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RPDataRismarkJulyHedonicHomeValueIndexresults
Released:Wednesday31August2011(Embargo:10.30amEST)
Furtherinformationcontact:Rpdata.com MitchKoper 0417771778orforRismark ChristopherJoye 0414980264
Median dwelling price $500,000 $475,000 $420,000 $380,000 $455,000 $425,000 $490,000 $320,000 $455,000 $327,000
Highest rental yields: Darwin with gross rental yield of 5.2% for houses
and 5.8% for units
Lowest rental yields: Melbourne with gross rental yields of 3.7% for
houses and 4.3% for units
Annualchangeindwellingvalues,yearendingJuly2011
RPDataRismarkHomeValueIndex,SeasonallyAdjustedResults,Alldwellings
2.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 5.5% 7.0% Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart+ Melbourne Darwin Sydney Canberra Australian Capitals Restof state* 6.6% 6.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 2.9% 0.5% 1.9%
2.4%
Source:RPDataRismark+HobartdatatoJune2011*Restofstatedatabasedonresultsforhousesonly
Rollingquarterlychangeincombinedcapitalcityhomevalues
RPDataRismarkHomeValueIndex,SeasonallyAdjustedResults,Alldwellings
7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% Jul01 Jul02 Jul03 Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11
Source:RPDataRismark
www.rpdata.com/indices
NationalNewsRelease
JULYNATIONALINDEXRESULTS JULY NATIONAL INDEX RESULTS (Contd)
If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australias housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers time. accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase, Mr Joye said. Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data. According to the August Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey, Australians still expect two interest rate hikes over the next 12 months. Combined with volatile equity prices, global financial market instability, and soft house prices, Australians are understandably reluctant to make high commitment decisions at the moment, Mr Lawless said said. Mr Lawless also highlighted the premium housing market where comparatively larger declines in value will likely present patient investors with attractive opportunities during the next six months. Dwelling values across the most expensive capital city suburbs are down -6.2 per cent over the first seven months of year. This compares with a much smaller -2.3 per cent fall across middle priced suburbs and a -2.1 per cent decline in the cheapest suburbs. Clearly, the ongoing financial market volatility is having a more marked impact on wealthier households, as are weak business conditions outside of the resources sector, Mr Lawless said. Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft. The build up in the number of homes being advertised for sale together with the slow-down in buyer demand has once again seen average selling times expand. Across the capital cities the average house is taking 55 days to sell compared with 45 days at the same time last year. We have also seen the level of vendor discounting expand to -7.2 per cent from -5.7 per cent in July 2010, which is in line with the lowest reading recorded during 2008. Finally, the weighted average auction clearance rate across Australias capital cities has remained slightly below 50 per cent over the past seven weeks. If these soft trends persist, the Spring Selling Season is likely to open up some attractive investment opportunities for prospective buyers. In contrast, the selling environment is likely to be challenging for vendors, particularly if they have unrealistic price expectations, Mr Lawless said. Ends. Media enquiries contact: RP Data: Mitch Koper, corporate communications manager on 0417 771 778 or mitch.koper@rpdata.com p p g p @p Rismark: Chris Joye, joint managing director on 0414 980 264 cj@rismark.com.au
www.rpdata.com/indices
RPDataRismarkResults(*SeasonallyAdjusted*)
