Unit Information

Unit Overview

Understanding climate change - and its impacts on development - depends critically on understanding the scientific basis of the nature, causes and effects of climate change. That such understanding is vital is acknowledged by the structure of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has a Working Group (WGI) devoted to the understanding of the scientific basis of climate change. The presentation of the scientific evidence about climate change has, in the past, been highly contested, although greater consensus has recently emerged. This unit explains the scientific basis of climate change, including the nature of the global climate system and some key related concepts (such as the global energy budget, climate forcings, and feedback mechanisms). It introduces the concepts of natural and anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change - ideas that have provoked considerable debate and controversy - and it emphasises the complexity and interconnection of those drivers. Finally, it focuses on anthropogenic climate change in more detail, explaining its main causes.

Unit Aims To provide an overview of the science of climate change, including key concepts such as the heat
budget of the Earth, the greenhouse effect, climate forcings, and feedback mechanisms.

To introduce and distinguish between natural and anthropogenic climate change, and to highlight the
complexity and interconnection of the drivers of climate change.

Unit Learning Outcomes

By the end of this unit students should be able to:

define climate change and summarise the main components of the atmosphere and climate system explain the principal elements and physical processes involved in climate change, including influences
on the global energy budget, factors affecting radiative forcing, and different feedback mechanisms

distinguish between natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change, and describe, with
examples, their complexity and interconnections between them

detail and review critically the main processes of anthropogenic climate change Unit Interdependencies

This unit provides a basic understanding of climate science and systems and of climate change. It builds on the overview of climate change and development in Unit 1, as it demonstrates the complexity and scale of climate

systems and climate change. Knowledge of the climate science in this unit is essential for understanding later units' coverage, first, of the evidence for climate change, then of its multiple and complex causes and impacts as they relate to different types of human activity (in different sectors) and, finally, possible ways for responding to it - to try to limit both its extent and its negative impacts. When you have completed this unit you may like to relate what you have learnt to certain parts of Unit 1 by considering the following questions.

- In Unit 1, climate change problems were described as wicked problems - with high degrees of complexity, interactions, feedbacks, and uncertainty. Outline the main sources of complexity and uncertainty in climate science as described in this unit.

- Critically review the features of climate change outlined in Section 3.1 of Unit 1 that justified its characterisation as a pernicious environmental problem. How far are the claims made there supported by the climate science outlined in this unit?

Key Readings
1. Houghton J (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 18-33. This Key Reading should be studied after reading the whole unit and also the chapter by Stern (see below). This chapter provides an accessible introduction to the greenhouse effect and the idea of the Earth's radiation balance. It compares Earth's natural greenhouse effect with notions of the 'runaway' and enhanced greenhouse effects. You do not need to remember all the data provided in this chapter. It is important that you understand the principles and processes of the greenhouse effect as summarised in Figures 2.2, 2.6 and 2.7. Figure 2.5 shows how terrestrial thermal radiation is partially blocked out at certain wavelengths by the way that particular atmospheric gases absorb radiation at these wavelengths. This is apparent from the way that the red curve (of actual radiation) falls below the upper dotted grey curve: terrestrial thermal radiation in the absence of its absorption by greenhouse gases would lie just above the upper grey dotted grey curve labelled 7 o C. Discussion of the enhanced greenhouse effect on pages 29 to 31 and Figure 2.9 explain how changes in the absorption of terrestrial radiation by the atmosphere causes radiative forcing, and consequent warming of the Earth's atmosphere. This is a good illustration of the heat budget, and it also demonstrates the anthropogenic radiative forcing involved in increases in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. 2. Houghton J (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 34-68. Again, this Key Reading should be studied after reading the whole unit and also

the chapter by Stern (see below). This chapter explains the importance of greenhouse gases - especially of carbon dioxide - and their role in affecting radiative forcing. The chapter demonstrates that the principal radiative forcing over the last two centuries has been the increase in long-lived greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, although some of the effects of those gases have been partially offset by the effects of other atmospheric pollutants (such as sulphates). As you read take note in Figure 3.1 of the relative amounts of carbon held in the different components of the climate system (the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere) and of the net flows between these - with atmospheric accumulation of 3.3 Gt/year as the net balance between emissions from fossil fuels and cement of 6.3 Gt/year and net terrestrial and ocean uptake of 0.7 and 2.3 Gt/year, respectively (3.3 = 6.3 - 0.7 2.3). Note also (on page 37) the different timescales of carbon exchange and their effects on the time taken for a change in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere to work through all the other climate system components. You do not need to remember the detailed data on carbon isotopes or on the biological pump in the oceans - take note of the general processes. The main lesson to be drawn from Figure 3.4 is that if all carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from fossil fuels between 1990 and 2000 were held in the atmosphere then the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would be 382 ppm (on the horizontal axis), but this is reduced to 367 ppm by ocean uptake and by land uptake. The oxygen (O2) concentrations on the vertical axis just show that fossil fuel burning removes oxygen from the atmosphere and emits carbon dioxide (the ratio between the two determining the slope of the 'fossil fuel burning' arrow) and ocean uptake removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere without releasing any oxygen (the red arrow is horizontal). Land uptake, however, involves biological carbon sequestration with the release of oxygen by photosynthesis, and hence an upward sloping arrow (this is not as steep as the fossil fuel arrow because land uptake is not all through photosynthesis). On pages 48 to 49 note the main feedbacks discussed. In Figure 3.5 the main point to note is that comparison of (a) and (b) shows model predictions of the effects of feedbacks on land and ocean uptake of carbon dioxide and hence of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Note that land uptake is plotted below the axis purely to make it easier to separate it from ocean uptake (and the labelling below the axis should not be 1000 but +1000). Land uptake is reduced when feedbacks are allowed for as a result of increased respiration, forest (or boreal dieback), and forest fires. All these positive feedbacks override the negative feedback from carbon dioxide fertilisation. Ocean uptake is less affected by carbon dioxide emissions as there are fewer and smaller overall positive feedbacks. On pages 50 to 57 take note of the major characteristics of methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone as regards the major sources of each. Note that their importance as greenhouse gases depends upon (a) their concentration in the atmosphere, (b) the greenhouse effect of each molecule (as a result of their absorption of radiation, a consequence of their chemical structure), and (c) the length of time that the gases stay in the atmosphere. The latter two factors are used in estimates of the global warming potential of different gases as compared to the same quantity of carbon dioxide (often described as carbon dioxide equivalents). These are discussed on page 63 and detailed on page 296 of Houghton. On page 296 note the very high GWPs of different gases. Pages 57 to 63 contain important information on aerosols. Note their direct and indirect radiative forcing effects. Table 3.11 and (from page 63) the section on radiative forcing summarise the overall effects and relative importance of the different greenhouse gases and aerosols on radiative forcings. Note also the uncertainty regarding individual estimates and of the overall estimate of total net anthropogenic radiative forcing. You may find it useful to look back through this chapter and identify the various sources of uncertainty in these estimates.

3. Stern N (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 3-24. Pages 3 to 24 provide a succinct overview of the science of climate change, including some of the insights of the main climate change projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Further Readings
Clare D (2009) Reducing black carbon. In: 2009 State of the World: Confronting Climate Change. Worldwatch Institute, Earthscan, London, UK, pp. 56-58. Black carbon, a component of soot, is released as a result of incomplete combustion. It has a strong climate-forcing effect and some authors have argued that it is the second most important cause of global warming after carbon dioxide (CO 2). However, black carbon has a very short atmospheric lifetime, with the implication that efforts to reduce emissions of black carbon may have an almost immediate climate change mitigation effect. In this reading, the author argues that, whilst reducing greenhouse gas emissions should remain the primary focus of climate policy, efforts to reduce emissions of black carbon could play an important role in mitigating climate change in the short-term. Houghton J (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 69-92. This reading provides a historical context for current debates about climate change. By considering evidence of climate change for three periods in the past, the author points to the fact that climate change in the past has occurred relatively slowly, and that global climate has been relatively stable over the last 8 000 years, with the exception of the very rapid warming that has occurred during the 20th and 21st centuries. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_ wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm [Accessed 19 October 2009] This extensive, detailed document presents the authoritative view of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the physical science basis of climate change. It contains a wealth of information about climate change and it represents the output of Working Group I of the IPCC and the contribution of that group to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. In its various chapters the document provides detailed accounts of advances in scientific understanding of the human and natural drivers of climate change, of observed climate change, of climate processes and attribution, and of estimates of projected future climate change. This report also documents the significant progress that has been made in climate science since the last IPCC assessment; progress that is due especially to the analysis of new, more comprehensive data, o more sophisticated data analysis, to improved understanding of processes and model simulations, and to a greater focus on uncertainty ranges. Mate J. Davies, K, Kanter D (2009) The risks of other greenhouse gases. In: 2009 State of the World: Confronting Climate Change. Worldwatch Institute, Earthscan, London, UK, pp. 52-55. The effects of some of the main greenhouse gases are now well-known. However, other powerful, yet little-known, greenhouse gases are also emitted into the atmosphere. Those gases include the fluorocarbons (or F-gases), which are extremely potent

greenhouse gases. This reading explores the effects of, and the need to control, emissions of such greenhouse gases.

