CYBERNETIC ANALYS$

OF

INDIAN SOCIETAL

SYSTEIW

CYBERNETIC ANALYSIS
OF

INDIAN SOCIETAL SYSTEM

A Study of ils Course (1961-S0), Grises and Conditions for DeveloPment

P. N. RAgTOGI
lndian lnstitute of Technology, Kanpur

CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH

NEW DFLHI'1f:00157

@ CENTRE FOR POLTCY RESEARCH

1e78

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without the premission of the publishers,

Price:

fnland

Rs. 40-00

Foreign $

Published by

the Diiector, Centre for Policy

Research

C-6, Commercial Area, Paschimi Marg, Vasant Vihai, New Delhi-110057,

and

Printed at Emerson Printeis, Delhi-110006. Phone : 276266

(v)
FOREWORD
The study of national societies as "systerns" is of recent origin. For reasons of the complexities which are involved in such systems, their study has been considered out of reach for social scientists. Yet such studies are the crux of any bioad spectrum effort to move societies in the desired direction, which incidentally is the essence of modern planned
develo pment.

The Centre lor Policy Research has been engaged for some time in studies of basic national policies to evolve broader policy frameworks. lt was, therefore, a challenge to look at the aggregate societal system in India and to

examine the viabilily of both the approach and the model' Few people in the country aie more qualified to do such a study than Prof. P, N. Rastogi. Prof' Rastogi applies the cybernetic model to the Indian societal system. He vierrys a society as a self-governing system which steers itself through its inform' ation and control system. Steering of a society means guiding and directing its course in an intelligent manner.

system change, viz. (1) Investibie resouices, and (2) Education, deserve serious consideration.

Rastogi's model and study is reasonably simple to compre' and conhend, and its various scenarios for the country clusions deserve a careful study by national planners and policy makefs, even after his caveat that this is only a modest beginning. In particulai, his finding of two basal levers of

Despite some

ol the

essential quantification' Prof.

Hopefully the study will provoke further interest in the field by policy makers, practitioners, and academic scholars in social system area.
Centre for PolicY Research

New Delhi-110057
January, 1978

V A Pai Panandiker D irectgr

(vi

It shall be the task of sociology to check social values and norms against social consequences.

-Radhakamal Mukerjee
God does not play dice with the world.....,....., Universe is rationally ordered and knowable by human intellect.

Albert Einstein
Sociology as the science ol society has to foresee and to foresee in order to contiol.

to know in
-Auguste

ordef

Comte

(vii

PREFACE
Present work seeks to analyse the dynamic behaviour of contemporary Indian societal system. The conceptual framework and the methodology of analysis here is based on Cybernetics-the science of inlormation and regulation. Over the last several years, the author has developed the application of cybernetic {ramework to social phenomena and societal systems, This effort has led to a consistent and interrelated set of con-

cepts and analytic procedures

make possible an unique c haracterizatio n of system behaviour and an unambiguous identification of the sources and modes of its pioblems. They have also led to a realization of the retiodictive confirmation and verifiable predictive inference regarding the variables included in a soc ial-cybernetic model.

in social

cybernetics. They

The analysis of the Indian societal system attempted

illustrates all these asPects.

here

The chaptei scheme of the work is as follows. The first ahapter discusses the nature of society as a cybernetic system. It piesents a conceptualization ol a national society as a dynamic multi-cyclical system of interacting regulatory processes. The behaviour of a societal system is then seen to be the iesult of its internally interacting control cycles and the iandom exogenous impacts on the system from natuie and other societies. When the control cycles ol a system fail to function in accoidance with theii intended and recognized regulatory roles, problems are engendered in the system behaviour. How the failure of these control cycles' i.e. internal regulatory processesr individually and conjointly leads to diverse types of national crises and malaise is brought out in the second chaptei, The third chapter outlines bfiefly the rationale of procedures loi computing the vialibility of a societal system and generating its tlme path through system simulation, lt dis' cusses briefly the nature ol the simulation algorithm that pro' duces time varying values of the system vaiiables. lt also enumerates specific themes oJ verifiable piedictive inference and retfodictive confirmation. The fourth chaptef piesents the

( viii

results of system simulation, i.e. the simulated behaviour o{ the system from 1961 to 1975. A consistent comparability of the simulation results with the actual events and processes during the same period is demonstrated. The fifth chapter extends this exercise upto 1980. This exercise was originally carriecl out in August 1975^ Four possible tir.ne paths of the system cofresponding to four different future scenarios are depicted
here,

The remaining chapters are devoted to the issues and mechanics of a societal system's holistic and integrated development. 'l'heir point of depafiure and conceptual fountainhead lies in the basic model introduced in the first two chapters. Chapter six elucidates the concept of societal development, defines its goals and operationalizes it through an analytic device of a system's performance panel. This chanter as well as the next on the methodology of societal planning do not involve any new assumptions. The methodology outlines a planning paradigm and identifies the most important control points and constraints in planned system change. This chapter outlines four different but convergent routes of system planning and deduces the basic strategy for an underdeveloped society,s transformation toward a status of higher system viabiiity. Chapter eight discusses the problems of inflation, economic growth, unemployment, admlnistrative effectiveness, public unrest and internal divisiveness in the Indian society and shows the limits to their piecemeal solution under existing conditions. Chapter nine depicts the process of system trans{ormations brought about by the implementation oJ the planning strategy. The dynamic lrehaviour of the system is seen to stabilize at a high level of viability within eight years. The last chapter indicates the nature of an information and control system needed for implementing the strategy o{ system transfofmation. This planned cybernetic ( i. e. information and control) construct is again seen to be conceptually embedded in the basic cybernetic model of chapter o ne.
The focus of the present work is on the Indian societal system. The analysis and the findings here would howevei be

( ix)
applicable to other developing societies

also with appropriate

contextual modifications. The concepts, themes, propositions and methodology of the work are based on a general theoretical framework. The work nray accordingly be also viewed as a modest beginning toward a science and technology of societal systems. The science part is related to system analysis; the technology part to system development. Both are integrally related and complement one anothef. W, N. Whitehead has observed that science advances by asking different questions, i.e. foimulating its research queries in terms ol an alternate set of concepts. Shifts in research paradigms according to Kahn come about as the new paradigms begin to provide new and meaningful accretions to knowledge that were unrealizable before, Cybernetic frame-work presented here similariy provides a new research paradigm in the social sciences. lt asks different questions about social reality and leads to results unattainable before, lt starts with fundamental and universal regulatory processes underlying the societal phenomena. The results of its deductive procedures are then confirmable through their enrpirical implications' Time-specific changes involving persons and events, processes and places become understandable as the empirical concomitants of the univefsal sYstem dYnamics.

The writer wishes to acknowledge with thanks the support provided by the Centre lor Policy Research for carrying out the work reported here. Two research reports entitled,
ment of lndian Societal System' were prepared for the Centre during November 1975 and September 1976 iespectively. The present volume is a ievised version of these two reports. Thanks are also due to the staff of the Centre for their help and cooperation especially to Shri Y. L. Nangia who supervised the printing and publication of this work. Last but not the least the writer is grate{ul to Dr. V,A. Pai Panandiker for his interest and support that made possible this work'
P,N. Rastogi 'Time Path of lndian Societal System (1975-80)' and 'The Develop.,

(xi)
COT'ITENTS

Foteword Pteface

v vii
1

1.

Society as a cybernetic system.

2. Societal ciises as the outcome of

fu

its

mal-

16

nclioning contfol cycles,

3.

Methodology

ol investigation.

2g
38 54
71

4. Time

Path of contemporary lndian society (1961-77).

1980.

5. The couise of the system upto

6.
7.

Development of total society systeme. Methodology of societal planning. Some core pioblems of f ndian society

78

8,

limits of theii

solution.

and the
98 105

9. Transfofmation of Indian societal sy6tem.

10, Fundaments
1'1. Conclusion.

of a

steering system for Indian

111

societal system.

't28
130 135

Bibliogiaphy and refefences Post-Script

( xiii )

LIST OF DIAGRAMS 1. Dynamics of societal systems 2. Logical structuie of cybefnetic approach to the study of societies 3. Mapping of I zones into the perloimance zones
of system variables 4. Semantic dimensions
mary.
8
14

27

of

methodology

sum37

The viability
(1961-77)
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

of Indian societal

system
48

Viability measurements ol Indian society

(1975-80) 60
62

Viability spectfa Performance panel

(1970-80)-rt

fof lndian

9ociety
63
66 73 76 86 88 90 97 99

11. 12.
13.

14.
15.
16.

Performance panel tor Indian Society (1970-80)-lV Diagnostic Status of system variables Qualiiy ol societal li{e in four societies Two paths of Brazilian Society Two paths of Nigerian Society A paradigm of planning methodology The pfocess of system transformation Price rise, economic growth and population

growth rate

17.

Relationship betwesn unemployment

economic growth corresponding growth rate of 2,3o/"
growth.

to

population

and

101

18. Relationship between economic growth and public unrest at given levels of population
103

19. Perfofmence panel for Indian society

to

ll1

ffom

yeaf

109 110

20

Viability volumes ol the f ndian Society 21. Regulatory process and information 22. Cybernetic analog of an information and cantrol system 23. lnformation modules and theif linkages for a societal system

112 114
118

(xv)
LIST OF TABLES
1. Control Cycles' Failufes and Crises in
Societal Systems
the
17

2. The Course ol Indian Society (1961-77) 3. Time Series Validation of the Simulated Course
of Indian Society

46

(1961-77)

50

4. Fiequency

Non-viable Vaiiables in the Behaviour of lndian System from 1961 to 1977

1943

of

bg

5. The Cyclical Pattern of Dfoughts

to

1974

Between
58

6.

Simulated Course of lndian Society

to 1e80 to 1980

(PP-f)

{rom

1976 60 1976
61

7. Simulated Course of lndian Society from

(PP-fl)

8. 9.

Simulated Course of Indian Society

to 1980 (PP-lll)
1980

from

1g76

64

Simulated Couise of Indian Society

to

(PP-|V)

fiom

1976 65 6g 77

10. Piedictive Inference in Varying Situations 11, Quality of Life in Four Societies

12. Constraint Position, bility Salience of Societal System Variables

13. Contiol Interactions o{ the Most Salient anc Control lable Vaiiables

(1961-75) Salience and Controlla-

79

84

14. Performance Panel of Indian Society Corresponding to 10001o literacy and 0.9o/o Population
Growth Rate
108

I
Society as a Cybernetic System
Social existence of human beings is meant to facilitate their survival.r Primary constituents of a human society are its basic institutions. . They aie complex social structures that evoive and change for realizing the basic Values like,s ustenance, healih, sex, social ofder, security and orientation. An institution consists of a set of inter-related roles, statuses, norms and rituals. lt is accordingly a sociill subsystem of a total society system. Economy as a societal institution is related to sustenance, Government to order and regulation, Marriage to sex, Family to sociatization, Military to security, Religion (or ldeology) to orientation and so on. The institutions are interrelated as subsystems and together constitute an inclusive societal system.2 Their interrelationship follows from the interrelated nature of man's survival requiiements. The struc. tures for their fulfilment cannot function in isolation. Society is hence seen as a complex dynam.ic system of intefacting institutions. Government exercises a regulatory role on othei institutions in the working of a society as a self-regulating
system.

The course of a system is defined by the changing values of its salient variables. The values of system variables during a given period define the state and behaviour of the system durin,g that period. The course, the behaviour and the states of a

The doncopt

lhls context,

of 'baslc human

needsl was postulated by Mallnowskl ln

The concept of inslitutions here and throughout thls work refete to macro.level primary consfltuents of a societat system like the.Economy, Gov.rnmnt, Education, M ltary and 80 on. Ths refsrent for thcm ls the society as a whole. Smaller soclal struclures like specinc organlzations and soclal pattorns also olten referred lo as soclat Institu onB, are not undsr purvlew here.

Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal System

system.arq the outcomes of

impacts. The pattein of internal interactions is affected by exogenous pei"turbations. These impacts may be in thg foim ol political and military pressufes from other societies, in-flows ol economic and military resources, changes in global trade relations and the weather. The resultant system outputs are given by the time.varying valles o{ its state variables. Salient
state variables in the present context comprise politico-military piessure on the regulator, investible resourcesfor economic develqpment, population growth, economic arowth, unemployment, price rise, administrative effectiveness, education, health' public unrest, ethnic tension (i.e., internal divisiveness), political instability, change ol government, the stature of ruling leadeiship and ihe expectations bl socii. They underlie lhe interactions of societal institutions. They serve {o define together the changing profiles ol societal syslems. The above salient. variables may brie{ly be explicated as below. Population growth rate (pg) refers to the annual increase in the numerical size of a society, Economic growth rate (eg) refers to the peiiodic change in the material resource base 6f a society. Investible resources (ir) represent the quantum

its internal processes and external

resouices deployed lor productive input to the economy. Unemployment, (ue) indicates the proportion of total working force that remains unabsorbed in the society's economic activities. Price iise (pr) is a measure of relative scarcity and economic pressuie on the socii. Education, (ed) indicates the 'level of knowledge, .skills and communication in terms of literacy and stress on research and development. Health (h/) refers to the average expectancy ol life in a social order, Ethnic tension, (el) refers to the disruptive aspect qf internal divisiveness based on racial, cultural and ideological factors. Administrative effectiveness, (ae) refers to the level of corruption and efiiciency in the administrative machinery of a society, Expectations of socii, (es) refers to their evaluation of the ruling leadership of the government with respect to its ability to solve the society's major problems. Leadership lactor (/d/), refers to the stature of the ruling leadership among the masses. Politico-military pressure (pmp) signifies .the impact of external and internal stresses and disturbances on the government of a sobie.ty. Goveinment stability, (GS) refers to the orderly'and iiable operation of political, economic and social processes

of

Society ss a Cybernetic

SYstem

'3

including lhe mode of change of the goveinment. The variables' oiven here are interpreted in terme of their widest implications. Foputution growth rate for example is not a mere statistical quantity, it is a crucial indicant of the interactions of Economy, iamily, Health and Religion. Populations with a hlbh birth rate and high death rate tend to be guided by custom, thoee with a high birth rate and a declining death rate by conscience and those with a low birth rate and low death rate by opinion,l Similarly economic growth is an indicant of a number ol ineti' -besides economy- lis value reJlects the impact of tutions administrative' bffeDtivehess, politico'military pregeufe natuie, and technological research (ed) on the operation of a society's economic Pfocesses.

A Dynamic Piclure of SocietY : These vaiiables serve to delineate a dynamic pictufe of society as an adaptive system of interaeting institutional processes. The institutional processes aie defined by the causal and covariation relalionships ambngdt {he system variables, The variables, the relationships and tho procssr

together piovide a dynamic pictuie of a society as follows : Government as the re41&tlry subsystem of soclety is conlronted with a number of I nlehal and external disturbances and stresses. They stiain its regulating capacity. Togethei they constitute a destabilizing politico-military piessure (prnp) on the system regulator. This piessuie results in'a non' productive diversion of available oconomlc rsouices towafd ih" f"lt requiiements of internal public support and military secuiity. ln capitalist systems, the pressure aleo leads to a lessening and cessation of piivate investment in national economy. Capitalist societies in this context may be interpreted as distributed control systgms as compated to the centially planned economies of the socialist societies' Polilico-military pressure reduces the quantum of investible resources (rr) for productive inPut to the economY.
The available resources permit a potential rate of ecoiomic growth which is, however, subject to a sociely's relative capa-

'

bility

in the utilization of its resources. This capability factor

lhe Lonely Crowd'
Yale Unlvsrglty Pres3, 1953.

Davld Rlesman,

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

teimed administiative effectiveness (ae), is seen to be ,deter_ mined by two mgjor elements : education (edJ ano government 'level stability (GS). The higher the educational and'kno*i"aS; base of a society, the more efticient would its administration be. fimilarly, . governmental stability is vital for the administrative pfocesses to be carrled out effectively. Administrative effec_ ljVenegS acts as a filter on (r,r) to determine the actual rale of conomic growlh (rS). Economic growth may also be affected by the_exogenous impacts of weather, global trade relations and in-flows of economic resources. Economic growth affects unemptoyment (ue) and price rise (p-r) in conjunction with the rqfe of population growth (pg). Rate of populution growth in a society is cumulatively influenced by the average expectancy of life (f/), level of literacy (ed) and the hold of religious tradition (rel). Expansion and improvement of health and education in a so,ciety. depend on the investible resources (rr) allocated to them. Flucalion .in turn influences health and administraiive effective_ nqss bsides serving fo reduce the conservatism and ortho_ to gies. Reli gio us and. ideoto gical :""Iy^ :l.l:'l9i"n .and,srate .ideo tend to adversely affect the internal communal schisms 9rLnog9ll within a social order. Unemployment and..price rise lead \ Ier) Io pubtic unrest (pu) and aggravate the ethnic tension (el) oi lnterndl dlvislveriess within d na{ibnal societv.

ff:il:ll,: expresses or viabitiry (ss) durins any parricular period. !e rartef the relalive capability
-r

fdUtic unrest, ethnic !ension and the politico-military P*.::r.1" on Government determine the total magnitude of qrg::ure '1.:l'ryti9l3t stabitity on Government (fpgl) and determine the
of
si.resses and s{iains i, e., its

.,

srrength. lt affects as :o,yrtlstald ,n: standing.of ruling leadership and the evaluation by :!.1 ot the conduct of their government soc concerning their
society's most pressing problemJ (es).

societal iystem

change of goverlment. Leadership factor explains the situations

IJelce the actual value ot.(ldf) may uury-irorn perioo to period. T!9 elnectations of socii during a period depend on the actual Yfl.ue. o1 ldf and. 'gs during that period, When the vatue of (es) approaches a critically low level, it signals an impending

, " Mass ltanding of a leader is given by a leadership factor Stature of a ruling teader is un"ct"jof ;; p;;i;rr;;;; ol the .government (i.e., _"I:l9m viability) managed ;; ;;;.
(/dfl.

Society as

a Cybternetic

Systim

where societies conlronted with tremendors stresses of *ar, poverty and privation stand up to their problems and survive. Charismatic leaders like Gandhi, Ataturk, Ho Chi Minh and Lenin illustrate the types of situation concerned. On the other hand, the chronic political instability of postwar France and Italy may also be interpreted in terms of a low leadership factor despite their relative affluence as ,developed' industrial
societies.

The Cybernetic Perspective : Cybernetic perspective. helps to further elr.rcidate lhe dynamic picture of a society. The basal concept of cybernetics is control or regulation. A cybernetic system possesses a regulatory subsystem. The regulator changes the course and responses of the system in the diiection of in creasin g.adaptation and/or protection from internal and external disturbancesr Government serves the function of such a regulator for societies.', It regulates the course of variables like unemployment, price rise, pressuie from other societies and inteinal divisiveness etc., in order to maintain system stability and realize system goals, lf any of the regulated variables go ,off' their courses, it would signify a state ot system disturbance i. e., a failure of the regulator. Under such conditions, policy andy'or str,ucture
changes may ensue in the system. Measurement of the".regulatedness (I) of the controlled varjables provides a logi_qal basisJor evaluating ihe overall viability_ (Z) ot a cybern.eiic system, 'the irariables iike unemployment, price Low virlues of risi, public unrest and ethnic tension and high value of the variables like economic growth and administrative effeetiven6si denote their. effective -regulatedness or the viable performance of a 'Viable societal system. system performance hence implies the effective opeiation of its regulator, The viability of a system and the viability of its regulator thus refer to the same intlinsic phenomenon. The overall performance of a system may hence be evaluated in terms of the regulatedness (i.e., performanc6) of the variables controlled by the system regulator. Measurement of the viability of a societal system (Z) thus simultaneously provides a measure ol the stability of its regulator i.e., Government (gs).1
1, llathemaliaal basls {or the computatlon ol Z and GS chapter.

eybernetic Anaiysis oj indian Societai Sisten

ahd operation of the system's control processs. Control processes according to cybernetics operate in the form of negative and positive feedback lodps. A feedback loop is a circular reactive structure that con tinually cycles along its circular path'' The cycling period of a loop is given by the time required to traveise the loop path from a given variable through other connected variables back to the same variable. A negative loop is oriented toward maintaining stability and/or balance by negating and reducing the deviations that disturb this stability and balance. A positive loop on the other hand sefves to amplily the deviations, ft thereby creates cumulative

Cybernetic perspective further serves

to

define

the

natufe

growth or decline in its successive cycles. Cybernetic analysis hence interprets the internal processes of a self-regulating system in terms of a set of interaiting feedback cycles. lt requires the system vaiiables to be linked togetlrer in a multi-cyclical pattern. Their time varying values i. e,, change of system states are then seen as the outcome of the endogenous cyclical p,ocesses of interaction and the exogenous impacts on the system variables, The variables and processes of a societal system are also organizable in a similar multi-cycle paltbrn. This follows from {he nature of society as a cybernetic system. Societal processes and variables are seen to be organized in a'set of eleven interacting positive feedback cycles. Their overall pattern of intdfaction is depicted in lhe dia!ram number
one.

