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P r o b a b i l i t y | 1

PROBABILITY

Introduction
y Probability is a mathematical concept that is used to measure the certainty and
uncertainty of the occurrence or non-occurrence of any statistical phenomenon or
happening.
y A measure of chance
y An experiment is a situation involving chance or probability that leads to results
called outcomes
y A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is known
y An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment
y An outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment

Approaches to Assigning Probabilities
1) A Posteriori Probability
y The a posteriori probability is defined as the number of times the event occurs
divided by the number of times the experiment is repeated
y subjective
y The formula for a posteriori probability
PA
numbei of times the vent occuis
numbei of times the expeiiment was iepeateu

2) A Priori Probability
y The a priori probability is defined as the number of sample in an event say,
(n(A) divided by the number of sample points in the sample space S say, N(S)
y theoretical
y The formula for a priori probability
PA
numbei of times the vent occuis
numbei of times the expeiiment was iepeateu



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Basic Probability Laws
Rule 1
The probability of any event is a number between 0 and 1 inclusive, where 0
represents an impossible event and 1 represents a certain sure event.
PA
Rule 2
The probability of the entire sample space is 1
PS
Rule 3
The probability of the complement of an event is equal to one minus the
probability of the event
PE

PE
Rule 4
If A and B are mutually exclusive events defined on the sample space, the
probability of either A or B or both will happen is
PA B PA PB
Rule 5
If A and B are two events defined on sample space but are not mutually
exclusive, then the probability of either A or B or both will happen is
PA B PA PB PA B









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COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Permutations
y A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects, with regard to
the order of the arrangement. This means that XYZ is considered a different
permutation than ZYX.
y The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by
n
P
r
.
nPi
n
n i


Example 1
How many different ways can you arrange the letters X, Y, and Z?
Solution: n = 3 ; r = 3
nPi




Example 2
In horse racing, a trifecta is a type of bet. To win a trifecta bet, you need to specify the
horses that finish in the top three spots in the exact order in which they finish. If eight
horses enter the race, how many different ways can they finish in the top three spots?
Solution: n = 8 ; r = 3
nPi




Example 3
Find the number of 7-letter permutation from the letters of the word FORMULA.
Solution: n = 7 ; r = 7
nPi




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Example 4
If a school has lockers with 50 numbers on each combination lock, how many possible
combinations using three numbers are there?
Solution: n = 50 ; r = 3
nPi




Example 5
How many ways can first and second place be awarded to 10 people?
Solution: n = 10 ; r = 2
nPi





Combinations
y A combination is a selection of all or part of a set of objects, without regard to the
order in which they were selected. (This means that XYZ is considered the same
combination as ZYX.)
y The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by
n
C
r

nCi
nPi
i


Example 1
How many different ways can you select 2 letters from the set of letters: X, Y, and Z?
Solution: n = 3 ; r = 2
nCi




Example 2
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Five-card stud is a poker game, in which a player is dealt 5 cards from an ordinary deck
of 52 playing cards. How many distinct poker hands could be dealt?
Solution: n = 52 ; r = 5
nCi



Example 3
Susie is going to order 3 desserts from the cafeteria. From a menu of 10 choices, how
many combinations of desserts are possible?
Solution: n = 10 ; r = 3
nCi



Example 4
For a study, 4 people are chosen at random from a group of 15 people. How many ways
can this be done?
Solution: n = 15 ; r = 4
nCi



Example 5
Five students are competing in the Olympic sport of underwater basket weaving. At the
end of the game, how many different combinations of gold, silver, and bronze
competitors are possible?
Solution: n = 5 ; r = 3
nCi



SAMPLE SPACES AND RANDOM VARIABLES
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Sample Spaces
y The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that
experiment.

Example 1
Tossing a Coin
What is the probability of each outcome when a dime is tossed?
Outcomes: {head, tail}
Probabilities:
PBeau


PTail



Example 2
Spinner
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. What is the
probability of landing on each color after spinning this spinner?
Outcome: {yellow, blue, green, red}
Probabilities:
Pyellow


Pblue


Pgieen


Pieu



Example 3
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Rolling a die
What is the probability of each outcome when a single 6-sided die is rolled?
Outcomes: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probabilities:
P



Example 4
Marbles
A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is
chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability of each outcome?
Outcome: {red, green, blue, yellow}
Probabilities:
Pyellow


Pblue


Pgieen


Pieu


Example 5
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Drawing a Card
What is the sample space for choosing a single card at random from a deck of 52
playing cards is shown below?

The probability of each outcome of this experiment is
P


The sum of the probabilities of the distinct outcomes within this sample space is













ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY
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Addition Rules for Probability
y To find the probability of event A or B, we must first determine whether the
events are mutually exclusive or non-mutually exclusive. Then we can apply the
appropriate Addition Rule
y Addition Rule 1:
When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will
occur is the sum of the probability of each event
PA oi B PA PB
y Addition Rule 2:
When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive, there is some overlap
between these events. The probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the
probability of each event, minus the probability of the overlap
PA oi B PA PB PA anu B

Example 1
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
Probabilities:
P


Outcome:
P





Example 2
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A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red. What is the
probability of landing on red or blue after spinning this spinner?
Probabilities:
Pieu



Pblue


Outcome:
Pieu blue



Example 3
A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is
chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability that it is yellow or green?
Probabilities:
Pyellow



Pgieen



Outcome:
Pyellowgieen





Example 4
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A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability of choosing a king or a club?
Probabilities:
Pclub


