Statement of the Issue: The year is 2020.

The Peoples Republic of China, despite achieving economic eminence as the second largest economy in the world with a (1st by PPP standards), is facing a moment of political uncertainty. This committee is an emergency summit involving key members from the Chinese politburo (as well as provincial leaders). Ever since Deng Xiaoping introduced several reforms in the early 1980s, China has experienced phenomenal economic growth following decades of catastrophic destruction and mismanagement. Even with setbacks after the financial crisis of the first decade of the 21st century, Chinas economy continued to grow dramatically, bolstered by effective government monetary policy and continued dominance in manufacturing and exports. However, after years of rapid economic growth and open doors, factions of political dissidence grew internally within China, mostly in response to unresolved problems relating to political corruption and lack of governmental transparency. In 2018, the Chinese Politburo made an unprecedented move toward decentralizing and democratizing Chinas political structure by putting more power into provincial governments. Although this move initially appeased domestic and international critics alike, a decentralized state has slowed economic growth. This new political model has also led to a huge increase in division within party politicsthe Chinese Communist Party, something that was more easily controlled under a centralized state. Other issues include longignored problems such as pollution, dissunrestent in Tibet and Xinjiang, and growing economic disparity between rich and poor. Furthermore, Chinas rise has presented a security threat fotor many of its neighbors. Despite the harmonious rise policies of Hu Jintao, Chinas president in the early part of the 21st century and the proclaimed ??? strategy of ???, Chinas rise has threatened key international players including Japan, the United States, South Korea, India, and more recently, a strengthened ASEAN and the Russian Federation. Despite having close ties to the latter in the past, rapid economic growth by the China has led to strained relations, as China has clearly emerged as the dominant political voice of the region. On the bright side, the Peoples Republic of China and the Taiwan (the Republic of China), an island claimed by China as a province but officially recognized as a sovereign nation by several other nationscountries, have improved their relations.

Indeed, 2020 represents a critical juncture for Chinas peaceful rise. Although China will assuredly become the top economic power within the next few years, it still has many problems to resolve as it steps into this unprecedented role. History: In 1911, the Empire of ChinaChinese Empire, which had been in placestood for two thousands of years, finally collapsedfell, after over a century of being dominated by foreign powersi. What followed was, essentially, chaos. Chinas first President, Yuan Shikai, tried to declare himself Emperor. He was hastily replaced, but the Republic was just as much the puppet of foreign powers as the Empire had been. China had helped in the Ffirst Wworld Wwar by sending men to France not to fight, but to help aid in logistics and to fillfilling jobs that were vacant because so many Frenchmen were at the frontii. Furthermore, there was a Chinese delegation present at Versailles, yet no territorial reward was given to China. China still signed the treaty, and actually lost a considerable amount of territoryiii. People in China were outraged. A nationalist movement, called the May Forth Movement, got underway. arose in response to the Treatys terms. Meanwhile, the Republic, having not held elections, rapidly lost credibility and disintegrated, replaced by several warlords who ruled different sections of China, funded by different foreign powers. One such warlord from the south, Chiang Kai-Shek, managed to get himself recognized as the heir to Sun Yat-Sen, the founder of the Guomindang nationalist party. Chiang actually led an expedition (with the aid of the nNascent Chinese communist party) to the north of China and united the vast majority of China under the Republic. This leadership Republic was in fact a dictatorship. The Nanjing Ddecade saw repeated purges of the Chinese Communist Pparty, as well as the Japanese takeover of the northern section of China, Manchuriaresource rich and historically significant Manchuria. The Republic Japanese Empire named the area Manchuguo, and installed the fallen Emperor, Pu Yi of the Manchu descentimperial family, on a new Manchu throne as a puppet Emperor. The Japanese incursion was not particularly seen as an affront by most Chinese, of Han ethnic origin, who had been kept out of Manchuria so that the Imperial homeland could be kept racially pure with a population of Manchu-only bloodpeople. However, the people of Manchuria themselves lived under a tyrannical rule, although the Japanese brought great industrial development to the area. They began to resent the Japanese and disliked the new Imperial power,

