Research forecast report

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis

Terry Norman
July 2010

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis

Contents

Contents [1]
Slide no. 5. Document map Executive summary 6. The combination of dramatic traffic growth and slow revenue growth is putting pressure on operator profit margins 7. Connections will grow at a 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015, from 5 billion to more than 7.5 billion worldwide 8. Traffic will grow at a 48% CAGR from 2010 to 2015, from 225PB per month to 1603PB per month 9. Wireless traffic is growing at a phenomenal rate, but revenue per megabyte is in decline 10. Document map Recommendations 11. Recommendations [1] 12. Recommendations [2] 13. Document map Forecast 14. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [1] 15. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [2] 16. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices will increase in developed markets 17. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices will increase in emerging markets 18. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplace will increase for both voice and data services [1] 19. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplace will increase for both voice and data services [2] Slide no. 20. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seven times greater in 2015 than in 2010 [1] 21. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seven times greater in 2015 than in 2010 [2] 22. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5 times greater in developed markets by 2015 [1] 23. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5 times greater in developed markets by 2015 [2] 24. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by 2013 [1] 25. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by 2013 [2] 26. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on total network traffic [1] 27. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on total network traffic [2] 28. Revenue per gigabyte will fall from USD23.21 to USD4.27 in developed markets 29. The adoption of data services will increase ARPU, but revenue per gigabyte will inevitably fall 30. Document map Market drivers and inhibitors 31. Market drivers 32. Improvements to cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [1] 33. Improvements to cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [2]

Analysys Mason Limited 2010

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis

Contents

Contents [2]
Slide no. 34. Improved cellular devices will increase service usage and wireless network traffic [3] 35. Technology enhancements will increase usage and wireless network traffic 36. Technology enhancements improve throughputs, allowing support for a wider range of applications [1] 37. Technology enhancements improve throughputs, allowing support for a wider range of applications [2] 38. More-affordable prices and bundling of services will increase usage and wireless network traffic 39. New services will increase wireless network traffic [1] 40. New services will increase wireless network traffic [2] 41. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices will increase wireless network traffic [1] 42. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices will increase wireless network traffic [2] 43. Growth in the number of mobile connections will increase wireless network traffic 44. Market inhibitors 45. Restriction of some types of service and application by MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [1] 46. Restriction of some types of service and application by MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [2] 47. Improved fixed broadband services, particularly in developed markets, may constrain wireless network traffic Slide no. 48. Handover between fixed and mobile in the home, where broadband usage is highest, will take traffic off-network 49. Spectrum limitations will constrain traffic growth 50. Document map Market definition and methodology 51. Methodology for forecasts of traffic volume and revenue per megabyte 52. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [1] 53. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [2] 54. The basis of the traffic model 55. The traffic model considers traffic from five types of cellular device 56. A number of variables could significantly affect wireless network traffic levels 57. Environmental assumptions for devices 58. Environmental assumptions for wireless technologies 59. Environmental assumptions for pricing and bundling 60. Environmental assumptions for indoor usage 61. Environmental assumptions for the growth in cellular penetration 62. Environmental assumptions for MNOs constraints on certain types of traffic 63. Environmental assumptions for improvements in fixed broadband services

Analysys Mason Limited 2010

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis

Contents

Contents [3]
Slide no. 64. Document map Author and copyright 65. Author 66. Copyright 67. Document map List of tables and figures 68. List of tables and figures [1] 69. List of tables and figures [2] 70. List of tables and figures [3] 71. Document map About Analysys Mason 72. About Analysys Mason 73. Research from Analysys Mason 74. Consulting from Analysys Mason

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Document map: List of figures and tables

Document map

Executive summary Recommendations Forecast Market drivers and inhibitors Market definition and methodology Author and copyright List of figures and tables About Analysys Mason

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List of figures and tables

List of figures and tables [1]

