenses and time to market for product companies. PSL is working with its clients to build the necessary components to enable them to deliver a high-performance cloud computing platform so that their products function in a high resource sharing environment.
Business Analytics
Allows companies to identify and understand meaningful patterns in their day-to-day work. This permits decision makers to make effective decisions. PSL assists its clients by building and deploying tools and other infrastructure that processes large volumes of data through data mining, statistical techniques and visualization to deliver domain specific insights. Large firms are developing collaboration strategies involving a common platform that would permit employees, customers and partners to connect and interact with each other. PSL develops such customized frameworks for its clients to integrate different collaboration techniques within their firms. Over the last decade, smart phone penetration in the corporate market has grown significantly. As a result, mobile telephony product companies are selling mobile internet connectivity products to handset manufacturers, wireless network manufacturers, etc. PSL has partnered with all major players in this eco-system and built frameworks to provide an integrated offering to clients.
Collaboration
Mobility
Going forward, these new technological themes can be key value generators for the company. Currently, these themes account for around 40% of total revenue.
Global Software Product Market USD 300 - 320 Billion Total R&D Spend (15%) USD 45 - 48 Billion Others (85%) USD 272 - 285 Billion
A
Concept (8%) USD 3.6 - 3.8 Billion
B
United States (73%) USD 32.9 - 35.0 Billion
C
Mature Products (75%) USD 33.8 - 36.0 Billion
D
Total In-House (95%) USD 42.8 - 45.6 Billion
Total Outsourced (5%) USD 2.3 - 2.4 Billion Note: 1. In-house includes off-shoring to Captive centers 2. Outsourced is only to third party service providers
India = USD 3.8 - 4.2 Billion China = USD 2.0 - 2.4 Billion
Furthermore, as most ISVs (especially those in the USA) have their own software development teams, a major portion (95%) of the global R&D spending budget is done in-house. The remaining 5% is outsourced to third party software developers.
Market Growth
C B
Growth Market Mature Market
D
Declining Market Fault Line! End of Life
A
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
Source: Investor Presentation - May 2011
Time
With products almost on the way of being phased out, ISVs usually share the IP of the product with their third party OPD partners in exchange for royalty revenue at times.
IT Services
Requirements (Fixed)
Time (Variable)
Time (Fixed)
Thus, unlike a typical IT project where requirements are fixed and time & money are variable, a product development project starts with fixed time and money constraints, keeping requirements variable. However, in OPD projects, all requirements can never be completely fulfilled in a particular version. As a result, developers plan multiple versions for their product.
Benefits of Outsourcing:
In the fast moving technology-heavy world of today, ISVs face intense competition to come out with newer versions of products in shorter periods of time while making optimum use of their limited resources on hand. ISVs efforts to achieve this short time-to-market is often constrained by shorter product life cycles, technological obsolescence, increasing design & engineering complexity and mounting cost pressures. By outsourcing product development to third party OPD players, ISVs are able to: Reduce costs Utilize resources on hand efficiently Focus on newer technologies Reduce risk of failure (in case of established OPD players)
Growth (%)
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
5.00% 0.00%
Mature Market
Declining Market
Unlike the usual IT services business, OPD players are seen as future development partners of ISVs. We believe PSL is well on its way to scale up its business model going forward due to its experience in this niche segment which spans over two decades as well as its relationships with marquee clients like Microsoft, IBM, Agilent, etc. This would result in better utilization of resources available on hand which would reflect positively on operating margins. PSL's strong and proven management team, its impressive client base and strong relationships across the product eco - system will help it further consolidate its position in the vastly fragmented OPD space in India.
Early investments in these key technology themes are yielding results for PSL. As of FY11, nearly 40% of top line revenue was generated from these themes. Going forward, we believe these themes will continue to improve revenue visibility for the company. Demand will be fueled especially by Cloud Computing, which is expected to grow to nearly three times in the CY09 - 13 horizon to USD 42.2 bn. Many large ISVs like IBM and Microsoft are planning to allocate nearly 80 - 90% of their total R&D budgets on strategies regarding cloud computing. This presents a significant opportunity for PSL to boost its revenues going forward. Such contracts also present PSL to improve revenues through the non - linear route (wherein fixed investments yield higher top line growth).
