/$$0$=21,$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2
1LFROiV&DVWDxR$UEROHGD
5(680(1
/ D $PD]RQLD HV HO VLVWHPD ERVFRVR PiV JUDQ
GH GHO PXQGR \ FRQWLHQH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH
3HWDJUDPRVGH&DUERQRORTXHHTXLYDOHD
DSUR[LPDGDPHQWHGpFDGDVGHHPLVLRQHVGH'Ly[LGR
GH&DUERQRLQGXFLGDVSRUHOKRPEUH$OPDFHQDUHVWD
LQPHQVD FDQWLGDG GH &DUERQR LPSOLFD TXH FXDOTXLHU
UHDFFLyQGHOERVTXHIUHQWHDORVFDPELRVGHODDWPyV
IHUDVHDPX\LQIOX\HQWHHQHOFOLPDGHWRGRHOSODQHWD
([LVWHXQDJUDQFDQWLGDGGHLQIRUPDFLyQFLHQWtILFDVR
EUHHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\ODVGLIHUHQWHVUHDFFLRQHVGHO
ERVTXHDPD]yQLFRFRPRWDPELpQXQDFUHFLHQWHOtQHD
GHPRGHODFLyQTXHSUHGLFHQODVFRQGLFLRQHVIXWXUDVGH
ORVERVTXHVWURSLFDOHV(OSUHVHQWHDUWtFXORUHDOL]DXQD
UHYLVLyQFRPHQWDGDGHODOLWHUDWXUDPiVUHFLHQWH\UHOH
YDQWHVREUHODVFRQGLFLRQHVELRItVLFDVGHOERVTXHDPD
]yQLFRIUHQWHDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\SUHVHQWDODVFRQ
GLFLRQHVGHOD$PD]RQLDFRORPELDQDHQHVHHVFHQDULR
3$/$%5$6&/$9(
$PD]RQLDFDPELRFOLPiWLFRERVTXHJDVHVGHHIHFWR
LQYHUQDGHUR
$%675$&7
=RQDDOHGDxDDFRPXQLGDGtQGLJHQD$OWRULR1HJUR*XDLQLD1LFRODV&DVWDxR
GHFDGHVRIKXPDQHPLVVLRQVRI&27RVWRUDJHWKLV
KXJHDPRXQWRI&DUERQLQYROYHVWKDWDQ\IRUHVWUHDF
WLRQLQIURQWRIDWPRVSKHULFFKDQJHVZLOOEHYHU\LQ
IOXHQWLDORQWKHJOREDOFOLPDWH7KHUHLVDODUJHDPRXQW
RIVFLHQWLILFLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQG
WKHGLIIHUHQWSRVVLEOHUHDFWLRQVRIWKH$PD]RQIRUHVW
7KHUHKDVEHHQDQLQFUHDVHLQFOLPDWHPRGHOLQJWKDW
SUHGLFWVWKHIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHWURSLFDOIRUHVWV
7KLVSDSHUSUHVHQWVDFRPPHQWHGUHYLHZRIWKHUH
FHQW OLWHUDWXUH DERXW WKH ELRSK\VLFDO FRQGLWLRQV RI
WKH$PD]RQIRUHVWXQGHUFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGSUHVHQWV
WKH&RORPELDQ$PD]RQFRQGLWLRQVLQWKLVVFHQDULR
.(<:25'6
$PD]RQFOLPDWHFKDQJHIRUHVWJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV
,1752'8&&,Ð1
¢&XiOVHUiHOIXWXURGHODVHOYDDPD]yQLFDFRQHODX
PHQWR GHVPHGLGR GH JDVHV HIHFWR LQYHUQDGHUR HQ OD
DWPyVIHUD"(VWDHVXQDSUHJXQWDFX\DUHVSXHVWDWLHQH
LPSOLFDFLRQHVSDUDODFRQVHUYDFLyQGHFHUFDGHPLO
GH HVSHFLHV GH SODQWDV  HVSHFLHV GH PDPtIHURV
GHHVSHFLHVGHDYHVSXHEORVLQGtJHQDV\SDUD
7KHDPD]RQEDVLQKDVWKHELJJHVWIRUHVWLQWKHZRUOG
,WFRQWDLQVDURXQG3J&DUERQ,WPHDQVDERXW

,QYHVWLJDGRU,QVWLWXWR6LQFKLQFDVWDxR#VLQFKLRUJFR
HOFOLPDGHWRGRHOSODQHWD3180$27&$
/RVERVTXHVDPD]yQLFRVHVWiQVRPHWLGRVDGLIHUHQWHV
WLSRVGHSUHVLRQHVHQODUHJLyQODGHPDQGDGHUHFXU
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2

VRV FRPR OHxD DOLPHQWRV FDFHUtD PLQHUtD PDGHUD JHQHUDQGRXQDUiSLGDPRGLILFDFLyQGHODVFRQGLFLR

HQWUHRWURVHVWiHQDXPHQWR3180$27&$ QHV QDWXUDOHV HQ WRGR HO SODQHWD &KULVWHQVHQ HW DO
3RURWURODGRHQORV~OWLPRVDxRVKDQDXPHQWDGRORV D(VWDDFXPXODFLyQGH*(,PRGLILFDODVFRQ
LQFHQGLRV TXH GHYDVWDQ JUDQGHV H[WHQVLRQHV GH ERV GLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVTXHDVXYH]PRGLILFDQODVFRQGL
TXHQDWXUDO%HWWVHWDO$OODGHIRUHVWD FLRQHVGHYLGDTXHKR\FRQRFHPRV/RVFDPELRVHQHO
FLyQDFXPXODGDHQOD$PD]RQLDHUDGH.P FOLPDGHODUHJLyQ$PD]yQLFDQRVRORKDQJHQHUDGR
TXHHTXLYDOHDXQDUHGXFFLyQGHOGHODFREHUWXUD XQDGHJUDGDFLyQGHODVGLQiPLFDVQDWXUDOHVHQODUH
QDWXUDO 3180$27&$  \ VH HVWLPD TXH ORV JLyQ 3KLOOLSV HW DO  WDPELpQ HVWiQ SRQLHQGR
SODQHVGHH[SDQVLyQGHODLQIUDHVWUXFWXUDHQODUHJLyQ HQULHVJRHOHTXLOLEULRFOLPiWLFRGHOSODQHWD(OHQRU
SRGUtDQUHGXFLUODFREHUWXUDHQXQGHOiUHDRUL PHYROXPHQGH&DUERQRDOPDFHQDGRHQORVERVTXHV
JLQDOSDUDHO6RDUHVHWDO DPD]yQLFRV LPSOLFD TXH FXDOTXLHU UHDFFLyQ GHO VLV
WHPD ERVFRVR PiV JUDQGH GHO SODQHWD IUHQWH D ORV
(ODXPHQWRGHODGHPDQGDDJURLQGXVWULDOVR\D\ELR FDPELRVDPELHQWDOHVVHDPX\LQIOX\HQWHHQHOFOLPD
FRPEXVWLEOHVHODXPHQWRGHLQFHQGLRVODGHIRUHVWD JOREDO (O ERVTXH DPD]yQLFR FRQWLHQH DSUR[LPDGD
FLyQSDUDJDQDGHUtD\ODWDODVHOHFWLYDGHHVSHFLHVWLHQHQ PHQWH3HWDJUDPRV3HWDJUDPR 3J JUD
LPSDFWRLQPHGLDWRVREUHODFREHUWXUDERVFRVD1HSV PRV GH &DUERQR \ FHUFD GH  3J &DUERQR VL VH
WDGHWDO6XPDGRDHVWRVIDFWRUHVH[LVWHRWUD WLHQHHQFXHQWDHO&DUERQRDOPDFHQDGRHQVXVVXHORV
SUHVLyQDJUDQHVFDODTXHHVPiVVXWLOSHURTXHSXHGH 0DOKL 3KLOOLSV(VWDFDQWLGDGGH&DUERQR
WHQHULPSOLFDFLRQHVPD\RUHVHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR HTXLYDOH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH D  GpFDGDV GH HPLVLR
QHVGH'Ly[LGRGH&DUERQRLQGXFLGDVSRUHOKRPEUH
'HELGR D OD DFWLYLGDG KXPDQD OD DFXPXODFLyQ GH &DQDGHOOHWDO(VDVtFRPRHQODEDODQ]DGH
*DVHV(IHFWR,QYHUQDGHUR*(,HQODDWPyVIHUDHVWi &DUERQRHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRHVXQIDFWRUTXHSXH

6DQWDFODUD$PD]RQDV$XJXVWR0D]RUUD

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
GHOOHJDUDHTXLOLEUDURGHVHTXLOLEUDUODVFRQGLFLRQHV
YLWDOHVGHODWLHUUD
/DV SHUVSHFWLYDV GHO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR QR VRQ QDGD
DOHQWDGRUDV(QHOHO*UXSR,QWHUJXEHUQDPHQWDO
GH ([SHUWRV VREUH &DPELR &OLPiWLFR ,3&& SRU VXV
OLWHUDWXUDFLHQWtILFDPiVUHFLHQWHVREUHODVDOWHUDFLRQHV
DFWXDOHV\SUHGLFFLRQHVIXWXUDVGHOFRPSRQHQWHELR
ItVLFRGHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFR&DEHUHVDOWDUTXHH[LVWH
LJXDOPHQWHXQLQPHQVRGHEDWHpWLFRVRFLDO\HFRQy
PLFR VREUH ODV LPSOLFDFLRQHV GHO &DPELR &OLPiWLFR
HQOD$PD]RQLDYJ3DUU\HWDO0F0LFKDHOHW
VLJODVHQLQJOpVSUHVHQWyXQDVHULHGHSRVLEOHVHVFHQD DO$OYHV%R\G%URQGL]LR 0R
ULRVTXHFRQWHPSODEDQFDQWLGDGHVGLIHUHQWHVGHHPL UDQ(EHOLQJ <DVXp6DZ\HUHO
VLRQHVGH*(,\VXVSRVLEOHVLPSOLFDFLRQHV'RVDxRV FXDOHVWDQH[WHQVRFRPRUHOHYDQWH\UHTXLHUHGHXQD
PiV WDUGH OD $OLDQ]D ,QWHUQDFLRQDO GH 8QLYHUVLGDGHV DPSOLDUHYLVLyQTXHQRVHWUDWDHQHOSUHVHQWHDUWtFXOR
GH ,QYHVWLJDFLyQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $OOLDQFH RI 5HVHDUFK 8QL
YHUVLWLHVUHDOL]DURQDLQLFLRVGHOHQ'LQDPDUFDHO
&RQJUHVR,QWHUQDFLRQDO&DPELR&OLPiWLFR5LHVJRVJORED
OHVUHWRV\GHFLVLRQHVHOFXDOSURGXMRXQFRPSHQGLRGH
VHLVPHQVDMHVFODYHVTXHSUHWHQGHQDFWXDOL]DUODFRP
SUHQVLyQGHODVDIHFWDFLRQHVTXHSURGXFHHOFDPELRFOL
PiWLFR8QRGHORVPHQVDMHVPiVLPSRUWDQWHVDQLYHO
ELRItVLFRHVTXHODVHPLVLRQHVGH*(,\ODVYDULDEOHVFOL
PiWLFDVWHPSHUDWXUDPHGLDVXSHUILFLDOQLYHOGHOPDU
WHPSHUDWXUDGHORVRFpDQRVH[WHQVLyQGHORVRFpDQRV
iUWLFRVDFLGLILFDFLyQGHORVRFpDQRV\HYHQWRVFOLPiWL
&$86$6'(/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2
(OOODPDGRHIHFWRLQYHUQDGHURKDSHUPLWLGRODVFRQGL
FLRQHVSDUDTXHVHGHVDUUROOHODYLGDHQHOSODQHWD/D
UDGLDFLyQTXHUHFLELPRVGHOVROVHSHUGHUtDGHQRVHU
SRUODVSDUWtFXODVGHFLHUWRVFRPSXHVWRVTXtPLFRVTXH
HMHUFHQ XQ IHQyPHQR QDWXUDO GH DEVRUEHU \ UHPLWLU
FLHUWDVRQGDVTXHPDQWLHQHQHOFDORUSURYHQLHQWHGHO
VRO/DJUDQPD\RUtDGHORVOODPDGRV*DVHVGH(IHFWR
FRV H[WUHPRV HVWiQ VXSHUDQGR ORV SHRUHV HVFHQDULRV
SURSXHVWRVSRUHO,3&&HQHO(VWRVLJQLILFDTXH
HVWDPRVYLYLHQGRLPSDFWRVPiVDJUHVLYRVTXHORVSUR
QRVWLFDGRVKDFHSRFRVDxRV$GHPiVORVVHLVPHQVDMHV
UHFDOFDQHQWUHRWURVWHPDVTXHDXQTXHQRKD\DXQD
GLVPLQXFLyQ GH ODV HPLVLRQHV PXFKDV WHQGHQFLDV VH
DFHOHUDUiQORTXHJHQHUDUtDXQLQFUHPHQWRHQHOULHV
,QYHUQDGHUR*(,VRQSURGXFWRVQDWXUDOHVGHUHDF
FLRQHVFRPRODUHVSLUDFLyQGHDQLPDOHV\SODQWDVOD
GHVFRPSRVLFLyQGHODPDWHULDRUJiQLFDODFRPEXVWLyQ
\SURFHVRVTXtPLFRVQDWXUDOHVHQHOVXHOR\ODDWPyV
IHUDHQWUHRWUDV(O2]RQR\VXVSUHFXUVRUHVHOYDSRU
GHDJXDHO'Ly[LGRGH&DUERQR\HO0HWDQRVRQDOJX
QRVGHORV*(,TXHVHHQFXHQWUDQHQODQDWXUDOH]DHQ
JRGHFDPELRVFOLPiWLFRVDEUXSWRVRLUUHYHUVLEOHVDORV FLHUWDVSURSRUFLRQHVLQGHSHQGLHQWHGHODLQFLGHQFLD
FXDOHVWDQWRODKXPDQLGDGFRPRODQDWXUDOH]DVRQDOWD GHOKRPEUH
PHQWHYXOQHUDEOHV5LFKDUGVRQHWDO
'HELGRDODDFWLYLGDGKXPDQDODH[FHVLYDFRQFHQWUD
(Q PDU]R GH  VH UHDOL]y HQ OD 8QLYHUVLGDG GH
2[IRUG HO WDOOHU LQWHUQDFLRQDO WLWXODGR ´&DPELR FOL
PiWLFR\HOGHVWLQRGHOD$PD]RQLDµ(VWHWDOOHUWXYR
FRPRREMHWLYRSULQFLSDOFRQGHQVDUGHVGHGLIHUHQWHV
SHUVSHFWLYDVGHODFLHQFLDHOGHEDWHGHO&DPELR&OL
PiWLFRHQODUHJLyQ$PD]yQLFD3URGXFWRGHHVWHWDOOHU
ODUHYLVWD3KLORVRSKLFDO7UDQVDFWLRQVRI7KH5R\DO6RFLHW\%
FLyQHQODDWPyVIHUDGHORV*(,)LJXUDKDJHQHUD
GRXQFDOHQWDPLHQWRLQXVXDOTXHDVXYH]GHVHQFDGH
QDXQDVHULHGHUHDFFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVTXHUHSHUFXWHQ
HQFDGDIUDFFLyQGHOSODQHWD(OFRQVXPRGHFRPEXV
WLEOHVIyVLOHVFRPRHOFDUEyQHOJDVQDWXUDOHOSHWUyOHR
\VXVGHULYDGRVJDVROLQDJDVSURSDQRDFHLWHV\JUDVDV
GHPRWRUEUHDDVIDOWR\P~OWLSOHVSHWURTXtPLFRVSDUD
SXEOLFyDUWtFXORVRULJLQDOHVTXHVRQXQSUHFHGHQWH SURGXFLUSOiVWLFRV\GLVROYHQWHVHQWUHRWURVODSURGXF
~QLFRGHLQIRUPDFLyQVREUHORVFDPELRVHQODDWPyV FLyQ GH FHPHQWR \ OD WDOD \ OD TXHPD GH ORV ERVTXHV
IHUD \ VXV LPSOLFDFLRQHV VREUH OD UHJLyQ $PD]yQLFD JHQHUDQ HPLVLRQHV LQPHQVDV GH 'Ly[LGR GH &DUERQR
$GHPiVGHHVWDLQIRUPDFLyQHQORV~OWLPRVDxRVVH &2/DHODERUDFLyQGHIHUWLOL]DQWHVTXtPLFRVODID
KDQ SXEOLFDGR QXPHURVDV FRQWULEXFLRQHV FLHQWtILFDV EULFDFLyQGHQ\ORQ\ODH[WUDFFLyQGHFRPEXVWLEOHVIyVL
VREUHHOWHPDHQUHYLVWDVGHDOWRQLYHOFLHQWtILFRFRPR OHVHQWUHRWURVSURGXFHQFDQWLGDGHVLQPHQVDVGHÐ[L
6FLHQFH1DWXUH-RXUQDORI&OLPDWHHQWUHRWUDV(OSUH GR1LWURVR12$VXYH]HOSURFHVRGHH[WUDFFLyQ\
VHQWHDUWtFXORSUHVHQWDXQDUHYLVLyQFRPHQWDGDGHOD FRPEXVWLyQGHORVFRPEXVWLEOHVIyVLOHVORVEDVXUHURV\

5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$ 
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2

