TheFutureofSocialNetworks Thefirstonlinesocialnetworkingservicesinitiallyaimedtohelppeoplemakecontactwith otherswhosharedaneedorsituation.

ion. In their original form as support groups, those suffering from the same illness could exchangeviewsontheforumswhichweretheforerunnerstotheseservices.From1995one of the first networks, the American Classmates, enabled users to get in touch with school friends. BlackPlanet, founded in 1999, was aimed at the AfricanAmerican community. Friendster, launched in 2002, encouraged people to contact friends of friends. In 2003 MySpace seduced the younger generation in America with the freedom provided by its profiles, pseudonyms and musical orientation. Finally, Facebook, founded in 2004, was originally reserved for a few universities and then only the academic world. It therefore formedanetworkofstudentsundertheirrealidentities.Inthebeginninganen.eduemail addresswasrequiredtosignup. InAsia,KoreasCyWorldwaslaunchedin1999andbroughttogethertheyoungergeneration who participated under the cover of avatars. Japans Mixi, founded in 2000, required invitations, thus encouraging the creation of a homogeneous network. Chinas Renren, createdin2005,focusedonthestudentcommunity(withmorethan160millionmembers nonetheless)whichparticipatedusingpseudonyms. In Europe Skyrock launched its social network of blogs in 2002 and, like the radio station, encourages freedom of expression among the new generation. It is the leading site of its kind in France and Europe. Skyrock uses pseudonyms, as does Hyves in the Netherlands whichwasfoundedin2004.SpainsTuentiwaslaunchedin2006andrequiresinvitations. EvenbeforetheInternetandtheWeb,thefirstvirtualcommunitiescametogetherthrough anetworkofcomputers:from1979onTheSourceandsubsequently,from1985,onWELL beforewideningtoincludeProdigy,CompuserveandAmericaOnline.However,thelowlevel of usage, their low profile, the cost and the difficulty of accessing them meant that these firstnetworkswerehighlyspecialisedandlimitedtoaminority.Beforetheirtime,theywere respondingtothefirstpromiseofonlinesocialnetworks:providingasenseofbelongingtoa specificgrouporcommunity. Facebook would make the radical decision to abandon that sense of belonging by successivelyexpandingitsmembershipuntilitbecamewhatitistoday:theleadinguniversal socialnetworkusingrealidentitieswithmorethanhalfabillionmembers. The result is incredible: a mutant hybrid somewhere between microsocialisation and planetaryglobalisation. 1

 As Facebook was initially designed for the academic world where in the same place (the campus) and between identifiable individuals (the students) work, relationships and pastimes were brought together without a past history, it obliged all users to use a single identityinamonocontextualandonedimensionalrelationalnetwork:family,professional relationships, friends from various periods in their lives and leisure activities appeared on thesamepagewithoutdistinction. However, the experimentation and evolving identities of young people did not fit this structure;thecomplexityofadultrelationshipsandtheheterogeneityoftheirsocialworld (itselfmultifaceted)werenottakenintoaccount. The result was a transformation of the meaning of the word friend, compressing subtle relationalsituationswhichnormallycannotbeseparatedfromtheirindividualcircumstances andhistoriesintoasingle,allpurposeterm. Howdidsucharestrictiveanduntenabletranspositionseducesomany? Foronething,whenyoufirstuseFacebookitisunbelievable.Injustafewmomentsallyour acquaintancesappearandyoucan getintouchwithanyoneofthem.Assoonasyouare accepted as a friend by one or the other, you enter into a relationship in a way you have neverimagined.Itisarevelation. Moreover, the service the site provides is extraordinary and innovative: the lives of your circle of friends are now perpetually updated and they all see themselves as being at its centre, playing the game, publishing their news and displaying the details of their lives, quicklygratifiedbythereactionsoftheothers. The traffic on the site and the time users spend there also give the service a quantitative reactivityatanygivenmomentwhichfew,orno,othersitescanrival. But the problems start to appear when using the site. The circle of friends constantly expands until it becomes a crowd. Everything is mixed together in a muddle and users cannotremovethemselves.Thebinarysimplificationoftheconnection(friendornot)leads users to accept waves of contacts into their digital family. These contacts must be kept happyandcannotbekeptwaitingindefinitely.Theinfinite,changinggradientofthefragile fabric of our relationships is therefore put through the Boolean mill until it becomes an obese,distantaddressbook. Subsequent experiences with the service reveal that the initial circle of friends is in fact a publicplace;usersalwaysrealisethattoolate. Themoreanexchangeisreal,themoreitisrestricted.WhatdoIhavetosaytomorethan five friends other than that everything is fine? And what about three thousand? What is expressed via the service therefore slides towards the reassuring banality of our conventionalselves. 2

