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Yes Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 1QFY12 354 325 216 4QFY11 349 349 203 % chg (qoq) 1.6 (6.8) 6.2 1QFY11 262 249 156 % chg (yoy) 35.1 30.6 38.2
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 11,057 1.3 388/234 3,68,075 10 18,436 5,542 YESB.BO YES@IN
For 1QFY2012, Yes Bank reported a strong performance with net profit growth of 38.2% yoy (6.2% qoq) to `216cr, marginally above our estimate of `212cr. Profit growth was driven by sequentially stable NIMs and a sharp drop in provisioning expenses (due to write-back of `15cr), which offset the lower-than-expected noninterest income. The bank seemed to have moderated growth for maintaining NIMs. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock. Business growth moderates; steady NIMs and strong asset quality: During the quarter, the bank seemed to have moderated its balance sheet growth to maintain NIMs, as evident from the sequential decline in advances of 3.7%. Consequently, deposit accretion also declined by 5.1% qoq. CASA deposits continued to grow at a brisk pace of 49.8% yoy, leading to an improvement in CASA ratio to 10.9% from 10.5% in 1QFY2011. The bank surprised positively with sequentially stable NIMs at 2.8% on the back of a 90bp rise in yield on advances, which offset the 70bp qoq increase in cost of funds. With advances growth moderating, non-interest income growth came down to 14.9% yoy. Asset quality of the bank continued to be in a sweet spot, with best-in-the-industry gross and net NPA ratios of 0.17% and 0.01%, respectively, coupled with provision coverage (excluding technical write-offs) of 95.2%. Branch expansion plans were on track, with addition of 41 branches to take the network to 255 branches. Outlook and valuation: Structurally, as the banks balance sheet continues to grow rapidly, we believe there may be downside risks to the banks RoA. On the liabilities side, building a savings deposit franchise involves execution risks. However, as we believe that we are very close to the peak of the current interest rate cycle and as liquidity has improved compared to the extreme tightness during the last few quarters, the environment is expected to be relatively more conducive for banks such as Yes Bank. The stock is trading at of 2.0x FY2013E ABV. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `353. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 26.5 7.0 53.7 12.8
3m (5.3) (3.9)
FY2010 788 54.1 478 57.2 2.8 14.1 22.6 3.5 1.6 20.3
FY2011 1,247 58.2 727 52.2 2.7 20.9 15.2 2.9 1.5 21.1
FY2012E 1,531 22.8 897 23.3 2.4 25.8 12.3 2.4 1.4 21.4
FY2013E 1,860 21.4 1,031 14.9 2.3 29.7 10.7 2.0 1.2 20.6 Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,400 1,026 365 8 1 1,045 354 165 25 83 42 16 519 194 110 85 325 2 324 108 216 33.2 1,223 888 327 6 1 874 349 187 24 77 65 20 535 186 103 83 349 43 306 102 203 33.4 14.5 15.5 11.6 33.2 (56.0) 19.6 1.6 (11.5) 2.5 7.4 (35.8) (21.9) (2.9) 4.2 6.6 1.3 (6.8) (96.5) 5.9 5.3 6.2 (21)bp 739 558 177 3 2 477 262 144 23 76 34 11 406 157 81 76 249 13 236 80 156 33.9 89.3 83.9 106.6 173.3 (67.4) 119.1 35.1 14.9 9.3 8.9 22.4 44.0 28.0 23.8 35.2 11.6 30.6 (88.0) 36.9 34.4 38.2 (63)bp
Var. (%) (2.8) (12.4) (6.1) (8.1) (4.9) (94.5) 2.9 5.4 1.7
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 33,104 43,576 76.0 4,764 10.9 16.2 9.6 11.6 8.5 2.8 37.4 56 0.2 3 0.0 95.2 34,364 45,939 74.8 4,751 10.3 16.5 9.7 10.7 7.8 2.8 34.8 81 0.2 9 0.0 88.6 (3.7) (5.1) 117bp 0.3 59bp (28)bp (10)bp 90bp 70bp 0bp 258bp (30.5) (6)bp (70.8) (2)bp 659bp 26,257 30,239 86.8 3,181 10.5 16.6 10.3 9.6 6.3 3.1 38.7 60 0.2 11 0.0 81.4 26.1 44.1 (1,086)bp 49.8 42bp (35)bp (72)bp 200bp 220bp (30)bp (126)bp (6.3) (6)bp (75.9) (3)bp 1,380bp
107.2
106.6
86.3
66.3
54.8
97.1
79.0
71.4
26.1
20.0 -
44.1
20 -
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Deposit growth also declined because of the slower advances growth. Overall, deposits declined sequentially by 5.7% (up by 44.1% yoy). CASA deposits accretion remained strong albeit moderating at 49.8% yoy (almost flat sequentially). However, despite such a healthy increase, CASA ratio continued to remain at 10.9%, gaining marginal 60bp qoq. The share of Certificate of Deposits (CDs) increased to 13.4% of deposits from 10.9% in 4QFY2011.
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 25 83 42 16 165 24 77 65 20 187 2.5 7.4 (35.8) (21.9) (11.5) 23 76 34 11 144 9.3 8.9 22.4 44.0 14.9
4QFY11
1QFY12
16.5 6.8
16.2 6.6
7.8
Investment arguments
A-list management and ability to raise capital
Yes Bank has an A-list top management team, which brings to the table rich experience from the best banks in India, including Bank of America, ABN AMRO, Citibank, ICICI Bank, Rabo India and HDFC Bank. The banks performance also benefits from managements ability to raise equity capital (at increasing, book-accretive premiums).
