Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
ONGC
BUY
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
1QFY12
1QFY11
% chg (yoy)
4QFY11
% chg (qoq)
16,199
13,666
18.5
16,108
0.6
9,470
8,193
15.6
7,972
18.8
58.5
60.0
(149)bp
49.5
897bp
4,095
3,661
11.8
2,791
46.7
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
Investment Period
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
For 1QFY2012, ONGCs top line increased by 18.5% yoy despite increased
subsidy burden by 118.4% yoy. EBITDA increased by 15.6% yoy, while PAT
increased by 11.8% yoy. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
12 Months
Stock Info
Operating performance broadly in-line with our expectations: ONGCs top line
for the quarter grew by 18.5% yoy to `16,199cr, in-line with our estimate of
`16,191cr. Despite gross realisation of US$121.3/bbl (US$80.8/bbl), net
realisation stood at US$48.8/bbl (US$48.0/bbl) on account of higher subsidy
burden. The company shared a subsidy burden of `12,046cr in 1QFY2012 vs.
`5,516cr of subsidy shared in 1QFY2011. The companys staff cost during the
quarter increased by 11.1% yoy to `309cr, whereas statutory levies and other
operating expenditure increased by 30.1% yoy and 15.4% yoy to `3,731cr and
`2,813cr, respectively. EBITDA margin contracted by 149bp yoy to 58.5%, while
EBITDA registered a 15.6% yoy increase to `9,470cr. Depreciation, depletion and
amortisation (DD&A) cost was higher by 32.4% yoy to `4,123cr. Other income
increased by 78.5% yoy to `727cr. ONGCs tax rate during the quarter was
slightly lower on a yoy basis at 32.5% (33.2%). Thus, net profit increased by
11.8% yoy to `4,095cr, slightly above our estimate of `3,904cr.
`269
`326
229,843
0.7
368/227
342539
BSE Sensex
18,197
Nifty
5,482
Reuters Code
ONGC.BO
Bloomberg Code
ONGC@IN
74.1
7.4
4.8
13.7
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
(5.2)
1.1
31.9
(12.9) (13.4)
9.6
ONGC
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
FY2013E
101,755
117,611
126,535
140,194
(2.7)
15.6
7.6
10.8
19,404
22,456
27,342
29,414
% chg
(2.0)
15.7
21.8
7.6
OPM (%)
44.2
41.2
44.2
42.7
EPS (`)
22.7
26.2
32.0
34.4
P/E (x)
11.9
10.2
8.4
7.8
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.5
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
20.0
20.4
21.3
19.9
RoCE (%)
19.9
19.1
21.1
20.0
EV/Sales (x)
2.1
1.7
1.6
1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.3
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821
bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
1QFY2012
1QFY2011
% chg (yoy)
4QFY2011
% chg (qoq)
FY2011
FY2010
% chg (yoy)
16,199
13,666
18.5
16,108
0.6
69,177
61,983
11.6
6,729
5,472
23.0
8,136
(17.3)
28,158
24,491
15.0
EBITDA
9,470
8,193
15.6
7,972
18.8
41,019
37,491
9.4
58.5
60.0
59.3
60.5
49.5
727
407
78.5
586
24.2
2,568
2,220
15.7
4,122
3,114
32.4
4,788
(13.9)
15,943
14,659
8.8
45.3
16
(74.9)
25
69
(63.4)
6,070
5,483
10.7
3,754
61.7
27,619
24,984
10.5
37.5
40.1
39.9
40.3
Total Tax
1,976
1,822
8,695
8,216
% of PBT
32.5
33.2
31.5
32.9
4,095
3,661
18,924
16,768
4,095
3,661
18,924
16,768
25.3
26.8
27.4
27.1
PBT
PBT Margin (%)
PAT
Exceptional items
Adj. PAT
PAT Margin (%)
23.3
8.4
963
105.1
25.7
11.8
2,791
46.7
11.8
2,791
46.7
17.3
5.8
12.9
12.9
1QFY2012
1QFY2011
% chg (yoy)
4QFY2011
% chg (yoy)
Offshore E&P
11,798
10,906
8.2
12,830
(8.0)
52,397
46,865
11.8
Onshore E&P
4,673
2,962
57.8
3,436
36.0
17,090
15,336
11.4
16,471
13,868
18.8
16,267
1.3
69,487
62,201
11.7
4,867
4,836
0.6
4,445
9.5
23,675
19,564
21.0
EBIT (%)
41.2
44.3
45.2
41.7
Onshore E&P
691
320
115.7
(812)
(185.1)
2,468
4,258
EBIT (%)
14.8
10.8
(23.6)
14.4
27.8
5,558
5,157
26,143
23,822
33.7
37.2
37.6
38.3
45.3
25
69
(63.4)
Segment revenue
Unallocated
Total revenue
EBIT
Offshore E&P
Unallocated
Total EBIT
EBIT (%)
Less: Interest payment
Less: Other unallocable exp. net of inc.
