Daily Comment Raiffeisen RESEARCH

30 June 2011

Chart of the day

30 Minutes QFDXc1
Price EUR Cndl; QFDXc1; Last Trade 22:00 29.06.2011; 7.317,5; 7.328,0; 7.314,5; 7.323,5 2MA; QFDXc1; Last Trade(Last); 13; 144; Simple; 22:00 29.06.2011; 7.314,6; 7.208,2 Cndl; QFDXc1; Last Trade 22:00 29.06.2011; 7.317,5; 7.328,0; 7.314,5; 7.323,5 2MA; QFDXc1; Last Trade(Last); 13; 144; Simple; 22:00 29.06.2011; 7.314,6; 7.208,2 161,8% 7.337,7 16:30 27.06.2011 - 09:00 30.06.2011 (FFT) Price EUR

Important indicators today

RBI USA
15:45 Chicago PMI Jun May May Jun Q1 Jun Q1 May n.a. n.a. 1.9% 2.9% 9.5% 8.25% -1.8% n.a. 54.0 0.7% 2.2% 2.8% 8.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. 56.6 0.3% 2.0% 2.7% 9.2% 8.25% -1.4% 51.6

consensus

last

7.380 7.350 7.320

7.380
38,2% 7.346,3

7.350 7.320 7.290 7.260

7.290 100,0% 7.281,1 7.260

61,8% 7.246,1 7.243,7 38,2% 7.239,2 161,8% 7.230,6 61,8% 7.224,6 100,0% 7.206 61,8% 7.190,8 38,2% 7.181,4 161,8% 7.162,7

Europe
08:00 GE: Retail sales, mom 10:00 EZ: Money supply M3, yoy 11:00 EZ: Consumer prices, flash, yoy 09:00 TR: GDP, % yoy 09:00 RU: Current account, % 11:00 HR: Current account, % of GDP

7.230 161,8% 7.230,7 161,8% 7.225,2 38,2% 7.224,5 7.200 7.170 7.140
61,8% 7.129,2 100,0% 7.213,8 61,8% 7.206,8 100,0% 7.206,1 38,2% 7.202,4 38,2% 7.198,1 7.197,8 61,8% 7.190,8 38,2% 7.181,4

7.230 7.200 7.170 7.140 7.110

.1 Volume 12.000 9.000 6.000 3.000 .1234

100,0% 7.200,9

7.110 61,8% 7.111,3

.1 Vol; QFDXc1; Last Trade 22:00 29.06.2011; 1.589,0000

16:30

18:30

20:30

08:30

10:30

12:30

14:30

16:30

18:30

20:30

08:30

10:30

12:30

14:30

16:30

18:30

20:30

08:30

Emerging Markets
1 July CN: HSBC Manufacturing PMI Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

27 Juni 2011

28 Juni 2011

29 Juni 2011

Source: Thomson Reuters, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

DAX Future

Last: 7,323.5 Sell 7,303 Target: 7,263 7,244; Bullish confirmation dropping through Trend-line at 7,303 -> 7,244, stop at 7,346 -> 7,384 7,414. June 30th, 2011 07:54 CET

Market overview
cur.
Interest rates, yields 3M Euribor EUR 3M Libor USD Bund Future EUR US T Note Future Currencies EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN Equity markets S&P 500 Dow Jones I. A. Nasdaq Comp. DJ EuroStoxx 50 DAX ATX Nikkei 225 Emerging Markets Hang Seng (China) Sensex (India) Bovespa (Brazil) JALSH (South Africa) Commodities Brent Oil USD/bbl Gold USD/oz Credit markets iTRAXX Europe ITRAXX Crossover iTRAXX Fin. Senior 5J CDS Greece. 5J CDS Spain 5J CDS Portugal 110 -3 BP 131 585 210 2232 368 854 94 352 107 661 170 213 5 BP -28 BP -14 BP 985 BP -69 BP 267 BP 113 1513 0.2% 0.0% 126 1578 78 1157 18.4% 6.5% 12615 18757 62334 31726 1.7% 14219 0.3% 21109 0.0% 73103 1.4% 33335 11142 17296 60056 25970 -0.6% -8.5% -10.1% -1.2% 1307 12261 2740 2803 7294 2725 9817 0.8% 1371 1011 9614 2061 2503 5809 2224 8228 4.0% 5.9% 3.3% 0.3% 5.5% -6.2% -4.0% 1.450 116.530 1.205 24.248 265.240 3.986 -0.6% 1.49 1.22 8.3% 6.9% -3.8% -3.2% -5.1% 0.5% 1.54% 0.6 BP 1.54% 0.25% 0.0 BP 0.53% 125.90 122.89 0.78% 0.25% 53.1 BP -5.7 BP 0.5% 4.0%

