The Concept of the Sustainable Economy and the Promise of Japan's Transformation Author(s): Niccolo Caldararo Source: Anthropological

Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 3 (Summer, 2003), pp. 463-478 Published by: The George Washington University Institute for Ethnographic Research Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3318185 . Accessed: 20/07/2011 11:07
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THOUGHT& COMMENTARY SOCIAL

The

Concept and Economy

Japan's

Sustainable of the Promise Transformation of

the

Niccolo Caldararo
San Francisco StateUniversity

n recentyears the concept of a sustainableeconomy has become a popular theme. LesterBrown's1981 book, Building Sustainable a called for a Society, sustainablesociety based on conservationand populationstability. Whilein the economic situationthis may seem absurdto some, the presentdilempresent ma is actuallyan appropriatecontext in which to discussthe concept. Human environmentalexploitationhas considerableeffectson the ecology of the planet, thus the idea of sustainablehuman economies is appealingto many environmentalists.Some economists (e.g., Kennedy,1993) have been skepticalof scenarios,but currenttrendsin a few localesindicatepotentialavsustainability enues to sustainableeconomic adaptations. Paradigmsof economic development lined to socio-culturalorientation and religious perspectivehave been used recently to explain social phenomenon like "fundamentalism"(see Armstrong, 2000).The basicconcept in this argumentis that a "conservative spirit"infuses nations historicallyMuslimwhich has impeded economic progress. Referenceto Japanin this context should shed lighton this argument. The present interest in sustainabilitymay seem strange to applied anthropologistswho questionedthe developmentmodelsof the post-W.W.II period,esRostow(1960).The debate at that time centered on the peciallythat of W.W.
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The Concept of the Sustainable Economy and the Promise of Japan's Transformation

with sustainable idea of underdevelopment as an index of cultural "vigor," economies classifiedas "traditionalist." attitudewas expressedby Schaedel This in the contextof the periodas, "Thedegree of utilizationthat a given so(1964) ciety makes of its natural resources,given a certain basic technology, is presumably an index of culturalvigor,ingenuity,efficiency,or whatever concept one cares to employ."CarlSauer proposed the idea that human society can achieve a positive level of economic adaptationwhich he called ecological climax (1941).SirJoseph Hutchinsonadvancedthis idea and describedhow such a societycould maintainits vigorand stability, opposingstillcurrenttheories by economiststhat stable societies must degrade(1966).Inthe 1970s a numberof and geographers ecologistsdefined in oppositionto this idea, one of a preferred of a "climax economy",one in which a society had become adapted to its goal the environmentat a level below its carrying capacityand recognizing benefits in animal and plant populationsand the value of wilderness(e.g., of diversity Fisher and Sargent,1974). Little consideration,however,was made to studiesof complexityand densityof complexitywhich demonstratedthat with increasing societiesundergodecliningmarginalproductivity (evenfactoringfor population decliningmarginalreturnson investment,and increasedcostliness innovation), unit of energy extraction(Tainter, 1988). per Consumptionby humans, and the social consequences of consumer sociefor ty, were noted by John MaynardKeynesin his EconomicPossibilities our writtenin 1930. Keynessuggested potentialadaptationsto ecoGrandchildren, nomic structureof societieswhich might lead to a worldof slow or zero growth in and health. Failures plannedeconomies but maintainpost industrial lifestyles and the disparitybetween richand poor in even some of the most developed Western economies have made Keynesian ideas seem idealistic to most. However,some trends exist today which may prove that sustainable modern economies are possible. Bogin(2001) reviewedthe evolution of human populationand its growthand showed that popularnotions of a demographictransition are based on incomplete data on Europeanpopulations in the 19th centurypresentedas simple models in the worksof Davis(1945)and Thompson froma preindustrial assumeda naturalprogression (1929).Thesedemographers have demonstrated,howto an industrial stage in all societies.Anthropologists of populationresponsesto inever,that differentsocieties experiencea variety are dustrialization;population "surges" not uniform in relation to improved health or in food productionand distribution.Scientificdefinisanitationand tions of sustainabilityoften encompass the idea that sustainabilityis not a fixed condition, but a balance between rates of depletion and recovery
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NICCOLO CALDARARO