Pclub


Pking of clubs


Outcome:
Pking club



Example 5
In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit test, 4 boys and
5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from the class, what is the
probability of choosing a girl or an A student?
Probabilities:
Pgiil


PA


Pgiil anu A


Outcome:
Pgiil A




CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
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Classical probability
y The classical probability is defined as the ratio of the number of favorable
outcome of the event to the total number of events.
y In sequence of this ratio to be valid, each of the outcomes must be equally likely.
Function is gained from real occurrences in long-run occurrence and
experimentation.
PA
Total numbei of outcomes favoiable to A
Total numbei of possible outcome uatas

nA
ns


Example 1
One day twenty files were presented to an income tax manager for removal. Five files
contained bogus entry. All the files were in detail mixed in there was no indication about
bogus files. What is the probability that 1 file with bogus entry is chosen.
Solution: n(S) = 20 ; n(A) = 5
PA



Example 2
A die is thrown. To calculate probability that the face on the die is greatest, major,
compound of 3 and compound of 7
Solution:
There are 6 possible outcomes when a die is thrown. We calculate that all
the 6 faces are equally possible outcomes.
The sample space is S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) =6,

Let A be the event the face is greatest
A = {6} ; n (A) = 1
PA



Let B be the event that the face is greatest.
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B = {2, 3, 5} ; n (B) = 3
PB



Let C be the event that the face is greatest.
C = {3, 6} ; n (C) = 2
PB



Let D be the event that the face is greatest
D = pi ; n (D) = 0
PB



Example 3
The students marks are 25,28,36,39,42. What is the probability for the following
outcomes?
i) Select the numbers are below 30.
ii) Select the numbers between 27 and 40.
Solution:
i) n(S) = 5 ; n(A) = {25,28} = 2
PA



ii) n(S) = 5 ; n(B) = {27, and 40} = 3
PA




Example 4
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Select the letters at random from U to Z. What is the probability for the following
outcomes? (U,V,W,X,Y,Z.)
i)Find the probability that the letter is vowel
ii)Find is the probability that the letter is W.
Solution:
i) n(S) = 6 ; n(A) = {U} = 1
PA


ii) n(S) = 6 ; n(B) = {W} = 1
PA



Example 5
What is the probability for select the letter O from the word HOMEWORK?
Solution: n(S) = 8 ; n(A) = 2
PA













EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
P r o b a b i l i t y | 15

Empirical Probability
y Probabilities can be computed for situations that do not use sample space. In
that case frequency distributions are used and the probability is called Empirical
probability.
y Formula for empirical probability
PE
Fiequency of E
Sum of Fiequency

S
N


Example 1
Usi ng tabl e, what i s the probabi l i ty that a person 20 years ol d wi l l l i ve to
be 50 years ol d?
Age Number of People
5 98,362
10 97,180
15 96,227
20 95,148
25 93,920
30 92,461
35 90,655
40 88,334
45 85,255
50 81,090
55 75,419
60 67,777
65 57,778
70 45,455
75 31,598
80 18,177
85 7,822
90 2,154

Solution: S = 81,090 ; N = 95,148
PE



Example 2
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Calculate the probability to pick a junior from given distribution
Freshmen 4
Sophomore 8
Juniors 7
Seniors 7
Total 25

Solution: S = 6 ; N = 25
PIunioi



Example 3
How many times would a die be expected to land with a 5 or 6 showing in 20
trials?
Solution
The probability of a 5 or 6 showing is P =


The relative frequency is approximately equal to the probability is P p
Therefore, since P = S/N
Where: P =

; N = 20 ; S = ?
then rearranging and substituting, we find that
S = NP
= 20 x


= 6.67



Example 4
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In a dart game, a player hit the bull's eye 3 times out of 25 trials. What is the
statistical probability that he will hit the bull's eye on the next throw?
Solution: S = 3 ; N = 25
PE


Example 5
In a shooting game Ms. Rita shoots the balls 5 times out of 20 trials. Find the empirical
probability of the shooting event.
Solution: S = 5 ; N = 20
PE



















CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
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Conditional Probability
y The conditional of probability of one event given the other is equal to the joint
probability of the two events divided by the probability of the conditional event.
y The conditional probability of an event A in relationship to an event B is the
probability that event A occurs given that event B has already occurred. The
notation for conditional probability is P(A|B), read as the probability of A given B.
y The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the
probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The
notation for conditional probability is P(B|A), read as the probability of B given A.
PBA
PA anu B
PA
oi PAB
PB anu A
PB


Example 1
A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42%
of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also
passed the second test?
Solution:
PSeconuFiist
PFiist anu Seconu
PFiist




Example 2
A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without replacement.
The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white marble is 0.34, and the
probability of selecting a black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of
selecting a white marble on the second draw, given that the first marble drawn was
black?
Solution:
PWhiteBlack
PBlack anu White
PBlack





Example 3
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The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5
school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that
a student is absent given that today is Friday?
Solution:
PAbsentFiiuay
PFiiuay anu Absent
PFiiuay




Example 4
At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Math and Spanish is
0.087. The probability that a student takes Math is 0.68. What is the probability that a
student takes Spanish given that the student is taking Math?
Solution:
PSpanishNath
PNath anu Spanish
PNath




Example 5
The probability that a student is accepted in college and has a house is 0.48. Suppose
the probability that a student is accepted is 0.8. What is the probability that has a house
given that he is accepted in the college?
Solution:
PBouseAccepteu
PAccepteu anu Bouse
PAccepteu

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