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June 1, 2011
U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 06/01/11 05/25/11 06/02/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 18.50 14.36 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.18 14.09 00.00 9.65 WMP 11.64 12.23
Short Grain June 1 18.18 14.09 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 12.96 9.89 - 7.01 Difference (5.41) (5.73)
OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $495.00 5% $460.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $475.00 5% N/A 5% $500.00 $515.00 $515.00
10% $470.00 10% $455.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $505.00 $505.00
15% $465.00 15% $445.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $455.00 25% $430.00 25% N/A 25% $455.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $550.00 $500.00
Brokens $410.00 Brokens $405.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $535.00 Brokens
Parb. 100B sorted $495.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens no quote $410.00
Thai Hom Mali $930.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati Paddy
Frag. Brokens $470.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1300.00 $290.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.
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U.S. Paddy Market Report California - The market heated up last week with the Japan and
Korea tender announcements. Calrose paddy was bid at $14.50 per
Texas - No change. The market is still mostly quiet. Buyers’ ideas cwt over loan with offers $1 higher. This week bids are back to $13.00
for L/G are $5.75-$6.75 per cwt over loan depending on variety. The per cwt over loan, with sellers asking if the $14.50 is still there.
drought in Texas continues.
Louisiana - Long grain bids for old crop are unchanged at $11.50 per
cwt FOB farm. New crop is bid slightly higher at $11.75.
Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
Mid South - The rain has finally stopped and there is a little planting Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
taking place but one has to wonder if it will be too little, too late. At Long grain $12.25-13.25 $11.50 $10.50b/11.11a *
this point, we are projecting Arkansas acreage to be about 1.1 million
Med Grain * 14.50 new crop $17.25 $20.50
acres. The cash market is mostly quiet. Bids are around $11.50 per
cwt loaded barge with offers at 50 cents to a dollar higher. L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
* - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.
U.S. Report
account a squeeze on short covering of both brokens and Parboiled.
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES
The market remains extremely quiet, with prices relatively
steady. Even though offshore demand is thin, strong futures CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE “MED”
prices continue to send mixed messages to the cash market, which There was a bit of excitement in the market
inspires growers to hold for higher prices. And, concerns over the early last week when both Korea and Japan floated
effect of recent flooding in the Mississippi Delta on planted acreage, tenders. Paddy bids jumped from $13.50 to $14.50
has lent psychological support for the market. Unfortunately, this per cwt. over loan with growers expectations about
has not been realized in the form of fresh business. $1.00 higher. However, when the Japanese results
Offers were submitted over the weekend to Iraq, but we were in, namely a price that reflects around $13 over,
anticipate Thai rice will likely prevail once again. Although the bids were withdrawn. There was only one U.S.
very little market share has been lost in Haiti, the unnavigable cargo of 13,000 mt sold at somewhere around $785-800 per
Mississippi river has delayed some shipments. The latest status mt on a FAS basis, well below any of the 2010 sales. To say the
of the river is that barges are moving down river, but amid a lot of least, the hysteria short lived last week is now gone.
pent up traffic and well behind normal steaming time...slow but In the meantime, Australia also sold 12,000 mt.
steady improvement of conditions. This is the 1st Japanese MA tender for the 2011
Our best guesstimate is that acreage will be down in Arkansas campaign.
from 1.7 million acres in 2010 to 1.1 planted this year. Since it is unclear as to where to call the quoted market,
For nominal purposes, we are quoting #2-4% at $520-530 per we are leaving our prices unchanged this week...i.e. $875 CY
mt bagged FOB or around $500-510 basis bulk, but biddable. Oakland.
The overall undertone of the market feels soft to me, aside from No change is the Australian new crop production of 800,000
the side issues related to futures and the lost acreage. Simply put, MT. Of particular note: The share holders voted down the
it just is not translating into fresh demand. proposal from Ebro Puleva to take over. No word yet about
Our revised Mercosur crop: any new proposals.
1- Brazil -- 13.5 MMT As regards the Mediterranean, another shipment to Libya is
2- Argentina -- 1.7 MMT being milled and shipped in June, as are shipments elsewhere
3- Uruguay -- 1.65 MMT in the region.
Of particular note is the firmness in the Brazilian market The global outlook on M/G remains positive.
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com
Rice Planted - Selected States -- Week Ending Rice Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending
May 29, May 22, May 29, 2006- 2010 May 29, May 22, May 29, 2006- 2010
State State
2010 2011 2011 Avg. 2010 2011 2011 Avg.
Arkansas 99 84 93 96 Arkansas 97 63 81 90
California 89 75 90 87 California 36 15 40 54
Louisiana 100 99 100 99 Louisiana 99 98 99 98
Mississippi 99 94 99 97 Mississippi 94 84 94 92
Missouri 100 53 88 97 Missouri 100 32 57 90
Texas 100 98 99 99 Texas 92 81 82 95
6 States 98 84 94 95 6 States 88 61 77 86
Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (very limited supply in the South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $120 $135 $135 $150-$155
Mill Feed: $50 $60 $60 -
Ground Hulls: $5 $5-$7 $15 -
Unground Hulls: $5 $5-$7 $12 $3-$5
Creed Rice Co. Inc. 800 Wilcrest Suite 200 Houston, Texas 77042 USA
Ph 1.713.782.3260 Fax 1.713.782.4671 www.creedrice.com email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
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