References
Adams WM (2009) Green Development: Environment and Sustainability in a Developing World, 3rd edn. Routledge, London. Archer D (2005) Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 C09S05, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625. Arrhenius S (1896) On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical Magazine 4 237-276. Barry RG, Chorley RJ (2003) Atmosphere, Weather and Climate, 8th edn. Routledge, London, pp. 1-373. Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, Beerling D, Berner R, Masson-Delmotte V, Pagani M, Raymo M, Royer DL, Zachos JC (2008) Target atmospheric CO 2: where should humanity aim? Open Atmospheric Science Journal. Available from: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf [accessed 13 November 2009] Houghton J (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 20-111. Hulme M (2009) Why we Disagree about Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007; Synthesis Report. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 30-78. Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf [Accessed 12 November 2009] Lenton TM, Loutre M-F, Williamson MS, Warren R, Goodess CM, Swann M, Cameron DR, Hankin R, Marsh R, Shepherd JG (2006) Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale. Technical Report 41, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich. Mate J, Davies K, Kanter D (2009) The risks of other greenhouse gases. In: 2009 State of the World: Confronting Climate Change. Worldwatch Institute, Earthscan, London, UK, pp. 52-55. Seinfeld JH, Pandis SN (2006) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change, 2nd edn. Wiley, Hoboken, New Jersey, pp. ix-1040. Smithson P, Addison K, Atkinson K (2008) Fundamentals of the Physical Environment, 4th edn. Routledge, London, p. 45. Stern N (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 3-24, 194. UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2000) World Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Maps and Graphics Library. Available from: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world-ocean-thermohaline-circulation [Accessed 21 September 2009] UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2002) Greenhouse Effect. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Available from: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/greenhouse-effect [Accessed 21 September 2009] UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2007) Historical trends in carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature, on a geological and recent timescale. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Available from: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/historical-trends-in-carbon-dioxideconcentrations-and-temperature-on-a-geological-and-recent-time-scale [Accessed 22 September 2009] United Nations (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United Nations, New York. United Nations (1998) Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United Nations, New York.

Interactive Features and Multimedia

Climate Change - Science. Videos of the Human Development Report 2007/2008. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/videos/ [Accessed 12 November 2009]

Weblinks and Portals

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces authoritative reports on the science and impacts of, and human responses to, climate change. http://www.ipcc.ch/ [Accessed 19 October 2009] The UK Met Office - and particularly its Hadley Centre produces state-of-the-art research into climate change and its effects. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/ [Accessed 19 October 2009]

The Met Office

1.0 The Global Climate System

Section Overview

This section provides an introduction to the global climate system. It describes the structure and composition of the atmosphere, and it explains some of the main aspects of the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. This section introduces the concepts of the heat budget of the Earth, the global heat engine, the natural greenhouse

effect, and the runaway greenhouse effect. It also provides some definitions of the terms 'climate', 'climate change', and 'climate variability', and considers some of the main components of the global climate system.

Section Learning Outcomes

By the end of this section students should be able to:

outline the structure of the atmosphere, energy flows in the atmosphere, and the heat budget of the
Earth

explain the greenhouse effect and its main determinants define the terms 'climate', 'climate change', and 'climate variability' list the main components of the climate system and discuss their respective roles in climate system
processes

1.1 The global atmosphere

The composition of the atmosphere

The Earth's atmosphere is a thin layer of mixed gases extending to a height of around 80 kilometres (km) above the surface; it envelops the Earth to a thickness of only 1% of the Earth's radius (Barry and Chorley 2003; Smithson et al 2008). Despite its tenuous nature, the atmosphere is essential to life on Earth: it is a source of oxygen for respiration, of carbon dioxide for photosynthesis and of nitrogen for nitrogen fixation; it shields organisms from biologically harmful ultraviolet solar radiation; it stabilises the temperature of the Earth's surface within certain limits (across the globe and between day and night and different seasons); and it generates and transports precipitation as part of the hydrological cycle. The atmosphere has been the subject of scientific interest for more than three centuries and the basic chemical composition of the atmosphere has been known since the end of the 19th century. The main constituent gases of the dry atmosphere are nitrogen (78.08%), oxygen (20.98%), argon (0.93%) and carbon dioxide (0.035%). Of course, in reality, the atmosphere - at least in its lowest layer (the troposphere) - is not dry but contains a significant, and highly variable, proportion of water vapour. In addition, an enormous range of other substances is present in the atmosphere in very small concentrations; some of those substances (such as the noble gases) are chemically inert whilst others (such as ozone) have effects that are disproportionate to their abundance.

The composition of the atmosphere is not constant over time. In general terms, the atmosphere had evolved to resemble its present form and composition by at least 400 million years ago, but it continues to change in some critical respects (Barry and Chorley 2003). Recently, evidence has accumulated of increases in the

abundance of some of the constituents of the atmosphere. In particular, substantial increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), tropospheric ozone (O3), sulphates, and soot particles have been recorded, indicating that the basic chemical composition of the atmosphere is changing more rapidly than had previously been thought. Furthermore, the constituents of the atmosphere are not independent of each other; they interact in complex ways. Thus, a change in one component of the atmosphere may lead to significant changes in others - and may also involve feedback mechanisms that amplify or dampen the original perturbation (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006). Therefore, the atmosphere is constantly changing, both in terms of its overall composition and in terms of the complex set of interactions of its constituent substances.

The structure of the atmosphere

Pause and consider for a moment why an understanding of the structure of the atmosphere might be important for understanding climate change. We may expect conditions in the atmosphere to vary with increasing height above the Earth, and that these conditions will affect the way that the atmosphere behaves. Understanding and communicating about these varying conditions and the way that they are involved in and are affected by climate change requires a knowledge and description of the atmosphere's structure.

The basic physical structure of the atmosphere is typically described in terms of the way temperature varies with increasing height above the Earth's surface. These variations follow a well-recognised pattern and they allow scientists to divide the atmosphere into several layers (for the purposes of description and analysis): these layers are the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere (see 1.1.1).

1.1.1 The temperature structure and main layers of the atmosphere

Source: based on Smithson et al (2008) p. 45.

In the lowest layer (the troposphere) of the atmosphere, the air immediately above the surface of the Earth is relatively warm. This is because the Earth's surface absorbs solar energy and then re-radiates that energy in the form of heat, warming the adjacent air. With increasing height above the surface, that warming effect is less pronounced, with the result that the temperature of the troposphere decreases with height above the Earth's surface. However, at the level of the tropopause, that pattern is reversed and the temperature of the atmosphere begins to increase with height; this effect is due to the influence of the 'ozone layer' in the stratosphere, which absorbs incoming ultraviolet radiation from the Sun and warms that layer of the atmosphere. Higher still, the warming effect of stratospheric ozone becomes negligible and in the mesosphere the temperature again declines with height until the beginning of the thermosphere. The thermosphere is the atmospheric layer in which ionic interactions produce a significant heating effect, with the result that temperature once again increases with height.

It is important to emphasise that, so far, although we have been considering variations in temperature at different heights within the atmosphere, we have not yet discussed anything that might be described as 'climate change'. Here, we are simply describing the natural temperature structure of the atmosphere, and we are noting that the temperature of the atmosphere varies naturally at different levels. That pattern is purely a

general, physical feature of the atmosphere, one that is a function of altitude above the Earth's surface rather than of any changes in the composition of the atmosphere that occur over time.

Energy in the atmosphere

As the Sun's radiation passes through the atmosphere to the Earth's surface, some of that radiation is absorbed or reflected by the atmosphere. There are several reasons why solar radiation may be absorbed or reflected as it first passes through the atmosphere. Above, we have mentioned that some of the incoming radiation (especially radiation in the ultraviolet part of the spectrum) is absorbed as a result of its interaction with stratospheric ozone. Some solar radiation is simply reflected back into space by substances in the atmosphere that are highly reflective, such as bright clouds and aerosol particles. The remaining incoming radiation passes through the atmosphere to reach the Earth's surface, but even there it may simply be reflected back into space by highly reflective surfaces such as ice and snow. The term used to describe the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (or atmosphere) is 'albedo'; thus a bright, highly reflective surface such as a frozen lake has much higher albedo than a darker surface such as exposed soil. If incoming solar radiation is not absorbed by stratospheric ozone, and if it is not reflected back into space by surfaces with high albedo, then it is absorbed by the Earth's surface (and to a lesser extent by the atmosphere just above it). That, however, is not the end of the story, as the radiation absorbed by the Earth's surface is subsequently reemitted at a longer wavelength, in the form of heat.