The fact ol all the societal control cycles being positive.is highly significant. They point to the inhere.nt orientation of societaf systems lowards growth and development. lt is when the growth inducing positive.cycles fail to attain their regulatory obJectives that one finds a sscietal system'beset with p.ft"rs and crises. The failure and mal-functioning of the control cyclos may be due to the endogenous and/oi exogenous factors.
Each of the,e{even societal cycles as lollows
:

is

discussed one by one

Control Gyctes of a Socieial System i , Cl-tclg I consists , of . Politico-military piessure (pmp), lnvestible' reso urces (i/), Economic growth (eg), Unemployment

Society as a Cybernelic SYstem

and price rise (ue, pr), Public unrest and Et[nic tension (pu, ell ' 'This cycle shows that politico-military pressure results lrom the impact oi other societies and the internal problems ol unfest and divisiveness (pu, et). lt reduces the level of inveslible resources (ir) for productive input to the economy. The higher thq pmp prcssurc, the lower the quantum of available resources fo-t1 productive investment. The level of resources (rr) along withl administrative effectiveness (ae) determines the level ol actual

economic growth (eg). The latter is also affected by a humberi, of random exogenous factors. lmpact of weather on agricultural production and of terms of trade on national income is quitq marked. Othei exogenous factois may affect eg by incrpasing: investible resources (lr) and national product through eiternal investment and commodity aid. Such factors come within lhQ iange of exogenous variable, 'Economic relations- with othe.r societies'. Rates of economic 'growth and population grow{h (pg) determine the level o{ Unemployment and Piice rise' (ue, pr) during a given period. Economic growth reduces unm-" ployment and price rise; populalion growth. increases them' The magnitudes oi unemployment and price. rise detefmine the levels of Public uniest (pu) and Ethnic tension (et).. lnteinal divisiveness within a society (et) is also affected. by it-s unrest and ethniq t'ristoty una religion(s) (or ideologies)' Public politico-militarv pressuie alons an endogenous i;;;1.; affect tie

dimehsion.Theexogenousdimensionotpmpisgivenbythe -ir',!ci;le iJ complete atthis point' f,iiill s-"li.tib'di . ,. positive self-reinforcing cycle' It..indicates that in a It is a co.ntinuously.increasing' malfunctioni'ng mode, pmp would !o on period unless there is reduction in the internal cvJling

"il"if".rl uid1o,

temporarilyt In its "*t"*ul and military inputs may help to reduce it probressive intended regulatory.oae, it'"'cycte would !ea! jo "a pmp l".r"utu oi pmp- alter each iycling period' Decrease of eg in fu and *"rfJ u" associated with correiponding increases same cycHtl*' and reduction s in ue, pr, pu and et duiing the and mode i'e" a 'non' ;;;.;.-i; its stagnation variables and non-growth thelr related .l'ob1:t:.i decllne situation, all the with minor' would continue to persist at their current levels conversion the variations. Such a state ol affairs would imply a nesative cvcle' ;i';;;;iti*;tii"lnto on glvernmnt (tpd' Cvcle ll consists of total .pr.eqslr19. e=ffectiveness (ae)' Government stability titl,"'AaiittiJtiutiu"

pressures from other societies' External economic

Cybernetic Analysis oj Iniitan Societoi System

9:

n b
86, E-

_o

e. 5 tv o

ti
lx;

t?

/l

.\-.-.

Society as a Cybernetic $ystent

Economic giowth (eg), Pu blic unrest and Ethnic tehsion (pu, et) and Politico-military pressure (pmp). lt includes cycle I in its
boundarv.

Cycle ll shows that total pressure on government (fpg) is determined by pu, et and pmp. The magnitude of this pressure (fpg) determines the govelnment stability (gs). Government stability along with education (ed) determines administrative

fluences (eg), The remainder part of this cycle proqeeds as in the Cycle l. lt is also a positive feedback cycle. In its intended regulatoiy role, it seeks to increase gs with each cycling. period through increases in ae and eg and decrease of fpg. In its malfunctioning mode, the cycle would lead to a worsening of administrative ineffec.tiveness (ae) and economic situation (eg, ue, pr) brought about by an increasing political instability. (pu, et, pmp, fpg and gs). Cycle lll relates together Government stability (gs), Leadership factor (ldf) and Expectations of socii (es). lt shows that /df is determined by contemporary .history (i.e., current events) and the status ol government stability (gs.) lt affects in turn the gs i.e., a high stature ruling leadership leads to a higher evaluation by the citizens of their government and vice versa. Higher value of es then influences the stability of the government accordingly. Higher and lower values of any loop variable here affect its consequent variable in.{he same manner.. . This cltc.le is also a self'reinlorcing positive cycle. Cycle lV shows a similar mutually reinforcing relationship between gs and es. Higher the government stability, greatef the expectations of socii and viae versa.

effectiveness (ae). Administrative effectiveness (ae) then in-

(ed), Ad,ministrative effectiveness (ae) Economic growth (eg), Unempf oyment and Pricei'riide.(ue, pr), Public unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, et) and Po litico-military pressure (pmp). The cycle V shows that higher investible resources lor education affect the level of knowledge and skills (ed) of the citizenry leading among other things to a highei level of ae, Higher ae then leads to higher ed and thence to lower ae, fi ' pu, et and, pmp, l;owei pmp serves to increase the level

Cycle

consists

of Investible

resources (ft), Education

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal Systettt 10 ol ir. fn its properly operating mode, this cycle seeks to

continually increase

ir

and eg via ed and

ae,

Cycle Vl consists of Education (ed), Population growth (pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue, prl, Public unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, et), Politico-militiiry pressure (pmp) and Investible resources (rr). This cycle shows that higher investible resoufces for education lead to higher educational leve! of the citizenry which in turn leads to the reduction of population growth rate, Reduced pg rate goes to reduce pr and ue which in turn, reduce pu, ef and pmp. Lower pmp level increases the level of I'r and thence leads to moie iesources for, ed. Resultant highei levels of ed then Iead to further decline of pg fate and pmp level. The cycle thus continually opeiates to fegulate pg through ed via ir in a self-sustaining and progiessive manner. Strength ol religious beliels (rel) may however adversely affect the regulation of pg in some societies'
Cycle Vll consists of Education (ed), lmpact of new and powrful technologies; Economic growth , (eg)' Unemployment and Price rise (ue, pr), Public uniest and Ethnic tension (pu, et), Politico-mif itary pressuie (pmp) and Investibles resources (ir).

This cycle shows that investments in education (reseafch and developmental work) may lead to the creation ol new and powerful technology (ies). The impact of such new technology iies) on economic growth would be quite marked and it'would thence aflect ue, , pu, et and pmp successively, reoultihg in the growth of ir lor furthei investments in R. & D' lt is a selfexciting positive loop. The relationship between investment in education (R & D), and the emergence of powerful new technologies is however of a random and contingent nature' Scientific and technological break-thioughs are rare occurrences.

consists af Education (ed), Health (h/), Population growth (pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue' pr)i Public pressure unrest and Elhnic tension (pu, et) t Politico-mllitary (lr). This cycle shows that (pmp) and Investible resources influences the health of citlzens' Hoalth-co,n9cioutl
Cycle

Vlll

"Oroitlon

Saciety as aCYbernetic

SYstent
lheir health standaids

lt
and

and well-infoimed cilizens impiove

of tamity sizes as a mattr o{ course' The iesultant impact growth impro-ves the system education and health on population cycle is in a setf-sustaining manner, The operation - of this
similar to that of the Vl cYcle.

health

care, Citizens educated

in health matters limlt lheir

Cycle lX consists of Investible resource (rr)' Health popufaiion growth (pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue' p/)'

(h/)'

Pulfic unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, etl and Politico-military

pressuie (PmP)'

lThis cycle shows the influence of investible resources (lr) onthefami|yplanningandhea|thcarefaci|itiesforthecitizens. many Healthy citizens with high expectancy of life do not desire children as the expeiience of the ileveloped societies shows ;;;i;; f", large families is related to the high ra{es of infant lot expectancy of liie' With improvements in mortality "nd nuirition, sanitation and health care for the lamily' lhe reduction in pg toilowt in due couise, The operation of this cycle is similar to that of the Vlll'
consists of Education (ed), Religio.n (rel)' Public Ethnic tension (pu, et), Politico-military pressure unrest and shows lhe i;;;t ;J lnvestible ,.soui."" (ir)' This cvclethe citizens' on religion and/or ideolo.gy of irpilt of education drives to Education here signifies the sustained and intensive their attitudes and beliefs 'reeducate' the socii i. e., change in the interest of prescribed national goals' The resqltant national religion and/or ideology would then serve as a socially (et)' lt unilying lactor in reducing the intetnai divisiveness ground ot need to bear with *oriU it"o help lessen pu on the couiage the national economic difficulties' lt would thereby thence pefmit ;;;;-4" G.t"n' th" pmp, increase the I'r .and drives thrpugh educative lurther investments in tire sustained the mass media of communication' Such a pattern has 'been characleristic of the communist societies'' The same obiective ;;;d"" been accomplished by the charismatic leaders through iil'.ir-'p"ttonul efforts' In th; highlv advanced.so:ielies',.!ho ioi" oi eOucatlon in shaping the feligious (or ideological) oriniuilntonuru. ieducing internal divisiveness has been a long procss' Education in these societies conduces
Cycle

"uoiution.tv

t2

Cybernetic Anaiysis o/ Iniitan Soci:etal Sysiehi

towards the reflective patriotism of the citizens. In the less devdloped societies, education's rore in the pr"sent context ries in creating an instinctive patriotism and thereb'v i"Jr.irs i"i"rral
schisms. Cycle Xl consists of Education (ed), Religion (rel), popu_ lation growth (pg), Unemployment and price risi (ue, pr), public unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, et), politico_military pressure (pmpl, and Investible resources (f). The cycle shows the progressive impact of education on religion so that it ceases to be a constraint on the adoption of lamily planning by the citizenry. At a more devetoped level the changes in religious outlook induced by education woull s6rve to facilitate the iegulation of poputition growth. The int'ended operation of this roop is simirar to the'X *iil., fl.," oirurence that religion here affects pg instead of pu and et.

The Rationale of the Cybernelic Approach .:. Cybernetically, Ihe phenomena of Indian society Are seen to be the outcome of th'e same invariant processes tt'at govein the working of other societal .systems. Specific details of phenomena in terms of persons, sjtu.a.tlons, history ana cumii iiy differ from socie.ty to society..But {herr occurren ce within u rpeCii, pe.rtod qf time, the logic of -.thel production, thg pattern. df-iiri, Uariatien and thg impact of their occurrcnce an .govetnment stabrit ity can be undelstood for different societies, Such an un.der:_ stahding and explanation are obtained in terms of the piinciples and,concepts applicable to societies asa specific ;liss;;
systems. High values of ethnic tension (el) in a society for 6xampl denote a sitdation of serious interhar disturbances engendbied by its internal cleavages and divisiveness. Concreitb ,pienore_

nal manifeitation of el would however aineiirom society to soCiety. In Ffance, it would be evidenced in the form ol grtw_ ing sectarian differences. ln Nigeria it would be observed as internecine tribal conflict. In India, it would take the form of casteist, communal, linguistic and regional distuibances, Inter_ pretation, understanding and predi,ction of such, events and aituations are obtained in terms of .invariant non-subjective rpocesses. The analysis is hdwever direcfly relatable io real

lefigit ot a Cybertryticsyttem :

13

woql{ happenings and as such open to disconfirmation. A high value of ef, during periods ol relative peace and vice versa in any society would for example invalidate the model and its under_ lyin g premises.
Study of society as a cybefnetic system in fact leads to disconfirmable inference regarding all the variables of its multicycle structure. The model can be simulated both backward and forward in time. System simulation replicates the operation of actual system processes within a model. lt yields as output the time varying course of system variables. The latter may then be compared with the relevant data and information from the concerned periods. Convergence between the computed values of system viability (Z) and the simulation value ol government stability (gs) provides another source of model validation. The value of z and gs are also directly testable with refefence to the phenomena of political stability, orderliness of political processes and the nature and mode of a change of government,l

The basic rationale of cybernetic approach is provided by complementary concepts of ,control' and ,reg u lated nessi, Government.is the control subsystem of society. The viability gr strength of a society depends on the effective regulation of ifs state variables. Their proper regulatedness denotes the viable perlormance of the societal institutions .i.e., how far afe they meeting the basic survival values of human beings. The dynamics of internal system processes are also patterned after the operation of control processes i.e., the inteiacting cycles of feedback loops. The whole pattern is oriented aiound the processes thdf shape antl are shaped by the stability (oi viability) of the system regulator i,e., the goveinment. Their Simulation generates the values,of the system varibles that can hE co.nf rmed with reference to the the past, present and future periods: , The overall logical structure of the cybernetic study of Societies as envisaged hero is summarized in diagram number

tie

two.

The methodological iealization of the cybernetic approach for the measuiement of the variables and their i.egulatedness or viability (I). lt also iequifes the devilopment
ljowever calls

Ses Third chaptor,

I4

Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societal System

Baslc survival Volues Humon Beings

Instirutlons ot
a.

ol

'--)

soeietal systcm

with Government
as Rogulat9l

-T ./

Oths, socistiss

J/
?
I

/ -T?
I

Random Faclorg

Interactiod'df lnstitr,lionE

-t

Salient P6rtormanc Variables

*
Patte.n ol SYstem Dynamics

Multi-looP

System

Viabiliry(Z)

Syslcm Viabitily (c S)
and

etrodrclive

Politicsl Stabiliry Govirnment Change

Economic Growth Price Ris . UnemploYment Public Unrsst Ethnic Tension Administrstive Eff8ctive.ress Expecllions of Socii Politico. militarY
Pressuae

Conf

irmation and

Predictive Infsrnce

Logical struclure ol .Cvbelnetic aPProach, lo the studv ot Societies.

Di8grm Number Two

Viability (l) Spedror

Society as a CYberne:ic

SYstem

15

ol an algoiithm fof simulating the complex multiloop dynamic structure ol the system. These and related methodological issues are dealt with in ihe third chaptef' ln the next chapter we however first trace the inter-relationships between the ciisss and malaise besetting a society and the malfunctioning of its
internal control cYcles,

l8

Cybcrnetic Analysis

oflndian Societal System

Table

Contd.

levels of
giowth and
eco nom y.

economic
p

rod

investment in
Cycle ll

ctive

the

To in

increase gs, ae and eg and decrease

ue, pr, put

et, and tpg

p ro g

ressive

levels of political instability, administrative inefticiency,

unemployment, inflation and internal dissonance; declining levels of economic growth.

Persisting and rising

manner.

Cycle lll

To

progressively in-

crease gs,

ldf, and

es

in a correlated manner.
progressively To increase gs and s, in an interrelated
manner.

Persisting and gfowing political instability; declinin g stature of the

ru lin

leadership and

low public morale.

Cycle lV

Low morale citizens and

political c haos.

of

the growing

Cycle V

To

and

increase ir, ed, ae, eg and decrease ue, pr, pu, et and pmp

resources, high i;literacy, weak and inefficient administration. low economic growth, rising

Lack of

investible

in a cumulative
ner.

man-

unemployment

and

Cycle

Vl

progiessively To increase ir and ed and decrease pg, ue, pr,

pu,

et

and pmp.

prices, internal sc his r-,rs and persisting poiiticomilitary tensions with other societies. Lack of investible reso u rces, educational backwardness, increasing po pulation, persisting unemployment, inflation,

internal schisms
external tensions,

and

Societal Crises as the outcome of its Mafunctioning Control Cycles lQ

Table Cycle

Contd.

Vll To promote eg
innovative technologies and thence red uce ue, pr, pu, et and pmp.

through new

rdness,

low economic growth and high levels of

unemployment, inflation and internal and external political problems.

Technological backwa-

Cycle Vlf

To increase ir, ed and h/ and decrease pg,

Lack

of

investible

re-

ue, pr, pu,

el

and

pmp,

sources, high illiteiacy, low expectancy of life, growing population and

growing economic, social and political difficultles,

Cycfe

lX

To increase ir, and hl and decrease pg, ue, pr, pu, et and pmp in a cumulative pattern.

Lack ol investible resources, highly inadequate

and poor lacilities fof health care, laige grow-

ing population, persisting economic, social and political predicaments. Cycle X

national integration (rel,) and r'r and reduce pu, et and pmp in an interrelat'ed manner.

To increase ed,

High illiteracy,
divisive role

(s)

lack of investible veness and

and/or

of

highlj
res-'

religion ideologies;

ources, growing publii unrest, internal divisipolitico-

militafy pressure.
Cycle Xl

To reduce pg, ueril, pu, et and pmp and increase fi, ed and the religion's (or ideology's) role in
reducing pg,

llliterate and

orthodox

population, high rate oi population growth and growing economic, political and internal diffic ulties of a society.

20

Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal Syitem

Actual and potential crises situations in a social order are the outcome of the operation and interaction of these eleven cycles,. Developed and underdeveloped systems however show dissimilarities in the malfunotioning of their respective control cycles, ln the developed systems only the first and tho second cycles usually malfunction especially when they face persisting politico-military pressure from other societies. Cycles lll and lV there usually operate at ordinary regulatory levels. Developed systems characteristically lack charismatic leadership. lt leads to the relatively average values oJ /d/and es variables theie. On the other hand, they are seen io be particulary strong in the cycles V, Vl Vll, Vlll, lX, X and Xl. These cycles operate at

effective to very effective regulatory levels in the developed systems. Very low values of pg and very high values of ed and h/ reflect this aspect of their strength and viabiliiy. These cycles serve to contain and rectify the malfunctioning of the I and ll cycles in these systems. They protect the developed systems against the ::athology ol political instability. Underdeveloped societal systems on the other hand are weak in almost all of their control cycles. In societies with charismatic leadership however, the llland lV cycles operate in a relatively more viable manner. They help to prevent the pathology of political instability there. Cycles VI to Xl are characteristically weak in the underdeveloped systems. This weakness is reflected in the low values of their ed, hl and ae and the hiErh vafues of pg, rel and et. ln u n derdeu,elope.:/ syslems lacking the advantage of higher Idf, political instability becomes apersistent phenomenon, Acutely malfunctioning cycles would however tend to degrade the higher level cycles lll and lV to their own low levels. Such has been seen to be the case in sevtiral weak systems with charismatic leaderships. Nkrumah of Ghana, Sukarno of Indonesia, Mujib of Bangla Desh and Allende of Chile illustrate this type o{ situation in weak societal systems. Weak systems become more vulnerable to externally induced aubversion and internal stresses. ?t follows from the Wiener's Law of the Entrainment or Matching of Frequencies according to which the parts of a dynamic system tend to lunction at a matching pace. lf most of the cycles are ineffective (or effective), the remaining effective (or ineffective) ones would tend to go down (or come up) to the level of the majority of the
CYcles'

Socieni irises as tie outcome of

its Malfunctiontng

Control Cyctes 2l

of control cycles within a societal and internal disturbing factors' lmportant factors disrupting the internal growth processes in the Indian system and othei national societies, have been
The pr,oper operation
system is disrupted by external observed to be as follows
:

(i)

Severe economic, military and political piessures from other national societies and/or. severe internal political stresses, These have led to a diversion of scarce fesou rces toward unproductive channels, A.dverse weather conditions leading to

(ii)

large losses in
marked reduc'

agricultural production and thence to tion of economic growth'

(iii) High population growth

of

rate aggravating

the problems

unem ployment and inflation.

(iV) Low

level of administrative effectiveness leading to unwanted constraint on the achievable levels of economic growth.

When these disruptive factors intensify individually and/or collectively, they depress, distort and even reverse the operation of a system's basic growth processes. They engender a growing malaise in a society that may range from distressing poveity and unemployment to acute civil unrest and violent chaos' The increasing strain on the regulatory capability of the government, renders it increasin gly unstable.
The time path of Indian society and the malaise observed in its working are directly related to above disruptive factors' Its problems started intensifying from 1954 when Pakistan joined USA sponsored military alliances and increased the level of pmp on lndia. Another source of prnp which cumulated the stress from Pakistan, appeared in 1961-62 in the context of' Chinese aggression on India. Confrontation with Pakistan and China, Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971 and the influx of ten million iefugees in 1971 were other negative developments. Adveise weather conditions leading to marked reduction in agricultural production have engendered recurring crises, High population growth and low productivity on account of illiteracy and administiative inefficiency have been other

,t

'I

Cybemetic Analysis of Indtan Societal Systen

persisting {actois of disturbance, All o{ them have shaped and enlarged the crisis situations of Indian society. The crises have variously bben manifested as serious shortages of food, fuel and power, rising inflation'and unemployment, parochial movements and riots, student unrest, labour problems; corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy and growing poverty of the masses. Behind these disparate and apparently unrelated crisis situations, lie the malfunctioning control cycles of a societal system and their disruption by the disturbing factors, Fourth chapter examines the timepath ol the lndian system from 1961 to 1975. System's simulated behaviour reflects the countinuing failure of its internal circulatory control mechanisms. In the next chapter we outline the methodological apparatus underlying the present work. It explicates the concept of system viability, the regulatedness of system variables, the nature of system simulation algorithm and the dimensions of predictive inlerence,

.'

Methodology of I nvestigation
based on cybernetics. The following issues are
briefly
:

The methodology of investigation developed here

is also covered

(i) Measurement of viability of system variables ())' (ii) Computation of system viability (Z)' (iii) Estimation procedure for initial values of system variables and
Nature of the algorithm foi system simulation' Measufement Schema {or Viability (l) Estimation :

(iv)

'regulatedness'' lt is related to level of performance. The value of a varlable depicts a certain level and aspect of system performance' Higher and lower levels of performance accordingly measure the varying degrees of regulatedness. Performance or regulatedness of a variable hence depicts an aspect of system viability' Viability iefeis to the capacity of a system to survive destabilizing stressThe central concept

heie

is

es and d isturbances'
The concept of viability (l) of a system variable piovides the basis lor a higher ordef of measufement. Viability may be poles are zero deemed to range along a continuum whose two and one. The higher level of measuiement is then accomplished by mapping the performance limits to the viability limits' Thls *ouid fot. example, then enable one to say that if the economlc growth rate is 13o/o or more, its viability measure is one or if the growth rate is 3.5o/o or over' its Y value is zro'

iopulation

measurement leads to the idea of viabillty depending upon the relative closeness of a I segments/zones value to either of the two poles, These zoneo are deflned by

This logic

of

24

Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societai System

the equi-distant points on both sides of the mid-point boundary of ,l:0,5, lt {ollows that the zone defined by 0.75_1.00 would indicate maximum viability and the one defined by 0.0_ 0,25 would show a highly disturbed state of a very low level of regulatedness and performance. These segmental i limits are again mapped into a performance continuum {o yield a linear or non-linear ielationship. This process of mapping the segmental limits (as distinct from the terminar rimits) is based on the intefpretation of available data from different societies. Thus to take the example of economic groyvth, the segmental boundaries are qive.1 b.V 0%10.5%,3%,9%, and 13.Sol". They comprise besides lhe higher and lower observed rates of growth, the intefmediate situation classes observed in difieient societies. simirarry foi population giowth, i-zones are defined by 0%, 0.Eo/.,2,1o/o,Bo/o and 3.5%, Here the higher viability segments represent the demogra_ phic situation in industriaily advanced societies and the rower ones in African, Asian and Latin American societies. variabres like politico-m ilitary pressule, pubric unrest ancr ethnic tension are also measured in an analogous manner. Theoretically maxi_ mum values ol pmp, pu and et correspond to minimum vlability values i.e,,\:0 and vice versa. Reverse would be the case for variables like ae, es, gs and ldf. Here the theoretically maximum and minimum scale values would coincide with the maximum and minimum limits of the viability continuum. The mapping of scale values of the qualitative variables .into corresponding i-segments is an intricate issue. lt is also closely linked with the issue of estimating the initiar varues of these variables for a given period. Estimation of initiar varues is discussed in the next section. The following procedure .helps to resolve the mapping problem.

