Warasinee Apirakdacharhai ID: 5080048 Scientific Research & presentation HW 6 2. Bayes' rule is to test if the hypothesis is true.

A decisive evidence is an evidence that either strongly supports or strongly refutes a hypothesis. Decisive evidence is to find the probability of rare case and common case. When experimenting the hypothesis in order to use decisive evidence, we need to plan to use 2 sample size which are large with rare case and small with common case. 3. H = Hypothesis that he is infected. E = Evidence which is that the test says that he is infected. P(H) = probability that he is infected, without seeing any test = 1/100 P(notH) = probability that he is not infected = 99/100 P(E|H) = probability that the test says he is infected when he is actually infected = 99% = 0.99 P(E|notH) = probability that the test says he is infected when he is actually healthy = 1% = 0.01 P(E) = probability that the tests says he is infected. = P(E|H)P(H) + P(E|notH)P(notH) = (0.99) 1/100 + (0.01) 99/100 = 0.0198 P(H|E) = probability that he is infected when the test says he is infected = P(E|H)P(H)/P(E) = [(0.99) 1/100] / (0.0198) = 0.5 = 50% 3.1 Mr. A is actually infected with HIV virus = 50% 3.2 Mr. A is not actually infected with HIV virus = 50% 3.3 If you are the doctor, what would you do? Test with another device or method. Ask for his background and observe for future events. Give him knowledge about how to handle this disease. 3.4 Is the test a good test? Why? It is not a very good test. Even though the test said that a person is infected, you cannot be sure. It is still 50/50 chance of the person to be infected. It is not very reliable however it cannot a bad test.

4. Even though the resin model can tell you about the distance of the gun when it was fired and what kind of gun the murderer use, the model cannot really tell whether it is a murder or suicide unless the murder must has shoot the victim from the distance, in case of murder. To tell murder from suicide, it is better to look at the whole picture, such as where the body/ gun lie and the gunpowder. We cannot use the model because we need to see if the gunpowder is found near the wound and on the hand of the victim to see if it is suicide. However, it is easy for murderer to make it look like a suicide. And the probability or chance that we shoot at the resin model at the same spot and distance in the experiment is very low. So model alone will not help to differentiate murder from suicide.