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NEW ENERGY FOR A NEW CLIMATE

JOHN BYRNE June 22, 2011

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware http://ceep.udel.edu

New York Times Square 1890

Times Square 1902

Times Square 1921

Seoul Chongno-r 1890

Chongno-ro 1910

Avenida Rizal 1930s

Avenida Rizal 1960s

Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP


10.0%

9.8% of GDP in 2008 Highest in 25 yrs


9.0%

8.0%

Percent

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

1998

1995

1996

1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

2008

The scenario on the left (A1B) assumes a business as usual approach to carbon dioxide emissions, with growth in the A 4 C rise threatens begin to diverge dramatically after the middle of the century. By 2055 they are already more than The two projections permafrost across the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet is under pressure, the Amazon population, the economy and in fossil fuel use, leading to an approximate rise of 4 C by 2100. faces twinapart. of fire and drought, and sea levels could be up by 80cm (4 C scenario) putting coastal populations at a degree threats The scenario on the right (E1) represents what may happen if swift action is taken to constrain emissions. It assumes greater risk of flooding. that they will start to fall from 2015 onwards and that the global average temperature will rise by about 2C by 2100.

Sources: IPCC (scenarios); UK Meteorological Office (maps)

The Challenge of Climate Justice


18 United States

Metric Tons of CO2 Per Capita

Russia

South Korea

Japan

Western Europe

Eastern Europe China

3.3

Sustainable Limit3.3 Tons

Sub-Saharan Africa

India Population

Latin America & Caribbean 500 million

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware http://ceep.udel.edu

CEEP research (Byrne et al, 1998, Energy Policy v. 26, n. 4: 335-343) established the benchmark for an equitable and sustainable climate future: 3.3 tons per person per year. The United States is the leading emissions debtor, exceeding the sustainable & equitable emissions limit by more than 500%.

IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options


25 15

23.7

GT CO2-e

5 1990 -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

7.8
New Emissions Above 1990

-15

Needed Emission Reductions Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements


Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements Sustainable Land Use & Transport Planning Renewable Energy Other*

12.0 4.2 (51%) 7.2 (30%) 2.5 (10%) 2.0 ( 9%)

-25

* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs. Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change. Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.

U.S. Energy Obesity


6,000 Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2006 5,000

United States California European Union

CA Household Savings per yr = ~$800

per capita kWh

4,000

3,000

Rest of US uses 44% more electricity than Californians

2,000

EU per capita kWh = ~1,750


1,000

EU Household Savings per yr = ~$1,100


1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0 1960
EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2007, 2000, 1990

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware http://ceep.udel.edu

Changing Built Environment Obesity

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

not consuming
The cost of saving energy is significantly less than electricity rates throughout the U.S.

Source: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner (2008) The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE.

US Household Savings from Multi-modalism per yr = ~$3,000

Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute. 2010. Evaluating Public Transit Benefits and Costs

Estimates of the Technical Potential of Renewable Energy Resources 3,500


3,000
Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000) de Vries (2007)

Exajoules

2,000 1,500

Exajoules

2,500

50 40 30 20 10 0 Hydropower Ocean

1,000
500 0

World Energy Consumption per yr = ~490 Exajoules

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Biomass

* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Renewables Approaching Parity


LCOE with US Incentives
Levelized Cost per kWh (US cents) 40 35

LCOE w/o Incentives


Distributed Energy (competes in Retail Market)
Average U.S. Retail Electricity Price

30
25 20

Utility Scale (competes in Wholesale Market)

15
10 5 0

Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (2010)

PV Potential in Seoul
67 MW 101 GWh (1%) 134 MW 201 GWh (2%) 197 MW 296 GWh (2%)

Population = 12 million Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 2005 City Electricity Use: 2005 City Peak Demand: 130.8 million m2

885 MW 1,330 GWh (13%)

40.5 TWh

900 MW 1,354 GWh (14%) 4,494 MW 6,759 GWh (68%)

18.8 GW

Solar Potential Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (36%) Solar Potential Peak Shaving:

6.7 GW (51%)
Educational Industrial Other

Assumptions: 40% of flat rooftop area used to collect solar energy; PV module efficiency = 20%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.

Residential

Commercial Public

GREEN JOBS: THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ADVANTAGE ^


Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested
COAL PLANTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION
Smart/Green Buildings Air Sealing / Insulation 14.7 12.0

4 12-15

RENEWABLE ENERGY
Solar Thermal Solar Electric (PV) Wind Geothermal 19.0 15.7 11.9 10.5

10-19

INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY


High-Speed Broadband Smart Grid Intelligent Transport 26.4 21.7 17.7

18-26

Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UKs Digital Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include network effects.

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware http://ceep.udel.edu

Shifting the Energy Paradigm: The Sustainable Energy Utility Model


Developed at CEEP, the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) is an innovative public-private partnership focused exclusively on delivering renewable energy and conservation services Implemented in: -Delaware -Philadelphia -Washington, DC Under consideration in: -Seoul, South Korea -Cities in China

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware http://ceep.udel.edu

Shenzhen, PRC 1980

Leading PV Manufacturers

2006
World Solar Cell Production = ~1,700 MW

2008
World Solar Cell Production = ~4,100 MW

JAPAN

52%

CHINA

60%

CHINA

11%

JAPAN

25%

Sources: Prometheus Institute, 2009, PV News (April); Japan PV Energy Association, 2010; IEA PVPS, 2010.

ENERGY OBESITY
United States California
Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2006

European Union

EU per capita kWh = ~1,750

60% Below 1990


EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2007, 2000, 1990