1T 52W H

52W L

Ytd

-0.5% 134.77 119.86 0.0% 125.03 115.08

0.0% 123.33 105.44 0.0% -0.3% 1.39 25.89 1.18 23.93

0.0% 292.07 262.57 0.0% 4.18 3.83

0.6% 12876 0.4% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 2888 3077 7600 3013

Established markets: Financial markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday after the Greek parliament approved the austerity package. The euro rallied 2 cents against the dollar and is currently trading at just over 1.45 EUR/USD. German government bonds came under pressure. Risk premiums on Greek government bonds declined appreciably, notably in the short-maturity segment. Yields on Portuguese, Irish and Spanish government debt also fell. The second hurdle to the disbursement of the next tranche from the old aid package, as well as to the new financial aid package, has thus been cleared. The next hurdle is scheduled for today, however. The Greek parliament will vote on the implementation law for the austerity package that was approved yesterday. If this vote is also passed, the EU finance ministers are expected to approve the new aid for Greece at an emergency meeting to be held this Sunday. We expect risk premiums on peripheral government bonds to continue to fall and the euro to appreciate further over the next few weeks. The theme of Greece is by no means over, however, and will lead to noticeable price fluctuations. Mass protests and violent clashes, as already seen following yesterdays vote, are likely to continue to create uncertainty. Equity markets: The Greek parliaments eagerly awaited approval of the austerity package provided an added boost for US equity markets. However, after the sharp gains of the past two days, investors remained fairly restrained. Financial stocks were amongst the most sought-after, with the S&P financials subindex rising by 2.1%. In fact, the Bank of America alone posted a 3% gain on news that it had signed an agreement with a group of investors providing for payment of compensation of USD 8.5 bn in connection with the real estate crisis. Credit card companies surged on announcements made by the Fed that the permissible fee for merchants for card payments is to be increased to 22 cents per transaction, i.e. 10 cents more than had been proposed in December. This sent Mastercard up by 11.3 % and Visa by as much as 15%. With gains of 2.6%, American Express stock responded less buoy-

0.2% 10892

410 -15 BP 163 2059 280 -8 BP 22 BP -6 BP

767 -50 BP

Prices as of 30 Jun 11, 7:56 a.m. (CET) Source: Bloomberg

Daily Comment

antly. The Japanese equity market also posted gains for the third day running, with energy stocks in particular finding investors favour. The prospect of the deactivated power stations soon going back into operation spurred these stocks. Indicators from the futures market point to a firmer start to trading in the European bourses. Credit markets: The iTRAXX Main contracted a bit after the decision by the Greek parliament and is now trading at 110bp. According to Bloomberg, the German Minister of Finance Schuble and representatives from German banks are set to meet in Berlin today. Theyll be discussing the possibility of the bank aid to Greece. The rating agency Fitch raised its so called individual rating of ABN AMRO from D to C. The chemicals distributor Brenntag AG (BBB-/ Ba1) announced that it will issue a bond soon if the market conditions are right. Emerging Markets: The brightening of investor sentiment in the wake of the successful passing of the Greek austerity package gave a boost to equities markets and currencies in the Emerging Markets yesterday (Latin America and Africa) and today (Asia). However, the inflation outlook published by the central bank in Brazil yesterday proved to be a damper as the projected figure for the end of 2011 was increased by 0.2 pp to 5.8 %. This means that further base rate hikes in the second half of 2011 are more likely. China will publish the PMIs for June tomorrow and if these are better than anticipated, significant price gains can be expected. A set of macroeconomic data in South Africa should result in further improvements in share prices today. CEE: The decision by the Greek government to accept the austerity package gave at least some of the CEE currencies a slight boost yesterday although the improvements were rather subdued. Somewhat surprisingly, the forint performed particularly well against the euro, but the zloty also made above-average gains in relation to the euro due to the fact that the revision of historical current account date was smaller than expected. Todays data calendar for CEE is very full. Among the most important data are certainly expectations by the Polish Central Bank on consumer price inflation, current account data in Hungary and Croatia for the first quarter of 2011, the base rate decision in Russia and the GDP figures for the first quarter in Turkey. However, in spite of the wide variety of data expected it is questionable whether they will be sufficient to push the subject of Greece to the background. Hungary will issue 3-, 5- and 15-year local currency bonds today with a volume of HUF 45 bn.

