SWOT Analysis Model to Calculate Our Capabilities Facing International Challenges in Turbulence Ocean

As 2007 politics speech by our president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said that, in facing the problems and challenge before us, we must have a rational and realistic awareness of our own capabilities, it means that Yudhoyono has recognized our own capabilities for challenging this bare turbulence ocean, that strongly estimated more harmful than advantageous as we take an important role in international politics. The question is how far our capabilities influencing enough towards our foreign policy decision making in order to solve our problems and face the challenges ahead, domestically and globally? This paper will discuss about a brief SWOT analysis of our political and economical condition to measure our capabilities to assert a more assertive policy towards this international challenges. Talking about capabilities, I remember an analytical framework named SWOT analysis to measure our strength, weaknesses, opportunity, and threat, in order to decide our decision towards our particular problem and challenges. This analysis estimate capabilities as a wide ability to determine a decision to solve certain problem based on internal potency and external condition that support and obstruct our decision to make a more assertive policy. SWOT analysis itself consisted of Strength as internal potency to support our and extend our decision to be more assertive, Weaknesses is obstacle that come internally from our own inability, Opportunity is a condition that can support our occasion to decide something, and the last, Threat that is a condition that estimated can thwart our decision. In order to decide a state policy, Strength can be interpreted as power. The power itself, according to Goldstein-Pevehouse, is defined as the ability to get another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to what it would have done)1 . This power is measured from population, geography, natural resources, industrial capabilities, military capabilities, will, leadership, internal organization, and perception as potency for a state to decide her policy facing problems. This power is a potency that is tends to be externally influencing to the environment or international politics for this case. Weaknesses are interpreted as the lacking or absence of one or more element of power. This can be an obstacle to decide a more assertive decision. Opportunity itself is interpreted as a low international pressure and a high political legitimacy, which come from external matter of the state both domestically and internationally. And the threat is a low political legitimacy form domestic politics and a high international pressure. According to Kai He, international pressure determines the pattern of state behavior, i.e. external/internal balancing or compromising in words/in deeds.2 A neoclassical realist approach, the international pressurepolitical legitimacy model, sheds more light on the connection between democratization and foreign policy changes in Indonesia. In this point, will only be discussed about the first element, which is, international pressure. As the international system is anarchical in nature, states seek security as the highest end by relying on self-help behaviors3 . This external factor is strongly influencing how a state will decide her policy between balancing internally, or externally, and compromising in words or in deeds. For Indonesia, strength or power can be categorized as medium, as Pevehouse-Goldstein categorized her with some other influential states in their respective region, such as Iran, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan. As a huge amount of unexploited natural resources due to lacking of technological matter, literally Indonesia has a big potential to be a strong power. Military forces are currently minnow as military budget has been pushed down to its minimal essential force. It means that Indonesia doesnt have an outstanding military capability in order to adjunct her relative power. Her population that is numbered fourth in the world become a potential capital if empowered well, instead of increasing national burden by
Joshua S. Goldstein dan Jon C. Pevehouse. International Relations 8th Edition. (New York: Pearson Longman, 2009).p. 45 2 Kai He, Indonesias foreign policy after Soeharto: international pressure, democratization, and policy change on International Relations of the Asia-Pacic Volume 8 (2008) 4772, (Spelman College, Atlanta: Advance Access published on 4 August 2007), page 47 3 Waltz, K. Theory of International Politics. (NY: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1979) page 126
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unemployment. But, for Indonesia this huge amount of population is still becoming this national burden due to low human resources empowerment, especially in education, which is allocated by 20% in State Budget as constructed by Constitution but can be much less indeed. Based on this condition, power of Indonesia or strength in SWOT analysis can be considered as medium that we can easily make any decision towards this challenge but we have to choose what decision that is suitable to be asserted in any single occasions, because we cant easily another actor, especially most powerful actor, to do what we do want to do, unless we can arrange support from another country to force them to assist our national interest. In this case we should corroborate our potential soft powers which are will, leadership, internal organization, and perception. These potential soft powers are according to leadership, wisdom, persistence, and capability of our president and his staff as decision making actor to utilize this kind of power. Fortunately, as SBY was elected directly by people through general election, political legitimacy that he could gain is high, but he should be aware to balance this legitimacy in legislative, which was gaining more authority and power to influence the government since Constitution Amendments in 2002. The international real pressure can be considered as low that we had made any outstanding achievement in global warming; war on terrorism; and democratization issue, which are being became global hot issue, so we can balance internally to strengthen our policy rather than compromising. Based on explanation above, SBYs presidency can decide any required policy towards this global challenge. As long as he can tame legislatives progressing power and he can gain beneficial support from another country, he will have an outstanding political modal to control Indonesias mother ship to challenging this turbulence ocean of international politics and taking benefit from this odyssey. Indeed, SBYs presidency has asserted a policy named thousands of friends and zero enemies policy in this international society, by actively arrange any strategic partnerships with both of developed countries, especially USA and another developing countries. Thus, with our own recent capability or power, if we want to take benefit from this global initiative fellowship (aka Turbulence Ocean of international politics) by international arrangement for our national interest, we have to strengthen our soft power such as leadership, political will, internal organization, and initiative which is less tangible but as important as hard power.

Author: Sandi Tawakal Anugrah S. (0906524305) Department of International Relations Faculty of Social and Political Sciences University of Indonesia Cookie no. 32