NATIONAL MANAGEMENT COLLEGE

Senior Management Wing 9th Senior Management Course

SIMULATION EXERCISE-II

Zaraat: Hikmat-e-Amli Aur Amal Daraamad

SYNDICATE-3 Salman Choudhry PSP

INTER-PROVINCIAL COMMISSION ON WATER MANAGEMENT AND WATER DISTRIBUTION AMONGST THE PROVINCES OF PAKISTAN
1

Sequence
Introduction Research Methodology Terms of Reference Historical perspective of water disputes IRSA Provincial set up Analysis Recommendations
2

Introduction
2011 2025

Is this our future?

Or this.

Key Facts of the Irrigation System

Major Reservoirs Barrages/Head-works Interlink Canals Canal Systems Length of water courses Length of Canals Average Water Available 3 18 12 44 107,000 Kms 56,073 Kms 104.7 MAF

Ground Water Estimates Irrigated Land

41.6 MAF 44.5 Million Acres

6

Research Methodology

Primary: Year Book 2004-05 & 2005-06, Ministry of Water & Power. The Indus Water Treaty 1960. Water Apportionment Accord 1991. National Water Policy Draft 2006. Vision 2030, Planning Commission, Islamabad. Economic Survey 2009-10.
8

Contd,
Secondary Sources: Problems and Politics of Water Sharing and Management in Pakistan, edited by Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Rashid Ahmed Khan & Ahmad Rashid Malik. Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), 2007. The Politics of Managing Water edited by Kaiser Bengali Oxford University Press 2003. Kala Bagh Dam and Sindh; A View Point by Muhammad Idris Rajput, Sindh Graduates Association (SGA) April 2005. Indus Water Treaty in Retrospect by Mr. Bashir A. Malik, Lahore 2005.
9

Contd,
Interviews:
Mr. Rab Nawaz, Secretary Irrigation Punjab Mr. M. H. Siddiqi, Consultant Irrigation Punjab Mr. Tariq Hameed, ex Chairman WAPDA Ch. Muhammed Amin IRSA Islamabad Syed Muhammed Ali Shah, GM Water, WAPDA Interview with Mr. Javed Majeed, ex Secretary Irrigation Punjab.
10

Terms of Reference
To conduct critical appraisal of the water distribution & management structure To have an overview of the various committees constituted for water distribution amongst the provinces To analyze the role of IRSA and effective implementation of its decisions To evaluate the water distribution and management perspective of each province To study the Water Policy of the Government
11

Contd,
To understand why Pakistan is suffering water losses and becoming water stressed country To study what are the reasons of insufficient water storage capacity To examine international best practices and their applicability in Pakistan To understand the plans for improving water storage for the future
12

History of water disputes

13

Contd,
Darlay Committee 1929 Anderson Committee 1935 Rau Commission 1942 Draft Agreement 1945 Operational Agreement 1947 Indus Water Treaty 1960
14

Contd,
Akhtar Hussain Committee 1968 Fazal e Akbar Committee 1970 Adhoc Decision of Federal Government 1971 Anwar ul Haq Commission 1977 Haleem Commission 1982 Water Accord 1991

15

Calm Waters WAA 1991or an Illusion

16

Indus River System Authority (IRSA)

Created under Act XXII 1992 as a result of WAA 1991 4+1 Members All provinces represented for 3 years One member from Federal Government Chairman on rotation amongst the members for 1 year
17

Role of IRSA
Regulation & Distribution of surface water Settlement of any dispute between the provinces Monitor the water discharge from the RIM stations on the rivers & canals Compile 10 days situation report for water distribution Operating the telemetry system
18

Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) 1991Para 2

PROVINCE KHARIF RABI TOTAL (MAF) 55.94 48.76 5.78 3.00 3.87 114.35 +3.00

Punjab
Sindh* KP Civil canals** Baluchistan Total

37.07
33.94 3.48 1.80 2.85 77.34 + 1.80

18.87
14.82 2.30 1.20 1.02 37.01 +1.20

48.92%
42.64% 5.06%

3.38% 100%

*Including already sanctioned urban & Industrial uses for Karachi **Un-gauged civil canals above the RIM Stations
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Para 4 WAA 1991

In case there is surplus water (including flood supplies and future storages) it will be distributed as follows: Punjab 37% Sindh 37% Baluchistan 12% KP 14% Total 100 %
20

Para 6 WAA 1991

The need for storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognized by the participants for planned future agricultural development Sindh agreed to develop consensus on Kalabagh Dam KP Government didnt agree on this clause later on
(M.H. Siddiqi Consultant & Participant of WAA 1991)
21