The heat budget of the Earth

We have noted above that the Earth receives energy as radiation from the Sun (incoming solar radiation) and some of this is reflected back into space but some is absorbed by the Earth's surface which then re-emits this energy at a longer (infra-red) wavelength, as outgoing terrestrial radiation

What do you think will be the relationship between incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's surface, outgoing terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earth's surface, and the temperature of the Earth's surface? We would expect incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's surface to heat the Earth's surface, and outgoing terrestrial radiation to cool the Earth's surface. Any difference between the heating effect of absorption of energy from incoming solar radiation and the cooling effect of the loss of energy from outgoing terrestrial radiation will lead to a change in the surface temperature of the Earth.

This is the case, and according to well-understood physical principles, the temperature of the Earth and the outgoing radiation should (in the absence of any interactions between the temperature and the composition of the atmosphere, which we discuss below) adjust with each other so that the solar energy reaching the Earth is balanced by the heat energy that is radiated from the planet (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006). This balance occurs because incoming radiation greater (or lower) than outgoing radiation causes the temperature to rise (or fall), and at the same time rises (or falls) in temperature lead to higher (or lower) rates of heat loss through outgoing radiation. As a result, if the incoming and outgoing radiation are out of balance - with incoming radiation higher (or lower) than outgoing radiation - then the imbalance causes increases (or falls) in temperature that in turn increase (or reduce) the rate of outgoing radiation. This process continues until outgoing radiation is equal to or balances incoming radiation. Put simply, changes in the Earth's temperature and in the outgoing radiation interact until there is balance in the energy reaching and leaving the surface. This balance is known as the 'heat budget of the Earth' (although other terms are sometimes used, such as the 'radiative budget for the Earth', the 'global energy budget', or the 'global radiation balance'). Again, it is important to emphasise that we are not yet talking about 'climate change'.

The heat budget of the Earth is simply a physical property of the Earth and of the energy it receives from the Sun. The Earth would have such a 'heat budget' even if it had no atmosphere whatsoever. Yet the concept of the heat budget of the Earth is a useful one because it highlights three key points:

that energy is constantly dissipated from the Earth's surface into the atmosphere that the energy radiated from the Earth's surface is of a different (longer) wavelength from that received from the Sun - a fact that has important implications for the climate, as we shall see later that if for whatever reason there is a change in incoming radiation, in the temperature of the Earth, or in the outgoing radiation then this will upset the balance in the heat budget and there will be consequent changes in the temperature and in outgoing radiation until the balance of the heat budget is restored

Another important feature of the heat budget of the Earth is that, whilst it must balance for the Earth as a whole, it does not balance at every individual point on the Earth's surface. Most of the solar energy that reaches the Earth's surface is absorbed in the tropical regions, whilst very little is absorbed in the polar regions, especially during winter (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006). This highly uneven distribution of solar energy absorption across the surface of the globe sets up and drives vast movements within the atmosphere and

oceans as heat is redistributed around the globe. The movement of energy through the Earth's surface, atmosphere, and oceans may be thought of as a vast 'engine' that is constantly transferring heat from the tropics to the poles. This 'global heat engine', in its ceaseless effort to equalise the temperature across the Earth's surface, gives rise to the large-scale patterns of winds, ocean currents, weather systems and climatic regimes that are familiar to people across the globe - and that collectively constitute the 'global circulation' (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006).

1.2 The greenhouse effect

The natural greenhouse effect

The atmosphere plays a critical role in the heat budget of the Earth. This arises because of an important point made earlier about the energy reaching and leaving the Earth's surface: the outgoing terrestrial radiation (of heat) is of a longer wavelength than the incoming solar radiation.

This difference is vitally important for climate - and for climate change - because many of the gases of the atmosphere absorb energy selectively: in other words, they absorb energy of particular wavelengths whilst allowing energy of other wavelengths to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded. In addition, the selective absorption by different gases in the atmosphere occurs at different wavelengths, so that they absorb energy in different parts of the energy spectrum, meaning that radiation of a given wavelength may be absorbed by the molecules of one species (such as water vapour) but not by those of another (such as carbon dioxide). For the atmosphere as a whole, it is then possible to construct an absorption spectrum illustrating the wavelengths of energy that are absorbed by the various constituents of the atmosphere.

There are two important points here.

First, relatively little of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the gases and particles of the atmosphere but, in contrast, a much greater proportion of the outgoing terrestrial radiation - which is of longer wavelength - is absorbed by the atmosphere, with the result that heat is retained in the atmosphere.

Second, the overall absorption of outgoing terrestrial radiation by the atmosphere depends upon its composition (constituent gases), as some gases absorb (and retain heat from) particular wavelengths more than other gases.

What are the implications of these two points for the heat budget of the Earth?

The first point (that the atmosphere is relatively transparent to incoming solar energy but it is more opaque to outgoing terrestrial energy) means that the atmosphere causes some heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, as the atmosphere significantly reduces outgoing terrestrial radiation but does not significantly affect income solar radiation. The second point (that the absorption of outgoing terrestrial radiation by the atmosphere depends upon its gaseous composition) means that the extent of heating by the atmosphere depends upon the composition of the atmosphere.

This phenomenon of heating of and by the atmosphere is known as the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is an important part of the Earth's heat budget, and thus the heat budget is affected by the composition of the atmosphere (see 1.2.1).

1.2.1 The Earth's heat budget and the greenhouse effect

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2002)

The metaphor of a greenhouse has been used to describe this phenomenon because it communicates the idea that heat is 'trapped' close to the Earth's surface, much as a greenhouse retains heat beneath its glass panels. This metaphor is illustrative rather than exact, however, because the heating effect of a greenhouse has much more to do with the way that the glass panels prevent heat losses from turbulent convection of air as compared with the way that localised heating occurs due to the selective absorption of energy by gases in the air. Nevertheless, the metaphor of the 'greenhouse effect' has become a popular and vivid way of representing the idea that heat is retained close to the Earth's surface by a 'blanket' of atmospheric gases. Hence the gases that are involved in absorbing some of the energy radiated by the Earth's surface are known as 'greenhouse gases'.

Greenhouse gases are well-known because they are a prominent theme in debates about climate change; we will have much more to say about greenhouse gases later, when we consider the central role that they play in anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change. However, it is important to emphasise that, at this stage, we have still not yet reached the stage of discussing climate change! The greenhouse effect described above is an entirely natural phenomenon and some authors underline this point by insisting that it should be described as the 'natural greenhouse effect'.

A vital phenomenon

The natural greenhouse effect occurs directly as a result of the composition of the atmosphere and the radiative properties of its constituents, especially of water vapour. The natural greenhouse effect is not a result of human activities (whose effects are discussed separately below); it is simply a consequence of the fact that the Earth has an atmosphere that contains gases (such as water vapour) that absorb energy. Thus, even in the absence of any human impact on the atmosphere, the natural greenhouse effect ensures that the temperature of the Earth is more than 20 C warmer than would otherwise be the case in the absence of the gases and particles of the atmosphere (Barry and Chorley 2003; Houghton 2009). The natural greenhouse effect has been a critical element in allowing the evolution of life on Earth, since it is unlikely that water would have existed in liquid form - or that even primitive organisms could have evolved - in its absence.

The 'runaway' greenhouse effect

Above, we have noted that the Earth displays a natural greenhouse effect due to the fact that certain gases in its atmosphere - notably water vapour - absorb heat energy and retain that energy close to the Earth's

surface. Another term is sometimes used in relation to the idea of the greenhouse effect: the 'runaway' greenhouse effect. The concept of the runaway greenhouse effect describes the situation that has developed on our neighbouring planet, Venus, due to the very high abundance of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere. Venus has a large amount of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere and carbon dioxide selectively absorbs more outgoing radiation wavelengths than incoming radiation wavelengths. This means that on Venus a very strong greenhouse effect allows very little of the heat radiated from the planet's surface to escape its atmosphere; the greenhouse effect on Venus has increased the planet's temperature by around 500 C (Houghton 2009). The result of that strong greenhouse effect has been to boil and evaporate all of the water that must, at one stage, have existed in liquid form on the planet. As water vapour accumulated in the atmosphere of Venus, it in turn acted as a strong greenhouse gas (since it too selectively absorbs more outgoing than incoming radiation) and this then led to further atmospheric warming. The concept of the runaway greenhouse effect has entered popular debates because of environmentalist concerns that the Earth's climate - as a result of human activities - could emulate that of Venus and become utterly inhospitable to life. However, as Houghton (2009) explains, such a scenario is unlikely to occur on Earth.

1.3 The climate system

Climate and climate change definitions

The subject of climate and the ways in which it changes has been the focus of scientific enquiry for a considerable period of time. Hence climate change is not a new environmental issue; in 1896, Svante Arrhenius suggested that the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities could increase global temperature (Arrhenius 1896; Houghton 2009; Seinfeld and Pandis 2006; Stern 2007). However, climate change - a term that encompasses increasing global temperature and its associated impacts - has gained much greater prominence in recent scientific and policy debates (Adams 2009; Houghton 2009; IPCC 2007; Stern 2007). Yet terms such as 'climate' and 'climate change' require careful definition, for climate varies naturally over all temporal and spatial scales (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006 p. 1027).