(Redman,1999; Haggett,1979; Goudie,1993). Some studies of prehistoricsocieties have come to depend on renewabledurationas a central point around which a concept of sustainable society might be describedas in the comparison of long cycle recoveryin soil fertilitydemonstratedin ancient Peruvs that in southwest New Mexico(Sandorand Eash,1991; Sandorand Gersper, 1988). some natural scientists argue that such isolated circumstancesof However, past events cannot be used to predictfuture resource management (Ludwig, Hilbornand Walters,1993). Fromthis perspective,applying analyses of past events to the present breaksdown due to politicaland social pressureas consensus of scientificopinion fails even after the collapse of the resourcesbeing considered. Humanexploitationof resouces, in this view, leads to exhaustion. The Sumerian collapse is used as an example of this process (M.deVreede, 1977). The scientificcommunity has helped to perpetuate the illusion of sustainable development by implicationof scientificand technological progress when, it can be argued,the opposite is true (Roe,1997). Nevertheless,by comhistorical and prehistoric researchwe can approachsome biningcontemporary, sketch of sustainable human society. Whilewe read of the impending crisis in China,most recentlyoutlined by James Kynge(2002) and ArthurWaldron(2002), with insolvent banks, and inwe dustries,and runaway ecologicaldisasters, are often remindedof the millions of Chinesewho want to become consumers.Consumerism the goal, but how is can we have a sustainableeconomy if it is based on the manufactureand consumption of productswhich can only be sustained by an ever increasingpopulation of consumers?We are frightened again by the threatening grayingof America.InJapan,however,we find a differenttheme. Thistheme will be developed below keepingin mindthatJapanesepopulationshave unique histories and that the people of Japando not constitutea uniformentity (Weiner, 1997; Clammer, 2001), though they do reflecta common recentculturehistory. RobertReichspoke for legionsof economists (NewYork Times,2 Sept.2001) when he addressedthe fear that only consumerspendingtoday is keepingthe economy from collapsing.Reichexpressesthe currentlogicwhich arguesthat a recessionusuallyoccurswhen consumersstop spendingand subsequentlycompanies cut their payrolls.Buteven AdamSmith(1776)recognizedthat situations in varyover time as conditionsshift. Certainly the U.S.,the recessionfears have taken front stage over the stock market"melt-down" disintegration the and of with the 1920s and hightech bubble.Thesituation,however,has many parallels 1930s when a Republican administration instituteda tax cut soon afterthe stock marketcrashof 1929.Thispaled,of course,in comparison the tax "rebates" to en465

The Concept of the Sustainable Economy and the Promise of Japan'sTransformation

of in gineered by AndrewMellon,Secretary the Treasury the 1920s which returnedto the wealthiestAmericans much of the tax they had paid in the previous decade according JohnKenneth to Galbraith. specterdoes informus on This sustainable But economies,and givesone pause in the present"downturn." a discordantpictureemergesfromJapan,with a highsavingsrate,billionsinvestedby individuals postalaccounts,a low populationrate,a verylow consumptionrate in and a nearnegativegrowthrate.AsPeterTasker this savargues(2002), "excessive" rate is an impedimentto consumerismand to the paradigmof modern inings dustrialsociety. Weare remindedby Reich's eloquent examinationof the economy,that it is the consumer economy which defines our time. The promise of the internet bubble (yes,there were many promises)was that it heraldeda future of pollution-free,litter-lessproducts.Itsketchedan economy where the most valuable workers,and most profitable productswould be intellectual. But this vision lackeda clearframework, whilethat was one of the reasonsfor its, perhaps, and temporarydemise, this lackof frameworkhaunts discussionsof sustainability. Recentarticlesin Sierra, and in the Yoderler newspaperof the San Francisco (the BayChapterof the SierraClub)have endorsed the idea of a sustainableeconI omy.Asan anthropologist knowthat there have been periodsand people who societies and modes of economic exploitationof their environment produced which sustained the carryingcapacityof their locality.One of the earlierand concise examinations of this idea is that of Joseph Caldwell(1958). The extreme alternativeto a sustainedadaptationis the horrific collapsedescribedby Diamond(1984, 1995)for the people of EasterIslandand used by Charles Jared Redman(1999)to illustratea varietyof types of unstable human environmental exploitationscenariosin historyand to proposea sustainableprojectfor the future survivalof humanity.One of the best and curiousexamples of sustainability,however,in a historicaland industrialcontext is Japan. Inoue(2001)has describedthe evolutionof modernJapanesethought, Kyoko in particular idea of "Jinkaku" the rolethe concept has playedin the deand the of consensus and change, while HarumiBefu (2001) has examined velopment as the concept of "Nihonjinron", the idea of "Japaneseness" a responseto and Ifwe examine this processbrieflythrougha few essential historical modernity. ethos emergingfrom an alevents we can see the outlines of a post-industrial tered continuityof past tradition. and materialculture, Chinaprovided Japanwith manysourcesof inspiration but perhaps the key to understandingcurrenttrends in Japanis in the reperand of cussionsof the introduction Neo-Confucianism its use by leyasuin build466

