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RAYMOND JAMES
Published by Raymond James Ltd
The global agriculture (“Ag”) complex has embarked on a prolonged journey of fundamental change, in our view, grappling with
immense, often competing, secular forces that portend long-term structural imbalances in the world’s food supply chain.
Specifically, we expect the desire to put food on the table, feed in the barnyard, and fuel in the gas tank will increasingly clash
with mounting environmental, political and socioeconomic supply-side constraints.
The demand-side pressures speak for themselves. The world is expected to add two to three billion more people (i.e. mouths to
feed) by 2050, the bulk of which will surface in emerging markets. At the same time, robust economic growth and burgeoning
middle classes in these regions are facilitating a dietary evolution toward greater protein intake and processed foods (United
Nations FAO). Taken together, the FAO estimates that agricultural output will need to rise 75.0% by 2050 just to keep the planet
sufficiently fed. Meanwhile, energy security concerns have introduced an accelerating bio-fuel phenomenon that increasingly
competes for already scarce food supplies. Finally, we highlight the massive inflow of investment dollars, and arguably
speculation, which has greatly enhanced equity and commodity volatility in recent years.
Supply-induced challenges have also introduced powerful stressors on the global Ag complex. Weather, pest and disease, in
particular, are responsible for delivering powerful, unpredictable shocks to global output. For instance, severe drought in Russia,
coupled with excessive flooding in Canada, China and Australia, conspired to impair 2010 global wheat production. Long term
issues such as climate change, declining arable land per capita, water scarcity, and declining productivity growth also present
material challenges that, if not addressed, will place mounting strains on the complex’s ability to feed the planet.
The corollary, in our view, is that we are in the preliminary stages of a long-term bull market in agriculture products. With global
food reserves hovering near multi-decade lows, and many foodstuffs trading at multi-decade highs, we believe that prices are
likely to remain both elevated and volatile. After decades of underinvestment, we also believe the sector is ripe for change,
requiring significant investment in research and development, productivity enhancement, and commercialization, a process
which is expected to create a wealth of investable opportunities.
At the same time, investor caution is also warranted, as short-term cyclicality can often turn against long-term secular forces. In
this context, we highlight the tremendous volatility associated with many Ag-related equities and commodities over the past
two years. As always, we believe investors should be cognizant of market expectations and, above all, valuation sensitive.
This report profiles SEVEN Canadian-listed companies that boast significant exposure to the global Ag sector. Three of them—
Rocky Mountain Dealerships, Cervus Equipment and Asia Bio-Chem Group Corp. —are part of our existing universe of stocks.
Four others—Viterra, Alliance Grain Traders, BioExx Specialty Proteins, GLG Life Tech—represent new initiations of coverage for
us (see Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1: Raymond James Ltd. – Agribusiness & Food Products Universe
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 170 and Analyst Certification on page 171.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 2 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Table of Contents
Supply-Side Pressures......................................................................................................................... 10
Supply-Demand Implications.............................................................................................................. 17
Company Initiations............................................................................................................................ 35
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 3 of 183
Despite our positive long-term view toward the broader Ag sector, we recommend that
investors remain vigilant in their Ag investing process. In particular, we highlight the
inherent volatility that often strikes Ag equities in association with short-term events
(i.e. weather-related supply shocks). We’re also mindful of market expectations, which
tend to ebb and flow in tandem with Ag commodity prices, geopolitical events, and
headline news. Given this basket of largely unpredictable factors, we recommend that
investors steer toward those companies that boast a: (i) strong growth profile; (ii)
healthy balance sheet; (iii) proven management team; and (iv) attractive valuation. This
lattermost criterion is particularly important, in our view, in order to provide investors
with a healthy margin of safety in the event that unforeseen shocks do indeed arise (as
they often do).
For the purpose of this report, we have selected three ‘Top Picks’ in order to highlight
where our conviction is currently the strongest. These include: GLG Life Tech Corp.
(GLG-TSX), Cervus Equipment Corp. (CVL-TSX), and Alliance Grain Traders Inc. (AGT-TSX).
As suggested, we believe all three of these names score well against the four screening
criteria noted above and are therefore Strong Buy rated. We also highlight our
Outperform ratings on Asia Bio-Chem Group (ABC-TSX), BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
(BXI-TSX), and Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc. (RME-TSX). Viterra Inc., notably, is the
only name that we currently rate Market Perform, which we highlight is strictly due to
current valuations.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 4 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Demand-Side Pressures
World food demand is forecast to steadily climb over the next four decades. Specifically,
the UN estimates that global food output will need to rise by ~75.0% over the same
period just to keep the world adequately fed. We see this trend favourably impacting
the growth outlook for all of our Ag-related names due to global increases in demand
for both high-quality, nutritious foods as well as convenience-oriented, processed food
products. Factors supporting this demand growth include:
9,000 80.0%
8,000
70.0%
7,000
Population (mlns)
60.0%
6,000 Global population grow th
50.0% is expected to be
5,000 primarily centered w ithin
40.0% the developing w orld.
4,000
30.0%
3,000
20.0%
2,000
1,000 10.0%
0 0.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 2015E 2025E 2035E 2045E
Developed nations Least developed nations Developing nation population as % of global total
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 6 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Exhibit 3: Urban Population as % of Global Total Exhibit 4: Global Growth in Mean GNI per Capita
35,000
60.0
2,500
(current $US)
2,000 25,000
5,000 40.0
1,500 20,000
4,000
30.0
15,000
3,000 1,000
20.0 10,000
2,000
500
10.0 5,000
1,000
0 0.0 0 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2020
2040
Source: World Bank, UN FAO, Raymond James Ltd.
Exhibit 5: Meat & Dairy Consumption Growth ‘09-’19 Exhibit 6: Chinese F&B Industry Market Value
50.0%
$800
OECD Nations Developing Nations
$700
40.0% 37.8% 38.6%
∆ in Vlm Consumed 2009-2019 (%)
33.4% $600
33.3%
CAGR = 25%
US$ Million
30.0% $500
22.9% $400
20.0% $300
13.2% 14.6%
$200
10.0%
6.1%
3.3% 4.3% $100
$-
0.0%
Beef & Veal Pork Poultry Butter Cheese 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: World Bank, HK Monetary Authority, GLG Life Tech Corp., Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 7 of 183
3. Pulses Evolution
The long-term outlook for global pulse demand is compelling, in our view.
