From June 2010 to November 2011

An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Executive Summary
Ontariossupplyoutlookforthenext18monthsremainspositivewithsufficient resourcesavailabletomaintainthereliabilityofOntarioselectricitysystem,andto supplycommunitiesacrosstheprovince.FromJune2010toNovember2011, approximately2,900megawatts(MW)ofnewandrefurbishedsupplyarescheduledto entercommercialoperation.Ofthat,approximately470MWofnewgenerationhas beenannouncedundertheFeedinTariff(FIT)programand180MWcontractedunder theRenewableEnergySupplyIII(RESIII)program. Asaresultofthepositivesupplyconditions,thederegistrationoffourcoalfiredunitsat LambtonandNanticokerepresenting2,000MWofenergysupplyandcapacityhas beenapprovedbytheIESOforearlyfallof2010.Thereplacementfleetfortheseunits hasdemonstratedreliableoperationoverthelasttwopeakperiodsandtheshutdownof theseunitsisnotexpectedtoundulyimpacteitherenergyadequacyorreliabilityof supplyinOntario. ThereturntoserviceoftworefurbishednuclearunitsattheBruceANuclearStationis stillexpectedwithinthe18monthforecasttimeframe;howevertheexpectedinservice datesforthetwounitsarenowthethirdandfourthquartersof2011.Thisadditional 1,500MWcapacitywillincreasesupplyoptions,althoughBruceareasupplywillnotbe abletooperateatfullcapacityuntiltheBrucetoMiltontransmissionlineiscomplete whichisexpectedin2012. Surplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)isexpectedtocontinueovertheforecasttimeframe, especiallyduringthesummersof2010and2011whenbaseloadcapacityisexpectedto exceedforecastminimumdemand.Duringthesetimesofsurplus,theprovincerelies heavilyonitsabilitytoexport.Plannedoutagestoseveralcircuitsmakingupthe OntarioNewYorkinterconnectionatNiagaraarecurrentlybeingconsideredfor NovemberandDecember2010.Ifapproved,theseoutageswillreduceOntariosability toexportpower,andincreasethelikelihoodofSBG.Thecurrentforecastincludesan updatedexportassumptionrecognizingtheevolvingconditionsonOntarios interconnections. Overthenext18months,theIESOcontinuestoexpectarelativelyhighlikelihoodof surplusconditionsinsummeroffpeakperiods,comparedtothewinterandshoulder periodmonths.Limitedprecipitationthispastwinterandspringhascontributedto uncertaintyaroundhydroelectriccapabilityoverthesummermonthsandlowerthan forecasthydroelectricproductionwouldreducesurplusconditions. Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingor exceedingthecapabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem.Toalleviatethesituation, severallocalloadsupplyimprovementprojectswillcomeinserviceoverthenext18

May 20, 2010

Public

Page iii

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

monthstorelieveloadingsofexistingtransmissioninfrastructureandprovide additionalcapacityforfutureloadgrowth. ThroughouttheOutlookperiod,demandwillbeshapedbythreemainfactors:the economy,conservationandthegrowthinembeddedgenerationfromOntarios renewableinitiatives.AlthoughtherisksofOntarioseconomyslippingbackinto recessionhavemoderated,worldeconomiesremainfragileduetohighnationaldebt loads,highoilpricesandtheprospectsofhigherborrowingcosts.WhileCanadahas reportedlyfaredbetterthanmanyothercountries,Ontariosexportbased manufacturingsectorhasseenitscompetitivepositionunderminedbytheriseinvalue oftheCanadiandollar. EnergydemandinOntarioisexpectedtoshowmodestgrowthin2010and2011with increasesof1.3percentand1.0percentrespectively.Thegrowthwillcomefroma broadbasedexpansionoftheeconomy.Themanufacturingsectorisexpectedtoshow anincreaseover2009butisexpectedtolagtherestoftheeconomyasindustrialdemand isnotexpectedtoreturntoprerecessionarylevelsduetothehighCanadiandollarand slowinternationalgrowth.Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainfairlyflatasgrowthis offsetbytargetedconservationprograms. Recentlyannouncedgovernmenttargetsforconservation,whoseimpactsareexpected toshowbeginningJanuary2011,willfacilitatethelongertermreductionofpeak demandandmoderatethegrowthofenergydemandacrosstheprovince.These conservationtargetswillbemetthroughprogramsdeliveredbylocalutilities,andthe OntarioPowerAuthoritywithoversightfromtheOntarioEnergyBoard.Theseefforts, incombinationwithimprovedenergyefficiencyandthedeploymentofsmartmeters, willresultinbothlowerconsumptionandashiftinconsumptionpatterns. Thefollowingtablesummarizesthekeydemandnumbers.

Season Summer 2010 Winter 2010-11 Summer 2011

Normal Weather Peak Extreme Weather Peak (MW) (MW) 23,498 22,473 23,464 25,998 23,782 25,938

May 20, 2010

Public

Page iv

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Conclusions & Observations

Thefollowingconclusionsandobservationsarebasedontheresultsofthisassessment. DemandForecast Electricitydemandisexpectedtoexperienceanincreasein2010and2011.Growthwillbe slowasOntariosenergyintensiveexportbasedindustrieslagtherestoftheeconomy. Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatthroughouttheforecast.Conservationprograms targetingpeakdemand,thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswilloffset theincreasesduetopopulationandbuildingstockgrowth. Withlowerpeakdemandlevelssystemreliabilitywillremainrobust.Althoughhighpeak demandsarelikelyunderextremeweatherconditionstheywillnotposeanyprovincewide reliabilityconcerns. Lowminimumdemandperiodsremainaconcernastheyincreasethelikelihoodofsurplus baseloadgeneration.Thiswillpersistthroughouttheforecast.

ResourceAdequacy Reserverequirementsareexpectedtobemetforallbutoneweekinboththefirmand plannednormalweatherscenario.Thisisduetotwomajorgeneratorplannedoutagesand onemajortransmissionoutageresultinginbottledcapacity. Anumberofgeneratingunitsarescheduledtoreturntoservicefromplannedoutagebefore summer2010. Planstoderegisterfourcoalgenerationunitsbylate2010willcontinueasannounced.Plans forthereturntoserviceoftworefurbishedBrucenuclearunitshavebeendelayedbyafew monthstothethirdandfourthquartersof2011. ThisOutlookdemonstratesthattheinitialemissionlimitsfromcoalpoweredgeneration shouldbeachievableoverthenext18monthperiodwithoutimpactingonreliability, althoughthecompletestrategytoachievereductionsfor2010onwardshasnotbeen confirmed. Normal Weather Scenario Planned Scenario Thereis1weekwherereserveis lowerthanrequired Extreme Weather Scenario Thereare9weekswherereservesare lowerthanrequired.

Firm Scenario

Thereis1weekwherereserveis lowerthanrequired

Thereare12weekswherereserves arelowerthanrequired.