),*85$,1&5(0(172(1*$6(6()(&72,19(51$'(52720$'2'(,3&&&8$5725(3257(*5832'(75$%$-2,%$6()Ì6,&$'(/$&,(1&,$

HOH[FUHPHQWRGHORVUXPLDQWHVHQWUHRWURVSURGXFHQ VHUHIOHMDSULQFLSDOPHQWHHQHYHQWRVGHOOXYLDVLQWHQ
HQRUPHVFDQWLGDGHVGH0HWDQR&+7RGRVHVWRVJD VRVRVHTXtDVSURORQJDGDV)LQDOPHQWHHODXPHQWRHQ
VHVVRQTXtPLFDPHQWHHVWDEOHVSRUORTXHSXHGHQOOHJDU ODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVDWPRVIpULFDVJHQHUDXQDDFLGLILFD
DSHUVLVWLUHQHODPELHQWHGXUDQWHVLJORVGHPRGRTXH FLyQGHORVRFpDQRVFRQHIHFWRVGUiVWLFRVSDUDODYLGD
VXSUHVHQFLDLQIOXHQFLDHOFOLPDDPX\ODUJRSOD]R6R DFXiWLFD+RHJK*XOGEHUJ
ORPRQHWDO
/RV*(,GHSURGXFFLyQQHWDPHQWHDQWUySLFDVRQSULQ
FLSDOPHQWHWRGRVORVFORURIOXRURFDUERQDGRVTXHIXH
URQPX\SRSXODUHVHQODLQGXVWULDGHORVUHIULJHUDQWHV
/$$0$=21,$$&78$/<(/&/,0$
$WUDYpVGHVXVKRMDVORViUEROHVUHDOL]DQXQLQWHUFDP
ELR JDVHRVR TXH GH GtD FDSWXUD 'Ly[LGR GH &DUER
DHURVROHV\HQODWUDQVPLVLyQHOpFWULFDGHDOWRYROWDMH QR&2\OLEHUDYDSRUGHDJXD\2[tJHQR2\HQ
$IRUWXQDGDPHQWH KR\ HQ GtD JUDFLDV DO 3URWRFROR GH ODQRFKHFDSWXUD2 \OLEHUD&2 (OEDODQFHWRWDOGH
0RQWUHDOKDQVLGRSURKLELGRVDOJXQRVHQXQJUDQQ~
PHURGHSDtVHV6LQHPEDUJRGHELGRDTXHWDPELpQWLH
QHQXQDYLGD~WLOPX\ODUJDVXSUHVHQFLDHQODDWPyVIHUD
DIHFWDUiKDVWDHOFOLPDGHOSUy[LPRPLOHQLR(OFDOHQWD
PLHQWRDWPRVIpULFRTXHJHQHUDQORV*(,GHVHQFDGHQD
HOGHUUHWLPLHQWRGHODVIRUPDFLRQHVGHKLHORHQHOSOD
HVWHLQWHUFDPELRHVODFDSWXUDGH&2\ODOLEHUDFLyQ
GH2\YDSRUGHDJXDORFXDOLPSOLFDTXHORVERV
TXHVDFXPXODQ&DUERQR HQVXVWHMLGRV3URGXFWRGH
ORVFDPELRVDWPRVIpULFRVUHFLHQWHVVHKDHQFRQWUDGR
TXHHQORVERVTXHVDPD]yQLFRVODVGLQiPLFDVVRQPiV
YHORFHVORFXDOVHYHUHIOHMDGRHQXQDPD\RUPRUWD
QHWD]RQDVSRODUHVQHYDGRV\XQFDOHQWDPLHQWRGH OLGDG\XQFUHFLPLHQWRPiVDFHOHUDGR3KLOOLSVHWDO
ORVRFpDQRV\HOGHUUHWLPLHQWRGHORVQHYDGRVOLPLWD (QHOEDODQFHILQDOHOFUHFLPLHQWRH[FHGHOD
HODFFHVRGHODJXDSRWDEOHDXQJUDQQ~PHURGHSHU PRUWDOLGDG OR TXH KDFH GH ORV ERVTXHV DPD]yQLFRV
VRQDVTXHYLYHQHQODVFDGHQDVPRQWDxRVDV$VXYH] XQVXPLGHURGH&DUERQR/HZLVHWDO3KLOOLSVHW
HOLQFUHPHQWRHQODVWHPSHUDWXUDVRFHiQLFDVPRGLILFD DO6HKDHVWLPDGRTXHORVERVTXHVDPD]yQLFRV
ORVSDWURQHVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQHQWRGRHOSODQHWDTXH HVWiQDOPDFHQDQGRFHUFDGH“3HWDJUDPRV
GH&DUERQRDODxR3KLOOLSVHWDO6LQHPEDU

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
JRHOFDPELRGHOXVRGHOVXHORHQOD$PD]RQLDHVWi EUHQPiVIXHU]D\ORVGHVWUR]RVVHDQPD\RUHV'X
PRGLILFDQGRHVWDVFLIUDV$OHOLPLQDUORViUEROHVTXH UDQWHODVpSRFDVVHFDVHQOD$PD]RQLDVHKDXELFDGR
DFXPXODQ&2QRVyORVHLQWHUUXPSHHOSURFHVRGH DOIXHJRFRPRXQRGHORVDJHQWHVPiVLPSRUWDQWHV
ILMDFLyQGH&DUERQRVLQRTXHHO&DUERQRDFXPXODGR HQ OD SpUGLGD GH OD FREHUWXUD QDWXUDO 0DUHQJR HW
VHOLEHUDQXHYDPHQWHDODDWPyVIHUDHQORVSURFHVRVGH DOD/RVHIHFWRVDODUJRSOD]RGHORVLQFHQ
GHVFRPSRVLFLyQRTXHPDGHODPDGHUDTXHHVWDEDHQ GLRV KDQ VLGR SRFR H[SORUDGRV QR VyOR VH KD HQ
SLH3RURWUDSDUWHVHKDGHPRVWUDGRTXHODGHIRUHV FRQWUDGR TXH OD PRUWDOLGDG GH iUEROHV GHVSXpV GH
WDFLyQJHQHUDUHDFFLRQHVHQFDGHQDFRPRHODXPHQWR ORVIXHJRVHVPX\DOWDDIHFWDQGRSULQFLSDOPHQWHODV
GHODLQFLGHQFLDGHLQFHQGLRV$UDJmRHWDO6H FODVHVPHQRUHV\PD\RUHVHQODSREODFLyQGHiUER
HVSHUDTXHORVJUDQGHVFDPELRVHQODFREHUWXUDQDWX OHVVLQRTXHODVHVSHFLHVTXHFUHFHQGHVSXpVGHODV
UDOGHOD$PD]RQLDJHQHUHQXQDPRGLILFDFLyQHQHOFOL TXHPDVVRQGHXQDGHQVLGDGGHODPDGHUDPXFKR
PDORFDO%HWWVHWDOSDUDGDUXQHVWLPDWLYROD PHQRU%DUORZ 3HUHVORFXDOGLVPLQXLUtD
GHIRUHVWDFLyQ\ORVLQFHQGLRVHQOD$PD]RQLDEUDVLOHUD OD WDVD GH DFXPXODFLyQ GH &DUERQR HQ ORV QXHYRV
JHQHUDQDOJRPiVGHOGHODSURGXFFLyQGH*(, ERVTXHVTXHFUHFHQGHVSXpVGHOIXHJR)LQDOPHQWH
GHO%UDVLOTXHVHHQFXHQWUDHQWUHORVSULPHURVSUR VHKDSURSXHVWRTXHORVLQFHQGLRVHODXPHQWRHQOD
GXFWRUHVGH*(,HQHOPXQGR0DUHQJRHWDOD PRUWDOLGDGGHiUEROHV\ODDFWLYLGDGKXPDQDVRQIDF
WRUHVTXHH[DFHUEDUtDQODGLVPLQXFLyQGHODVOOXYLDV
/DFXDOLGDGGHVXPLGHURGH&DUERQRGHORVERVTXHV
DPD]yQLFRVQRVyORVHPRGLILFDSRUHOFDPELRGHOD
FREHUWXUDQDWXUDOWDPELpQVHKDYLVWRPRGLILFDGDSRU
ODV FRQGLFLRQHV FOLPiWLFDV HQ OD UHJLyQ 'XUDQWH HO
VHSUHVHQWyHQOD$PD]RQLDXQDGHODVVHTXtDV
PiVGUiVWLFDVGHORV~OWLPRVDxRV0DUHQJRHWDO
DHVFDODORFDO1HSVWDGHWDOFRQYLUWLpQGRVH
HQXQDFDGHQDGHHYHQWRVTXHVHH[DFHUEDQXQRVD
RWURVVLHPSUHHQGHWULPHQWRGHODFREHUWXUDQDWX
UDOGHOERVTXH
(QPXFKDViUHDVGH$PpULFDGHO6XUODIUHFXHQFLDGH
DEpVWHIHQyPHQRFOLPiWLFRJHQHUyXQDHQRU HYHQWRVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQH[WUHPDKDDXPHQWDGRFRQ
PHPRUWDOLGDGGHiUEROHV\XQHVWDQFDPLHQWRHQVX VLVWHQWHPHQWHFRQHOFDOHQWDPLHQWRGXUDQWHORV~OWL
FUHFLPLHQWR HQ OD FXDO OD $PD]RQLD OLEHUy &DUERQR PRVDxRV&KULVWHQVHQHWDOD6RORPRQHW
HQYH]GHILMDUORHQVXVERVTXHV3KLOOLSVHWDO DO0DUHQJRHWDO3RURWURODGRHQOD
(VWDVLWXDFLyQLPSOLFDJUDYHVFRQVLGHUDFLRQHVVREUHHO UHJLyQDPD]yQLFDVHKDUHJLVWUDGRXQDWHQGHQFLDKDFLD
SDSHOGHVXPLGHURGH&DUERQRGHORVERVTXHVDPD HODXPHQWRHQODWHPSHUDWXUD0DOKL :ULJKW
]yQLFRV \D TXH ODV VHTXtDV HQ OD UHJLyQ DPD]yQLFD /DIUHFXHQFLDGHGtDVIUtRVQRFKHVIUtDV\KHODGDVKD
WLHQGHQD DXPHQWDU /L HW DO 0DUHQJRHW DO GLVPLQXLGRPLHQWUDVTXHORVGtDV\QRFKHVFDOXURVRV\
\PXFKRVGHORVPRGHORVSUHGLFWLYRVSUHVHQWDQ ODVRODVGHFDORUVHKDQYXHOWRPiVIUHFXHQWHV9LQFHQW
FRPRPX\SUREDEOHHVWHGHVRODGRUSDQRUDPD+XQ HWDO&DHVDUHWDO7HEDOGLHWDO
WLQJIRUGHWDO(VWRLPSOLFDUtDTXHDOFRQWUDULR (QFXDQWRDODSUHFLSLWDFLyQHQODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFD
GHDOPDFHQDU&DUERQRHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRSRGUtD ORV FDPELRV QR SUHVHQWDQ XQD WHQGHQFLD WDQ FODUD
FRQYHUWLUVHHQHPLVRUGH&2$OVLPXODUFRQGLFLRQHV PHQWHGLVWLQJXLEOH\HVXQSXQWRPX\GHEDWLGRHQOD
GHVHTXtDVHKDGHPRVWUDGRFyPRODSURGXFFLyQGHO DFWXDOLGDG6HKDUHSRUWDGRTXHODSUHFLSLWDFLyQHQOD
ERVTXHHQWpUPLQRVGHFUHFLPLHQWRGHVFLHQGHSRU UHJLyQHVWiGHWHUPLQDGDSRUOD2VFLODFLyQ0HULGLRQDO
ODIDOWDGHOOXYLDVFRPRWDPELpQLQFLGHHQODPRUWD GH(O1LxR(162HQHO3DFtILFR\SRUODVYDULDFLRQHV
OLGDGGHORViUEROHVORFXDOJHQHUDXQDUHGXFFLyQGH HQODWHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOGHO$WOiQWLFRWURSLFDO/L
ODELRPDVDSRUHQFLPDGHOVXHORGHDSUR[LPDGDPHQWH HWDO0DUHQJRHWDODE*UDQSDUWHGHO
0HJDJUDPRVSRUKHFWiUHD0HJDJUDPR XQPL UpJLPHQGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQHQOD$PD]RQLDVHFDUDFWHUL
OOyQGHJUDPRVHQHOSULPHUDxRGHVHTXtD%UDQGR ]DSRUOOXYLDVHVWDFLRQDOHVGRPLQDGDVSRUPLJUDFLRQHV
HWDO GH´EDQGDVµGHLQWHQVDOOXYLDHQGLUHFFLyQQRUWHVXU
DOLPHQWDGDV SRU YLHQWRV K~PHGRV 0DUHQJR 
&RPRXQHIHFWRFRODWHUDOODVHTXtDSURORQJDGDJH VLQHPEDUJRD~QQRKD\XQFRQVHQVRVREUHORVSDWUR
QHUDFRQGLFLRQHVySWLPDVSDUDTXHORVLQFHQGLRVFR QHVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQHQODUHJLyQ

