System Dynamics and Regional Water Planning in the Middle Rio Grande Basin

Vincent Tidwell, Howard Passell, Erik Webb, Steve Conrad and Dick Thomas Sandia National Laboratories Gary Woodard and Jesse Roach University of Arizona Presentation to: Scenario Development Team January 25, 2003

Modeling Objectives
Provide a tool for quantitatively comparing water management alternatives and scenarios, in terms of:
Water savings, and Cost to implement and maintain the alternative

Provide tool for engaging policy makers, stakeholders, and the public in the decision process Demonstrate the interconnectedness and complexity of our regional water system

System Dynamics
Focus on the broad-scale structure of the system
recipitatio

We employ System Dynamics, which provides a formal framework for managing multiple interacting subsystems, each of which vary in time With system dynamics we are uniquely able to quantify feed-back, time delays, and coupling between subsystem components

roundwat
undwater Extract
recharge_avg min_SW_to_ocean GW_to_ocean GW_extraction_1980 SW_extraction_1980 basin_area GW_proportion recharge_avg GW_to_ocean interbasin_transfers_in total_extraction Precip_mm runoff_avg recharge_avg GW_return_flow GW_extraction maximum_extractable_amount interbasin_transfers_out SW_flow

Water Us
1
urban_consumption

urban_delta urban_consumption current_urban_consumption urban_demand ind_delta

mm_precip_avg precip_avg

precip_stdev precip mm_precip_stdev

total_consumption

echarg

Urbplusind_consum

2
ind_consumption total_extraction current_ind_consumption ind_demand ag_delta ind_consumption total_demand

dynamic_static_switch

std_normal

apotranspirat
precip_apportionment

Recharge

undwater Return F

Runof
ET runoff_stdev dynamic_static_switch ag_consumption ag_GW_proportioncurrent_ag_consumption available_GW GW_return_flow runoff GW_to_ocean

Surplus Sw_return_flow GW_return_flow

3
ag_consumption

ag_demand current_ag_consumption

Water Us

eturn Flo

Ag_model_requirements Ag_model_switch Ag_available

To Ag Mode

Basin_Water_Req

Groundwater Discharge

rom A Model
Ocean ischarg
Ocean

GW_discharge

runoff_avg

Agricultural Water R
Water M Ag Mode

available_water_apportionment

urface Wat
available_SW

SW_to_ocean Sw_return_flow

SW_flow

erbasin Transfe
SW_extraction interbasin_transfers_in interbasin_transfers_out aqueduct_switch_in additional_capacity_in additional_capacity_out years_to_completion_in current_capacity_out current_capacity_in years_to_completion_out aqueduct_switch_out

ace Water Return F face Water to Oc face Water Extrac

avg_SW_to_Ocean ind_consumption total_extraction GW_discharge SW_extraction GW_extraction SW_flow SW_to_ocean min_SW_to_ocean interbasin_transfers_in interbasin_transfers_out urban_consumption Sw_return_flow ag_SW_proportion urban_SW_proportion ag_consumption ind_SW_proportion

Why System Dynamics

Broadly accessible PC based User friendly interfaces Computations in seconds to minutes Models easily modified for scenario testing
Model Controls
Set Model Parameters
Return Flow Rates
Sewered

Run Model
1. Set Parameters Run Model OR

Per Capita Water Use

Rural

ET Rates
Riparian

2.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 50 100 150 200 250

0.50 Septic Tanks 100.0 Albuquerque Residential

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 100 150 200 250 300 2 3 4

3.00 Open Water

Run Model with Default Parameters OR

0.75

5.00

Run Model one step at a time

Yearly Time Step 1994 Go to Groundwater Results

Agricultural Proportions
Return Flow

180.0 Albuquerque NonResidential

1.0

Riparian Area Reduction

10% 25%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

50

100

150

200

50% None

0.333 Application

70.00

Groundwater Inflow from adjacent Basins

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Use of Infiltration Gallery

Start Stop

Go to Surface Water Results Go to Water Use Results

3.00

28,400.80

View Whole Model

View Model Structure Return to Start

Model Development Process

Assembled a Cooperative Modeling Team including members from:
Each Water Assembly constituency group, Middle Region Council of Governments (MRCOG), and Utton Transboundary Resources Center, UNM School of Law

Team meets every other week to:

Conceptualize model components, Identify external sources of expertise and data, and Review the model

Community engagement
Expose community to model
Public forums, Educational venues, and Community events

Interactions with the professional community

Scenario Development!!!

MRG Model
Bounded by planning region boundaries Simulations on annual time step Primary modules
Surface water Groundwater Population Demand
Urban Agricultural Environmental Evaporative

MRG Model: Surface Water System

Accounts for shallow aquifer/river interactions

Disaggregated by three counties and self-supplied

Future Albuquerque withdrawals from river

Transfers to groundwater system

MRG Model: Inflows

Option to include drought of specified duration and intensity

Historic data from 1960-2000

Future aggregate inflows are stochastically generated from historical distributions

Agriculture
Includes conveyance channel ET and leakage

ET depends on climate Also calculate irrigation recharge Data largely from MRGCD and County Extension Office

MRG Model: Evaporative Losses

Evaporative losses calculated using a modified form of the Penman Equation

Meteorological data extended into future in consistent fashion with inflows

MRG Model: Pumping Induced Leakage

Total leakage from all sources (i.e., captured recharge, river flows, conveyance channel flows, ag recharge) captured by groundwater pumping
Pumping induced river leakage simulated using the GloverBalmer Equation calibrated to USGS MODFLOW data (Kernodle et al., 1995)

Shallow Aquifer System

Drain return flow not derived from un-used irrigation water
Balance between Riparian/Ditch bank ET with shallow aquifer inflows from mountain recharge, ag recharge, and conveyance channel leakage Bosque ET calculated similar to that used for the agriculture consumption term

MRG Model: Groundwater System

Municipal demand driven by population

Disaggregated municipal withdrawals

River leakage transfer

Other major groundwater users

Urban Withdrawals
Urban use disaggregated by three counties and self supplied Demand is calculated on a per capita basis, hence population growth fuels increasing demand. Use BBERs population growth rates Demands are calculated separately for indoor and outdoor uses Demands are also calculated separately by sector
Municipal Commercial Industrial Institutional

Alternative Conservation Measures

Bosque restoration Irrigated agriculture
Irrigation efficiency, Conveyance system losses, and Alternative crops/acreage

Municipal Conservation
Water pricing, Water re-use, and Residential/commercial conservation Rooftop harvesting

Desalination Reservoir storage

Up-stream storage, Artificial recharge, and New reservoir