'.

(i) (ii) ,. (iii) r,,.. ,

With reference to a given variable, hypothesize the extreme types of situations corresponding to the 0 and 1 extremities of the variable.
Identify the relevant types of situations (in different societies across time and space) between the two
hypothesized extremes. Order these situatiorrs according sevefity of intensity.

to

their increasing

Iuiethodot

gy aj

Inv estigatiorr

2S

(iv) (v)
(vi) (vii)
The

Arrange the situations so ordered

classes.

in a

set of four

Define the terminal characteristics of each situation class i.e., where it begins and leaves off. Map these situation classes into the four zones of the viability continuum.

Associate a given situation under study with such a class and place it within a I zone.
ch

and classification of a situation is to the state of affairs over a year. An year is the time unit of estimation and simulation. Accordingly the transient events are to be distinguished from more durable
aracterization
be made with reference to

aspects oJ a given situation over the period.

This procedure may be briefly illustrated with reference to the politico-m ilitary pressure variable. Politico-m ilitary pressure refers to the destabilizing pressure exerted on a government by its internal and/or external enemies, A hypothetical extreme here would be a complete absence of internal opposition and external military menace, The other extreme would be a full scale civil war or an all out war with another society. These two extremes of minimum and maximum pressure would correspond to the.\ values of one and zero respectively. The situation classes and the tr segments may briefly be specified as below :

1.

Low level oJ internal opposition and dissent along the internal dimension. Normal state relations with other societies along the external dimension.

(pmp zone:0.0-0'25;

zone:1.0-0.75)

2.

Increasingly militant politics of opposition by oiganized groups (political parties, labour, students, ethnic groups) and insurgency on a substantive level (internal dimension), Antagonistic state relations with other societies rangin g from polemics to military confrontation, border incidents, and a level of military preparedness to meet the contingency of large scald military operations at short notice (external dimens-.
ion s) '

(pmp zone:0.25-0.5;,1 zone:0.75-0.5),

26 3.

Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societai Systen

Widespread insurgency and/oi civil waf, disiuptive opposition activity capable of paralyzing the economy and administration (internal dimension). Active and pervasive military confrontation constituting an imper_ ative threat to national surviva!, limited but pfotracted military co nflicts (external dimension).

4.

zone:0.5-0.25) Full scale civil war with or without external military involvement (internal dimension). Full scale military conflict with one or more enemy nations (external
d

(pmp zone:0.5-0,75 ;

imensio n).

zone:0,25-0.0) Hjgher of the two values along internal and external dimensions would be selected for computation and situation
description
pu rposes.

(pmp zone:$.75-1.0 ;

The measurement schema discussed so, fai may

represented and summarized in the following manner:

be

Performance values corresponding to mid-point segments may be interpreted as the quantization levels of the variables, Sampling interval of the quantization levels is then given by the 0.25 I on the viability continuum of 0.0 ) to 1.0 I points.

Viabiiity Continuum

:Zone of
ble

conditions l(i)
0.0 disruption of regula-->

Zone of

chaotic

Zone of disturbed condition s

ance, lll

perfoim-

via-

Zone of maximally viable performance

il (r)
0.25 poor regu-

(r) *
0.75

rv

(t)

*
1.0

lation

0.5 high level

highest
ness.

->

of regula--->
ted ness,

level of regulated-

torY

process

pmp--

'f rv(,1) + ilt (l)

0.0
0,5

il (l)
0,75

t(l)
1.0

Meftodology oj Investigation

27

?Q-:--

* l(r)
0.0 0.25

il (l)
0.5

llr

(r)

*
0,75

lv

(r) (r)

"-

1.0

eg--

*
0.0

i(^)
0.5%

il (i

ilf (l)
3% e%

tv

% pu-* rv(l) 0,0

and so
qn..

13.5%

*
0.25

lll (l)
0.5

il (^)
0.75

I (l)
1.0

Diagram No.3

Mapping of

zones

into the

petfdlmance zones of

system vatiables.
The schema shows the mapping of the performance zone of vafiables into the corfesponding zones of a viability continuum, Any given value of a system variable may be conveited into its viability (l) measure by'a mapping of the two scales of measurement. Conversely a given ,\ value of any variable may be tianslated into its perfoimance value.
Computation of system Viability (Z) I Viability of the system as a whole during a given pefiod be computed from the viability estimates of its performance may

vectors (state variables). The mathematical expression for computing the value of system viability (Z) is given as below:

Z-

n'. , / E lful/N ;:1 | 'l

Where fu is the viability measure of the vector 6 i:1, 2,,.,.,...., n and N is the total number of performance vectois regulated bY the system control.

18'

Cybernuic Anaiysis of

ltiian

Societal Systeni
?

system satisfy the

Let the State variables (vectors) Xr, xs,____, x6 of

eq uation s,

variables and U is the control may then be represented by

xi - f; (X, U); i : 1,2,--.-, .. Where X is an n-dimensional vector of

vector. System state

system,s state at time t

t^o ut

"' i,

xn

if dt is discrete.

Now in Z computation, the period under consideration is one as one has data for. The i, state variables over a one year period are given by the values of eg, ae, N, ue,--.-*et etc ; in terms of their annual given and computed estimates.

year. ft can potentially be as small

Hence state of the system

at I is given by,
n.

Zt : lxr dt,,i - 1,2.__*_,

Substituting the empirical values of the state variables and converting them into their viability estimates ir, we have,

z,: jtl'l dt,orzl: ! t:'l

variables involved, we g'et

l^, 't '

1

Normalizing the expression

n

in terms of the number

of

> lr, l Ztrt r,:1 t .'t/ Where N is the total number of the regulated state variables. and I is equal to one year.
The regulator ol a self-regula\ing ,system has to regulate the course of its basic performance variables i.e., keep them 'yvithin their appointed rimits. If any of them ciosse' critical thresholds, a state:of system instability is signified. Th" ;ui;; and magnitude ot instability is direcfly relateJ to the n;;be;--;;

Zt:

Methodology of

Investigation

29

variables ciossing their thresholds and the extent of their departufe from their appointed limits. In the present context, if the course of any vilriable enters the | (,\) segment of (0.0-0.25)' a state of the political and/or government instability would ensue. Such a state of instability engenders major policy and struc{ure changes in the regulator i,e., the government. The variables whose entry in the | (l) segment produces such a destabilizing result are the ones that enter into Z computation. They are pmp, ae, eg, ae, , pu, et and Idf' Their regulatedness directly and immediately affects the stability of the regulator i.e., the government. Education (ed) and population growth (pg) are not diiectly related to government and/oi political stability. Expectations ol socii (es) are the resultant of government stability (gs) and leadership tactor (ldf). This variable is not directly regulatable by the government though it affects .the government stability directly and inrmediately. The value of N in Z computation therefore comes out to be eight. Estimation of the Initial Values: For simulating the system or com puting its viability (Z), the initial values of system variables and their viability need to be estimated. Values of eg, pg, ed, ue, and pr can be estimated from the published statistical data. Qualitative variables like pmp, pu, ae and el howevcr belong to : dilferent category. Their estimation involves the same issues as those encountered in viability estimation. The procedure outlined there needs to be supplemented by the following two additional step.s : (viii) A{ter placing the situation within a tr zone or its corresponding perlon:rance zone, select a midpoint value between the segment boundaries as a

(ix)

tenatative estimate. Determine the final estimate according to a method of successive averages and/or maximum likelihood

estlmationr in the light of the best available ihformation to reduce placement uncertainty.
1 For a dlscuselon of maximum llkellhood estimatloni see, B. Gelbaum & ,J. March, Mathematics for the Social and Eehavioural Sclencts, W.B.
Saunders Co. Phlladslphia, 1969r Pp 23il.40'

30

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal

Systn

procedure ieduces the estirnation error of parametefs exponentially in accordance with the following expression 1:

The above

Pn:Pl

n-1
u

Here Pn is the error probability after n successive averages or approximations, P1 is the initial error probability corresponding to the first midpoint segment estimate and a is the fraction by which the error probability is reduced after each successive
estim ate,

In the situation discussed here, aftef a variable has been placed in a segment, the first mid point average may have a maximum error of+0,125 in a range of 0,25, This would connote an initial maximum error probability of 50o/o i.e,, Pl :0.5. Each successive average would reduce the error by 0.062, 0,091 and 0.0155 segmental points i.e,, corr6sponding to maximum error probabilities of
25o/o, 12.51o and6.25o/o

respectively i.e,, a

2-1

:0.25,

a4-1:0.0625, This would mean a maximum error probability alter second, third and fourth estimates as
0.125 and under:

u3-1:

pz:
P3: P4:

(0.50) (0.25)

:9.125

(0.50) (0.25) (0.125)

:0.015

(0.50) (0.25) (0.125) (0.0625)

0.000s8:0,001

They may be either positive or negative and in a process of summation it is likely that some of them may cancel out each other in the aggregate value.

The simulation algorithm however makes the estimation of of many variables unnecessary' This is because the algorithm itsell generates the values of many systems variables. The

Thls functlon is based on

tha error rcsponse probabllity reductlon of

fearning thoory. See for example, Rlchard Atkison et al. An lntroduction to Mathematical Learning Theory,,John Wilsy; Neiv Yoiki 1965, Pp. 16.16,

Methoilology

of

Investigation

3l

values

ol only pmp, et, ldf, and gs (for the preceding period) need to be estimated. Variables pg and ed are usually available from published data. The rest of these are generated by

the algorithm. Generated values of the relevant eight variables may then also be used in Z computation.

Nature of the System Simulation Algorithm : Simulation of a system replicates the operation of intefnal system processes within a model. The nature, direction and pattern ol internal system processes and exogenous impacts on the system are here given in the diagram of system dynamicsr. Simulation model reproduces the course of a system over a given period, The simulated course provides an unambiguous basis for verifying the past, present and future situations in a society. The situations in the present context are defined by the changing values of the system variables, For some variables i.e., economic growth, price rise, unemployment, political instability and change of government, the confirmation is direct. Others like politico-m ilitary pressure, public unrest and ethnic tension are confirmable indirectly. The indirect confirmations take the form of a consistency of variation in the values of the concerned variables. Higher and lower values of pu and ef are for example directly relatable to the greater and lesser number of cases and incidents observed duiing the period concerned. Another form of indiiect confirmation is the contribution they make to tho values of the variables like gs and es. The values of theso two variables aie diiectly reflected in the modes of political instability and government change. Convergence between the computed value of Z and the value of GS determined by the algorithm serves as anothei mode of validatio n.
The algorithm for simulating the behaviour of a societal system is also based on cybernetics. lts theoretical basis is provided by Wiener's principle of entrainment of fiequencies. According to this principle, the constituent paits of a dynamic system work synchionously so thit their frequencies match one

Dlagram number one in chapter one,

JZ

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

another.l In postulating this mechanism, Wienerwas guided by . the case of electric power gcnerating system in which through
negative feedback, a number of alternators can maintain a sharo frequency despite variations ol load. The {requencies pull one another together or "attract" such that slow alternators are speeded up and fast ones slowed down. He noted entrainment

in very diverse situations e.9., the flashing of fireflies in unison, the maintenance of crystalline {rom in snowflakes, the lumping in the periods of asteroids, the diurnal rhythm in many animals etc. lts implications for organizational behaviour have also been examined,: In the context of the dynamic system under study here, the principle applies in an analogous manner. lt implies that in their dynamic operation, the institutional processes are functioning together at a matching and compatible
pace.

The matching pace of processes here means the matching of variables in the arcs of the feedback loops. This matching of variables within an arc implies a matching of their co-variation over the viability continuum i.e., their i values are convergent over the period of their co-variation. Such a convergence between the I values of the two variables leads to a corresponding convergence between their performance values, Their respective perform ance values correspond to their common r{ measure. This {ollows from the preceding measurement schema of mapping the performance zones of the system variables into the zones of a viability continuum. In this way, the successive matching of the I frequencies of loop variables leads to the generation of their performance value for a given simulation period.

The simulation algorithm is based on the Wiener's law as discussed above. lt governs the sequential determination of
1 Norbert Wienet, Nonlinear Problemsin Random Theory, Lecture 8, The MIT Press, Cambrldge, Mass., 1958. Also 'The Mathematics of SellOrganizlng Systems' in Recent Developments in lnformation & Declsion Processes, eds. R, Machol & P. Gray, Mac Millan & Co,, New 'York, 1962
p, 14.

2 P.N. Rastogi

CybeneticaVol., Xll, No. 1' 1969.

'A

Cybernetic Approach

to

Organization Effectlvcnss,

Methoilology of

Investigatlon I
ol

31

the values ol

system variables. An estimated value of the pmp acts as an exogenous lorcing function on the multi-loop pmp then deteiclosed system of a society. The value of tu. The I value of lr and ae then mines the matching value value for eg which however may also be pfoduce a matching by the external impadts. The final ,\ value for eg along affected value for ue and pr, with that of pg determines the compatible The sequence continues in this manner leading to the tr value of gs. This value affects the unvarying potential value of /dfand produces the actual value of ldf lor the concerned period. The actual stature of ruling leadership varies from period to period in accordance with the varying performance o{ the government i.e., gs (tr), The actual value of /df (l) and gs (I) then determlne

the

l I

along with that o{ ed (tr) deterthe es ()). The value of 9s (l) for the next period. The computation mine the value of ae cycle of the algorithm terminates at this point. The conversion of I values into performance values then yields the values of system vafiables in appiopriate perqentages and scaling magniThemes of inference and Validation t

(I)

tudes.

Simulation of system dynamics permits the following themes of ietrodictiv confirmation and predictive inference for all societal systemsl :

(i)

for a period f -|n with reference to the present period t may be obtained, This knowledge of the future system state would be in terms ol the whole configuiation of vafiables given in the system's multiloop structure, The supplementary requirements here
state

By estimating politico-militafy pressure through a maximum likelihood procedure, a preview of the system

This Methodology including the same invariant rslationships of the slmulation algorithm has besn applisd to socital systams as diverse as Brazill France, India, Nigria and USA. The retrodictive confirmaltion and

predictive lnlsrence over a simulated period of two decades 'and mote have been obtaincd In a consistent mannsr, (Rastogl' 1972' 73' 74 and 75) in all the five cases'

34

Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal System

would be a knowledge ot Z oi GS for period t*n-l and the values of education (in terms of literacy & emphasis on research and development), population giowth and potential leadership factor ldf, (ii)

ln so fai as Government as a societal institution is the control subsystem of society as an adaptive system, the passage of any directly regulated vaiiable into the 'collapse zone' of viability continuum (0 < l(0.25) would signal an impending state of government instability i.e., a failure of the system iegulator in a principal area of system performance. Suih a period would be associated'with major policy and structure changes in the government and the political system.
The mode of political Instability and/or Government change may be ordeily or disoideily, depending upon the closeness ol Z oi GS values to the polar limits. Systems in higher I zones would display orderly change owing to their higher innate vitality while those in the lowei zones i,e., GS < 0.5 niay be disofderly. The probability of violent changes, revolutions, coups and chaos would increase directly with the approach of GS values towards the collanse zone.

(iiD

(iv)

The same would be the case with the duration ol political instability. The periods of political uncertainty may be short lived or prolonged dependidg upon the Z or GS values. In the case of highei system viability values, Wiener's law would iectify the unstable situation (s) depending upon the (relatively short) peiiod required for the equilibrial matching of frequencies. Higher I variables would pull the lower I variable (s) up. The reveise would be the case in societies with' low values of Z or GS. Here low l variables would pull the highei ones down. Themes (iii) and (iv) piovide a basis for understanding the absence of such a class of situations i.e., prolonged and disorderly instability in the political systems of developed socie-

'Metlndology af

lrwestigatton .

tS

ties. The feverse is the case with some undeideveloped societis of Africa, Asia and Latin America. ' (v) In the case of societles in higher I zones whefe most ol the variables may be peiforming viably, the change of government would be exclusively piedicated afound. , . , the variable es unless it is overwhelmed by sudden external military piessu re. (vi) Government change in stable societies i.e., ed>0,S, is explicable in terms of the GS and es values duiing electoral periods. A sequential deciease of GS values i.e., GSt< GSt- j and correspondingly es (i)t < (l)t-l during an electoral period would provide a basis for prediction iegarding the lack of success of the ruling party. ln the case of marginal differences the ' situation would be one electoral context. ' Highef GS and es valuesof c/osethe stability of the favour regulator unambiguously. (vii) Values of the economic variables fike economic growth, unemployment and price iise generated by the model a1e directly testable against the iepoited values . of these variables for the corresponding. periods. (viii) Vqlues of the qualitative variables like administrative efiectiveness, public unrest and ethnic tension are
.

indirectly confiimable. A conslstent coriespondence belween their vaiiation in the system,s simulated coufse and the comparable situations (coiruption, inemciency, 'mass pfotests, violence, riots etc.) in the
concefned societies during those periods would serve

(ix)

validation of this variable. Random exogenous impact ofcurrent events (History) on the value of /df is how_ ever not generated by the modet. Exogenous variables requiie monitoring for the inseition of their valuos in the system,

to validate the model results. Values of leadership factor variable are also similarly confiimable. Periodic public opinion surveys on the popularity of the ruling leadership may help in the

35

Cybernetlc Analytis of Indian Soeietal System

(x), Expectations o{ socii are most directly confirmable. lf the value of this variable comes down to 0.251 or less, it signifies an impending change of the society's
govern ment,

Gonclusion The major semantic dimensions of the methodological framework outlined in this work may be summarized in the form ol a hyper cube as in the diagram number four.
The issues of the regulator stability and system viability computation estimates the are here seen to be congruent, viability in terms ol the contiol capabilities of the system system regulator, i.e. the government. GS estimation computes system viability in terms of the comulative impact of institutional pressure on the system regulator. Convergence of the two system viability measures underscores the logical validity of the conceptual and methodological apparatus developed here.

ol society here is on pulsated by processes within an invariant lrame provided by dyriarnic Wl6ner's law. The majof determinants of . societal viability that may lead the system towaid a trajectory of Z and GS maximization are the high values of administrative effectiveness and the low values of politico-military pressure and population growth. All the three determinants conjoin together in propelling the system configuration from one viability zone to
The cybernetic picture
another,

It et ho dolo gy of Inv estigation

37

MASUEIME

TS

cLASSIflCAI|O

v,++#

t4lrfgff#

cHAf{6

cor'loEt0rls
,. tl{iri. -

i, : 3:3q] sr.bh Ph'!'' f,.lql ot Chan!}

r {
o.25

Itirtnlic

Oin.n3iona Dt.rrm

ol

M'lhodologY-l g!|lldltrY

tutlb$ -lv

,.

YJ

, fndian.,Society

me Path of Conternporary
(1

961-77)
.

Time path of a socidtal system is generated by the simula,l tion dlgorithm for.. societal systems.

foflows: '.,,, ':.'. : GS.':'1'1-tpg) tt

Equations of the slmulation algorithm and..system viabillty : Nature of the simulation algorithm based on the Wiener,s Law of the Entrainment o.r Matching of Frequencies has been discussed in the prqceding chapter. Here we mention the formulae and the types of equdtjons used in the geneiation of a societal system's simulated behaviours. - They -are given . as

.:..

(i)

__,,--.::.

This equation states the relationship between government stability (GS) and the total pressure on the government (tpg) at time t. Time unit of simulation heie is one year i.e., t: 1 year.

J:-, J; ^ uo^ o'tJl-,

J:

^*

u,rut:

lx t-lt

*----(ii)

fi-,

Jl

^r,,dt
AX

+ J:-. jl ^'d,\dt: .-,t I,l

.*_*_(iii)

*-''l

, | ^ -h
I

__(iv)

fime Path of Conlemporary lndian Soclery

js

AX
For a varlable u

=lt ^ul

----(v)

.I ,\ul
lr

j:a

rll*

----(vi)

arc Here, x and y are system variables (vectois)' ex and ey y' I I x I t and random exogenous impact vectors on x and of vectofs x and y at time f' I I y I r are the viability spectra year and o to I is the t'-1 to t is the system's cycling time i'e', 1 precedence iange ot l continuum. Equation (iv) represents the of x and y. anJco_variation relationship between the viabilities them at time f Equation (v) represents the equivalence between precedent u.qtiu!].t' p t ) in equation (vi) represents the set of M

ol.u..Thenorma|izedadditivityoftheirviabililiesdeterminesthg to the differen' viability value of u. Viability spectta I I x I refers parts ol the tial regulatedness ol the constituent and cognate into a point estimate' performance vector x and their resolution
computing the system 'is variables' viability (Z) through the viabilities of its iegulated givcn by :

The mathematical expression lor

t:x
R

i:1 l^,1

,f'

----*(vii)

the I fh perfqi'' wheie I I i I is the spectia of iegulatedness of regulated performance mance'vector and N is the number of the The variables vectors' Both tr and Zvaiy between 0 and {'

(vectors)involvedinthecomputationo{Zarcpmp'ae'eg,ue;F
pu, et and /df. Finally'

GE=
t

Z
t

- - - -(viii)

f40

eybernetic Anaiysis ol Indian Socidtal Systen

is the last equation type. Jt refers to the equivalence of GS and Z cln theoretical grounds. The'values of Z and GS aie found to be in close agreement in the simulation of societal systems.

Processes and Events in Indian Society during 1961_77 period :

Early sixties saw the development of tensions with China over Tibet and the Chinese territorial claims against India. A ggd{en and large military attack by China in tSOZ tea to India,s defeat. A war situation with pakistan deveroped in Kutch areas

.nalions.