IP (% of Revenue)
IP (% of Revenue) 20.00% 16.00% 12.00% 8.00% 4.00% 0.00% Q1FY08
Source: Company, Unicon Research
Q2FY09
Q3FY10
Q4FY11
Q1FY13E
10
Strong Balance Sheet due to High Cash Reserves and Zero Debt
PSL has no debt on its books and has the capability to generate enough cash to sustain its business going forward. The company has strong cash reserves on its books (approximately INR 1 bn as of FY11) and is open to both organic and inorganic growth, especially in the European and Asia - Pacific region as it tries to reduce its dependency on the North American geography (86% of total revenue as of FY11). In the FY11 - 13 period, we expect cash-flow from operations to grow by 18% CAGR to INR 2.2 bn which in our opinion is more than sufficient to spend on any capital expenditure that PSL may require during this period, pay out as dividends or use for acquisitions.
11
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12 E
FY13 E
Scaling up of PSL's existing client budgets, increased R&D spending all around and focus of non - linear IP led initiatives like cloud computing, analytics, etc. would contribute to revenue growth in the coming future. We build a 22% CAGR top line revenue for the FY11 - 13 horizon. The management expects IP driven revenues to contribute 11% of total revenue in FY12. We are building a 10% contribution to total revenue in FY12 by IP initiatives and expect this to grow to 16% by FY13.
12
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12 E
FY13 E
76.00%
$13,600.00
$3,700.00
Onsite
72.00%
$12,800.00 $3,500.00
68.00%
$12,000.00 $3,400.00
64.00% Q1FY08 Q3FY08 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12
Source: Company, Unicon Research
$3,300.00
13
Offshore
$3,600.00
-40.00%
14
Rupee Appreciation Risk: More than 90% of the company's revenues are in US Dollar terms while most of its expenses are in Indian Rupees. PSL has an active hedging policy, as part of company strategy, wherein it hedges around 12 months of its net receivables with forward contracts. As of date, the company has hedges around INR 48 per USD. However, any significant appreciation of the Indian Rupee vis--vis major foreign currencies could significantly hurt our margin estimates.
Competition from Large Scale Players & Captives of Large ISVs: PSL is a mid-sized player catering to the small but niche OPD space. Its larger peers like Tata Consultancy Services have a small presence in the OPD space, but their focus lie in their own respective domains. If these companies turn their attention in full-fledge to this space, they will have the advantage of scale. Also multi-national product companies like IBM and Intel have set up captive centers in India to outsource certain processes in their product development chain. Such competitors would eat into PSL's market share in the sector and drive margins down.
Attrition & the Costs of Retention: The Indian IT industry has always had attrition as its main problem. The issue becomes more important for PSL as it employs only computer science graduates in its technical workforce. In the world of ever increasing competition, we believe PSL's workforce could be targets of poaching from rival firms, especially those who may be looking to expand in the OPD space. A sudden rise in attrition could lead to shortage of bench strength and reduce optimal usage of resources. As such, PSL will have to bear the pressure of wage hikes to retain and attract quality talent, affecting its margins going forward.
15
Company Hexaware Tech. Ltd. MindTree Ltd. Polaris Software Ltd. Geometric Ltd. Sasken Comm. Tech. Ltd. Peer Average Persistent Systems Ltd.
Market Cap (INR mn) 21068.3 13748.1 12906.0 2377.5 2566.6 N.A. 11779.0
EBITDA Margin (%) FY12 E 14.2% 13.2% 14.0% 12.2% 14.2% 13.8% 19.1% FY13 E 13.7% 13.9% 14.2% 12.8% 14.7% 13.9% 19.4%
ROE (%) FY12 E 18.8% 17.2% 18.3% 17.9% 10.2% 17.8% 14.9% FY13 E 19.8% 17.4% 18.5% 18.8% 10.1% 18.3% 15.2% 11.6 9.4 6.2 5.3 5.3 9.1 9.8
P / E (x) FY12 E FY13 E 10.3 8.1 5.4 4.2 4.9 8.0 8.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.5
P / B (x) FY12 E FY13 E 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.3
PSL's forward operating (EBITDA) margins are strong compared to its peers. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is comparatively less with respect to its peers. This is largely due to the effect of taxes on its bottom - line. We believe that PSL can match this ROE going forward and even better it in the future. The average peer-set ROE is 18.3% for FY13 E while that of PSL is 16.5%. On the P / E front, PSL is trading at a slight premium relative to its peers in FY12 E. We believe its unique position in the highly lucrative and niche OPD space justifies this premium over its peers who don't have a presence as strong as PSL. For FY13 E, PSL is currently trading at 8.5x its forward earnings, lower than its peer group. Also on the P / B parameter, PSL is trading at 1.5x and 1.3x its FY12 E and FY13 E book value per share which is similar to its peer group. All of these evaluations lead us to believe that PSL is a strong value buy and there is tremendous scope for a re-rating of this stock in the coming future.