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ing the foundations of the Tokugawashogunate. This rationalistphilosohyof Chu Hsi came to function as the means by which a new and stable Japanese state could be established and by which trade and commerce could be regulated (Tsunodaet al., 1958). Whilethe Tokugawastate is often referredto as a feudal one, a comparison that confuses its character and institutions with feudalism,the fact that it was based on rationalismis quite different European and often overlooked. MedievalEuropeanfeudalism was a choatic state of affairs, imbued with irrationalmysticismand scholasticism,brutaland constant warfare(Manchester, 1993) basicallyunlikeJapanduringthe Tokugawa period. Infact, some policies bear more resemblanceto effortsto stabilizethe Roman Empire,for example Diocletian'sattempt, similarto that of leyasu (in reforms to begun by Hideyoshi), limitthe movement of people from one locatityto another, to keep people in certain roles in life. The Tokugawaperiod is often described as one characterizedby peace and prosperity,a goal of its founders and guided by Neo-Confucianism, supported by trade and learning. The background these conditions requiresus to recallthat the same year to in which Tokugawaleyasu was born in 1542 the Portuguesebegan to trade in and Japanand Christianity fire armswere introduced. Theyarrivedin a Chinese boat. WilliamAdams of Kent England,became a trusted advisor to the government and showed them how to build big ships resultingin a numberof voyages in Japanese-built ships to India and Peru. During the Ashikaga rule Buddhismbecame powerfulin the politicaland militaryfield. Variousgroups of Christian missions arrivedand quarreledamong themselves and with their converts:the Spanish Dominicans,PortugueseJesuitsand Englishand Dutch Protestants.Eachwarned the government of the evils of the others. Conflicts with the Buddhists resulted as well. The Ashikaga rule ended in 1573 and Nobunagasubdued the Buddhistsand Hideyoshireducedthe daimyos,a class of office holder.In 1585 the governmentexpelled the foreigntradersand comto pelled the native converts to Christianity returnto their former faith. The came to the conclusionthat Europeans their Christianity and were an Japanese intolerablenuisance and a mere cloak for conquest. The Portuguesenever regained a foothold and only the Dutchmanagedto establishtradingrelationsin the 17th century,though limited to the islandof Deshima. Under the Tokugawa family, after 1603, Japan remained closed to Europeansfor over 200 years. Japan cut itself off from the rest of the world. While there is ample tradition for such a course of action in Confucianism and the policies of the Ming dynasty (Tsunodaet al., 1958), contemporary events and information from the world stage were also important determi467

