Impact of Iran-EU relations to the South Caucasus

Filed under: My analytical writings Orkhan Gafarli @ 2:20 pm

The European Union started implementation of its toughest sanctions yet against Iran. The new package of sanctions against Iran was adopted in the EU foreign ministers meeting held on July 26.This package includes more severe sanctions and against Irans key energy sector, oil and natural-gas industries. Investments in Irans energy sector by European Union countries, also transfer of technology and providing technical help to this country is restricted. At the same time, according to information given by the EU Central Bank only in the amount of 45 thousand euro currency by physical persons will be allowed to transfer to Iranian banks. Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated that EU oficially adopted new sanctions that target Iranian international trade, banking and energy sectors: Weve sent quite a powerful message to Iran, about that their nuclear program is a cause of serious and growing concern to us. Because of these concerns, EU foreign ministers adopted restrictive measures against Iran.This package is comprehensive and robust. Energy is including the all important areas included in this package.* The statement came from the Iranian government immediately after adoption of these sanctions. In the meeting with Yukiya Amano, IAEA director general, Irans envoy to the agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said that Iran was ready to hold negotiations over enriched uranium swap with the Vienna Group, consisting of US, Russia and France . And to the question about the date of the meeting Soltanieh answered that, We are ready, we can even meet today .** But it is clear that, this offer was made in order to buy more time.However, to obtain concrete results must be provided. On the other hand, this package will create very serious economic problems for Iran, narrowing opportunities of Tehran for maneuvers in negotiations.

The sanctions that Western countries turned against Iran could not pass without influence on relations between the South Caucasus countries and Iran. It is understood in advance that, Iran will strengthen its foreign policy instruments in the South Caucasus. In oreder to clarify what constitutes these instruments of pressure, relations between Armenia Iran, Azerbaijan Iran and Georgia Iran need to be re-examined. Special attention should be paid to the relations between Armenia and Iran. The relations between these two countries are strengthened by developing and diversifying, especially in the fields of trade, tourism, transportation and energy. Armen Movsisyan, Armenian Energy Minister in his statement on 13 July annoounced that, this year willl be started the construction of the third hydroelectric power station on the Araks River, a pipeline for delivery of Iranian oil products to Armenia and a high-voltage power wire. The construction of the hydroelectric power plant that costs U.S. $ 350 million will be realized by Iranian companies. Armenia, will pay half of the value of the plant by selling electricity to Iran.Oil pipeline, in the amount of 180 per million dollars will be financed in common. With this line, Iranian oil products will be able to be purchased according to world prices. The construction of high voltage line is planned to begin within about a month and in 18 month period will be finished. This line will connect the electricity delivery network of the two countries . In addition, the railway project between the two countries also have important regional private.According to plan, the 410 kilometers of the total 470 kilometers of railway will cover the whole territory of Armenia. 60 kilometers remaining will be done in Iran, and Iran will realize that with its own financial resources. Railway project is considered to be realized in three stages. Therefore, the railway is expected to be completed within five years. Railway project is calculated to cost $ 2 billion. For the expansion of cooperation between Tehran and Yerevan, Armenias defense minister Seyran Ohanyan made an official visit to Tehran on July 19. Ohanyan met with the Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki and consolidation relations in the fields of defense and economic issues between the two countries were discussed during the meeting. ***

In the resolution against Iran adopted on June 2010 by UN Security Council, was announced to stop cooperations that serve to acquire nuclear energy. . But it is really incomprehensible that after this decision Armenia still continues to cooperate with Iran. After that, the EUs announcement to stop cooperations with Iran put Armenia even more tension situation. Its main ally in the Middle East of Iran considers the status of the international arena Armenia salmaqla with deadlock, puts realization of planned projects under qthe question. (Armenian leadership understands that good, the economic situation of Iran understood arladqca projects will be the second plan.) But these projects are very important for Armenia in order to improve its economical situation. At the same time, Yerevan understands that Iran will make pressure on Armenia in order to prevent possible changes in the position of Russia. Yerevans non-constructive foreign policy serves to increase the importance of Tehran in the region. Although Armenia today is a member of the the Council of Europe and the United Nations, participant of the EUs Partnership for the Middle East project, the NATOs Partnership for Peace Program, but cooperation with Iran undermines its international image. On the other hand, the knots occurred in the Armenias foreign policy threat the stability in the region. In response to Iran Armenian relations Azerbaijans alternative policy in the region has cooled the Baku-Tehran relations. Similarly if we pay attention to the Tehran-Baku relations we can see that, Iran bilaterally cancelled the visa regime on November 13, 2009, though Azerbaijan side failed to take this step. It is obvious that, Azerbaijan conduct policy directed to weaken Irans influence in the region. In order to reduce the actual dependence of Nakhchivan from Iranian gas a gas pipeline beetween Nakhchivan and Igdir was added to the articles of the contract signed with Turkey on June 7 by official Baku. Thus, Taner Yildiz, Turkish energy minister visited Nakhchivan on July 17, and signed documents related to gas pipeline. Interesting feature is that in this document, the parties make mutual concession to each other: Turkey will not receive transit fee for the gas transferred to Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan pays construction expenses of the gas pipeline. This belt will be held at the end of 2011- at the beginning of 2012. With this steps, Azerbaijan is trying to undermine Iranian influence in the region .**** When it comes to relations between Iran and Georgia, it should be taken into account that, there almost no relations between the two countries. During the visit of Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister to Georgia in May of this year some discussions were

made around some agreements. According to press reports from the Irans Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 24, political consent was obtained between the two countries on the cancellation of visa regime. A day later, on May 25 the news emerged on Georgian press that M. Saakashvili has invited M. Ahmadinejad to visit Tbilisi. However, 10 days after, M. Saakashvili rejected this story and said that such an invitation was 4-5 years ago. 4-5 years earlier, Iran was different from todays Iran and no invitation has been made in the current situation. M. Saakashvili also annuonced his opinion oh Tehrans nuclear energy obtaining. In the settlement of this problem Georgia stated that supports the agreement on obtaining nuclear energy between Turkey, Iran and Brazilia.***** It is under the question how much the EU sanctions against Iran adopted on July 27 will be effective. And it is already obvious from Iranian officials statements that these sanctions will not bring solutions. Today it seems more to contiue negotiations over the agreement that was signed betweenTurkey Iran Brazil. Results to be obtained will reduce tension in the region. If this agreement is recognised by the world community, the hostility that has been continuing between Turkey and Iran by the terms of history in the Near and Middle East and South Caucasus will come to an end. New Turkey-Iran relations in the region will ensure peace in the South Caucasus.