16
17
Hari Haran
Nitin Kulkarni
Ranganath Puranik
T. M. Vijayaraman
Rajesh Ghonasgi
Mike Kerr
SVP - Sales
Dr. R. Venkateswaran
Vivek Sadhale
18
Acquired Infospectrum (US). Entered into JV with Sprint Nextel. Acquired Agilent Technologies (France). Entered a strategic partnership with Realcom (Japan).
Formed Persistent Systems & Solutions Ltd. (Pune, India), a wholly owned subsidiary.
2003-04 2004-05
2005-06
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Set up Persistent Systems Inc., Wholly owned subsidiary in the USA. Started operations at 'Bhageerath' (Pune, India).
Acquired Paxonix, Inc. Successful IPO listing on the BSE and NSE. Completes 20 year anniversary.
Formed Persistent Systems Pte. Ltd., wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore. Set up branch offices at Ottawa and Vancouver, Canada.
Source: Company
19
Goa
Hinjawadi, Pune
Nagpur
Research: Persistent Systems Ltd. (PSL) tracks new developments in the technology and software world on a constant basis. PSL develops a good understanding of the context and market requirements through this research which enables it to stay ahead of the curve and help customers incorporate new ideas into products. Usability Engineering: Usability engineering is an approach to product development that incorporates direct user feedback throughout the development cycle in order to reduce costs and create products and tools that meet user needs.
20
21
Profit & Loss Statement Net Sales Personne l Costs Ge neral & Administrative Expe nses Total Expenditure EBITDA De pre ciation EBIT Other Income Profit Before Tax Provision for Tax Net Profit
FY10
FY11
FY12 E
FY13 E
Cash Flow Statement Profit Before Tax De pre ciation Changes in Working Capital Tax Expe nse Cash Flow from Operations Purchase of Fixe d Assets Purchase of Investme nts Cash Flow from Investing Activities
FY10 1,240.7 335.2 126.4 (247.5) 1,238.6 (476.4) (1,141.6) (21.5) (5.5) 1,636.1 163.2 1,733.1 1,917.7 FY10 24.3% 18.8% 19.1% 22.2% 18.0% 36.9%
6,011.6 7,758.4 3,687.4 5,123.0 860.5 1,052.4 4,547.9 6,175.4 1,463.6 1,583.1 335.2 423.9
9,983.7 11,630.8 6,875.4 1,206.3 8,081.8 1,902.0 596.2 1,305.7 525.3 1,831.0 573.0 1,258.0 8,097.7 1,279.4 9,377.0 2,253.7 779.0 1,474.7 591.1 2,065.8 613.7
(7,089.0) (15,527.8)
(2,528.7) (2,100.0) (1,200.0) (239.7) (40.2) (712.3) 1,917.7 (1,665.7) 999.9 FY11 20.4% 14.9% 18.0% 20.1% 18.7% 27.9% (251.6) (42.8) (294.4) 999.9 (783.2) 216.7 FY12 E 19.1% 13.1% 12.6% 15.8% 14.9% 15.8% (290.4) (49.4) (339.8) 216.7 369.7 586.4 FY13 E 19.4% 12.7% 12.5% 16.1% 15.2% 15.5%
Dividends Paid Tax on Dividends Cash Flow from Financing Activities Opening Cash Balance
1,150.2 1,397.4
1,452.1
(INR Mn)
Balance Sheet SOURCES OF FUNDS: Share Capital Re serves & Surplus Shareholder's Funds De ferred Tax Liabilitie s Total Liabilities & Equity
FY10 432.0
FY11 434.8
Financial Ratios Profitability Indicators (%): EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Ne t Profit Margin RoA RoE RoIC
APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Gross Block Less: Accumulate d Depreciation CWIP Net Block Inve stme nts 3,714.8 4,542.8 1,881.2 2,281.5 484.8 604.5 2,318.4 2,865.8 1,561.7 2,500.4 6,642.8 2,877.7 604.5 4,369.5 2,500.4 7,392.8 3,656.7 604.5 4,340.6 2,950.4 Per Share Data: Sundry De btors Cash and Bank Other Curre nt Assets Loans and Advances Current Liabilitie s Net Current Assets Total Assets
Source: Company, Unicon Research
Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio Days Receivable s Days Payable s 2.5 73 104 2.3 69 75 1.8 64 66 2.1 67 64
Diluted EPS BVPS Valuation Ratios (x): P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA
32.1 159.7
34.9 186.8
31.5 210.9
36.3 238.7
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Disclaimer
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