Para 14 (b) WAA 1991

The record of actual average system uses for the period 1977-82 would form the guideline for developing a future regulation pattern. Those 10 daily uses would be adjusted pro rata to correspond to the indicated seasonal allocations of the different canal systems and would form the basis for sharing shortages & surpluses on all Pakistan basis
22

Disputes
In 2003 Musharaff regime made the federal representative permanently from Sindh Unable to develop consensus on future storage plans Para 14 is a bone of contention for Sindh (what if there is shortage of water) A new formula known as three tier devised
23

Three tier formula since 2003

Scenario I Water Availability is less than Actual Average System Using 1977-82 timeline water to be Distributed as per 14 (b) of the WAA 1991 Scenario II Water Availability is greater Actual Average System Using timeline 1977-82, but less than Para 2 of WAA 1991, then the water is distributed on: Actual Average System Uses are protected Balance available as per Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI
24

Contd,
Scenario III When Water Availability is greater than Para 2 of WAA 1991, the water is distributed as per: Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI are protected Balance as per Para 4 of the WAA 1991

25

Comparison of para 2 & 14 (b)

PROVINCES Para 2 MAF 1 Punjab Sindh 2 55.94 48.76 % 3 48.92 42.64 Para 14 (b) MAF 4 54.51 43.53 % 5 53.06 42.37 Difference MAF (2-4) 6 1.43 5.23 % 7 12 45

Baluchistan
KP Total

3.87
5.78 114.35

3.38
5.06 100

1.63
3.06 102.73

1.59
2.98 100

2.24
2.72 11.62

19
24 100
26

IRSA, Islamabad 2011

Provincial Set Up

27

Punjab
Head works & Barrages 13 Main Canals 25 Length of Main Canals & Branches 6,389 kms Length of Distributaries & Minor 30,706 kms Canals Length of Inter River Link Canals 845 kms Off Take capacity of main Canals 120,000 cusecs Off Take Capacity of Link Canals 110,000 cusecs Gross Command Area 23.35 million acres
Irrigation Department, Government of Punjab 2011
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Perspective of Punjab
Punjab feels that IRSA is not functioning on fair basis The storage capacity of Terbala & Mangla is dwindling Lack of funding for the existing canal system Over exploitation of underground water (800,000 tube wells) Economic Value of water Rs. 84 per acre Kharif Rs. 50 per acre Rabi
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Balochistan (Area Under Cultivation acres)

1971-72 Canals 600,000 Wells 9,600 Tube wells 45,600 Karez 67,200 Artificial Tanks 4,800 1,159,200 2008-09 1,203,326 31,051 563,601 188,520 0 1,986,499 % Change 101% 223% 1136% -62% -100%

Irrigation Department, Government of Balochistan 2011

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Perspective of Balochistan
Karez system in shambles Tube wells lowering ground water Spate inundation due to flash floods Joined the bandwagon of opposition to Kalabagh

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Sukkur Barrage

32

Sindh
Head works & Barrages Main Canals Length of Main Canals & Branches Length of Distributaries & Minor Canals Length of Inter River Link Canals 3 13 6,963 Kms 10,599 Kms 0

Off Take Capacity of Main Canals

Off Take Capacity of Link Canals Gross Command Area

138,210 cusecs
0 12.12 million acres
33

Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh

Perspective of Sindh
Not happy with present sharing system Shortages in Kahrif season Storage in Mangla Operation of Links Canals in Punjab Intrusion of sea into the Indus Delta

34

Gomal Zam Dam

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KP
Reservoirs Flow Irrigation Schemes Lift irrigation Schemes Irrigation Tube wells 14 83 45 356

Average Water Withdrawals

Length of Canals Gross Command Area

6 MAF
4,335 Kms 2.28 Million Acres
36

Irrigation Department, Government of KP 2011

Canal Systems in KP

10 Canal Systems

Length 2,974 Kms

Discharge 12,948 Cusecs

Area 1.21 million acres

Irrigation Department, Government of KP 2011

37

Perspective of KP
Less storage capacity Stress on Chashma Right Bank Canal System No protective embankments on Rivers Swat, Kunhar & Kabul Creating grounds not to build Kalabagh Dam Royalties from Terbela

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Analysis

39

Mistrust
Lack of trust amongst the provinces especially between Sindh & Punjab (no water for even washing dead bodies) Difference on the interpretation on the WAA 1991 Construction of additional storage (para 6) Minimum escapage to sea (para 7) 10 MAF or 39 MAF The mode of sharing shortages para 14(b) or 3 tier formula
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Future perspective