1965 when pakistan tried lo change the status of force. These events reflect the impact of exogenous military pressure (pmp) on the lndian system.
Kash.mfr by

ih 1964, lt was followed by a major war between the two

in

MonSoons failed for two consecutive years in 1965 & 1966 leading to a difficulf situation of food shortages in 1966 and .1967, Period from 1965 to 196g was marked by serious economic _and political instability (low eg, GS and Z and high tpg), Sece_ ssionist violence by Nagas and Mizos in Assam, seperatist movements by DMK party in Madias and Akalis in punjab, emerged and grew, Student unrest, food riots, labour agitations, lingUistic disturbances and communal disordefs occuired in many parts of the nation. A violent movement of extreme left communists (Naxalites) also emefged during this peiiod, These events signified a situation of increased et, pu, fuj and the endo_ genous dimension of pmp. In 1967 elections, Congress party failed to win majority in nine out of seventeen states and could obtain only a nariow majority in the rest. politics of defection involving a frequent change of party affiliation by the legislators, emerged as a new political phenomenon (low values of GS, /df and esj.
Economic situation became critical due to mounting military expenditure and the shortfalls in agricultural production. public sector worked poorly, Currency was devalqed by 36,bol" ,l966.

in

'fime path bf Contbmporury Indian

(low values

Society

..41

An economic recession set in 1965-66 and continued upto 1968 of ae and eg and high values of ue anil pr). This situation began to change in 1968 due to marked increase in agricultural production. lt was made possible by a good mon,soon and the use of the high yielding varieties of wheat (weather and new technology, research and development as exogenous variables influencing eg). Political stability followed in consequence (higher values of GS, Z, Idf and es). ln 1969, the ruling. Congiess Party split into two. lts breakup was a delayed outcome o{ the earlier crisis in the national political system. The political section led by Mrs, Gandhi won the 1970 parliamentary election by a wide margin.

ln 1971, a tense politico-military pressure situation with Pakistan developed again. Ten million fefugees from East Bengal entered India. India concluded a mutual help tfeaty with USSR in 1971 to negate the pmp engendered by the SinoPak alliance in this context ('relations with othei societies' variable), The escalating situation led to Pakistan's disintegration and the emergence of Bangla Desh in December 1971. Successful management of this serious crisis increased the leadefship stature of Mrs, Gandhi and led to her pafty's impressive political victoiy in March 1972 state elections (ld;rvariable).
lmpressive electoial victofy of Congfess Party in Maich is hence accounted by the mafked inciease in the value of /df for Mrs. Gandhi during the electoral period. The value of her actual ldf and es however decrease later in the year owing to a decline in system viability (GS' Z). They imply that the success of Congress Party would have been less im' pressive had the elections been held latei in the year. Tfie paity would have however still won owing to the relatively higher leadership statufe (/df) of Mis. Gandhi as compaied to that of the fragmented opposition. Higher values of pu and et and lower values ol GS, Z and es over the 1972-14 perlod are ieflocted in the growing volume of economic chaosr civil disturbances and political instability dufing that period,
1972 elections

by wide-spfead public distuibances in Assam ovef lhe issue of language and in Andhia ,Pradesh over lhe issue of the seperation of Telengana and Andhra fegions; Caste tensions, labour unfeSt and communal iriots continued to occur. Students agitated extensively in Delhi, Puniab,.Andhra and U.P. over a wide vaiiety of issues. All these events added up to a disquieting situation of public unfest (pu) and inteinal divisiveness (ef).

'4t .

Cybernetic Anaiysis oilndtanSocieial Systen The year 1972 was marked

.

, The year 1973 was much wofse. lt was marked by wide.spiead linguistic disturbances in Mysore and Maharashtra alongwith the continuence of {he separatist agitation in Andhia. president's rule was imposed in Andhra, Manipui, Orissa, pondi,.qhqfry and U.P. owing to administrative chaos and political instability. Communal. riots, civil disturbances ('bandhs,), tood agitations ahd student unrest occurred in nearly all the states. 'Widespread strikes by locomen, state government employees, power plaht engineers, airlines personnel (,go slow' and 'lock out'), textile workers, junior doctors, and transport opeiatois distyrbed industrial activity and social life extensively. . Factionalism in the ruling party intensified in most states leading to ieplacement of ministries in sevefal of them.
.

High Values of pu and et in 1974 weie evidenied in a wide and. prolonged student movement against corruption in Qujarat 'leading to the dissolution of the state legislature, an unsuccessful but costly strike by railway unions and a wide public move4ent involving students in Bihar. Bihar stir was led by the Gandhian leader J. P. Naiain who demanded the dissolution of Bihar assem.bly. rJ.P. also called on the police and army personnel to disobey the unjudt and repressive government orders, Murder 'of icentral railway minister L. N. Mishra, attempt on the life of lChief Justice A,N. Ray and alleged ,conspiracies' against the ilife of the them Prime Minister contributed to the deteriorating lsifuations. Civil administration and the Iegislatures were getting paralysed, Further random uncertainiy was introduced in the 'prevailing situiition by.an adveise judgement of Allahabad High Court in an election petition against Mrs. Gandhi in early 'June

"

,fime'fath oj Contemporary lndian

Society

4t

1975. Under ihese conditions, the ruling government declared a state of emergenoy on 26th June 1975 in order to preserve its political interests. The measure was ostensibly aimed at dealing with the economic menace of black money hoarding, blackmarketing and smuggling. But it was later used widely for adrninistrative excesses and the suppression of political dissent
and opposition.

'The assumption of wide powers by the governr.nent and.the ..support extended to it by the state organs like bureaucracy; pbliee and'military, confirms the stability of the regulator empirically '(higher:values of Z, and GS in 1975). Further validation of 'the ianallsis.is provided by the convergent values of Z and GS'and the consistency ol their variation in time. The ineffectiveness of the agitation by the disunited opposition parties also attests . to the same conclusion. :''' . ''.The most immediate and direct.impact ol ttie bmergenby measures was on Administrative Effectiveness (ae) variable. tts ,'vdlrie'is lnterpreted to go: uprby one third of a }.segment. i.e,, ils new value becomes 0.51. This inference is supported by the improved conditions observed throughout the country duiing ithis period:: offic'e staff became 'punctual; social :didcipline in,creased, strikes, demonstrations and gheraos stopped, trains bbgan to rud oh time, ticketless travel declined, smuggling de'creased, tax recovery increased; black money operators weie lrestrained, price and availability of essential comodities im'proved; educational institutions began funotioning peacefully, and the overall crime rate went down. Higher value of this (ae) yaiiable affected other system variables in a corresponding 'manner. Values b{ the system variables for 1975 reflect the above changes, Econornic grqwth tate foi '1975 was i also markedly affected by a very good monsogn. It contrthuted very materially to the upward swing of system' viability (2, GS) in 1975 and thereby helped the ruling leadership in improving t'it{ image(hwher es and ldf) during the I.atter half of 1975 and
earlY 1976,

44

Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Socie:tal Systettt

Bureaucratic and administrative excesses in the implementation of the family planning programme (forcible sterilisations) during 1976, very adversely affected the standing of the ruling leadership and the government. Continued detention without tiial of a large number of senior political leaders and workeis, a rigid suppression of political dissent, the subordination of basic civil liberties and the buildup of Sanjay Gandhi created a repulsive, nepotic and repiessive image of the ruling government. These highly negative developments along with the resignation of dagiivan Ram lrom the government and the Congress Party in Febiuary 1977 further adversely affected the prospects of the ruling'party in Maich 1977 parliamontary elections (lower values of Z, GS and the highly adverse random impacts on the value of ldf in 1976 and 1977). Exceedingly poor performance ol the ruling party and its loss of powei in 1977 elections is accounted by the following lhemes ot inforence (outlined in the third chapter) :

(i)
(iD

Decrease in system viability in 1976-77 as compared to that of 1975-76 i,e.,Zt*1<Zt and GSt*1<GSt. Marked decrease in the /df value of Mrs. Gandhi and the ruling leadership owing to adminlstrative excsses in the family planning pfogramme and the highfy iepressive nature of her political measures. Such a decrease repiesents the random exogenous impact of History (current events) on the endogenous 'Leadership factor' vafiable. This decrement brings down her actual ldl {rqm 0.621 to 0.501 i.e., below the collective ldf value of the senior opposition leaders led by Jaya Piakash Narain, Such a precipitate decrease accounls fot the electoral defeats ol Mrs, Gandhi, her son and their close associates.

(iii) Deciease

in Mseives to decrease es fiom 0.831 to 0.25,\ i.e. s,+1<esi in 1977.

Time Path of Contemporary Indtan

Society

45

ln an analogous manner' it may be stated that the tuling patty would have won by a substantive margin, had the elections been held a year agot i'e' in March /976 or earlier' Values of Z and GS for 1975-76 were higher than those of 1974-75' The bureaucratic excesseg had also not much affected the value of the /df at that time.

Simulated Behaviour Period:

ol

ndian System during

1961-77

System simulatibn output for the lndian societal system during the seventeen year period is represented in a tabular form as follows. A gfaphical representation of the changing values of GS and Z during this period is aslo given alongside'

46

Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societal Syclem

00 (9 g)

qq dSfe$s
oC) (pro$c)Oo'
-

<EoP u) ro rr) '60 oooci

sf (c) lO (O Ft \t^ ,ro, 6l . -i -: -: ..j at d) (o rar !.l:l .rl). $tf,r')6t
.

@ g)

oo

EE :l&-+s$*
616r Fcjocj

' \o -o

.l

(o o)

(o

;\o qE o

-oB-=3gS F.) <ej & o'o cj

o.i=otaoo

iooo
oood
F

c')

(o

f-

I.-

oo
<.,

orr ro$

^ \o -o *;'la_t8 $ E g g s

(l) o)

E
CD

g I a.: a-Sgoo .o oo dodo -ooo a 'r,FrAra: $ES,fr

;;

o3 z.
J.: trt=
l-

6r

'6

g)

pF o.jco ff*ss$ 'rlooo

.3 ^\.

odocj

s$ae
lJ'

t!S

'o

qq)
an

c{ (0 o,

oo oo

(Oro \f

a)dRissB ssEE *:9 o d

o'o d o'o

(.,

(0

Fr+-tc\l

df *3 s $ OIDF-Oc|'c'

HH

oOOO

se

o
()

o o
(U

{ EE- f =.. EEEF**3=*EE E G6. E,PRE':-E*>i d<bfiso-dEEgd iff

5E6

e e,i gE kEg-,I
:gp

$ o.r==-o

(,.f

56

E;
fiE

Time Path of Contemporary Indtan Society

47

o=N o=

(cl*QE!coArzt @6c1o(qo-

99?99999n:.|F99
9999999Sr,:.rEr99

s3$BsasRSscr

sH$$$sessssr
sEHiSisSsSsr
geegeeeF=Pee

{ o
o

99.o9999Jror..?99

z o
19

B3&SSSs$s\tB o(ro_o_Sb \EAASEB$$Et56F )e 6_ eePeeeexseee r\2(rss(r.i?i=gBSi r

B E F g .'r t P9999P9F--!!'99 (D 6, gl gt as .tr'
s5q)\d(Jr*t.-ca-\o-o A

(o

{ N' {
-l 5

o o
c (D

gePePe.oNFeeg

(o g)

(o

o- ;q

ql

(O \o

c') (llt cll

(o

C'T

99999999oS,,99 ng Cn lrr (Jl 5.E'Ol><\o 999P99990-!e99 (,r('rS Nl('I('I

(roooocDl\J\o\oro(Do (,r

(0ortsreoo-.lo-"-s--.1
('r19O-.1 o\ o\ o\

SF

__.1

c')

5('|

(o

_.1

48

Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Socletal System

T oso
I
I

! o.' 3

o.33

67
TIME

69

7l

IilOIAN SOCIETAL ->

Tlme Path of Contemporary Indian

Society

49

Viability values

ol the Indian system are heie sen to

of the political processes leading change. Political violence and disorders are the charactefistics ol societies wittt low viability (i.e. GS < 0.50)
orderly nature
to goveinment and low /df. Time Series Validation of lndian Society's Course : The following table compares the results of system simulation with the available evidence foi the peiiod under review' It illustrates the natufe of ietrodictive confirmation for the economic and political variables,

been possible despite the immence problems of poverty, external military pressure and internal ethnic divisiveness. The explanatofy variable here is the leadership factoi whose high value prevents the value of es ffom descending into the collapse zone of 0.25 l. This variable however reaches the low values of0.26 andO.253 in 1965, 1966 and 1967and 0.27 and 0.26 in 1973 and 1974, These low values signify the tremendous magnitude of destabilizing internal and external pressures during the periods of acute dioughts in this primaiily rural society. The oldest and the ruling political organisation in the country, Indian National Congress broke down under the impact of the first such crisis period. The political system itself reached a bieaking point under the impact of the second instability period. The second period also saw the emergence of the politics of mufdei. Murder of central railway ministei, attempts on the life of the Chief Justice and alleged conspiracies against the life of the then Prime Minister highlight this aspect of political instabilitY' Cumulative impact of administiative coefcion and suppfession of political dissent in 1976 led to a steep erosion in the leadeiship stature of the fuling regime and its collapse in the March 1977 elections. Viability values of the system at Z 20.50 during 1976 and 1977 however account for the peaceful and

oscillate in a narrow band around the stablity threshold of 0.5. During the 1965-67 and 1972-74 periods, the system manifests serious syniptoms of internal instability. It has hdwever been relatively free from the situations of acute political chaos characterizing numerous other developing societies, This has

50

Cybunetic Analysis

of Inilian

Societal System

tt)

c (It

L
o

-: =+(ui=

h:

a,

=
(c gt

I 6E;S.= 3g 6 OiE EEE: 't B ..I= -.g E * EA;I EEE

-(r,
15

E*9-EE= 9E E TiX .= o,) os o(o t E* 2.3 os5

ro

:1, EJ X oo

.1.9 C,!
i-l -*o -i-

9- ; ;o o
= q
I

u6 tdt
=
(D6E rr)(gF:E 6tc\lc.jc

troD : turs

3.2

E 6:6 g =-gEg E
ciddC

I?
at

o o

a uJ
@

EE OO

E&E ooo
ltl

q
tE

ut

T'

f,

:e!3 ;e ;e ;R ;s ;e;9 o?oqqqAi"?oq.?

d;odF;<;jcrirt

E
o o o

t
uJ

ll
'be

.a='

ot, Za

o
E
G

si

>s

>e ;9 o?eb g) lO

>9
Ot

\o

atso

\o

\o

-+

u$ JG o= <F L.=

'o

E &
IL

6
o c

CI'

.9 (,

o IJJ
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q
6l

a? c\t

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od

It

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gJ

.E

o
o

o o o

\o il- "g -o -o \o \o rrtdtrt-6id S $ a*B'

F
v,
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.E

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rcl

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o0
oo

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r''
6t

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(0

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r+ (c) 6)

ro

qr(9r--t s<tsrct ciddd

Gt (0 (D CD

r r r8
lrt(l,Foo
FF

Ttme Path of Contemporary Indian Soclety

51

c .E

FE-F ECE

;Fg:

I ol F ;E:g 2c:
o)ts

d ;

s
ED

q)

$aeg=iHe$ ;gg:i':iE

<8 JO
..O

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u,

q qEfr\Edrf OOoooOOOO
r-FiotSS&F
I I

ER
(Y)

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nt

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cir
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?;
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aa

tr

f *ddsf lrtFiSS&+@d
I *f***S*f*f.*o
ri.fot$e+c(t
ddd

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81a >E IE z-

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S
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&i

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ul J

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rt
rl:l (o u?

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c\to ll) ltt

u?

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ot
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e al FFI\FFFFF g) ) o, F
-

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1ct (t)

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o)

52.

Cybernetic Analysit of Inilian Societal System

An averaging process here is essenl ial in the context of the validation of results. The periodicity of the system cycles has' here been accorded a constant value of one year. The actual cycling period of the system may however vary around this mean value, Anofher discrepant factor is the definition of the year according to Calendar and the financial year (April to March) used in the computation of official statistics. Values ol ue heie agree with the estimates of 30 to 40 millions unemployed persons
in the country. During the drought years, this figure increases sharply as the millions of peasants and rural labourers become unemployed during these periods,

Validation

pfovided by the consistency of their variation during the normal and the difficult periods of the system. Failures of the Control Cycles in Indian Societal System
I

of other variables like pu, et, ae and ldf

is

contiol cycles in the Indian system. Indian society is

Output of system simulation depicts the failures of societal

seen to be affected by persistent politico-militaiy pressufe, low literacy, administrative ineffectiveness, low economic growth, inflation, unemployment, internal disoiders, social divisiveness and low system viability. lt has however the advantage of a high ldf lactor which distinguishes it from other underdeveloped systems.

A tabulation ofthefrequency ol non-viable variables over the last 17 years attests to lhe fecurfent failures of the most of the system cyles. Such a table is given as follows :

6i
Table l{umber
4

Ffequency of Non-viable Variables Indian System from 1961 to 1977

Variable
1.

in the Behavioui of
Frequency (N:17)
10

Criterio n pmp
ae

Politico-m ilitary

pressure
Ad
m in

istrative

15

efiectiveness
3.

Population giowth (given)

ps
eg ue

17

4.

5, 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
11,

Economic Growth U nem ployment

Pf

10 12

ice iise

pr
pu
eL

13

Public unrest
Ethnic ten'5ion System Viability Expectations of

.11
2 7
7 5

Governm6nt stability gs

z
es

socii
12.
13.

Litefacy (given) Health (given)

ed

17
17

ht

Persisting low values of these variables define {he nature of malaise characterising this system, They attest to the poor health of the system i. e., its low viability. Thdy are simub tai:neously fhe causes and consequences of their cyclic interaction through the dynamic connectivity of system cycles, They conetitute an interrelated set of blocking factofs in the development of this system toward higher viability, Theii rectificatlon hence requiies a comprehensive strategy of total syslsm
development.

..

The Course of the System upto 1980

Cybernetic algorithm pefmits the simulation of a society's course in a logically invariant manner. The pioblems however' arise in respect o{ the impact of random exogenous factors on the system from period to period' The following random exogenous impacts for example acted on the lndian societal system during 1970-77 period, They influenced the society's course in a vaiying manner :

1,

2, 3. 4, 5. 6. 7. .
8.

A very good monsoo.n (1970-71). Influx of ten million refugees from formet East
Pakistan (1971) War with Pakistan (December 1971) producing a delayed impact in 1972' A drought situation in 1972. A fourfold increase in the price of petroleum incfeasing {he cost of imports from Rs. 252 crores to Rs. 1100 crores per year (1972-73).

in 1973 and part of 1974. judgement against Mrs. Gandhi Allahabad High Court's
,A severe drought situation

in an election petition (rJune 1975), Declaration ol a state of emergency leading to improved administrative effectiveness (June 1975).
Coups in Bangla Desh (August

9.
I

and November 1975),

Computatlon presented in this and th precedlng chaptr were made during A ugust-Septembe r 1975. Tho values of /dt and es havd.besn recomputed, The dlagrams however show all the values as orlginally computcd.

fh, iouri, oi the iystem uPto 19do

55

&i

10.

A further 10 pefcent rise in the price (Octobei 1975).

excesses

of

petroleup

11, Administrative

in the

implementation of the

lamily plapning programme (forcible sterilizations) in 1976, continued suppiession of political dissent and the exit of Babu Jagjivan Ram from the Congress governrnent and party in Febfuary 1977. These random events (impact of current historical events on the leadership factor variable) veiy adversely affected the image of the ruling leadership (Mrs' Gandhi's /df [,\]) in the context of the March 1977 parliamentary election s.

12.

Unity of the opposition parties (Janata Party's emerg' ence) brought about 'by the elder statesman Jaya Prakash Narain within a short period of one month
onlY.

These.fandom exogenous factois and the magnitude[of their impact could not have been fofeseen in 1970 or 1972. They illustiate the difficulties of predictive inference for 'periods longer than a year or two. The process of piedictive infefence is however supported by a relevant theorem from cfreinetics. lt states that large complex nonlinear systems are irisensitive to minof variations in their variables and parameters. The basic nature and direction of their course are not substantively affected by minor changes in the values of the system variables. Hence the process of prediction would not be seriously vitiated by small errors in estimation and smail random ferturbations. This however would not be the case i{ the changes involved are large and substantive or the impact of small changes is cumulaive in the short run. Change in the /d/(l) value of Mrs. Gandhi in 1976-77 was such a large and substantive change.

The petiod fiom

alEo

1977-80 :

Simulation of the co urse to resolve tho problem

of lndian sooiety up to 1980 has ol random exogenous impacts,

i6
categories:

Cybernetic Anaiisx o7

in&n

Soaeui,Sysran

These impacts may broadly

be

divided

into the following three

(D (ii) (iii)

Level of politico-military piessure from othei societies. The scale of indigenous oil production. The magnitude of potential drought situations.

Each of the above three categories is further subdivisible into higher and lower, more serious and less serious. They may also variously combine together to produce diversely varying situations over the coming periods. The following four types of situations are proposed for simulating the systemis course:

(1)

Continuation of the present pattern of politico-military pressure upto 1980, lmpact of indigenous type (1).
hisher level
im

(2)

oil

piod uctio n

on the situalion

(3) A

pact

oJ

of politico-military pressure and the indigenous oil production on the situation

and

politico-military pressure and the impact of indigenous oil production, 1 Each of the above lout situation classes subscfibes

(4) A lower and declining level of

(l) lmpact of emergqncy on ae would gradually disappear by 1977. The variable would resume its natural value governed by the endogenous system variables only.l

(ll) There would be a drought

in

1979 followed by a more

serious drought situation in 1980, To the extent these two assumptions do not hold in any of the system over the period would improve. Simulation results in the absence of drought situations have however also been discussed along with some other possibilities,

the situation class, the performance of

1 Thls assumptlon firet made durlng August 1975, has alrsady proved t9 be 00rrect.

'

ihe

Course oJ the SYstem upto 1980

si

Rationale behind the Seleclion of Situation TYpes and AssumPtions: Politico-military pressure is the most important exogenous factor driving the system toward instability. lt may persist at the current level or increase to a higher level or decline to lowef levels. All the three variations with their differential eonsequences have been selected for system simulation. Petroleum is becoming a more and more costly hatural resource because of its economic and political importance, lndia currently imports more than two thirds ol its annual requirements, The consumption of oil is moreever going to increase in the context of th'b country's industrial requirements. lndia has some proven reserves of oil, The scale of indigenous oil production over the period however remains uncertain' On the basis of a recent analysis, the contribution 'of oil savings (i'e.' annual revenue minus annual proiect Gosts) to economic growth has heie been estimated at 0.2o/s, 0'60/o and 'lo/o during 1978' 1979 and 1980 respectively with some variations.r lmpact of production in 1976 and 1977 has been ignored owing to its relatively smaller volume. Moreover, the gains from additional annual production upto two million tons would be nullified by the annual price increase by OPEC. The annual increase in the cost of oil imports to the extent of 10"/' a yeaf offsets the modest gains of small indigenous production during'1976 and 1977.
The basis for envisaging a drought situation in 1979 and 1980 is provided by a seven year cyclical pattern observed in the empirical data over the last thirty years, The consequences of recuiring droughts afe becoming more severe with the increaee

The basls forthe contributlon of

oil

savings

lo

eg has been arrived as Contribution to eg

rare.
O,15o/o '

tollows:
Year

GNP estlmate
@

growth

3% annual

production.