Table 1 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month M th Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 2 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 3 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 4 Rental yields, July 2011 (indicative) Houses Units Sydney 4.4% 5.2% Melbourne 3.7% 4.3% Brisbane 4.7% 5.4% Sydney Melbourne 0.4% -1.1% -0.3% -1.5% 1.4% -4.3% 2.6% -2.0% $458,500 $425,000 Brisbane Adelaide 0.4% -1.3% -0.1% -1.7% -3.4% -5.8% -4.3% -6.8% $370,000 $333,700 Sydney Melbourne 0.0% -1.6% -0 5% 0.5% -3 1% 3.1% -1.5% -6.2% -0.5% -5.0% $561,625 $501,500 Brisbane Adelaide -0.6% -1.0% -2 2% 2.2% -0 6% 0.6% -5.6% -3.2% -7.0% -3.9% $440,000 $395,000 Sydney Melbourne 0.1% -1.4% -0.2% -2.7% -1.0% -5.3% 0.5% -4.3% $500,000 $475,000 Brisbane Adelaide -0.4% -1.1% -1.9% -0.6% -5.3% -3.6% -6.6% -4.5% $420,000 $380,000 All Dwellings Perth Darwin Canberra -1.1% 0.6% 1.9% -2.5% -1.4% 1.2% -4.0% -0.4% 1.8% -6.3% -3.3% 1.9% $455,000 $425,000 $490,000 Hobart+ na na na na $320,000 Australian Capitals -0.6% -1.5% -3.4% -2.9% $455,000
Perth Darwin Canberra -1.3% -0.4% 4.0% -3 3% 3.3% -0 9% 0.9% 2.2% 2 2% -4.9% -0.1% 3.7% -7.1% -3.0% 3.8% $470,000 $429,500 $549,000
Hobart+ na na na na $340,000
Perth Darwin Canberra -0.2% 0.2% -3.5% -0.2% -3.4% -2.3% -1.0% -1.6% -5.3% -2.9% -4.1% -5.8% $400,000 $422,250 $420,000
Hobart+ na na na na $268,000
Rental Yield Results Adelaide 4.2% 4.8% Perth 4.3% 4.8% Darwin 5.2% 5.8% Canberra 4.8% 5.4% Hobart+ 5.0% 5.3% Australian Capitals 4.3% 4.9%
** Seasonally-adjusted values were computed using the X12-ARIMA procedure developed by the US Bureau of the Census. The model was fitted to the logged values of the index, using an additive seasonal model with the automatically selected seasonal ARIMA model. Goodness of fit statistics and other diagnostics were all satisfactory. *The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index value. p yp q p p The change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region. The RP DataRismark Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The RP Data-Rismark index values are not, therefore, the same as the median price sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details. + The inherently low sales volume recorded in Hobart, which is due to the small population base, gives rise to naturally higher levels of volatility. As a consequence preliminary results for Hobart are not made available. That is, the Hobart data lags by one month the other national results. Methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that attempts to overcome the issue of compositional bias associated with median price measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By deconstructing a property i t it constituent parts a much more reliable and accurate representation of capital movements i property values can b d t ti t into its tit t t h li bl d t t ti f it l t in t l be calculated. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. The hedonic methodology has been created by Rismark International and independently audited by both the Securities Industry Research Centre of Asia-Pacific ("SIRCA") and Moody's Economy.com. Both of these independent parties have declared the methodology to be an improvement over the quality of existing measures of house price movements in Australia. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com Mediaenquiries:RPData:MitchKoper 0417771778RismarkInternational:ChrisJoye 0414980264
www.rpdata.com/indices
RPDataRismarkResults(*NotSeasonallyAdjusted*)
Table 1 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month M th Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 2 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 3 Capital growth to July 2011 (indicative) Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Median price* based on settled sales over quarter Capital growth to June 2011 Month Quarter Year to date Year on year Table 4 Rental yields, July 2011 (indicative) Houses Units Sydney 4.4% 5.2% Melbourne 3.7% 4.3% Brisbane 4.7% 5.4% Sydney Melbourne 0.0% -1.0% -0.9% -2.2% 1.2% -3.6% 2.5% -2.0% $458,500 $425,000 Brisbane Adelaide -0.4% -1.1% -0.5% -1.9% -2.8% -4.8% -4.3% -7.0% $370,000 $333,700 Sydney Melbourne -0.5% -1.9% -1 6% 1.6% -4 0% 4.0% -0.8% -5.2% -0.6% -5.0% $561,625 $501,500 Brisbane Adelaide -0.5% -1.5% -3 1% 3.1% -1 7% 1.7% -5.0% -4.0% -7.0% -3.9% $440,000 $395,000 Sydney Melbourne -0.3% -1.7% -1.4% -3.6% -0.2% -4.9% 0.4% -4.3% $500,000 $475,000 Brisbane Adelaide -0.5% -1.4% -2.7% -1.7% -4.7% -4.1% -6.6% -4.5% $420,000 $380,000 All Dwellings Perth Darwin Canberra -1.6% 0.8% 1.8% -3.4% -2.8% 0.3% -3.6% -0.7% 1.9% -6.4% -3.2% 1.9% $455,000 $425,000 $490,000 Hobart+ na na na na $320,000 Australian Capitals -0.9% -2.4% -2.7% -3.0% $455,000
