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1100, 311 - 6 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta, T2P 3H2 403-262-0600

85 London Wall, London, EC2M 7AD +44-207-448-0200

www.firstenergy.com

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011

Total primary and thermal heavy oil/bitumen production from the Alberta oilsands regions declined
in May, with the decrease primarily attributable to a turnaround at Cenovuss Foster Creek project.
Long Lake production averaged 28.2 mbbl/d in May and 27.9 mbbl/d in Q2 2011. Nexen revised its
outlook for 2011 production in July, and is now expecting Long Lake to exit the year in the mid-30s
mbbl/d range, with production averaging 31 mbbl/d in the second half of 2011.
May production at MEG Energys Christina Lake project averaged 27.9 mbbl/d, and production for
the second quarter averaged 27.8 mbbl/d. MEG is currently steaming all 35 injection wells available
at Christina Lake, and all 35 producing wells now have electric submersible pumps (ESPs) installed.
Combined production at Cenovuss Foster Creek & Christina Lake projects averaged 104.5 mbbl/d
in May, as Foster Creek underwent an 18-day turnaround. Combined production for Q2 2011 averaged 116.6 mbbl/d. Cenovus announced in its Q2 2011 release that the partners have sanctioned
development of Christina Lake Phase C, as well as phases F, G, and H of Foster Creek.
Suncors Firebag project had its strongest month in nearly a year in May, averaging 57.6 mbbl/d,
while production at Mackay decreased ~7 mbbl/d from the previous month, due to a turnaround
averaging 25.8 mbbl/d. First oil from Firebag 3 occurred in July.
Production at Devons Jackfish project reached nameplate capacity of 35.0 mbbl/d in May, as volumes from the fifth pad at Jackfish 1 ramped up. Devon commenced steaming Jackfish 2 in May.
We have added Statoils Leismer SAGD project to our survey starting this month.

7.0

Cumulative SOR

6.0

Peace River

Athabasca

114

108

96

102

90

84

78

72

Tangleflags

66

Bolney-Celtic
60

Senlac

54

MEG

Leismer

48

Hilda Lake

42

Long Lake

36

Surmont

Tucker

30

Hangingstone

Jackfish

24

Firebag

Great Divide

18

MacKay

Christina Lake

12

Foster Creek

120

3.0

Time Since Project Startup (Months)


Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp., AccuMap by IHS Energy

Current Steam-Oil Ratios


6.0
Cumulative SOR
5.0

Cold Lake

700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000

Trailing 3-month SOR

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

300,000

Analyst: Michael P. Dunn, CFA

403-262-0643 mpdunn@firstenergy.com

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp., AccuMap by IHS Energy

Calgary Office 403-262-0600

CVE Christina Lake

STP Senlac

CVE Foster Creek

SU Mackay

DVN Jackfish

MEG Christina Lake

COP Surmont

HSE Bolney-Celtic

SU Firebag

JACOS Hangingstone

*Within ERCB oilsands boundary. Excludes oilsands mining.


Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp. and Accumap by IHS Energy

CLL Great Divide

Jan-10

Jan-08

Jan-06

Jan-04

Jan-02

Jan-00

Jan-98

Jan-96

Jan-94

Jan-92

Jan-90

Jan-88

Jan-86

Jan-84

Jan-82

Jan-80

STO Leismer

100,000

NXY Long Lake

200,000

HSE Tucker

bbl/d

4.0

1.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

800,000

5.0

2.0

Alberta Primary & Thermal Heavy Oil/Bitumen Production*


(Athabasca, Cold Lake, Peace River Oil Sands Regions)
900,000

SAGD Indicative Project SORs

8.0

SOR as of May 2011 (March 2011 for Saskatchewan projects)

Associate: Blair A. Lawson

403-262-0661 balawson@firstenergy.com

Ranking System: Top Pick (T) Outperform (O) Market Perform (M) Underperform (U) Speculative Buy (SB) Tender (X)

Page 1 of 7

The information contained herein is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. While the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document cannot be guaranteed by FirstEnergy Capital, it was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FirstEnergy Capital and/or its officers, directors and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell positions in the securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. FirstEnergy Capital (USA)
Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstEnergy Capital Holdings Corp. and operates as a Broker-Dealer in the United States.