Undiscounted savings irom oil Rs. 34.5 crors

0.56% Rs. 129.7 c]orsE 1'o T" Rs, 244.3 cror es Rs. 24234 crotes These fioures lor oil savingt ars given by V.S. Hebls- ang A'P' Patkar' Economic TImes' sePtem' ';d;-;i;v", Hi;h cori'biiini Anal-vsls',

1978 1979 1980

Rs. 2284C crores Rs, 23529 croreg

thr

bor 1,

1975 p.6.

sd

Cybcrnetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

of population. They have led to a growing volume of grain,imports during the crisis periods, The data may be repfesented in a tabular form as below :

Table Number

The Gyclical Pattern of Dioughts Between

Drought years

1943

to

1974

6rain [mports

Gap in Years

1943 and 1944 1950, 1951 and 1952

'1957, 1958

Great Bengal Famine

lmport of 4.8 million tons of cereals in 1951 ; 3.93 million tons in 1952. mport of 3,65 and 3.22 million tons in 1957 and 1958 respectf

7 years

7 years

ively.
1963, 1964

lmport of 4.56 and 6.27 million tons respectively in 1963 and

1964.

6-7 years

Jul!

1965 to
'1967

June

lmport ol 7.46, 10.36 and 8,37 million tons respectively in 1965, 1966 and 1967.
Substantial imports

2 years;
7 yeafs from

.July 1972 to

June 1958. 7 yeais.

June 1974 According to this pattern, the recuirence of drought may be expected during July 1979 to June 19g0. The pattern may however shift by a few months in either direction i.e,, to 197g or 1981.

The Concept of Performance panel : The cou/ses of individual system vatiables together depict the successive changes ln the system states. The system states reflect the differential performance of the system over a given period. The collective trajectories of system vafiables along,.with those of Z and 65,would then setve to representthe

..rli;i.r'*tiF*r'*4--..,rri'lrft ittH'ltlfjr

ffheCowie oithe SYstem

try'r'o

ilfid

td
during a plan period'

course and perfqrmance ol the system Thecompositeschemao|-suchtiaiectoriesmaybedesignated The simulation of the u. ,n, U.*ottance panel of the system' be interpreted as above fout situation types may accordingly may show panels' yielding the basis for fouiperlormance llt' usual per' it"u".ring courses of the system variables lh the they may be constiucted ceniages and magnitudes' Altefnatively the variables' The terms of the viability (l) measufements ol
in panels in the latter case

would depict the succssive changes would demonstrate in the viability status of the system' They bl the system' Both the annual shifts in the viability specifa performance panels may be utilised in
of the intfnal dynaconiunction to deepen our understanding tl." of a societal systent' Both the modes drc illirstfated herc' fout basic situatlon Perfotmance panels corresponding to the
types aie now discussed modes of representing

as lollows:

Perfoimance Panel One (PP-l)

pressuie throughout the of the piesent level of politico-military cornplex ol exoperiod under review' lt is reckoned that the stfessgenous pressures (Pakistan and China) and endogenous lt i8 es underlying the present level of prnp would continue' with the also assumed that the economic exigencies aEsociated continue' The requilemetrts of oil consumption would also be impact ol indigenous production on a modest scale would ofiset by the annual price increases by the oil exporting countfies,
The changing values

This situaiion type covers the possibility of continuation

ol the

eystem vafiables afe given as

below

a ybemetie:An:atwt-s nj k&an' Socidai. Syst eiii

. 't.4% 16%
15.6%

0,50 0.425
,i

0.50

o.{1 o.zs% 27%'

2V/o.

of Socii

0.58 0.69 ,0.51 0.56 0.533 Q,583 ' : . ' ,.: ' 0,467 0.417 ' O,tS 0-Sg 0,25 0.505 0.75
0.28 0,50 0,63 0.23 0,40

Following inferences emerge from the above set of resurts : (1) A serio.us state of political and government intability would develop in i979 and i980.

(2)

m.ay lead {o a reimposition of .ernergency. measure6 .lt to stabilize the difficult situation.

(3)

Level

' lt regulation
0:57,o

of extefnal economic assistance to the extent :!o 1yo of GNF would , serve to irnfrgve the
of the system during the unstable period;

ldtp

Ilfp

o'rc

t"r,

o.r'

//f,

Ot' 7

.t
C,

o5t c5
o 57

fr ifrt
tt
o.

o'"
o.t,
o,4t
o.a.8

et zo.
95
e9 Pa

a.5

"og e,,P .. t

,.

o.t2

.t
a5'z ,ot
o5
o.at
o.aa,
EC

i7
Lt,
o ?c ' P',

oo

..17

ta o.1a ir o.lz

la
o.43t

o.1E

t. t
e,11

at gt ,e z

Zorie cf nstobfity

ac

+r, o-al 0 4l

pr

-1t,
at

o.

o.10

25

'75
VIABILlTY

76

'7e

"Bo

ME ASUREME N TS

OF

( Per

ormqnce

pqnel

INDIAN
1

SOCTETY (1975-80)

Crucisl Vorhbles

Diagram Number Six

?he'Course of thd Eittemlryto

1980'

"

61 : l

(4) System perform.ancethe period

1970:8,9.

ln""1g?5

'is

the bestlfie-dwtrgT-

Viability measuiements for 1975-80 c-orresponding to aie given in lhe -4igglem.number six
Performance Panel Two

PP-l

'sames level of politico' the This situation type military pressure as the pieceding one. [t however allows for a-growing positive impact ol the rising volume of indigenous oil production over the successive yeais from 1977 onwards. The resultant changed complexion of the situation is represented in the table number seven'
'assumes

(PP-ll)

Table Number 7 Simulated Coutse of Indian Society from

(PP-il)

1977

to

1980

Vafiables

Yeafs

1977

1978

1979

1980

Pqlitico.m ilitary Pressure (prnp) Adm inistrativa Effectiveness (ae) Economic Growth (eg) Unemployment (ue)

0.50 0.43

2.7%

10%
9.2%
0.52 0.48 0.50
0.50

0.50 0.42 2.8% s.3%

Price Rise (pr) Public Uniest (pu) Ethnic Tension (el) Total Pressure on Government (tpS) Government Stabllity (ss) Leadership lactor Actual

(tdf')

0.50 0.25
,.,

Expectations of

Socii (es)

z
Leadershlp lactor

9i806,
0.75

0,51 0.56 0.47 0.50 0.493 0.52 0.48 0r507 0.56 0.57 0,27 0.48
0.63

13,8% 7,2o/o 12.6%

0:50 0.425 1.s%

0.50
0.42

1.3% 17.3%

17%
0.59
0.51

0.53 0,47
0.55

0.26 0.46

Potential (/df,)

I
r

62

Cybernettc Analysis oflndtan Socletal Syrtem

1975

PERFORMACE FANEL FOR INDIAN SOCIEIY .

tt?6
t9?1

TWO

PP.2)
I
l

00

Fg=
t978 |

rga;aE!s*E

0--_*_
ol

u/?

d-

xf

3
Cf,no-

Fg = ggEE

E:t8dtdg;o-3Ig'
es- etpeclolro.E

polil(o-m"iorl press.rre
dtecbenesg

oe - Odmnrsrotve
e9 ue -

I I

p, . prce /r5e

oi

socri

el -ethn,( tensron
D! -prJDic unresl
gs -governmerit stotil -teqdershrp

', - hvatue regoqrces

economr< growlh 'Jnemgoyrnent

ZI

systern

vrobrtiry

lpg- bbl tressure on goirfr]ef,.

o -o bl

y toclor

.o -

educotion

.l

-3

Pg- Populqtion growih

VIABILITY - lllustro|ng Low ot

SPEETRA
Enlrotnment

of

Frequercies

Dlagram No.7

,.,/

The Cyurse ofthe SYstemuPto 1980

63

o
A)

o-

t:

o
t^ ='

c
o

1; @.E .lF

l;
:
F

l-

rg

F-X
Fo

>=
LlJ

6 z
I

o c

o. ZF <= 6E

:.
z )

zs

89. oh
r.r E z Lt-

r!
P

}F

L
1bd

#*

;:

UJE

z
e

zo >b q;O ls,

t|-J

ctu
(I
a
@

crt

2 {!

a o

Diagram No.8

64

Cybernetic Analysls o! Indtan Societal System

This situation type shows the contribution of substantive oil production to the improvement of system perfofmance, The system response would be even better in case the drought situat_ ion is less acute than assumed, The graphical coufse of system variables from 1970 to 1980 and the viability spectra of the system from 1975 to 1980 are depicted in the diagiams numbered seven and eight respectively.
Perfoimance Panel three

ed

level of politico-military pressure from 1977 onwards. Increased pressure from Pakistan aided by its allies and China may lead 'to the emergence of such a situation. The assumptions regarding the positive impact of indigenous oil production (as in the preceeding situation) aie operdtive in the present context also. The problem ol developing the oil resources would rather acquire a greater.urgency in such a type ol situation. Accordingly, a highei level of positive impact from this factor has been assum_

(PP-tll) This situation type deals with the possibility ol a higher

here.

The system behaviour in this type of situation

is

iepresen ted in the table number eight.

Table Number I Simulated Coutse of tndian Society from l9?? to l9g0

(PP-ilt)

Variables Years
Politico- m ilitary Pressure (prnp,) Ad m inistrative Effectiveness (aeJ Economic Growth (egJ Unem ployment (ue) Price Rise (pr) l Public Unrest (pu) Ethnic Tension (el) Total Pressure on Government (f pg,) Government Stability Leadership factof Actual (ldf.) Expectations of Socii (es) Leadership lactor
@s)

1977

1978 0.56

1979

1980

0.53 0.43 2.7%

0.42

2.s%
8.*e/o

10%
8.2% 0.52 0.475 0.510

6.5% 0.505 0.47

0.51

12.3% 17.3% 10.8% 17%

0,56 0.42 2.2%

0.56
0,41

:t.3%

0,49 0.50

0,49 0.56
0.27

0.25
0.498 0.75

0.49 0,63

0.54 0.49 0.53 0.47 0,55 . 0,26 0.476

0.50
0.51

0.55 0.45 0,54 0.24

0.445

Potential (ldfr)

?he Course ofthe System upto

1980

dS

The results hefe indicate that the impact of oil production the extent of 0.5o/" to I o/o of net value added to economic to giowth per year helps the system to baiely maintain its stabiiity when faced with the higher level of exteinal pressuri and an acute drought situation, The situation becomes unmanageable in 1980. This situation type may hence call for a coopeiatlon with societies with similai intefests to reduce the level of exteinal pressure to more manageable pioportion. [n the latter case, the system iesponse would be an improvbment over the situation class two i.e., PP-|1.
Perfofmance Panel Four (PP-lV) : This situation type envisages the possibility of a gradual reduction of pmp level i.e. an era of a peaceful co-existence

with the neighbouring societies. In such a situation, more resources would be available for the purposes of productive development. The substantive impact of oil production is assumed here also fiom 1978 onwaids. The changed system iesponse in this context is iepresented in the table number nine,

Table Number I Simulated Coutse of lndian Society from

1977

to

1980

(PP-rV)
Variables Yeais
Politico-m ilitarY Pressure (PrnP)
1977

1978

1979

1980

0.41 0.43

0,44 0.43 3.5%

8Yo

inistrative Efiectiveness (ae) Economic Growth (eg)

Ad
m

Price Rise (pr) Public Unrest (Pu) Ethnic Tension (et) Total Pressure
Govern ment Stability (gs)

nemployment (ue)

2.8% s.3% 7.2%

0.51

5.8%
0.49 0.46 0.463 0.537 0.59
0.31

0.47 0.483 0.517

on Government (fPg)
Leadership factor

Actual (/df') Expectations of Socii (es)

0,50
0,25 0.515 0,75

Leadeiship factoi Potential (/dfr)

0.533

0.41 0.41 0.44 0.44 2.7% 1.9% 9.8% 13.8% 7.8% 't2.6% 0.52 0.56 0.475 0.5 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.51 0,58 0.57 0.30 0.29 0.523 0.50

0,63

66

The Course of the System upto 1980

. o
o

=
I

z
6
E

fo lx
t'
I

ls lp

o a

,fi

JP t\-

ls

@
I

o) F

ql
2
rn

rn

2 lr,

z
E A :1
q

e I
E o

z? g6

z
uj

z l

69
.J

Z.) -f np

N L
J

l" IR
I

*,t^ ,.Lo

zo

ua zd <F >; &ls tL ]F c trJ

l@

t.lN
I

o-.

a
E

'(D

z z
'(9

(This is diagran No. 9)

PP-IY

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal

System

67

This situation type depicts the best system response so far, By implication, it also defines an upper limit of system performance undef the constiaints of a severe drought situation in 1979 and 1980. A performance panel defining this situation class is given in the diagram number nine. Varying Configuration of Annual Situations: Each of the abovefour situation types assumes acontinuity of pattern throughout the period under review. Rising, declining and persisting levels of pmp, impacl of oil production and the occurance of drought, define these patterns' The actual situations may however vary from year to year. They may incorporate some elements from one si{uation type and others from another and so on. A permutative variation of situational chaiacterstics may occuf from yeai to year. Such variations would naturally affect the system output for the concerned periods. The problem of predictive inference lof a specific period becomes complicated in such circumstances.
Creation of a combinatory matrix of the major situational factors may help resolve the problem of prediction for specific time periods under varying conditions. The maior situational factors in the present context are weather, politico-military piessure and oil production. The weather may be classified into normal monsoon' ordinary drought and acute drought. Politco-military piessuie may be classified into the current level, higher level and lower level. Oil production may simply be classified as piesent and absent. The following combinations of specific situations then emerge along the rows and the columns ol a matrlx based on the above factors, as in table number ten.

The entries

predictive inference obtainable

in the matrix then represent the nature of foi the situations defined by the

intersections of rows and columns. A situation characterized by a lower level of pmp, the absence ol the impact of oil production and ordinary drought conditions, would for example be represented by the intersection of row lI and column lll' Predictive inference fsr this situation would then correspond to the

.68

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

o;j (oO

o>

a=
OA'

f;r qi3
!;o <<s rgd
o=
CL

sis srgl 9 3l.r i > o5.[3,;

;! <1J (ol

*-o <!
Y'-

'-Fs
^-! 6! o-:_

3'6 cnt foYl -," ='T

-$
-1

=
6'gt

*b i
=
Or --+| =
o .O=

d-: Eg ='i
B

='* -. "

o T! ='

-o 3
vq'-r

3
,v

6eil<
= o

!) str :(o* o-{.v

o 3 o ;-{ 3|||

6
--.I

<E
o

1ro

(oT

3T

i! ::!

it ?'
(o^-T
ql o-

9.;'!;o
\co<^Y =tE =A: +o +

5'PF =.8 E3

frEr o6:

I
*

;T
3'10

n!
{t

:<11 *-Ji_

9.='g +{

='R c+o -tt

5-

Ti-T
e-

o t o

<

d6T

i!

n! dT

QT f. -.J < oo
ol

o ='o r -fiO =5
-*! +o

=:

fhe

Cowse of the System upto i9A0

60

system state for 1980 in the performance panel four as indicated a situation marked by the current level of pmp, the absence of oil pioduction impact and a less acute drought is represented tiy the intersection of row lll' and column l; Predictive iirference for such a situation would correspond to the system states outlined for 1973 and 1974 in table number two. In this way, a total of ninteen specific situations have been covered here. The year 1975-76 emerges as the best year of the current decade.
by the matrix entry in the intersection space. Similarly,

The piedictive irlfefences in the present context are not to in a rigid manner. They are rather indicative of the nature of system response under a given set of circumstances. Contingent events and factors of a random nature are always occurring and perturbing the system, The reliability of the inference is based on the fact that complex nonlinear systems like total societies are relatively insensitive to minor impacts. Perturbations of a maior nature or a combination of the minor ones may however deflect the system response in varying degrees. The basic nature, pattern and direction of the system behaviour would not be substantively affected in other instances
be interpreted

A crucial advantage of lndian societal system is the high value of its /df factof. This variable serves to stabilize the system's course by halting its drift toward government instabiliiy, Frequent changes of government with the attendant deleterious consequences become imperative in societies marked by high stresses and lower /d/values. Indian society has been able lo escape the spectre of chronic political instability and recurrent changes of the government owing to the high stature of its leadership, The grim crises faced by Indian societal system would have otherwise plunged it into chaotic conditions. The years 1973 and 1974 were among the worst in the post-independence period comparable only to the situation during 1965 to 1967, Transition toward a military iule or chaotic political anarchy
during these periods would have been almost inescapable but {or the high stature of the national leadership. The same inference holds for the future also. The difficult situations of higher levels

fi

Cybernetic Analysis of indian Societal Systeln

ol pmp and acute drought situations in

future would not be easily manageable by a leadership of lowef stature. The high level of leadership is needed most when societies are confronted by the tremendous destabilizing pressuies of external menace, internal divisiveness, public uniest and high population growth.

Development of Total Society Systems

The working ol a societal system is governed by the opera' tion of i{s contiol cycles' Their intended operation in a giowth mode results in giowing system viability' A societal system ol may accordinglyle adiudged as developing if the viability would be in a its variables and iegulator are increasing' lt maximal state of development when the viability values of all its

variables become one. The concept of development here refers to a society as a whole. lt is distinct fiom economic development which refers concerto economic vafiables only. Societal development is ievelopment ol its economic, social, ned with the concomitanf educational p"f iti"uf (exteinal and internal), administrative and

for economic planning' ;hi;hl. an indispensable conditionto and is facilitated by

iconomic development contributes p"fiii."f stability. it is accordingly.an
imp.ortant part ol the more inclusive process ol societal development'

dir"nrionr.ltsfocusisonpoliticalstability(Z'GSandes)

Goals of Societal DeveloPment : the Goals of societal development directly tollow {rom manner' a deductive cybernetic model of societal systems in basic goals of human living in hu-man i'n.u.*"ro" as the "fne maximally viable behaviour of societal svstems rrilti".. . below: O.ZSa l < 1.0) defines these goals as A.-., (i) Human living in a world of peace and coopeiation (low and null valUes of Politico- Military Piessure)' (ii) Creation of material values for human consumption \"/ with distributive iftigh uufu.t of Economic Growth justice).

12 (iii)
(iv) (v) (vi)
(vii) (viii)

bevelopment

oj

fotai

Society SyslenJ

Ffeedom ffom economic pfessures and insecurity (low and null values of Unemployment and price Rise). Efficient and capable administiation (high values of Admin istiative Effectiveness).

High level of knowledge, techniques and communications flow in a society (high value ol Education in a catholic sense). Absence of social miseiy and disoiders (low and null values of public Unrest). Communal haimony and social solidarity (low and null values of Ethnic Tension). Social clima{e of hope and optimism (high values of Expectations of Soci i).

(ix) Political stability (high values of GS). (x) System viability (high values of Z). (xi) Highly regarded ruling leadership (high
Leadership Factor). Population Growth Rate). Healthy population (high values

values of

(xii) An uncrowded habitat (very low and null values of

(xiii)

of

Health variable).

The overall goal of societal development is to increase the viability of all these constituent variables. Greater the number of viable variables and their degree of viability the greatef would be the level of a society,s development.

Operationalization of the Concept of Societal Development Development of societies as ,rwholes,,is a concept that is operalionalized by cybernetic analysis. lt stands for the rising I trajectories of all the system variables along with the increasing viability o! the total system (GS and Z). The task of societal planning for societal development accordingly involves an integration of administrative, economic, educatrcnat, mititary, politicat (external and internal) and social poticies for sy stem devetooment,

Aybernetic Analysis oJ indian Societai

Systent

1t

The integiaiion is required to augment the viability values of all the system variables concomitantly' The prime objective is to ensufe that l values of the variables and system viability remain at a level higher than 0.5 and never go down to 0'25' The various patteins of societal stability and instability as a function of ) values may be represented as follow :

pmp ae es
1.0

q9____j.l___!]_
HS

et
HS

GS
HS HS

HS 0.75

HS

HS

HS HS

hs

hs

hs

hS

hs

hs

hS

hS

hs hs

0.56

rl
I

| 0.5
I

0.44

tl

ll
hl

il
hl

tl

tl

I
hl

hs

hl
0.25

hl

hl

hl

hl

Hf
0.0

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

H]

H]

RC

Diagnostic Status ol System Variables hs-High StabilitY HS-HYPer StabilitY. hl-High lnstabilitY HI*HYper Instability' ll-Low InstabilitY S-StabilitY' RC-Regulator Change Diagram Number Ten

be unstable This diagram shows that a societal state will of the il any oi its gi-ven variables ls in the H/ cell' irrespective will be instability status of other variables and GS' Political of GS are in anv of the 'l' .tiii"".*ii th".vrt"m il the values prevai[' as cells. Marked political instability will increasinglv cell' Persistence of es the value of GS goes down fromflf to h/ state involving the values in 0.25 I block will denotela societal

74

Cybernetic Anaiysis of indian Societal Systein

instability. Efforts towards sustained societal development will become increasingly difficult and,ineffective as the system
instability increases.

change of its ieguratof iirespective of the varues of GS and other system variables. Values of es in the S ceffs denote a continuing state of high system stability. They are incompatible with the existence of ht and H/ values of tt ott system varia. bles. Permutative combination of the diagnostic status of " ", GS, es and other variables define the diverse patteins of
system

societal systems.