5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$ 
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2

3RUVXVHIHFWRVGUiVWLFRVORVHYHQWRVGHVHTXtDSUR GDQ VHU LPSOHPHQWDGDV R GHVDUUROODGDV 3DUU\ HW DO

ORQJDGD KDQ WHQLGR HVSHFLDO DWHQFLyQ ORV FXDOHV JH \DTXHH[LVWHQFRQGLFLRQHVORFDOHV\UHJLRQDOHV
QHUDOPHQWHKDQRFXUULGRHQDxRVGH(O1LxR SURSLDVTXHVRQYLWDOHVSDUDSRGHUUHVSRQGHUDODVQH
\\KDQDIHFWDGRSULQFLSDOPHQWHODUH FHVLGDGHVGHDGDSWDFLyQ\PLWLJDFLyQ
JLyQQRURULHQWDOGHOD$PD]RQLD/LHWDO*RRG
HWDO0DUHQJRHWDODE0DUHQJRHWDO /DUHODFLyQHQWUHHODXPHQWRGHODVWHPSHUDWXUDVGHOD
6LQHPEDUJRODVHTXtDGHOTXHREOLJyDO VXSHUILFLHRFHiQLFD\ORVFDPELRVHQODSUHFLSLWDFLyQ
JRELHUQREUDVLOHURDGHFODUDUHOHVWDGRGHHPHUJHQFLD UHJLRQDOQRHVGHOWRGRFODUDHQODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFD
QRIXHSURYRFDGDSRUXQHYHQWRGH(O1LxRVLQRSRUHO /DHYDOXDFLyQGHORVHVFHQDULRVIXWXURVVREUHHOFOLPD
FDOHQWDPLHQWRDQRUPDOGHODVXSHUILFLHGHO$WOiQWLFR SUHVHQWDQXQDDPSOLDGLYHUJHQFLDHQWUHORVUHJLVWURV
QRUWURSLFDO 0DUHQJR HW DO E /D VHTXtD GHO GHODDPSOLWXGGHO(162\ODUHVSXHVWDGHOFOLPDHQ
GHVHQFDGHQyGDxRVLUUHYHUVLEOHVHQORVERVTXHV ODUHJLyQ&KULVWHQVHQHWDOE(QXQDHYDOXD
SRUHMHPSORHOQ~PHURDFXPXODWLYRGHLQFHQGLRVVH FLyQ GH RQFH PRGHORV FOLPiWLFRV SDUD OD $PD]RQLD
LQFUHPHQWyHQXQUHVSHFWRDODPHGLDUHSRUWDGD VH HQFRQWUy TXH FLQFR GH HOORV SUR\HFWDQ XQ LQFUH
HQWUH\0DUHQJRHWDOD\ODVWDVDV PHQWRHQODSUHFLSLWDFLyQDQXDOWUHVSUR\HFWDQXQD
GHPRUWDOLGDGGHORViUEROHVVHHOHYDURQFRQVLGHUDEOH GLVPLQXFLyQHQODSUHFLSLWDFLyQDQXDO\ORVRWURVWUHV
PHQWH3KLOOLSVHWDO SUR\HFWDQFDPELRVPX\SRFRVLJQLILFDWLYRVHQODSUH
FLSLWDFLyQGHOD$PD]RQLD/LHWDO
/$5(92/8&,Ð1'(/2602'(/26
0$7(0É7,&26
(QWHQGHUHOGHVWLQRGHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRHQHOVLJOR
;;,IUHQWHDOLQFUHPHQWRGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGH&2
HQODDWPyVIHUDHOFDPELRGHOXVRGHOVXHORODLQFLGHQ
FLDGHLQFHQGLRV\ODWDODVHOHFWLYDFRQVWLWX\HXQHVIXHU
]RFLHQWtILFRLQWHUQDFLRQDOGHJUDQHQYHUJDGXUD0D\OH
0DUHQJR\FRODERUDGRUHVXVDURQXQPRGHOR
UHJLRQDO SDUD 6XUDPpULFD TXH VH EDVD SULQFLSDOPHQ
WHHQDFRQWHFLPLHQWRVDSHTXHxDHVFDODGHWLHPSR\
SUR\HFWDQTXHORVGtDVFRQJUDQSUHFLSLWDFLyQLQFUH
PHQWDUiQHQOD$PD]RQLDRFFLGHQWDOODUHJLyQQRUWH
GH3HU~\(FXDGRU\ODUHJLyQPiVVXURULHQWDOGH6X
UDPpULFDSRUHOFRQWUDULRSUR\HFWDQXQDWHQGHQFLDD
3RZHU/DFRPSOHMLGDGGHIDFWRUHVTXHDIHF ODVHTXtDVHQHOQRUWHGH6XUDPpULFD\ODUHJLyQPiV
WDQHOFOLPDHQODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFD\ORVHIHFWRVVREUH
ORVERTXHVKDUHTXHULGRGHOXVRGHPRGHORVPDWHPi
WLFRV TXH SHUPLWHQ LQIHULU \ SUHGHFLU ODV YDULDFLRQHV
H[WUHPDVHQHOIXWXURDGLIHUHQWHVHVFDODVGHWLHPSR
/RVPRGHORVPDWHPiWLFRVKDQWHQLGRJUDQGHVDYDQFHV
RULHQWDOGHOD$PD]RQLDQRUGHVWHEUDVLOHUR
3RU RWUR ODGR XQR GH ORV PRGHORV PiV DODUPLVWDV
SUHGLFH HO PDUFKLWDPLHQWR D JUDQ HVFDOD GHO ERVTXH
DPD]yQLFR&R[HWDO%HWWVHWDO
JUDFLDV D ODV FDSDFLGDGHV FRPSXWDFLRQDOHV DOFDQ]DGDV +DUULVHWDOpVWHPRGHORSURSRQHTXH
HQODDFWXDOLGDG0DUHQJRHWDO/DPRGHODFLyQ
QXPpULFD GHO FOLPD GHO JORER WHUUiTXHR \ VX SRVLEOH
UHVSXHVWD DQWH ORV HIHFWRV GH OD DFXPXODFLyQ GH *(,
SHUPLWHSULRUL]DUUHJLRQHVJHRJUiILFDVDFFLRQHVGHPL
WLJDFLyQ\DFFLRQHVGHDGDSWDFLyQKDFLDHOIXWXUR6LQ
HQODVSUy[LPDVGpFDGDVHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRVXIULUi
VHTXtDVPiVLQWHQVDVTXHUHGXQGDUiQHQXQDWUDQV
IRUPDFLyQDJUDQHVFDODGHOERVTXH$OJXQRVDXWRUHV
VXJLHUHQTXHHOERVTXHVHWUDQVIRUPDUiHQXQDHVSH
FLH GH ´VDEDQDµ 2\DPD  1REUH  6DOD]DU HW
HPEDUJRODQHFHVLGDGGHJHQHUDUGHWDOOHVPiVILQRVHQ DO  VLQ HPEDUJR HVWH WpUPLQR KD VLGR PX\
OD VLPXODFLyQ GH OD YDULDELOLGDG FOLPDWROyJLFD VyOR VH FXHVWLRQDGR\HOWpUPLQRGH´PDUFKLWDPLHQWRµUHIOHMD
FRQVLJXHQEDMRHOGHVDUUROORGH0RGHORV5HJLRQDOHVVR PHMRUHOSURFHVRTXHSUHGLFHHOPRGHOR%HWWVHWDO
EUHHO&OLPDTXHWLHQHQHQFXHQWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVORFD
OHVLPSRUWDQWHVFRPRODRURJUDItDODYHJHWDFLyQ\RWUDV
YDULDEOHVLQWHUQDVGHODFRQIRUPDFLyQGHOFOLPDDQLYHO
UHJLRQDO+D\TXHWHQHUHQFXHQWDTXHVLQSUR\HFFLR
QHVUHJLRQDOHVDSURSLDGDVVREUHHOFDPELRGHOFOLPDHV
&R[HWDO$XQTXHHQODUHJLyQDPD]y
QLFDVHSUHVHQWDQYDULDFLRQHVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQLQWHU
QDVVHKDSURSXHVWRTXHODUHGXFFLyQGHODVOOXYLDVQR
HVSURGXFWRGHGLFKDYDULDELOLGDGVLQRSURGXFWRGHOD
LQIOXHQFLDDQWURSRJpQLFDGDGDSRUODDFXPXODFLyQGH
PX\GLVFXWLEOHTXHODVHVWUDWHJLDVGHDGDSWDFLyQSXH *(,/LHWDO

