STATISTICAL INFERENCE

Submitted to: Submitted by:

DR. MUSSARAT ALI KHAN SYED MUHAMMAD ALI (ID # 11048) UMAIR SHAHID (ID # 11069)

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

First of all we pay thanks to ALMIGHTY ALLAH Who helps us to achieve our targets and then follows:

Many people have spent their valuable time, energy, shared ideas for completing our task. We are indebted to all those who took out time from their busy schedules for providing us their point of view, which enable me to prepare this, statistical report. The concepts & theory regarding STATISTICAL INFERENCE, we have learned in our course by our honourable,respectful teacher SIR DR. MUSSARAT ALI KHAN help us much to do this task appropriately .

LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

Respected Sir,

On September 19, 2010, SIR DR. MUSSARAT ALI KHAN had given us a task to submit a practical project report regarding a practical analysis of subject and to apply in real life. As per his recommendation we had to collect the actual data from the resources and then on that real data we had to analyses the situation.

The conclusion was arrived after getting response of three managers and an executive of ARTISTIC DENIM MILLS.

It was a great learning experience for us and we appreciate to in ARTISTIC DENIM MILLS Survey report.

Adm address
Plot No. 5-9, 23- 26, Sector-16, Korangi Industrial Area, Karachi, Pakistan.

Tel: Fax: Email:

+92-21-3505-4629 +92-21-3505-4652 sales@admdenim.com

CASE#1
AREA OF RESEARCH: ARTISTIC DENIM MILLS. The survey of artistic denim mills had been made to gather the data regarding average ages of the workers who work on heavy machinery, so human resources professional were concerned for this task, according to the report of the HR-professional, artistic denim mills have the capacity of 1400 workers in their all departments including spinning, dyeing, weaving, mercerizing, stenter, finishing, inspection and quality control. So data was collected for the last 10 years deaths & the average ages of the workers died in last 10 years, who work on heavy machinery is 60 years from 1991 to 2000. We want to perform a hypothesis test to conclude whether last 10 year mean age, from 2001 to 2010, has decreased over the mean of 60 years? AVERAGE AGES OF WORKERS (20) S# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EMPLOYEE CODE# D-16 F-22 F-26 M-46 W-57 D-33 ST-81 QC-13 F-88 ST-85 D-163 M-102 QC-255 W-203 SP-305 D-212 D-303 ST-111 ST-143 F-93 NAME OF WORKER Mr. Zahid Burney Mr. Ishrat Hussain Mr. Zuhair Mohammad Siddiqui Mr. Mohammad Ilyas Mr. Altaf Akbar Mr. Syed Muhammad Hussain Mr. Nawaz Khan Mr. Kashif Zubair Mr. Sumair Siddiqui Mr Saqib Hussain Mr. Fasih Usman Mr. Abid Hussain Mr. Asif Hussain Mr. Zahid Basheer Mr. Mohsin Hassan Mr. Umair Ahmed Siddiui Mr. Waseem Khan Mr. Noman Hussain Rizvi Mr. Zahid Ali Mr. Rehan hasan Jaffery YEAR OF DEATH 1991 1991 1993 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 AGE OF DEATH 54 60 57 61 60 57 61 59 51 58 60 60 54 49 59 59 49 51 59 58

Now we want to check, At the 5% of significance level, do the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the average age has decreased over the mean of 60 years for last 10 year from 2001 to 2010, Assume is 4.5 years Also, we want to calculate the 95% confidence interval for the mean age of all workers.

SOLUTION:-

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL:

Step # 1
For a confidence interval of ( 1For 95% confidence interval = 1 0.95 1), use table II to find out Z = 0.95
/2

= 0.05 /2 = 0.025 & Z0.025 = 1.96 (From table)

Step # 2
The confidence interval for is - Z /2 . << +Z n we know that = 4.5 years n = 20 Z0.025 = 1.96 & = = 1136 = 56.8 n 20

/2

. n

So, 56.8 1.96{4.5/ 20} < < 56.8 + 1.96{4.5/ 20} 56.8 1.97 < < 56.8 + 1.97 54.8 < < 58.8

CONCLUSION:
The average age of 20 workers lying b/w 54.8 to 58.8 years who work on heavy machinery.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING:

Step #1
H0 : H1: 0 = 60 Years < 60 Years

Step #2
Decide on the significance level Thus = 0.05 we are to perform the test at the 5% significance level,

Step #3
The critical value for a left tail test is ( - Z ) Critical value - Z = Z0.05 = - 1.645 (From table)

Step #4
Comparing the value of test statistics We have 0 = 60 , = 4.5 years . n = 20 and = 56.8 So, Z= - 0 / 20

Z = (56.8 60) / (4.5/ 20) So, Zcal = -3.18 So, |Zcal |> |Ztab| |3.18|> |1.645| Reject Hypothesis

CONCLUSION
Conclusion At 5% significance level data provide the sufficient evidence to conclude that the average age has decreased over the 2005 mean of 60 years.