Specifically, we believe that pulses will continue to play an increasingly prominent
role in both developed and emerging markets as an efficient (see Exhibit 7),
economical source of protein, offering tremendous health and ancillary benefits.
Growth in pulse consumption will, in our view, have the greatest positive impact on
Alliance Grain Traders, followed by Viterra (see below for more).
Pulse crops are expected to become a growing source of dietary protein within the
emerging markets. Consisting of dry beans, peas, lentils, and chickpeas, pulses
currently make up approximately ~10.0% of protein and ~5.0% of caloric intake
within low income nations. However, because they require only a fraction of the
water to produce an equivalent ounce of protein (vs. meat), we expect
consumption to grow steadily, most rapidly in the world’s arid regions and
emerging markets. The FAO corroborates this view, expecting pulses demand in
emerging markets to reach 45.4 mln tonnes by 2030, up considerably versus the
38.3 mln tonnes expected for 2015 (see Exhibit 8).
According to the UN FAO, emerging markets represent the lion’s share of global
pulse demand, accounting for over 60.0% of consumption in 2007. Furthermore,
the world’s poorest, least developed nations made up almost 20.0% of global
consumption in this same period. Given the pulse attributes described above,
demand growth is expected to remain healthy with rapid population growth serving
as the single most important demand variable (per capita consumption is expected
to be flat). Major importing nations including India, Egypt, and Turkey are expected
to increase their imports over time, while exporters such as China are expected to
soon become net importers of product.
In Canada, pulses have steadily increased their position within the agricultural
landscape. Specifically, the value of pulse crops (measured in terms of farm cash
receipts) grew at CAGR of ~7.3% from 2001 to 2009 to make up 7.3% of all crop
value. Although total Canadian pulse production volumes in 2010 exceeded crops
such as soybeans and oats, they remain below staple crops such as wheat and corn,
according to Agriculture Canada.
Exhibit 7: Protein Content by Weight (%) Exhibit 8: Emerging Market Pulses Demand
40.0% 50.0
36% 45.4
Pulses provide protein
Pulses Demand for Food (mln tonnes)
Maize
Corn
Rice
Milk
Poultry
Pulses
Eggs
Barley
Wheat
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Exhibit 9: Cereal Demand for Feed vs. Total Exhibit 10: Grains Required to Produce Meat
3,000 2,831
1980 1998 2015 2030
1,864 1,917
2,000
1,544
1,437 Pork 4
1,500
1,129
1,000
712
599
525
428 652 Poultry 2
500
0 0 2 4 6 8 10
Industrial Developing
World Kg Grains to Produce 1kg Meat
Countries Countries
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Rising energy prices and global energy security concerns have spawned robust growth in
bio-fuels production (i.e. ethanol) over the past half-decade, introducing another major
competing use for global grain production. Despite the economic folly behind the
argument, government incentives (i.e. subsidies) and long-term renewable fuel
mandates have played a critical role in promoting bio-fuels as a legitimate blending
agent for gasoline. According to the OECD, global bio-fuels production is therefore
expected to grow from 89,427 mln litres in 2009 to 158,849 mln litres in 2019,
representing a 5.9% CAGR (see Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11: Global Biofuel Production Forecast Exhibit 12: Ethanol’s Share of US Corn Production
250,000
50.0%
Biodiesel Ethanol * figures are cumulative 24,000 Corn for other uses
Corn produced for ethanol 45.0%
200,020
200,000 20,000 Ethanol as % of total corn prdn 40.0%
35.0%
16,000
150,000 30.0%
12,000 25.0%
0 - 0.0%
2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2009 2019 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21
USA EU Brazil World
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Supply-Side Pressures
Sharp declines in global arable land per capita could represent a material threat to
global food security over time, in our view. While total land under cultivation is
expected to grow—as it has for several decades—the pace is expected to significantly
lag population growth and other powerful forces driving global food demand.
Exhibit 13: Arable Land per Capita Exhibit 14: Global Net Potential Arable Land
0.5
North Africa & Near East Area Cultivated
Net Potential Arable Land
0.4 North Asia
Arable Land per Capita (Ha)
Europe
0.3
North America
0.2
Asia & The Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
-
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2015E 2030E 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Net Potential Arable Land (Million ha)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 11 of 183
Water Scarcity
Water scarcity is expected to limit future growth in crop yield. Historically, yield gains
have relied upon improved irrigation. As a result, the Ag sector is now the single largest
consumer of fresh water globally, accounting for ~75.0% of all water drawn from rivers,
lakes and aquifers. However, many studies suggest that current extraction levels are
unsustainable, most notably in China, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.
Water available for agriculture and future yield growth is expected to diminish due to
competing requirements from rapid urbanization and industrialization. This issue is
expected to be particularly acute in the same semi-arid regions where uncultivated
arable land remains plentiful. The pace of growth in irrigated land has slowed
considerably in the last decade (see Exhibit 15) and without structural changes, pressure
on water resources is forecasted to result in significant gaps between supply and
demand in major emerging markets (see Exhibit 16).
Exhibit 15: Irrigated Land Expansion Exhibit 16: 2030 Water Supply/Demand Gap
350 CAGR = 2.70% CAGR = 0.96% 1,600
*Base case, assuming no structural changes
300 1,400
1,000
200
800
150 25% gap
600
100
400
50 200
0 0
Supply Demand Supply Demand
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
China India
World Developing countries Developed countries Industry Agriculture Municipal & Domestic
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Climate Change
Exhibit 17: Russian Wheat Production/Consumption Exhibit 18: Russian Wheat Export Prices
100
30,000
4.0%
Russian production falls below
20,000 estimated consumption needs
50
for 2010/2011 harvest 2.0%
10,000
0 0.0% 0
1987/1988 1991/1992 1995/1996 1999/2000 2003/2004 2007/2008 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 13 of 183
In light of the compounding demand and supply side factors reviewed thus far,
productivity gains will, in our view, remain the single most important variable in driving
global food output. Productivity growth has been the dominant source of incremental
output gains over the past century and agro-ecological models suggest further increases
are attainable. On the other hand, several leading bodies point out that productivity
growth may be a ‘false panacea’ as cereal crop yield growth has plummeted sharply
since the early 1980s and mounting socio-economic and resource limitations portend
increasingly difficult hurdles toward achieving higher growth.