Please refer to http://firstenergy.com/research/regulatory.php for Important Regulatory Disclosures.

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011


Operator
Project
SAGD Projects
Canadian Natural Tangleflags
Cenovus
Christina Lake
Cenovus
Foster Creek
Connacher
Great Divide
ConocoPhillips
Surmont
Devon
Jackfish
Husky
Bolney-Celtic
Husky
Tucker
JACOS
Hangingstone
MEG Energy
Christina Lake
Nexen
Long Lake
Shell
Hilda Lake
Southern Pacific Senlac
Statoil
Leismer
Suncor
Mackay River
Suncor
Firebag
SAGD (Total)
SAGD (Alberta)
SAGD (Saskatchewan)
CSS Projects
Canadian Natural Primrose / Wolf Lake
Husky
Pikes Peak*
Imperial Oil
Cold Lake
Shell
Peace River
CSS (Total)
CSS (Alberta)
CSS (Saskatchewan)
Total Alberta
Total Saskatchewan
Total

August 10, 2011

Thermal Bitumen Production by Project - Previous 12 Months


Jun 10

SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
SK

Jul 10

Aug 10

Sep 10

Oct 10

Nov 10

Dec 10

Jan 11

Feb 11

Mar 11

Apr 11

May 11

2010
May

2011 vs. 2010


bbl/d

3,401
14,397
100,671
6,705
20,184
32,113
10,931
3,624
7,338
26,364
27,069
3,329
3,750
0
32,213
57,185
349,274
331,191
18,082

3,490
14,975
100,816
7,311
22,209
29,300
11,058
4,206
7,125
25,277
28,723
3,629
3,954
0
32,322
58,376
352,772
334,270
18,502

3,277
14,660
95,251
9,175
22,467
28,288
11,044
4,377
6,797
27,000
25,074
3,504
3,735
0
32,476
57,056
344,182
326,127
18,055

3,214
14,227
107,653
10,857
21,259
8,449
11,132
3,728
7,478
5,311
24,036
3,673
4,328
208
21,446
35,348
282,349
263,674
18,674

3,324
15,369
99,418
12,413
23,631
14,337
11,630
3,532
7,132
28,367
28,977
3,698
4,741
524
30,571
49,555
337,221
317,524
19,696

3,317
15,990
104,805
13,313
23,218
27,311
11,299
5,123
7,643
28,166
26,280
4,038
4,510
883
34,991
54,445
365,332
346,207
19,126

3,662
17,231
106,385
14,004
23,417
28,616
11,088
6,246
7,106
26,754
29,126
3,971
3,772
1,135
33,306
54,390
370,210
351,688
18,522

3,581
17,319
111,666
11,840
23,696
30,670
10,482
6,505
6,320
28,789
27,052
3,980
3,837
2,253
33,909
56,834
378,734
360,833
17,900

3,495
17,381
117,356
14,077
23,860
30,784
10,300
6,348
6,880
26,956
23,042
4,152
3,666
3,948
31,049
54,828
378,123
360,662
17,461

3,284
17,174
118,654
13,791
22,254
31,845
10,173
6,002
6,431
27,149
26,242
4,381
3,336
5,666
31,174
53,865
381,419
364,626
16,793

n/a
n/a
12,247
16,480
116,636
88,031
14,159
12,652
22,944
22,602
31,741
34,974
n/a
n/a
6,222
6,527
4,997
4,969
27,581
27,914
26,463
28,204
4,504
1,746
n/a
n/a
7,022
9,008
32,900
25,798
56,066
57,562
363,482 336,465
363,482 336,465
n/a
n/a