The clanning priorities_heie afe logically indicated by the order: Hl > hl > lI > S. If any variable is in a hyperinstable state, it must have an overriding priority in the marshalling of a society's planning effort. Guarding against disruptive contin_ gencies is the preventive aspect of societal planning. lt is concerned with checking the downward drift of any difecfly regurated variable toward the first i segment (i.e., < 0.2b). The passage of any variable into the ,,collapse zone,' would ^ imply a marked failure of the regulator. A prime task of socieiat planning in this context hence becomes the prevention of such regulatory failures. This pieventive aspect of planning and management complements the directive aspect of higher system viability, Both are concerned with maintaining and increasing the regulatory capacity of system control for societal develoo_ ment, The diagnosis and prognoses of system states assume imperative importance in this context. Both of them are unique_ ly tacilitated by the construction of performance panels for

Performance Panels for Societal Systems: This concept has been explicated in the preceding chapter. The collective trajectories of system variables atong with those of Z and GS serve to represent the course and perfor_ mance of d system during a simulated period. The composite schema ol such trajectories is designated as the performance panel of a societal system here. performance panels depict past problems and luture prognoses. They ihdicate the deficient areas of development. Directions for changing the course of a system may logically be deteimined on their basis. A collection of such per{ormance panels for a society would serve gs a guideto its future behaviour under different sets of pfe-speci-

beveiopment of

fotal

Society Systems

IJ

fied conditions. Such a collection of performance panels for the lndian societal system was worked out and outlined in the preceeding chaPter.

Quality of Societal Life : Quality of societal life is a cognate concept of societal development. lt difters from the related econornic concepts like standard of living and per capita income' It is rather an integration of some basic societal factors that shape together the nature of social living in a society. Lives of masses are affected by social tensions engendefed by inflation' unemployment and internal communal disharmony. Health and educational statuses of a society as defined by the life-expectancy and literacy levels of its citizens, are other important characterizers of citizen's lives in a society. Government stability affects societal living as a determinent oJ administrative and political processes. Quality of societal life (QSL) m ay then be defined as a {unction ol these five variables as below :

QSL : Jt-l Jo l |

1t

11

(hl*edl-GS-f Puf et) dldt

The values of this function reflect the conioint and changing impact o{ these five variables. lt changes in accordance with the changes in its dependent variables. Computations of QSL for Brazil, !ndia, Nigeria and USA are given as in the following table and graphically illustrated in the accompanying diagram number eleven.

76

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Sociaat Systenr

tr,

lr
J

gl

o a tt o
E
J

(,

t a

65

67
T

tME

6t 7l ---,-->

Diagram No.

tl

Developmmt oJ Total Society Systenxs

77

TABLE NO.lI Quality of Societal life in Four Societies (t961'75)

Years
1961

Brazil
0.470

lndia
0.462 0.440 0.470 0.472 0.454

Nigeria
0.394 0.404 0.405 0.396 0.410

u.s.A.
0.680 0.698
0.686 0.696

1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

0.446
0.440

0,430
0.466

0.712

0.474
0,508 0.534 0.540 0.544
0.558

0.442 0.448
0,502 0.486 0.480
0.476

0.374 0 332
0.326

0.712
0.682 0.686

0,380

0.672
0.662
0,682

0.402
0.408 0,430 0.450 0.410
0.386

1972 1973 1974

1975

0.570
0.576

0.456

o.422
0.416

0.560 0.560

0.490

0.690 0.670 0.650 0.644

The table and the graph show the time'varying behaviour of this function for the lour societal systems. The viability threshold here is also 0.5 I in accordance with the viabilities of the constituent variables. A prime task ol societal development may in this context be defined as that of increasing the value of the variable QSL for a societal system.

Methodology of Societal Planning

The fundamental basis foi a methodology of societal pian_ ning is pfovided by the multi-cycle dynamics of a societal system. System's dynamic pattern enables one to identify the most sali_ ent system variables, the most important constiaint variables, the most controllable variables and the control interaction amongst system variables. Analysis of the input (lf and output (O,) links of variables leads to these identifications. Total number of incoming and outgoing links (l l,+> O,) associated with a variable indicates its sa/ierce (S) i,e., ielative importance in the system. The number of links received by a vaiiable (E l,) indi-

cates its constraint position. Constraint value of a variable depicts the number of inputs that determine its behaviour. Vari_ ables emitting Q O") the largest number of links are the most important from the control point of view. The ratio of their out_ put to input links (X O', /x l,) indicates lheir controllabitity. This ratio shows the relative influence of a variable on other variables Multiplication of this ratio with the salience value of the variable yields the controllability salience (CS) of that variable, Controllability salience ol a variable shows its relative importance and responsiveness to control within the system structure, Constlaint position, salience and controllability salience of societal variables may be outlined in a tabular form as below;

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

79

Table No.

12

Constraint Position, Salience and Gontrollability Sa lience of Societal System Variables

Societal
Variab le
Co

nstraint Position

(t
3
,|

Salience ControllabilitY (, l"+> O,) Salience

l")

/> o'' \(Et,+Eo,)

\>l'l

rl

pmp

3,3
12.0 1.5

2. 3. 4. 5.
6. 7. 8,

tr
anl ue

4
3 o

2
4

2 2
2

4
4 6 3 3 4 3 5 3

pu
et G52

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

3.0

4
4 2

L
10.

5.25
1.5 1.5 12.0 1.5

tdf
ed

't1.
12.
13.

2
'l

'14. 15.

ht ps rel

2 3 2

3.3
1.5

lnspection of the above table provides {ollowing importa.nt information for societal planning : t1l Most important Constraints:

(i) (ii)
1.

eg, et, gs.

pmp,

pO,

lnciudes Weather system.

as exogenous variable in the coniext of

Indian

2,

Includes tho linkages of tpg'

80
[2]
Most Salient Variables
:

Meftodotogy

of

Society planning

(i)
(ii) (iii)
[3]

ss,

es,

et,

pmp, pg.
:

Most Controllable Variables

(

(i) ir, ed. ii) ss.

(iii)

ue, pi, pu.

This classification of variables reveals thfee different but mutually consistent vantage points for a planning pfocess in total society systems. The first set shows the most important constraints that impede the development of a society. The second set shows the most salient variables whose regulation would in principle be sufficient to piomote socie{al development. This follows fiom theii multiple connections with othei vari_ ables. The fiist and the second set emeige as identical, This shows that the most important sy stem variables are simultaneously also the most important coBstraints in system development, The third set shows the variable$ most responsive to planning and regulation in terms of theil felative impoitance. They are the logical levers of change in system behaviour.
Dynamic structure of the system also ieveals the pattern ofcontrol interaction amongst its constituent variables. Each system variable outputs (O") and ieceives (1,) a set ol links to and from other variables. The set of input links received (1,) by a variable is however a part of the output set of links (O,) from some precedent variabte. This pattefn is opeiative throughout the interacting system. Intersection of input and output sets of links provides a basis for identifying the control interaction amongst a cluster of variables. Such intefactions highlight the problems of iegulating a given vafiable. Suppose one is intefes ted in the control of Piice Rise (pr), Diagram of system cycles shows it is receiving two links-Population Growth (pg) and Eco_ nomic Growth (eg). But eg is also an output from Investible

Cjtbernetic

" na$sis of Indian Soctetal

System
C,

81

Resources (rr). Hence control interaction factor and r'r is given by:

between pr

c(pR,

ttR)- lt'.n Il,"l IEGnEG'PGl , tu;=;:'t'' I tt, -' links from ir, lo, is the set of Here Or, is fie set of output

input links to pr, the numerator denotes the cardinality of the intersection set of (Oi) and (lr,) and the denominator, the cardinality of the input set (/p"). Examining the interaction pattern of pr throughout the system, we find that control of pr interacts with the contiol of ir, ae, ed, hl, rel, pmp and GS (or tpg),
Computations of the control interactions variables may be outlined as {ollows:

of pr with

other

c ( pR, EG)

: -L?#+al - | ur'eB-0lG'.pG | :o
: +*+:
: -r
|

i.e., there is no interaction heie. Null interactions are omitted in the following computations :

c (PR, AE)
C ( PR. ED )

t
I

re#-tFre? t :r,z

: IEG,PG :1/2 !^+!l9l I r,. I PG' EG 1 EG' PSJ:1p o""z fl lp" I c ( PR,REL): I - i * |"EG,-FGTIr,"Tc
( pR, HL

ll"l AE,HL,PG,REL n EG,PG I I EG, PG l":,tlz

I

In |,..] lr" \''P"!'

o,'i-r0-.!sJ-

ll9

The regulation ol PR interacts with the regulation of these variables. There are however two other variables whoge regulation interacts with the regulation of PR. They are given as below :

c ( Gs, PR)

: J-of#+
I PU, ET n PU, ET, PMP, ES :112
I

82

Dwelopment

of Total Society Systems

C (PMP, PR)

@:tio

I Oe, i lr*, I ln*, I I PU, ET n PU, ET, othef societies

I

^,^

The control inteiaction of pr with may now be summarized as follows :

othef system variables

rct)z

Vaiiables
Control [nteraction:

d,

FactoF

112
:

tl

ed,
112

ir, pmp, 65, (ht,

'tl2 213

tlrtl

112 (112 U2)

Precedent Variables

eg, F9

Control interaction factors here signify that any attempt to regulate price rise would involve the conjoint regulation of the above five variables in a consistent and compatible manner in addition to that of the precedent variables. Inconsistencies between the policies for their fegulation and the regulation of price rise would make the regulatory piocess ineffective. lf any of them is in the H/ or i/ diagnostic category, it may disclose an important source of the problem. The analysis hefe hence shows thai in order to control inflation, a government has to undertake conjointly a number of relevant measufes concerning economlc growth, population growth, administration, communication with citizens (ed), investments in the economy, reduction of politico,military and total pressuie on the goveinment in a coordinated and mutually consistent manner.3 Relative em phasis amongst them would be determined by their diagnostic status i.e,.

H{>hl >ll.
1.

2,

variable concernd would servs to bring out its relaiive importance llrther. Salience of a variable is glven by the total number oJ links-in_ comlng and outgoing associatd with it. Rollgion and Health here may bc vlewcd as part of the precedent varia_ ble pg in the context of the regulation of pr.

Multlplication of a control interaction factor wlth the salience ofthe

3. Thesearealeothe measures requlred {or the regulalion of unemploy. mont. UE and PR possess ths same eet of syslm linkageo, Unemploy_ ment is horyever aftected by the precedent variable pg In a different manner. Because ol the age factor Involved, a reduced populafion growth rate would produce its lmpact only after a perlod of 1E-l8 years,

Cybernetic Analysts

of Indian Societal

System

83

Control interaction factors

also

of

the most calient (they

are

the most important constraints)

and the most controllable

variables may also be similarly computed. They may be repre-

matrix form as follows. Interaction of public unrest (pu) is also included in the matrix. lt is one of the most tangible aspects of malaise in a society.

sented row wise

in a

The total set of control interaction variables is hence composed of the following subsets (i)
:

the precedent variab les.

(ii)

those non-zefo entry variables with reference to whom the input set of variables (El") is in the denominator. those non-zero entry variables with ieference to whom its output set ol variables (rO,) is in the numerator.

(iii)

population giowth rate (pg) lor example, ed, hl and /e/ are the precedent variables; ir and ed are inteiacting variahles where (lpg) is in {he denominator and ef and pu are other intefacting variables where (Opg) is in the numeraln the case

of

tor.

The total set ol interacting variables given by .' fed, hl, rel,

for pg is

accofdingly

ir, et' Puf

Regufation of pg, therefore implies the conioint manage' ment ol these variables according to their contextual relevance.

This pattein of analysis is now illustrated with feference to the problem o{ inflation in Brazil.
Problem ol inflation in Brazil is a chronic one. In tefms oi our analysis, a definitive answer to this problem emerges.

84

Development oJ Total Sociery Systems

'u)
UJ

J LU E

s
6l

(,

J(9

loo
e

d0 o'n
J
G,

|rI

-f

(D
C\I

OG c'J o z
(lt

Zt!

.= Otrta 2f(.D
trl

JO OFF

$ tt
o6t
c2 c\l

FO
o
=l tL

2x orr
tr O|rI E lrj

c\I

o
C
o)

Eo
= J o F z
OL (J

c\l (D

E E

rr.r

o o
q,

6l

o-l
r-

tr.I

lI ee

o G
(D UI

!Eg +l$*i$

o. =

:l

o-

aybernetic Anaiysis oJ kdian Societal Systenr

85

1970-75 feveals that none of the problem associated variables i,e,, ae, ed, ir, pmp, GS and eg are in Hl and hl Slatus (Diagram number twelve). This leaves only the population growth rate which indeed is very high. 'lt is in the magnitude of 3,5o/o annually inclusive of immigration, Accordin3ly, the unambiguous inference that emerges here is that rapid population giowth is the primary cause ol inflation in this society. Analysis of the situation by simulation algorithm supports the above inlerence and leads to following definitive conclusions about the nature and resolution of this problem :

An

i-rTspectioii''-of'the-'couise

of this society

from

(1) (2)

Biazil would not be able to solve its inflation problem il its current rate of pg i.e,, ) 3,5o/o per year continues.
Brazil would be able to reduce its annual rate of price rise to 6% if it is able to reduce its pg rate to even 3olo (inclusive of immigration), lt however presupposes the continuance of its curfnt economic growth rate at 9% annually in real terms.

(3)

be able to attain high price stability i.e., pr:2,61s only provided it is able to reduce its pg rate to 2,3o/" and increase its eg rate 1o 10o/o annually.
It would

(4)

Brazilian society would relapse into the chaotic pattern of inflationary spiraland political instability of the eaily sixties if the politico-m ilitary pressure on it increases along with the continuance of the piesent pg tate.

The accompanying diagram number twelve. compares the two possible time paths of .Brazilian society.

One outlines the continuation and developmnt of cuirent {rends. The second depicts the impact of higher politico-m ili{aiy pressure, The problems of inflation and public unrest continue in the first case, But they amplify menacingly in the second case leading to recurrent political chaos and economic ciises,

86

bevelapment of

fotai

Society S,ystezr3

ti
?,t
EE 0

t
tl

7 c

tl

il,

e6

8.
o
!

_Jo

t-

6!

1i
Hr
E
E.Er|

a,

o
lrl

It

I E.a

I' to o

t
ct

6t

IU
=aL

t- -E=e I 'I ii .IJ- 3 r a;

r 8'

.1"

Ir

c - ii i:a 5 re ! li,
:t Jtn

:
I

E5$.t

l-l ;

"lr t:"

\l a fI

PI

il ,g

c|l

t\

!:|a

8t,--

EY
o

tl

c.

Diagram Number Twelve

Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societal

Systetu

b7

The Achilles Heel of Nigerian societal system is thnic tension ie,, its internal tribal divisiveness. lts destabilizing role stems ffom religion and history (i,e,, exogenous variables affect' ing ef from the outside) and is aggravated by the socioeconomic problems of price rise and unemployment. The latter are ir-1 turn bound up with administrative effectiveness, population growth, education and political instability in an interlocking pattern. Despite its iecently acquired large oil wealth' it may not be able to solve any of its maior problems as shown by its first time path in the accompanying diagram number thirteen' On the other hand, il it is able to reduce its population growth to 2,3o/o and impiove ae, it would be able to avoid the spectre of recurrent political instability i.e'; the value o{ es would stay at a level higher than 0,251. The two time paths of Nigerian system are shown alongside in the diagram number thirteen'

Blocking Factors of Societal Development

Next phase of the planning methodology for societal deve' lopment concerns the identification of the blocking factois of

societal development. They are revealed by the recufring and persisting values of vaiiables in the Il, hl and Hl categories in ihe performance panels of societal systems' These blocking factors are simultaneously the causes and consequences of a society's lowefed viability. They may differ lfom society to society. For Brazil, India, Nigeria and USA, the identifiable blocking factors may be stated as below: Brazil l

(i) nflation (ii) Public Unfest (iii) UnemploYment

|

lndia:

(i)
(ii)

Politico-militatY Pressure Low Administrative Efiectiveness

88

beveiopment of

fotal

Society Systemi

qil
E"s 5|-

;; ;9:
.tJ
:!F

!t l_ .9 lE "rll
o
t.

.Eri

9l ti l- - z 'r t" '5'sBE

(t

t{

. 'i

,"" Eti i" .t "ti lcg

l!

I I

tlt rl

\
{a oo<tc;

Diagram Number Thirteen

Cybernetic Anaiysis oi Indtan Societai

Svstem

89

(iii)

Low economic growth

(including agricultural
develoPment)

(iv) UnemPloYment (v) Inflation'

Nigeria: (i) (ii)

Ethnic Tension

Politico militarY Pressure (primarily endogenous stresses)

n

(iii) Public U rest (iv) Inflation (v) LeadershiP Factor (vi) Low Administrative
Effectiveness

(vii)

UnemPloYment;

U.S.A.:

(i)Politico-militaryPressure.

(ii) Low Economic

Growth

(engendered by energy crisis),

Planning lor societal development would hence aim at eliminating these blocking factors that impede the progress of a society toward higher viability. In the context ol the conjoint regulation of variables, this aspect of planning leads to a paradigm for the planning methodology'

A Paradigm of Planning Methodology

Such

a paradigm may be outlined as follows:

It consists of a number of sequential steps that are' linked together in a cYclical Pattern.

0d

bevelopment of

fotai Society Systens

fim" pflfr and performance Panels of a Society for a decade or moie.Validated

I

I I

ot sv(l'L, Variables in Non-Viable Diagnostic Categories,

Frequency

Classification of the t\ion-viable Variables into the ll, hl and Hl Categories'=---,the Blocking Factors,.

(ii i)

(iv)

Order oJ Planniirj Priority for the Variables i.e., , Hl>hl>ll

I I

Specification ot JI]".u"nt Variables and Control f nteractiori Factors.

Diagnostic Status of the Variables in (V) and the Order of Priority amongst therir,'

Cybernetic Anaiysis oi Indian Sociemi Sysiem

I
I I

91

t
I'
I

(vii) Formulation of Policids, Decisions and Actions Involving all the Precedent and Control lnteraction Variables coniointly '
I

.i

I I
I I
I I

I I

(viii) Testinq for Mutual Consistency and Noncontradiction amongst the Policies, Decisions and Actions.
I

3
o o q

I
I I

I
I

Extension of (viii) to All the Variables ldentified for Planning in (iv)

(ix)

z
o
_9

q,

o o q)

(x)
lm
P

lementation
I
I

,l

I I

(xi) Monitoring ol the Res ults

I

I I

Computation ol the Changed Time Path ' of the System

(xii)

Diagram Number Fourteen

s2

beveiopment of Total Society Ssytenti

The implementation of the above planning paradigm for societal development would require the creation of a sensitive and adequate management information and control system foi the monitoring of a systems' status, behavioul and random exogenous factors,
Routes of Societal planning
Societal viability and political stability is the primary focus of planning lor total society systems. In terms of this global objective, primacy is accorded to the regulation of any variable in the Hf diagnostic category. lt represents the preventive as. pect of the planning process and requires the conioint regulation of a set of interacting variables. In its forward and positive aspect, the planning process may proceed along anyone of the following three routes :

(i) (ii)

maximization of system viability i.e.; GS, maximization of the quality of societal life and
viz.,

(iii) maximal use of the most controllable variables

education and investible resou rces.
They are considered one by one as below.

(i)
et and

pu,

pmp reiluires the conscious pursuit of a peace policy by a government, The outcome of such a policy is however essenti_ ally uncertain. Reduction of el and pu primarily depends on the regulation of eg and pg. Eg depends on ae and ir, Administra_ tive effectiveness depends on ed. population growth depends on ed and h/ which in turn depend on lr, Hence in the final analysis we are led to ed and /r as the two basic measures for

Maximization of GS depends on the reduction ol pmp, They are the three constituents of fpg. Reduction of

Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal S2stem

93

increasing as below :

GS,

Schematically,

the

analysis may be represented

peace PolicY

and

f/,

(ii)

pu, et' ed Quality ol societal life is constituted of GS, following : Schematic analysis here reveals the

(a)

GS

,'^ ecr
(b)
pu, el

jt

as

in (i)

as

in (i)

(c)

ed

.i:
(d)
hl

94
measures.

Development of Total Society Systems.

Thus here also we find the same two bassic underlying

(iii) Education and investible resources are here the very points of departufe for societal planning.
We hence find that all the three planning routes converge towards the same starting points. This convergence is how_ ver not accidental. lt accords with the developmental experi_ enca of the communist societies. The planning process of USSR, China, Cuba and East European nations has historically been oriented around these two bases. They have attempted a maxi_ mal mobilization of internal resources for investment in the eco_ nomy. For this purpose, they have severely restricted internal consumption and kept wages at relatively low levels in the initial stages of their development. They also initiated intensive drives of propaganda, communication and ,re-education'to reach down to their individual citizens through party cadres and mass media. They tried and succeeded in removing illiteracy within historically very short periods. Their planning strategy as backward societies is hence seen to be based on their sustained manipu_ lation of the two most important controlrabie reveis of societal
system
c

hange.