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Exhibit 19: Global Mixed Grain Yields Exhibit 20: 2007-2050 Crop Productivity
70%
Global wheat yield (MT/HA)
0.1
55%
0.1 40%
25%
0.0
10%
-0.1
-5%
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 15 of 183
Farm Income
One obvious implication from rising food prices is higher incomes for farmers. Although
there are other important factors to consider—such as operating costs (fuel prices, for
example, have been offsetting some of the benefits related to higher crop prices),
technological innovations, financing incentives, trade-in values, fleet age, etc.—higher
farm incomes tend to effect a great propensity to spend on Ag machinery. We see such
a trend favourably impacting the growth outlook for the two Ag dealers that we cover,
namely Rocky Mountain and Cervus. Higher farm incomes also increase farmer spending
on seeds, crop protection, and other inputs that ensure greater productivity. We believe
this has positive implications for Viterra.
Vertical integration within the global food supply chain is, however, resulting in higher
consumer and production standards that contribute to a growing gap between farmers
in developed countries and those in the developing world that may not have the
resources to comply with stringent standards. This is further exasperated by policies
within most OECD nations designed to protect producers (i.e. farmers) from price
fluctuations which are not always replicated in the developing world.
1. North American Farms Poised for Big Numbers
The USDA estimates 2011 net farm income of $94.7 bln, up 20.0% y/y and 46.0%
higher than the previous 10-yr average of $64.8 bln. The gains are across the board
but do vary by sector. Specifically, the y/y gain in value for food grains is projected
to be ~15.0% while cotton and oil crops are expected to increase by ~35.0% and
~27.0% respectively. These numbers are driven primarily by strength in agriculture
commodity prices. Although large y/y swings in net farm income are typical of the
industry, an overall improvement over time is clearly evident (see Exhibit 21) in
tandem with increasing prices, dropping input costs, and strong export demand.
2. Increased Expenditures
The noted recent increased farmer income has translated into strength in demand
for equipment and supplies. Notwithstanding the already strong farm balance
sheets and historically low debt levels as measured by an average debt-to-asset
ratio of 11.3% (see Exhibit 22), we note N.A. farmers also benefit from low interest
rates associated with debt financing including equipment financing. Indeed, OEM
financing incentives have been very aggressive lately. This represents a significant
risk to future demand, in our view, if (when?) rates start to normalize. In the
meantime, however, we expect the outlook for Ag machine sales to remain robust.
Exhibit 21: Farm Spending Trends Exhibit 22: Healthy U.S. Farmer Solvency
60 1,500,000
20.0%
$US Blns
50
15.0%
40 1,000,000
30 10.0%
20 500,000
5.0%
10
0 0 0.0%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011E 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
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Exhibit 23: G-20 Value Added by Sector Exhibit 24: % of Global Sector Growth in BRIIC Nations
Value added 2008-2020 CAGR 2008-2020 Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing 80
Sector
($ Blns) (%) Energy, Mining & Quarrying 70
Public Admin, Sanitary & Personal Srvs 1,324 3.2 Construction 66
Other Business Activities 1,136 2.9 Processed Food 59
Real Estate & Dwellings 1,060 2.1 Electricity, Gas, and Water 56
Wholesale Trade 1,058 3.2 Transportation & Storage 52
Medical, Dental, Veterinary, Other Health 826 2.9 Wholesale Trade 46
Transportation & Storage 762 3.4
Motor Vehicle Sales, Repair, Maint. 44
Educational Services 692 2.9
Communications 39
Financial Institutions 657 2.8
Construction 621 2.4 Restaurants and Hotels 38
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing 588 2.9 Financial Institutions 36
Communications 583 3.6 Public Admin, Sanitary & Personal Srvs 35
Retail Trade ex. Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles 543 2.6 Radio, TV, & Communications Equipment 34
Restaurants and Hotels 373 2.8 Educational Services 32
Electricity, Gas, and Water 370 3.1 Insurance 28
Energy, Mining & Quarrying 318 2.9 Real Estate & Dwellings 28
Computer & Related Activities 318 3.5 Retail Trade ex. Vehicles 27
Radio, TV, and Communications Equipment 313 4.5 Computer & Related Activities 23
Processed Food 231 3.7 Other Business Activities 23
Insurance 222 2.4
Medical, Dental, Veterinary, Other Health 18
Motor Vehicle Sales, Repair, Maint. 218 2.3
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 17 of 183
Supply-Demand Implications
The corollary, in our view, is that we are in the preliminary stages of a long-term bull
market in agriculture products. With global food reserves hovering near multi-decade
lows, and many foodstuffs trading at multi-decade highs, we believe that prices are
likely to remain both elevated and volatile for the foreseeable future. After decades of
underinvestment, we also believe the sector is ripe for change, requiring significant
investment in research and development, productivity enhancement, and
commercialization, a process which is expected to create a wealth of investable
opportunities.
Exhibit 25: Global Stocks-to-Use Ratios (Historical) Exhibit 26: UN Food Indices (Historical)
70.0% 450
Wheat stocks-to-use ratio Rice stocks-to-use ratio
Food price index Meat price index
60.0% Corn stocks-to-use-ratio 400
Sugar price index Oils price index
Stocks-to-use
Global stocks to use ratio (%)
50.0% 350
vs. Index (2002-2004=100)
ratios have
been on the
40.0% 300
decline
30.0% 250
20.0% 200
10.0% 150
0.0% 100
-10.0% 50
-20.0% 0
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
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Exhibit 27: CBOT Open Interest, Ag Commodities Exhibit 28: N.A.-listed Ag ETFs & ETNs
4,000,000
Corn Soybeans Wheat
3,500,000
US-Listed Agriculture ETFs
Mcap
3,000,000 ETF Name ($mlns)
PowerShares DB Ag Fund 2,660.0
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF 2,130.0
2,500,000 ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity - Ag Total Return 454.5
Open Interest
1,000,000
500,000
-
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Company Overviews
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beans offers the firm a differentiated product portfolio. We believe that these
technologies and unique products give the firm additional avenues for growth as well as
a competitive advantage over many of its peers.
90.0
700.0 12.0
80.0
600.0
70.0 10.0
500.0
60.0
8.0
400.0 50.0
6.0
40.0
300.0
30.0 4.0
200.0
20.0
100.0 2.0
10.0
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 23 of 183
$350,000 $50,000
Crystalline Glucose
Revenue by Segment ($000s)
$45,000
$100,000 $15,000
$10,000
$50,000
$5,000
$0 $0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
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Arash Yazdani MBA (Associate) | 604.659.8280 | arash.yazdani@raymondjames.ca Market Capitalization (mln) C$303
Current Net Debt (mln) ($10)
Enterprise Value (mln) C$293
Shares Outstanding (mln) 174.0
Agribusiness & Food Products Average Daily Volume (000s) 867
Dividend/Yield C$0.00/0.0%
Key Financial Metrics
Initiating Coverage: Move over Whey, Canola may be the new 2010A 2011E 2012E
Heavyweight EPS (C$)
-$0.09 -$0.07 $0.02
P/E
Overview n.m. n.m. n.m.