The site is aware of this situation and has a range of fifty or so confidentiality parameters userscanmanagethemselves.Theyaredirectedtomaketheirdecisionsfromamongmore than150options. It is also possible to set parameters for each publication where recipients can be chosen individually. A lot of time and patience is required to navigate your way through this arsenal which, deliberatelyornot,isconfusinganddissuasive. It should be added that the collateral damage of a wrong step can be dramatic. Friends distancedbysettingparametersforapieceofinformationcanrealisethattheyhavebeen pushedasidewithunderstandableconsequences. Suchcomplexitymeansthatthreequartersofusersdonotchangeornolongerchangetheir defaultparameterswhichthemselvesevolveandareautomaticallymodifiedbytheservice everysixweeksorso. Finally,Facebookownsthepersonalinformationitisprovidedwithandremainsitsguardian for its benefit under the ultimate authority of the jurisdiction of Sacramento in California. Thisisthereforethegreatestexportofintimateinformationofalltime,voluntarilycarried outbymillionsofusersacrosstheworldwithstaggeringnaivety. That is why, to return to the very nature of social networks, many users create a second profileonFacebookusingapseudonyminordertostayintouchwithoneorseveralbetter protectedgroups.Butthemachinesarewatchingand,morequicklythanyouwouldthink, thesiteproposesfriendsfromyourrealidentity.Sometimesitactuallydeactivatesyournew imaginary profile because the service does not encourage virtual identities, particularly whentheyaredenouncedbyotherusers. Thebehaviourofthosewhohavehadtheirfingersburntischanging.Theyareabandoning intimate thoughts and making Facebook their digital identity which can be viewed by all. Theyuseitasapositivevectorfortheirpresenceonthenetwork,ausefulwayofmaking contactsandbeingcontacted.Usedinthisway,theservicedemonstratesitsextraordinary effectivenessinrelayinginformationtofragile contactsandstrangerswhosharethesame interests. Users therefore take back control and ownership of their private lives on other networks where they use pseudonyms or create restricted groups, reproducing the public sphere / privatespheredistinctionwhichisthefoundationofindividualsindemocraticsocieties. Tocounteranydisaffection,theserviceusesingeniousalgorithmstohighlightthepresence of those with whom you are in most frequent contact so that the illusion of intimacy is maintainedaslongaspossible. 3

Thehiddentransactionwhichexchangesconvenientcontactwithfriendsandfamilyforan unprecedented amount of private information is therefore painless to begin with but becomesincreasinglydangerousastimegoesby. Whether you are in the process of negotiating a loan, taking out an insurance policy, competing for a new job or involved in a legal process, be in no doubt that this personal information, so candidly revealed, will probably be used and interpreted against you by unscrupulouspeople. SoisFacebookgettingitwrong?IsittheFriendsterof2012andbeyond?No,probablynot becauseitsapproachindicatesastrategicvisionfoundednotonlyongrowthbutalso,and aboveall,onmetamorphosis. In biology metamorphosis is a profound change of form or organisation in a living being during its development. The nature of Internet businesses, founded on the plasticity of programming code and unrestricted access to the network, easily provides them with this possibilitytotransformthemselves. Facebookinitscurrentformofahybridclosed/opensocialnetworkisonlyastage,justas theinitialstudentsocialnetworkwasonlyaphase.Tounderstandthismetamorphosis,to understandsocialnetworks,onemustlooktothefuture. Whatarethenextstages? Social networks, be they sectorbased, generational or universal, are converging towards fourfunctions. Thefirstfunction:thesocialisationofsearches A search engine indexes the words of all the web pages it can access and lists the pages wherethesewordsappearwhenausersearchesforaparticularword.Googlesincredible success lay in its ability to discover, and translate into programming language, the relationshipbetweenrelevanceandpopularity.Thegreaterthenumberoflinksdirectingthe usertothepagewherethewordssearchedforappear,themorechancethereisthatthe pagecontainstheanticipatedresponse. By combining this engine with a system of auctioning off key words for the insertion of advertising links, Google has combined extraordinary search effectiveness and advertising return. Googleseffectivenessrestsonitsindexingabilityandtherelevanceofitsresults.Ifasocial networklikeFacebookdecidestorestrictaccesstotheindexingofitspageswhilegenerating aconsiderablevolumeofpagesandlinks,itdeprivestheengineofasignificantpartofthe basisforitswork.