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CASE#2
AREA OF RESEARCH:

BOSICAR REFINERY PAKISTAN LIMITED

In Oct 2010, a STATISTICAL survey of BOSICAR REFINERY PAKISTAN LIMITED (DISTILLATION UNIT) having 35 graduates & Master degree holders in all fields, it is observed that the Aug GPA of all the graduates and master degree holders are 3.2. After resignation of 2 master degree holders & reemployment of 2 others on the same post in Nov 2010. We want to perform a hypothesis test to decide whether the GPA has changed in Nov 2010 to 3.2? Average GPA of 35 graduates and masters: S# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 OFFICER CODE# OF-12 OF-14 OF-19 OF-26 OF-29 OF-35 OF-41 OF-49 OF-56 OF-66 OF-69 OF-71 OF-78 OF-83 OF-94 OF-98 OF-99 OF-111 OF-116 OF-125 OF-132 OF-137 OF-149 OF-156 OF-166 OF-171 OF-177 OF-179 OF-182 OF-189 OF-200 OF-210 OF-216 OF-244 OF-256 NAME OF OFFICER Hibah Ehtesham Naureen Irfan Adnan Amin Adnan Malik Atif Irshad Kamran Israr Babar Hussain Nida Younas Rana Imran Shoaib Khuwaja Moiuddin Kashif Adnan Zafar Sana M.Salim Rabel Iqbal Aisha Masoom Hiira Naqi jonathen Paul Nazia Habibullah Ayesha Taqi M. Ahmaad Haseeb Ahsan Ali Zulfiqar Saqib Shamim Fahad Ahmed S.Rass Masood Waqas Ahmed S.Shiraz Ali Abdul Saboor Zaman Rafay Anwar Faiza Khan Mustafa Khalid Sana Fatima Muhammad Arif Ali Azeem Rajwani Shabnum Karim COMMULATED GPA NAME OF INSTITUTE Ned university Punjab university Ned university ssuet Karachi university Mehran university Ned university ssuet Karachi university Punjab university Ned university Ned university Karachi university ssuet IBA Ned university ssuet Ned university IBA Mehran university SZABIST IBA Ned university CBM ssuet Ned university Karachi university Punjab university Ned university Karachi university Ned university ssuet Ned university Ned university Ned university

At 10% significance level, do the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the average GPA has changed to Oct, 2010 to 3.2 GPA, assume, =1

Find 90% confidence interval for mean GPA, of all graduate and master.

SOLUTION:

For a confidence interval of use table II Z

/2 ,

For 90 % Confidence interval, = 1-.9 = 0.1

Therefore, /2 = 0.05 So, Z 0.05 = 1.645 (From Table)

Step # 2
the confidence interval will be - Z
/2

. n

<<

+Z

/2

. n

We have, X

= n

n= 35, X = 3.211

= 117.4

Putting the values, 3.211 1.645

) < < 3.211+ 1.645 (

35
3.211-0.278 < < 3.211+0.278 2.933 < < 3.49

35

CONCLUSION:

The average GPA of 35 graduates & masters lying b/w 2.933 to 3.49.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING:
Step # 1
H o: = 3.2 GPA H 1: 3.2 GPA

Step # 2
We are going to perform the test at 10 % significant level, so = 0.10

Step # 3
The critical value for two tailed teat is Z

Critical value:
Z
/2

Z 0.05

Z 0.05 = 1.645 (from table)

Step # 4
Computation the value of test statistics Rej accept rej

/2 -Z We have, o= 3.2, = 1 n= 35, X = 3.211 So, Z cal = X - o / 11

/2

/2 Z
/2

Z cal = 3.211 - 3.2 35

Z cal = 0.011/ .17 Z cal = 0.0647

So,

Z cal

>

Z tab

then reject

0.0647 >

1.645

So, do not reject hypothesis

CONCLUSION:

At 10% significance Level , the data do not provide the sufficient evidence to conclude the avg. GPA of all the graduates & master holders has changed in Nov, 2010 to 3.2 GP

LAST WORDS

In the end it was a nice learning experience for us and we both enjoyed working on this project. we have tried our level best to prepare this term project with collection of real data.

Once again, we are thankful to all management personnel of ARTISTIC DENIM MILL & BOSICAR REFINERY PAKISTAN LIMITED for their full co-operation to complete our task on time.

Last but not the least; we are thankful to our teacher Dr. Mussarat Ali Khan from whom we have learned a lot.