EPS - 1Q (Mar)
-$0.03 -$0.02 NA
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. (‘BXI’) is an early stage venture engaged in the EPS - 2Q (Jun)
-$0.02 -$0.02 NA
development of proprietary technologies used for extraction of high-quality proteins EPS - 2Q (Sep)
from oilseeds. With a 40,000 tpy plant located in Saskatchewan, the company is -$0.02 -$0.02 NA
EPS - 4Q (Dec)
currently attempting to demonstrate its ability to produce canola-based protein isolates -$0.03 -$0.01 NA
on a commercial scale—a potential industry first. Boasting high nutritional value and Revenue (mln)
$3 $11 $57
compelling functional attributes, we believe that BXI’s isolates, once available, are likely EBITDA (mln)
to enjoy strong uptake in traditional protein additive markets. The company trades on -$14 -$14 $12
EV/EBITDA
the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “BXI”. n.m. n.m. 25.1x
EBITDA Margin (%)
We are initiating coverage on BXI with an Outperform rating and $2.50 target price, n.m. n.m. 20.5%
representing a 43.7% total return based upon the stock’s closing price on April 20, 2011. Net Debt/Equity (mrq) -0.1x
Net Debt/Trailing EBITDA (mrq) 0.8x
BVPS (mrq, tangible) C$0.42
We recommend growth-oriented investors buy shares of BXI to capitalize on what we Company Description
view as the firm’s large growth opportunities in the global protein additive market. BioExx is a Canadian TSX-listed technology and food
ingredients company focused on the extraction of
Key attributes of our investment thesis include: premium plant proteins.
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 25 of 183
Build It & They Will Come; Scalable Plant Footprint—Rather than license its technology
to an established global heavyweight, BXI has elected to go it alone and prove out the
global market opportunities open to its extraction technology. Following
commercialization, the company plans to aggressively expand capacity, with initial plans
calling for five plants totaling 800,000 tonnes in capacity, all based upon a standardized,
scalable plant design to facilitate a quick roll out.
250,000 100,000
Isolexx Protein
Vitalexx Protein
Canola Meal 80,000
Revenue by Product ($000s)
200,000
Canola Oil
EBITDA ($000s)
60,000
150,000
40,000
100,000
20,000
50,000
-
- (20,000)
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Potential Acquisition Candidate—The food additive and ingredient space has become a
major focus for global agriculture companies in recent years, marked by several notable
recent acquisitions. Given the market opportunities we foresee for canola-based protein
additives, we view BioExx as an attractive acquisition target once the company
demonstrates the full-scale commercial viability of its proprietary extraction technology.
Large Option Value Embedded in Share Price—Presuming BXI’s commercialization
efforts are successful, we highlight that that the market is currently attributing very little
value to the company’s second plant planned for Minot, North Dakota, and zero for
future plant expansions—each of which could add an additional $2.00 to $3.00 per
share in incremental value, in our view. In this context, we believe the stock boasts a
relatively attractive risk-reward profile at current levels, although we highlight that the
commercialization risk over the next six to nine months remains high.
Initiating with Outperform Rating; $2.50 Target—We are initiating coverage on BXI
with an Outperform rating and $2.50 target price. Based upon the stock’s most recent
close, our target price represents a 43.7% total return. Given the company’s early stage
of development and strong future projected cash flows, we employ a DCF analysis to
derive our target price. To risk adjust our DCF analysis for BXIs near-term
commercialization risk, we apply an additional 25.0% discount to our DCF output.
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closer attention to their food labels and dietary intake. These same themes have also
surfaced in emerging markets, where disposable incomes are rising, processed food and
beverage consumption is surging, and health-related issues are escalating. Finally, the
soaring cost of sugar—which recently surpassed 30-yr highs—has made alternative
sweeteners far more attractive from a price-point perspective.
Stevia is a Potential Game-Changer; Poised to Take Global Share—Stevia is a zero-
calorie, naturally-derived sweetener that offers consumers a viable alternative to
traditional high-caloric sweeteners (i.e. sugar, corn syrup) and chemically-derived
alternative sweeteners (i.e. sucralose, aspartame). These positive attributes, coupled
with rapidly evolving consumer preferences, swift uptake by global food and beverage
manufacturers and falling regulatory barriers, suggest stevia is poised to rapidly take
market share in the $60.0 bln global sweetener market. Recent estimates by food and
drink consultancy Zenith International support this view, suggesting the global market
for stevia extract is likely to reach US$825 mln by 2014 versus only US$285 mln in 2010.
Global Leader; Unrivalled, Low-Cost Infrastructure—GLG is one of the world’s leading,
low-cost producers of high quality stevia extract. With vertically integrated operations
strategically positioned to take advantage of favourable growing conditions throughout
10 Chinese provinces, GLG boasts industry leading R&D, processing capacity, and new
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 29 of 183
product development initiatives that afford the company an unrivalled low-cost position
and distinct competitive advantage.
Chinese Market Key; Enormous Growth Potential—China represents GLG’s largest,
fastest growing market, enabling enormous growth opportunities on a standalone basis,
in our view. We believe that rising disposable incomes, a burgeoning middle class, and
increasing processed food and beverage demand will continue to drive robust growth in
domestic sweetener demand. These factors, as well as multi-decade high sugar prices,
translate into strong demand growth opportunities for stevia extract sales, in our view.
Premiere Partnership with Cargill; Additional Partners for ROW Distribution—
Historically, the bulk of GLG’s stevia sales have been to Cargill, an international provider
of food and agricultural products and services. Cargill’s use of GLG stevia extract within
its branded sweetener TRUVIA, which is then sold to major North American beverage
companies including Coca-Cola, has served as a significant ‘stamp of approval’. Beyond
Cargill, GLG is continuing to focus on additional growth within the rest-of-the world
markets through multi-year, international distribution agreements with a distinguished
list of regional partners. We expect these key partnerships, many solidified over the past
year, to provide strong sources of revenue and earnings growth in the future.