Underthenormalandextremeweatherscenarios,periodswheretheforecastreservesarenot sufficienttomeetrequirementsmayresultinrelianceonimports,therejectionofplanned outagesbytheIESO,ortheuseofemergencyoperatingprocedures.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page v

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

TransmissionAdequacy TheOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystemenhancementsandscheduled maintenanceoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemandunderthenormal weatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod. Thesupplyreliabilityunderextremeweatherconditions,inparticulartotheGTA,willbe furtherimprovedwiththeadditionoftheHaltonHillsGeneratingStationinthethird quarterof2010.Underextremeweatherconditionsthelongtermderatecurrentlyona Trafalgarautotransformermayrequiresomeloadreductionmeasuresifadditionalelements areoutofservice. Severalprojectsrelatingtolocalloadsupplyimprovementswillbeplacedinserviceduring thetimeframeofthisOutlooktohelprelieveloadingsofexistingtransformerstationsand provideadditionaltransformercapacityforfutureloadgrowth. The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntarioNewYorkinterfaceatNiagara Falls.Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto manageintheEasternInterconnection,keepingsystemoperatorsaroundtheGreatLakes, whichincludetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged.Theongoingforcedoutage oftheBP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthesereliability coordinationefforts,addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandhas materiallyledtoincreasednuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelast year.OutagesoftwootherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)are currentlybeingplannedforNovemberandDecember2010.Theseoutageshavethepotential toreducethescheduledtransfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalso impacttheOntariotoMichigantransfers. TransmissionoutagesscheduledinthisOutlookperiodintheBruce,Essa,Niagara, Northeast,Northwest,Ottawa,Southwest,TorontoandWestzoneswillcausereductionsto thegridtransfercapabilityforperiodsoftime.Theresultinglimitreductionsalongwiththe increaseofavailablegenerationinthoseareasmayresultintemporarilybottledgeneration capacity. Transmissionconstraintsoverthe230kVSarnia/WindsortoLondonareamaylimitthe abilitytoutilizethegenerationresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioinconjunctionwith importsfromMichigan.Thiscongestioncouldfurtherincreaseasaresultoftransmission outagesandweatherconditions.ThescheduledshutdownoftwoLambtonGSunitsin October2010isexpectedtoreducethecongestionovertheremainderofthisOutlookperiod. HydroOneiscurrentlyinstallingadditionalreactivecompensationinwesternand southwesternOntarioinpreparationfortheplannedshutdownofthemajorsouthern Ontariocoalfiredunits. ManaginggridvoltagesintheNorthwesthasalwaysrequiredspecialattention,butwiththe significantlylowerdemand,ithasbeenincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptable voltageprofilewithoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply.TheIESO hascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,ineffortstoexamine theshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter. HydroOnesplantoenhancetheexistingMississagiTSandAlgomaTSgenerationrejection schemes,scheduledforcompletionduringthelastquarterof2014,isexpectedtoimprovethe powertransfercapabilityofthetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagi.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page vi

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

RetirementoftheNortheast25Hzsystemwascompletedduringthefirstquarterof2010. Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince.

Operability SBGconditionsareexpectedinsummer2010and2011. InNovemberandDecember2010,scheduledoutagesontheOntarioNewYork interconnectionatNiagarawillimpactOntariosabilitytoexportpower,andincreasethe riskofSBG.Theexportassumptionhasbeenrevisedtoaccountforincreasedexportcapacity viatheHVDCtietoQuebec,aswellasreducedexportcapacityduringsignificantplanned outagestoOntariointerconnections. EndofSection

May 20, 2010

Public

Page vii

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Caution and Disclaimer

Thecontentsofthesematerialsarefordiscussionandinformationpurposesandareprovidedas iswithoutrepresentationorwarrantyofanykind,includingwithoutlimitation,accuracy, completenessorfitnessforanyparticularpurpose.TheIndependentElectricitySystemOperator (IESO)assumesnoresponsibilitytoyouoranythirdpartyfortheconsequencesofanyerrorsor omissions.TheIESOmayrevisethesematerialsatanytimeinitssolediscretionwithoutnotice toyou.AlthougheveryeffortwillbemadebytheIESOtoupdatethesematerialstoincorporate anysuchrevisionsitisuptoyoutoensureyouareusingthemostrecentversion.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page viii

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Table of Contents
Executive Summary .......................................................................................... iii Conclusions & Observations .............................................................................. v Table of Contents .............................................................................................. ix List of Tables ...................................................................................................... x List of Figures .................................................................................................... x 1.0 2.0
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 Updates to This Outlook .......................................................................... 3

Updates to Demand Forecast .................................................................................... 3 Updates to Resources ............................................................................................... 3 Updates to Transmission Outlook ............................................................................... 3 Updates to Operability Outlook .................................................................................. 3

3.0 4.0
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Demand Forecast..................................................................................... 5 Resource Adequacy Assessment ............................................................. 7

Committed and Contracted Generation Resources ....................................................... 7 Summary of Scenario Assumptions ............................................................................ 8 Planned Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather................................................... 9 Firm Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather ...................................................... 10 Comparison of Resource Scenarios........................................................................... 10

5.0
5.1 5.2 5.3

Transmission Reliability Assessment .................................................... 13

Transmission and Load Supply Projects .................................................................... 13 Transmission Outages............................................................................................. 13 Transmission System Adequacy ............................................................................... 14

6.0 7.0
7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

Operability Assessment ......................................................................... 21 Historical Review................................................................................... 23

Weather and Demand Historical Review ................................................................... 23 Hourly Resource Contributions at Time of Weekday Peak ........................................... 23 Report on Initiatives ............................................................................................... 26 Variation from Previous Year ................................................................................... 26

May 20, 2010

Public

Page ix

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

List of Tables
Table Table Table Table Table 3.1: Forecast Summary ................................................................................................ 5 4.1 Existing Generation Resources as of May 5, 2010 ..................................................... 7 4.2 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources .................................................... 8 4.3 Summary of Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................... 9 4.4 Summary of Available Resources ........................................................................... 10

List of Figures
Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ..... 9 Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ........ 10 Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous Outlook ...................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System................................................................ 15 Figure 6.1 Minimum Demand and Baseload Generation ......................................................... 21 Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contributions at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................... 24 Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributions (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of Weekday Peak ................................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 7.2.3 Imports into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................. 25 Figure 7.2.4 Net Interchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ................................. 26

May 20, 2010

Public

Page x

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

1.0 Introduction
ThisOutlookcoversthe18monthperiodfromJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedesthe lastOutlookreleasedinFebruary2010. Thepurposeofthe18MonthOutlookis: ToadvisemarketparticipantsoftheresourceandtransmissionreliabilityoftheOntario electricitysystem; Toassesspotentiallyadverseconditionsthatmightbeavoidedthroughadjustmentor coordinationofmaintenanceplansforgenerationandtransmissionequipment;and Toreportoninitiativesbeingputinplacetoimprovereliabilitywithinthe18month timeframeofthisOutlook.

ThecontentsofthisOutlookfocusontheassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacy. AdditionalsupportingdocumentsarelocatedontheIESOwebsiteat http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/monthsYears/monthsAhead.asp ThisOutlookpresentsanassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacybasedonthestated assumptions,usingthedescribedmethodology.Readersmayenvisionotherpossiblescenarios, recognizingtheuncertaintiesassociatedwithvariousinputassumptions,andareencouragedto usetheirownjudgmentinconsideringpossiblefuturescenarios. SecurityandAdequacyAssessmentsarepublishedontheIESOwebsiteonaweeklyanddaily basis,andprogressivelysupersedeinformationpresentedinthisreport. ReadersareinvitedtoprovidecommentsonthisOutlookreportortogivesuggestionsastothe contentoffuturereports.Todoso,pleasecontactusat: EndofSection TollFree:18884487777 Tel:9054036900 Fax:9054036921 Email:customer.relations@ieso.ca.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 1

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 2

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

2.0 Updates to This Outlook

2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast
Thedemandforecastwasbasedonactualdemand,weatherandeconomicdatathroughtothe endofFebruary2010.Theeconomicoutlookhasbeenupdatedbasedonthemostrecentdata. ActualweatheranddemanddataforMarchandAprilhavebeenincludedinthetables.

2.2 Updates to Resources

Installedcapacityhasincreasedby296MWasaresultofthefollowingchanges: Nuclearupgrade(+20MW) RetirementofWawaitin25Hz(11MW) ThoroldCogenerationProject(+287MW) TheconversionofFortFrances(47MW)fromgastobiomass

Theassessmentusesplannedgeneratoroutagesassubmittedbymarketparticipantstothe IESOsIntegratedOutageManagementSystem(IOMS).ThisOutlookisbasedonsubmitted generationoutageplansasofApril21,2010.

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook

Thelistoftransmissionprojects,plannedtransmissionoutagesandactualexperiencewithforced transmissionoutageshavebeenupdatedfromtheprevious18MonthOutlook.ForthisOutlook, transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIOMSasofMarch25,2010wereused.

2.4 Updates to Operability Outlook

Aforecastofsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)conditionsforthenext18monthshasbeen updatedwithsubmittedgenerationoutageplansasofApril21,2010.Theexpectedcontribution tobaseloadfromvariableresourcessuchashydroelectricandwindgenerationhasalsobeen updatedtoreflectthemostrecentinformation. EndofSection

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 3

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 4

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

3.0 Demand Forecast

TheIESOisresponsibleforforecastingelectricitydemandontheIESOcontrolledgrid.This demandforecastcoverstheperiodJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedestheprevious forecastreleasedFebruary2010.Tablescontainingsupportinginformationarecontainedinthe 2010Q2OutlookTablesspreadsheet. ElectricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseovertheforecasthorizonastheOntarioeconomy experiencesgrowththroughout201011.Industrialdemandwillnotreturntoprerecession levelsbutwillshowimprovementoverthelowsof2009.Thehighdollarwillcontinuetoactasa moderatoronOntarioselectricallyintensiveexportbasedindustries. Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatovertheforecasthorizonasconservationprograms, thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswillacttooffsetincreasesfrom economicanddemographicgrowth. Thefollowingtableshowstheseasonalpeaksandannualenergydemandovertheforecast horizonoftheOutlook.
Table 3.1: Forecast Summary

Season Summer 2010 Winter 2010-11 Summer 2011 Year 2006 Energy 2007 Energy 2008 Energy 2009 Energy 2010 Energy (Forecast) 2011 Energy (Forecast)

Normal Weather Peak (MW) 23,498 22,473 23,464 Normal Weather Energy (TWh) 152.3 151.6 148.9 140.4 142.2 143.6

Extreme Weather Peak (MW) 25,998 23,782 25,938 % Growth in Energy -1.9% -0.5% -1.8% -5.7% 1.3% 1.0%

ForecastDetails Thecompaniondocument,theOntarioDemandForecast,looksatdemandinmoredetail.It containsthefollowing: detailsonthedemandforecast, analysisofhistoricaldemand, discussionoftheimpactofthedriversaffectingdemand.

ThedatacontainedintheOntarioDemandForecastdocumentareincludedinthe2010Q2 OutlookTablesspreadsheet. EndofSection

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 5

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 6

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

4.0 Resource Adequacy Assessment

Thissectionprovidesanassessmentoftheadequacyofresourcestomeettheforecastdemand. Thekeymessagesare: Whenreservesarebelowrequiredlevelswithpotentiallyadverseeffectsonthe reliabilityofthegrid,theIESOhastheauthoritytorejectoutagesbasedontheirorderof precedence. Conversely,anopportunityexistsforadditionaloutageswhenreservesareabove requiredlevels.

Theseactionsaddressshortagesandsurplusesofreservestoalargeextent. Inrecognitionoftheuncertaintythatexistsregardingthefutureavailabilityofresources,two resourcescenariosaredescribedinthissection:theFirmScenarioandthePlannedScenario OverthecourseoftheOutlookperiodabout2,900MWofnewandrefurbishedsupplyis scheduledtocomeintoservice.Mostofthenewsupplyprojectshavestartedtheir commissioningphaseorareintheconstructionphase. TheexistinginstalledgeneratingcapacityissummarizedinTable4.1.Thisexcludescapacitythat iscommissioning.

Table 4.1 Existing Generation Resources as of May 5, 2010

Total Forecast Change in Installed Capability at Number of Installed Fuel Type Capacity Summer Stations Capacity (MW) Peak* (MW) (MW) Nuclear 11,446 10,767 5 20 Hydroelectric 7,903 5,817 70 -11 Coal 6,434 6,161 4 0 Oil / Gas 8,792 7,242 27 240 Wind 1,084 137 8 0 Biomass / Landfill Gas 122 47 6 47 Total 35,781 30,170 120 296 * Actual Capability may be less as a result of transmission constraints

Change in Stations 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

4.1 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources

Table4.2summarizesgenerationthatisscheduledtocomeintoservice,beupgradedorshut downwithintheOutlookperiod.ThisincludesgenerationprojectsintheIESOsConnection AssessmentandApprovalProcess(CAA)thatareunderconstructionandprojectscontractedby theOPA.DetailsregardingtheIESOsCAAprocessandthestatusoftheseprojectscanbefound ontheIESOswebsiteathttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/connassess/ca.asp. TheestimatedeffectivedateinTable4.2indicatesthedateonwhichadditionalcapacityis assumedtobeavailabletomeetOntariodemandorshutdown.Forprojectsthatareunder contract,theestimatedeffectivedateisthebestestimateofthedatewhenthecontractrequires theadditionalcapacitytobeavailable.Ifaprojectisdelayedtheestimatedeffectivedatewillbe thebestestimateofthecommercialinservicedatefortheproject.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 7

IESO_REP_0608v1.0 Table 4.2 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources

