Recording Prehistoric Tsunami Events on the Pacific Coast, Guerrero State, Mexico

Acknowledgements: Funding for this study was provided by NSF Grant EAR-0308500 and NSF Grant BCS-0211215 Teresa Ramirez William Lettis & Associates, Inc., 1777 Botelho Drive, Suite 262, Walnut Creek, CA 94596 email: ramirez@lettis.com Andrew Cundy, The University of Sussex Arturo Carranza-Edwards, UNAM, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar Eduardo Morales, UNAM, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar Vladimir Kostoglodov, UNAM, Insituto de Geofsica

William Lettis & Associates, Inc.

Abstract
The study of prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis using geomorphic features and deposits has provided valuable information in the assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards. These studies have been complemented with the analysis of the sediment recorded, where sudden changes on marine to terrestrial environments and vice versa can be record, and where tsunami deposits have been preserved. The Pacific coast of Mexico is a tectonically active coast that has experienced numerous large magnitude earthquakes (M>7.5) in historical time, and more than 50 documented tsunamis since 1732. Geomorphic and stratigraphic studies on the Guerrero coast reveal the feasibility of using the stratigraphic record of lagoonal sediments to document past earthquake and tsunami events on this coast. Core samples from nine study sites show distinct stratigraphic changes with depth, indicating clear rapid change in depositional environments over time. At least three tsunami events and possibly seven marine inwash events have been identified in the past 4600 years BP on the Guerrero coast. This information is significant to assess tsunami hazard and complements tsunami hazard mapping of this coast where the tsunami historical record is not well constrained.

1. Tectonic setting & seismicity

Guerrero Seismic Gap
Location of the Guerrero coast within the Guerrero gap. Subduction of the Cocos plate here occurs at convergence rates varying from 5.3 cm/yr to 5.8 cm/yr. The northwest Guerrero segment has experienced no large magnitude events since the 1911 earthquake, only a few Ms~6 events have occurred near its edges. A major interplate earthquake (~ Mw=8.1 to 8.4) has a high probability to occur.
22

Locked zone

North America Plate

Ja

1.4 cm /y r

20

1912

Latitude, N

20 03

RIV E

19

19
95

32

Mexico City
1920
19 73 86

Subduction events (interplate) Deep events (intraplate) Shallow crustal events (intraplate) Active volcanoes

located 55 km from the trench. Recurrence interval is estimated at 60 to 70 years. section of the Guerrero Gap is due for a large magnitude earthquake

2. Methods
Combined Approach :

3. Results - geomorphology
Geomorphology
Typical landscape of the Guerrero coast consists of a series of lagoons and bars. In general, the coastal landscape supports a model for long-term tectonic coastal subsidence of the Guerrero gap. A series of key geomorphic indicators such as elongated islands reminiscent of ancient barrier islands, submerged barrier islands, extensive marshy environments, increased depths in the lagoons close to the mid and southern areas of the gap, and submerged anthropologic features (shell mounds), among others, suggest active tectonic subsidence of the coast. Landscape variations within the gap from northwest to southeast indicate possible variations in the rates of deformation or perhaps tilting of the coast towards the southeast. Figure above shows example of landscape features at the Coyuca lagoon.

Assessing Land-level Changes During Earthquake Deformation Cycles on the Guerrero Coast

18

99

19

11
19 09
19 07

The northern

Geomorphic mapping and landform characterization Sediment-Stratigraphic studies Geochemical analysis

2 193

lis

1.9 cm /y r

19

199 7

198 1

ra ve Ri
RA F.Z.