Further,ifitprovestobethecasethatthealgorithmsforlistingsearchresultsfromsocial networksaremoreappropriatethanpopularityviabacklinks,apotentialalternativetothe dominantsearchenginemodelemerges. The social search engine individualises the results of your searches and, for example, lists responsesaccordingtotherequestsandresponseschosenbyyourfriends.Itindexesits pagesandthoseoftheInternetwhileitscompetitoronlyindexesthecommonInternet.If theresultsofthesocialsearchenginearemorejudicious,itrepresentsrealcompetitionin termsofstorageandmethod. TheMicrosoftBingsearchenginehasnowjoinedupwithFacebooktosocialiseitsresults.It isprobablethatinthefutureitwillbedifficulttodowithoutthissocialdimensionifthebest response for each individual is to be provided, rather than for all users generally as is the casewiththetraditionalsearchengine. Thesecondfunction:transactions A social networking service is a virtual State under the authority and control of its owner who lays down the laws of use, translated into programming code; this guarantees application. The service naturally ends up performing sovereign security and police functions,includingthevirtualdeathpenalty:banishmentfromthesocialnetwork. Against this Statelike background, the service will create its own currency, initially developedgenerallythroughgamesandthenextendedtopartnershipswithadvertisers.The virtualcurrencyisdestinedtoeventuallybeconvertedintorealmoney,makingthegames anattractiveprospect.Intheend,thecurrencycanbeusedfortransactionsbetweenusers andtocomplementrealtransactions. Defacto,theservicebuildsupeconomicpowerthroughthecollectivepurchasingpowerof itsmemberswhoseaccesstotheserviceitcontrols. Statesmeantaxes.Inthiscase,theytaketheformofalevyonalltransactionsrelatedtothe service: between traders and members, and between members themselves. The social networkingservicethereforemergestherevenuegeneratingfunctionsofbankcards,bulk buyingandtheState. Further,eachtransactiontellstheservicemoreabouttheusersbehaviourwhichmakesits accessmoreattractiveforadvertsandotheroffers. IfanInternetshopperspendsanaverageof1,500ayearandthesitetakes0.5%fromeach transaction that amounts to 7.5 per user. Multiply that by the number of users making purchases...on App Store, the online shop for applications for Apple mobile phones and computers,salescommissiononeachapplicationis30%.

Theaimofthesocialnetworkistobringtogetherasmanypeopleaspossibleusingtheirreal identities, to obtain their bank details (prior to creating its own bank directly or under a licence)andtowelcomeasmanyvirtualshopsandservicesintothenetwork. Thethirdfunction:telecommunications Amemberofasocialnetworkbringsin3ayearinrevenuefromadvertising.ForFacebook, its 600 million members represent nearly 2 billion euros in annual turnover. A mobile member brings in an average of 30 a month, approximately 300 a year one hundred timesmore.Inbothcases,themarginsareindoublefigures. The aim of social networks is to take as much of this margin as possible by placing themselvesatthetopofthetelecommunicationsvaluechain.Whereisvaluetobefound?In the control of customer relations. Once a client has been acquired, the game is to move serviceprovidersandupstreamprovidersfromcontroltointerchangeablecommoditieswith pressurisedmargins. Thetwocrucialmeansofcontrolaretelephonenumbersandinvoicing. Thetelephonenumbercanbereplacedbytheprofilenameofasocialnetworkingservice. Tobeginwiththeprofileisconnectedtoamobilenumberwhichbecomesunderlyingandno longer appears directly in the address book. Subsequently, the number can disappear completely. It is enough to click on the photograph of the person to be contacted via the interface of the social networking application installed on a mobile terminal to be put in touchwiththatpersonwithouteverenteringthetelephonenumberorevenknowingit. The social networking service, backed by its collective purchasing power, then negotiates with operators for use of the network, accumulating mobile virtual network operation (MVNO) functions on the traditional network and bandwidth purchaser functions on Internetnetworks(IPnetworks).Asausageheavyweight,itpurchasesinbulktothensellon the telecommunications service at a very advantageous price for its users, all the while retainingthelionsshareofthemargin. The social network therefore holds the digital identity and invoicing. The member of the social network has become a mobile client. As for current clients, they obviously benefit fromaccesstotheglobalnetwork. The telecommunications operator therefore becomes a social networking provider, in competitionwithalltheotheroperators.Theuserisaclientofthesocialnetwork.Hedoes notknowthroughwhichnetworksandwhichoperatorshiscontributionspass.Henolonger hasadirectrelationshipwiththenetworkstraditionaloperator. The telephone interface of the user becomes the interface of his social network and the latteristurnedintoatelecommunicationssocialnetwork. This is not a national approach. The aim is to become an international address book and operateamassivetransferofmarginsfromthetelecomsindustrytothesocialnetwork. 6

