1.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Cypress Creek Watershed has many environmental risks that are a threat to health and ecological well being. The purpose of this report is to conduct a risk analysis to help better identify such threats. This risk assessment will be broken up into three sections, Hazard Identification, Exposure Analysis, and Risk Characterization. The goal of Hazard Identification is to identify specific stressors within the Cypress Creek Watershed and discuss the risks that are associated with them. Next, Exposure Analysis aims to characterize the source of the environmental stressor, identify the pathways of the stressor, and measure concentration levels of the stressor in regards to the source. Finally, Risk Characterization discusses possible levels of acceptable risk as well as areas of particularly high vulnerability to these risks. The three stressors we have decided to investigate are Nitrogen Levels, Suspended Sediment Levels, and E.coli Levels. Nitrogen levels pose a health risk to humans and to ecological well being. Next, suspended sediment contamination has been found to hinder aquatic life survival and carry pathogenic diseases. E.coli contamination has been found to present to biggest risk to human health. Overall, it is our hope that by analyzing and characterizing these stressors we can have a better understanding of their associated risks.

2. CYPRESS CREEK WATERSHED BACKGROUND Watersheds are areas of land that accumulate water, nutrients, chemicals and sediments to a common downstream body of water such as a river, river system, or lake. After a heavy rain, water flows down hill across the surface or underground to accumulate into a larger body of water. The further the water moves down hill the volume of water accumulated becomes progressively larger (Meals). The Cypress Creek Watershed is located in Hays County and flows through the cities of Woodcreek and Wimberley Texas. The watershed has an area of approximately 38 mi2 that flows in a southeast direction and is a tributary of the Blanco River. The majority of the Cypress Creek Watershed lands are ranching lands except for residential development in the Woodcreek community and commercial/residential development in the city of Wimberley (RSI, 2010). Cypress Creek can be divided into two segments, the dry segment, and the flowing segment. Unless there is a major rainfall, the 9.5-mile segment above Jacob s Well is usually considered the dry segment. The flowing segment, which is referred to as Cypress Creek , is the 5.5-mile segment below Jacob s Well. The climate of the Cypress Creek Watershed area is semi arid,Using data from 19712000, average annual temperature in Hays County was 76 to 78 F with average annual rainfall was around 35 inches (TWDB, 2007). The Cypress Creek Watershed is located between the two major cities of San Antonio and Austin. The area that the Cypress Creek Watershed encompasses is experiencing rapid urbanization. Hays County is listed as the 31st fastest growing county in the United States. The Texas State Data Center (2010) says Wimberley and Woodcreek's combined population grew approximately 21% from 2000-2009. By the year 2040, population in Hays County is expected to grow from 97,589 in 2000 to over 130,000, or possibly as high as 574,000 .

3. HAZARD IDENTIFICATION The goal of hazard identification is to determine whether exposure to a stressor causes an increase in the incidence of any adverse effects. This is done by gathering evidence that characterizes the link between the negative effects and the specific stressor (Callan).The stressors to the Cypress Creek Watershed we will be focusing on are organic nitrogen,suspended sediment, and E.coli, Table 1 in the Reference Section briefly summarizes each stressor and it s corresponding adverse effects. 3.1.ORGANIC NITROGEN Nitrogen, typically in the form of nitrate, is a nutrient that is required for plant growth.Nitrogen occurs naturally in the environment and accounts for approximately 7.8% of any given plant. There are two adverse effects associated with high levels of nitrogen. First, excess nitrogen can cause overstimulation of growth of aquatic plants and algae. Excessive growth of these organisms, in turn, can clog water intakes, use up dissolved oxygen as they decompose, and block light to deeper waters (USEPA). This seriously affects the respiration of fish and aquatic invertebrates, leads to a decrease in animal and plant diversity, and affects our use of the water for fishing, swimming, and boating. Second, it has been proven that high concentrations of nitrates severely increase the risk of blood oxygen deprivation in newborn infants and cattle.As nitrates enter the body they are converted into nitrites in the digestive system. The nitrite oxidizes with hemoglobin in red blood cells to form methemoglobin. Methemoglobin cannot carry oxygen like its counterpart hemoglobin can. Typically, while nitrite is forming methemoglobin, the body at the same time produces an equivalent amount of hemoglobin to sustain proper oxygen levels in the blood. Newborns lack this ability to produce

