UNIVERSITY OF DAR ES SALAAM BUSINESS SCHOOL

NAME: MALYETA, GEORGE LUGEMBE, REG: No. 2010-06-01774 COURSE: IM 622 LOGISTICS INFORMATION SYSTEMS DEPARTMENT OF GENERAL MANAGEMENT

ASSIGNMENT No. 3: EXPERT SYSTEMS COURSE COORDINATER: DR. MBAMBA, U

Introduction Expert systems are one of support systems tools used in decision making in business by management. These knowledge base systems contain both the inference rules that are followed in decision making and the parameters or facts relevant to the decision. Expert Systems An expert system is computer software that uses a knowledge base of human expertise for problem solving, or to clarify uncertainties where normally one or more human experts would need to be consulted. As a computer simulation that represent a significant portion of the Specialized knowledge of a human expert in a specific, narrow field, and try to be like the decision-making ability of the human expert. It performs a task that would otherwise be performed by a human expert. For example, there are expert systems that can diagnose human illnesses, make financial forecasts, and schedule routes for delivery vehicles. Some expert systems are designed to take the place of human experts, while others are designed to aid them. Expert systems are part of a general category of computer applications known as artificial intelligence These expert systems have proven to be quite successful. Most Applications of expert systems will fall into one of the following categories: Interpreting and identifying Predicting Diagnosing Designing Planning Monitoring Debugging and testing Instructing and training Controlling Examples of Decision Making The expert system is used in transport and logistics in planning and scheduling example in airline industry its used in decision making of scheduling of flights, personnel and gates. Example: Southwest developed its own Integrated Flight Tracking System [Swift] in 1995. SWIFT allows 37 dispatchers the ability to track 2,200 daily flights, in just 45 seconds [previously a 15 minute calculation]. Swift provides AI decision-making, removing the need to

manually filter through irrelevant information. Maintenance, planning, and other functions have since been integrated to Swift. In manufacturing industry job scheduling and manufacturing planning Configuration of Manufactured Objects from Subassemblies for example, modular home building, manufacturing, and other problems involving complex engineering design and manufacturing Design and Manufacturing .These systems assist in the design of physical devices and processes, ranging from high-level conceptual design of abstract entities all the way to factory floor configuration of manufacturing processes. The financial services industry has been a vigorous user of expert system techniques. Advisory programs have been created to assist bankers in determining whether to make loans to businesses and individuals. Insurance companies have used expert systems to assess the risk presented by the customer and to determine a price for the insurance. A typical application in the financial markets is in foreign exchange trading. Multi-Agent System for Pharmaceutical supply chains (MASP) is developed to control and secure the supply chain and make sure that the product that get out of the manufacturer will find its right way to customers In modern telecommunications industry, demand & supply chain management needs reliable design and flexible tools to control the material flow. The objective for efficient demand and supply chain management is reducing inventory, lead times and related costs in order to assure reliable and on-time deliveries from manufacturing units towards customers. All these are possible by using expert systems like user control model MRP Advantages and Disadvantages Advantages y y y y y Provides consistent answers for repetitive decisions, processes and tasks Holds and maintains significant levels of information Encourages organizations to clarify the logic of their decision-making Never "forgets" to ask a question, as a human might Can work round the clock

Can be used by the user more frequently A multi-user expert system can serve more users at a time

Disadvantages y y y y y Lacks common sense needed in some decision making Cannot make creative responses as human expert would in unusual circumstances Domain experts not always able to explain their logic and reasoning Errors may occur in the knowledge base, and lead to wrong decisions Cannot adapt to changing environments, unless knowledge base is changed