especially since it was they, the Manchus, who had enjoyed special status in the old Confucian Chinese Empire under the Qing Dynasty. During the Second World War, the Japanese invaded the rest of China and very quickly took over what is known as China proper, the coast of Chinathe coast of mainland China. This was the richest part of China and both the Kuomintang and the Communist parties of China held a retreatretreated into the remote regions of Wwestern China, where they fought the Japanese to a standstill. One particular point of contention, which the two governments still argue over today, is the so-called Rape of Nanking. The Japanese brutally imposed their authority by needlessly killing and raping many Chinese in the Nanking region. The previous Japanese Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, made yearly visits to a shrine that glorified the souls of Japans war dead. Among those enshrined are war criminals who were responsible for many Chinese dead, including those at Nanking. The Chinese government officially protested each visit. Japanese school textbooks still downplay, in parts, the brutality of what happened. With this form of propaganda, tensions rise further. At the same time, each time China demonstrates its economic and military strength, the Japanese find cause to worry. Because of all these actions, the Chinese and Japanese, while not open enemies, still cannot really be classified as being on friendly terms. At the end of the war in 1945, the Chinese threw out the Japanese and turned on each other, with the Kuomintang eventually losing all of China, apart from Taiwan, to the Communist Party by 1949. Taiwan had been ruled by the Kuomintang in Taiwan until the end of the 20th century, when a democratic election replaced the government. For all relevant purposes, Taiwan, formally known as the Republic of China, has been its own independent state. It has its own independent economy and armed forces, yet diplomatically most countries in the region do not recognize it out of the fear of Chinas angerangering the Communist regime in Beijing. The same reason prevents the Taiwanese from declaring independence, as China is sure to move in with force and re-establish direct control. The population of Taiwan sees their country as the true China, the only part that remains part of the democratic state that was formed following the fall of the Empire. Thus, Taiwan has great reason to be wary of China, and hasve indeed bought defense materials from countries such as the United States. It is widely accepted, however, that Taiwan would be no match for the Peoples Republic of China in any military confrontation, through the United States has expressed ambiguous promises about coming to Taiwans aid should Communist China act aggressively towards the island.

From the Kuomintangs defeat up to until the mid 1970s, the Peoples Republic of China experienced a rather controversial and dark period under Mao Zedong. Though this period has been overlooked or interpreted with excessively positive overtones by the government, this it included failed economic reforms such as the Great Leap Forward as well as the now notorious Cultural Revolution. Post After 1978, the Peoples Republic of China government rapidly undertook a path of reforming its economy from a Soviet-style centrally planned economy state toward a more Western oriented market type economy while at the same time remaining within the political framework provided by the Communist Party of China. This unique system of development was labeled "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" and was essentially autocratic capitalism and is now credited with liftingving millions of people out of povertyleading to the poverty rate declining from a massive 53% of population in 1981 to a lower 8% by 2001.iv In line with these formed, authorities increasingly shifted agricultural workers (which employs was half of the labor force) toward a system of household responsibility instead of the old system of collectivization. In addition, they increased the authority of local officials and plant managers in industry and also allowed a wide variety of small-scale enterprises in services and light manufacturing. Lastly, they actively opened the economy to greater foreign trade and foreign investment. The government placed more emphasis on raising personal income and consumption and has also introduced modern management systems to boost productivity. Chinese leaders began to see foreign trade as a major vehicle and medium for rapid economic growth, rather than infringing on Chinas previous policies of self relianceself-reliance and isolationism. Chinas growth in the late 20th century, of course, was not been without setbacks; key problems include the protests and massacre in Tiananmen Square of 1989 and growing economic disparity between different parts segments of Chinas populace. Still, Chinas rapid growth, which increased from less than 1% of the world economy in 1979 to over 6% in 2003, was one of the biggest stories at the turn of the century, and was epitomized by the 2008 Olympics, which was characterized as Chinas coming out party.v China: 2009-2020 2009 Chinas economy grows 9.1%, beating World Bank projections and barely eclipsing the 9% threshold that experts believe is needed to absorb the new market entrants and to maintain the current unemployment ratevi

2010 Chinas economy grows 11%, again exceeding academic projections and restoring confidence in Asian markets January 2011 President Hujintao pledges that it will only increase its military expenditures at a fix-rate of 5% a year, as part of its Harmonious Society policy. Funds, he declares, will be used to address environmental and social programs. This number represents a sharp decline from the number from 1996 to 2006 (11.8%), and gets receives mixed results among domestic online pundits. Some approve of such a move as better refocusing Chinas priorities, but a growing nationalist movement expresses criticism that China is not keeping up with Americas military dominance. October 2012 - China elects its next generation of leaders at the 18th party congress. Xi Jinping (current Vice-President) is elected to the position of President and Li Keqiang (current Vice-Premier) is elected to the position of Premier. International pundits project gradual reforms and more liberalnessincreasing liberalism under this new wave of leadership. 2013: A widespread protest once again occurs in Tibet, and is quickly silenced, but not without the international community questioning Chinas actions. 2014 A 8.1 magnitude earthquake hits the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, cutting through the center of Urumchi, the provinces capital and biggest city. 43,000 deaths are reported. The gGovernment sets up a 20 billion reconstruction fund, which sparks local outcry due to the disparity between funds appropriated for the Sichuan earthquake in 2008 and this one. 2015: The Chinese government makes environmental issues a priority increasing green energy projects, but the rapid pace of industrialization proves a hindrance to its effectiveness. October 2016 China reelects Xi JinPing and Li Keqiang. 2018 Xi Jiping announces the end to the One-Child Policy. February 2016 China launches its first moonwalk mission, 8 years ahead of goals set out in 2006. 2017: Talks take place between Chinese and US officials on closer economic ties, but end without any major developments. 2019: Despite reforms, dissent grows within China about the current nature of the government, with many protests demanding democracy taking place.

