Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Lily wang (CCAON-China) +8610 64335599-637 lilywang@ccaon.com Olivia Wang (CCAON- China) +8610 6433 5599 -Beijing olivia@ccaon.com
Published by:
NOTE: Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however no responsibility or liability will be accepted by CCAON and commercial decision claimed to have been based on the content of the newsletter. Reproduction of any part of this work by any process whatever without written permission of CCAON is strictly forbidden.
Page 1
CAUSTIC SODA
Raw Material: Industry salt market
There was a hike in price across the domestic salt market in July due to the decreased output of solar salt which was caused by the rainy weather, the increased price and tight supply of coal, and the increased transportation charge. However, downstream demand was still strong, so price was at a high level last month.
Prevailing prices Region Shandong Tianjin Solar salt Jiangsu Hebei Liaoning Lake salt Inner Mongolia Qinghai Sichuan Well salt Hunan & Hubei Yunnan Jiangsu RMB/mt ex-work ex-work FD ex-work ex-work ex-work spot FD ex-work ex-work spot USD/mt 220-420 220-270 460-550 250-350 240-380 220-240 170-190 370 350-360 370 360-400 Price climbed strongly due to the tight supply and the price hike of coal. Ex-work price was almost stable due to the transport difficulty and the increased freight charge Price hiked last month due to the declined output, which was influenced by the rainy weather
Market movement
Domestic market
DOMESTIC PRICES OF LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA Prevailing prices (RMB/ mt) Region D-30% Four weeks ago M-32% Four weeks ago Price declined especially in Jiangsu, which was caused by the resistance from traders and the weak downstream demand. Price was consolidating at the high level then declined to the original price in the beginning of month, and conclusions were insipid due to the low operating rate of downstream producers. Producers declined their operating rate due to the Olympic influence. However, price did not rise evidently due to the weak Market movement
E.China
680-880
730-880
750-900
750-900
S.China
800-840
760-880
850-910
790-910
N.China
630-640
580-610
700-720
660-710
Page 2
downstream demand. There was some price increase here. However, buying interest from downstream producers became weak in the end of month, and it was difficult to conclude at the high level. Producers declined their operating rate due to the balance of caustic soda and chlorine, and price of caustic soda rose in July due to the smooth conclusion for flake caustic soda market. Price continued to climb due to the decreased output and strong demand from downstream producers. Price was almost stable although there was some price decline due to the influence from Eastern market.
NW.China
490-540
450-500
540-640
515-550
NE.China
730-800
700-750
780-860
750-830
SW.China
620-680
580-630
670-780
630-680
C.China
590-630
540-600
680-760
680-710
1000 900 Price(RMB/mt) 800 700 600 500 1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan
Date 3-Jun 17-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 11-Mar 25-Mar 12-Feb 26-Feb 22-Apr 20-May 6-May 29-Jul 8-Apr
East China
South China
Page 3
Price(RMB/mt)
East China
South China
Price climbed then declined in the end of month due to the weak demand from downstream producers.
NW.China
The month
2450-3000
2600-3300
SW.China
The month
2650-3400
3200-3600
Export market
Export of caustic soda tended to be insipid as the coming of Olympic Games. Liquid caustic producers had arranged the export time in the last ten-day of August in order to ensure the smooth transportation. Also, there were some producers arranged the maintenance from the beginning of August, which would avoid the influence from Olympic Games on production and offtakes. Most solid caustic soda producers maintained low operating rates in order to keep the balance of caustic soda and chlorine. In addition, caustic soda production and transportation was influenced by the Olympic Games, so both the output and export volume had declined in July, and producers sold most of the cargoes in domestic market with export volume limited. Export nomination of 99% flake caustic soda was USD 570/mt FOB and USD 560/mt FOB in