Market overview
current
Other interest rates EUR Eonia 1M Euribor EUR 3M Euribor EUR 6M Euribor EUR 12M Euribor EUR 2Y Swap EUR 3Y Swap EUR 5Y Swap EUR 10Y Swap EUR Other currencies EUR/GBP EUR/HRK EUR/RON EUR/SEK EUR/RUB EUR/UAH EUR/TRY EUR/BRL EUR/CNY EUR/ZAR Bond market 2Y Bund EUR 5Y Bund EUR 10Y Bund EUR 2Y US Treasury 5Y US Treasury 10Y US Treasury Interest rates CEE 3M Pribor 3M Wibor 3M Bubor 10Y Czech Rep. 10Y Poland 10Y Hungary Equity markets CEE Turkey (ISE Nat. 100) Croatia (CROBEX) Poland (WIG20) Romania (BET) Russia (MICEX) Serbia (BELEX15) Czech Rep. (PX) Hungary (BUX) Commodities WTI Oil USD/bbl Fuel oil USD/mt Diesel USD/mt CO2 EUA Fut. EUR/mt Silver USD/oz Platinum USD/oz Palladium USD/oz Steel USD/mt Aluminium USD/mt Copper USD/mt

1T 52W H 52W L
1.55% 0.34% 1.32% 0.51% 1.54% 1.78% 2.17% 0.35% 0.33% 0.27% 0.20% 0.90 7.47 4.37 9.65 43.93 11.90 2.37 2.40 9.68 10.03 1.91% 2.81% 3.49% 0.85% 2.40% 3.74% 0.86% 4.61% 6.10% 4.21% 6.37% 8.44% 0.78% 1.06% 1.32% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.81 7.18 4.07 8.70 38.21 9.59 1.90 2.17 8.27 8.71 0.57% 1.20% 2.12% 0.33% 1.03% 2.38% 0.79% 3.70% 5.26% 3.24% 5.34% 6.56%

Ytd
17.6 BP 53.7 BP 53.1 55.0 64.3 54.9 42.6 29.1 12.0 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

0.99% 15.4 BP 1.32% 0.3 BP 1.54% 1.78% 2.15% 2.14% 2.35% 2.79% 3.42% 0.901 7.386 4.220 9.164 40.573 11.585 2.342 2.263 9.373 9.824 1.55% 2.22% 2.98% 0.45% 1.68% 3.10% 1.18% 4.71% 6.10% 3.92% 5.85% 7.34% 63003 2240 2812 5472 1660 752 1216 22702 95.3 926.0 953.8 12.7 35.1 1723.5 760.8 571.0 2533.0 9320.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 5.3 6.2 6.7 5.1 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% -0.8% -0.1% 0.6% -0.2% 8.3 9.0 5.1 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.9 -1.8 -1.0 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

4.8% 0.0% -1.5% 1.9% -0.6% 8.0% 11.8% 1.8% 5.9% 9.7% 69.0 38.1 2.1 -14.0 -32.6 -19.1 -4 76 25 1 -21 -61 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.9% 0.4%

71777 53911 2338 1773 2942 2240 6099 4617 1865 1254 829 600 1278 1087 24531 20147

-4.5% 6.1% 2.5% 3.9% -1.7% 15.4% -0.7% 6.4% 1.1% 21.4% 20.7% -15.8% 13.4% -2.6% -5.1% 4.2% 2.6% -2.9%

0.6% 115.5 76.6 0.3% 1064.5 607.0 3.8% n.a. n.a. -3.6% 15.8 13.2 0.5% 49.8 17.3 0.0% 1886.5 1486.0 1.3% 862.3 424.0 0.3% 576.0 450.0 0.5% 2803.0 1920.0 2.7% 10190.0 6318.0

Prices as of 30 Jun 11, 7:56 a.m. (CET) Source: Bloomberg

Daily Comment
This report was completed on 30 June 2011

Acknowledgements

Editor
Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9 Tel: +43 1 717 07-1521 Head: Peter Brezinschek (1517) Research Sales: Werner Weingraber (5975) Economics, Fixed Income, FX: Valentin Hofsttter (Head, 1685), Jrg Angel (1687), Wolfgang Ernst (1500), Gunter Deuber (5707), Ingo Jungwirth (2139), Julia Neudorfer (5842), Andreas Schwabe (1389), Gintaras Shlizhyus (1343), Gottfried Steindl (1523), Martin Stelzeneder (1614) Credit/Corporate Bonds: Christoph Klaper (Head, 1652), Christoph Ibser (5913), Martin Kutny (2013), Peter Onofrej (2049), Manuel Schreiber (3533), Gleb Shpilevoy (1461), Alexander Sklemin (1212), Jrgen Walter (5932) Stocks: Helge Rechberger (Head, 1533), Aaron Alber (1513), Christian Hinterwallner (1633), Jrn Lange (5934), Hannes Loacker (1885), Richard Malzer (5935), Johannes Mattner (1463), Christine Nowak (1625), Leopold Salcher (2176), Andreas Schiller (1358), Connie Schmann (2178), Magdalena Wasowicz (2169) Quant Research/Emerging Markets: Veronika Lammer (Head, 3741), Mario Annau (1355), Lydia Kranner (1609), Nina Kukic (1635), Albert Moik (1593), Manuel Schuster (1529) Technical analysis: Stefan Memmer (1421), Robert Schittler (1537)

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