3,088
15,543
101,460
5,179
20,953
31,491
11,809
1,297
7,669
24,440
23,521
3,257
4,092
0
32,556
54,765
341,119
322,129
18,990

n/a
937
(13,429)
7,473
1,649
3,483
n/a
5,231
(2,700)
3,474
4,683
(1,511)
n/a
9,008
(6,758)
2,798
14,337
5,328
n/a

n/a
6%
-13%
144%
8%
11%
n/a
403%
-35%
14%
20%
-46%
n/a
n/a
-21%
5%
4%
2%
n/a

93,755
5,928
139,426
6,820
245,929
240,002
5,928

90,533
5,954
139,668
6,687
242,842
236,888
5,954

85,844
6,059
143,795
6,996
242,694
236,635
6,059

75,615
5,933
137,671
6,280
225,499
219,566
5,933

82,384
5,913
145,002
5,583
238,881
232,969
5,913

110,163
5,988
148,507
6,141
270,799
264,811
5,988

114,611
6,072
149,813
4,713
275,209
269,137
6,072

116,454
6,150
153,553
5,003
281,161
275,011
6,150

94,160
5,947
155,609
5,085
260,801
254,853
5,947

77,228
5,490
161,977
5,094
249,790
244,300
5,490

84,040
n/a
161,255
5,191
250,487
250,487
n/a

107,107
n/a
159,420
3,046
269,573
269,573
n/a

97,132
6,074
138,977
7,424
249,606
243,533
6,074

9,976
n/a
20,443
(4,378)
26,041
26,041
n/a

10%
n/a
15%
-59%
10%
11%
n/a

571,193
24,010
595,203

571,158
24,456
595,614

562,762
24,114
586,876

483,240
24,608
507,848

550,493
25,609
576,102

611,018
25,113
636,131

620,825
24,594
645,419

635,844
24,050
659,894

615,515
23,408
638,924

608,926
22,283
631,209

613,969 606,039
n/a
n/a
613,969 606,039

565,661
25,064
590,725

31,369
n/a
31,369

6%
n/a
5%

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp., AccuMap by IHS Energy


*Pikes Peak uses a combination of CSS, SAGD, and steam drive production methods

Page 2 of 7

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011

SAGD Project Production per Well

Cenovus Christina Lake

Mackay

Firebag

Hangingstone

Christina Lake

Great Divide

Jackfish

Surmont

Tucker

Long Lake

Hilda Lake

Tangleflags

MEG

Senlac

Bolney-Celtic

Leismer

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR

20,000

10.0

18,000

9.0

16,000

8.0

14,000

7.0

12,000

6.0

10,000

5.0

8,000

4.0

600

6,000

3.0

400

4,000

2.0

200

2,000

1.0

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

Production (bbl/d)

bbl/d per Well

Production Capacity

1,200
1,000

800

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

54

60

Months After Well Start-Up


Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp., AccuMap by IHS Energy

*See page 7 for an explanation of type curve methodology.

Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

CNRL Tangleflags
Bitumen Production

Production Capacity

Cenovus Foster Creek

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR

7,000

Bitumen Production

9.0

6,000

Production Capacity

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR

140,000

10.0

10.0
9.0

120,000

8.0

8.0
100,000

6.0

4,000

5.0
3,000

4.0
3.0

2,000

2.0
1,000

Production (bbl/d)

7.0
Steam-Oil Ratio

7.0
6.0

80,000

5.0
60,000

4.0
3.0

40,000

2.0
20,000

1.0

1.0

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-01

Jul-10

Jul-09

Jul-08

Jul-07

Jul-06

Jul-05

Jul-04

Jul-03

Jul-02

Jul-01

Jul-00

Jul-99

Jul-98

Jul-97

Jul-96

Jul-95

Jul-94

Jul-93

Jul-92

Jul-91

Jul-90

Jul-89

Jul-88

Jan-02

Jan-01

Production (bbl/d)

