A d v ic e Pa p er (09-09)

JUNE 2009

Supplementary Advice Relating to the 3rd Stage Debate in the Scottish Parliament on the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill
1 The Royal Society of Edinburgh has recently published advice papers relating to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change (RSE Advice papers: Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, February 2009; Preparing for a Changing Climate, June 2009). In view of the impending debate in the Scottish Parliament on the Climate Change Bill, some of the principal conclusions of those papers are summarised below. This generation faces an unprecedented environmental challenge which it must address and on which its governments must show leadership. The global response to this challenge has so far been ineffectual. Notwithstanding many good intentions, the rate of emissions of greenhouse gases from human sources has almost doubled since the year 2000, which is 35% greater than most climate change models have so far allowed for. This makes it almost certain that the CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will rise above the 450 ppm level regarded as a threshold for dangerous climate change. In the face of such trends and scientific uncertainties about the behaviour of a de-stabilised climate, urgent action is vital.This should be both to adapt to change that may now be inevitable as a consequence of past emissions and to mitigate extreme future change by acting urgently to reduce future emissions. The Royal Society of Edinburgh, therefore, welcomes the processes proposed in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, but there are several issues that the Society believes seriously undermine its potential to achieve its objectives. to replace the existing 2030 target.We note that this target is initially set at 34%, but given the expected increase in energy contributions from renewable sources, and what we now know about the speed of climate change, we believe that this could be set at an even higher level, provided that other actions to reduce emissions and demand are also taken.

The current recession offers two dangers. Firstly emissions reductions stemming from the reduction in economic activity could lull us into a misleading sense that steps to curtail emissions are being successful. Secondly, as we climb out of recession, there is a danger that the current trend of emissions might re-establish itself. It is important to put strategies in place now to ensure that this does not occur. A Scottish Committee on Climate Change should be established so that short-term targets set by Government are based on the definition of a long-term emissions trajectory and because the appropriate policy in Scotland may need to vary from the more general policy across the UK.This should be an independent body that is advisory to Government, that is able to draw upon the best available scientific and technical capabilities in climate science, energy technology, economics, business and social science. We welcome the commissioning of the review of the process of producing the annual disaggregated greenhouse gas inventories by the UK Government and Devolved Administrations. Scottish data typically is made available twenty months after the year in question. Unless this can be improved, annual setting of targets will be flawed and the assessment of the trajectory of change will be uncertain. The Scottish Governments Climate Change Delivery Plan is to be welcomed, although there is still someway to go in embedding this commitment across all sectors and practical measures are needed now to make a substantive contribution to more ambitious targets between 2010 and 20201.

The endpoint target of an 80% reduction by 2050 is an irrelevance unless there are appropriate intervening milestones.The key target must be to minimise the aggregate emissions between now and 2050; We believe that it would be appropriate to target strong reductions as early as possible. We welcome the Stage Two amendment that introduced a new 2020 interim target in the Bill

1 1st Annual Report of Council of Economic Advisers (Dec 2008), Section:Achieving 2011 Emission Targets http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/12/04092147/0

A d v ic e Pa p er
However, in addition to the Delivery Plan, a specific duty should be placed on Scottish Ministers within the Bill to create a strategy designed to achieve the targets as set out in the Bill. Action Plans will need to be developed by the Scottish Government on a sector-by-sector basis and in an integrated fashion to ensure convergence of purpose. In the short term, there should be increased focus on those immediate and cost-effective ways of reducing emissions, such as energy efficiency. Integrating mitigation and adaptation measures 4 In the face of trends of rising emission and scientific uncertainties about the behaviour of a de-stabilised climate, urgent action is vital.This should be both to adapt to change that may now be inevitable as a consequence of past emissions and to mitigate extreme future change by acting urgently to reduce future emissions. Many of the actions that are required, for example changes in the use of transport and energy, are both means of mitigating change and adapting to changing circumstances. Local micro-renewables provide substitution for fossil fuels, but also increase the resilience of local energy supplies in case centralised sources are disrupted by climate change events. It is vital therefore that mitigation and adaptation strategies are completely integrated. Infrastructure 5 Much of the national infrastructure of railways, roads, bridges, sewers, energy plants, electricity transmission and waterworks installed in the 19th and early 20th century was robust and resilient, not only satisfying the needs of contemporary society, but also providing the basis for the subsequent growth of population and economy.Adapting to climate change and mitigating its long-term impacts will require a massive shift in the configuration and operation of this infrastructure. The direct impacts of climate change on these systems, and particularly the consequences of the changes that will be necessary if we are to reach the carbon emissions targets of an 80% reduction by 2050, have profound implications for their operation. Long term resilience and the substantial investment in it is required.This must be addressed as a matter of urgency. The central issue is to drive towards a low-carbon economy as quickly as possible. Such an approach will be seen as coherent and effective in meeting the need for mitigation and adaptation. Secondary impacts on Scotland 6 It is important to recognise that in addition to the primary effects of climate change in Scotland, there will also be secondary effects on Scotland resulting from impacts elsewhere and the attempts by other countries to adapt to them. Severe climatic shifts elsewhere, such as, for example, the failure of the Asian monsoon or dramatic reduction in water availability in sub-tropical zones, could have severe secondary effects on Scotland.They could lead to dramatic changes in the global availability of food, disruption of economic systems and patterns of trade, conflict over resources, major population movements and immigration pressure and increased risk from spread of tropical diseases of humans, plants and animals. It is important that these secondary effects begin to be considered.

(09-09)

Deliberative public engagement 7 The Scottish Environmental Attitudes and Behaviours Survey 2008 (SEABS08) shows that about 50% of citizens know little or nothing about climate change and about one third distance themselves from any responsibility for it.The capacity of government to plan and implement major changes depends fundamentally on the acceptance by citizens that the issue is important and the policy response is appropriate.This is particularly so where there are large uncertainties about future changes, or where long timescales are involved.Two complementary responses are required: awareness of the issues and deliberative public engagement about appropriate responses: Stimulating awareness needs political leadership at national and local levels. Government must be honest about the serious threats posed by climate change and the difficult decisions that will be needed if society is to adapt to prospective changes and mitigate longer term threats. Public engagement is not a matter of persuading the public about the need to adopt pre-determined policies, but to engage with citizens in a deliberative dialogue to determine what the best policies might be. Such dialogue processes are overdue for adoption in Scotland if the aspirations at the time of devolution for stronger development of civic society in Scotland are to be realized. Government needs to mobilise bodies within civic society, universities and schools to help achieve this.
While these issues are reflected in the Scottish Governments recent Delivery Plan, their implications need to be integrated fully into the Plans proposals for abatement, with practical references to changing electricity and head demand, transport, land use and waste.

Additional Information and References

In responding to this consultation the Society would like to draw attention to the following Royal Society of Edinburgh responses which are of relevance to this subject: The Climate Change (Scotland) Bill: a response to the Scottish Parliaments Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change Committee (February 2009)

Any enquiries about this submission and others should be addressed to the RSEs Consultations Officer, MrWilliam Hardie (Email: evidenceadvice@royalsoced.org.uk)

Responses are published on the RSE website (www.royalsoced.org.uk).

Advice paper (Royal Society of Edinburgh) ISSN 2040-2694

The Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) is Scotlands National Academy. It is an independent body with a multidisciplinary fellowship of men and women of international standing which makes it uniquely placed to offer informed, independent comment on matters of national interest. The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland's National Academy, is Scottish Charity No. SC000470