Andtheheartofthebattleliesinmobileterminals.Thereare7billioninhabitants,1billion phone lines, 1.2 billion PCs, 2 billion Internet users and 5 billion mobile telephone subscribers. With their presence established through their applications on all intelligent mobile terminals,socialnetworksaretakinguptheirposition.Itisprobabletoothatterminalswith functionsdedicatedtotheuseofthemainsocialnetworkswillfindaplaceinthemarket. There is no mobile phone book or email directory. The best way to contact someone for whomyouhaveneitheratelephonenumbernoranemailaddressisaglobalsocialnetwork andallthemoresowhenithasintegratedthefunctionsoftelecommunications. Further, although the traditional telephone system allows people to communicate with anyonewithanumberknowntothem,itdoesnotallowthemtogetintouchwithandbring togetherenmasseestablishedcontactsandstrangersthroughthecreationofanetworkof immediate ad hoc exchanges which are instantaneous and updated in real time. This function of virtual mobilisation has undoubtedly demonstrated its effectiveness as an acceleratortotheArabSpring. Betterthanthetelephone,socialnetworksplayanirreplaceableroleinrepairingthebroken fabric of human relationships, something we are currently witnessing in Japan after the catastrophicearthquake. Thus the social network becomes the best means of access which, depending on users preferences,allowsthemtoleaveoneorseveralindividualswhomightbeknowntothemor notatext,soundorvideomessage,tohaveimmediateordelayedaccess,etc. Aswellasitsagreementsasavirtualoperator,theservicewillalsobeabletoobtainfrom operators a commission on all the communications which pass through its mobile application.Andtheonewhichrefuseswillriskdeprivingitsclientsoffulluseofthesocial networkasacommunicationinterface.Goodluck. Whatresponsefromthetelecommunicationsindustry? NetworkmanagersdonotnecessarilyunderstandthecultureoftheInternetandthinkthey would be better off concentrating on their basic task by increasing their market share through the merging and acquisition of peers so as to use their size to resist pressure on theirmargins.Thetrendisalsotodifferentiatebetweentechnicalservicestoincreasevalue, resultingintheirdifferencesastotheneutralityofnetworks.Asforecasters,theyalsothink that, in the future, most revenue will come from traffic between machines (which are destined to become preponderant on the mobile Internet), removing from interpersonal trafficitscurrentstrategiccharacter. However,somerareoperatorsdothinkthatinterpersonaltelecommunicationsarevitaland that being relegated to the service provider role would call into question the very foundationsoftheindustry,evenbeforetheincreasedpowerofintermachinetraffic.They mustthereforeinvestinsocialnetworks. 7