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
(QODUHDFFLyQGHOERVTXHDORVFDPELRVFOLPiWLFRVLQ HVFDOD \ UHFDOFD VREUH OD YXOQHUDELOLGDG GHO ERVTXH
WHUYLHQHQXQDVHULHGHYDULDEOHVTXHPRGLILFDQODVSUH $PD]yQLFR IUHQWH DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR +XQWLQJIRUG
GLFFLRQHVGHORVGLIHUHQWHVPRGHORV(QODE~VTXHGD HWDO
GHXQDYDORUDFLyQPiVUHDOGHODVUHVSXHVWDVGHOERVTXH
DORVFDPELRVFOLPiWLFRV\GHXQPRGHORPiVUREXVWR (VLPSRUWDQWHUHFDOFDUTXHODJUDQPD\RUtDGHPR
+XQWLQJIRUG\FRODERUDGRUHVLQFRUSRUDURQXQ GHORV QR LQFRUSRUDQ OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH ORV FDPELRV
PRGHORGHGHPRJUDItDHFRVLVWpPLFDGHVDUUROODGRSRU FOLPiWLFRV OD GHIRUHVWDFLyQ OD WUDQVIRUPDFLyQ SRU
0RRUFURIW\FRODERUDGRUHVHQGRQGHFRPEL ORVLQFHQGLRVQLODLQIOXHQFLDFUHFLHQWHGHODLQGXV
QDURQ YDULDEOHV HFROyJLFDV D SDUWLU GH GDWRV GH FDP WULDHQODUHJLyQ$OWHQHUHQFXHQWDYDULDEOHVFRPR
SRSURYHQLHQWHVGHODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFDODVYDULDEOHV ODWDVDGHGHIRUHVWDFLyQODWDODVHOHFWLYDGHPDGHUDV
WHQLGDV HQ FXHQWD IXHURQ (O iUHD IROLDU /D WDVD \ODVFRQGLFLRQHVGHHPLVLRQHVGHJDVHVHIHFWRLQYHU
GHPRUWDOLGDGGHORViUEROHV/DGHQVLGDGGHODPDGHUD QDGHURFRPRVHKDQYHQLGRSUHVHQWDQGR1HSVWDG\
GHELGRDTXHQRHQWRGDVODVPDGHUDVVHDFXPXODOD FRODERUDGRUHVVXJLHUHQTXHSDUDHOVH
PLVPDFDQWLGDGGH&DUERQRODYDULDFLyQGHODGHQVL KDEUi SHUGLGR HO  GHO ERVTXH GH OD $PD]RQLD
GDGGHODPDGHUDWHQGUiXQDYDULDFLyQHQODFDQWLGDG OR FXDO VLJQLILFD TXH HQWUH  \  3HWDJUDPRV GH
GH&DUERQRVHFXHVWUDGR/DYLGD~WLOGHODVKRMDV &DUERQR VHUtDQ OLEHUDGRV D OD DWPyVIHUD HQ PHQRV
(OSDWUyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHOFDUERQRDOLQWHULRUGHORViUEROHV GHWUHVGpFDGDV
UDtFHVWURQFRRUDPDV/DHVWUDWLILFDFLyQGHOERVTXH
/DJUDQFRPSOHMLGDGGHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRJHQHUDXQD 2WUDIRUPDGHHQWHQGHU\SUHGHFLUODVUHDFFLRQHVGHO
HVWUXFWXUDYHUWLFDOGDGDSRUODYDULDFLyQHQODDOWXUDGH ERVTXHIUHQWHDORVFDPELRVDWPRVIpULFRVHVHVWXGLDU
ORVGLIHUHQWHViUEROHV/DVKRMDVPiVDOWDV\HQJHQHUDO ODV FRQGLFLRQHV SDVDGDV GHO ERVTXH $O HVWXGLDU ODV
HO HVWUDWR PiV DOWR GHO ERVTXH GRVHO UHFLEHQ OD OX] YDULDFLRQHV HQ HO FOLPD GHO +RORFHQR HQWUH  \
VRODUGLUHFWDPHQWH\DEVRUEHQSDUWHGHHOODGHMDQGR DxRVDQWHVGHOSUHVHQWHODVSUHGLFFLRQHVWLHQ
SDVDUXQDIUDFFLyQGHODOX]OH\GH%HHUODVP~OWLSOHV GHQDYDULDU$SDUWLUGHHYDOXDFLRQHVGHOSROHQDQWL
´FDSDVµ SHUPLWHQ TXH OOHJXH VyOR XQD SHTXHxD IUDF JXR 0D\OH  3RZHU  VXJLHUHQ TXH HO ERVTXH
FLyQGHOX]DORVHVWUDWRVLQIHULRUHVGHOERVTXHVVRWR DPD]yQLFRKDVREUHYLYLGRDFRQGLFLRQHVGHVHTXtD\
ERVTXH(VWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDLQFLGHHQDFXPXODFLyQGHO SHUWXUEDFLRQHV KDFH PLOHV GH DxRV \ WLHQH XQD JUDQ
&DUERQR\DTXHODOX]LQFLGHQWHVREUHFDGDKRMDHVXQ FDSDFLGDGGHUHVSRQGHUDQWHHYHQWRVH[WUHPRVORTXH
IDFWRUGHWHUPLQDQWHSDUDHOSURFHVRGHPHWDEROLVPR FRQWUDGLFHHQFLHUWDPHGLGDODKLSyWHVLVGHOPDUFKLWD
GHO&DUERQR/DGLQiPLFDQDWXUDOGHODYHJHWDFLyQ7H
QLHQGRHQFXHQWDTXHHOERVTXHDPD]yQLFRHVPX\GL
QiPLFRHQGRQGHHOQDFLPLHQWR\ODPXHUWHGHiUEROHV
VRQVXFHVRVFRPXQHVTXHDOWHUDQODHVWUXFWXUDGHOERV
TXHDPD]yQLFRODFDtGDGHXQiUEROFRQIUHFXHQFLDJH
QHUDXQDUHDFFLyQHQFDGHQDGHYDULRVPiVTXHDVXYH]
FUHDQXQDGLVFRQWLQXLGDGHQHOERVTXHFRQRFLGRFRPR
PLHQWRDJUDQHVFDODGHODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFD6LQHP
EDUJRKD\TXHWHQHUHQFXHQWDTXHDGLIHUHQFLDGHODV
FRQGLFLRQHVGHOSDVDGRHQHOSUHVHQWHHOERVTXHVH
HQIUHQWDDGHPiVDXQDFRPELQDFLyQGHVIDYRUDEOHGH
VHTXtDV DOWDV WDVDV GH GHIRUHVWDFLyQ FUHFLHQWH LQFL
GHQFLDGHLQFHQGLRV\ODWDODVHOHFWLYDGHHVSHFLHVHQ
WUHODVPiVLPSRUWDQWHV&RFKUDQH /DXUDQFH
´FODURµ(OPRGHORWRPDHQFXHQWDODUHSUHVHQWDFLyQ 6DZ\HU1HSVWDGHWDO
GH ODV FDtGDV QDWXUDOHV GH iUEROHV DVt FRPR IDFWRUHV
GHPRJUiILFRVFRPRHOWDPDxR\ODHGDGGHORViUEROHV $XQTXHODVVHTXtDVGHOERVTXH$PD]yQLFRQRVRQFR
/RVWLSRVIXQFLRQDOHVGHSODQWDV(QWUHODVSODQWDVWUR PXQHVHQWRGRVORVPRGHORVGHFLUFXODFLyQDWPRVIpUL
SLFDOHVH[LVWHQYDULDFLRQHVILVLROyJLFDVTXHLQFLGHQHQ FDSURSXHVWRVWDOFRPRORHVWDEOHFHHO&XDUWR5HSRUWH
ODFDSWDFLyQGHO&2GHODDWPyVIHUDSODQWDV&& GH(YDOXDFLyQGHO3DQHO,QWHUJXEHUQDPHQWDOGH([SHU
TXHUHSHUFXWHHQYHORFLGDGHVGLIHUHQFLDOHVHQODDFX WRVVREUHHO&DPELR&OLPiWLFR,3&&&KULVWHQVHQHW
PXODFLyQGHO&DUERQR(OFUHFLPLHQWRGHORViUEROHV DODODVSUHGLFFLRQHVPiVDODUPDQWHVGHEHQVHU
WHQLGDV HQ FXHQWD GHELGR D OD LQPHQVD LPSRUWDQFLD
$OLQFRUSRUDUODYDULDFLyQGHHVWRVIDFWRUHVpVWHPR TXHWHQGUtDXQHYHQWXDOPDUFKLWDPLHQWRDJUDQHVFDOD
GHOR SUHGLFH LJXDOPHQWH XQ PDUFKLWDPLHQWR D JUDQ VREUHHOFOLPDGHOSODQHWD+DUULVHWDO