41

Water Projections
Sectors Agriculture Water 2010 Water 2025 Additional (MAF) (MAF) Requirement 100 128 28

Municipal & Rural Water Supply Industry Total

5.8

12.2

6.4

2.2

4.8

2.6

108

145

37
42

WAPDA 2003, & Courtesy Mr. Tariq Hameed ex Chairman WAPDA

Where do we stand
River Basin Nile River Colorado Sutlej Beas India Total Yellow River Columbia Indus Basin World
WAPDA 2011

Capacity (MAF) 132 59.62 11.32 245 68.95 34 18.37 8,000

Days 1000 900

120 120 60 30 3,000

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Response

44

Draft Water Policy 2006

Initiated in 2002 and completed in 2006 Still lying with Ministry of Water & Power Federal Government since 2007 Contention of the previous government was that the new government may approve the policy The views of all stakeholders not reflected Cold feet by Federal Government despite the bleak future
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Principles of the policy

Realization Improvement Community participation Management of available water High Yields Crops Increase the water storage capacity

46

How?
Silence on the operational mechanism Trained faculty of river hydrology in any public or private sector university The economic value of water has not been calculated or debated even The quality of water is very poor Sluicing technology India is strangling Pakistan on the Western Rivers
Interviews with Mr. Tariq Hameed and Mr. Javed Majeed
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Loss of Storage Capacity

Original Capacity (MAF) 11.62 Loss 2003 Loss 2010 Loss 2015 Loss 2020 3.14 (27%) 3.95 (34%) 4.43 (38%) 4.98 (43%)

Terbala (1974)

Mangla 5.88 (1967) Chashma 0.87 (1971) Total 18.37

WAPDA 2010

1.21 (21%) 0.38 (44%) 4.73 (26%)

1.60 (27%) 0.48 (55%) 6.03 (33%)

1.63 (28%) 0.50 (57%) 6.56 (36%)

1.79 (30%) 0.50 (57%) 7.27 (40%)

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Sluicing for Dams

49

A rose between two Thorns (India & Afghanistan)

Baghliar Dam Kishanganga Uri II Dam on River Kabul in Afghanistan Carbon Rights Future of the IWT 1960

50

Efficient Irrigation Techniques

Sprinkler System: It is still in infancy stage Not widely used in Pakistan Used in Mid West USA Energy Intensive Expensive installation
T.E. Bilderback & M. A Powell, North Carolina USA
51

Contd,

52

Contd,
Drip System Orchards Salinity can effect the lines Not widely used in Pakistan Can reduce wastage by 70%
T.E. Bilderback & M. A Powell, North Carolina USA
53

Contd,
Change the crop Pattern Paddy and Sugar Cane is not suitable for Southern Sector Introduction of High Yield and Less Water Intensive Crops

54

Recommendations

55

Short Term 2-5 years

Active Conflict Resolution Mechanism Review of Federal Nominee to IRSA Regulation of Ground water usage Water rates Legislation on water related issues Safety of dams Contamination of surface & Ground waters Safe Drinking water
56

Medium Term 5-7 years

Lining of canals to stop water seepage (45-50%) New telemetry system Coordination between Meteorological and Irrigation departments Drip & Sprinkler system Interprovincial accord on new storage capacity They can do it! Look at 18th Amendment & NFC Award
57

Contd,
Small dams on hill torrents Mirani Dam IWT has served for 50 yrs, Pakistan must make best use of the option to build dams on western rivers to lay its claim Sluicing technology for dams

58

Long Term 7-10 years

There is no alternative, but to build new dams

59

The Future
Schemes Basha Dam Storage MAF 9.04 To be started

Kalabagh Dam
Akhori Dam Kurram Tengi Dam ManglaDam Raising

6.1
7.04 0.92

Doldrums
Design Complete Completed

8.01

Complete, filling not started

60

Contd,
Schemes Satpara Dam Sabakzai Dam Mirani Dam Munda Dam Gomal Zam Dam TOTAL Storage MAF 0.93 0.03 0.2 0.67 0.65 33.59

Complete Design completed Complete Design complete Complete

WAPDA 2004 & 2010

61

Plan B
In case of any laxity or calamity no alternative plan can be offered. The syndicate believes that this is the only way out as mentioned The source of water is not infinite and we need to store water. The only available technology or solution is to build dams

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The future

63

Thank you

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