Page 4
Tianjin port and Shanghai port respectively, and export volume had decreased in July. Producers in Southwest China maintained a low operating rate and caustic soda output was limited, so export was also limited although the demand interest was strong from Southwest Asian buyers. Nomination of 99% flake caustic soda was USD 430/mt FOB in Allah Frontier and conclusion volume was limited. EXPORT CAUSTIC SODA Main Harbor Class 98% Tianjin 99% 96% 48%-50% 98% Shanghai 99% 96% 48%-50% Northwest Frontier Trade Southwest South East Small ports South Northeast North 99% 96% 98% 99% 72% 48%-50% 48%-50% 48%-50% 98.5% FOB FOB FOB FOB FOB FOB FOB FOB DAF DAF DAF DAF DAF FOB FOB FOB FOB Low range 540 540 490 490 580 500 420 430 430 600 RMB 1400 450 Top range 570 570 560 560 600 520 490 500 500 600 RMB 1400 520 Sources from Sinkiang Henan, Tianjin, Ningxia Inner Mongolia, Tianjin Tianjin Anhui Anhui, Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Sinkiang Guizhou, Sichuan Guizhou, Sichuan Guizhou, Sichuan Jiangsu Guangdong Liaoning Shandong
CHINA LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA EXPORTS IN JUNE 2008 To Australia Philippine Source from Shanghai Jiangsu Shanghai Tianjin S. Korea Shanghai Shandong Canada Ghana United States Shandong Jiangsu Tianjin Liaoning Jiangsu Customs Shanghai Nanjing Shanghai Tianjin Shanghai Qingdao Qingdao Nanjing Tianjin Shenyang Nanjing
Page 5
Volume Tons 15,398 2,212 5,111 1,396 2,509 6,102 9,136 9,338 130 1,600 18,020
Average prices USD/MT 297 384 368 392 425 192 265 387 402 220 348
Shandong South Africa Malaysia Taiwan Tanzania Guatemala Hongkong Singapore India Total Tianjin Tianjin Shanghai Tianjin Jiangsu Guangdong Jiangsu Tianjin Jiangsu
Qingdao Tianjin Tianjin Shanghai Tianjin Nanjing Jiulong Guangzhou Shanghai Tianjin Nanjing
Note: * Marked information seems to be deviant All data sourced from CIQ
Page 6
The volume and average prices of China's Export Liquid Caustic soda 2008
Volume USD/MT
Volume
Average prices
Note: Average prices of Export Liquid caustic soda are calculated from General Trade.
CHINA SOLID CAUSTIC SODA EXPORTS June 08 Region America Country Argentina Brazil Panama Puerto Rico The Commonwealth of Dominica Dominica Ecuador Canada United States Mexico Colombia Costarica Cuba Honduras Peru Nicaragua Volume Tons 865.3 25 75 45.8 200 209.9 270.6 23 922 200 200 50 Average prices USD/MT 396 407 423 303 392 480 455 380 412 295 418 400 Jan-Dec 2007 Volume Tons 72 9,332 115 22 95 25 894 2,032 12,496 146 2,546 50 1,794 84 6,549 177 Average prices USD/MT 340 336 367 382 372 390 333 380 373 348 338 360 436 260 338 348
Page 7
El Salvador Guatemala Trinidad and Tobago Venezuela Jamaica Chile Total Africa Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Angola Benin Burkina Faso Togo Congo Eritrea Gambia Djibouti Guinea Ghana Zimbabwe Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Kenya Gabon Libyan Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritius Mauritania Democratic Republic of Congo Morocco Mozambique South Africa Niger Nigeria Namibia Senegal
94 439.7 3,620 45.6 254 100 63 156 19.5 125 375 119 235 297.9 24.8 502 637.7 271.9
Page 8
356 372 404 413 445 398 300 457 392 420 475 296 448 486 388 388 450
250 161 91 273 159 2,786 40,149 88 3,002 2,259 1,097 405 25 1,607 706 44 475 1,734 123 4,591 259 467 778 6,655 22 136 25 1,023 65 100 2,018 300 483 137 10,017 7,178 41 35,469 3,959 4,123
360 367 384 349 346 340 418 341 359 346 360 335 365 357 307 338 332 369 361 350 394 393 383 410 336 385 379 366 300 337 354 392 335 338 367 369 332 344 317