The Concept of the Sustainable Economy and the Promise of Japan's Transformation

nants. Itwas forbiddento buildany ship largerthan for limitedcoastal use. No Japanese could go abroad, no Europeanenter. Japan lived relativelyisolated in its feudal realm as the world went its own way. Some hints of this world came by way of the Dutchon Deshimaand in 1837 a ship sailed into Yedo Bay flying a strange flag of stripes and stars carryingsome sailors she had picked up adriftin the Pacific.Thisship was drivenoff by a cannon shot. Thisflag appearedon other shipsand then in 1853 came fourwarshipsunderCommodore Perry,but they refused to be driven away. They lay in forbidden waters demanding to be heard by the rulersof Japan. In 1854 Perryreturnedwith 10 ships propelled by steam. Perrydemanded open trade with Japan. He landed with 500 men to sign the treatywhich Japan had no power to refuse. sailorwas killed Still,the countrytriedto fend off the future.In1863 a British in a street brawland a Japanesetown was bombardedin retaliation.A nobleof man whose landscommanded the Straits Shimonoseki,fired on foreignvessels violatingpassage and a fleet of British,French,Dutchand Americanships destroyedhis fortifications.Finallyan allied fleet in 1865 landed at Osakaand of Japan,underthe imposed a ratification the open portstreatyto Europeans. Tokugawa,had created a society in which its arts and sciences focused on the maintenance of a prosperousbut insularsociety.Atthe dawn of the 19th century,Japanwatched in horrorthe enslavement and rape of resourcesWestern colonialdomination broughtto its neighbors.Tradeseemed to be a preludeto conquest and isolationappeared to be the best means of avoidingthe fate of other Asiansocieties. ButWesternpowerslooked upon the worldas a collective to resource be dividedup and exploited.Asan ostrichmighthide its head,Japan could not withholdor disguiseitself and its wealth.Japanmanagedto feed the growingpopulation(from23 million in 1650 to 30 million in 1720), but a limit had been reached. Food resourceswere stretched and shortages became prevalent.The Japanese peasant, however,adapted to this harshsituation by abortion and infanticide,practicesknown as mabiki,the same term used for thinning out young rice plants. The population stabilized until the early 19th century.IreneTaeuber(1962)noted that Japan'spopulationwas mainlystable, to from the MeijiRestoration the late 1930s. Yetthe efwith littlegrowth(1.5%) with the populationrisingfrom 35 million fects of this growthwere substantial, in 1872 to 71 millionin 1940. Therewas some outlet for excess populationduring the 19th and early 20th century,mainly in the Americas,but this new increase was the resultof another adaptation by Japan. The outcome of Perry's opening of Japanwas an adaptationof Japan'spolicy to the West.Japan saw that it had three choices before Perry'sarrival:1.
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Submit to colonial rule and be subjected as other non-Westernnations, 2. Resist and suffer conquest, genocide, slavery and suicide, 3. Refuse contact and avoid either course. After PerryJapan saw only two possible courses: 1. Submitto colonial rule or 2. Become a colonial power.Between 1865 and 1900 Japan chose the latter and she created the industrialpower necessaryto become a militarypower.As H.G. Wellssaid, the salvationof Japanresultedfrom this humiliationand, "Neverin all the historyof mankind did a nation make such a stride as Japanthen did."She modeled her new social institutionsafter countriesand borrowedelements of capitalistdevelopmentand milEuropean structurefrom both Europeand America.The foundations of the Meiji itary Reformwere based on a thorough study of Europeaninstitutionsand history of (Benedict,1946). PrinceIto,a framerof the Constitution 1889 went so far as to send MarquisKidoto HerbertSpencerto solicit his opinions on how Japan mightadaptto modernchallenges(Norman,1940).Andin the late 19th century Japan struggledwith Europe'sconcept of nations and the rationalefor colonialism.SinceEuropean nationsclassedthe worldas civilized,semi-civilized and with only those civilizedas capable of being colonial powers,Japanatsavage tempted to avoid solidaritywith the savage class and to prove herselfcivilized by attemptingto colonize. Herfirstattempt was Taiwan.TheJapanesegovernment and press producedan ideology mimicingthat of Europeancolonialism and devised by an American (Eskildsen, 2002).Thisconflictwith the idea of coloits racistcast, had an importantrole in the constructionof nialism, especially a modern identityforJapan,and Japan'scolonialeffortswere patternedon this conflict. Laterduring the Parisin 1919 negotiationsJapan would press for a clause to be inserted into Conferencedocuments putting the world'snations Thisreflectedan old Japanesepolicyderivedfrom against racialdiscrimination. Neo-Confucianthought dating before the beginning of the 17th century as demonstratedin from Fujiwara Seikato the Princeof Annamand a ship'soath drawn up about the same time (Tsunoda,et al. 1958). It was rebuffed,and in the end her delegationsimplyaskedfor the principle equalityamong nations of and the just treatment of their nationals (MacMillan, 2002). Japan'swar with Chinain 1894-5 was a prelude to a demonstrationof how far she had come. and Francecombined to preventJapanfrom reapingthe benRussia,Germany efits of her efforts. In 1898, Germanyand Russiainvaded Chinaannexing portions. Britain joined in the seizureof territory. Japanjoined the Westernpowers in the suppressionof the BoxerRebellionin 1900. ButJapanrespondedand by 1905 Japanshocked the Westby doing what no non-Western power had done since the ebbing of Turkish power in the 16th century,defeat a Westernnation