Proponent/Project Name Halton Hills Generating Station Shutdown of Lambton G1 and G2 Shutdown of Nanticoke G3 and G4 Return of Sandy Falls as 60 Hz plant Return of Lower Sturgeon as 60 Hz plant Return of Wawaitin as 60 Hz plant Hound Chute Grid-connected FIT Projects Raleigh Wind Energy Centre Leamington Pollution Control Plant Bruce Unit 2 Grid-connected FIT Projects Grid-connected FIT Projects Grid-connected FIT Projects Becker Cogeneration Bruce Unit 1 Grid-connected FIT Projects Kruger Energy Chatham Wind Project Total Zone Southwest West Southwest Northeast Northeast Northeast Northeast West West West Bruce Northeast West Southwest Northwest Bruce Southwest Southwest Fuel Type Gas Coal Coal Water Water Water Water Wind Wind Oil Uranium Wind Wind Wind Biomass Uranium Wind Wind Estimated Effective Date 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2010-Q4 2010-Q4 2010-Q4 2010-Q4 2010-Q4 2010Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Change (Previous Reported Date)

18-Month Outlook

Capacity Considered Project Status Commissioning Firm (MW) 632 -970 -980 Planned (MW) 632 -970 -980 5 14 15 10 166 78 2 750 60 49 69 15 750 125 101 890

2011-Q1

2011-Q3

Construction Construction Construction Construction At Various Stages Construction Approvals & Permits Construction At Various Stages At Various Stages At Various Stages Approvals & Permits Construction At Various Stages Approvals & Permits -1,318

NotestoTable4.2:
1. 2. 3. ShadingindicatesachangefromthepreviousOutlook. Thetotalmaynotaddupduetorounding.Totaldoesnotincludeinservicefacilities. Projectstatusprovidesanindicationoftheprojectprogress.Themilestonesusedare: a. ConnectionAssessmenttheprojectisundergoinganIESOsystemimpactassessment b. Approvals&Permitstheproponentisacquiringmajorapprovalsandpermitsrequired tostartconstruction(e.g.environmentalassessment,municipalapprovalsetc.) c. Constructiontheprojectisunderconstruction d. CommissioningtheprojectisundergoingcommissioningtestswiththeIESO

4.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions

Inordertoassessfutureresourceadequacy,theIESOmustmakeassumptionsontheamountof availableresources.TheOutlookconsiderstwoscenarios:aFirmScenarioandaPlanned ScenarioascomparedinTable4.3 BothscenariosstartingpointistheexistinginstalledresourcesshowninTable4.1.Theplanned scenarioassumesthatallresourcesthatarescheduledtocomeintoserviceareavailableoverthe studyperiodwhiletheFirmScenarioonlyassumesthosescheduledtocomeintoserviceoverthe first3months.Bothscenariosrecognizethatresourcesthatareinservicearenotavailableduring timesforwhichthegeneratorhassubmittedplannedoutages.Whatisalsoconsideredforboth scenariosisthegeneratorplannedshutdownorretirementwhichhashighcertaintyof happeninginthefuture.TheFirmandPlannedScenariosalsodifferintheirassumptions regardingtheamountofdemandmeasuresandgenerationcapacity. Thegenerationcapabilityassumptionsareasfollows: Hydroelectriccapability(includingenergyandoperatingreserve)isbasedonmedian historicalvaluesduringweekdaypeakdemandhoursfromMay2002toMarch2010. Thermalgeneratorscapacityandenergycontributionsarebasedonmarketparticipant submissions,includingplannedoutages,expectedforcedoutageratesandseasonal deratings. ForwindgenerationthemonthlyWindCapacityContribution(WCC)valuesareusedatthe timeofweekdaypeak,whiletotalenergycontributionisassumedtobe30%.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 8

IESO_REP_0608v1.0 Table 4.3 Summary of Scenario Assumptions

18-Month Outlook

Assumptions
Existing Installed Resources

Planned Scenario
Total Capacity 35,781 MW

Firm Scenario
Total Capacity 35,781 MW Only Capacity Changes, Generator shutdowns or retirements, Commissioning Generators and Generators starting in the first 3 months -1,318 MW Incremental

Resource

New Generation and Capacity Changes

All

890 MW

Demand Forecast

Conservation

Incremental growth of 150 MW on peak Incremental Incremental growth of 128 MW on peak Incremental 1114 MW Existing 699 MW

Embedded Generation

Demand Measures

4.3 Planned Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather

ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.1.
Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather
Reserve Above Requirement [MW]
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Planned Scenario Extreme Weather Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + Required Reserve) Planned Scenario Normal Weather

-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 Week Ending 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 9

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

4.4 Firm Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather

ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.2.
Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather
Reserve Above Requirement [MW]
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + Required Reserve) Firm Scenario Normal Weather

-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 Week Ending 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011 Firm Scenario Extreme Weather

4.5 Comparison of Resource Scenarios

Table4.4showsasnapshotoftheforecastavailableresources,underthetwoscenarios,atthe timeofthesummerandwinterpeakdemandsduringtheOutlook. Themonthlyforecastofenergyproductioncapability,asprovidedbymarketparticipants,is includedinthe2010Q2OutlookTablesAppendixA,TableA7.
Table 4.4 Summary of Available Resources
Notes Description 1 2 3 4 5 6 Installed Resources (MW) Imports (MW) Total Resources (MW) Total Reductions in Resources (MW) Demand Measures (MW) Available Resources (MW) Summer Peak 2010 Firm Planned Scenario Scenario 35,781 35,781 0 0 35,781 35,781 7,435 7,435 699 951 29,045 29,297 Winter Peak 2011 Firm Planned Scenario Scenario 34,463 34,751 0 0 34,463 34,751 3,986 4,264 699 1,042 31,176 31,529 Summer Peak 2011 Firm Planned Scenario Scenario 34,463 35,805 0 0 34,463 35,805 5,646 6,203 699 1,114 29,516 30,716

NotestoTable4.4:
1. 2. 3. 4. InstalledResources:Thisisthetotalgenerationcapacityassumedtobeinstalledatthetimeofthe summerandwinterpeaks. Imports:TheamountofexternalcapacityconsideredtobedeliveredtoOntario. TotalResources:ThesumofInstalledResources(line1)andImports(line2). TotalReductionsinResources:Representthesumofderatings,plannedoutages,limitationsdueto transmissionconstraints,generationconstraintsduetotransmissionoutages/limitationsandallowance forcapabilitylevelsbelowratedinstalledcapacity. DemandMeasures:Theamountofdemandavailabletobereduced. AvailableResources:EqualsTotalResources(line3)minusTotalReductionsinResources(line4)plus DemandMeasures(line5).

5. 6.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 10

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

ComparisonoftheWeeklyAdequacyAssessmentsforthePlannedScenario Figure4.3providesacomparisonbetweentheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthe presentOutlookandtheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthepreviousOutlook publishedonFebruary23,2010.Thedifferenceismainlyduetothechangestooutages,in servicedelaysandthechangeinthedemandforecast.

Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous Outlook
Reserve Above Requirement [MW]
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Previous Outlook Planned Scenario Present Outlook Planned Scenario Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + Required Reserve)

-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 06 Jun 2010

Normal Weather
05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 Week Ending 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011

ResourceadequacyrisksarediscussedindetailintheMethodologytoPerformLongTerm Assessments(IESO_REP_0266). EndofSection

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 11

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 12

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

5.0 Transmission Reliability Assessment

ThissectionprovidesanassessmentofthereliabilityoftheOntariotransmissionsystemforthe Outlookperiod.Thetransmissionreliabilityassessmenthasthreekeyobjectives: Toidentifyallmajortransmissionandloadsupplyprojectsthatareplannedforcompletion duringtheOutlookperiodandtopresenttheirreliabilitybenefits. Toforecastanyreductionintransmissioncapacitybroughtaboutbyspecifictransmission outages.Foramajortransmissioninterfaceorinterconnection,thereductionintransmission capacityduetoanoutageconditioncanbeexpressedasachangeinthebaseflowlimit associatedwiththeinterfaceorinterconnection. Toidentifyequipmentoutageeventsonthegridthatcouldrequirecontingencyplanningby marketparticipantsorbytheIESO.Plannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedin conjunctionwithmajorplannedresourceoutagesandthescheduledcompletionofnew generationandtransmissionprojectstoidentifytransmissionreliabilityrisks.

5.1 Transmission and Load Supply Projects

TheIESOrequirestransmitterstoprovideinformationonthetransmissionprojectsthatare plannedforcompletionwithinthe18monthperiod.Constructionofseveraltransmission reinforcementsareplannedforserviceduringtheOutlookperiod.Majortransmissionandload supplyprojectsplannedtobeinserviceareshowninAppendixB.Projectsthatareinserviceor whosecompletionhasbeendeferredwellbeyondtheperiodofthisOutlookarenotshown.The listincludesonlythetransmissionprojectsthatrepresentmajormodificationsorareconsidered toprovidesignificantimprovementtosystemreliability.Minortransmissionequipment replacementsorrefurbishmentsareexcluded. Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingorexceedingthe capabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem.Toaddressthisproblemandprovideadditional transmissioncapacityforfutureloadgrowth,Ontariotransmittersanddistributorshaveinitiated planstobuildneworreplaceexistingtransformerstationsandreinforcethetransmissionsystem asnecessary. TheseneededreinforcementswereconfirmedbytheIESOduringrelatedconnection assessments.Severaloftheseprojectsarecurrentlyunderconstructionandplannedforinservice duringtheperiodofthisOutlook.

5.2 Transmission Outages

Theassessmentoftransmissionoutagesislimitedtothosewithascheduleddurationofgreater thanfivedaysortothoseoutagesthatarepartofaprojectwherethecombinedscheduled durationisgreaterthanfivedays.Asthestarttimeoftheoutageapproaches,actualoutage scheduleandadditionaloutagerequirements,aswellasoutageswithascheduleddurationof fivedaysorlesscouldimposefurthertransmissioncapacityrestrictions.Priortoapprovingand releasinganoutage,theIESOwillreassesstheoutageforpotentialsystemimpacts,takinginto accountallcurrentandforecastedconditions. TheIESOsassessmentofthetransmissionoutageplansisshowninAppendixC,TablesC1to C10.Inthesetables,eachelementisassessedindividuallybyindicatingthepossibleimpactsand

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 13

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

thereductionintransmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimits.Wheremultipleoutagesare scheduledduringthesameperiod,thecombinedeffectofalloutagesonthereductionin transmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimitsispresented.Wheremultipleoutagesare scheduledduringthesameperiodandreliabilityisaffected,theIESOwillrequestthetransmitter toreschedulesomeoftheoutages.Themethodologyusedtoassessthetransmissionoutage plansisdescribedintheIESOdocumenttitledMethodologytoPerformLongTerm Assessments(IESO_REP_0266). Theplannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedincorrelationwithmajorplannedresource outagesandscheduledcompletiondatesofnewgenerationandtransmissionprojects.This allowstheIESOtoidentifytransmissionsystemreliabilityconcernsandtohighlightthoseoutage plansthatneedtobeadjusted.Achangetoanoutagemayincludereschedulingtheoutage, reducingthescheduleddurationorreducingtherecalltime. Thisassessmentwillalsoidentifyanyresourcesthathavepotentialorareforecasttobe constrainedduetotransmissionoutageconditions.Transmittersandgeneratorsareexpectedto haveamutualinterestindevelopinganongoingarrangementtocoordinatetheiroutage planningactivities.TransmissionoutagesthatmayaffectgenerationaccesstotheIESO controlledgridshouldbecoordinatedwiththegeneratoroperatorsinvolved,especiallyattimes whendeficiencyinreserveisforecast.UndertheMarketRules,wheretheschedulingofplanned outagesbydifferentmarketparticipantsconflictssuchthatbothoralloutagescannotbe approvedbytheIESO,theIESOwillinformtheaffectedmarketparticipantsandrequestthat theyresolvetheconflict.Iftheconflictremainsunresolved,theIESOwilldeterminewhichofthe plannedoutagescanbeapprovedaccordingtothepriorityofeachplannedoutageasdetermined bytheMarketRulesdetailedinChapter5,Sections6.4.13to6.4.18.ThisOutlookcontains transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIESOasofMarch25,2010.

5.3 Transmission System Adequacy

Generally,IESOOutlooksidentifytheareasoftheIESOcontrolledgridwheretheprojected extremeweatherloadingisexpectedtoapproachorexceedthecapabilityofthetransmission facilitiesfortheconditionsforecastintheplanningperiod.Wheretheloadingisprojectedto exceedthecapabilityofthetransmissionfacilities,thereisalsoanincreasedriskofload interruptions. TheOntariogenerationmixischangingrapidlywiththeadditionofnewformsofresourcesand theplannedshutdownofcoalresources.Thetransmissionsystemneedstoevolveto accommodatethesupplymixchangesandtheincorporationofnewgenerationwhile maintainingthereliabledeliveryofelectricitytotheconsumers.Overthelastfewyears,Hydro One,theOPAandtheIESOhavebeencollaboratinginthedevelopmentofanumberof transmissionenhancementsrequiredtoaccommodatethesechanges.Someofthesetransmission enhancementsarescheduledtocomeintoserviceduringtheperiodofthisOutlook. TheIESOworkswithHydroOneandotherOntariotransmitterstoidentifythehighestpriority transmissionneeds,andtoensurethatthoseprojectswhoseinservicedatesareatriskaregiven asmuchpriorityaspractical,especiallythoseaddressingreliabilityneedsforpeakdemand periodsofthisOutlook.WehavealsobeenworkingcloselywiththeOPAtospecifythe transmissionenhancementslocation,timingandrequirementstosatisfyreliabilitystandards.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 14

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Withinthecontextofthisapproach,theOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystem enhancementsandknowntransmissionoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemand underthenormalweatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod.