Next Legs of Growth: ANOC and Blendsure—GLG recently launched a joint venture,
ANOC, aimed at introducing zero-calorie, stevia-based beverages to the rapidly growing
Chinese consumer market. With an experienced management team already in place, six
initial products nationally-approved, and distribution channels secured, ANOC launched
its products on March 31, 2011 and within only three weeks shipped 6 million bottles.
Given the size of this opportunity, management is targeting more than half a billion in
sales by 2013. GLG’s new ‘Blendsure’ product is a potential game-changing formulation
aimed at providing F&B companies with half-calorie (blended) product ideal for
consumer products.
30.5
$250,000 $50,000
30.0
$150,000 29.0
$30,000
28.5
$100,000 $20,000
28.0
$50,000 $10,000
27.5
$- $- 27.0
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Attractive Valuation—With the stock trading at just 11.5x and 6.3x our 2011 and 2012
EV/EBITDA estimates, we believe little, if any, of the growth from the aforementioned
ANOC joint venture is priced into GLG’s stock price. Furthermore, our current estimates
lie at the bottom end of guidance for 2011, use reasonable estimates for 2012, and do
not account for the even stronger growth we expect in 2013 (and beyond), arguably
providing a great deal of conservatism at this point.
Initiating with Strong Buy Rating; $12.50 Target Price—Our $12.50 target price is based
on a sum-of-parts valuation resulting in a consolidated 8.4x EV/EBITDA target multiple
applied to our 2012E estimate. This multiple is at a modest discount to GLG’s sweetener
and global f&b peers, given its size and relatively early stage of development.
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Canada Research | Page 30 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 31 of 183
additional construction line (Doosan), a second ag equipment line (New Holland), and
better servicing the needs of the large scale, sophisticated farming customer base.
Increased Focus on Harvesting Internal Growth—All of the companies Rocky Mountain
has acquired fit a similar profile—i.e. they typically distribute Case or New Holland
equipment and are based in western Canada—making integration a fairly streamlined
process. That said, with the recent high level of activity (5 acquisitions were made last
year; two acquisitions have been made YTD), we expect Rocky Mountain to be more
internally focused this year as they strive to fully optimize some recently acquired
dealers. We believe that this ‘harvesting’ process will produce accelerated results in
2H11 and 2012.
Reiterate Outperform Rating; $14.00 Target Price—We continue to remain bullish on
the equipment distribution sector in general and view Rocky Mountain as one of the
best (and few remaining) value ideas in the space. We also are encouraged by Rocky
Mountain’s near-term shift to focus on improving the performance of previously
acquired stores. To arrive at our $14.00 target price, we apply a ~12.0x our revised 2011
forecast of $1.15. This represents a liquidity-adjusted discount to the current peer group
average. Our 2011 forecast assumes no further acquisition will be made in the
remainder of the year. Our 2012 EPS forecast is $1.44 and we assume that the company
will resume making acquisitions (totaling ~$130 mln in revenues) next year.
Annual Revenues
Date Company Acquired
($000's)
1-Jan-11 Agritrac Equipment Ltd. 47,000
1-Apr-11 J&B Equipment Ltd 18,000
2011- 2 Acquisitions YTD 65,000
1-Mar-10 Roydale New Holland Inc. 22,000
7-Jun-10 Wardale Equipment 39,000
1-Sep-10 Gateway Farm Equipment 12,300
1-Sep-10 Allen Agrocentre Ltd 5,800
15-Oct-10 K&M Farm Equipment Ltd 16,900
2010 - 5 Acquisitions 96,000
1-Apr-09 Heartland Equipment Ltd. 28,100
1-Nov-09 Enns Agri 13,000
1-Nov-09 Mayor Equipment 15,000
2009 - 3 Acquisitions 56,100
9-Jun-08 Roydale International Ltd. 8,000
27-Aug-08 Miller Farm Equipment Inc. 101,000
9-Oct-08 Lakeland Implements Ltd 8,000
2008 - 3 Acquisitions 117,000
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 32 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
will increasingly rely on imported products to satisfy demand. The corollary, in our view,
is that international grain handlers with global sourcing capabilities will become
increasingly vital to global food security over time. Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 33 of 183
margin capture at all stages of the supply chain. In western Canada, Viterra operates
the largest network of retail stores, totaling 261 locations, boasting a 34.0% market
share in key crop inputs (seed, crop protection products and fertilizer) and ag-
equipment. Downstream, the firm’s processing activities include the world’s largest
industrial oat miller and N.A.’s third largest pasta producer.
