Global Vehicle LiB Market Study

Global Study
Detroit/Munich, August 2011

Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx

Management summary

> The global automotive Li-Ion battery market is forecast to grow from USD 1.5 bn to USD 8.9 bn by 2015 > Further growth to USD 53 bn forecast in the 2020 high scenario > Light vehicles will dominate the market development over 80% of total value in 2015 > Truck market will be driven by electrification of class 3 and class 4 pickup and delivery trucks > China will account for over 80% of the bus market value > As the market takes off, five frontrunners will dominate and the industry will consolidate > Consolidation was already forecasted in a 2010 Roland Berger report which concluded that industry overcapacity will exist in 2015
Source: Roland Berger Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 2

The global LiB market is expected to be USD 9 bn in 2015 Light Vehicles dominate and high growth in China occurs after 2015

LiB market size by vehicle class [USD bn]

52.5 15.7 High Low

LiB market size by region [USD bn]

52.5 15.7
3.2

High Low North America Europe

8.9

14.1

Light vehicles1)

8.9
2.4 3.8

6.0

7.6

1.5
0.1

Trucks
1.2 0.2
0.6 0.7 0.7

0.8

Buses

1.5
0.5

0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0

4.6

China Asia excl. China

1.4

0.4

1.2 1.1

0.4

RoW

2011

2015

2020

2011

2015

2020

1) Light vehicles = passenger cars + light commercial vehicles (class 1-3)

Source: Roland Berger LiB market model Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 3

Light vehicles dominate the xEV market because of the large volume base and relatively high penetration rates
Total vehicle build and penetration rate assumptions by vehicle class [m units]
Light vehicles Trucks Buses

PC + LCV (Class 1-3)

120.4 103.4 78.3

Class 4+

3.0

3.8

4.8

0.4

0.5

0.6

2011
PENETRATION EV/PHEV [%] HEV [%]
0.1% 1.7%

2015

2020
Low High
8.2% 9.4%

2011

2015

2020
Low High
1.3% 4.1%

2011

2015

2020
Low High
3.0%

0.8% 2.6%

2.2% 6.5%

0.1% 0.1%

0.5% 2.3%

0.7% 1.2%

0.4% 1.9%

1.4% 6.2%

2.3%

9.5% 14.0%
4

Source: Roland Berger LiB market model

Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx

Five players will dominate the global market by 2015 with combined market share of ~80%
Key industry participants in 2015
Expected 2015 global market share1) [USD based2)] = USD 8.9 bn
26% 18%
3)

Expected 2015 global market share1) [kW, kWh based] PHEV and EV [kWh] Others
18% 33%

6%
3)

12% 13% 17%

15% 14% 6% 2% 2%

HEV [kW]

Others
15%

8%
12% 19%

27%

3)

19%

1) Accuracy level: +/- 2%; 2) Market value derived using USD 730/kWh for hybrids, USD 560/kWh for PHEV, and USD 400/kWh for EV in 2015; 3) Includes Primearth's share
Source: Roland Berger LiB market model Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 5

LIGHT VEHICLES

Same players dominate the light vehicle market

Key industry participants in 2015
Expected 2015 global market share1) [USD based2)] = USD 7.6 bn Expected 2015 global market share1) [kW, kWh based] PHEV and EV 30% [kWh]
21%
3)

Others
15%

7%
10%
3)

37%

12%

15% 11% 6% 3%

19%

HEV [kW]

Others
4% 12% 20% 22% 12%
3)

30%

2%

1) Accuracy level: +/- 2%; 2) Market value derived using USD 730/kWh for hybrids, USD 560/kWh for PHEV, and USD 400/kWh for EV in 2015; 3) Includes Primearth's share
Source: Roland Berger LiB market model Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 6

BACKUP

The market shares in light vehicles are heavily dependent on key OEMs meeting their xEV production targets

2015 expected OEM production and share PHEV/EV1) 2015 expected OEM production and share HEV1)
[290] 38% [150] 19% [55] 7% [50] 6% [50] 6% [25] 3% Others [75] 6% [265] 22%

[230] 19% [180] 15% [140] 11%

[65] 5%
[55] 5% [45] 4%

[155] 20%

Others

[160] 13%

[ xx ] 2015 forecasted production volume ['000s]

1) Share and forecasts are for vehicles with Li Ion batteries

Source: Roland Berger LiB market model Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 7

TRUCKS AND BUSES

In trucks and buses, A123 is expected to rank #1 with an expected 2015 market share of 33%
Key industry participants in 2015
Expected 2015 global market share1) [USD based2)]
= USD 1.3 bn
33%
3)

Expected 2015 global market share1) [kW, kWh based]

PHEV and EV [kWh] Others
21%
32%

10% 10% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3%

5% 9% 10%
12%
11%
3)

Others HEV [kW]

4%
3)

18% 33% 10% 10% 11% 14%

1) Accuracy level: +/- 2%; 2) Market value derived using USD 730/kWh for hybrids, USD 560/kWh for PHEV, and USD 400/kWh for EV in 2015; 3) Includes Primearth's share
Source: Roland Berger LiB market model Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx 8

Li-Ion Batteries Study_final.pptx