ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK 2010

NAME I/C NO. FORM TEACHERS NAME

Muhamad Fadilah Bin Fatahalmubbil 930213-14 6259 5 BIJAK TUAN HJ. MOHD DANI BIN MD. ALI

CONTENT
APPRECATION PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 PART 4 PART 5 FURTHER EXPLORATION REFLECTION

APPERECIATING
After weeks of struggle and hard work to complete assignment given to us by our teacher, Tuan Hj. Mohd Dani bin Md Ali. I finally did it within 2 weeks with stratification and senses of success because I have understood more deeply about the interest and investment more than before. I have to be grateful and thankful to all parties who have helped me in the process of completing my assignment. It was a great experience for me as I have learnt to be more independent and to work as group. For this, I would like to take this opportunity to express my thankfulness once again to all parties concerned.

Firstly, I would like to thanks my Additional Mathematics teacher; Tuan Hj. Mohd Dani bin Md Ali for patiently explained to us the proper and precise way to complete this assignment. With his help and guidance, many problems I have encountered had been solved.

Beside that, I would like to thanks my parents for all their support and encouragement they have given to me. In addition, my parents had given me guidance on the methods to account for investment which have greatly enhanced my knowledge on particular area. Last but not least, I would like to express my thankfulness to my cousin and friends, who have patiently explained to me and did this project with me in group.

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STASTISTIC

Most experimental searches for paranormal phenomena are statistical in nature. A subject repeatedly attempts a task with a known probability of success due to chance, and then the number of actual successes is compared to the chance expectation. If a subject scores consistently higher or lower than the chance expectation after a large number of attempts, one can calculate the probability of such a score due purely to chance, and then argue, if the chance probability is sufficiently small, that the results are evidence for the existence of some mechanism (precognition, telepathy, psychokinetic, cheating, etc.) which allowed the subject to perform better than chance would seem to permit.

Claims of evidence for the paranormal are usually based upon statistics which diverge so far from the expectation due to chance that some other mechanism seems necessary to explain the experimental results. To interpret the results of our RetroPsychoKinesis experiments, we'll be using the mathematics of probability and statistics, so it's worth spending some time explaining how we go about quantifying the consequences of chance.

PART 1

TASK 1:
a) HISTORY OF PROBABILITY Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or

has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such area of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and underlying mechanics of complex systems. The scientific study of probability is a modern development. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions of use in those problems only arose much later. According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances."[4] However, in legal contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was good evidence. Aside from some elementary considerations made by Girolamo Cardano in the 16th century, the doctrine of probabilities dates to the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal (1654). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject. Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de Moivre'sDoctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics. See Ian Hacking's The Emergence of Probability and James Franklin's The Science of Conjecture for histories of the early development of the very concept of mathematical probability. The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger Cotes's Opera Miscellanea (posthumous, 1722), but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 1755 (printed 1756) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down the axioms that positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that there are certain assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall; continuous errors are discussed and a probability curve is given.

Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the combination of observations from the principles of the theory of probabilities. He represented the law of probability of errors by a curve y = *(x), x being any error and y its probability, and laid down three properties of this curve: 1. It is symmetric as to the y-axis; 2. The x-axis is an asymptote, the probability of the error being 0; 3. The area enclosed is 1, it being certain that an error exists. He also gave (1781) a formula for the law of facility of error (a term due to Lagrange, 1774), but one which led to unmanageable equations. Daniel Bernoulli (1778) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a system of concurrent errors. PROBABILITY THEORY Like other theories, the theory of probability is a representation of probabilistic concepts in formal termsthat is, in terms that can be considered separately from their meaning. These formal terms are manipulated by the rules of mathematics and logic, and any results are then interpreted or translated back into the problem domain. There have been at least two successful attempts to formalize probability, namely the Kolmogorov formulation and the Cox formulation. In Kolmogorov's formulation (see probability space), sets are interpreted as events and probability itself as a measure on a class of sets. In Cox's theorem, probability is taken as a primitive (that is, not further analyzed) and the emphasis is on constructing a consistent assignment of probability values to propositions. In both cases, the laws of probability are the same, except for technical details. There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not compatible with the laws of probability as they are usually understood.

APPLICATION Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation where it is called "pathway analysis", often measuring well-being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake based on statistical analyses of their probable effect on the population as a whole. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict. It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it may be of some importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probability assessments are made, and how they contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially in a democracy. Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely associated with the product's warranty b) CATEGORIES OF PROBABILITY Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a large

number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.

Empirical Probability Formula

P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur. top = number of ways the specific event occurs. bottom = number of ways the experiment could occur.

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur, divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability of events that come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes. Theoretical Probability Formula

P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur. n(E) = number of equally likely outcomes of E. n(S) = number of equally likely outcomes of sample space S. Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities: Empirical probability is the probability a person calculates from many different trials. For example someone can flip a coin 100 times and then record how many times it came up heads and how many times it came up tails. The number of recorded heads divided by 100 is the empirical probability that one gets heads.

The theoretical probability is the result that one should get if an infinite number of

trials were done. One would expect the probability of heads to be 0.5 and the probability of tails to be 0.5 for a fair coin.