Communist societies however seem to have escaped the relentless pressures of a high rate of population growth facing the developing societies of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Population growth with its very high salience disrupts the deve_ lopmental process by amplifying the stresses of inflation and. unem ployment. lt is a very important causal factor underlying the malaise of poor and backward societies apart from the external impacts of energy crisis and deteriorating terms of world trade. The success of communist societies in managing their population problem whether by accident or design is hgwever

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Socletal System

95

entirely consistent with their highly literate citizenryr'*. Education emerges as the dominant influence on this aspect of their development process apart from its impact on their administiative effectiveness. The planning route {oi societal systems is hence seen lo pass through ir and ed, Low population growth rate as a common characteristic of the developed societies is the direct outcomc of their fully literate citizenry. Communist societies have been able to develop by following a planning strategy oriented around lr and ed. Their high literacy has enabled them to manage the problems of population pressufe. Westein societies historically received their investible resources through colonial expansion (positive exogenous impact on ir and ed). High level of their literacy and knowledge base has enabled them to reduce theii population growth and increase productivity. Backward societios are on the other hand caught in the cumu!ative ill-effects of ignorance (low ed), poverty (low ft) and numbers (high pg). Education (including population reduction) hence emerges as their most effectlve optionr

The Process of Societal Transformation : The strategy of planning and development of total society systems outlined here would be applicable to any illiterate and ill-developed society. lt does not lower the imoortance of economic gr6wth lor societal transformation. lt iather recognizes the constraints implicit in attain;69 high rates of economic growth i.e., its nature as a high constraint variable in a societal system. The transformation strategy therefore approaches the task of development by changing system behaviour through a 1 The relationship betwen education and the drastic decline in birth rate achieved byabackward sociely like China is brought out by Victor Li thus : 'Perhaps the greatest changes were achieved through education. --. a decision-maker in China believes that education can affect people's behaviour, Everyone in China is involved in a process called "study' in which group of people discuss topics ranging from family planning to the Thoughts ol Chairman Mao. Ouring ,,normtl" per,ods, the Chinese average len to twelve hours oJ study lvery week,
Suchatremendous and sustaineil educational process covering very single citizen every day produces lasting changes in ths citizen's- attitu. des and behavlour. lt leads to the results desired by na onal leadership in many areas including lamiiy planning. China is estimated to hav.e reduced its population growth rate from 1.8% in tha flfties to 1.8%
in lhe seventles.

Carl Djorassi etat,

'qirth_ Control in the People's Republic oi Chlna', T!t9 Bulle.tin of-- the American Academy of Arts and
scr?nces, Vot.

XXVll, No, 8,

1574,

p, 46,

96

Development

of Total Society Systems

dominant (i.e. the most controllable) lever of system change, Economic development then follows as a bye-product of the planning strategy.
Education as the basal lever of societal transfoimation im_ proves administrative effectiveness which in turn promotes eco_ nomic growth by increasing the efticiency and productivity of resource utilization. Education here also serves to reduce the population growth rate severely, The reduced rate of population growth reduces inflation immediately. Unemployment however remains'unaffected in the short run. Reduction of price rise and unemployment is the main function of economic growth in the system. Reduced population growth rate hence takes over a part ol the role of economic growth in the present context. It thereby lessens the pressures of public unrest and ethnic ten_ sion on government stability. Higher government stability on account ol lower public unrest and ethnic tension tends to reduce politico-m ilitary pressure and improve administrative effective_ ness. Lower politico-military pressure leads to more investible resources which together with, hlgher administrative effective_ ness generate further economic growth, The societal transfor_ mation thiough education aims at generating endogenous pres_

mation for the backward and poor systems. lnvestible resources present a serious limiting factor fof them on account of

suies toward self-sustained economic growth in a system, Overall development of the system follows in consequence. Education is hence seen to be the sole basal factor of transfor_

system transformation initiated by education may be depicted as follows : (Diagram No. 15)
Development of societies is a continuing process. After a society has acquired a fully literate citizenry, its further develop_ ment depends on a continuing reduction of population growih rate and politico-military pressure. With zero rate of population growth and low values of politico-milita iy pressure, a societal system would be able to enter the hyper stable (HS) ione of maximum system viability.

poverty. The process

of

their

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal Systems

97

ED

v
hig
hrg

lo

and

lo'

{
I

ower pu
I

Y
I

ower pm
I

Y
I

igher ir

The Process of System Tronsformation Diagram Number Fifteen

Some Core Problems of Indian Society and the Limits of their Solution
Viability of a societal system depends on the viability of its variables, System variables with low viability feflect the problems of the system. ln {his chapter, we examine some of the problems of the Indian system and investigate the reguirements of

th6ii solutions individually. The problems

employment, .qconomic growth, administrative effectiveness, public unrest and ethnic tension are dealt with here in this manner. Methodological considerations of the preceding chapter have however pointed out that these requirements can11ot be met unless a number of the ielevant interacting variables are iegulated togelher in a conjoint manne,.

of

inflation, un-

detelminants of inflation are the economic gfowth and the population growth. Exogenous factors like the higher cost of imports and the scarcity created bv weather are other random factors that influence the inflationarv tendencies. Current rate of population growth in India ls esti inated at 2.3o/o. Treating it as a constant, the annual rates of price rise corresponding to the varying rates of economic growth are given in the diagram number sixteen, ,price Rise, Economic Growth and Population Growth Rate., The relationship shows that given an economic growth rate of Bo/o in real terms, the corresponding rate of price rise would not be less than 6"/o. At Za/c eg rate, the pr would go up to more than 11o/o, With eg rates of 1o/o or so during a drought period, the pr would shoot up to 18fi or more. For containing price rise to 4o/o only, an eg_rate of 6.50/o would be needed. Such high iates of eS ho*_ ver do not appear to be realizable in a sustained manner at
present,

Inflriiion: The prime

Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal Systems

99

s
I ---| I
2Z
I

Rclotionshrp betwcen Economlc Ofowth ond Frrce Rise Corresponding to populs G{owth Ro.te ol 0.9 % Rctotionship bclwc.n Economtc Growth .- ond Price Rise Corresponding to Populotio Orowth Rote of Z 3 %

I I I

I
I

tg

I ltt
I

I I t I t

I
I I
I

ur '14
t/l

I I
I

ct .o

9t?
r0

\ \
I

z
LJ
0"

I I
6

t_. \-

,_3golo > PR>22,t^ ,/ 30"/.<EG66S%

/ \ l\l-\'-\\ \
i 6^' O ', ' 2 '

,\-/--ir-\
-\.- /

-\

_/\_

\
' , r
t

, , ' ' ', , 'l, 'l- ' 4 6 l0t2t1 E l)ERCEI{T ECONOMIC 6R0wTH -+

lG

Frice Rbe

Eeoicnnc Growth

ond Populotlon growth Rgtg

Diagram Number Sixteen

100

Some Core

probleus and Limits of their Solution

The inference follows that under the present conditions, the problem ol inflation would continue to persist as unreeolved unless the pg ra\e is reduced. With even sllghtly highet'rates of pg, the rates of pr would be dispioportionately higher. lf however the pg iate can be brought down, the impact on pr would be direct and immediate. Foi a given level of eg iate, the price rise would then be lower, ln the event ol a pg rate. of 0.9o/o the iates ol pr corresponding to the some rates of eg afe shown in the unbroken curve in the diagram, Economic growth rate of 3o/o here would produce a price rise of 3.8o/" only; eg iates of 6.50/" would lead lo a pr of only 2.2oft. With 4o/o ordinary rate of eg, the system can achieve prlce stability at 3o/o of price iise only. With lower rates of pg, the price stability would be still greater.

f:r

Unemployment; Population growth and economic growth are also the determinants of unemployment in the system, Reduction ol pg rate in this context would however affect ue only a{ter a period, of 17-18 years. In the immediate short fun period, ieduced pg rates affect inflation only, not employment. Relationship between unemployment and
economic giowth at the level ol 2.3% population growth rate is depicted in the diagram number seventeen. The relationship here shows that for reducing ue to 3o/o, 'l0o/o eg rate would be required. For reducing ue to 5o/o only, an eg rate ol 7.5a/" would be required. With 5% eg tate, ue would peisist at the level of
6.50/o

inference here emerges that this problem can effectively,be resolved only after a period of 17 years from the year of reduced population. growlh rate, With a pg rate of 0.9o/o, ue would be brought down to 4o/o only through an ordinary eg rate ol 3/o. At 2.3o/o pS rate, full employment (i.e, 1% ue rate only) would require an eg rate of 11%-12oh. At 0.9% rate of pg, full employment would be achieved with 7To-8o/o eg rate only.

of the total working population. The

Cybornetlc Ano lysis of Indian Societal Systerti

101

33%
31

25

t5

6,5% > UE > 5'r. 5% < Ec < 7.5 %

|21
I

lt9

zt7 :
trJ uJ

6rs

lts
3rr
E7 tu
c
q 3

2t t!

\- --+--z
11 13 13
14

OlZ3tr56789l0
."PERCENT ECONOMIC GROWTH

----->

Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth Corresponding to Population Growth Rate of 2'3o/o'

Diagram Number Seventeen

t02

Some Co're proiblems and Limits of their Solution

' .-' '.

Administrative Efiecliveness : Low valucs of ae characterize the 'soft' states, lts determinants are ed and gs. At the current level of system stability (i.e., gs:0.52 in 1976), a fully literate .'-i-iilljhercitizenry would increase the level of ae upto 0.681. Such ievel of ae would then ri" .n rates by 1o/o to 2o/o within a relatively short term period. 'n.r"uu. Th! resuttant casca_ ..,,r ' ding effects on other system variables would increase the viabi_ lity ol the total system.

'

-' ' . -. . ..

Economic Growth: System determinants of economic growth rate are the investibre resources, administrative effectiveness and the random exogenous Jactors like weathei, new technology and the inflow of resources. Investible resources depend on internar and exterrrar peace. Administrative effectiveness depends on education and political stability. Adminis_ trative effectiveness can be increased to a limited extent only by the imagination and poriticar wiil of the goveinment. rt cannot however be sustained at high revers in th-e absence of the correspondingly high levels of literacy and communication medla use by the population. Reduction ol pmp along the exogenous dimension depends on the uncertain responses of other govern_ ments. lt can however temporaiily be reduced by linkages and relations with other societal systems. Given a reduced pmp level o{ 0.37 only and a fully literate citizenry, eg rates u pto 7o/o are achievable in the absence of random Uisturoances. With the same pmp level and the.cu.rrent level of ae (including the impact of emergency measures), the Indian system can achieve eg rates upto 4.bo/o only in real terms. Higher growtn rates are unachievable except under the conditions ot-agood monsoons and other unforseen random factors.
economic insecu rities
creasin

public Unrest: public unrest g,nu,' o,on"."n,",lA;f

is

determineO

emotionally important national events may also contribute to it, Both pr and ue depend upon eg and pg, For a given level of eg, the reduction

il:t"r:il:''fl

by the Jflfl ",:"il,:, jl;

pr brought about by the lower pg rates. ReJuction in pu brought about by the reduction. in..pg rate i. a"pi.t.A in .the diagram number eighteen, This diagram shows ttte,behaviour of pu in a

in pu then can come only through reduced

iybernetic

Analysis oJ Indian Societul Syueni

i0J

societal system coriesponding to vaiiations in.eg rates only. The two pg rates specified are 2.3o/o and 0.9o/o respectively. The difference in pu in two cases varies from 5o/o to 0.9o/o depending upon the magnitude of eg rate. This reduction comes about only through the reduction in pr, Levels of ue are unresponsive to changes in pg rale in the short run. Public unrest corresponding to 3o/o eg rate declines from 0.5 to 0.41 when the pg rate goes down to 0,9o/o from 2.3o/o, Such a reduction has important consequences lor system stability,
o.e

PU with PG =
Fl,J

2.3 % 0.9 %

wlth

PG

o.rf

'1
I I

06

E z
t

F tt

0.45

c J
G

os

0.r5

r0t2 -_+

14

PERCENT ECONOMIC GPOWTH

Relotionship bctwcen Economic Growth ot Given Lcvcls of Populotion Growth

ond public

Unrcst

Diagram Number Eighteen

,:.

, :.!'..:. ETHNIC TENSION r Each societal system is chafacterized byla base value of ethnic tension that depends on the ideologircal cleavages of race, caste, community, language, poiitics, region, religiori and historical factors. This value fluctuates in accordance with the fluctuations in pu Problems ol inflation and unemployment accentuate the internal cleavages within a social order, Reduction of el in the short run would hence also depend on the reduction of pg for the given levels of eg. In the long run, both pu and eJ would be affected by thc impact of !-Q!v F9 lateq oq urem plo.y_me.nt. Ethnic- _tqnsions would however also be affected by the changes produced in religion (or ideology) by education. To the extent, the process of ed (including mass communication) succe_eds in promoting
national integration, the resultant reduction oJ sectarian attitudes and beliefs would reduce the amount of internal divisiveness within a social order. Karl Deutsch has traced the verv emergence ol nationalism to social communication.

101

Some Core problems and Limits of their Solutioit

The foregoing individual approach to system problems limits to their solutions that can be achieved under present conditions. The implementation of any solution the
revcals the

corjoint regulation of a number 'bf interacting variables, The regulation of any of. the variables in this Iist would in turn require the conjoint regulation of another set oJ variables and so on. Qne gets involved in the inter-locking pattern of system dynamics from whatever direction one tries to regulate the system behaviour. This dictates the need for a comprehensive strategy for system development instead oJ an individual piecemeal approach to societal probiems.
Ansther interesting aspect that emerges lrom the analysis of each of the foregoing six probiems, is the requirement pg reduction or ed increase or ae improvement. Both pg reduc'tion and ae improvement however directly depend on ed increase. Hence ed again emerges as the lever ol overall system change
and deevlopment,

requirement i.e., the regulation of a vgriable however requires the

,9
Transformation of the Indian Societal System
The blocking factors of the Indian system were listed earlier. The channeling of planning effort for the transfoimation of Indian society also revolves around the two basal levers of system change i.e., investible resources and education' lt may however be pointed out that for poor societies like India ft itself is a major limitation. Moreover, since the filter between ir and eg is administrative effectiveness (ae)' education as a change lever comes into the picture again' Administrative
eftectiveness is directly dependent on

The low neglectand values of ed lead to incompetence, inefticiency, mismanagement in administration leading to poor utilization and wastage of the scarce productive resources' Furthermore, the level of lr itseli cannot be raised beyond a certain limit owing to inherent resource constraints ol the poorer societies' This planned societal leaves only education as the dominant lever of societal developtransformation. Education in the context 9f ment implies the literacy of even its poorest citizens' lt implies their educative use of the communication media like news' papers, radio and television for their meaningful role in national ieconstruction. lt means the education of millions of small peasants, fishermen, artisans and wokers for higher productivity and skills upgradation. lt means intensive research and development efiorts for the solution of problems impeding national economy in its diverse productive fields. lt means the educa' tion of citizens for health care and family planning' In short' it means the awareness and undeistanding by every citizen of the nation's major problems and his role in their resolution for hiS own benefit.
besides

cd

GS'

106

iransjormation of tite Indian iocietal Syvein

Full literacy of the citizenry by itself would markedly affect the behaviour of Indian societal system. Disregarding the inevitable and concomitant im pact of f ull literacy on the reduction of population growth rate, the consequences of the spread ol education on a society wide plane would be as follows:

Administiative effectiveness (ae) would improve by 0.18 tr or 18o/". (ii) Economic growth (eg) would increase by 1o/"'to 2o/" depending upon the original placement of eg in its viability segment. lf the economic growth originally would have been less than 1o/o, it would increase by an additional 1o/0. lf it were originally 2o/o or more, the increase would be about 2o/o. (iii) Depending u'pon the increment in e* ue would be reduced by 1o/o to So/o. (iv) Similarly pr would be reduced by 2o/, to 4'/". (v) Public uniest (pa) wouid go down by 1.So/" to Oo7. (vi) Ethnic tension (er) would decrease by 1'/, to Zo/r. (vii) The resultant inc rease in system viability would be trom 1o/o to 2.5o/o,

(i)

In very difficult situations like military perils and acute droughts, these improvements may make all the diffeience between national survival and collapse.
lmpact of ed, would however also powerfully aftect pg. In no societal system of the world, full literacy of the citizenry and high population growth rate are found to co_exist together*. Education here implies a change of attitudes and beliels in terms of a growing scientific world view and it produces an inevitable impact on the unrestrained population growth. Reduction of pg in turn leads to reduction ol pr, ue (after 15_1g years), pu and et and thence to higher GS in a chain reaction. The initial chain reaction grows stronger by its continual cycling upon itself in a spirar pattern. lf in the non-too-distant future,

loyy pg rato.

Strong traditions of rellgion are however

apt to act as. lmpediments !o

Analysis of Indian Societal System

107

Indian society is able to achieve the full literacy of its citizens and consequently a reduced pg rate oI 0 '9o/o' the resultant impact would lead to the system's translormation. The Indian societal system would then be able to meet the piessures lrom oth6r societies and the acute drought situations effectively. lt would be able to overcome the malaise of internal disorders and divisiveness in a lasting manner' Such a state of societal development is representable in the {orm of a performance panel table as follows. The panei diagram number nineteen is also given along side,

Inspectlon of this performance panel reveals the following salient aspect ol the society's transformed state : (i) The course of the system has stabilized at a high level of viability i.e, from // and /5 cells to hS cell.

(ii) ''

Serious drought situations have become manageable i,"., they no longer destabilize the system This is brought out by the system's behaviour in years t+3 and t*4.

(iii)

Future growth proceeds along the reduction of politico-m ilitary pressure. With pmp:Q.$7' the couise of the system moves up to the levels given under the years t-l-6 and t |7, System viability moves way up
in the hS cell. High level of leadership no longer mattrs in ihe context of political stability in the society' With further reductions in pg rate and pmp level, the viability of the system would rise still further'

(iv)

A comparison o{ this performance panel with the performance panel number four for the years 1975-80, brings out the magnitude of the system's transformation achieved here. Performdnce Panel four of chapter five represents an optimistic picture of the societal situation during 1976-80 period under the prevailing set ol circumstances. In a lurther contrast, the level ol pmp in the transformed system state is higher in the first six
year$

i08
J! -tf F-

Transformation of the Indtan Societal System

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Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societal System

109

I
E

I t' 2

.,

*t
q) a)

t o
2 a

z
^\ j\ '
=

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t.

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l.
.l

? 2 2

t
a

t'
I

3 c

-J

1.

'#k

lt0

Transformatlon of Indian Societal System

of the viability octagon. The process of developmental transformation pictured herewould be applicable to any illiterate and ill_develoned society with appropriate contextuar modifications. system with a high lavel of leadership (ldf) would however be in a better
position to implement this strategy a sustained manner.

panding or contracting volumes

the othei hand given by the outermost octagonall ofwhose nodes have the (l) value of one. The process of societal deve_ lopment or regress may then be visualized in terms ol the ex_ ,

formed by connecting the adjacent nodes together, then sefves to depict the actual viability volume realised in a particular year. The potential (maximum) viability volume of the system is on

A compaiative repiesentation of the status of system viabi_ fity during the years 19?9, 1976, t and t*7 is ouflined in the diagram number twenty. The diagram depicts changes in the viability volume of the system along an octagon. The nodes of the octaggn repiesent the viability volume (tr) of the system variables measured along a scale of zero to one. The octagon

of

societal transformation in

V.ir;
'*

ii It /
\

\*
\\!

\i'

:\ -\.\ \.\ \

tf\

l,!''.)

15'

Viability Volumes ol Indian Society Diagram Number Twenty

to
Fundaments of a Steering System for

Indian Society'
Basic orientation of steering a societal system is towards maximising its tolal viability with special .. reference to ils non-viable variables. Such an orientation is conceptually different fro rn- the-exclusive..csncern with economic growth, inflation,rr and uriqm ployment of the econo.m.i.i ptan.nin.g.. The process of 'the integration of the -administrative, steering. here invo-lyes econom ic,, edu-cational, m i I itary, pol itical and social policie.s.{pd measures. This integration is designed to augment the viability of all the system variab-les concomitantly, lt thereby serves to efiectively strengthen the system .as-'a' whole. Viability of the system (Z;and GS) closely reflects the nature and the statug of political stability in a society. Political stability or regulator viability constitutes the cruc[al conclifibn foi- achi6ving system development goals including the economic ones.

Information and Regulation

Steering of a system hence involves a viable operation of its regulator. Regulatorv process however depends on information, Infoimation is needed about variables needing regulation, endogenous and exogenous variables affecting them, changes occurring in them as a result of control measures and the gaps between their current and desired states. The regulatory process and its dependence on information may be depicted as below :

The diagfam dcpicts two negative cycles involved in the process of control. Pioblem variables. are affected by endogenous and random xogenous factors. Their statug is

l12

Fundaments of a Steering System

enous Vtrables an

for Indian

Society

ll(-t

Rarults ol Acrion

,t't'"'"';"''o'"'\
IIIFORMATION
EASE

l(-)

EvElsetieo

Rgul6torv ? todest and Inlornslion

<-<*-+}{>
OEgtam

Two rivy tn{otmatioD Ftog,

ilqlnltir fw'fitf

Ooc

evaluated leading to reievant decisions and actions. Results of action then affect the problem variables along with the impacting endogenous and exogenous factors. The cycles start again with the status evaluation ol problem variables. Both the cycles are here seeking to stabilize the problem lvariables at a desired high level of regulatedness But each phase rof _the regulatory cycle requires timely and correct information. qEvaluation in{ormation, decision inlormation, action information and results inlormation are needed in a continuous manner from an inJormation base. . This information base monitors, collects, processes and stores informatign for use .in the regulatory processes. Incorrect, irrelevant, inadequate and delayed information would render the control'proceSs ineffective, i'. .,,*! _,. j

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Socletal System

113

Every self-governing system possesses an infoamation dnd

control system that holds it together. lt directs and coordinateg a system's goal seeking activities in response to change in its environment. Such an inlormation and control system is seen to be chaiacterized by a universal logic of its invariant functions irrespective of th nature of a self-governing system. Biological organisms, com plex-automatic artifacts, human organizations and societies govern themselves through an identical set of basic information and control funtions. Structural counterparts of these fUnctions may differ across the class and types of autonomous system. But the functional requirements themselves remain
invariant. These iequirements are
:

(i) the sensing and monitoring ol external and internal (ii) (iii)
(iv) (v)
(vi)
environment of the sYstem. the reception, processing and stoiage of information.

the retrieval of information from memory foi comparison with the incoming information.

decision-making according to inbuilt and learned logical criteria. transmission of control instiuctions i'e.' the directive
inlorm atio n and

the implementation of action.