Suriname Somalia Tanzania Tunisia Zambia Chad Total Europe Danmark Deutschland Russia France Czech Republic Norway Portugal Ukraine Spain Sweden Greece Italy Total Oceania Australia Papua New Guinea New Zealand Tonga New Caledonia Total Asia UAE Oman Macao Pakistan N. Korea Philippine Kazakhstan S. Korea Kyrgyzstan Cambodia Kuwait Malaysia Mongolia Bangladesh Myanmar
616 335 32 4,209 2,381 60 22 2,463 30.8 30.8 20 6 475 344.8 1,051 675 1,623.5 108.3 457.6 199 2,276.5 Page 9
259 384 497 338 403 635 659 449 438 392 384 421 355 421 366 392 232 356 -
528 25 15,881 286 286 16 106,433 140 200 14,352 44 20 22 311 22 488 40 156 88 15,883 1,674 396 186 50 48 2,354 729 389 130 2,375 2,016 5,879 9,966 4,291 1,462 232 10 2,858 1,061 80,901 29,065
359 360 355 343 334 420 387 175 299 374 345 375 342 370 341 405 418 321 498 362 411 330 398 352 339 367 301 344 341 280 341 288 372 490 322 226 308 324
Nepal Japan Sri Lanka Sudan Tajikistan Taiwan Thailand Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Hongkong Singapore Syria Yemen Iran Israel India Indonesia Vietnam Total Others Total All data sourced from CIQ
17.5 190 1,475 1,352.6 278.8 2,940 110.6 218 4,144.4 125 2,689.7 20,778 158 31,260
469 418 378 380 337 345 417 401 410 393 385
60 427 5,965 13,156 356 66 7,781 4,099 10,417 1,648 1,583 1,289 4,407 14,156 20 8,387 3,165 64,161 282,507 1 447,324
424 342 333 313 319 341 331 299 295 356 356 333 345 347 340 354 336 332
The volume and average prices of China's Export Solid Caustic soda 2008
Volume USD/MT
390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300
Volume
Average prices
Note: Average prices of Export Solid caustic soda are calculated from General Trade.
Page 10
Downstream market
Industry Alumina Paper pulp Novamat Soap Synthetic detergent Production yield in June 10K DMT 201.7 183.3 11.6 7.6 59.2 Growth yr-on-yr% 24.2 -3 -8.6 14.4 2.6
Forecast
August domestic caustic soda market was more diffused by the Olympic atmosphere, and producers in the cities that would hold Olympic Games and the ones which were surrounding of Beijing would continue to maintain low operating rate or ever decline further. The unbalance between supply and demand would cause the price of caustic soda to consolidate in the future market.
July, run at a low operating rate in the first ten days, then run normal in the middle ten days
July, operating rate was not full August 2, plan to shut down for maintenance July, run normally basically for the 110 kt/yr
Jiangdong Chemical
normal
unit; Expansion by 60 kt/yr new unit in the middle ten days of July
E.China
July, running normally July, running normally August, plan to commission for 50 kt/yr new unit July, run normally for 100 kt/yr membrane
normal
grade unit in Zhenyang, Ningbo and 110 kt/yr membrane grade unit in Shangao
S.China
normal normal June, run at 70-80% normal June, run normally June, run at 50%
SW.China
Page 12
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
70
100 250 150 100 360 200 100 20 40 90 100 12 200 150 160 100
Page 13
SODA ASH
Domestic market
Domestic light soda ash prices remained flat, while dense soda ash prices mainly kept at a high level in this month. Most producers entered traditional maintenance season in July, so output decreased obviously. In addition some produces actively sought export opportunities, domestic market showed insufficient supply of soda ash. Few tonnages with low prices flew into the market of North China and Northeast due to Olympic Games, so local prevailing prices was at high level. Tonnages with low prices from Centre China had more advantages in East China and South China. Most producers kept low operating rates thanks to a tight supply of raw material especially coal and limestone in July. Meanwhile, Olympic Games also brought some limitations on soda ash transport. Analysts believed that price of soda ash will raise in August.