How would you define the term 'climate'? 'Climate' may be defined as the condition of the atmosphere over many years: 'the mean behaviour of the weather over some appropriate averaging time', which is conventionally taken to be 30 years (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006 pp. 4, 1026). Note that 'mean behaviour' may also include the amount of variability - for example the number of extreme events.

'Climate change' may be defined in various ways.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, has adopted a narrow view of climate change, defining it as 'a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods' (United Nations 1992 p. 3). The UNFCCC therefore makes a distinction between 'climate change', which is regarded as a purely anthropogenic phenomenon caused by human activities altering the composition of the atmosphere, and 'climate variability', which is attributed to natural causes (cf IPCC 2007; United Nations 1992). Given that its primary purpose is the task of curbing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, it is not surprising that the UNFCCC is concerned only with anthropogenic effects on climate.

In contrast, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 p. 30) has defined climate change more broadly as 'a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (eg using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity'. In this definition, the IPCC acknowledges that climate change has both natural and human causes; thus climate change may result from natural processes, such as variations in the Earth's orbit, as well as from anthropogenic changes, such as alterations in the composition of the atmosphere or of land-use patterns (IPCC 2007; Seinfeld and Pandis 2006).

IPCC also differs in its use of the term 'climate variability', which it takes to refer to variations in the means, standard deviations, and ranges of climate parameters on all spatial and temporal scales beyond those of individual weather events, although those variations do not necessarily amount to a trend over an extended period. In the IPCC's (2007) definition, climate variability, like climate change, may have both natural and anthropogenic causes. Overall, the IPCC's (2007) definition of climate change implies the existence of more consistent trends in climate variables beyond the periodic fluctuations that constitute climate variability. Such distinctions and nuances suggest that considerable care is required in defining and debating climate change. Nonetheless, it is worth acknowledging that, in popular usage and in many contemporary scientific debates, the term 'climate change' tends to refer only to anthropogenic climate change.

Components of the climate system

Terms such as 'climate', 'climate change', and 'climate variability' tend to evoke images that are strongly related to atmosphericphenomena: hot, cloudless days; droughts; intense rainfall; melting glaciers; and tropical storms (although images of rising sea levels are also prominent). Whilst atmospheric phenomena are indeed a critical aspect of climate (and of climate change), is important to remember that the global climate system is much larger than the atmosphere alone.

What do you think are the main components of the global climate system? Broadly, the global climate system consists of several distinct, yet interrelated, systems: the atmosphere; the oceans; the cryosphere (ice); the lithosphere (geology); and the biosphere (biota).

It is worth pointing out that some authors classify the component parts of the global climate system in different ways (in order to emphasise particular aspects of climate, or in order to focus on the behaviour of particular subsystems). For instance, some people use the term 'hydrosphere' (water) - which includes both terrestrial (freshwater) and marine (saltwater) components. In addition, all of these systems may be subdivided further into smaller systems, such as soil, vegetation, permafrost, or glaciers.

Climate scientists devote considerable effort to understanding the behaviour of each of the large-scale systems

atmosphere ocean cryosphere lithosphere biosphere

that constitute the global climate system - and the linkages between each of them. The significance of some of these systems for global climate may not be immediately apparent, yet they may far outweigh the atmosphere in terms of their importance.

All of these interrelated systems are involved in the processes of absorbing, transferring, and redistributing energy at the global scale; hence they all form interconnected parts of the global heat engine. They are also

important in their interactions with the atmosphere as regards greenhouse gases - as they variously store and release these gases. We briefly consider each of these in turn.

The atmosphere has been the focus of much of this section, in terms of its composition, structure, and the importance of greenhouse gases in the global heat budget. Brief mention was also made of the role of winds which, with ocean currents, redistribute energy from the tropical to the Polar Regions. Another important element of the atmosphere in the climate system are clouds, which both reflect some incoming solar radiation away from the Earth's surface and reflect some outgoing terrestrial radiation back to the Earth. The balance between these effects differs between different types of cloud at different altitudes (and of course between day and night). The presence and absence of cloud also affects land and sea surface temperatures - in different ways in different areas at different times. Winds and atmospheric temperatures also affect the water vapour content of the atmosphere, and since water vapour is an important greenhouse gas, this also affects the Earth's heat budget. Winds, temperatures and clouds are also important determinants of precipitation (principally rain and snow) and winds are also important in driving ocean currents. Finally, it is important to mention the importance of aerosols in the atmosphere, small particles which reflect incoming solar radiation with their reflectivity varying according to their size and composition, and their altitude in the atmosphere.

The oceans play a number of major roles in the climate system. First, they are a major but slow absorber of heat energy. The water contained in the oceans has a much greater specific heat capacity than air, meaning that it can absorb much more heat than air for a given temperature change - thus the top few metres of the water in the oceans contains as much heat as does the entire atmosphere (Houghton 2009). As the oceans are so deep, they absorb energy and heat up slowly, as it takes very long periods of time (hundreds of years) for them to adjust completely to temperature changes in the atmosphere. Second, ocean currents play a major role in transferring heat from the tropical to the Polar Regions, principally through the global thermohaline circulation also known as the ocean 'conveyor belt'. This is illustrated in the figure in 1.3.1. This shows how warm water moves east to west along the surface of the ocean (across the Indian Ocean) and up the Atlantic. As it nears Greenland it cools and sinks. It then proceeds south back down the Atlantic and then back from west to east across the Antarctic, before heading North across the Pacific, warming as it goes until it completes the loop (with a similar loop in the Indian Ocean). The convection current is driven by temperature differences in polar and tropical regions affecting the density of water, but water density is also affected by the concentration of salt. Thus, for example, the evaporation of water from the warm shallow current in the Indian

Ocean and southern Atlantic makes it more dense, and this later strengthens the down-current in the North Atlantic. Winds are also important in driving currents.

1.3.1 The world ocean thermohaline circulation

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2000)

Third, the oceans are a major heat source for the atmosphere, through evaporation and the rising of warm water vapour from the oceans into the atmosphere. This is of course also very important for the formation of clouds and for precipitation.

The fourth role of the oceans in the climate is their storage of greenhouse gases. Apart from the evaporation of water vapour affecting the greenhouse gas concentrations discussed above, the oceans also trap large amounts of carbon dioxide in two ways. First, carbon dioxide dissolves in water and second, marine organisms contain large amounts of carbon which was originally absorbed from the atmosphere (or from the ocean) by plants. When these organisms die, many of them sink down to the ocean floor. This is the process by which some fossil fuels were formed in the past and some carbonate rocks were also formed through a similar process, trapping carbonates in the shells of marine animals.

Ice exists in the cryosphere in glaciers, sea ice (for example, over the North Pole and around Antarctica), ice caps (over Greenland and Antarctica), and permafrost, including lakes (in northern Russia). Snow and ice have important albedo effects, increasing the reflection of solar radiation from the Earth's surface. Large amounts of fresh water held in glaciers and ice caps would, if melted, affect the salinity of the oceans and this, particularly its local effects, could affect the thermohaline circulation discussed above. Snow and ice also affect seasonal temperature patterns and winds. Finally, permafrost affects soils containing large amounts of organic matter (peat) and methane, is therefore an import store of greenhouse gases.

The major climate impacts of the lithosphere are relatively constant and unaffected by other elements of the climate system (as they are determined by tectonic plate movements and the global pattern of continental land masses), but these are important when considering long-term climate changes and influences in geological history. Short-term impacts on climate (or weather) arise from large volcanic eruptions which may release large amounts of gases or of ash and other aerosol particles into the atmosphere. The lithosphere also contributes relatively small amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through weathering of rocks.

The biosphere plays a major role in the climate system through its sequestration and storage of carbon dioxide. Living organisms and detritus hold over three times as much carbon dioxide as the atmosphere, and 2.5 times as much CO2 as the surface ocean, but only 6% of the CO2 stored in the deep ocean (IPCC, AR4, WG1, Figure 7.3). Carbon dioxide sequestered in the past, in geological history, is held in fossil fuels. Sequestration and release of carbon dioxide by the biosphere is strongly affected by different aspects of the climate system discussed above - surface temperature, precipitation - and hence most immediately by the atmosphere and oceans. Anaerobic decomposition of organic matter (for example, in paddy fields and ruminant digestion and landfill sites) also contributes to methane emissions into the atmosphere.

Anthropogenic activities - agriculture, deforestation and other land-use changes - make a major contribution to the release of greenhouse gases from the biosphere. Burning of fossil fuels also contributes carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These activities may also release aerosols into the atmosphere.

This brief description of the global climate system demonstrates some of the intimate linkages that exist between its components. In fact, the linkages between those different systems are so tightly integrated that the global climate system is sometimes termed the 'Earth-atmosphere-ocean system' (Barry and Chorley 2003 p. 2).