hemoglobin at rapid rates, which in turn leads to a shortage of oxygen in the blood, a condition referred to as methemoglobinemia or blue baby syndrome. (BHA) 3.2. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT Suspended sediment consists of inorganic material such as clay and silt, and organic material like algae and bacteria that drain into a body of water after rainfall. Suspended sediments are often used to describe turbidity levels, which are measures of water clarity. There are both health effects, and environmental effects associated with suspended sediment levels. The adverse health effect associated with suspended sediment is the transportation of microorganisms. Organic sediment particles may carry harmful bacteria and pathogens that pose the risk of infecting anyone who comes into contact with the waters down stream. As the size of the inorganic sediment decreases, the risk of that sediment carrying a harmful microorganism increases (EPA). Next, the adverse environmental effects of suspended sediment are as followed. First,suspended sediment has the possibility of clogging fish gills, which has the possibility of either killing the fish or greatly reducing their growth rates (SSWQ). Next,a large volume of suspended sediment will reduce light penetration, thereby suppressing photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton, algae, and macrophytes. This leads to fewer photosynthetic organisms available to serve as food sources for many invertebrates. As a result, overall invertebrate numbers may also decline, which may then lead to decreased fish populations. 3.3. E.COLI E.coli is bacteria commonly found in the gastrointestinal tract and feces of warmblooded animals.Disease-causing bacteria, viruses and protozoans may be present in water that has elevated levels of E. coli, so this is used as a screening test to identify times when it is unsafe for contact recreation (EPA). 4

E.coli has many very serious adverse health effects. It has been found to cause illnesses such as meningitis, septicemia, urinary tract, and intestinal infections. A recently discovered strain of E. coli (E. coli 0157:H7) can cause severe disease and may be fatal in small children and the elderly. 4. EXPOSURE ANALYSIS Exposure analysis aims to characterize the source of the environmental stressor, identify the pathways of the stressor, and measure concentration levels of the stressor in regards to the source. To aid our analysis of various stressor sources, it is important to take into account land use data for the Cypress Creek Watershed.Table 2 in the Reference Section shows land use data for the Cypress Creek Watershed area attained from the Hays County Appraisal District. 4.1. ORGANIC NITROGEN The nonpoint sources of organic nitrogen we have identified consist of residential usage of nitrogen based fertilizers and pesticides, pet and livestock excrement, and faulty septic systems (USEPA).Once the nitrogen has initially been introduced into the environment by the source, it is washed down hill and into Cypress Creek during the next rainfall.According to data gathered from 2000-2009, areas of residential land use tend to have higher concentrations of nitrogen loading.By comparing Figure 1 and Figure 2 in the Reference Section, it can be observed that the areas of high residential land use also have the highest concentration of nitrogen load potential. This correlation stems from nitrogen based fertilizer use and possible septic system malfunctions that occur more frequently in residential use areas (RSI). It is important to note that even though residential land use has the highest concentration of potential nitrogen loading,areas of rangelands still have considerably higher overall nitrogen loading potential.This can be observed in Figure 3 of the Reference

Section. The large total annual nitrogen load for rangelands can best be explained by two factors. First, animal excrements are a major source of nitrogen loads, so the large populations of animals like deer, goats and cows that roam the lands of the Cypress Creek Watershed make up a considerable proportion of nitrogen loading sources. Sheer size is the second factor to explain why rangeland nitrogen loading is so high. As seen in Table 2, rangeland covers 25,523 acres at around 75% of total land while residential land covers 3,150 acres at only around 12% of total land use (RSI). 4.2. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT The suspended sediment nonpoint sources we have identified are grazing activities and land clearing for new construction. Grazing activities increase potential suspended sediment loading through animal wastes and increased erosion from soil compaction and vegetation removal. Erosion and vegetation removal increase the amount of loose soil on the ground that will flow downhill and deposit in the creek during the next rainfall.Construction activities such as land clearing are also sources of suspended sediment. As native vegetation is cleared, loose sediment is exposed and eventually makes its way to the creek during the next rainfall as well.Another factor contributing to suspended sediment loads is the amount of impervious cover. Impervious cover makes rainwater flow very quickly down hill without giving any sediment it may have picked up along the way a chance to settle in vegetation.As seen in Figure 4, the two largest land use sources to suspended sediment loading are undeveloped and residential lands. These make sense because of the large amount of impervious cover in residential areas. Also, sediment load levels in undeveloped land areas would seem to verify our data as well. Undeveloped land is land that is still in construction. Construction sites are a major source for suspended sediment loads because of the amount of loose sediment exposed on cleared land.Suspended sediment land use totals from Figure 5 can be verified with Figure 4 and Figure 1 as well. We see that the land use areas with highest suspended solid loads are