Investment concerns
Medium-term downside risks to RoAs
The banks credit market share has steadily increased on the back of a robust credit CAGR of 53.9% over FY200811, which at 0.9% represents an increasingly meaningful market share. The bank has so far managed to source loans with relatively above-average profitability, keeping its NIMs above 2.7% since FY2009, in spite of just 10% CASA ratio. Going forward though, as the size of the balance sheet increases, we believe RoA compression remains a risk to the bank. Moreover, with interest rates rising, even cyclically, the cost of funds would rise at a faster rate for the bank, given its largely wholesale-based funding mix.
At the CMP, the stock is trading at of 2.0x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `353, based on a target multiple of 2.25x FY2013E ABV. A QIP over the next 1215 months (as planned by management) could provide an upside trigger to the stock.
Earlier estimates FY2012 28.0 26.0 11.6 2.4 37.6 38.3 38.3 0.4 0.1 FY2013 25.0 25.0 12.6 2.4 26.2 30.0 30.0 0.5 0.1
Revised estimates FY2012 28.0 26.0 11.6 2.4 33.1 33.8 33.8 0.3 0.1 FY2013 25.0 25.0 12.6 2.3 24.9 30.0 30.0 0.4 0.1
FY2012 FY2013 Earlier Revised Earlier Revised Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates estimates
1,555 858 2,412 940 1,473 137 1,336 433 902 1,531 830 2,361 909 1,452 125 1,327 431 897 (1.5) (3.3) (2.1) (3.3) (1.4) (8.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) 1,874 1,082 2,956 1,222 1,734 204 1,531 497 1,034 1,860 1,037 2,896 1,182 1,714 188 1,526 495 1,031 (0.8) (4.2) (2.0) (3.3) (1.2) (7.6) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)
Dec-05
Aug-07
Mar-07
Dec-10
Apr-09
Jul-05
Oct-06
Jul-10
Oct-11
Nov-08
May-06
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
May-11
Mar-12
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jan-08
Jun-08
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY07 171 94.6 201 101.1 372 98.0 194 124.7 179 75.4 35 101.3 144 49 34.3 94 FY08 331 92.9 361 79.7 691 85.8 341 76.3 350 96.0 44 24.9 306 106 34.7 200 FY09 511 54.6 435 20.6 946 36.9 419 22.7 528 50.7 62 41.6 466 52.0 162 34.8 304 51.9 FY10 788 54.1 576 32.3 1,363 44.1 500 19.5 863 63.6 137 121.6 726 55.9 249 34.2 478 57.2 FY11 1,247 58.2 623 8.3 1,870 37.2 680 35.9 1,190 37.9 98 (28.2) 1,092 50.3 365 33.4 727 52.2 FY12E 1,531 22.8 830 33.1 2,361 26.3 909 33.8 1,452 22.0 125 26.9 1,327 21.5 431 32.4 897 23.3 FY13E 1,860 21.4 1,037 24.9 2,896 22.7 1,182 30.0 1,714 18.1 188 51.2 1,526 14.9 495 32.4 1,031 14.9
70.1 113.3
70.4 111.9
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 280 507 8,220 182.5 867 479 750 11,103 390 903 3,073 6,290 161.3 71 377 11,103 166.7 FY08 296 1,023 13,273 61.5 986 728 677 16,982 959 668 5,094 9,430 49.9 101 730 16,982 52.9 FY09 297 1,327 16,169 21.8 2,189 1,513 1,405 22,901 1,278 645 7,117 12,403 31.5 131 1,327 22,901 34.8 FY10 340 2,750 26,799 65.7 2,564 2,185 1,745 36,383 1,995 678 10,210 22,193 78.9 115 1,191 36,383 58.9 FY11 347 3,447 45,939 71.4 3,333 3,358 2,583 59,007 3,076 420 18,829 34,364 54.8 132 2,186 59,007 62.2 FY12E 347 4,223 57,883 26.0 3,791 4,298 3,097 73,639 3,762 1,473 21,530 43,985 28.0 160 2,728 73,639 24.8 FY13E 347 5,092 72,354 25.0 4,724 5,373 3,868 91,757 4,703 1,835 26,644 54,982 25.0 194 3,399 91,757 24.6
10
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.2 0.5 1.8 0.1 1.9 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.9 0.6 1.2 11.2 13.9 2.4 0.3 2.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 4.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 1.4 13.3 19.0 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.7 3.0 1.4 4.4 2.1 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.6 20.6 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.3 2.5 1.6 4.1 1.7 2.5 0.8 1.6 12.6 20.3 2.6 0.2 2.4 (0.1) 2.3 1.4 3.7 1.4 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.9 21.1 2.3 0.2 2.1 0.0 2.1 1.2 3.4 1.4 2.0 0.6 1.4 15.9 21.4 2.2 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.2 3.3 1.4 1.8 0.6 1.2 16.5 20.6 94.2 11.3 47.0 7.1 31.0 5.9 22.6 3.5 0.5 15.2 2.9 0.8 12.3 2.4 0.9 10.7 2.0 1.3 3.4 28.1 6.8 44.6 10.2 53.9 14.1 1.5 20.9 2.5 25.8 3.0 29.7 4.0 91.0 109.3 131.6 156.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 80.0 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 48.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 78.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 88.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 88.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 88.5 5.8 76.5 13.6 8.2 8.5 71.0 13.6 8.5 8.7 76.7 15.7 9.0 10.5 82.8 19.3 12.1 10.3 74.8 15.7 9.2 11.6 76.0 15.6 8.9 12.6 76.0 15.3 8.5 2.3 52.0 1.2 13.9 2.5 49.4 1.4 19.0 2.7 44.2 1.5 20.6 2.8 36.7 1.6 20.3 2.7 36.3 1.5 21.1 2.4 38.5 1.4 21.4 2.3 40.8 1.2 20.6 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Yes Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12