How does the fact that the global climate system encompasses much more than the atmosphere alone affect the task of understanding and responding to climate change? The atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere are each very large and complex systems that behave in different ways over different timescales. Their complex and varied interactions in the climate system make it very difficult to predict with certainty the range, scale and timing of possible multiple impacts of changes in the climate system.

Understanding climate change is further complicated by the range of different factors that can and do cause climate change

2.0 Climate Change

Section Overview

This section provides an introduction to some of the key concepts associated with the subject of climate change. In recent debates about (anthropogenic) climate change, it is often pointed out that global climate has changed dramatically over geological timescales. It is now well-understood that climate is not static but highly dynamic: it changes constantly over all spatial and temporal scales. This section covers the topics of natural climate change, the reconstruction of past climates, climate forcings, feedback mechanisms, radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity. It therefore provides a foundation and context for understanding recent debates about anthropogenic climate change.

Section Learning Outcomes

By the end of this section students should be able to:

outline major climate changes in the past define and distinguish between and list the major types of internal, external and radiative forcing, and
discuss the relationships between them

2.1 The climatic record

Climate is dynamic

The 'climatic record' provides a means of understanding how climate has changed in the past. Reconstructions of climates in the distant past (palaeoclimates) have transformed scientific understanding of the nature and

behaviour of the global climate system. At one time, it was believed that the global pattern of climate was a static, constant, and predictable one (Hulme 2009). By the 1960s, however, overwhelming evidence had accumulated to suggest that the widely-held view of climate as unchanging was no longer tenable (Barry and Chorley 2003).

Evidence of dramatic changes in climate included the insights - obtained from geology and palaeography - that the Earth had undergone a succession of prolonged 'ice ages' (glacials) and warmer intervening periods (interglacials), as well as many, shorter cold periods (stadials) and warm periods (interstadials) superimposed on those longer period variations. Advances in geological and palaeographic dating methods have allowed scientists to reconstruct previous climates with increasing precision. In addition, the development of the 'astronomical theory of climatic changes' - initially by Croll and subsequently by Milankovitch - provided a convincing explanation of how dramatic changes in climate could be linked to variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun (Barry and Chorley 2003).

Other palaeographic and palaeoclimatological studies have provided reconstructions of various changes in climate due to natural alterations in the composition of the atmosphere and to global-scale geological and tectonic processes. Those natural climate changes have occurred both on evolutionary timescales (such as the changes in atmospheric circulation that have occurred in response to the changing distribution of the Earth's tectonic plates) and on much shorter timescales (for example, as the result of the release of gases and particles from volcanic eruptions). Scientific knowledge of palaeoclimates has developed rapidly and reconstructions of past climates may now be made with remarkable precision; such reconstructions reveal that the history of Earth's climate has been characterised by large-scale, and sometimes abrupt, changes. Indeed, global climate is now understood to be a naturally complex and dynamic system: it displays changes at all spatial and temporal scales, even without taking into consideration any of the effects of human activities.

Ice ages and climate forcings

Over geological timescales, global climate has alternated between generally warm conditions and 'ice ages' characterised by lower global mean surface temperatures and major continental ice sheets (Barry and Chorley 2003). At least seven major ice ages have occurred during Earth's history. Although the term 'ice age' refers to a general, prolonged cold period, it should be noted that considerable variability in temperature has occurred both within and between those ice ages. During the ice ages, vast ice sheets formed over the continental land-

masses. The more recent ice ages involved the formation of ice sheets over what is now North America and northern Europe; during earlier glacial periods, the configuration of the continental land masses was different owing to the fact that continents have moved over geological time due to the process of continental drift.

The fact that the glacial events - as well as the smaller-period stadials and interstadials within those glacials have occurred with considerable regularity has led scientists to search for, and to identify, various forcing factors (or 'climate forcings'): in other words, driving mechanisms of climate change. Those climate forcings include both external and internal forcings; external forcings refer to processes originating outside of the atmosphere (such as variations in solar output, astronomical effects, tectonic processes, and volcanic eruptions), whilst internal forcings refer to processes originating within the atmosphere (such as changes in atmospheric composition and cloud cover; Barry and Chorley 2003). The major ice ages of the climatic record have occurred due to a combination of and interaction between external and internal forcings.

The last glaciation reached its maximum around 20 000 years ago and then ended abruptly approximately 14 700 to 13 000 years ago (although a short, cold interlude occurred between 12 900 and 11 600 years ago). By 10 000 years ago, at the beginning of the most recent period of geological time (known as the Holocene), the climate warmed rapidly and the ice sheets of continental Europe and North America were in retreat. A thermal maximum occurred around 5000 years ago, which was followed by another temperature decline and by wetter conditions in Europe and North America. Fluctuations in temperature have continued to occur since that time, and more recent temperature variations have been relatively well-documented: they include a warm phase in around the year 1300 CE (common era) and a cold phase between 1450 and 1700 CE (known as the 'Little Ice Age'). A variety of smaller period climate fluctuations have also been identified, such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Why is it important to study climate change in the past? Variations in climate demonstrate that natural climate change is the normal state of affairs, at all spatial and temporal scales. This forms the context in which more recent, anthropogenic climate changes should be interpreted. The study of climate change in the past also allows investigation of the natural causes of climate changes, of the ways that different parts of the climate system behave and interact in responding to these causes, and of the multiple impacts of these various changes.

Reconstructing past climates

The climatic record is reconstructed by scientists using a wide variety of techniques. A major source of information about palaeoclimates is the record stored in the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica that extend to heights of several kilometres. By drilling and removing ice cores from these ice sheets for analysis, scientists have access to a record of atmospheric conditions that extends back for over 500 000 years (Houghton 2009). Within the ice cores, small bubbles of air are trapped; analysis of those air bubbles reveals the composition of the atmosphere at the time at which various strata (layers) of the ice sheet were formed. Analysis of the isotopes of oxygen present in the ice cores can also provide valuable information about the variation in temperature in polar regions at various times in the past, since a heavier isotope of oxygen (18O) is present in the ice caps in varying concentrations depending on the average temperature at the surface (since
18

O levels depend on the rate of evaporation of sea water and the rate of snowfall accumulation).

Further palaeoclimatic information can be obtained from corals and from sediment cores drilled from the ocean floor; those methods adopt a similar approach to the analysis of ice cores, since the
18

O content of ocean water

varies with temperature and can be used to reconstruct the total volume and extent of the polar ice caps at different times in the past. In addition, analysis of radioactive isotopes (such as
14

C) can yield information that

may be used to date evidence from coral and sediment cores (Houghton 2009). By using a variety of different palaeoclimatic techniques, scientists have reconstructed the climatic record over many hundreds of millennia.

The figure in 2.1.1 shows variation in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and in temperature over the past 400 000 years as estimated from the ice cores and in the last 500 years. Note the correlation between these two variables. It should also be noted that variation in polar average temperature is approximately twice the variation in global average temperature (Houghton 2009)

2.1.1 Historical trends in carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature, on a geological and recent timescale

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2007)

What can the correlation between historical atmospheric carbon concentrations and temperature in the figure in 2.1.1 tell us about the causes of climate change? The existence of a correlation between these two variables by itself provides no information on whether high temperatures cause high carbon dioxide concentrations, or high carbon dioxide concentrations cause high temperatures, or indeed if both are caused by some third factor. The knowledge that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas might suggest that high carbon dioxide concentrations are a contributor to the higher temperatures that they are correlated with. However, we still need to determine the causes of historical variation in carbon dioxide concentrations and the processes and extent of possible positive feedbacks whereby high temperatures might increase carbon dioxide concentrations.

2.2 Climate forcings and feedbacks

External and internal forcings

Global climate is determined by a combination of various climate forcings (in other words, driving mechanisms of climate change) and feedback effects. As mentioned above, climate forcings include both external and internal forcings.

External forcings originate outside of the atmosphere; they include solar variability, astronomical effects, tectonic processes, and volcanic eruptions, and are briefly described below.

Solar variability occurs because the Sun is a variable star whose irradiance varies over an 11-year solar cycle (the 'Sunspot cycle') and whose magnetic field varies over a 22-year period. Periods during which the activity of Sunspots and solar flares is reduced correspond with reduced temperatures on Earth.

Astronomical variations include three principal cyclical changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun: (a) variations in the eccentricity of the orbit; (b) variations in the obliquity (tilt) of the Earth's axis; and (c) a 'wobble' in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation, which leads to a phenomenon known as the precession of the equinox.

Tectonic processes may influence global climate by redistributing the continental land masses of the globe through the process of continental drift; the concentration of land masses at high latitudes causes the more rapid accumulation of snow and ice sheets which, in turn, alter the albedo of the Earth and climatic patterns.

Volcanic eruptions may inject large quantities of dust and sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere especially in previous periods of Earth's history when volcanic activity was much greater than at present - and may cause global climatic cooling, although with pronounced regional variations.