PBT before extraordinary items
Extraordinary gain
PBT
34.6
7.8
3,633
53.0
22.3
16
(74.9)
(42.0)
9.7
(517)
(329)
56.9
(137)
277.1
(1,501)
(1,231)
21.9
6,070
5,483
10.7
3,754
61.7
27,619
24,984
10.5
6,070
5,483
27,619
24,984
10.7
3,754
61.7
10.5
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
16,199
16,191
0.0
9,470
8,646
9.5
58.5
53.4
506bp
4,095
3,904
4.9
Net crude realisation at US$48.8/bbl: ONGCs top line for the quarter grew by 18.5%
yoy to `16,199cr, in-line with our estimate of `16,191cr. Despite gross realisation of
US$121.3/bbl (US$80.8/bbl), net realisation stood at US$48.8/bbl (US$48.0/bbl) because
of higher subsidy burden. ONGC shared a subsidy burden of `12,046cr in 1QFY2012 vs.
`5,516cr of subsidy shared in 1QFY2011. On a standalone basis, crude oil production
stood at 5.9mn tonnes and natural gas production stood at 5.6bcm during 1QFY2012.
34.2
21,000
18,000
20.2
12,000
13.2
(%)
(` cr)
15,000
9,000
0.7
6,000
(8.7)
3,000
4QFY10
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
18.7 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
EBITDA increases by 15.6% yoy: The companys staff cost during the quarter
increased by 11.1% yoy to `309cr, whereas statutory levies and other operating
expenditure increased by 30.1% yoy and 15.4% yoy to `3,731cr and `2,813cr,
respectively. EBITDA margin contracted by 149bp yoy to 58.5%, while EBITDA
registered a 15.6% yoy increase to `9,470cr.
16,000
12,000
(` cr)
10,000
66.0
65.0
63.0
61.4
58.9
59.3
8,000
58.5
60.0
57.0
(%)
14,000
54.0
6,000
49.5
4,000
51.0
48.0
2,000
45.0
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
Operating Profit
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
PAT dips by 11.8% yoy: During the quarter, DD&A cost was higher by 32.4% yoy
to `4,123cr. Other income increased by 78.5% yoy to `727cr. ONGCs tax rate
during the quarter was slightly lower on a yoy basis at 32.5% (33.2%). Thus, net
profit increased by 11.8% yoy to `4,095cr, slightly above our estimate of `3,904cr.
120.0
100.0
71.1
80.0
5,000
60.0
(%)
(` cr)
6,000
140.0
132.0
4,000
40.0
3,000
11.8
5.9
2,000
1,000
(26.1)
(24.5)
20.0
(20.0)
(40.0)
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
PAT
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Investment arguments
Volumes expected to boost valuations: ONGCs extant fields are matured and,
thus, there is a decline in production from these fields. However, management
expects incremental oil production from marginal fields (including D1 extension,
B193 cluster, B22 clusters, North Tapti, WO series, B46 cluster, cluster 7, and
B193 as well as B series), which will help arrest the decline in crude production.
As far as gas is concerned, North Tapti, B193 and 28 cluster, B22 cluster WO
series cluster, B46 cluster, cluster 7 and B series would be adding to the companys
production.
FY2012E
FY2013E
23.3
23.5
62.0
63.0
Bloomberg Consensus
Variation (%)
FY2012E
32.0
32.5
(1.7)
FY2013E
34.4
35.5
(3.2)
CMP
TP
Reco.
(`)
(`)
RIL
828
1,180
Buy
ONGC
269
326
Buy
Cairn India
308
Neutral
GAIL
462
508
Buy
Mcap
Upside
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
(` cr)
(%)
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
270,959
43
12.2
10.4
1.4
1.3
7.3
5.7
13.6
14.1
11.2
12.7
229,843
21
8.4
7.8
1.7
1.5
3.7
3.3
21.3
19.9
21.1
20.0
58,655
6.7
5.6
1.2
1.0
4.3
3.0
19.6
19.3
23.2
23.6
58,571
10
14.4
13.0
2.6
2.3
8.8
7.7
19.6
18.7
22.3
21.7
FY12E
RoCE (%)
600
500
400
300
200
100
Share price
7x
10x
13x
16x
Jul-11
Dec-10
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
Jan-08
Jun-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
19x
(%)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
Prem/Disc to Sensex
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
(60)
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
8.1
(2.7)
15.6
7.6
10.8
Total Expenditure
55,527
61,364
56,805
69,174
70,616
80,308
25,070
28,975
25,339
31,251
30,308
34,467
18,419
17,678
16,321
19,685
19,090
21,710
1,328
1,162
1,407
1,716
1,926
2,191
Other
10,710
13,549
13,738
16,523
19,292
21,939
EBITDA
41,255
43,225
44,949
48,436
55,919
59,886
14.0
4.8
4.0
7.8
15.4
7.1
Personnel
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
42.6
41.3
44.2
41.2
44.2
42.7
Depreciation& Amortisation
13,888
15,430
18,719
20,628
21,185
22,671
EBIT
27,367
27,794
26,230
27,808
34,733
37,215
% chg
13.0
1.6
(5.6)
6.0
24.9
7.1
(% of Net Sales)
28.3
26.6
25.8
23.6
27.4
26.5
894
1,774
1,102
437
600
680
4,541
5,072