5.3.1

Toronto and Surrounding Area

TheGreaterTorontoArea(GTA)electricitysupplyismainlyprovidedbytheTrafalgar, Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers,Pickeringgenerationstation (GS)andotherlocalresourcesasdepictedinFigure5.1.Theavailabilityofthesefacilitiesis criticaltoensuringreliableelectricitysupplyforTorontoandsurroundingarea.

Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System

ThereliablesupplyofdemandintheGTAunderextremeweatherconditionsforecastedforthe Outlookperiodrequiresaminimumnumberof500/230kVautotransformersatTrafalgar, Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywoodandPickeringunitsinserviceatratedcapabilities.Forthe summer2010forecastedpeakdemand,all500/230kVautotransformersareexpectedtobein service.TheprojectedloadingsontheTrafalgar,Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230 kVautotransformers,undernormalweatherconditions,areexpectedtobewithintheircapability duringtheseplannedoutages.Underextremeweatherconditions,duetoalongtermderated

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 15

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Trafalgarautotransformer,someloadreductionmeasuresmayberequiredtomanageadditional contingencies. ThecapabilityoftheGTA500/230kVautotransformersissufficienttosupplythesummer2010 normalandextremeweatherdemand.IfanyoneGTA500/230 kVautotransformerisforcedout ofservice,thecapabilityoftheremainingtransformerswillsufficeaslongasatleastfour Pickeringunitsareinserviceatthetimeofthecontingency.Similarly,atleastfivePickering unitswouldneedtobeinservicetooffsetthelossoftwo500/230kVautotransformers. Subsequentautotransformer,generationoutagesorderatescouldresultinmitigatingmeasures beingrequiredtoreducetheremainingGTA500/230kVautotransformersloadingswithintheir capability. PortlandsEnergyCentreprovidesloadingreliefmainlytothe230/115kVLeaside autotransformersbutalsototheCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers.GorewayStation providessignificantloadingrelieftotheClaireville500/230kVautotransformers,especiallyin caseofmultipleautotransformeroutages.TheplannedadditionofHaltonHillsGSinthethird quarterof2010willfurtherreducethepeakloadingoftheTrafalgar500/230kVautotransformers andallowformoreoperationalflexibility. The230kVtransmissioncorridorbetweenTrafalgarTSandRichviewTSwhichsupplies Brampton,MississaugaandpartsofCaledonandHaltonHillscouldbecomeloadedverycloseto itscapabilityduringsummer2010underextremeweatherconditions.ThenewHurontario switchingstationandtheexpansionofthe230kVlinesfromCardiffTSthatwasrecentlyplaced inservicewillrelievetheloadingofthiscorridorandalleviatethisproblem. TheYorkregionloadservingcapabilitywillbereinforcedwiththeadditionofYorkEnergy Centrethatisscheduledtogoinserviceattheendof2011. OutagesfortheClairevilleTSenhancementworkcontinueduringthecurrentOutlookperiod. SomeoutageswillresultinsmallreductionstosouthernOntariotransmissioninterfacelimits.

5.3.2

Bruce and Southwest Zones

PlannedrefurbishmentsattheBrucegenerationstationandnewwindpowerresourcesin southwesternOntariowillincreasegenerationcapacityintheBruceandSouthwestzones.The neartermtransmissionreinforcementsrequiredtoaccommodatetheextragenerationareon schedulewiththeinstallationofoneadditionalcapacitoratBuchanan. Inadditiontotheneartermreinforcementsdescribedabove,interimmeasuresarebeingplanned forthetimewhenBruceisoperatedwithsevenandeightunitsbeforetheproposed500kV doublecircuitlinebetweenBruceandMiltonisavailable.Theinterimmeasuresincludethe installationofadditionaldynamicvoltagecontrolfacilitiesatNanticokeandDetweiler, scheduledtogoinserviceduringthesecondquarterof2011andwhennecessary,maximizing theavailablereactivepowerfromtheremainingNanticokeunits.Thesemeasurestogetherwith thenewshuntcapacitors,themodificationsoftheexistingBrucespecialprotectionsystemand plannedshutdownoffourcoalfiredunitsinOctober2010willfurtherreducethepotentialfor constrainedgeneration.Inthelongerterm,theproposed500kVlinefromBrucetoMiltonwill providetherequiredtransmissioncapabilitytodeliverthefullbenefitsoftheBruce refurbishmentprojectandthedevelopmentofnewrenewableresourcesinsouthwesternOntario. Topreventlowvoltageconditionsinthe115kVtransmissionsystemintheWoodstockarea duringsummerextremeweatherconditions,HydroOneisplanningtoaddanewtransformer

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 16

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

stationandasecondsupplypointbyextendingthe230kVtransmissionlinesfromIngersollto Woodstockareaandinstallinganew230/115kVtransformerstation.Theseplans,scheduledto becompletedduringthesecondquarterof2011,willprovideanincreasedlevelofsupply reliability,andsupportfurtherloadgrowthinthearea. HydroOneiscurrentlyundertakingmajorupgradeworkatBurlingtonTSwhichwillresolve limitationsinthestationsabilitytosupplytheBurlington115kVarealoads,allowfutureload growthandyieldamoreflexibleconfiguration.Theremainingwork,whichincludesthe replacementofall115kVbreakersandthereplacementoflimitingbussections,isscheduledto becompletedbytheendofthefourthquarterof2012. Theexisting115kVtransmissionfacilitiesintheGuelphareaareoperatingclosetocapacityand thereislimitedcapabilityavailabletosupplyadditionalload.HydroOne,theaffected transmitter,andtheOPAarereviewingvariousoptionsforenhancingtheoverallsupply capabilitytotheGuelphareaandadecisiononthepreferredsolutionisexpectedinthefallof 2010. AsolutionalsoremainsrequiredintheCambridgearea,asexistingtransmissioninfrastructureis unabletomeettheIESOsloadrestorationcriteriafollowingacontingency.TheOPAis reviewingaproposaltoinstallgasfiredgenerationcapacityatCambridgePrestonTS.

5.3.3

Niagara Zone and the New York Interconnection

ThecompletiondatefortransmissionreinforcementsfromtheNiagararegionintotheHamilton Burlingtonareacontinuestobedelayed.ThisdelayimpactsboththeuseoftheavailableOntario generationintheNiagaraareaandimportsintotheprovince,particularlyduringhotweather andhighdemandperiods. The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntarioNewYorkinterfaceatNiagara Falls.Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto manageintheEasternInterconnection,keepingsystemoperatorsaroundtheGreatLakes,which includetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged.Thelongtermforcedoutageofthe BP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthesereliabilitycoordinationefforts, addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandmateriallyledtoincreased nuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelastyear.Plannedoutagesoftwo otherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)arecurrentlybeingplannedfor NovemberandDecember2010.Theseoutageshavethepotentialtoreducethescheduled transfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalsoimpacttheOntariotoMichigan transfers.Inordertohelpfacilitatethesepotentialoutages,theIESOrecentlydirectedHydro OnetoscheduleandcompletetheconstructionofabypassuntilthefailedR76voltageregulator isreplaced.TheexpectedreturntoserviceofBP76withR76replacediscurrentlyDecember 2012.