Internal forcings originate within the atmosphere (although they may be stimulated by external forcing, through a variety of mechanisms and feedback effects, which we discuss later); they include changes in atmospheric composition and cloud cover (Barry and Chorley 2003). Whilst changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) are now well-documented and are prominent in discussions about anthropogenic climate change, the composition of the atmosphere has varied considerably through geological time for natural reasons. These include

Growth in the biosphere (both on land an in the oceans) with increasing carbon dioxide sequestration by plants and 'locking up' of organic carbon in living matter (for example, in trees), in detritus on the surface and in soils, and in sediments (coal, oil and gas).

Major changes in the Earth's thermohaline circulation - the transfer of cold, salty water in the oceans have, in the past, also caused dramatic changes in vegetation patterns, and thus in large changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations.

Changes in cloud cover have accompanied changes in the distribution of continental land masses and ocean basins (as a result of the process of continental drift), since the occurrence of large, shallow seas in low latitudes leads to increased rates of evaporation and, in turn, to increased cloud formation.

Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere may arise as a result of changes in the biosphere (sequestering carbon dioxide as described above) or in global temperatures (changing evaporation from the oceans and the water vapour content of the atmosphere).

Another form of internal forcing involves changes in the extent of the cryosphere affecting the extent of snow and ice and hence the Earth's albedo.

Feedback mechanisms

Global climate change cannot be understood purely in terms of the effects of single or simple climate forcings, whether those forcings are external or internal. This is because the global climate system involves the complex interaction of various constituent systems, including the ocean, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere; these systems exhibit multiple interactions that occur over an enormous range of spatial and temporal scales. The behaviour of these systems and their interactions is not fully understood and, in addition, attempts to understand their functioning are hindered by the way that human activities now exert impacts that tend to obscure the magnitude and rate of underlying natural processes.

It is clear, however, that climate change involves the operation of a multitude of feedback mechanisms: processes that have the effect of modifying the original perturbation. Feedback mechanisms may be positive (if they have the effect of amplifying the original perturbation) or negative (if they have the effect of dampening the original perturbation). In addition to (external and internal) climate forcings, climate change involves a vast array of positive and negative feedback mechanisms whose effects add up to an overall 'climate response'. Unsurprisingly, the task of understanding - or even identifying - the behaviour of all the significant feedback mechanisms that influence global climate is a daunting task for climate scientists.

Positive feedback mechanisms are common in the global climate system; in particular, they tend to amplify temperature rises. An example of a positive feedback mechanism is the increase in evaporation rates that accompany a rise in global average temperature: greater evaporation leads to an accumulation of water vapour in the troposphere and, since water vapour is a greenhouse gas, its rising concentration will tend to exacerbate the original temperature rise. Another positive feedback mechanism associated with rising temperature is the reduced capacity of land and ocean sinks to absorb carbon dioxide, with the result that

anthropogenic carbon dioxide tends to accumulate in the atmosphere more rapidly and to compound the original temperature rise (IPCC 2007). Many other examples of positive feedback mechanisms could be cited: for instance, a rise in global average surface temperature leads to the melting of glaciers, ice sheets, and permafrost (reducing albedo and, in the last case, releasing methane and carbon dioxide), and to the increased occurrence and severity of forest fires (also releasing carbon dioxide), all of which tend to exacerbate the original temperature rise.

Negative feedback mechanisms are less numerous and they actually tend not to cause global cooling, although they may moderate the rate of temperature increase. Greater uncertainty also surrounds the subject of negative feedback mechanisms, although some authors have argued that increased global average surface temperature may lead to increased evaporation and thereby to increased cloud cover - and that this effect may partially offset the original temperature rise (Barry and Chorley 2003). Another example of (weak) negative feedback is the way that increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide can lead to increased carbon dioxide uptake by oceans and by plants.

From the point of view of climate modellers, feedback mechanisms - both positive and negative - represent a profound challenge to the task of understanding climate change because, even if the sign (positive or negative) of a feedback mechanism is known, the magnitude of the effect may be very difficult to quantify. It is not difficult to appreciate that the existence of even a relatively small number of feedback mechanisms can complicate the task of understanding the climate response considerably - yet a vast multitude of feedback mechanisms exists, operating at all spatial and temporal scales. A further complicating factor is that feedback mechanisms - and climate processes more generally - may behave in a non-linear fashion, meaning that the magnitude of their effects may be determined by more than one variable and may be extremely difficult to predict. The existence of non-linear positive feedbacks leads to the possibility of 'tipping points', where temperature increases reach a point where positive feedbacks may reinforce each other, leading to sustained natural processes that reduce albedo and increase the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and hence global temperatures. The term 'tipping points' may also refer to non-reversible changes in parts of the global climate system. By consulting the Key Readings for this unit and other sources (web resources, textbooks etc), identify major possible 'tipping points' and/or Earth/climate system changes, noting down the positive feedback processes which are involved, and their possible effects.

2.3 Radiative forcing, climate sensitivity

Radiative forcing

We have noted that the various driving mechanisms that cause global climate to change - whether for natural or anthropogenic reasons - are collectively known as 'climate forcings' (Barry and Chorley 2003). As suggested above, natural climate changes have occurred - and continue to occur - as a result of external climate forcings such as the astronomical variations in the Earth's orbit, tectonic activity, and volcanic eruptions, and internal forcings such as changes in the composition of the atmosphere. All external and internal forces lead to changes in the balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing terrestrial radiation. Any imbalances that result are immediate drivers of global temperature change and therefore are a direct climate forcing, and is therefore described as a 'radiative forcing'. Radiative forcing may be positive or negative; thus a positive radiative forcing implies that the atmosphere becomes warmer, whilst a negative radiative forcing implies a cooling effect.

The relationships between external, internal and radiative forcing are illustrated in the figure in 2.3.1. You may like to refer back to the earlier description of external and internal forcings and feedback effects as you look at this figure. It shows how a range of different external climate forcings may cause changes in net solar radiation while a range of internal forcings may cause changes in terrestrial radiation - and some of the external forcing may stimulate internal forcings, as explained earlier. There are also multiple feedback effects and interactions between the different internal forcings in the climate system. Changes in net solar radiation or in terrestrial radiation caused by external or internal forcings lead to changes in radiative forcing, and this, in turn, leads to changes in terrestrial radiation (a negative feedback effect) and to other positive and negative feedback effects on the climate system and on internal forcings.

2.3.1 External, internal, and radiative forcings, and global temperature change

Source: unit author

Since radiative forcing refers to the balance of energy in the Earth's atmosphere, it is expressed in units of watts per square metre (W m-2). For reasons of consistency and standardisation, radiative forcing is typically measured at the top of the troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere). Therefore, formally, radiative forcing is defined as the change in the average net radiation at the top of the troposphere. The concept of radiative forcing is an extremely useful one in understanding climate change because it offers a consistent, standardised means of expressing the effects that a wide range of factors - whether natural or anthropogenic may have on global climate. Furthermore, the concept of radiative forcing permits us to define climate change in yet another way: as the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing, regardless of whether that forcing is positive or negative.

Climate sensitivity

Human and natural factors influence global climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere by which energy is scattered, absorbed, and re-emitted. We have noted that changes in those factors are known

as radiative forcing, which provides a measure of the significance of particular climate change mechanisms. Furthermore, the concept of radiative forcing describes a perturbation of (or change in) the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere in units of W m-2, with positive values indicating atmospheric warming whilst negative values imply cooling (Houghton 2009). This allows the convenient quantification of the radiative forcing effects of various natural events and human activities. However, measuring 'radiative forcing' is not the same thing as measuring 'climate change' directly. How good a measure of climate change is radiative forcing? If we are to use the concept of radiative forcing as a 'surrogate' for climate change, it is helpful to know how accurate such an approximation is.

Fortunately, there is a very close relationship between radiative forcing and a standard measure of climate change - global mean surface temperature. Indeed, global mean radiative forcing displays an approximately linear relationship with global mean surface temperature change (Seinfeld and Pandis 2006). Therefore, it is fairly safe to assume that the same radiative forcing - from whatever source - will result in the same climate response. This allows us to introduce another important term in relation to climate change: that of 'climate sensitivity'. Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much the climate is expected to change in response to a given perturbation. This concept is useful as it provides a way to compare the different projected climate responses that accompany various scenarios of future levels of economic activity and types of social and political organisation.

Another, related concept that is useful as a means of expressing and communicating the effects of different future scenarios is that of the 'equilibrium climate sensitivity'; this is defined as the equilibrium global average surface warming following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Thus the equilibrium climate sensitivity expresses the climate response to a sustained radiative forcing of known magnitude, the projected doubling of global carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007). The climate sensitivity is estimated by the IPCC (2007) from an assessment of various climate modelling results to be in the range of 2 C to 4.5 C, with a best estimate of 3 C and the same estimate is reached by Hansen (2008) from analysis of historical data ice-core data.

3.0 Anthropogenic climate change processes

Section Overview

We conclude this unit with a very brief consideration of how anthropogenic activities may influence the climate and cause climate change. We do not in this unit consider in any depth the evidence for anthropogenic activities actually driving climate change. Two principal processes are considered: the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and the accumulation of aerosols and associated changes in albedo.