5,273
6,946
7,641
8,405
14.6
16.3
17.3
20.2
18.3
18.7
31,014
31,093
30,401
34,316
41,774
44,940
% chg
8.6
0.3
(2.2)
12.9
21.7
7.6
93
(11)
(40)
(66)
PBT (reported)
30,921
31,169
30,441
34,316
41,774
44,940
Tax
10,700
11,009
10,714
11,491
13,988
15,048
34.6
35.3
35.2
33.5
33.5
33.5
20,221
20,160
19,728
22,825
27,786
29,891
2.1
9.9
7.8
3.0
9.5
9.8
Recurring PBT
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)
(% of PBT)
PAT (reported)
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
Less: Minority interest (MI)
351
375
332
372
453
487
19,872
19,795
19,404
22,456
27,342
29,414
ADJ. PAT
19,872
19,861
19,404
22,456
27,342
29,414
% chg
FY08
8.9
(0.1)
(2.3)
15.7
21.8
7.6
(% of Net Sales)
20.5
19.0
19.1
19.1
21.6
21.0
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
32.0
34.4
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
32.0
34.4
% chg
11.8
(0.4)
(2.0)
15.7
21.8
7.6
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
2,139
2,139
2,139
4,278
4,278
4,278
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus
75,948
90,085
Shareholders Funds
78,087
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Liability for abandonment cost
Total Liabilities
1,145
1,411
2,012
2,456
2,933
944
6,559
6,267
8,371
9,427
10,862
8,738
9,223
10,291
8,152
8,152
8,152
12,932
17,145
17,459
17,459
17,459
17,459
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
55,668
63,794
75,543
83,017
93,832 102,099
Capital Work-in-Progress
14,423
24,758
25,616
27,241
28,194
29,283
Goodwill
2,578
11,404
9,539
9,539
9,539
9,539
Investments
4,482
3,480
5,159
5,159
5,159
5,159
Current Assets
47,534
50,715
50,566
61,540
71,689
85,275
Cash
25,056
22,596
22,384
32,713
42,359
55,600
7,068
13,264
12,057
12,057
12,057
12,057
Other
15,411
14,855
16,125
16,770
17,274
17,619
Current liabilities
23,513
28,239
30,198
32,613
34,244
35,271
24,022
22,476
20,369
28,926
37,445
50,004
674
651
841
841
841
841
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
31,014
31,093
30,441
34,316
41,774
44,940
9,078
8,779
8,863
20,628
21,185
22,671
(180)
(264)
2,415
2,355
(719)
1,771
1,128
682
(2,903)
(3,238)
(2,300)
(6,946)
(7,641)
(8,405)
Depreciation
(Incr)/ Decr in Misc Exp
Change in Working Capital
Less: Other income
Direct taxes paid
Cash Flow from Operations
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv.
Other income
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of Equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
Others
Cash Flow from Financing
28,915
28,746
38,278
42,458
44,839
902
(2,249)
(1)
(1,951)
532
2,078
3,365
2,673
6,946
7,641
8,405
287
(598)
4,968
(304)
2,104
1,056
1,435
(7,822)
(8,103)
(8,078)
(7,272)
(8,556)
(9,411)
(285)
(8,748)
(92)
(8,538) (11,883)
(8,187)
(5,168)
(7,500)
(7,976)
4,380
(2,460)
(211)
10,329
9,646
13,241
20,676
25,056
22,596
22,384
32,713
42,359
25,056
22,596
22,384
32,713
42,359
55,600
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(10,508) (10,244)
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY08
FY09
FY10 FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
11.6
11.6
11.9
10.2
8.4
7.8
P/CEPS
6.8
6.5
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.4
P/BV
2.9
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.7
EV/Sales
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.7
1.6
1.3
EV/EBITDA
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.3
EV/Total Assets
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
EPS (Basic)
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
32.0
34.4
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
32.0
34.4
Cash EPS
39.5
41.2
44.6
50.4
56.7
60.9
DPS
8.0
8.0
8.3
8.5
9.0
10.0
Book Value
91
108
119
139
161
184
EBIT margin
28.3
26.6
25.8
23.6
27.4
26.5
65.4
64.7
64.8
66.5
66.5
66.5
1.3
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
24.1
19.9
15.5
15.6
18.1
18.1
Leverage (x)
24.1
19.9
15.5
15.6
18.1
18.1
ROCE (Pre-tax)
28.2
24.3
19.9
19.1
21.1
20.0
44.5
39.3
31.2
30.3
34.9
34.4
ROE
27.4
23.3
20.0
20.4
21.3
19.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
25
24
27
28
29
29
Receivables (days)
22
25
26
27
27
28
Payables (days)
99
109
137
134
131
132
(2)
(2)
(4)
(9)
(13)
(14)
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.3)
ROIC (Post-tax)
Operating ROE
Returns (%)
(0.6)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.7)
30.6
15.7
23.8
63.6
57.9
54.7
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
ONGC
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
11