Average price Region L-Soda July RMB/mt four weeks ago 1911 D-Soda July RMB/mt four weeks ago 2081.75 Prices behaved downward tendency Market situation woke up in this end of month Prevailing prices run smoothly The price still kept at a low level Tonnages with high prices controlled the market Prices was at the lowest level in this region Prices rose slightly in July market movement L D
Forecast
E.China
1916
2075
1920 1728.75
1850 1791
2175 1814.5
2197.75 1895
Page 14
Jan-Jun domestic soda ash average ex-work price trend diagram 2250.00 2200.00 2150.00 2100.00 2050.00 2000.00 1950.00 1900.00 1850.00 1800.00 1750.00 1700.00 1650.00 1600.00 1550.00 1500.00
2Ja 8- n J 14 an -J a 20 n -J 26 an -J a 1- n Fe 7- b F 13 eb -F 19 eb -F 25 eb -F e 2- b M 8 - ar M 1 4 ar -M 20 ar -M 26 ar -M 1- ar A 7- pr A 13 pr -A 19 pr -A 25 pr -A 1- pr M 7 - ay M 1 3 ay -M 19 ay -M 25 ay -M 31 ay -M a 6- y Ju 12 n -J 18 un -J 24 un -J 30 un -J u 6- n J 12 ul -J u 18 l -J 24 ul -J u 30 l -J u l
Export Date
CHINESE SODA ASH EXPORTS To S. Korea Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Bangladesh Japan Philippines Malaysia Nigeria Taiwan Saudi Arabia Peru June 08 Tons 38,623 30,392 22,933 16,705 16,496 12,843 11,916 8,485 3,369 3,038 2,179 2,030 May 08 Tons 45,856 52,097 18,899 24,047 20,235 11,326 14,740 7,041 751 6,240 1,010 Jan-Jun 08 Tons 205,309 222,382 107,825 100,777 77,394 62,081 83,771 37,081 21,972 24,006 2,739 3,040
Page 15
CHINA SODA ASH* EXPORTS IN JUNE 2008 Trade mode Frontier Small Trade Processing Trade External Contractors Project General Trade Others Total All data sourced from CIQ Volume Tons 36 50 184,117 184,465 Sum USD 10,201 31,680 53,670,844 53,772,206 Average prices USD/MT 283 634 292 -
CHINESE SODA ASH EXPORTS TO KEY REGIONS June, 08 Volume, MT S. Korea Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Bangladesh Japan Philippines Malaysia Nigeria Taiwan others total 38,623 30,392 22,933 16,705 16,496 12,843 11,916 8485 3,369 3,038 19,666 184,465 average price, USD/MT 286 290 293 284 303 285 289 302 304 296
Page 16
The volume and average prices of China's Export Soda Ash 2008
250,000 200,000 Volume 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08
Volume
Average prices
Page 17
Hydrochloric acid
CHINESE DOMESTIC PRICES
E.China July 4 July 11 July 21 July 28 RMB/mt RMB/mt RMB/mt RMB/mt 430-580 430-580 430-580 430-580 S.China 550-650 550-650 550-650 550-650 N.China 550-650 500-630 430-580 430-580 NE.China 650-700 680-730 680-730 700-750 SW.China 650-700 650-700 650-700 650-700 C.China 350-500 380-500 380-500 380-500 NW.China 300-460 300-460 300-460 300-450
CHLORINE
Highlights
Chlorine prevailing prices fluctuated sharply in July. In early July market situation had warmed up in East China, North China and Center China. However domestic chlorine prices dropped continuously in the next days due to the insipid downstream market condition and transportation difficulties. Sluggish market situation affected hydrochloric acid prices.
Average price RMB/mt Region July Four weeks ago 1,548 Prices fluctuated sharply and appeared downward tendency Decreased demand and environmental protection problem affected chlorine prices Most downstream producers shut up during the Olympic Games Market movement Forecast
E.China
1,674
S.China
1,550
1,657
N.China
1,467
1,512
Page 18
C.China
1,441
1,380
Tonnages with low prices controlled market situation Prevailing prices kept at a low level due to excessive supply Affected by Olympic Games, prices dropped at large In this region chlorine market had a greater price gap
NW.China
1,274
1,580
NE.China
1,637
1,500
SW.China Note: 1 2
1,809
1,967
Downstream Sectors
Condition The chlor-alkali producers were back up due to a tight supply of calcium carbide Many producers shut up due to environmental protection In order to prevent price reduction, some producers reduced their operating rates in July Most producers were back up and ran at about 70-80% of capacity In Shandong province some manufactures had to shut up because of the power restriction
Page 19
Glossary
East China North China South China Northeast China Southwest China Center China Northwest China Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shanghai Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shangdong Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian Heilongjian Jilin, Liaoning Sichuan,Chongqing, Yunnan,Guizhou Henan, Hubei, Hunan Shanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, Sinkiang, Ningxia
Subscription:
Tel: 0086-10-64384105
Address: Room 5D Ambassador Mansion Jiuxianqiao Road Chaoyang district Beijing China Post Code:100016
Page 20