Section Learning Outcomes

By the end of this section students should be able to:

list the main 'anthropogenic greenhouse gases' and describe their radiative forcing characteristics discuss ways in which human activities lead to the accumulation of these greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere

describe the radiative forcing effects of different aerosols explain the importance and causes of uncertainty in climate change predictions

3.1 Anthropogenic greenhouse gases

Overview of greenhouse gases

In previous sections we have seen that the atmosphere contains a diverse mixture of gases and particles, some of which play an important role in absorbing some of the energy radiated by the surface of the Earth and thus giving rise to the greenhouse effect, whether that greenhouse effect is natural or anthropogenic ('enhanced'). In particular, the so-called 'greenhouse gases' of the atmosphere selectively absorb outgoing radiation at various wavelengths and thereby help to retain heat in the atmosphere.

What do you think are the major greenhouse gases? This question is not as easy to answer as one might think as it depends upon what we mean by 'major greenhouse gases'. The two gases that are currently responsible for the greatest radiative forcing in the atmosphere are water vapour and carbon dioxide. Other significant greenhouse gases that are found naturally in the atmosphere are methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3). The major anthropogenic greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). These are listed in declining importance as regards volume of anthropogenic emissions but in (broadly) increasing potency as regards the global warming potential of each gram of gas in the atmosphere.

Although the term 'greenhouse gas' has acquired a strongly negative connotation as a result of concerns about the significance of a major waste product of industrialised societies (carbon dioxide) it is important to remember that, in themselves and in the right quantities, greenhouse gases are not necessarily harmful to species, ecosystems or habitats. Indeed, the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been vital in the evolution of life, both in ensuring that global temperatures are supportive of life as it has evolved, and in other ways that they are used in photosynthesis, respiration, and other life processes.

Many of the gases present in the atmosphere act as greenhouse gases to some extent, and the assortment of greenhouse gases includes such substances as benign and ubiquitous as water vapour. Although water vapour is a major greenhouse gas (in terms of its importance in 'trapping' heat in the atmosphere), it is an important component of other environmental systems and processes (such as the hydrological cycle) and its concentration in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature and other features of the climate system. Increasingly acute concerns about anthropogenic climate change have focused attention on six main greenhouse gases (or groups of gases) in international climate change negotiations: carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) (United Nations 1998).

The importance of different gases in promoting global warming depends upon

1. 2.

their concentration in the atmosphere the greenhouse effect of each molecule (as a result of their absorption of radiation, a consequence of their chemical structure)

3.

the length of time that the gases stay in the atmosphere

The latter two factors are used in estimates of the global warming potential (GWP) of different gases as compared to the same quantity of carbon dioxide. This allows quantities of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide to be converted to, and expressed in terms of, their 'carbon dioxide equivalent' (CO 2-equivalent or CO2e) values (Houghton 2009; Stern 2007).

It must be noted, however, that global warming potential and hence the calculation of carbon dioxide equivalent for different gases varies with the time period being considered, as different gases differ with regard to the time that they stay in the atmosphere - gases that are more long-lived than carbon dioxide therefore have higher 200 year GWP and CO2e values than 100 year GWP and CO2e values (100 year values being those

normally used). Conversely the most widely used HFC has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime as compared with CO2 and hence its 20 year GWP (3830) is over 2.5 times its 100 year GWP (1400) (Mate et al 2009).

The most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, due to both its relative abundance and its long atmospheric lifetime and, consequently, it has become highly prominent in contemporary debates about anthropogenic climate change. The accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is expected to result in climate change on timescales ranging from decadal to millennial, and carbon dioxide may potentially affect the climate system for hundreds of thousands of years (Archer 2005; Houghton 2009; IPCC 2007; Lenton et al 2006). Carbon dioxide is used as the basis for calculating global warming potential (GWP, as discussed above) because it is the anthropogenic greenhouse gas of principal concern.

Two important naturally occurring greenhouse gas emissions are omitted from the list of 'anthropogenic greenhouse gases': water vapour (H2O), and ozone (O3). Water vapour is omitted for reasons outlined earlier. Human impacts on concentrations of ozone in the atmosphere are similarly affected not so much by direct anthropogenic emissions as by the effects of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere, as these break down ozone. This process is well known in relation to another, different global environmental issue: that of the depletion of the polar stratospheric ozone layer. The issue of stratospheric ozone depletion should not be confused with that of climate change, and it is the latter issue which concerns us here. It should be noted however, that

ozone is greenhouse gas, but its radiative forcing effects are complex because although ozone in the troposphere has positive (ie greenhouse gas) radiative forcing effects in the troposphere its presence in the stratosphere has weaker negative radiative forcing effects which undermine its overall strength as a greenhouse gas;

the international agreement for controlling chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere (the Montreal protocol) is often discussed as a model for climate change negotiation and agreement processes; hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gases promoted for use under the Montreal protocol to reduce ozone depletion have the potential to become serious greenhouse gases if they accumulate in the atmosphere, as discussed below.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas accumulation processes

So long as the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases remain constant, there is no imbalance in the radiative budget for the Earth, and hence no radiative forcing and no climate change. However, any change in the abundance of greenhouse gases is likely to cause radiative forcing and climate change. The most important

cause of anthropogenic climate change is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially the accumulation of carbon dioxide.

Can you suggest two broad ways in which human activities are promoting an accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere? Human activities may directly release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and human activities may lead to a reduction in the rate at which greenhouse gases are absorbed from the atmosphere.

An accumulation of greenhouse gases is now occurring for several reasons. First, and most significantly, greenhouse gases are emitted directly as a result of various human activities - especially the combustion of fossil fuels (such as coal, gas, and oil). Fossil fuels represent concentrated stores of organic (carboncontaining) material that, when burned, is oxidised to release carbon dioxide and water vapour. Over many centuries in some cases, industrialised societies have burned coal, gas, and oil in order to supply energy for the processes of production, heating, cooling, and transport. The emission of carbon dioxide as a result of fossil fuel combustion is compounded by the direct emission of other greenhouse gases: methane is released from the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter (in the digestive systems of cows and other ruminants, in flooded rice cultivation, and in the decomposition of waste in landfill sites, for example); nitrous oxides are released when nitrogen fertilisers break down in soils; and various artificial compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are released in different manufacturing processes and when pieces of equipment such as refrigerators are scrapped.

Another reason why greenhouse gases are now accumulating in the atmosphere is the fact that the 'sinks' that naturally absorb those substances are being destroyed or degraded as a result of human activity. Thus, whilst combustion processes result in the release of carbon dioxide and water vapour to the atmosphere, other processes - notably photosynthesis by plants - drive the opposite reaction: they absorb carbon dioxide and water vapour from the atmosphere and release oxygen in their place. The clearance of forests and the destruction of other vegetation by humans means that a major sink for carbon dioxide is lost, with the result that the greenhouse gas that would otherwise be removed from the atmosphere instead accumulates.

When a sink is actually destroyed, this may cause both the loss of absorption of emissions and the release into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases previously stored in the sink. This is a major issue in forest clearance if is then burned (as is often the case): the carbon that is stored in that biomass is then released to the atmosphere, thereby compounding the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Soil degradation is another major example of this process.

Where sink degradation is caused by rising atmospheric temperatures or other associated climate changes (such as reduced rainfall) then the subsequent release of stored greenhouse gases may lead to positive feedbacks. Such processes are involved in possible tipping points associated with the loss of rainforests, boreal forests, and the release of methane from melting permafrost.

3.2 Aerosols and albedo

Accumulation of aerosols

Besides the accumulation of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic climate change occurs for other reasons, notably, as a result of the emission and formation of aerosols (which are particles suspended in the atmosphere) and due to changes in the albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth's surface.

How do you think that anthropogenic climate change may be affected by aerosols? Small particles released into the atmosphere as a result of human activities may have a cooling effect if these particles have a direct or indirect (through cloud formation) effect of increasing albedo (reflection of solar radiation) or a warming effect if they reflect thermal radiation directly or indirectly (through other types of cloud formation).

The effects of aerosols on radiative forcing are complex! Indeed, the full effect of greenhouse gases is partially concealed by the effects of aerosols (such as soot and sulphate particles), which both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and which enhance cloud formation, resulting in an overall cooling effect on the atmosphere. In considering these effects, we need to be aware that there are a variety of kinds of aerosols and these may exert different influences on the climate. These include (Barry and Chorley 2003)

1.

black carbonaceous particles (soot), which absorb solar radiation and have a warming effect

2.

water-soluble inorganic aerosols (such as sulphates) which backscatter solar radiation, resulting in a cooling effect

3. 4.

condensed organic aerosols, which also backscatter radiation mineral dust, which tends to absorb solar radiation and has a warming effect

The relative magnitudes of these various effects are not, however, well understood. Furthermore, apart from their direct radiative effects, aerosols also affect climate indirectly through their role as cloud condensation nuclei. The aerosol particles stimulate the formation of clouds by providing nuclei for the condensation of water vapour into the small drops that make up clouds. These effects are highly complex and even less well understood, as different types of aerosol may promote the formation of different types of cloud under different conditions, and different clouds have different characteristics and effects on reflection of solar and terrestrial radiation (and hence different radiative forcing characteristics).