5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$ 
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2
8QR GH ORV SXQWRV PiV UHOHYDQWHV HQ HO GHVDUUROOR
GH OD HODERUDFLyQ GH ORV PRGHORV PDWHPiWLFRV HV OD
UHGXFFLyQGHORVIDFWRUHVGHLQFHUWLGXPEUH'HELGR
DODGLILFXOWDGGHLQFOXLUYDULDEOHVLPSRUWDQWHVFRPR
ODFRPSHWHQFLDHQWUHHVSHFLHVODVSUHGLFFLRQHVGHODV
YDULDFLRQHVGHWHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOGHORVRFpDQRV
HOUHHPSOD]RGHHVSHFLHVHQWUHRWUDVVHJHQHUDFLHUWR
JUDGRGHLQFHUWLGXPEUHHQODVSUHGLFFLRQHVODVFXDOHV
GLILFXOWDQHOHQWHQGLPLHQWR\FXDQWLILFDFLyQGHODVYD
ULDFLRQHVHQODVSUHFLSLWDFLRQHVVREUHHOERVTXHDPD
(VWHKHFKRJHQHUDXQDUHGXFFLyQGHODFDSDFLGDGGH
SUHGHFLUODVYDULDFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVHQODUHJLyQ\SRU
HQGHXQDGLILFXOWDGSDUDHVWDEOHFHUHVWUDWHJLDVGHPL
WLJDFLyQ\DGDSWDFLyQIUHQWHDORVHYHQWXDOHVFDPELRV
/$$0$=21,$&2/20%,$1$<686
5(726
)UHQWHDODVSUR\HFFLRQHVGHOIXWXURGHODUHJLyQ$PD
]yQLFDHQJHQHUDOOD$PD]RQLDFRORPELDQDVHHQFXHQ
]yQLFR+DUULVHWDO WUDHQXQDVLWXDFLyQSULYLOHJLDGD3RUXQODGRODUHJLyQ
QRURFFLGHQWDOGHOD$PD]RQLDSUHVHQWDFRQGLFLRQHV
)LQDOPHQWHXQHOHPHQWRFUXFLDOSDUDODIXWXUDPR FOLPDWROyJLFDVGHDOWDVSUHFLSLWDFLRQHVDQXDOHV\EDMD
GHODFLyQ GHO FOLPD HV OD FDOLGDG \ FDQWLGDG GH GDWRV
FOLPiWLFRVHQOD$PD]RQLDTXHSHUPLWDQDMXVWDU\YD
OLGDUODVSUR\HFFLRQHV\VLPXODFLRQHVUHJLRQDOHV/D
PHQWDEOHPHQWHHQPXFKRVSDtVHVFRPR&RORPELDOD
FDQWLGDG\GLVSRQLELOLGDGGHORVGDWRVFOLPiWLFRVSDUD
HVWDFLRQDOLGDG )LJXUD  ODV FXDOHV JHQHUDQ FLHUWD
HVWDELOLGDGIUHQWHDORVHYHQWRVH[WUHPRVTXHVHKDQ
GHVFULWRSDUDODUHJLyQDGLIHUHQFLDGHOVXURULHQWHGH
ODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFDTXHSUHVHQWDIHQyPHQRVFOLPiWL
FRVPiVHVWDFLRQDOHV
OD UHJLyQ DPD]yQLFD HV PX\ HVFDVD 3RYHGD 

),*85$3520(',2'(/$35(&,3,7$&,Ð1(1/$e32&$0É66(&$720$'2'(0$</( 32:(5

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
),*85$5(6*8$5'26,1'Ì*(1$6<É5($63527(*,'$6)8(17(6,*$&&$572*5$)Ì$2),&,$/'(&2/20%,$,*$&0$3$'(5(6*8$5'26,1'Ì*(1$6'(&2/20%,$1$6$

6750'(06,1&+,/Ì0,7($0$=21,$&2/20%,$1$8$(63116311&225'(1$'$6*(2*5É),&$6'$780:*6

3RURWURODGRHQ&RORPELDHODYDQFHGHFDUUHWHUDVOD /RV WUDEDMRV GH 6RDUHV \ FRODERUDGRUHV  \ GH

LPSOHPHQWDFLyQGHLQGXVWULDVPDGHUHUDVDJUDQHVFD 1HSVWDG\FRODERUDGRUHVSUR\HFWDQTXH&R
OD OD JDQDGHUtD H[WHQVLYD \ ORV PDFURFXOWLYRV FRPR ORPELD SUHVHQWDUi XQD EXHQD FREHUWXUD GH ERVTXH
ODVR\DHVWiQFRQFHQWUDGRVSULQFLSDOPHQWHHQODVUH DPD]yQLFRHQHODxR)LJXUD6LQHPEDUJR
JLRQHV GH )ORUHQFLD \ 6DQ -RVp GH *XDYLDUH OR TXH HVWHSULYLOHJLRHVXQDLQPHQVDUHVSRQVDELOLGDG\DTXH
SHUPLWHTXHD~QH[LVWDQH[WHQVDViUHDVFRQFREHUWXUD SRVHHPRV VHJ~Q ODV SUHGLFFLRQHV XQR GH ORV SR
QDWXUDOHQHOUHVWRGHOD$PD]RQLDFRORPELDQD$GH FRV ERVTXHV TXH TXHGDUiQ HQ HO SODQHWD HQ HO IXWX
PiVH[LVWHXQVLVWHPDGHiUHDVSURWHJLGDVLPSRUWDQWH URSUy[LPRDxRV'HOEXHQPDQHMRTXHVH
\ XQ Q~PHUR FRQVLGHUDEOH GH UHVJXDUGRV LQGtJHQDV OHGpDHVWDVH[WHQVLRQHVGHERVTXHVGHSHQGHUiTXH
TXHDVHJXUDQHQXQDDOWDSURSRUFLyQODSURWHFFLyQ WHQJDPRVDQWHQRVRWURVXQRGHORVSRFRVUHIXJLRVGH
GHDOUHGHGRUGHOPLOORQHVGHKHFWiUHDVGHOERVTXH ELRGLYHUVLGDGGHODVSUy[LPDVGpFDGDV6LWHQHPRVHQ
DPD]yQLFR)LJXUD FXHQWDTXHODVHVWUDWHJLDVGHFRQVHUYDFLyQDJUDQHV

5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$ 
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2

%RVTXH 6LQERVTXH %RVTXHVHFRFRQGLFLRQHVQRUPDOHV %RVTXHVHFRUHGXFFLyQGH

OOXYLDV
%RVTXHGHIRUHVWDGR %RVTXHFRQH[WUDFFLyQGHPDGHUD %RVTXHVHFRFRQH[WUDFFLyQGHPDGHUD

),*85$35(',&&,Ð1'(/$&2%(5785$'(/$$0$=21,$$/&20%,1$1'2$80(172'(*(,(1/$$70Ð6)(5$<'()25(67$&,Ð1720$'2'(1(367$'<&2/$%25$'25(6

),*85$Ì1',&('(&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2720$'2'(%$(77,*(7$/

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
FDODD\XGDQDPLWLJDUHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR.LOOHHQ  PiVSRQGHUHODSHUVSHFWLYDGHTXLHQHVKDQKDELWDGR
6ROyU]DQRVHUHTXLHUHDPSOLDUODViUHDVSURWH HOERVTXHSRUPLOHVGHDxRVORVTXHDSRUWDUiQPHQRV
JLGDVHQUHJLRQHVHVWUDWpJLFDVGHOD$PD]RQLDFRORP DOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\TXLHQHVVXIULUiQFRQPiVLQFOH
ELDQD PHQFLDVXVGHVDIRUWXQDGRVHIHFWRV

&RPRVHKDH[SXHVWRODPD\RUtDGHORVPRGHORVLQ /DVSUHGLFFLRQHV´IDYRUDEOHVµSDUDDPSOLDV]RQDVGH
GLFDQ TXH OD VXVFHSWLELOLGDG GH ORV ERVTXHV DPD]y OD$PD]RQLDFRORPELDQDORVRQHQUHODFLyQFRQRWUDV
QLFRV IUHQWH DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR HV DOWD $XQTXH VH UHJLRQHVDPD]yQLFDVHQGRQGHVHSUHGLFHQFDPELRV
HVWLPDTXHODUHJLyQQRURFFLGHQWDO&RORPELDWHQ HQ OD SUHFLSLWDFLyQ PX\ GUiVWLFRV \ HQ GRQGH ORV
GUiPD\RUHVWDELOLGDGHOÌQGLFHGH&DPELR&OLPiWLFR SURFHVRVGHWUDQVIRUPDFLyQGHODFREHUWXUDQDWXUDO
GHVDUUROODGR SRU %DHWWLJ \ FRODERUDGRUHV  DO VRQDJUDQHVFDOD(VWRQRTXLHUHGHFLUTXHODUHJLyQ
SRQGHUDU QXHYH LQGLFDGRUHV FOLPiWLFRV HYHQWRV H[ DPD]yQLFD FRORPELDQD QR VH YHUi DIHFWDGD SRU ORV
WUHPRVGHWHPSHUDWXUD\SUHFLSLWDFLyQSUHVHQWDDOD FDPELRVHQHOFOLPDVLQRTXHVHSUHGLFHTXHVHUiQ
$PD]RQLD FRORPELDQD FRPR XQD GH ODV UHJLRQHV HQ PHQRUHV )LQDOPHQWH KD\ TXH WHQHU HQ FXHQWD TXH
GRQGH HO &DPELR &OLPiWLFR SRGUtD VHU PiV LQWHQVR OD DXVHQFLD GH SUR\HFFLRQHV UREXVWDV D QLYHO UHJLR
FRQHYHQWRVGUiVWLFRVHQODSUHFLSLWDFLyQ\ODWHPSH QDOJHQHUDTXHODVDFFLRQHVOOHJXHQGHVSXpVGHTXH
UDWXUD)LJXUD RFXUUDDOJ~QHYHQWRGHVDVWURVR\SRUHOORHVLPSRU
WDQWHDXQDUHVIXHU]RVDHVFDODUHJLRQDOSDUDJHQHUDU
3DUD&RORPELDODGHIRUHVWDFLyQHYLWDGD&DQR
HV XQD RSFLyQ TXH GHEH VHU FRQVLGHUDGD VHULDPHQWH
HQODUHJLyQDPD]yQLFD\DTXHODGHIRUHVWDFLyQDJUDQ
HVFDODHVWiUHVWULQJLGDD]RQDVSXQWXDOHV\VHUHTXLHUH
GHRWUDVHVWUDWHJLDVJOREDOHVTXHDVHJXUHQODFRQVHU
YDFLyQGHODVJUDQGHVH[WHQVLRQHVGHERVTXHQDWXUDO
TXHFRQVHUYDHOSDtV3RURWURODGRVHUHTXLHUHHVWD
EOHFHUHVWUDWHJLDVGHGHVDUUROORTXHWHQJDQXQDYLVLyQ
D ODUJR SOD]R GRQGH VH FRQVLGHUH DO FDPELR JOREDO
HVWUDWHJLDVGHPLWLJDFLyQGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRHQOD
$PD]RQLDFRORPELDQD
$*5$'(&,0,(1726
$ 2VFDU /DYHUGH \ 'DLURQ &iUGHQDV SRU OD OHFWXUD
FUtWLFDGHOPDQXVFULWRD6RQLD6XDSRUODHODERUDFLyQ
GHORVPDSDVD1HOVRQ6DOLQDVSRUHODSR\RHQODDG
TXLVLFLyQGHODOLWHUDWXUDD'DLURQ&iUGHQDV0LVDHO
3RYHGDFRPRHOHMHSULQFLSDOSDUDODWRPDGH 5RGUtJXH]2VFDU/DYHUGH\3DROD-LPpQH]SRUPRWL
GHFLVLRQHVSROtWLFDVHFRQyPLFDV\VRFLDOHV\TXHDGH YDUHVWHPDQXVFULWR