Perth Darwin Canberra -1.8% 0.5% 3.1% -4 0% 4.0% -2 2% 2.2% 1.5% 1 5% -4.4% -0.3% 4.1% -7.2% -2.9% 3.8% $470,000 $429,500 $549,000
Hobart+ na na na na $340,000
Perth Darwin Canberra -0.9% 1.4% -3.7% -0.9% -4.4% -4.5% -0.2% -1.9% -6.9% -2.9% -3.9% -5.9% $400,000 $422,250 $420,000
Hobart+ na na na na $268,000
Rental Yield Results Adelaide 4.2% 4.8% Perth 4.3% 4.8% Darwin 5.2% 5.8% Canberra 4.8% 5.4% Hobart+ 5.0% 5.3% Australian Capitals 4.3% 4.9%
** Seasonally-adjusted values were computed using the X12-ARIMA procedure developed by the US Bureau of the Census. The model was fitted to the logged values of the index, using an additive seasonal model with the automatically selected seasonal ARIMA model. Goodness of fit statistics and other diagnostics were all satisfactory. *The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index value. p yp q p p The change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region. The RP DataRismark Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The RP Data-Rismark index values are not, therefore, the same as the median price sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details. + The inherently low sales volume recorded in Hobart, which is due to the small population base, gives rise to naturally higher levels of volatility. As a consequence preliminary results for Hobart are not made available. That is, the Hobart data lags by one month the other national results. Methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that attempts to overcome the issue of compositional bias associated with median price measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By deconstructing a property i t it constituent parts a much more reliable and accurate representation of capital movements i property values can b d t ti t into its tit t t h li bl d t t ti f it l t in t l be calculated. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. The hedonic methodology has been created by Rismark International and independently audited by both the Securities Industry Research Centre of Asia-Pacific ("SIRCA") and Moody's Economy.com. Both of these independent parties have declared the methodology to be an improvement over the quality of existing measures of house price movements in Australia. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com Mediaenquiries:RPData:MitchKoper 0417771778RismarkInternational:ChrisJoye 0414980264
www.rpdata.com/indices
Background
The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Indices benefit from exclusive access to the most comprehensive property database in Australia and NZ, which is owned by RP Data Limited (ASX: RPX). RP Data spends over $9 million annually collecting new property information and has amassed a database comprising over 140 million property data records covering 99% of dwellings. The RP DataRismark Index results are reported by the RBA in its Statement on Monetary Policy. The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Indices have received considerable industry praise. In May 2009, CommSecs chief economist, Craig James, commented, The RP Data-Rismark index has emerged as Australias authoritative source on home price trends. The property database is Australias largest and, unlike the Bureau of Statistics, all properties are counted, not just free-standing homes. Macquarie Banks interest rate strategist, Rory Robertson, has also commented, RP DataRismarks monthly estimates are more timely and reliable than the ABSs quarterly readings. The RP Data-Rismark Indices have been independently audited b th S i d d tl dit d by the Securities I d t R iti Industry Research C t of A i P ifi ("SIRCA") which i a not-for-profit financial services h Centre f Asia-Pacific ("SIRCA"), hi h is tf fit fi i l i research organisation involving twenty-six collaborating universities across Australia and New Zealand. In its review of the RP DataRismark indices, SIRCA concluded:"...the results of our analysis indicate that the stratified median price, hedonic and repeat-sales property