Exhibit 34: VT Revenue and EBITDA Profile
$0 $0 0.0
2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 34 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Agri-Products/Processing
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. AGT.CA CAD 31-Dec 23.25 20 464 93 557 23.3 8.2 6.6 n.m. 6.4 5.1 16.7 1.5 2.4%
Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM.US USD 30-Jun 35.81 637 22,822 11,526 34,348 11.7 10.7 10.2 8.9 8.9 8.4 33.6 1.6 1.8%
Bunge Limited BG.US USD 31-Dec 72.88 147 10,728 4,264 14,992 17.6 12.3 11.2 10.3 8.0 7.5 28.4 0.9 1.2%
GrainCorp Ltd. GNC.AU AUD 30-Sep 7.98 198 1,583 240 1,823 20.1 11.8 11.6 8.6 6.3 6.3 13.2 1.2 3.1%
Monsanto Co. MON.US USD 31-Aug 67.53 536 36,195 138 36,333 28.0 23.8 20.1 14.3 12.2 10.7 0.4 3.6 1.7%
Syngenta AG SYNN.VX CHF 31-Dec 308.90 93 28,631 1,597 30,228 19.7 15.7 13.9 12.4 10.4 9.5 5.3 3.8 --
The Andersons, Inc. ANDE.US USD 31-Dec 48.68 19 901 515 1,417 14.0 12.6 12.0 12.1 8.8 8.5 36.4 2.0 0.9%
Viterra VT.CA CAD 31-Oct 11.34 372 4,126 1,518 5,644 23.7 13.1 14.4 10.9 7.8 8.1 26.9 1.1 0.9%
19.8 13.5 12.5 11.1 8.6 8.0
Food Ingredients Companies
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. BXI.CA CAD 31-Dec 1.74 174 303 (10) 292 n.m n.m n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. (3.5) 4.8 --
Burcon Nutrascience Corp. BU.CA CAD 31-Mar 9.50 30 283 (13) 270 n.m n.m 15.3 n.m. n.m. 11.1 (4.8) n.m. --
CSM nv CSM.AE EUR 31-Dec 25.35 66 1,669 631 2,300 14.5 12.6 10.4 8.0 7.6 6.7 27.4 1.5 3.6%
Danisco A/S DCO.KO DKK 30-Apr 663.00 48 31,578 3,626 35,204 24.9 21.9 20.1 14.4 11.5 10.8 10.3 2.5 1.3%
Kerry Group plc KRZ.DB EUR 31-Dec 27.29 175 4,783 1,155 5,937 14.0 12.8 11.6 9.6 9.4 8.8 19.4 2.9 1.1%
Tate & Lyle plc TATE.Ln GBP 31-Mar 5.99 458 2,741 561 3,302 16.1 13.4 12.5 8.0 7.9 7.6 17.0 3.3 3.8%
17.4 15.2 14.0 10.0 9.1 9.0
Global Sugar & Sweetener Companies
Asia Bio-Chem Group Corp. ABC.CA CAD 31-Dec 1.15 87 100 50 150 8.1 4.6 3.1 8.0 4.7 3.2 33.3 1.6 --
Corn Products International Inc. CPO.US USD 31-Dec 53.64 76 4,093 1,467 5,560 16.6 13.2 12.1 9.6 7.0 6.6 26.4 2.1 1.0%
GLG Life Tech Corporation GLG.CA CAD 31-Dec 9.05 36 322 28 350 n.m. 32.3 11.5 n.m. 10.7 5.8 7.9 1.8 --
Global Sweeteners Holdings Ltd. 3889.HK HKD 31-Dec 1.94 1,149 2,230 518 2,748 24.6 13.0 10.5 11.8 10.0 7.7 18.8 1.2 --
Imperial Sugar Co. IPSU.US USD 30-Sep 13.01 12 160 41 201 n.m. n.m. 7.4 0.9 14.7 4.1 20.5 0.7 0.6%
Purecircle Ltd. PURE.GB GBP 30-Jun 1.06 154 163 77 240 n.m. n.m. 24.5 n.m. n.m. 13.9 32.0 1.0 --
Rogers Sugar Inc. RSI.CA CAD 30-Sep 5.41 89 480 186 666 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 8.2 8.0 27.9 1.7 10.6%
Xiwang Sugar Holdings Co. Ltd 2088.HK HKD 12/31 2.47 1,006 2,486 1,016 3,502 11.8 9.4 8.1 9.0 6.4 5.9 29.0 1.5 --
14.5 14.0 11.1 8.4 8.8 6.9
Niche Food & Beverage Companies
Cott Corporation COT.US USD 01-Jan 8.66 95 820 571 1,391 12.7 11.5 9.6 7.4 5.6 5.2 41.1 1.6 --
Dr. Pepper Snapple Corp DPS.US USD 31-Dec 38.87 221 8,603 1,771 10,374 16.2 14.2 13.1 9.0 8.2 7.8 17.1 3.5 2.3%
Hansen Natural Corp. HANS.US USD 31-Dec 63.81 88 5,640 (599) 5,041 28.0 23.3 20.1 14.0 12.1 10.6 (11.9) 6.9 --
National Beverage Corp. FIZZ.US USD 01-May 13.68 46 632 (98) 535 19.3 15.9 14.7 8.3 7.2 6.7 (18.3) 4.3 --
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN.US USD 30-Jun 33.72 43 1,451 214 1,664 33.1 26.1 22.8 n.m. 13.5 12.2 12.8 1.8 --
21.8 18.2 16.1 9.7 9.3 8.5
Chinese F&B Companies
Besunyen Holdings Company Limited 926.HK HKD 31-Dec 2.94 1,681 3,754 (1,170) 2,583 26.7 18.4 14.0 11.4 7.1 5.6 (45.3) 2.8 0.3%
Bright Dairy & Food Company 600597.SH CNY 31-Dec 10.44 1,049 10,954 (342) 10,612 n.m. n.m. 29.0 6.5 5.2 4.2 (3.2) 4.7 1.1%
China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. 1886.HK HKD 31-Dec 5.30 1,478 7,833 2,734 10,567 n.m. 28.5 19.7 n.m. n.m. 12.4 25.9 1.6 0.7%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887.SH CNY 31-Dec 35.35 800 28,295 (1,798) 26,498 n.m. 26.3 21.2 n.m. 12.9 10.4 (6.8) 8.2 --
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holdings Corp 322.HK HKD 31-Dec 20.25 5,587 113,133 (248) 112,885 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. (0.2) n.m. 1.6%
Uni-President China Holdings Ltd. 220.HK HKD 31-Dec 4.40 3,599 15,838 (2,262) 13,576 30.6 26.8 20.8 13.6 11.8 9.1 (16.7) 2.4 1.2%
28.6 25.0 20.9 10.5 9.3 8.4
Ag Equipment
Agco Corp. AGCO.US USD 31-Dec 53.50 95 5,071 (2) 5,069 23.1 17.6 14.1 10.5 8.0 6.7 n.m. 1.9 --
Ag Growth International Inc. AFN.CA CAD 31-Dec 45.90 13 582 95 677 17.5 15.2 13.6 11.3 9.5 8.3 14.1 3.5 5.2%
Catepillar Incorporated CAT.US USD 31-Dec 108.28 660 71,421 23,591 95,012 n.m. 17.5 13.5 n.m. 11.2 9.1 24.8 6.6 1.6%
CNH Global NV CNH.US USD 31-Dec 45.09 238 10,751 11,968 22,719 21.7 15.9 13.0 n.m. 13.8 12.3 52.7 1.5 --
Deere & Company DE.US USD 31-Oct 93.89 421 39,532 21,341 60,873 20.1 15.1 13.0 14.1 13.7 12.2 35.1 6.3 1.5%
Harsco Corp. HSC.US USD 31-Dec 33.97 81 2,739 761 3,500 n.m. n.m. 16.8 7.3 6.8 5.9 21.7 1.9 2.4%
Hemisphere GPS, Inc. HEM.CA CAD 31-Dec 1.22 56 68 (5) 63 n.m. n.m. 13.6 n.m. 12.1 7.1 (8.0) 0.9 --
Vicwest Inc. VIC.CA CAD 31-Dec 15.64 17 272 54 327 23.3 13.9 10.1 n.m. 8.6 6.5 16.6 4.8 6.8%
21.1 15.9 13.5 10.8 10.5 8.5
Equipment Distributors
Ashtead Group Plc. AHT.GB BPN 30-Apr 2.00 503 1,007 774 1,781 n.m. n.m. n.m. 7.0 6.3 5.7 43.5 2.0 1.6%
Cervus Equipment Corp. CVL.CA CAD 31-Dec 17.62 15 258 14 272 19.2 12.8 10.3 11.1 7.8 6.4 5.3 2.2 4.1%
Finning International Inc FTT.CA CAD 31-Dec 26.66 172 4,598 696 5,294 22.4 16.7 13.7 11.6 9.3 8.0 13.1 3.3 1.8%
H&E Equipment Services Inc. HEES.US USD 31-Dec 19.35 35 678 299 976 n.m. n.m. 24.3 12.1 7.4 5.6 30.6 2.7 --
Richie Bros Auctioneers Inc. RBA.US USD 31-Dec 28.39 106 3,015 69 3,084 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 19.7 15.4 2.2 5.2 1.5%
Rocky Mountain Dealerships RME.CA CAD 31-Dec 10.05 20 197 180 377 12.1 8.7 7.0 11.1 7.5 6.2 47.8 1.8 1.8%
Rush Enterprises Inc. RUSHA.US USD 31-Dec 12.10 27 328 470 798 18.9 9.2 6.8 13.9 7.4 5.5 58.9 n.m. --