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at sea and on land.JapanannihilatedRussia's armies navyand crushedRussian in the field. Europeand Americarealizedthat Japanwould challenge them in the Eastand with the coming of WorldWarIJapancould, as Ho ChiMinhnotcivil ed, choose whichside of this European warto be on, or none. Afterthe war, in conflictwith the variousrevolutionary Japanengaged governmentsof Russia as did many Westernpowers,and after the death of YuanShih-K'ai, joined she the USA and Europeanpowersin contesting partsof China.ButJapanwas pursuing morethan respect,so when Japanaskedfor a racialequalityclauseforthe new Leagueof Nations,the European powersrefusedand went further: they established naval arms limits in the PacifichumiliatingJapan into accepting a small navy or face open war (Calvocoressi Pritchard, & 1989). In 1931, Japan took advantage of the chaos in Chinaand invaded Manchuria which had forcontrol.The civilwar in Chinaprovideda pretextfor merlybeen under Russian much in the style of Europeanpretextsjust a generation before or invasion, in "annexations" the Philippines elsewhere.America or would not recAmerican ognize Japan'sclaims in China, but had not condemned those of European powersand had consideredChinato be a sphere of her own influence.Japan's war in Chinahad turned out poorlyby 1939, but no solution seemed possible and America aidingthe united ChineseforcesafterwarlordZhangXueliang was and had kidnappedChiangKai-Shek convincedhim that they should fightwith Maotogether against the Japanese. Japanstood in the middle of the 20th centuryas an equal to nationswhich in had risenfrom traditionalsocietiesto industrialization over 700 years.Japan its had accomplishedthis task in just 70 years.Amazingly, use of the "sneakattack"was an adaptationand elaborationof a Britishplan, created by HectorC. describedin detail by WilliamH. Honan(1991).The sneak attackwas Bywater, not unique in 1941; it was used by Americain 1846 against Mexico,between 1700 and 1870 it used by GreatBritain30 times, and by France36 times in the was HoratioNelson's same period.The best knownattack before PearlHarbor in 1801, which destroyedthe Danishnavy.Butwhat was attackon Copenhagen amazing about Japan'sattack in 1941 was that it used a plan conceived and meticulouslydescribedby Bywaterin a book widely discussedin worldcapitals created a scenario in which Japanwould attack in the 1920s and 30s. Bywater the U.S.A. and seize the Philippinesand Guam.Adm. IsorokuYamamotowas naval attache in Washingtonin 1926 and met Bywaterin 1934 in London. much also describedan eventual American victoryby island-hopping, Bywater as the war would unfold.ThatJapanwould assimilatesuch a paradigmfrom a more advancedseat of powerwas entirelyconsistentwith its culturalpatternin
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responseto Chinabetween the 5th and 16th centuriesof this era (Tsunoda,De this Chinesephilosophy and Bary& Keene,1958).During periodJapanintegrated into a local adaptationwhich was instrumentalin the processof creatreligion ing a centralizedgovernment.Canwe find the purpose behind this plan in the man Yamamoto,with defeat as the outcome? Whyelse would Yamamotoundertakea plan that was doomed to fail by its own architect? course, he was Of assassinatedby the U.S.347th Wingon April18th 1943 almost a year after losIn a ing the Battleof Midway. an interviewwith Shigeharu Matsumoto, member of the JapaneseCabinetiin 1940, Yamamotostated, "Inthe firstsix to twelve monthsof a warwith the UnitedStatesand Great BritainI will run wild and win victoryupon victory.Butthen, if the war continues after that, I have no expectationof success." It is well known that Yamamotowas not eager to enter into a war with the U.S.A. disagreedwith the WarParty's He view thatJapanesevictorieswould force America into a peace favorable to Japan'sdesires to be a recognized world indicatesthat he had no power.The fact that he was assassinatedafter Midway new plan to modify Bywater's If he did he must not have shared it prediction. with his associates or superiors.Perhapshe undertookhis plan for certaindefeat based on his experiencesin the Westwhich gave him another plan, one in which Japan needed defeat to change and become democratic and less culturally distinct. One is reminded of the life of the Buddhist