price indices developed by RP Data-Rismark represent a material improvement over the simple median price series that have historically predominated in the Australian market. In this regard, it is pleasing to see private sector organisations that are committed to undertaking sophisticated residential real estate research and advancing our otherwise crude understanding of this complex market. In addition to the SIRCA audit, Moodys Economy.com, which is a leading global economics research organisation, has also undertaken an extensive review of the methodology, data and procedures used by RP Data-Rismark to construct house price indices. The Moodys reports summary findings, which were authored by two economics PhDs, are as follows: The suite of indexes calculated by RP DataRismark represents a significant i Ri k t i ifi t improvement i th quality of h t in the lit f housing price statistics available i A t li i i t ti ti il bl in AustraliaWe l k f W look forward t seeing d to i these indexes as they are released and believe that they will quickly take a central place in the macroeconomic data framework of AustraliaThese data are more sophisticated, detailed and have better coverage than that used in the construction of existing housing price indexes in Australia. The high quality of the data makes it possible to implement not only median price and repeat sales indexes but also hedonic indexes, which up to this point had proved difficult to construct in Australia due to data constraints. Other comments from the Moodys report include: Perhaps the most exciting methodological development is the introduction of hedonic price indexes to the Australian market. This approach to price index construction controls for compositional change by obtaining information on housing characteristics (e.g. bedrooms, bathrooms, land size, suburb, etc.)...
FormoreinformationontheRPDataRismarkIndices,pleasegotohttp://www.rpdata.com Mediaenquiriescontact: MitchKoper CorporateCommunicationsManager rpdata.com 0417771778 0417 771 778 mitch.koper@rpdata.com ChrisJoye Economist RismarkInternational Mobile:0414980264 cj@rismark.com.au cj@rismark com au
RPData Establishedin1991,RPDataistheleadingsupplierofcommercialandresidentialpropertyinformationservicesthroughoutAustralia andNewZealand.SubscriptionclientstoRPDataspropertyinformationserviceincludeover10,000realestateagents,valuers, propertydevelopers,financialinstitutionsandgovernmentdepartments.RPDataisalsothelargestsupplierofelectronicvaluations andconsumerpropertyreportsinAustraliageneratingover30millionelectronicvaluationseverymonth. OurrecentacquisitionsoftheValexGroup(madeupofValuationExchangeandMegaw&HoggNationalValuers)andSandstones O r recent acq isitions of the Vale Gro p (made p of Val ation E change and Mega & Hogg National Val ers) and Sandstones VMSdivisionhasallowedustoexpandthisrolefurther.Bycombiningourleadingdatabasesandanalyticswithexistingproperty valuationmanagementprocesses,platformsandaleadingvaluationfirm,wereabletodevelopmoreefficientvaluationsolutions whilereducingtherisksassociatedwithmortgagelending. RismarkInternational RismarkInternational("Rismark")isaglobalfundsmanagementbusinessthathasexpertiseintheexecutionofsophisticatedreal estateresearchandinvestmentstrategies.RismarkalsohasalonghistoryofadvisingAustralianandoverseasgovernmentson the developmentofinnovativeeconomicpoliciesastheyrelatetohousingandfinancialmarkets.Asabyproductofitsquantitative development of innovative economic policies as they relate to housing and financial markets As a by product of its quantitative researchactivities,RismarkhasdevelopedthetechnologyandintellectualpropertyunderlyingthemarketleadingRPDataRismark hedonicpropertypriceindicesandrelatedautomatedpropertyvaluationmodels(AVMs),amongstotherthings.InSeptember2008 theAustralianStockExchange("ASX")selectedtheRPDataRismarkhedonicindicesasthebenchmarkindicesfortheASX'snew residentialpropertyderivativesmarket.RismarksmanagementteamisaugmentedbyaGlobalResearchAdvisoryBoardcomprising ofeminentacademicsfromSydneyUniversity,MelbourneUniversity,andYale.Formoreinformationvisitwww.rismark.com.au.
Mediaenquiries:RPData:MitchKoper 0417771778RismarkInternational:ChrisJoye 0414980264
www.rpdata.com/indices