co Bl oc k

at Pl

18

EG G
/yr cm 4.7

1994

1964
Gu erre ro g ap

198

19

1928 1945 1973 1999 1980 1959

1989

1937

1959

79

194

Introduction
The specific objectives of this study are (1) to derive rates of tectonic deformation from geomorphic and stratigraphic studies of the Guerrero coastal area, and (2) to examine the feasibility of this stratigraphic approach to identify prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis in the coastal lagoons of Guerrero, Mexican Pacific coast. The Guerrero gap coastal area, where a major earthquake is expected to occur, parallels the Cocos plate subduction zone. Convergence rates vary from 5.2 cm/yr to 5.8 cm/yr (Figure 1). The Guerrero gap has experienced several historical earthquakes, notably the 1911 (7.8 Ms) event. However, no large magnitude events since the 1911 earthquake and only a few M~6 events have occurred near the Guerrero gap edges. A major interplate earthquake of estimated magnitude Mw=8.1 to 8.4 has a high probability to occur. The probability for a tsunami occurrence is also high. Historical records indicate that at least 10 tsunamis have reached this coast since 1732 (Sanchez and Farreras, 1993). Typically, tsunami records in Mexico come from tidegauge registers. Tide-gauge measurements in Mexico initiated in 1952. This is a relatively short record to fully understand the hazard that tsunamis pose to the highly populated Mexican coast. Historical and register data indicate that at least 50 tsunamis reached the Pacific coast of Mexico since 1732; 34 of these tsunamis originated from local sources and all of them were produced by earthquakes (Sanchez and Farreras, 1993; Farreras, 1997). The maximum wave height recorded with tide-gauge instruments for the most recent tsunamis is 3.0 m. However, historical data for the last three centuries, based on visual observations, suggest that the tsunami wave heights on the Mexican Pacific coast can be larger. For instance, the November 16, 1925 tsunami that hit the Zihuatanejo coast, Guerrero state, produced an 11-m-high wave, and on June 22, 1932, the tsunami that arrived to Cuyutlan, Colima state, produced a 10-m-high wave. Both tsunamis produced considerable damage and human loss. Considering the short record of instrumentally registered tsunamis, tsunami hazard assessment based on these data might be underestimated. It is extremely important to integrate a record of prehistoric tsunamis based on geologic evidence of tsunami deposits on the Pacific coast of Mexico to fully understand tsunami hazard on this region. Deposits of prehistoric tsunamis

3
196 2

1928

85 19
cm /yr

Acapulco

1995

5.9 cm /yr

16

6.4 cm /yr

Z.

F.Z. OROZCO

Guerrero Gap
N MA OR G O

MAT

1982

195 7

193

5.3

199 6

196

1999

1931

1995

197

965
19 02
19 70

?
Caribbean Plate
19 50
19 03

Microfossil analysis (diatom, foraminifer, ostracod) 14C, 137Cs, 210Pb dating GPS measurements
90

EPR

F.

C PE

cm /yr

/yr

14
B &J K P

TE

108

106

104

102

6.5

cm

Cocos Plate
100 98

19 02

19 93

TE

6.8

19

42

96

94

92

Longitude, W

Mud Flats coring locations

4. Results - coring

Cored sediment description was made in the field with preliminary identification of terrestrial or marine units.

GPS Measurements

Coring sites

5. Results - core stratigraphy

ACA03-1
0 50

Core Stratigraphy
ACA03-3
0 0

ACA03-BS

El Plan lagoon Tetitlan lagoon

50

50

Depth (cm)

Depth (cm)

Coyuca lagoon

ACA03-1 ACA03-2 ACA03-1 ACA03-2 ACA03-1 ACA03-2

250

200

Depth (cm)

Mitla lagoon

Stratigraphy Cores ACA03-01 and ACA03-02, at Coyuca and Mitla lagoons, Guerrero Coast

100 100 150 150 150 100

200

200

300 250 250

Suitable (i.e. low elevation, relatively undisturbed) coastal sites in Guerrero state for coring.

Vibrocores taken (2m to 5m length) using an Atlas Cobra corer, to determine an outline coastal/lagoonal stratigraphy.

Cores were either sealed intact or subsampled in the field prior to laboratory analyses (i.e. 210Pb and 137Cs for nearsurface samples, and 14C dating; sediment geochemistry, granulometric, magnetic properties and paleomagnetics; and microfossil).

Acapulco bay Tres Palos lagoon

350 300 300

400

Individual core sites were located by GPS, to determine their elevations relative to semipermanent GPS stations setup during the project by a team from UNAM, headed by V. Kostoglodov.