Speedy Hire Plc. SDY.GB BPN 31-Mar 0.27 517 140 124 264 n.m. n.m. n.m. 3.9 4.2 3.6 47.1 0.0 0.0%
Strongco Corp. SQP.CA CAD 31-Dec 5.20 11 55 92 146 n.m. 10.9 9.5 6.5 3.8 3.4 62.7 1.0 0.0%
Titan Machinery Inc. TITN.US USD 31-Jan 31.27 18 560 282 842 n.m. 22.6 18.0 15.9 15.9 13.1 33.5 n.m. --
Tormont Industries Ltd. TIH.CA CAD 31-Dec 32.91 77 2,534 246 2,780 n.m. 14.1 12.5 11.8 7.7 7.1 8.8 2.1 1.9%
United Rentals Inc. URI.US USD 31-Dec 28.37 61 1,733 2,658 4,391 n.m. 18.5 10.6 6.4 5.0 4.2 60.5 n.m. --
Wajax Corp. WJX.CA CAD 31-Dec 39.88 17 673 37 710 19.5 14.0 12.1 10.9 8.7 7.6 5.2 3.3 4.5%
18.4 14.2 12.5 10.2 8.5 7.1
Notes:
1.) All figures are in CAD unless otherwise noted.
2.) All estimates are from Thomson except ABC, AGT, BXI, CAT, CVL, FTT, GLG, RBA, RME, SQP, TIH, VT, and WJX are Raymond James estimates.
3.) P/E Values > 30.0x and EV/EBITDA multiples > 30.0x have been discarded (n.m.)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 35 of 183
Company Initiations
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
®
RAYMOND JAMES
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 33 and Analyst Certification on page 34.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 37 of 183
Table of Contents
Investment Overview.......................................................................................................................... 38
Company Overview............................................................................................................................. 40
Industry Analysis................................................................................................................................. 47
Company Strategy............................................................................................................................... 53
Risks .................................................................................................................................................... 67
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 38 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Investment Overview
Strong Macro Outlook—As discussed in our Apr-27-11 Industry Report Clash of the
Titans: Food vs. Feed vs. Fuel, we believe the long-term demand outlook for pulse and
specialty crops remains attractive, underpinned by robust population growth in
emerging markets and the evolution of associated dietary patterns toward greater
protein consumption. We also highlight weather-related supply shocks in recent years,
which have driven global stocks to historically low levels and promoted a strong price
environment. Finally, we expect mounting inflation and political unrest in key
consuming regions (e.g. the Middle East) will continue to favour government stockpiling.
Collectively, we believe these factors point toward robust global demand throughout
our forecast horizon and beyond.
Dominant Position in the Global Pulse Industry—AGT has rapidly emerged to become
the world’s leading provider of pulse and specialty crops. With humble Saskatchewan
roots dating back to 2001, the company has assembled an unrivalled portfolio of global
assets, largely through acquisition, that includes 24 processing plants throughout
Canada, the United States, Turkey, Australia, and China.
Multi-Origination Strategy, Positioned in Key Export Markets—AGT’s decision to
pursue multi-origin sourcing and processing capabilities is a positive strategic move, in
our view, helping reduce the firm’s exposure to adverse crop events (i.e. weather,
disease). In particular, we highlight the firm’s position within Canada and Australia, two
key growing regions which account for 32% and 6% of global pulse exports respectively.
While the full benefits of this strategy are still accruing, we expect the approach will
help smooth out earnings volatility over time. Finally, incremental geographies position
the company on the doorstep to key strategic markets such as the Middle East, North
Africa, India, and China.
Product Diversification—AGT’s strategy to diversify its product offering is also viewed
favourably, helping it leverage existing distribution channels and reduce the seasonality
of its earnings profile. In particular, we highlight the key product additions including new
pulse crops such as beans, and staple foods such as pasta and rice. Although many of
these products still represent only a small proportion of AGT’s revenues, they are
expected to provide key new pillars of growth going forward.
Value-Added Capabilities; Proprietary Pulse Products—AGT’s North American facilities
are equipped with highly advanced blending, color sorting, and splitting technologies
that create value-added margin opportunities, particularly when a high degree of crop
quality variance exists. AGT’s ability to obtain exclusive commercialization rights to
proprietary pulse varieties such as the B90 Amit chickpeas, King Red and Queen Green
lentils (the world’s first true green lentil), and Skyline navy beans offers the firm a
differentiated product portfolio. We believe that these technologies and unique
products give the firm additional avenues for growth as well as a competitive advantage
over many of its peers.
International M&A Opportunities Still Plentiful—Notwithstanding AGT’s impressive
growth profile in recent years, we believe the company’s international growth
opportunities remain plentiful, most notably in key strategic markets such as the United
States, China, and India. The US bean market for example, represents a well established,
low-risk marketplace with attractive growth attributes. Similarly, India represents the
largest lentil and chickpea markets globally and is heavily dependent on Canadian
imports. The ability to add additional staple foods (pasta, rice) and pulse crops
(chickpeas, beans) to its portfolio further supplement these opportunities, in our view.
