Modulul 5 - Modele de analiz semantic

Analiza unui text din domeniul Economiei

Am ales, oarecum aleatoriu, un articol publicat de FINANCIARUL, pe 18 noiembrie 2008, intitulat Products made in Romania start to lose their customers, sub semntura Florentinei Gagiu. Iat i textul (de dimensiuni rezonabile), pentru ca cititorul s poat urmri mai uor analiza.

Products made in Romania start to lose their customers. The main commercial partners of the Romanian companies are in recession. Germany and Italy have officially stated that they have entered in economic crisis. The shock wave has touched also the Romanian economy, through the collapse in demand on the main two export markets, and also on other European markets, where our country still had profitable businesses. The group of the European Union member states that meet the criteria of an economy in recession, respective two consecutive quarters of decrease in the gross domestic product, is more and more numerous. According to the data published by the Statistical European Office, Germany that was considered not long ago the locomotive of the economy in the euro zone, has reported for the second and third quarter a decrease of GDP with -0,4%, respective -0,5%. Italy joins it with an identical evolution of the same index, Estonia (-0,8% for Q2, -1,0% for Q3), Denmark (-0,2% for Q1, -0,6% for Q2), Ireland (-0,3% for Q2, -0,5% for Q3) and Latvia (-0,5% for Q2, -0,5% for Q3). Great Britain, that has recorded a GDP decline of -0,5% for the third quarter and anticipates that the decreasing trend will last till the end of 2008, Spain (with -0,2% for Q3), and the Netherland for which the pessimistic forecast aims December 2008 and January 2009, are getting ready to join the group. Beyond the weak and impersonals figures, there is a harsh reality for these economies, and also for the ones that depend on the goods sold on the markets that are in recession. The Romanian producers, the exporters and the employees that operate in the sectors that supply these decreasing markets are directly affected of what is happening, the risk of producing the domino effect being extremely increased.

Germany, a market without purchasing power. The sustained increase of the wages and the alert rhythm of setting up jobs in Germanys economy, during the last six years, has launched again the consumption, significant affected by the recession during 2001-2002. The Romanian producers and exporters have noticed this and their businesses have prospered due to the raw materials, equipments, textiles and food sales made on the German market. Starting with January, the galloping inflation has eroded the purchasing power and the faith in economy of the German consumers, companies or persons, the market being in a stagnation period, for that afterwards to enter in decline. If the estimations of the European Commission would be the only index of exports orientation, the Romanian companies should stay calm, because the autumnwinter forecast on the German economy shows that the slow down of the gross domestic product growth would be the only one effect of the global recession felt by Germany. Unfortunately, at least in this case, the forecast is wrong. The European Commission forecasted a slow down in GDP growth, while the statistics at day indicates recession, respective a decrease of -0,4% and -0,5% of GDP for Q2 and Q3. The German companies reduce their investments, the number of jobs is in decrease, the consumption enters in decline.

In Italy, the germs of the economic crisis have started in 2007. Since 2007, the evolution of the Italian economy forecasted the recession period in which finds at the moment, even before that the effects of the American subprime crisis to be felt in the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the GDP has negatively developed, recording a decrease of 0,4%, recovering just for a short while in Q1 of 2008, when it increased with 0,5%, for that afterwards to record a decrease with 0,4% in the second quarter and with 0,5% in the third one. The consumption of the population entered in decline, the same the one of the companies, the players inside the Italian economy choosing to preserve their revenues and profits, as precaution measure against the incertitude related to the options for future. The existent recession on the construction market, one of the main factors of increase for the economy from Peninsula, connected to the

unemployment burst, it has limited even more the margins of the Romanian exporters, these estimating significant loses in the following period.