5.3.4

East Zone and Ottawa Zone

SomeoutagesplannedoverthisOutlookperiodintheOttawaareawillreduceitssupply capabilitybutnoloadreductionmeasuresareexpectedtoberequired.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 17

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

5.3.5

West Zone and the Michigan Interconnection

TransmissionconstraintsinthiszonemayrestrictresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioandimports fromMichigan.ThisisevidentinthebottledgenerationamountsshownfortheBruceandWest zonesinTablesA3andA6.TheplannedshutdownoftwoLambtonGScoalfiredunitswill reduce,butnoteliminatetheamountofbottledgenerationinthiszone. Phaseangleregulators(PARs)areinstalledontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionat LambtonTS,representingtwoofthefourinterconnectionswithMichigan,butarenotcurrently operationaluntilcompletionofagreementsbetweentheIESO,theMISO,HydroOneand InternationalTransmissionCompany.Theexpectedinservicedateisnotknownatthistime. TheoperationofthesePARsalongwiththePARontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionnear Windsorwillcontrolflowstoalimitedextent,andassistinthemanagementofsystem congestion. ThecapabilitytocontrolflowsontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionbetweenScottTSand BunceCreekisunavailable.ThePARinstalledatBunceCreekinMichiganhasfailedandis scheduledforreplacementbythebeginningofQ3in2010.

5.3.6

Northeast and Northwest Zones

ThetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagiTShasbeenexperiencingincreasedcongestiondue totheadditionofnewresourcesandlackoftransmissionreinforcements.Itisexpectedthat congestionwillincreaseevenfurtherwhenprojectscurrentlyunderconstructioninthearea becomeoperational. HydroOneisplanningtoimplementinthefourthquarterof2012someofthemodifications recommendedbytheIESOtotheexistingMississagigenerationrejectionschemethathasthe potentialtoalleviate,inthenearterm,theconstrainedgenerationwestofMississagi. TofurtherreducethecongestioninnorthernOntarioandimprovethetransfercapability,Hydro OneisplanningtoinstalladditionaldynamicreactivecompensationfacilitiesatPorcupineTS,in thefourthquarterof2010andKirklandLakeTS,inthefirstquarterof2011.Inpreparationfor additionalrenewablegenerationinnorthernOntario,HydroOneisplanningtoincreasethe northsouthtransfercapabilitybyinstallingseriescompensationatNobelSS,proposedtogoin serviceinthelastquarterof2010. During2010,extensiveworkonthetransmissioncircuitsintheKenoraFortFrancesareais scheduled.TheassociatedoutageswillreducetheOntarioManitobaandOntarioMinnesota interconnectiontransfercapacityandalsotheEastWesttransmissioninterfacecapability.The reductionoftheEastWestTransferEast(EWTE)limitisexpectedtocontributetotheincreased amountofbottledgenerationintheNorthwestzone. ManaginggridvoltagesintheNorthwesthasalwaysrequiredspecialattention;withthe significantlylowerdemands,itisincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptablevoltageprofile withoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply. Overthepastyearithasbecomemoredifficulttomanagevoltagesthroughoutthetransmission systeminnorthwesternOntario.Onseveraloccasionsnormaldispatchactionswereexhausted, andexceptionalvoltagecontrolmeasureswererequired,includingthetemporaryremovalofone ormoretransmissioncircuitsfromserviceduringlightloadorlowtransferconditionsto maintainvoltageswithinacceptableranges.Thisreducedthegridsabilitytowithstand

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 18

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

disturbancesandsubsequentlyunderminedthecustomerssupplyreliability.Additionalreactive compensationisrequiredforvoltagecontrolinthezone. TheIESOhascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,inaneffortto examinetheshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter.

5.3.7

Ontario 25 Hz System

The25HzsysteminnortheasternOntariowasdecommissionedduringthefirstquarterof2010. Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince. EndofSection

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 19

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 20

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

6.0 Operability Assessment

TheIESOmonitorsexistingandemergingoperabilityissuesthatcouldpotentiallyimpactsystem reliability.InMarch2010,unseasonablywarmtemperaturescontributedtolowerthanforecast minimumdemands.Thisresultedinisolatedsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)events,notably overtheEasterlongweekend. AforecastforSBGconditionsoverthenext18monthsispresentedbelow.Forecastminimum demandcontinuestotrendlowerthaninpreviousyears.Overthenext18months,theIESO expectstheriskofexperiencingSBGconditionswillbemostrelevantoverthesummerperiods. Figure6.1showsprojectedweeklyminimumdemandagainsttheexpectedlevelofbaseload generation.Baseloadgenerationassumptionshavebeenupdatedtoincludeexports,thelatest plannedoutageinformation,andinservicedatesforneworrefurbishedgeneration.The expectedcontributionfromselfschedulingandintermittentgenerationhasalsobeenupdatedto reflectthelatestdata.Outputfromcommissioningunitsisexplicitlyexcludedfromthisanalysis duetouncertaintyandhighlyvariablenatureofcommissioningschedules.
Figure 6.1 Minimum Demand and Baseload Generation

16,000 14,000 12,000

MW

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

08-May-11

21-Nov-10

Minimum Weekly Demand

Bas eload Generation

20-Nov-11

26-Sep-10

13-Feb-11

16-Jan-11

25-Sep-11

24-Oct-10

13-Mar-11

10-Apr-11

01-Aug-10

19-Dec-10

29-Aug-10

NotableeventsinvolvingOntariosinterconnectionsoccurredin2009,includinglengthyplanned outagesontheOntarioNewYorkinterfacethatsignificantlylimitedintertiecapacitytoboth NewYorkandMichigan.Atthesametime,anew1,250MWtietoQuebecfacilitatedincreased intertiecapacitytowardstheendoftheyear.Asaresultofthesedevelopments,andinlightof similarplannedoutagestotheOntarioNewYorkinterfacecurrentlybeingassessedfor

May 20, 2010

Public

28-Aug-11

23-Oct-11

06-Jun-10

05-Jun-11

03-Jul-11

04-Jul-10

31-Jul-11

Page 21

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

NovemberandDecember2010,the1,000MWexportassumptionthatwasusedinprevious Outlooksisbeingrevised. Goingforward,anominalexportassumptionof1,500MWwillbeappliedasadecrementto baseloadgenerationunderlimited,ornointerconnectionplannedoutages.Undermore significantinterconnectionplannedoutages 1 ,suchastheNewYorkPA301andPA302outages scheduledforNovemberandDecember2010,anexportassumptionof1,200MWwillbeapplied toreflectthereducedexportcapabilityassociatedwiththeseplannedoutages.Theserevisednet exportassumptionswerederivedfromanexaminationofhistoricalnetexportdataduring periodsoflowOntariodemandfrom2008and2009,atvariouslevelsofaggregateexport capabilityandarealsoreflectiveofexternalmarketsabilitytoabsorbenergyatthattime.In recognitionofchangingmarketandsurplusbaseloadconditions,andtheirassociatedimpacton netexportvolumes,theIESOintendstoreviewandreviseasrequiredthenetexport assumptionsonanannualbasis. EndofSection