The radiative effects of aerosols may also vary depending on their distribution across the globe at different times of year. Thus, for example, aerosols tend to cause a net warming over snow, ice, and most terrestrial surfaces (which have a relatively high albedo), but a net cooling over the oceans (which have a relatively low albedo). The overall effect of aerosols on global average surface temperature remains uncertain (Barry and Chorley 2003).

Changes in albedo

Changes in the albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth's surface (or atmosphere) occur for several reasons. One of the most significant changes in albedo occurs as a result of the melting of ice and snow - including polar sea ice, ice sheets, seasonal snowfall, and mountain glaciers. As the ice and snow melt, the highly reflective surfaces become darker, less reflective and more efficient at absorbing solar radiation (especially in the case of the oceans, which have relatively low albedo).

How may some changes in albedo constitute another form of positive feedback in climate change? If global warming reduces ice and snow cover, this will then reduce albedo and hence causes further radiative forcing and hence warming.

Changes in albedo also accompany vegetation change, largely as a result of changes in land use. For instance, the clearance of tropical forests and their replacement with agricultural crops tends to be accompanied by a reduction in tropical cloud cover (due to the reduced cycling of water via the process of evapo-transpiration). Forest clearance results in a direct increase in albedo of around 10% locally, although this value may partially be offset by the reduction in albedo that occurs due to the reduction of evapo-transpiration and cloud cover (Barry and Chorley 2003). Overall, changes in global albedo are problematic to assess and quantify.

Interconnected effects and uncertainty

In what ways do the aspects of climate change discussed in this section make the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change uncertain? A key theme of this section has been that there are multiple interactions between different aspects of anthropogenic activity in the ways that they impact on climate change. These interactions make it extremely complex and difficult to predict the impacts of particular changes. This is compounded by the limited understanding of particular parts of the climate system, a particular one being the behaviour of clouds and their effects on radiative forcing under different circumstances. This is just the scientific uncertainty uncertainty about what anthropogenic emissions will actually be in the future, and how people will react to climate and policy change, is also highly uncertain!

It should be apparent that the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and albedo are not separate but are interconnected in many, complex ways. These interconnections occur not just in the atmosphere, but are also inherent in people's activities. Thus, for example, the clearance of tropical forests results in the accumulation of greenhouse gases (directly, if the timber is burned, and indirectly through the removal of an important sink for carbon dioxide); it may result in the release of aerosols (through the emission of carbonaceous particles if the timber is burned); and it may also result in a reduction in albedo (by inhibiting evapo-transpiration and cloud formation). In addition, further changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and albedo may result from whatever new land use is ascribed to the cleared area. If the land is converted to input-intensive agriculture or to cattle ranching, it may become a substantial source of greenhouse gas emissions. What then is the overall impact of forest clearance on the climate? Overall, although all of the effects described above may be significant, the anthropogenic forcing of climate is dominated by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a net warming of the atmosphere.

There is little uncertainty that clearing forests promotes warming of the atmosphere. However, as noted above, the precise climate response to a given radiative forcing is complicated by the existence of feedback mechanisms in the climate system which may amplify or dampen that response. The existence of feedback mechanisms is a major influence that complicates and hinders the accurate prediction and assessment of climate change, since those mechanisms may be immensely complex and, in some cases, poorly understood by scientists. Nevertheless, the influence of feedback mechanisms cannot be ignored in discussions of climate change since those mechanisms may modify the initial effects of climate perturbations in major - yet unpredictable - ways.

More precise predictions of how much the atmosphere will be warmed are affected not only by all these processes but also by people's responses to some of them. This further complicates the making of precise quantitative predictions of global warming and means that such predictions are inherently uncertain. While continuing scientific advances reduce uncertainty about the behaviour of the climate science, continuing significant uncertainty remains as a result of the complexity and uncertainty involved in human interactions with land, energy, and other forms of resource use, and their effects on the climate system. Review your earlier list of possible tipping points and positive feedback effects. Are there any other positive feedbacks discussed in the rest of the unit that you did not think about? You may want to draw diagrams showing some of these feedback effects and their interactions.

Unit Summary
This unit has explored various aspects of the global climate system: the composition and structure of the atmosphere, the heat budget of the Earth, the greenhouse effect, climate forcings, feedback mechanisms, and anthropogenic climate change processes. Several key points emerge from this overview. First, global climate is not static - it changes constantly on all spatial and temporal scales - so recent debates about 'climate change' should be understood in that context. Second, climate change has both natural and human drivers; those forcings may be external and internal and they involve both positive and negative feedback mechanisms. Third, the number and complexity of interconnections between the many processes and mechanisms that give rise to global climate make the task of understanding and predicting climate change a formidable one, and make precise predictions of climate change and its impact inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, considerable progress has been made recently in understanding climate change. In particular, the main causes of anthropogenic climate change - the accumulation of greenhouse gases, the emission of aerosols and changes in albedo - have

been identified and intensive research is in progress to understand the properties and significance of those effects.

Unit Self Assessment Question 1

Question 1 of 3

Try to answer the question below. To check your answer against a pre-prepared answer, click on 'show answer'

Explain the fate of solar radiation arriving at the top of the Earth's atmosphere.

Most of the solar radiation arriving at the top of the Earth's atmosphere passes through the layers of the atmosphere - the thermosphere, the mesosphere, the stratosphere, and the troposphere - before reaching the Earth's surface.

Some solar radiation - especially radiation in the ultraviolet wavelength portion of the spectrum - is absorbed as a result of interactions with ozone in the stratosphere. Some solar radiation is reflected or backscattered to space by reflective substances in the Earth's atmosphere, including bright clouds and aerosols (such as sulphate particles).

The solar radiation that is not absorbed, reflected or backscattered during its passage through the atmosphere reaches the Earth's surface. Some of the incident solar radiation is reflected from the Earth's surface, especially from surfaces with high albedo (reflectivity), such as sea ice, ice sheets, snow, and mountain glaciers.

The remaining solar radiation that is not reflected by the Earth's surface is absorbed by the surface. The energy absorbed by the Earth's surface is then re-emitted in the form of radiation of longer wavelength (as heat, or infrared radiation). Some of the energy re-radiated from the Earth's surface is then absorbed by greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, where it exerts a warming effect.

The remainder of the energy re-radiated by the Earth's surface is lost to space. In accordance with physical principles, the temperature of the Earth adjusts in order to achieve a balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing terrestrial radiation. This balance is known as the heat budget of the Earth.


14

Acronyms and Abbreviations

the chemical form (isotope) of the element carbon that has an atomic weight of 14 the chemical form (isotope) of the element oxygen that has an atomic weight of 18 common era chlorofluorocarbons methane carbon dioxide carbon dioxide equivalent El Nio-Southern Oscillation gigatonnes global warming potential hydrofluorocarbons hectopascals Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kilometre nitrous oxide ozone perfluorocarbons sulphur hexafluoride United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change watts

18

CE CFCs CH4 CO2 CO2e ENSO Gt GWP HFCs hPa IPCC km N 2O O3 PFCs SF6 UNFCCC W

Key Terms and Concepts

absorption spectrum

the distribution of the wavelengths of energy that are absorbed by the various constituents of the atmosphere; it arises because different substances in the atmosphere absorb energy in different wavelength bands

aerosol particles albedo

tiny solid or liquid particles that are suspended in the air the degree of reflectivity of the Earth's surface; a measure of much solar radiation is reflected to the atmosphere rather than absorbed by the surface resulting from human activities a measure of how much the climate is expected to change in response to a given perturbation (such as an increase in greenhouse gas concentration) the quantity of a greenhouse gas that has the same radiative effect as one tonne of CO2 the equilibrium global average surface warming following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration; in other words, the amount of climate change that we would expect to occur if the global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles the global-scale movement of air masses (together with heat and ocean currents) that occurs in response to the uneven heating of the Earth's surface by solar radiation the warming of the Earth's atmosphere that occurs as a consequence of the existence of greenhouse gases (which absorb long-wave radiation) in the atmosphere the balance between the energy arriving at, and leaving, the Earth, which is achieved by adjustments in the Earth's temperature the change in average net radiation at the top of the troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, or due to some other change in the climate system in this context, the storage of carbon (or carbon dioxide) in solid or liquid form through biological, chemical or physical processes; it is a means of mitigating the effects of climate change by removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere in the context of non-linear systems (such as the global climate system), the points at which a system changes from one state to another; such a change may be irreversible, at least on human timescales

anthropogenic climate sensitivity

CO2-equivalent

equilibrium climate sensitivity

global circulation

greenhouse effect

heat budget

radiative forcing

sequestration

tipping points