monk Nichiren whose famous tract denounced Japan'srulersin the 13th centuryand predicted the punishment of the people by foreign invasion,one is also remindedof the teachings of YamagaSoko,whose redefinitionof Neo-Confucism terms (in of originalConfuciancontext and emphasis)produceda reorganization the of samurai class emphasizing their need to cultivate other arts and duties than war.Thissystematicexpositionled to what came to be knownas the Wayof the Warrior and led to a conversionof the samuraiclass duringthe long (bushido) to Tokugawapeace from a militaryaristocracy one of politicaland intellectual of movement leadership.Theyeventuallybecame the "brains" the Restoration et al. 1958.) Andwhile such a plan by Yamamototo changeJapanby (Tsunoda defeat would have violated duty to the leadership,it could still be interpreted as devotion or duty to the state. Defeatedin WWII, its industry with and militaryin American hands,Japanremade itself. It still avoided colonial rule, but was forced into the culturalmold of the USA. Japanagain excelled and its economy outstrippedthe West,as did
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withinthis narrow its use of the capitalistmeans of managingwealth. However, transition,Japanese culture remained, outwardlyclothed in the symbols and achievements which define success and progress in the West, but with the bones of traditionthere, unchanged. That tradition is Shinto and the entire of framework personalrelationswhichare guided and given meaning by it, but Befu of modifiedby Neo-Confucianism. (2001)concentrateson the construction Nihonjinronas a conscious process, almost a civil religion, welling up from traditionas a means of dealing with Japan'spostwarstresses. He argues it has But become a "modelfor behavior." this model for behavioris not constructed et on Shintoismalone, and certainlynot traditionalShinto(Tsunoda, al., 1958); which has guided Japan ratherit restson the foundation of Neo-Confucianism since the early 17th century. Japan'sstructuretoday still reflectstraditionand the criticismsof Certainly its traditionaltrade barriersonly serve to expose how this frameworkfunctions to sustain Japanese life and culture.Japan'sdistributionsystem is often for used as an exampleof traditionalinefficiencies; example, in 1987 Japanhad Hsu it ratioof 315:1 while in the USA was 69:1. F.L.K. a populationto wholesaler described the guild structurein detail in his text, lemoto:TheHeartof Japan (1975),and demonstrated how it was a prototypefor organizations.Japanese anthropologistslike ChieNakanearguefor this traditionalsystem as a resilient base for functional adaptation (Kelly,1991). The economic framework preserved the traditionalsociety by mandating rates and trends in employment. stressand change,as Norbeck(Norbeck Thiswas not done withoutconsiderable in the 1950s substantialdeteriorationin kinship patternswere 1960) noted; plain at that time, but reinforcedwith extensions of traditionalforms, like ficforms of protestmergedwith a modern (U.S.-imposed) tive kinship.Traditional fromthe vast pos-warinlegal system,to respondto massivepollutionresulting & dustrialization (Fisher Sargent,1975). Aestheticideas of landscape preservation as well as concepts of public health led to the creation of parks and wildernesswhich conflictedwith increasingeconomic demands for naturalresources (Simmons,1973; Numata,et al., 1975). Still,simply maintainingthe form of the traditionalsociety does not necessarilypreservea sustainableeconomy.Todo that a countrymust have a low fertility rate.Japanhas this. Though in 1991 Jim Impocoof U.S.Newsand World Reportcharacterizedthis population drop as a "silent protest"described by some Japanese doctors as a "babystrike"resultingfrom the changing living conditions. However,the traditionunderlyingthe trend underminesthis porwere the After trayal. WWII, birthratein Japanwas 34.3 per 1,000 and authorities
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alarmed at the potentialfor starvationand social unrest. Unlikeother nations, Japan's responsewas uniqueand sustained.The populationrespondedto the crisis by a dramatic population drop to 17.2 per 1,000 by 1957. From 1949 to 1956 sterilizationsran at 33,000 per year and up to 44,000 in 1957. Morethan 1 millioninducedabortionswere reportedin the same year.Japanhad returned to its traditionalmethods to control populationafter the introductionof pesticides, new health measuresand increasedfood productionin the pre-WWII period had providedthe resourcesfor populationgrowthencouragedbythe need of to meet the challengeof the West.Dramatic concentration industryin coastal areas traditionallyused for agriculturein the postwarperiod resulted in congestion,pollutionand a generaldeclineof the qualityof life.The responseto this situationin the 60s and 70s was to shiftto a less concentratedplan with greater & emphasis on traditionalpatterns(Fisher Sargent,1975). Whilethe USA currently pressures Japanto consume, lowerinterestrates,and create huge WPA-like