Alert in the Romanian economy. We are in situation of alert, Mihai Ionescu, president of National Association of Romanian Exporters and Importers (ANEIR) stated. We appreciate that well end 2008 with a decrease in demand of 10-30% on the main European export markets, especially textiles, metallurgy, means of transportation, glass and other goods of industrial use. We are trying to find solutions because the decrease in demand could attract bankruptcies in the Romanian economy, massive dismissals and loss of the European funds directed to the modernization of production, Mihai Ionescu appreciates. President of ANEIR doesnt risk making forecast for the next year: Its an uncertain situation, we dont know the plans of our European partners, we dont know if well keep on signing contracts with them. The Romanian production and export companies find themselves at the moment in the impossibility of making business plans for 2009. Florentina Gagiu | 18 Noiembrie 2008 |

Iat acum i analiza pe care o propunem (cu un scenariu propriu).

Vom ncepe cu cercetarea referinelor, pentru a se putea observa temele dominante.

Este evident c textul privilegiaz economy reunind 99 de referine relaionate. Pe locul al doilea apare time, cu 40 de referine despre timp, iar pe locul al treilea apare countries, cu 40 de referine geografice. Analistul se va ntreba desigur ce configuraie au temele principale, altfel spus, ce reele pune n scen autorul n acest text.

economy

0099 0013

business

business entity 0008 commercial partner customer exporter player producer business plan trade 0004 export company consumption dismissal 0004 0006 0003 0001 0001 0001 0002 0001 0003 0001

economic crisis 0033 alert 0003

american subprime crisis bankruptcy collapse decline 0004 decrease domino effect 0010 0001 0001 0001

0001

economic crisis 0002 loses 0001 0001

loss of the european funds recession economy employee 0012 0001 0008

gross domestic product 0007 growth 0002

inflation 0001 investment job market 0002 0009 0001 0002 0001

modernization production profit revenue 0001

0001

sales

0001 0001 0001

stagnation

unemployment burst

n universul semantic al temei principale domin economic crisis (33), iar referinele cele mai utilizate sunt decrese (10), recession (8), decline (4) i alert (3). Putem nelege acum ce relaii angreneaz referinele cele mai frecvente.

INTERPRETARE. Decrese, care s-a produs preponderent n 2008, n trimestrul al doilea i al treilea (articolul este scris n noiembrie), a vizat cu preponderen gross domestic product, piaa european i exportul romnesc. n privina finanelor exist ns pericolul bancrutei.
S privim acum textul din perspectiva referinelor legate de Romnia.

S vedem i propoziiile de baz pe care programul le selecteaz.

INTERPRETARE. Textul face cu preponderen referin la Romanian economy, Romanian producers i Romanian exporters. Frazele sunt suficient de elocvente i apar ca o sintez a informaiei pe care autorul dorete s o transmit. Aceeai analiz se poate face despre Germania, ntruct reprezint a doua mare referin a textului.

Vom trece acum i la alte consideraii mai subtile (verbe, adjective frecvente).

INTERPRETARE. Credem c o bun analiz semantic va trebui s in cont de verbele, adjectivele i adverbele pe care autorul le folosete atunci cnd se refer la criz (a se observa imaginile de mai sus). Se folosesc, n mod dominant, verbe factive (46,7%) i adjective obiective (48,5%). Totui, este interesant de observat c textul nu dispenseaz anumite imagini cum ar fi locomotiva economiei europene, pentru Germania, peninsula pentru Italia. Autorul apeleaz la citat, dar i la termeni psihologizani cum ar fi faith, referitor la ncrederea consumatorilor. Textul economic, mai ales cel jurnalistic ca acesta, caut unele efecte retorice, figurile de stil. Programul nu se neal atunci cnd afirm c avem de-a face mai degrab cu un text narativ.
Vom vedea un ultim grafic, o istogram, pentru a nelege istoria intrrii i ieirii principalelor referine.

INTERPRETARE. Este interesant de observat c autorul i ncepe textul vorbind de Romania, economy, GDP i c, n ultimul episod, concentreaz informaia esenial, ncheind cu prima referina din exordiu (Romania).