5,000

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Steam-Oil Ratio

Foster Creek

Bitumen Production

Steam-Oil Ratio

2,200

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Page 3 of 7

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011


Devon Jackfish

Connacher Great Divide


Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR

25,000

Bitumen Production

10.0

40,000

9.0

35,000

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0
9.0
8.0

8.0

20,000

Production Capacity

30,000
7.0

5.0
4.0

10,000

Production (bbl/d)

6.0

15,000

Steam-Oil Ratio

Production (bbl/d)

7.0
25,000

6.0

20,000

5.0
4.0

15,000

3.0

3.0
10,000

2.0

2.0
5,000

1.0
-

Mar-11

Dec-10

Sep-10

Jun-10

Mar-10

Dec-09

Sep-09

Jun-09

Mar-09

Husky Bolney-Celtic

Production Capacity

Cumulative SOR

Bitumen Production

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0

25,000

9.0

14,000

8.0

12,000

15,000

5.0
4.0

10,000

3.0

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0
9.0

7.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

6.0

Cumulative SOR

8.0

7.0

20,000

Production Capacity

16,000

Production (bbl/d)

30,000

Production (bbl/d)

Dec-08

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

ConocoPhillips Surmont
Bitumen Production

Sep-08

Sep-07

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Jun-08

Mar-08

Mar-11

Dec-10

Sep-10

Jun-10

Mar-10

Dec-09

Sep-09

Jun-09

Mar-09

Dec-08

Sep-08

Jun-08

Mar-08

Dec-07

Sep-07

1.0

Dec-07

5,000

10,000

6.0

8,000

5.0
4.0

6,000

3.0
4,000
2.0

2.0

5,000

2,000

1.0

1.0

Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jan-11

Nov-10

Sep-10

Jul-10

May-10

Mar-10

Jan-10

Nov-09

Sep-09

Jul-09

May-09

Mar-09

Jan-09

Nov-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

May-08

Mar-08

Jan-08

Nov-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Steam-Oil Ratio

Production Capacity

Steam-Oil Ratio

Bitumen Production

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Page 4 of 7

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011

Husky Tucker
Production Capacity

MEG Christina Lake

Cumulative SOR

Bitumen Production

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0

35,000

15,000

4.0

Production (bbl/d)

5.0

7.0
6.0

20,000

5.0
15,000

4.0
3.0

10,000

2.0

3.0

10,000

9.0
8.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

Production (bbl/d)

6.0

10.0

25,000

7.0

20,000

Trailing 3-month SOR

30,000

8.0
25,000

Cumulative SOR

35,000

9.0

30,000

Production Capacity

5,000

1.0

2.0

5,000

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Apr-11

Feb-11

Oct-10

Dec-10

Aug-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Feb-10

Oct-09

Dec-09

Aug-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Feb-09

Oct-08

Dec-08

Aug-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Feb-08

Oct-07

Dec-07

Aug-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Feb-07

Dec-06

May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11

1.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

Bitumen Production

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

JACOS Hangingstone
Production Capacity

Nexen Long Lake

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR

12,000

80,000

9.0

70,000

Bitumen Production

Production Capacity

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0
9.0
8.0

8.0

60,000
7.0

6.0
6,000

5.0
4.0

4,000

3.0

Production (bbl/d)

7.0

8,000

Steam-Oil Ratio

50,000

6.0

40,000

5.0
4.0

30,000

3.0
20,000
2.0

2.0

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

May-11

Feb-11

Nov-10

Aug-10

May-10

Feb-10

Nov-09

Aug-09

May-09

Feb-09

Nov-08

Aug-08

Dec-10

Jun-10

Jun-09

Dec-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Jun-06

Dec-06

Dec-05

Jun-05

Dec-04

Jun-04

Dec-03

Jun-03

Jun-02

Dec-02

Dec-01

Jun-01

Dec-00

Jun-00

Jun-99

Dec-99

1.0

May-08

1.0

10,000

Feb-08

2,000

Nov-07

Production (bbl/d)