=RQDGHIRUHVWDGD3XWXPD\R-DLPH1DYDUUR

5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$ 
/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2
%,%/,2*5$)Ì$
$OYHV'67DNLQJWKLQJVSXEOLFDFRQWULEXWLRQWRDGGUHVV
KXPDQGLPHQVLRQVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOFKDQJH3KLO7UDQV
56RF%
$UDJmR/(2&<0DOKL1%DUELHU$/LPD<6KLPDEXNX
UR/$QGHUVRQ 66DDWFKL,QWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ
$5LQNH$6DUUDQG3:KHWWRQD5HJLRQDO&OLPDWH
3URMHFWLRQV,Q&OLPDWH&KDQJH7KH3K\VLFDO6FLHQ
FH%DVLV&RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXS,WRWKH)RXUWK
$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRIWKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OL
PDWH&KDQJH6RORPRQ6'4LQ00DQQLQJ=&KHQ
UDLQIDOOGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGILUHVGXULQJUHFHQW\HDUVLQWKH
%UD]LOLDQ$PD]RQLD3KLO7UDQV56RF%
%DHWWLJ0%0:LOG '0,PERGHQ$FOLPDWHFKDQ
JH LQGH[ :KHUH FOLPDWH FKDQJH PD\ EH PRVW SURPL
QHQW LQ WKH VW FHQWXU\ *HRSK 5HV /HW  /
GRL*/
%DUORZ- &$3HUHV)LUHPHGLDWHGGLHEDFNDQGFRP
SRVLWLRQDOFDVFDGHLQDQ$PD]RQLDQIRUHVW3KLO7UDQV5
6RF%
00DUTXLV.%$YHU\W07LJQRUDQG+/0LOOHUHGV
&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH8QLWHG.LQJGRP
DQG1HZ<RUN1<86$
&KULVWHQVHQ-+75&DUWHU05XPPXNDLQHQ*$PDQDWLGLV
E(YDOXDWLQJWKH3HUIRUPDQFHDQG8WLOLW\RI5HJLRQDO
&OLPDWH0RGHOVWKH358'(1&(3URMHFW&OLPDWLF&KDQ
JH²
&RFKUDQH0$ :)/DXUDQFH6\QHUJLVPVDPRQJ)LUH
/DQG 8VH DQG &OLPDWH &KDQJH LQ WKH $PD]RQ $PELR
%HWWV5$30&R[ 0&ROOLQV7KHUROHRIHFRV\V
WHP²DWPRVSKHUH LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ VLPXODWHG $PD]RQLDQ
SUHFLSLWDWLRQGHFUHDVHDQGIRUHVWGLHEDFNXQGHUJOREDOFOL
PDWHZDUPLQJ7KHRU$SSO&OLPDWRO
%HWWV506DQGHUVRQ 6:RRGZDUG(IIHFWVRIODUJH
VFDOH$PD]RQIRUHVWGHJUDGDWLRQRQFOLPDWHDQGDLUTXDOLW\
WKURXJK IOX[HV RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH ZDWHU HQHUJ\ PLQHUDO
GXVWDQGLVRSUHQH3KLO7UDQV56RF%
%R\G (  1DYLJDWLQJ $PD]RQLD XQGHU XQFHUWDLQW\ SDVW
SUHVHQWDQGIXWXUHHQYLURQPHQWDOJRYHUQDQFH3KLO7UDQV
56RF%
%UDQGR30'&1HSVWDG($'DYLGVRQ6(7UXPERUH'
5D\  3 &DPDUJR  'URXJKW HIIHFWV RQ OLWWHU IDOO
ZRRGSURGXFWLRQDQGEHORZJURXQGFDUERQF\FOLQJLQDQ
$PD]RQIRUHVWUHVXOWVRIDWKURXJKIDOOUHGXFWLRQH[SHUL
PHQW3KLO7UDQV56RF%
%URQGL]LR(6 ()0RUDQ+XPDQGLPHQVLRQVRIFOLPD
WHFKDQJHWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\RIVPDOOIDUPHUVLQWKH$PD
]RQ3KLO7UDQV56RF%
&DHVDU - / $OH[DQGHU 5 9RVH  /DUJHVFDOH FKDQJHV LQ
REVHUYHG GDLO\ PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP WHPSHUDWX
UHV FUHDWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV RI D QHZ JULGGHG GDWD VHW -R
XUQDO RI *HRSK\VLFDO 5HVHDUFK  ' '2,
-'
&DQDGHOO-*&/H4XpUp055DXSDFK&%)LHOG(7%XL
WHQKXLV3&LDLV7-&RQZD\13*LOOHWW5$+RXJKWRQ
*0DUODQG&RQWULEXWLRQVWRDFFHOHUDWLQJDWPRV
SKHULF&2JURZWKIURPHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\FDUERQLQWHQ
VLW\DQGHIILFLHQF\RIQDWXUDOVLQNV3URF1DWO$FDG6FL

&DQR&*/DHFRQRPtDGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\ODRSFLyQ

&R[305$%HWWV&'-RQHV6$6SDOO ,-7RWWHU
GHOO$FFHOHUDWLRQRIJOREDOZDUPLQJGXHWRFDUERQ
F\FOHIHHGEDFNVLQDFRXSOHGFOLPDWHPRGHO1DWXUH
²
&R[ 30 33 +DUULV & +XQWLQJIRUG 5$ %HWWV 0 &ROOLQV
&'-RQHV7(-XSS-$0DUHQJR &$1REUH
,QFUHDVLQJ ULVN RI $PD]RQLDQ GURXJKW GXH WR GHFUHDVLQJ
DHURVROSROOXWLRQ1DWXUH
*RRG 3 -$ /RZH 0 &ROOLQV  : 0RXIRXPD2NLD 
$QREMHFWLYHWURSLFDO$WODQWLFVHDVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHJUD
GLHQW LQGH[ IRU VWXGLHV RI VRXWK $PD]RQ GU\VHDVRQ FOL
PDWH YDULDELOLW\ DQG FKDQJH 3KLO 7UDQV 5 6RF % 

(EHOLQJ- 0<DVXp*HQHUDWLQJFDUERQILQDQFHWKURXJK
DYRLGHG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG LWV SRWHQWLDO WR FUHDWH FOLPD
WLFFRQVHUYDWLRQDQGKXPDQGHYHORSPHQWEHQHILWV3KLO
7UDQV56RF%
+DUULV 33 & +XQWLQJIRUG  30 &R[  $PD]RQ %DVLQ
FOLPDWHXQGHUJOREDOZDUPLQJWKHUROHRIWKHVHDVXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUH3KLO7UDQV56RF%
+XQWLQJIRUG&5$)LVKHU/0HUFDGR%%%%RRWK66LWFK
33 +DUULV 30 &R[ &' -RQHV  5$ %HWWV < 0DOKL
*5+DUULV0&ROOLQV 30RRUFURIW7RZDUGV
TXDQWLI\LQJ XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ SUHGLFWLRQV RI $PD]RQ ¶GLH
EDFN·3KLO7UDQV56RF%
+RHJK*XOGEHUJ23-0XPE\$-+RRWHQ566WHQHFN
3*UHHQILHOG(*RPH]&'+DUYHOO3)6DOH$-(G
ZDUGV.&DOGHLUD1.QRZOWRQ&0(DNLQ5,JOHVLDV
3ULHWR 1 0XWKLJD 5 + %UDGEXU\ $ 'XEL 0 ( +D
W]LRORV&RUDO5HHIV8QGHU5DSLG&OLPDWH&KDQJHDQG
$PD]yQLFD5HYLVWD&RORPELD$PD]yQLFD 2FHDQ$FLGLILFDWLRQ6FLHQFH9RO²
&KULVWHQVHQ -+ % +HZLWVRQ $ %XVXLRF $ &KHQ ; *DR .LOOHHQ7- /$6ROyU]DQR&RQVHUYDWLRQVWUDWHJLHVWR
,+HOG5-RQHV5..ROOL:7.ZRQ5/DSULVH9 PLWLJDWHLPSDFWVIURPFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQ$PD]RQLD3KLO
0DJDxD5XHGD/0HDUQV&*0HQpQGH]-5lLVlQHQ 7UDQV56RF%

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
/HZLV6/2/3KLOOLSV75%DNHU-/OR\G<0DOKL6$OPHL 2\DPD0' &$1REUH$QHZFOLPDWHYHJHWDWLRQ
GD1+LJXFKL:)/DXUDQFH'$1HLOO-106LOYD- HTXLOLEULXP VWDWH IRU 7URSLFDO 6RXWK $PHULFD *HRSK\V
7HUERUJK$7RUUHV59iVTXH]6%URZQ-&KDYH& 5HV/HWWGRL*/
.XHEOHU31~xH] %9LQFHWL&RQFHUWHGFKDQJHV 3DUU\ 0/ 2) &DQ]LDQL -3 3DOXWLNRI 3- YDQ GHU /LQGHQ
LQWURSLFDOIRUHVWVWUXFWXUHDQGG\QDPLFVHYLGHQFHIURP
6RXWK$PHULFDQORQJWHUPSORWV3KLO7UDQV56RF
%²
/L:5)X5('LFNLQVRQ5DLQIDOODQGLWVVHDVRQDOLW\
RYHU WKH $PD]RQ LQ WKH VW FHQWXU\ DV DVVHVVHG E\ WKH
FRXSOHGPRGHOVIRUWKH,3&&$5-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO
5HVHDUFK''2,-'
/L : 5 )X 5, 1HJUyQ-XiUH]  . )HUQDQGHV  2E
VHUYHGFKDQJHRIWKHVWDQGDUGL]HGSUHFLSLWDWLRQLQGH[LWV
SRWHQWLDOFDXVHDQGLPSOLFDWLRQVWRIXWXUHFOLPDWHFKDQJH
LQWKH$PD]RQUHJLRQ3KLO7UDQV56RF%