governmentprojects,the Japanese largelyignorethe crisis. Ourpressand economists deride the Japaneseeffortsto deal with the current economic situation by referringto it as "financialsocialism"(see James to Brooke,NYTimes, Association, 9/11/01). FromKoizumi the Issui-Kai Water (One a Nationalistgroup), the Japanese have resisted going at financial trends in Western has ways.Ourfinancialbailoutof the savingsand loan industry been rejected. Westerneconomists are pressuringthe Japanese to privatizethe Post Officewhere a majority the Japanesepeople have theirsavings.Koizumi reof is The like administration, BushSr.and Jr.and Reagan, sistingthis strategy. Clinton the Japaneseto restructure theireconomyto parallelmoreWestern orpressured ganizationand away from what Hsudescribedas a Shinto-based system. The present situation has parallels with early 20th century Japan, when Western-educated, Junnosuke Inoue applied Westernbankingand monetary theories to Japan'seconomic problems(Tett,2002). The resultwas just as cata astrophicforJapanas these methods were for the West,producing similarcolin and While lapseof the economyand banksas the Depression the USA Europe. no one today can say how Japan might have faired had traditionalapproaches been taken, it is obvious from the West'sexperience with economic policy from 1900 to 1930 that there were no successfulplans. Thisis why Koizumi, deemed a reformerby both the Westand the Japanese, has surprisedWesternobservers. He has concentrated his efforts not on reforming the debt and overregulation,which frightens the West, but on the Constitution- perhaps because it was written by the USA and does not fit the needs of Japanese social adaptation. Hisvisit to the Yashuknishrine in Tokyo
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was in a similartone and while it frustratesthe Westand her neighbors,it resocial motivators. Thistone is seen in Koizumi's election sloinforcesunderlying "Kaeru (Let's Does it mean getting ridof Japan'scentralized yo!" change!). gan, governmentaland economic systems?Not in the way Westernobservershope. of He has hintedthat he would supportreallocations funds from ruralto urban areas, but he is vague about what kind of funds and for what purpose they funds from the urbanareasto would be used. The presentsystem redistributes the poorer ruralareas, is something like a traditionalleveling mechanism. By changing,Japanmay only be adaptingin a familiarmanner,certainlynot in the cults responsiblefor sectaricontrivedfundamentalismof the Judeo-Christian an violence in the restof the world,or in the collapsingfashion of revitalization movements in the face of Westerncolonialismor globalism. Westerneconomic criticshave pointed to the need for bankingreformand the increasedconsumer spending as the only solutions. Certainly U.S.bail out from collapsing of the Savingsand Loansdid not preventjunk bond and REITs in the 1980s, or the stock manipulations,accountingschemes, and the fall of the dot.coms, which rockedthe U.S.economy and left millions of Americans saversas the main problem, Wolf(2002)blamesJapan's withoutsavings.Martin and bailed out the banks had followed Washington but if Japanese politicians that would not have changed things. Japan'speople are better off financially and have better prospectswith their solid savingsthan U.S.citizenswho have seen their savingsand retirementsdisappear.NathanLewis(2002)arguesfor a slash in taxes to save the bankingindustry.But if people do not want to spend, how can this help? TheJapanesehave refusedto increaseconsumption,to producemore children or to change their habits of living.They have maintained a low impact construction industry compared with the West. In fact, Japan'sagricultural protectionismhas protected its farmlandfrom development, and its landuse policies have concentratedpopulationon the coasts and left the interiornearly as densely populated as it was during the last century. Sprawl is not a Japanese problem. So what is happening in Japan?Japan is building a sustainable economy for the 21st century while every other nation on the planet builds non-sustainable economies based on the economic theories and conditions of the 1950s (Pearce& Atkinson,1993). And while Japan, like other developed countries, enjoys enormous imports of natural resources, particularlyoil, efforts are being made to reduce these dependencies and it is obvious that if current population trends continue Japan's"ecologicalfootprint"will decline (Rees,2002).