Figure 1: Comparison of the network economics of legacy and LTE networks Figure 2: Mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 3: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 4: Average wireless network traffic per connection, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 5: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 6: Mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 7: Mobile connections by region, 20102015 Figure 8: Mobile devices in use by type, developed markets, 20102015 Figure 9: Mobile devices in use by type, emerging markets, 20102015 Figure 10: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 11: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 20102015 Figure 12: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 13: Traffic from mobile connections, by region, 20102015 Figure 14: Average traffic per mobile connection, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 15: Average traffic per mobile connection, by region, 20102015 Figure 16: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, worldwide, 20102015

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List of figures and tables

List of figures and tables [2]

Figure 17: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, by region, 20102015 Figure 18: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 19: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, by region, 20102015 Figure 20: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 21: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, by region, 20102015 Figure 22: Major factors driving increases in wireless network traffic from cellular users Figure 23: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 20082010 Figure 24: Mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015 Figure 25: Major factors constraining growth in wireless network traffic from cellular users Figure 26: Household penetration of fixed broadband services in selected countries, 20102015 Figure 27: Fixed and mobile, mobile-only and fixed-only broadband households in CEE, 20092015 Figure 28: Current spectrum supply and spectrum to be awarded in Europe in the next five years for mobile use Figure 29: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 30: Basis of the wireless network traffic model Figure 31: Five types of cellular device included in the traffic model

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List of figures and tables

List of figures and tables [3]

Table 1: Examples of smartphone applications that could consume substantial amounts of data Tables 2ab: Summary of advanced cellular broadband technologies Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9: Table 10: Regional breakdown used in this report Traffic modelling assumptions for devices Traffic modelling assumptions for wireless technologies Traffic modelling assumptions for pricing and bundling Traffic modelling assumptions for indoor usage Traffic modelling assumptions for growth in cellular penetration Traffic modelling assumptions for MNOs constraints on certain types of traffic Traffic modelling assumptions for improvements in fixed broadband services

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Document map: About Analysys Mason

Document map

Executive summary Recommendations Forecast Market drivers and inhibitors Market definition and methodology Author and copyright List of figures and tables About Analysys Mason

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About Analysys Mason

About Analysys Mason

Analysys Mason is the preferred partner of telecoms, IT and media organisations worldwide. Through our global presence, we deliver strategy advice, operations support and market intelligence to leading commercial and public sector organisations in more than 80 countries. Our clients rely on our consulting and research services to make better business decisions. The intellectual rigour, operational experience and insight of our people have helped our clients to meet some of the toughest challenges they face within the industry. We have consistently delivered significant and sustainable business benefits to our clients during the past 20 years on issues ranging from advising on operator strategy and tactics, development of national sector regulation, through execution of major financial transactions, to the deployment of public and private network infrastructure. We are respected worldwide for the exceptional quality of our work, our independence and the flexibility of our teams in responding to client needs. We are passionate about what we do and are committed to delivering excellence to our clients. Analysys Mason offers two types of service: Consulting: We work with our clients to provide customised advice and support throughout the business cycle, helping major players to set strategy, plan for change and implement that change. We have worked on a wide range of projects that support our partners and help them to increase revenue, reduce costs, plan for the future and minimise risk. Research: We offer research programmes and custom research to help our clients to identify key strategic issues, formulate strategies, identify trends and opportunities, and measure performance. For more information visit our website at www.analysysmason.com.

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About Analysys Mason

Research from Analysys Mason

Analysys Mason provides a portfolio of research services that help organisations to understand major strategic shifts, as well as country- and region-specific trends, in the global telecoms industry. Through a combination of granular market data and forecasts, and independent qualitative analysis and insight, we enable clients to make informed strategic and tactical decisions, reduce risk and benchmark their business performance. Analysys Masons research portfolio Research streams Operators, Services and Markets Research programmes
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About Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

Analysys Mason offers consulting services that span the entire business development cycle from strategy development, through planning and implementation, to review. We help clients in the public and private sectors to make the best possible business decisions on many key issues, including investment, strategy, policy, procurement, network roll-out and market entry. Analysys Mason advises clients in many industry sectors

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