0DOKL< 3KLOOLSV2/7URSLFDOIRUHVWVDQGJOREDODW
PRVSKHULF FKDQJH D V\QWKHVLV 3KLO 7UDQV 5 6RF %
²
0DOKL< -:ULJKW6SDWLDOSDWWHUQVDQGUHFHQWWUHQGV
LQWKHFOLPDWHRIWURSLFDOUDLQIRUHVWUHJLRQV3KLO7UDQV5
6RF/RQG%
0DUHQJR - $  ,QWHUGHFDGDO YDULDELOLW\ DQG WUHQGV RI UD
LQIDOODFURVVWKH$PD]RQEDVLQ7KHRUHW$SSO&OLPDWRO
²
0DUHQJR -$ &$1REUH - 7RPDVHOOD 0) &DUGRVR  0'
2\DPD D +\GURFOLPDWLF DQG HFRORJLFDO EHKDYLRXU
RIWKHGURXJKWRI$PD]RQLDLQ3KLO7UDQV56RF%

0DUHQJR-$&$1REUH-7RPDVHOOD0'2\DPD*6GH
DQG &( +DQVRQ HGV  &OLPDWH &KDQJH 
,PSDFWV $GDSWDWLRQ DQG 9XOQHUDELOLW\ &RQWULEXWLRQ RI
:RUNLQJ*URXS,,WRWKH)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRIWKH
,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH&DPEULGJH
8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH8.
3KLOOLSV2/6//HZLV75%DNHU.-&KDR 1+LJXFKL
7KHFKDQJLQJ$PD]RQIRUHVW3KLO7UDQV56RF%

3KLOOLSV2//($UDJmR6//HZLV-%)LVKHU-/OR\G*
/ySH]*RQ]iOH] < 0DOKL $ 0RQWHDJXGR - 3HDFRFN
&$4XHVDGD*9DQGHU+HLMGHQ6$OPHLGD,$PDUDO
/$UUR\R*$\PDUG75%DNHU2%iQNL/%ODQF'
%RQDO3%UDQGR-&KDYH$&$OYHVGH2OLYHLUD1'
&DUGR]R&,&]LPF]LN75)HOGSDXVFK0$)UHLWDV(
*ORRU1+LJXFKL(-LPpQH]*/OR\G30HLU&0HQ
GR]D$0RUHO'$1HLOO'1HSVWDG63DWLxR0&
3HxXHOD $ 3ULHWR ) 5DPtUH] 0 6FKZDU] - 6LOYD 0
6LOYHLUD$67KRPDV+WHU6WHHJH-6WURSS59iVTXH]
3=HOD]RZVNL($OYDUH]6$QGHOPDQ$$QGUDGH.-
&KDR7(UZLQ$'L)LRUH(+RQRULR+.HHOLQJ7-
.LOOHHQ:)/DXUDQFH$3HxD1&$3LWPDQ31~xH]
+5DPtUH]$QJXOR$5XGDV56DODPmR16LOYD-7HU
ERUJK$7RUUHV/H]DPD'URXJKW6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH
$PD]RQ5DLQIRUHVW6FLHQFH
3180$27&$  3HUVSHFWLYDV GHO PHGLR DPELHQWH HQ OD
$PD]RQLD²*HR$PD]RQtD3URJUDPDGHODV1DFLRQHV8QL
2OLYHLUD 5 GH 2OLYHLUD + &DPDUJR /0 $OYHV  ,) GDVSDUDHO0HGLR$PELHQWH3180$2UJDQL]DFLyQGHO
%URZQE7KHGURXJKWRI$PD]RQLDLQ-&OLP 7UDWDGRGH&RRSHUDFLyQ$PD]yQLFD27&$\HO&HQWUR
²
0DUHQJR - $ 5 -RQHV / $OYHV 0 9DOYHUGH  )XWX
UH FKDQJH RI WHPSHUDWXUH DQG SUHFLSLWDWLRQ H[WUHPHV LQ
6RXWK$PHULFDDVGHULYHGIURPWKH35(&,6UHJLRQDOFOL
PDWHPRGHOLQJV\VWHP,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI&OLPDWR
GH ,QYHVWLJDFLyQ GH OD 8QLYHUVLGDG GHO 3DFtILFR &,83
/LPD
3RYHGD*,PSDFWRVGHOFDPELRJOREDO\ODQHFHVLGDGGH
XQD(FR(FRQRPtD(FRQRPtD&RORPELDQD
5LFKDUGVRQ.:6WHIIHQ+-6FKHOOQKXEHU-$OFDPR7%DU
ORJ\,QSUHVV
0D\OH )(  0- 3RZHU  ,PSDFW RI D GULHU (DUO\0LG
+RORFHQHFOLPDWHXSRQ$PD]RQLDQIRUHVW3KLO7UDQV5
6RF%
0RRUFURIW35+XUWW*& 3DFDOD6:$PHWKRGIRU
VFDOLQJ YHJHWDWLRQ G\QDPLFV WKH HFRV\VWHP GHPRJUDSK\
NHU'0.DPPHQ5/HHPDQV'/LYHUPDQ00XQD
VLQJKH%2VPDQ(ODVKD16WHUQ2: YHU6\Q
WKHVLV5HSRUW&OLPDWH&KDQJH*OREDO5LVNV&KDOOHQJHV 
'HFLVLRQV,QWHUQDWLRQDO$OOLDQFHRI5HVHDUFK8QLYHUVLWLHV
&RSHQKDJHQ
6DOD]DU / ) & $ 1REUH  0 ' 2\DPD  &OLPDWH
PRGHO('(FRO0RQRJU²
0F0LFKDHO$-5:RRGUXII 6+DOHV&OLPDWHFKDQJH
DQG KXPDQ KHDOWK SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH ULVNV 7KH /DQFHW

1HSVWDG'&&06WLFNOHU%6RDUHV )0HUU\,Q
WHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ $PD]RQ ODQG XVH IRUHVWV DQG FOLPDWH
SURVSHFWVIRUDQHDUWHUPIRUHVWWLSSLQJSRLQW3KLO7UDQV
56RF%
5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$
FKDQJH FRQVHTXHQFHV RQ WKH ELRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WUR
SLFDO 6RXWK $PHULFD *HRSK\V 5HV /HWW  /
GRL*/
6DZ\HU'&OLPDWHFKDQJHELRIXHOVDQGHFRVRFLDOLPSDFWV
LQWKH%UD]LOLDQ$PD]RQDQG&HUUDGR3KLO7UDQV56RF
%
6RDUHV)%6'&1HSVWDG/0&XUUDQ*&&HUTXHLUD5$
*DUFLD&$5DPRV(9ROO$0F'RQDOG3/HIHEYUH 3

/$$0$=21Ì$)5(17($/&$0%,2&/,0É7,&2

6FKOHVLQJHU0RGHOOLQJFRQVHUYDWLRQLQWKH$PD]RQ 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH5HLQR8QLGR\1XHYD<RUN
EDVLQ1DWXUH
6RORPRQ6'4LQ00DQQLQJ5%$OOH\7%HUQWVHQ1/
%LQGRII=&KHQ$&KLGWKDLVRQJ-0*UHJRU\*&+H
JHUO0+HLPDQQ%+HZLWVRQ%-+RVNLQV)-RRV-
-RX]HO9.DWWVRY8/RKPDQQ70DWVXQR00ROLQD1
1LFKROOV-2YHUSHFN*5DJD95DPDVZDP\-5HQ0
5XVWLFXFFL56RPHUYLOOH7)6WRFNHU3:KHWWRQ5$
:RRGDQG':UDWW5HVXPHQ7pFQLFR(Q&DP
ELRV&OLPiWLFRV%DVH)tVLFDGHOD&LHQFLD$SRUWHV
GHO*UXSRGH7UDEDMR,DO&XDUWR,QIRUPHGH(YDOXDFLyQ
GHO3DQHO,QWHUJXEHUQDPHQWDOVREUH&DPELRV&OLPiWLFRV
6RORPRQ6'4LQ00DQQLQJ=&KHQ00DUTXLV
1<(VWDGRV8QLGRV
7HEDOGL&.+D\KRH-$UEODVWHU*0HHKO*RLQJWRWKH
H[WUHPHVDQLQWHUFRPSDULVRQRIPRGHOVLPXODWHGKLVWRUL
FDODQGIXWXUHFKDQJHVLQH[WUHPHHYHQWV&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
²
9LQFHQW/$7&3HWHUVRQ95%DUURV0%0DULQR05XV
WLFXFFL * &DUUDVFR ( 5DPLUH] /0 $OYHV 7 $PEUL
]]L0$%HUODWR$0*ULPP-$0DUHQJR/0ROLRQ
')0RQFXQLOO(5HEHOOR<07$QXQFLDomR-4XLQWD
QD-/6DQWRV-%DH]*&RURQHO-*DUFLD,7UHEHMR
0 %LGHJDLQ 05 +D\ORFN ' .DURO\  2EVHUYHG
WUHQGVLQLQGLFHVRIGDLO\WHPSHUDWXUHH[WUHPHVLQ6RXWK
.%$YHU\W07LJQRUDQG+/0LOOHUHGV&DPEULGJH $PHULFD²-RXUQDORI&OLPDWH²

 5(9,67$&2/20%,$$0$=Ð1,&$