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Japandoes face a considerableproblemwith energy,given that in 1996 only 18%of its energywas producedby non-fossilfuel sources.By 1998 this share of had increased to 19.1%(Japanese Ministry ForeignAffairs,2001) in a conto certed effortto reach Kyotolevels. Prior the 1990s Japanhad the highestenwith the thoughtthat these costs might costs of any industrialized country, ergy be deterringeconomic recoverythe governmentderegulated much of the energy market,with no appreciableresults. The Japanese of today are living in a depressed economy in Westerneconomic terms. But to the Japanese,they are still livinga very comfortablelife; we they have savingsand securitybased on tradition.Certainly hear of layoffs and the Japaneseunemploymentrate is highforJapanbut at the level U.S.economists have long considerednecessary.Butanother"sustaining" aspect of their of economy is the distribution income. AsWilliamBaumoldemonstratedat the 1991 Sloan Foundation conference on research on industry and economic growth,virtuallyall the wealth that was created duringthe U.S.economy's rein structuring the 1980s flowed to the upper20%of Americansociety.InJapan, the economy'sproductivity as growthyieldeda more equitabledistribution, did Europe'sin general. Their population is aging, but it is also undergoing an adaptationof population profilewhich may have reachedsustainablelevels at present global conditions. This aging of the population is generally viewed with concern and we see similarshifts in droppingfertilityand population in Irelandand Portugal (Bogin,2001). Butthese two nationshave experiencedsignificant migrationalong with droppingfertilityand neither displayedJapan's pre-20thcenturydemographicshifts. Noboru(1999)describesfour crisesfor 21st centuryJapan:1. Intellectual cre2. Sustainableenergy, 3. Environmental and the population. ativity, pollution the Actually, last,a projecteddecline to 100 millionby 2050 (Kristof, 1999), may providethe solution to two of the four.Withthe reductionin populationJapan couldrelyon renewablesourcesof cleanenergythus reducing environmental pollution. A reduction in energy needs will also result from a reduction in consumerism, less garbage and pollution. Bogin (2001) notes that the Japanese spend the most on the elderlyof any nation,that Japaneseadultsare chosingto build their families around care for the elderly.About70%of single women in theirthirtiesare livingwith aging parents.ButNoboruleaves out a morethreatening challengeto Japanand the world,the collapse of worldwidefood chains. Theoceans arealreadyfallingvictimto overfishing erosionand desertifcation and are reducing productivity with changing weather patterns like El Nino. along threatennot onpopulationdemandsforfood and decreasing Rising productivity
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WhatJapancould do now is to ly economic developmentbut modern lifestyles. continuethis trendand reduceits population sustainablelevelsgiven localnato tional conditionsand returnto a mode similarto its pre-1865conditions.Japan is criticisedfor not supportingimmigration people from developingnations of if this criticism moreof a frustation Japaneseculis at (Kristof, 1999).Onewonders turalcontainmentof globalismand resistenceto European dominationas in the 19th century.Bogin(2001)claimsthat this would benefitthe Japaneseeconomy allowing for cheap labor and a wave of immigrantswith high fertilitywhich wouldreducethe slide inJapanesepopulation. factthat Boginrecognizes The that initialfertilityin immigrantsis reducedover time in developingcountries high seems to make this a shortterm solution.Also,Boginand other studentsof human populationseem to ignorethe opportunity Japanesehave of adapting the populationto technologyand environmentalexploitationand resources.Bogin fromdevelopingcountries, developed (2001)arguesthat byacceptingimmigrants countriescan benefit and the childrenwill benefitfrom conditionsin these developed countries.Also,that eventuallydevelopingnationswill also go through a drop in fertilitywhich will producea similarpopulationcrisisin them. Itonly seems rationalthen, if eventuallydevelopingcountrieswill also face a graying populationfor us to face this problemnow, ratherthan put it off. Perhapsit will be better in the long run for all nations to study the Japanese experiment. may Immigration not be the answer,butthe Japanesemayhaveone answer.Iam of not suggestinga returnto pre-industrial technology,rathera modification culOne mightgo so faras to say turalpatterns supportedby21st century technology. of to thatJapanis an indigenouscultureresponding the maladaptation the globet al economy defined by both JulesHenryin the 1960s, Goldschmidt, al. 1990 inJapan's in 1996. Like hisotherperiods Mander Edward and Goldsmith andJerry pressurein its own way, tory,Japanseems to be respondingto an international colonialismin the 19th century.The idea that a country as it did with European can maintaina high level qualityof life, low unemploymentand low consumpand a severe contrastin comparisonwith other developed nation is significant tions. One wondersif we are witnessingthe future. social Finally,Japan has been able to industrializefrom a "conservative" and economic condition from the 16th to the 20th centuriesand maintain a to culturalbase in contradiction what we should expect traditional considerable has also been able to adaptto the to Armstrong's theory(2000).Japan according social and economic stresses of 21st centuryglobalism.

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