residential areas which are characterized by their large amount of impervious cover; and undeveloped areas, characterized by large amounts of loose exposed sediment. 4.3. E.COLI We have identified two key sources of potential E.coli loading.First, human, pet, wild life, and live stock excrement. Second,onsite sewage facility (OSSF) malfunctions. According to Figure 6, pets and deer are the two main sources of potential E.coli loading. It can be seen in Figure 7 that potential E.coli loading levels concentrate in residential areas where people are more likely to own pets. The pathway animal excrement would take to the creek is basically the same as nitrogen and suspended sediments, that is, after excrement rain washes it down hill until it eventually enters the creek. It is important to note that, impervious cover in the residential areas also contribute to the high potential E.coli loading levels for the same reasons mentioned in Section 4.3. Next,OSSF malfunctions are another potential source of E.coli loading. This source s pathway is somewhat different. After a theoretical OSSF malfunction, human excrement is reintroduced to the environment (either underground or on the surface) before it has been properly chemically neutralized. After this, it eventually flows back into the creek. It can be observed between Figure 8 and figure 9 the sharp correlation between OSSF locations and potential E.coli loading risks. 5. RISK CHARACTERIZATION According to Callan, risk characterization is a complete description of the form and dimension of the expected risk based upon the assessment of its two components: the identified hazard, and the exposure to that hazard. Risk characterization usually expresses a quantitative level of acceptable risk, as well as a qualitative description of the hazard focusing on areas of particularly high risk.

Load duration curves are often used to assess the effects of pollution loading. Load duration curves relate flow (volume per time) to loading (mass pollutant per time) using data gathered about stream flow and pollution concentration.Mean flow values are first ranked from fastest to slowest and assigned a value based on the percentage of days that flow level is exceeded, then multiplied by the target level for that given flow value to get the load duration curve.Once a load duration curve is constructed, it is used to demonstrate the frequency and magnitude of water quality target exceedances over multiple flow levels.The data used to construct the load duration curves are daily mean values for flow and load gathered from each testing site on the Cypress Creek Watershed from 2000 to 2009 (RSI). 5.1. ORGANIC NITROGEN RISK CHARACTERIZATION Historical median nitrogen level have been 0.11 mg/L at down stream sites and 0.47 mg/L Jacob s Well. As a result, the Cypress Creek Watershed Project has set two levels of acceptable risk for organic nitrogen loads.They have agreed upon a conservative level of 0.1mg/L with an alternate target of 0.5 mg/L, which is still a biologically sustainable level of acceptable risk. It can be observed in Figure 10 that the conservative acceptable risk target of 0.1mg/L was always exceeded in times of 0-20% flows. This suggests that organic nitrogen concentration is directly correlated to surface water runoff.The alternate acceptable risk target of 0.5 mg/L generally tends to be exceeded in times of high flow, and conversely, the average concentration is well below the conservative goal. 5.2. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT RISK CHARACTERIZATION Suspended sediment levels are highly site specific and generally tend to show variances from 0.5 mg/L to 5 mg/L. Because of this high variance it becomes difficult to set an effective level of acceptable risk for suspended sediments. The Cypress Creek Watershed Project has set a level of risk at 5mg/L. If total suspended sediment

concentration levels go above this target they investigate to determine the nonpoint sources for the increased levels. There are three distinct groups that exceed the 5 mg/L acceptable risk level. Excedances during times of high flow are generally the result of very hard and intense rain showers during early spring that was sediments into the creek increasing suspended sediment levels above the target concentration. Excedances during times of medium flow are also the result of spring showers washing accumulated deposits of sediments down the watershed. Last, excedances during times of low flow occur during the hot months of summer and are most likely caused by increased water recreation. 5.3. E.COLI RISK CHARACTERIZATION The level of acceptable risk for E.coli has been set at 394 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 ml. Medium to high levels of E.coli have been recorded during times of medium to high flow. During high flow conditions generally in later summer and early fall, E.coli growth is much higher because of the preferred warm temperatures. During this time showers wash these increased concentrations into the creek. During times of medium flow in the spring and fall, every site occasionally has excedances most likely attributed to the increased sediment and nitrogen levels during this time as well.Excedance in low flow conditions only occur at the ranch road 12 downtown site usually during the dry summer months. During the summer there is a lack of rainfall and no way for E.coli to be transferred directly to the stream, so it is believed the major source of the unacceptable levels of E.coli are residential septic tanks malfunctioning and leaking into the water.