10,000

10.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

Bitumen Production

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Page 5 of 7

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011

Shell Orion

Statoil Leismer
9.0

8.0

16,000

8.0

7.0

14,000

7.0

12,000

6.0

10,000

5.0

8,000

4.0

6,000

3.0

4,000

2.0

2,000

1.0

3.0
2.0

2,000

1.0

1,000

Apr-11

Oct-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Apr-09

Oct-08

Apr-08

Oct-07

Apr-07

Oct-06

Apr-06

Oct-05

Apr-05

Oct-04

Apr-04

Oct-03

Apr-03

Oct-02

Apr-02

Oct-01

Apr-01

Oct-00

Apr-00

Oct-99

Apr-99

Oct-98

Apr-98

Oct-97

May-11

3,000

Apr-11

4.0

4,000

Mar-11

5.0

5,000

Feb-11

6.0

6,000

Jan-11

7,000

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0

18,000

Sep-10

Production (bbl/d)

8,000

Cumulative SOR

9.0

Dec-10

9,000

Production Capacity

Nov-10

10,000

20,000

Bitumen Production

Steam-Oil Ratio

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0

Oct-10

Cumulative SOR

Production (bbl/d)

Production Capacity

Steam-Oil Ratio

11,000

Bitumen Production

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Southern Pacific Senlac


Production Capacity

Cumulative SOR

Suncor Firebag
Trailing 3-month SOR
10.0

7,000

100,000

8.0

80,000

8.0

7.0

70,000

7.0

60,000

6.0

50,000

5.0

40,000

4.0

30,000

3.0

2.0

20,000

2.0

1.0

10,000

1.0

May-96
Nov-96
May-97
Nov-97
May-98
Nov-98
May-99
Nov-99
May-00
Nov-00
May-01
Nov-01
May-02
Nov-02
May-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
May-05
Nov-05
May-06
Nov-06
May-07
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11

2,000

Production (bbl/d)

3.0

Steam-Oil Ratio

Production (bbl/d)

4.0

1,000

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0
9.0

5.0

3,000

Cumulative SOR

90,000

6.0

4,000

Production Capacity

9.0

6,000
5,000

Bitumen Production

Steam-Oil Ratio

8,000

Bitumen Production

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

Page 6 of 7

For Regulatory Disclosures, Please Go to Our Website:


http://firstenergy.com/research/regulatory.php or fax us at (403) 262-0666
Our policy on the dissemination of research can be found at
http://firstenergy.com/research/regulatory.php

Thermal Oilsands Project Update - May 2011

August 10, 2011

Suncor Mackay
Bitumen Production

Production Capacity

Cumulative SOR

Trailing 3-month SOR


10.0

40,000

9.0

35,000

8.0
30,000

6.0

20,000

5.0
4.0

15,000

Steam-Oil Ratio

Production (bbl/d)

7.0
25,000

3.0
10,000

2.0
5,000

1.0

Apr-11

Oct-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Apr-09

Oct-08

Apr-08

Oct-07

Apr-07

Oct-06

Apr-06

Oct-05

Apr-05

Oct-04

Apr-04

Oct-03

Apr-03

Oct-02

Source: FirstEnergy Capital Corp, AccuMap by IHS Energy

SAGD project type curves are generated by setting the first month in which a well produces oil to T=1, and then taking a simple average of calendar day production for each
vintage. Thus, the number of wells constituting average production is largest closest to T=1 and typically decreases as the months after well start-up increases. Average
production at the tail end of each curve will be comprised of the wells that have been on production the longest (pilot wells in many cases), and thus we caution against
extrapolating future well performance from these curves, especially for younger SAGD projects. Our intent with this chart is to show an indicative well ramp up time
period for each project.

Page 7 of 7

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