PART 2

(a) Suppose you are playing the Monopoly game with two of your friends. To start the game, each player will have to toss the die once. The player who obtains the highest number will start the game. List all the possible outcomes when the die is tossed once. = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

(b) Chart

Die 2

6 5 4 3 2 1
0

(1, 6) (1, 5) (1, 4) (1, 3) (1, 2) (1, 1)

(2, 6) (2, 5) (2, 4) (2, 3) (2, 2) (2, 1)

(3, 6) (3, 5) (3, 4) (3, 3) (3, 2) (3, 1)

(4, 6) (4, 5) (4, 4) (4, 3) (4, 2) (4, 1)

(5, 6) (5, 5) (5, 4) (5, 3) (5, 2) (5, 1)

(6, 6) (6, 5) (6, 4) (6, 3) (6, 2) (6, 1) Die 1

Table 1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1) 2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2) 3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3) 4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4) 5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5) 6 (1,6) (2,2) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (7,6)

1 2 3 4 5 6

PART 3

(a)

(b) A={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6) Sum of the dots on both turned faces (x) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6) (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6) (4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6) (5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6) (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)} B= P = both number are prime = {(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)} Q = Difference of 2 number is odd = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,2), (5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)} C=PQ = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5), (5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)} R = the sum of 2 number are even ={(1,1),(1,3),(1,5),(2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(3,1),(3,3),(4,2),(4,4),(4,6),(5,1),(5,3), (5,5),(6,2),(6,4),(6,6)} D=PR = {(2,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)} Possible outcomes (1,1) (1,2)(2,1) (1,3)(2,2)(3,1) (1,4)(2,3)(3,2)(4,1) (1,5)(2,4)(3,3)(4,2)(5,1) (1,6)(2,5)(3,4)(4,3)(5,2) (6,1) (2,6)(3,5)(4,4)(5,3)(6,2) (3,6)(4,5)(5,4)(6,3) (4,6)(5,5)(6,4) (5,6)(6,5) (6,6) Probability, P(x) 1/36 2/36=1/18 3/36=1/12 4/36=1/ 9 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36=1/ 9 3/36=1/12 2/36=1/18 1/36

PART 4

(a)

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 77

f 2 4 4 9 4 11 4 6 3 1 2 50

fx 4 12 16 45 24 77 32 54 30 11 24 329

fx2 6 36 64 225 144 539 256 486 300 121 128 2305

Form the table, f = 50 fx = 329 fx2 =2467

(1) Mean = fx/ f = 329/50 =6.28 (2) Variance, 2 = fx2/f (mean) 2 = 2467/50-60582 = 6.0436 (3) Standard Deviation = fx2/f (mean) 2 =2467/50 6.582 =2.458

fx

fx2

16

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 From the table, f = 100 fx = 691 fx2 = 5387

5 6 16 12 21 10 8 9 5 4 = 100

15 24 80 72 147 80 72 90 55 48 = 691

45 96 400 432 1029 640 648 900 605 576 = 5387

1) Mean = fx / f = 691/100 = 6.91 2) Variance, 2 = fx2 / f (mean) 2 = 5387/100 6.912 = 6.1219 3) Standard Deviation = fx2 / f (mean) 2 = 5387/100 6.912 = 2.474

PART 5

(a) x P(x) 2
1/36

3
1/18

4
1/12

5
1/9

6
1/36

7
1/6

8
1/36

9
1/9

10
1/12

11
1/18

12
1/36

Mean = x P(x) =2(1/36)+3(1/18)+4(1/12)+5(1/9)+6(5/36)+7(1/6)+8(5/36)+9(1/9)+10(1/12)+11(1/18)+1 2(1/36) =7

x2P(x) =22(1/36)+32(1/18)+42(1/12)+52(1/5)+62(5/36)+72(1/6)+82(5/36)+92(1/9)+102(1/12)+112( 1/18)+122(1/36) =54.83

Variance = x2P(x) (mean) 2 =54.83-72 =5.83 Standard Deviation = 5.83=2.415 Mean=xP(x) 2(1/36)+3(1/18)+4(1/12)+5(1/9)+6(5/36)+7(1/6)+5(5/36)+9(1/9)+10(1/12)+11(1/18)+12( 1/36) =7

(b)
Part 4 n=50 n=100 6.58 6.91 Part 5 7

Mean

Variance Standard Deviation

6.0436 2.458

6.1219 2.474

5.83 2.415

For n = 50, mean = 6.58 For n = 100, mean = 6.91 Actual mean = 7 Hence, we get different mean for different number of experiment. As the number of experiments getting bigger, the empirical (experimental) mean will tend to be close to the theoretical (actual) mean. The same will goes with the variance and standard deviation. (c) 0 < mean 7

n become smaller

n become bigger

FURTHER EXPLORATION
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. For example, a single roll of a six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die roll is 1+2+3+4+5+6 6 =3.5 According to the law of large numbers, if a large numbers of dice are rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be close to 3.5, with the accuracy increasing as more dice are rolled. Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of the number of heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a large number of coin flips should be roughly one half. In particular, the proportion of heads after n flips will almost surely converge to one half as n approaches infinity. Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches half, almost surely the absolute (nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the numbers of flips become large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to number of flips will approach zero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number of flips, as the number of flips grows. The LLN is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will converge to the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be balance by the others.

REFLECTION
While I was conducting the project, I had learned many moral values that I practice. This project work had taught me to be more confident when doing something especially the homework given by the teacher. I also learned to be a disciplined type of student which is always sharp on time while doing some work, complete the work by myself and researching the information from the internet. I also felt very enjoy when making this project during the school holidays.