The World 2010: The world economy continues to go through a recession, but the end of the year, signs of a recovery are on the horizon. 2011: The United States increases its efforts at missile defense, substantially increasing its ability to protect itself from missiles, citing missile launches and nuclear tests by nations such as North Korea. This further worsens ties between the United States and Russia. 2012 President Obama is reelected by a narrow margin, 51%-49% against Republican candidate Jon Huntsman. 2013: The first effective hydrogen fuel cell is created, signaling the possibility of switching from fossil fuels to hydrogen. While possibly a dramatic change for the world economy, many years of development are needed before it will become cost-effective. 2014: Many Latin American countries sign free trade agreements with the United States, following the recovery of the world economy and increased trade between those nations. 2015: India and Pakistan nearly go to war over renewed tensions in Kashmir, but through the efforts of President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, tensions ease. 2016: China for the first time allows its currency to freely trade on the world markets. 2017: Russia and China agree to closer cooperation on activities in space, as a sign of a strengthening of relations between the two nations. 2018 A controversial poll in Taiwan shows that 52% of residents Strongly approve or approve of Taiwan returning to the Mainland within 5 years, the first time such any such poll has achieved a majority response for such a direction. 2019: Russia and China launch a joint probe to Mars to search for locations for a future human landing on the planet.

China in Statistics China in 2010 -GDP: 2.3 trillion -Population: 1.37 billion China in 2020 -GDP: $34 trillion -Population: 1.57 billion -Other Notes: Trailing the United States by 2 trillion and projected to overtake it by 2022) Analysis: Overview: With Chinas rise onin the international stage, both opportunities and challenges have arisen. Old positions may be counterproductive in light of its newfound positionstatus, but at the same time, reversing course may prove more harmful than helpful. The leaders of China must tread warily or risk destroying ties with the nations with which they have become interdependent. In the most drastic scenario, not only will economic harm befall the nation of ChinaChina, but all-out warfare could erupt, which would be disastrous for all nations involved given the military technology that is now widely available. Now that China has risen to the forefront of the world, it must step into its leadership role in a responsible manner or risk alienation from the international community. Taiwan: The island of Taiwan has long viewed itself as a separate nation from the Chinese mainland. While a majority (52%) favors integration with China, a strong minority (38%) favors independence. The deft handling of integration with China could remove a major point of contention in the international arena and prevent any conflicts from erupting.

Military: China has actively worked to advance its capabilities in the past, constructing new aircraft carriers, advancing its space technologies by launching satellites and spacecraft, and increasing the technological capabilities of its military. While China has advanced far in the last few decades, technologically it is still outclassed outgunned by the militaries of many nations. Economy: China has arguably the worlds most formidable economy in this new era. While this may be the caseThough this is true, the economy is still strongly dependent on foreign demand and focused more on cheap manufacturing. As such, if China is to strengthen its economic standing and self-sufficiency, it must promote domestic consumption and diversify the nature of its economy. Japan: There are many outstanding disputes between China and Japan, including disputed islands, disputed borders at sea, and grievances from their past shared history. On the other hand, the close proximity of the two nations and their cultural similarities could lead to a bridging of relations that could benefit both nations. United States: The United States and China are inextricably economically linked. They are some of the worlds largest trading partners. However, their interests on the world stage are often at odds, ranging from the actions of North Korea to economic and military competition throughout the globe. As their economies have grown more interlinked, their relations have stagnated at best. India:

India and China are two very similar nations. Both have been trying for decades to develop and improve the lot of their peoples. While taking different approaches, both in the political and economic spheres, they face many of the same issues. However, they have also often been antagonistic, from disputes over borders to competition for resources and investment. North Korea: China is perhaps North Koreas strongest ally. Throughout its nuclear activities and general defiance of resolutions passed by the United Nations and the will of the international community, China has almost always urged patience and diplomacy. However, with its leader, Kim Jong-Il ailing, the situation within North Korea could drastically change with the rise of a new leader. Its nuclear capabilities give more causepause for worry as the consequences of their falling into the wrong hands could be disastrous.

Spence, Jonathan D., The Search for Modern China, Norton Publishing, 1999, page 27 Spence, Jonathan D., The Search for Modern China, Norton Publishing, 1999 page 68 iii Spence, Jonathan D., The Search for Modern China, Norton Publishing, 1999 page 105 iv Fighting Poverty: Findings and Lessons from Chinas Success (World Bank)
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