The 1,200 MW export assumption will be applied when forecast planned outages are expected to limit Ontarios aggregate export capacity to between 1,400MW and 2,600 MW. For forecast planned outages that further limit export capacity to below 1,400 MW, an export assumption value of 700 MW will be used. See Appendix C of the 18-Month Outlook Tables for forecast reduction to major transmission interface limits, including interconnection interfaces.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 22

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

7.0 Historical Review

Thissectionprovidesareviewofpastpowersystemoperation,includingthemostrecentmonths ofoperation,toidentifynoteworthyobservations,emergingproblemsandvariationsfrom forecast.

7.1 Weather and Demand Historical Review

SincethelastforecasttheactualdemandandweatherdataforFebruary,MarchandAprilhas beenrecorded.Overall,theweatherexperiencedoverthosethreemonthshasbeenmilderthan normal. Forthefirstfourmonthsof2010actualenergydemandhasbeen2.7%lowerthantheprevious year.Onaweathercorrectedbasisenergydemandhasgrownby0.5%asthefirstfourmonthsof 2010weremilderthannormal.For2010,economicfactorscontinuetoimpactdemand.Thishas beenevidencedinthewholesalecustomersconsumption,whichhasdropped2.6%comparedto thefirstfourmonthsof2009.

7.2 Hourly Resource Contributions at Time of Weekday Peak

Thefiguresfrom7.2.1to7.2.4showthecontributionsmadebywindgenerators,hydro generators,imports,andnetinterchangeintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak.Theperiod fromApril1,2009toMarch23,2010wasanalyzed.Holidaydatawasnotconsideredinthe analysissincehydropeakinggenerationandinterchangedataduringthistimeframeisnot typicaloftimeperiodswhenOntariossupplyadequacymaybechallenged. Figure7.2.1indicatestheamountofwindcontributiontothewholesalemarketatthetimeof weekdaypeak,comparedtotheforecastcontributions.Theforecastmethodologytakesinto accountseasonalvariancesinwindpatterns,amongotherfactors.Windgenerationcontinuedto increasefromthepreviousyearhoweverthatcanbedirectlyattributedtotheincreasein installedcapacitywhichisexpectedtofurtherincreasewithwindgenerationprocuredunderthe RESIIIandFITprograms.Thereductionofwindproductionoverthesummermonthsis consistentwithitsforecast,asthosemonthsoftenhavereducedwindspeeds. Figure7.2.2indicatesthehydroelectriccontributionstoenergyandoperatingreservemarketsat thetimeofweekdaypeak,excludingweekendsandholidays,comparedtotheforecasted contributions.Theforecastedmonthlymedianconsistsofthemediancontributionof hydroelectricenergyatthetimeofweekdaypeaksince2002.Thehydroelectricproductionatthe hourofweekdaypeakformostofthesummermonths(exceptJuly)of2009washigherthan forecast.Heavysnowfallduringthewintermonthsof2008andheavyrainfallduringthespring of2009providedhydroelectricgenerationwithsignificantamountsoffuelforproductionovera periodwhenhydroproductionusuallydecreases.MildertemperaturesinNovembercausedthe usualincreaseinhydroproduction,associatedwithhighwinterdemand,tooccurlaterinthe yearthanexpected.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 23

IESO_REP_0608v1.0 Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contributions at the Time of Weekday Peak

1,200

18-Month Outlook

Commercially Operable Capacity

1,000

Actual Hourly Contribution Forecast Monthly Median

800

MW

600

Actual Monthly Median

400

200

0
Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Date

Note:Commerciallyoperablecapacitydoesnotincludecommissioningunits.Thereforeactual hourlycontributionmayexceedcommercialcapability.
Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributions (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of Weekday Peak
7,000

Forecast Monthly Median

6,500

6,000

MW Contribution

5,500

Actual Monthly Median

5,000

4,500

Actual Hourly Contribution

4,000
Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Date

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 24

IESO_REP_0608v1.0

18-Month Outlook

Figure7.2.3showsimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak.ThisyearOntario experiencedasignificantreductionindemand.Lowerdemandsandsurplusconditionscreated lowerpricesinOntariowhichmadeimportingintotheprovincelessattractivewhichiswhy importswerelowerthanprevioushistoricvalues.

Figure 7.2.3 Imports into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak
3,000

Actual Hourly Imports

2,500

Actual Monthly Median

2,000

1,500

MW
1,000 500

0
Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Date

Figure7.2.4showstheamountofnetimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak, excludingweekendsandholidays.NetInterchangeisthedifferencebetweentotalimportsinto OntarioandtotalexportsoutofOntario.Ontariowas,onaverage,anetexporterfortheentire studyperiod.Asstatedabove,thedriverswhichinfluencedlowerimportsalsoincentgreater tradeoutoftheprovince.Undersurplusbaseloadgenerationconditions,themarketsinfluence onexportingbecomesasignificantmitigatingfactor.UnfortunatelywhenOntariois experiencingsurplus,ourneighboursareusuallyalsoexperiencingasurpluscondition,making exportingdifficult.

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 25

IESO_REP_0608v1.0 Figure 7.2.4 Net Interchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak

18-Month Outlook

1,500

1,000

Actual Hourly Net Imports

Actual Monthly Median

500

-500

MW

-1,000

-1,500

-2,000

-2,500

Negative value indicates when Ontario was a net exporter

-3,000
Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Date

7.3 Report on Initiatives

SinceNovember2009,theIESOsresourceschedulingintheneartermtimeframehasbeenbased ontheaverage,ratherthanthepeak,demandforecastforallhourswheredemanddoesnot typicallychangedramatically.Thischangeinmethodologyisanattempttoassistinreducing SBGthroughmoreefficientresourcecommitments. Centralizedwindforecastingisaninitiativedesignedtoallowforbetterforecastingofwind productiontoensureamoreaccurateunitcommitmentoccurs.Pilotimplementationisexpected tocommencebytheendof2010.

7.4 Variation from Previous Year

In2009Ontarioexperiencedasignificantincreaseininstancesofsurplusbaseloadgeneration conditions.Thetwomajorfactorsthatcontributedtothisvariationare: Higherhydroelectricproductionthanthepreviousyearasa resultofheavysnowfallandrainfall Lowerdemandsduetomoderatesummertemperaturesaswell astheeconomicdeclinesofmanyindustrialloads EndofDocument

May 20, 2010

Public

Page 26