As attempts at homemade social networks have generally not been convincing, the preference is for acquisitions. That is what SK Telecom did in Korea when it took over CyWorldafewyearsago.Similarly,SpainsTelefonicarecentlypurchasedTuenti. Whatiscertainisthatasocialnetworkingserviceisinitselfatelecommunicationsinterface. We are witnessing today emancipation from mobile telephone numbers. Thanks to FaceTime from Apple, two users of the iPod Touch or the iPad 2 can talk via a video link without having to exchange phone numbers at all not to mention the global success of Skype... Prolonging that competition, one of the fields of telecommunications battle with social networksiscertificationofidentity. On a social network with real identities there is nothing to prove that I am contacting the personactuallypresentedinhisorherprofile.FrequentlyonFacebook,imposterstakeon the identity of third parties to talk to their friends and siphon off all kinds of useful informationfordiscoveringtradesecrets,divorceproceedings,apoliceinvestigationorjust outofunhealthycuriosity.Suchusurpationcanbeextendedtoallkindsofswindleswhereby anindividualobtainsinformationaboutanotherwithouttheirknowledge. Theweaknessofidentitybasedsocialnetworksisthefalsificationofidentities. The State is the ultimate authorityon identity,a functionwhich social networks lack. As a temporarystopgaptherearecreditcardnumbersandtelephonenumbers.Theconvergence ofterritoryandinterestsbetweenthreeplayers(banks,telecomsandsocialnetworks)can clearlybeseenhere. Telecom and banking mutations do not concern Facebook alone, although it is potentially the major player. Differentiated networks are also stakeholders in this evolution because they will better serve their specific audiences through the integration of banks, mobile telephonesandthesocialnetworkintoanappropriateoffer. Thefourthfunction:simulatingreality This function appears to be the most esoteric but it could lead to the greatest revenue: simulating reality. The principle of simulation is the creation of a virtual and dynamic computer model which tries to reproduce and then anticipate reality. Simulation is constantlyreadjustedcomparedtoactualdataandthusitincreasesitspredictivecapability. TheideaistouseallthedataofasocialnetworktoanticipatewhatwilloccuratD+1,exactly likeweathersimulationsbutthistimeforhumansociety. TheGooglesearchenginewasabletofollowtheprogressofthefluepidemicaccordingto thesearchtermsenteredbyusersinallgeographicalareas. AninternationalgroupofscientistsiscurrentlyworkingontheLivingEarthSimulatorwhich aimstointegraterealdatafromallpossiblesourcesinordertofollowhumanactivity. 8

Forasocialnetworkitmeanscorrelatingtheimmensequantityofdataithaswiththestock markets.DerwentCapitalMarketsnowdecideswhethertoinvestaccordingtothemessages publishedonthemicrobloggingserviceTwitter.Attheheartofthisapproachistheworkof scientists at the universities of Manchester and Indiana who have managed to predict the highsandlowsoftheDowJonesIndustrialAveragewithasuccessrateof87.6%thanksto tweets... This predictive faculty is to be combined with the role now played by machines in stock markettransactions.Accordingtoexperts,theymanagemorethan70%ofthetotalvolume. Such ultrarapid management by algorithm needs to be fed with data in real time. To this end, Dow Jones has just launched a stock market information service, Lexicon, used by machines. Establishmentofapatterninthiswaythroughmassiveinjectionofdatacorrespondstothe current operating method of machines which is not the same as humans. Instead of establishingreasoning,themachineusesprobabilitybasedalgorithmswhichareappliedto enormousamountsofdata.Clearly,thatmeansthatthemachineisnotlookingforlogicbut emulation: by examining the data, the machine establishes relationships of probability betweenthem.Themachinediscovers,forexample,thatifEventAoccursthenEventBis threetimesaslikelytooccurasEventC.Themachinehasnounderstandingofthecausality offactsbutdeducesfromthiscorrelationtheirrespectivechancesofoccurringinthefuture. These empirical algorithms are then combined with others through a process of genetic assemblyandcompetitivevirtualselectiontoproducethebestperformingalgorithms. One can therefore understand the immense interest in the amount of data collected by socialnetworksatanygiventimeassoonastheyareintroducedintotransactionalmachines functioningontheseprobabilitybasedandevolvingalgorithms. Thecombinationofsocialnetworksandfinancialmarketsisarevolution.Itcanbeappliedto the entire economy. Anticipation is key for businesses in terms of allocation of resources, productdistributionandstrategicdirection.Theproductivitygainstobeachievedbythese simulationtoolsareconsiderable. Access to this information is becoming a strategic issue, an indispensable lever for competitivenessand,forStates,aquestionofdigitalsovereignty.Mightitbepossibleforthe behaviour simulation data of an entire country to be monopolised in the machines of a competingnation?Isitbelievablethattheirpublicandprivateeconomicintelligenceplayers willnotobtainaccesstotheirownadvantage?Theimpactisimmeasurable. Onlinesocialnetworkservicesarenewbusinesses;mostarelessthantenyearsold.Theyare theservicesofthefutureandfewcanimaginetheirpotential.Thisiswhatexplainstheirkey role,notonlyinthefuturebutalreadytoday. PierreBellanger 21/03/MMXI 9