450

350

350

4,664+/-52BP

1698+/-41BP

2810+/-44BP

Depths marked at local core 0.0 m level (not at 0 m sea level)

In total, 5 cores were taken in 2003 and 7 cores in 2004, from the Tres Palos, Coyuca, Mitla, Tetitlan and El Plan lagoon marshes (core ACA03-05 is not included in this study)

6. Results - sediment geochemistry

Interpretations of Elemental Distributions Distributions of 48 elements in core sediments predominantly reflect changes in stratigraphy/sediment composition. The geochemical and stratigraphic changes clearly indicate significant changes in depositional environment over time. There are significant downcore variations in Br, Ca, Sr, S, and Cl, .i.e. elements used in coastal settings as indicators of marine inwash events (e.g. tsunami), and the cores analyzed here show sedimentary horizons considerably enriched in Br, S, and/or Cl relative to underlying and overlying units.
0 0

Long-term Trend of Sea-level Changes

Ca (ppm)
0 0 -50 50 0 100 0 150 0 200 0 250 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 0 200 0 0 Fe (ppm) 400 0 0 600 0 0 800 0 0 1000 0 0 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 As (ppm) 8 10 12 0 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 10 20 30 40 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 0 20 La (ppm) 40 60 80 1 0 0 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 0 5 10 0 100 0 0

Interpretation of Marine Inwash Events In Core ACA03-01

A C A 03-1 N LO I B r C o n c e n tr a tio n (p p m ) 1 2 3 4
0 0 A C A 03-1 N LO I C a C o n c e n tr a tio n (p p m ) 5000 10000 15000 0 0 20 A C A 03- N LO I Sr 1 C o n c e n tr a tio n (p p m ) 40 60 80 100

Na (ppm)
200 0 0 300 0 0 400 0 0 500 0 0 0 -50 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 0 50 1 0 0

Fe/Mn 1 0 5 2 0 0 2 0 5 3 0 0

Cla and sil y clay ty

-1 0 0 -1 0 5

50

50

CSI? CSI S S S
CSI ?

50

Inter alated sands and cla s c with organics y Inter alated sands and cla s c

Dark blue cla y Sands

-2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0

100

100

100

150

?
150 200

150

Organic-rich sil ty clay

5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5

200

200

250

250

250

Sb (ppm)
300

% clay 15 20 25 30

300

300

0
350

350

350

0 -50

400

400

S Ca - NLOI

400

450

450

450

Cla and sil y clay ty

-1 0 0 -1 0 5

4,664+/-52BP

The geochemestry of Las Salinas core sediments indicates four different events in time: 1) an initial stage of brackish/lagoonal setting indicated by the lowest/bottom (organic rich silty clay), at about 4630 +/- 37 yr BP; 2) a second event of a marine flooding inwash as shown by sands and intercalated sands and clay, at about 2836 +/- 34yr BP; 3) a marine setting indicated by the dark blue clay; and finally, 4) a terrestrial/lagoonal? environment indicated by the upper (0-190 cm) clay and silty clay. Diatom data confirm this interpretation.

Stratigraphic and geochemical indicators of paleosalinity (Br > Sr > Ca >>Na > Cs >U) in the coastal marshes of Guerrero reflect abrupt contacts between sediments Stratigraphic and geochemical indicators of paleosalinity record sudden land and sea level changes Pilot study-cores at Coyuca and Tres Palos lagoons. Cores show stratigraphic changes with abrupt contacts between sediments that clearly indicate significant changes in depositional environment over time. Red arrows show sharp contacts between sediment types. Depths are in cm. 7 marine inwash events and possibly 3 tsunami events are recorded by stratigraphic/sediment and paleosalinity indicators Radiocarbon dates imply a sedimentation and long term subsidence rate of ~ 1 mm/yr Ongoing 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs dating will estimate ages of paleoearthquakes and tsunami events

Conclusion

S- saltwater inundation or marine inwash; CSI - catastrophic saltwater inundation (e.g. tsunami).
NLOI-Non loss on ignition

Br - NLOI

Sr - NLOI

Inter alated sands and cla s c with organics y Inter alated sands and cla s c

Dark blue clay Sands

-2 0 0 -2 0 5 -3 0 0 -3 0 5 -4 0 0 -4 0 5

Organic-rich sil ty clay