The result of action as well as other changes in the environment aie resensed and the control cycle continues incessantly. In the process, the memory gets continually loaded with information (experience and learning) and comes to store an image (engram) of the environment. ln accordance with the above basic {unctional requiie' ments, every information and control system possesses a set of functional blocks designated as sensors, information processihg element, storage function, logico-decision element, command plans, f unction, efiectors and memory.l.* -Memory stores the and an engram of the environment, The goals, experience

14

Funilaments of a Steering System

for Inilian Society

functional blocks and their linkages together deflne the invariant analog of an information and control gystem ao below :
SY STE

M EOUN

ANY

NVIRONMENT

^/
Sensors

Memolv Storing
Pl8ns,
E

Goals,
rg ram of

and

Monitorng
Lo0ico-decision
EnvirOnmental Changes

Environme nt

omparato Fu nctio n

Information Storags Function

CybernEric Anslog ol an Infor matlon

and Control Syst.m

Informstion P.lh

-+-q-

Dlagram Number Twenty Two

Concrete structural organs coiresponding to the above universal control function blocks may difier fiom system to system. In a biological system like a human ofganism, sense organs like ear, eye, nose and skin serve as the sensors. Neural channels cafry information bearing signals to brain where they are pfocessed stoied and compared, Memoiy, comparator and logico-decision elements correspond to differont functional areas of the human biain. Command function consist in the tfansmisslon of decieion information through neural channels to the effectgr oigang like hands and legs, Experience in the lorm

Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal

System

lls
view

of stofed information accounts

foi an individual's world

and image (i.o,, a model) of the environment in his memory.

Information and contiol system of a self-goveining system operates incessantly to achieve its goals, to protect it from disturbances and to assure its survival, lt functions through a timely integration of information, decisions and action regarding the

problems confronting the system.

lt

steers

self-regulating

eystem in a variable environment towards adaptation,

Information and Gontrol Syslem for a Society

Society as a self-governing system also steers itself through its information and control system. Information and control system of a society is usually a historical outgrowth of its state apparatus and governing oigans. lt often suffers from a number of logical incon sistenc ies, delays, inadequacies and structural defects, Cybernetic analysis of societal systems provides a consistent basis for designing the information and conirol syslem of a society in a logically coherent manner, Design of each of its functional blocks from sensors to efiectors is here guided by the inputs it has to accept, the opefations it has to perfofm and the outputs it has to produce. The content of each block is based on the basic multicycle pattern of a societal
sy stem,

A vely brief discussion of an infofmation and control 'system design {or a society is given as follows: system would monitor and and information signals pertaining to endogenous and random exogenous variables, The
SENSORS

of a societal

receive data iteffls

hierarchic organization of data collection here would be from villages to districts to provincial regions,to province for each province of a nation. Endogenous variables woulq be monitore
in terms of an area focus Exogenous variables would be monitor ed for each impacting society (pmp, trade relations, economic exclranges. political and scientific cooperation etc.,) and each category, weathci (floods and droughts), natural resources and

116
lined as below l

Funilaments of

Steering System

lor

Indian Society
out-

new technologies

etc.). This pattefn may be synoptically

Data ltems
Categories of lnformation

Endogenous Variables

Exogenous Vaiiables
N

National Rgions
a

New

T
e
h n

t
u

t
S-tates Regions
i

a
I

t
h

o
I

o
D

s
o
u

istricts

s
I

Cities

Villages

r c e
s

sefies of multiplexed digital computers would scan, monitor and collect a continuous series of relevant data on a periodic basis which would be transmitted to a central processor foi analysis and storage, Each variable wouid be subdivided into a numbei of attiibutes and measures depending upon the' requirements of planning at different hieraichic levels' Administrative effectiveness (ae) for example would be divisible into the

following generalized information categories industrial agricultural programmes ad m inistratio n and

population

control
mes researc h

program- order

law and

energY and

power proiects

proiects and developmont

p ro

ublic tax and revenue efiort tration collecdelence

p

adminis'

literacy grammes

internal security

tion

Cybernetic Anaiysis of intitan Societal Systunl Each of these categories

11?

would be divisible into a number of sub-categories depending upon the nature of regulatory requirements and changing key results areas at different levels' The contents of these segments would be collected, updated

and appraised in terms of the impact of GS and ed on them and their bearing on the eg rate' All the variables would be disaggregated in a similar manner. The signi{icance of any particular information category may be determined on the basis

of

the Jollowing lormula

n

s' lsi : -n ) j:l

ni loo' ni

where, /sj is the information significance of the item/catgory a variable l; n is the number of items/categories associated within decision and pl is the lrequency of use of the. itemi category,l making at a given level of regulatory hierarchy'

INFORMATION PROCESSING and STORAGE function and information blocks would process the incoming data items information modules' and organize them in a series of interlinked of a salient variable' its an information module would' consist Each variable precedent variables and its output variables' as dis' be disaggregated into its own salient categories

iould .*'.oearlier.Thisfunctionalb|ockinthepresentcontext. modules would hence consist of a set ol seven information

headed by the seven salient variables

GS' eg' pmp' et' pg' ir and ed. The modules would be interlinked through the rnodule' The schematic variables that occur In more than one of the societal information modules and their
arrangements

i'e'

.rtrJt

tinkug"s is depicted in the diagram number twenty three'

be composed of historical' summary and current information files. Each file would be oriented be outlined around a constituent variable' A file structure may
Each module would

as below

It{

Fundaments

oj a

Steering System 7or

indian Society

tl
ttl
C'

ul

o o

L F
(D

6)

5
t''i '
(D

6 o
e'

6
J

e
F

z
bo
G'

o
o g p

:E

c o

I c
o c

Cybernetic Anaiysis oi ndian Societai Syueni

119

Attributes
Cate-

Attribute

1,

Attribute

gory

Category

Measure

1,1 --------Measure

l,m

Category

Measure h, 1

-*------Measuie

n'm

It may superflcially be exemplified with respect to pu variable as below

:

File Stfucture

of

Public Unrest Variable

(3) and D ura-

Attributes (1) (2)

(4)
sity

(5)

(6)

Locale Forms Period lnten- Trend Admi'

nistrattion
ive Response

CategorY
Population Segment
I

9 3

files would Historical, summary and cuirent information *.'"'l Master tl: together {ofm the basis of a master file' :l:,t9 updated in the otier files would be stored and periodically Selective contents system's information storage function block' a part of oi the master file ol all iniormation modules become

120

Funriaments of a Steering Systm

jor hdian iociety

the system's memory. They undeilie a system,s learning, ex_ perience and engram of the environment.

decision element

COMPARATOR FUNCTION here would be concerned a performance paner Jor the current periods and year onthe basis of currenfly processed inioimation, The updated panel status so prepared would ba compared with the panel (s) that formed the basis of prognoses and predictive inJerence regarding the system's present and future behaviour. This functional block is essentially concerned with carrying out the assessments of the system's recent experiences and peifor_ mance at periodic frequency. Existing levels of goal attainment ale compared with those planned fof the same periods. This block interacts with the system's memory, information process_ ing and storage functions and serves as input to the logico_

with the preparation of

MEMORY stores the multicycle model of the society, planned societal goals under varying conditions, perfofmance panels corresponding to malor contingencies and an Inventory of the system's capabilities, limitation unA ,".pon."r. lt is a repository of the system's experiences of its past tand presen successes and failures.

selects.and fetains thbt part of information which is rerated to the system's goals, activities and previou" here are the maintenance and growth "*i"-n"n.".. Goals oI societal stability and viability. Selection and retention of information by memory represents a system's learning. Accretion of information and higher information levels form ihe nuri, oi.i*g". in u .y.t"r,. operational goals, activities and organization "structure. Such a change pfocess represents a system,s adaptation based on its learning, Memory, rearning and adaptation are hence seen to be the logically inter-related aspects of this control function ll:..1: Together, they underline a society,s .upu.,,, tor. un intelligent management of its affairs. fntef the system's ability to o.perate viably tigence nere signifies under a wide variety

- Memory grows.upon itself. lt is the terminal point of in_ formalion entering a system through its sensors. Memory

Cybernetic Analysis of indian Societai Systen

t)l

of conditions. lt signifies the appiopriate selection of control responses based on the best availability and use of information lor decision and action. LOGICO-DECISION ELEMENT is concerned with the cause-based and error-based regulatory responses' Causal basis of regulation is provided by the multi-cycle model of system dynamics in the control system's memory. Methodology ol societal planning based on foresight (i'e., performance panels) governs the system's cause based regulatory responses. Support for the error-based regulation is provided by the comparator function. This block hence utilizes both the modes of regulation in its assessment ol problems, allocation of resources and initiation of time bound programmes concerning diverse sectors of societal operations, lt is also concerned with improving and devising various administrative and managerial procedures for the important organs of the state. lt prepaies scenarios and policy analyses through the evaluation of specific indicators and consequences. lt determines in an overall manner the general response pattern of a societal system. COMMAND FUNCTION is concerned with the hierarchic transmission and amplification of directive information emitted by the logico-decision element. lts orbit covers the entire pattern of administrative hierarchy from cential government to village level administration downwards. Delays and noise in the hierarchic information transmission and amplification here lead to serious errors in the execution of policies and decisions at the successive levels ol administration. . Apex level organization of the command function has to conform here to a pattern of the reticular formation of nerves and 'the redundancy of potential comrnanp'. It signifies in the present context a flexible and shifting focus ol dominance within a government's sub-systems Dominance of subsystem would depend upon the changing nature of external developments and the critical information available during a given period, The commanding position of sub-system during a given period depends upon the relatively important role it may have to play in the government's performance under a given st ol conditions.. Military, agriculfurg,

'.,:'

122

Funilaments

ojo Struirg Syurnjo, indian Societ,

indusky, tiade and public administiation sub_systems may variously assume the focus of command in a system,s performance during different periods. Their dominance depends upon the environmental and internal changes. Military would dominate under conditions of war; agriculture would dominate under conditions of food shoitage, industry would donoinate under the requirements of import reduction and so on. More than one sub-system may acquire dominance during specific and contingent periods.
The concept of the redundancy of, potential command is related to the insight provided by Warren McCulloch's work

lormation of nerves, any particular ganglion of nerve cells or a local plexus of the net work may achieve command subject to its acquisition and processing of critical informaton during a given moment.This leature of a nerve, net where any cell giouping can potentially assume command was termed by McCulloch as ,th redundancy of potential command,. Command function's design on its basis implies a regutatory system's recognition of the need to change the foci of its internal endavours from time to time. The multiplicity of the foci of dominance or command centres is essentiai for a system,s adaptation to repid changes in its environment.
EFFECTORS aie the various state ofgans that actually carry out the commands of a system's peak level control i.e., the highest level of the governmental authority. Foi a society as a whole, they afe arranged in a hierarchic ofder from central government organizations and personnel to village level organs and personnel. .lt is what all of them do and accomplish as effectors that constitutes a society's actual response to its ex. teinal and intrnal problems. ln centralized communist socie_ ties, every citizen whether a worker, farmer, teacher, doctor or an engineer berongs to a state organ, His occupationar status is defined with reference to one or more of the government or_ ganization'. The concept of effectors therefore extends to every citizen direcfly in a comm unist society, In western socitis, the role of citizens as effctors is inteipretable as the constituents of a decentralized and distributed control system,

nerve

nets. In the reticular

on

Cybernetic Analysis oj indian Sopienl The concept

Sysiem

ltl

of citizens as efiectors provides another inpivotal role ol education as the instiument of sight into the societal transformation. Education involves a growing volume of information and communication process. They go to affect the attitudes and behaviours of the citizens i.e., their role as
system effectors.

System Design at Micro Levels

The pattern of an information and contiol system outlined above is recursive, lt is applicable to micro-level parts of a society i.e., specific organizations. and institutions in an analogous manner. An army, a government ministfy, an industry, an educational institution, a research and development organization, an urban government and a village level administration can all be interpreted in terms of the information control system

block diagram. Sensors

would be applicable to them at their respective levels of functional structuie, This pattern and logic of recursion makes possible a redesigning of social order. Design process of an irtformation and control system can hence range from a group of villages, towns and regions to a total society system. It cin range across specific industiial, educational and administrative organizations to an industry as a whole, to educational system of a pfovince and to total administiative machinery of an area. System design effort has to embrace both the micro and the macro levels ol ol a societal system for its self-sustaining development.

to

effector classificatian paradigm

Concomitant processes of system design at micro and macfo levels would require an extensive support system of a network of digital computere. They would serve to link up a whole society in a fast cifculatory system of communication and control. Such a large and fast system of communication would result in a multiple increase in the volume 6nd velocity of information circulation within a societv.

124

Fundaments oJ a steering Syuem

for Indian

Sociery

Information, Education and Societal Steering : Information is the basis of regulation and ofganization in dynamic systems. lts higher and lower volumes of cifculation within a society would directly affect its capacity fof selfsteering. Infofmation is the foundation of intelligence (i.e., response selection), Iearning and resilience in self-regulating systems. Steering of a society is therefore ciucially dependent on its inlormation and control system. Greater the circulation of in_ {ormation within and between the constituent parts of a society as a whole, the higher its resultant capacity for self_steering. lmportance of information fof the steering of societal systems is highly consistent with the role of education in their trans{ormation and development. Full literacy, intensive use of communication media and vast sustained programmes of teaching, training, skills upgiadation and learning for millions of human beings at all levels of a national population come under the ambit ef education. They together generate a tremendous movement of Communicative stimuli affecting miilions of social beings. Sustained impact of such a massive and continuous communication exposure changes their attitudes, thoughts, betief and action. T his irreversible change leads to large and radlcal improvements in the effectof function role of the citizens, lmprovement of effector function improves a system's overall control response i.e., its better performance. Hence Education and lnformation and Development and Steering in a societal system are seen to be f undamentally related. Steering of a society means to guide and direct its course in an intelligent manner. The concept of intelligence involves a concept ol selection among the alternatives (Ashby 1956). An intelligent decision and action is a more correcl decision and action under the circumstances. The basis of a selection is currently available information, learning and experience (i.e. stored information) of an organism. lt follows that the intelli_ gence (selection ability) of an oiganism would depend upon its rate of acquiring, processing using and storing infoimation. Among two similar (or dissimilar) organism, the one whose level

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

'

125

ol information acquisition, use and storage is higher (i.e,, higher fearning rate) would be the more intelligent. Its response ability i.e., ability to select a better response would correspondingly be greater. The same logic is applicable to societal systemg
also.

Societies with information and control systems of laiger and faster information handling capacity at their micio levels would be able to steer themselves more effectively. They would be bettet able to know morc about their prohlems soonet'. They would be able to make high frequency assessments o{ their experience and performance. Their control responses would as a consequence be more intelligent and timely. Their laiger sensing, processing, storage and memory capacity for intormation would enable them to learn more from theif experience at a faster rate. Learning fiom experience and faster capacity for more intelligent responses would enable a societal system to steer itself through unstable environments and complete its recovery from recent failures.
The Rationale and Efficiency of System Design:
The theoretical rationale o{ the in{ormation and control system design here is provided by the multicycle dynamic pattern of societal systems. System dynamics delimit and structure design process in a definitive manner, The nature and scope o{ sensors i.e , the events to be sensed by them, are deflned by the system cycles. The categorization oi information and attributes of events are defined and delimited by salient variables and their information modules. Similarly, the contents and tasks of other design blocks are also governed by the principles and themes of the multi-cycle structure. This overall rationale of the design process leads to its efficiency and optimal utilization of system capacity as shown by the Conant's laws of infoimation which govern systems (Conant, '1976)' Total inlormation flow across a complex system from its environmnts is environment is representable as following
:

126

Fundauents of a stcering System

for Inaian

Society

tT:fB+lc+to+

tt

where, (i) ll is the total information flow, (li) lB is the infoimation blocked within the system as
irrelevant and useless,

(iii) lC is the infoimation used in the internal coordination within and between the sub-systems,

(iv) lO is the information emitted by system in its outputs

and

(v) N is the noise generated within the system unielated

to the inputs and outputs. The law shows {hat the total amount of information flow over a period being flnite, blockage, cooidination, output and noise compete with one another in the system,s information processing activity. If there is a gieat dear of ifierevant information to be blocked i.e,, rejected and a lot of noise is generated ow_ ing to inteinal confusion, then to that extent, resser information processing effort can be devoted to coordination and output, the two most important aspects of a system,s survival. The design rationale heie makes for the avoidance of brockage and noise by pre-specifying the tasks and activities of sensors and other functional blocks. Output requiiements are also restricted in terms of the limited number of system variables. These re_ ductions leave the most of the information processing capacity to be utilized for coordination (lC) only. Greater use of system,s informational capacity for internar coordination reads to its improved management and goal attainment processes. System,s development is thereby facilitated. Information and control system for a society here aims at creating a global leafning capacity for self_examination and impiovement by a society, Such global learning and self-improvoment process is characterized by discontinuous leaps and large irregular qualitative changes. rt is distinct from a continu-

gus linear procs$ characterized by small

and regular incie,

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal

System

127

ments, The types of discontinuities involved heie are termed

'catastfophes' by the topologists (R, Thom, 1975). They suggost that improvement of system performance requires leaps and large changes in a nonrandom and puiposive mannei This is brought out by the concept ol conjoint regulation ol a set of variables as developed in this work' Exact course and piecise nature of the improvements are not the focal issues here. What counts is the direction and magnitude of overall self-impfovement (Z and GS) and global nature of the system's self-leain;ng and self-examination ca,paciiy. They can come about only through large changes and 'leaps' implemented in a sustained
man ner.

tl
Conclusion
Present work outlines the beginnings of an intellectual technology for the development of total society systems. lt is based on a science of society whose fundamentals were outlined in the fiist two chapters. Both the science and {he technology be developed here, derive lrom Cybernetics-the sought

to

science ol communication and control.

The concepts and propositions of the science of society and the social technologylof its development as enunciated hefe, conform lo the dictums of the scientific method. They are characterized by the following attributes of a valid scientific theoiy:

(i)

Results of analysis are falsi-fiable by empirical observations.

(ii) They are so arranged as

to stimulate their own selfcorrection especially with the better availability of relevant categories of data and information.
ceptual assumPtions.

(iii) Concepts and propositions are logically related to one another: there are no ad-hoc theoretical and con(iv) They are measurable.
(v) They are economical in the number ol variables used.

(vi) They display consistency of reasoning within the symbol system employed.

(vii) They afe free lrom cultural subjectivism.

Cybernetic Analysis of Iniltan Societal

System

129

(viii) They opefationalize the qualitative concepts like political instability; societal viability, expectations of socii and public unrest.

(ix) They permit inter-s ubjective verification across the

societal systems in space and time,

(x) Theoretical analysis leads

to

applicable results foi the

development and management of societal systems. Multicyle theory of the societal systems outlined in this work, realizes the following theoretical possibilities;

(1) lt is descriptive i.e., describes namic structure,

a national society's dy-

(2) lt is diagnostic, i.e. assesses a society's problems and crisis situations.

(3) lt

predictive, i.e. piovides foresight concerning a system's behaviour.

is

(4) t is ameliorative, i.e. identifies the solution measufes to crises in a daductive manner.
f

(5) lt is normative, i,e. conceptualizes an ideal system state in terms ot the viability reference value of the system
and

its variables.

It may again be reemphasized in. conclusion that {he piesent work constitutes only a modest beginning toward understand in g societies better,

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'Time path of Total Society Systemsthe Case of US Society (19b1-72),

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Cybernetic Analysis and predic{ive Inference. An invited paper prepared for

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'Structure, Fu nction & process_Cyber_ netic Approach to Social phenomena Paper contributed to lV lnternational Conference of American Cybernetic
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{5

POST-SCRIPT
The computations reported in this volume were made in rAugust, 1975. lt is now possible to compare the computed '{lgures for economic growth and price rise for the 1976 and 1977 periods with their ofticially repoited figures for the .same periods. The ofticially repoited figures, however, often vary ,from one source to another. The reported figures fof the economic growth during 1976-77 and lg77'78 aie putat2o/o and 4.5o/o respectively. The figures for price rise during 1976 and 1977 are approximately estimated at 109/. and 60/o respectively, The annual average for economic growth over the two. yeai period hence comes out .to be 3.25 percent. This is in good agreement with the average of the computed figures of economic growth at 3 percent approximately for 1976 and .1977. Similarly, the average over a two year period for price rise comes out to be 8 percent which again is in good agree,ment with the average of the computed figures of price rise tor 1976 and 1977 a|7.1 percent,

in 1977-78 was, howevef, maiked by the random impact of a good monsoon on agrlcultufal production. The growth in industfial production and investThe economic sltuation

quite poor. The piesent Government is likely to face a difticult politico-economic situation in 1979-80 and 1980-81 periods if a serious diought situation materialises in accordance with a seven year cyclical pattern of its iecuirence. lf this difficult economic situation is further aggravated by external military pressure and subversion, the slluation may become very difficult on account of extensive internal uniest. The possibility of a military government under such extreme conditions cannot entirely be ruled out. This contlngency becomes distinctly probable in view of the leadership vacuum created by the erosion of high /dl (f) of Mrs. Gandhi and pooi health of rl. P. Naiain. Undef times of severe crisis, it is the high level leadership factoi, ldf (l), that
ment was $eiyes to impart stability to unstable and deteriorating situat-

ir186

ions in weak societal systerns. This stabilising factor does not appear to be available to the lndiair system.at piesent.

the change of government aa a resuli of March, 1977 elections has been the setback received by the national population control programme. This difficult probleni would tend to become more intractable and nagate.the normal gains of planned economic developrn.elt. The present govefnment would appear to be incapable of politically difficult decisions and actions' to deal with the . problem of relentless population growth in an effebtive . manner. In view of this, the lndian societal system would continue. to be beset with the grim problems of unemploy,.

The. most a,dyd.r$e:cojn.sequence .of

inflalion, slums, oveicrowding,.shortages of essential commodities and the pefsisting. of its ill_fed and ever increasing population mass. Despair and the pessimism [fow as (,1)and low ldf) (I)] on the one hand and internal ,divisiveness and unrest (high values of el and pu) on the other, are hence apt to characteiize.the national scene in the future. A technological breakthrough, in the field of fertility control may however succeed in averting the grim prospects and promote a better quality of life for the Indian masses.
.r.nent, illiteracy,