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Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 39 of 183
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 40 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Company Overview
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. (‘AGT’) is one of the world’s leading providers of pulse and
specialty crops. With 24 facilities strategically positioned throughout Canada (12), the
United States (1), Turkey (7), Australia (3) and China (1), AGT has grown aggressively via
acquisition to become the world’s largest originator, value-added processor, and
exporter of lentils and split peas. Headquartered in Regina, Saskatchewan, the company
sells to 85 foreign countries that make up more than 95% of its sales. The company
trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘AGT’ and employs
approximately 402 people.
Business Mix
AGT is the world’s largest provider of pulse and specialty crops, including: lentils, peas,
chickpeas, beans, and bird seeds. In 2010, pulse and specialty crops represented 74.7%
of total sales. The balance of business is made up of other staple foods such as milled
grains, pasta and rice (see Exhibit 1). Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa
represent AGT’s largest buying regions, collectively accounting for ~55.8% of 2010
revenues. Asia and the Americas represent 22.4% and 21.8% of 2010 total revenues,
respectively (see Exhibit 2).
Customers—AGT’s international customer base is diversified, with no single
customer accounting for more than 5% of total revenue. Customers include
importers, packagers, canners, ingredient users and wholesale importers and
distributors, with sales typically direct or through a local pulse broker.
Suppliers—Ingredients are sourced from local producers in the five countries within
which AGT has processing facilities: Canada, US, Turkey, Australia and China.
Subsidiary Arbel Group sources its ingredients in Turkey, with a small portion
coming from around the world. Approximately 10% of crop purchases are through
fixed price production contracts, with the remainder purchased at the spot market.
AGT’s supplier base is diversified, with no single supplier accounting for more than
1% of purchases.
50%
40%
30%
20%
Pulses &
Specialty 10%
Crops 0%
2007 2008 2009
93%
Americas Asia Europe / Middle East / North Africa
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 41 of 183
Pulse Primer
What is a Pulse?
‘Pulse’ is a broad term used to describe the edible seeds of legumes. There are four
traditional pulse crops: peas, beans, lentils, and chickpeas (see Exhibit 3). However,
within these four broad categories, we note that there are dozens of species and
thousands of different varieties globally.
Pulse Applications
Pulses are a valuable source of dietary protein. Packing roughly twice the protein
content of traditional cereal grains, according to a study by the Department of
Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at the Michigan State University, they
account for ~10% of the world’s aggregate protein intake. In some developing markets,
where animal protein is still consumed in far lower quantities, this figure is substantially
higher on a per-capita basis. Specific applications and end-markets where pulses are
used include (see Exhibit 4):
Human Food—Pulses are consumed as a less expensive alternative to meat given
their high concentration of protein (two times the level of wheat and three times
that of rice).
Liquid Fuel—Vegetable oil derived from pulses can be transformed into biodiesel.
The chemical process of creating biodiesel by combining vegetable oil, alcohol and a
catalyst is known as transesterification. Fuels resulting from this process can be
transformed into ethanol, making pulses an ideal substitute for corn.
Health Benefits—Pulses are deemed as being high in nutritional value given their
low glycemic index factor (GI) and high levels of fiber, iron, and energy. Foods with
low GI help regulate blood sugar levels while dietary fiber and iron regulate the
digestive system, prevent obesity, and are critical to organ functioning. Increasing
awareness of these health benefits, most notably in emerging markets, has been a
key driver of demand.
Animal Feed—Pulses and their by-products are widely used in animal feed,
aquaculture and pet food particularly as an excellent source of protein, energy, and
amino acids.
Exhibit 3: Pulse Crops: The Edible Seeds of Legumes
Lentils Chickpeas Beans Peas
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 42 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
AGT’s product mix is currently segmented according to three broad product categories
including Pulse and Specialty Crops, Grain and Milling Products, and Other Commodities.
Pulse and Specialty Crops—This category include lentils (red and green), chickpeas,
white beans, barbunia beans, soya beans, peas (green and yellow), red beans, and
canary seeds. Over 70% of AGT’s processing volume is allocated to the lentil and
specialty crops segment. The company has strategically located its pea production
facilities within key growing regions in Canada, widely regarded as the world’s
production and export leader. Furthermore, positioning of lentil facilities within
Canada (the world’s largest exporter) and Turkey (the world’s largest producer) has
contributed towards the company’s dominant position in that market.
Grain and Milling Products—Focused on durum wheat, pasta, and bulgur, this
segment operates facilities located primarily in Turkey. Approximately 10% of AGT’s
grain and milling product is used by subsidiary Arbel as feedstock in pasta and
semolina production.
Other Commodities—Other commodities produced by AGT include sugar, salt,
edible oils, pistachio nuts, hazelnuts, roasted chickpeas, sunflower seeds and
potatoes. This segment accounts for 3.7% of total revenue.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 43 of 183
Operating Facilities
AGT has built out a geographically diversified sourcing and processing footprint.
Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, AGT now operates 24 facilities, positioned
throughout Canada (12), the United States (1), Australia (3), Turkey (7) and China (1).
The company’s aggregate processing capacity is ~1.5 mln tpy.
North America—AGT’s 12 processing facilities are primarily located in the province
of Saskatchewan (see Exhibit 5). These facilities focus on value-added pulse
processing such as cleaning, sizing, color sorting, peeling, splitting and packaging.
AGT also owns the largest pulse facility in the US, located in North Dakota.
Turkey—AGT entered the Turkish market in 2009 through the acquisition of Arbel
Group, a leading domestic processor of pulses and grains. With seven facilities in
place, and plans to open one more, the acquisition was a game-changer. Arbel is
comprised of three subsidiaries: Arbel Bakliyat (pulses), Durum Gida (semolina and
pastas), and Turkpulse (bulgur). In addition to the benefits of geographic
diversification, this acquisition provided product diversification, providing an
immediate entry into semolina and pasta, rice and bulgur (a whole-grain cereal food
most popular in the Middle East and Greece).
Australia—AGT owns and operates three processing and handling facilities in
Australia through its Australia Milling Group subsidiary. In September 2010, the
company doubled its footprint in the key growing region, via two acquisitions
including Northern York Processing and Balco Grain that closed in mid-November.
China—The November 2010 acquisition of Poortman Ltd. added a dedicated pulse
processing facility in Tianjin, China. AGT has committed to investing in expansion at
the Tianjin plant as part of its cited objective of long-term growth within China.
Europe—AGT’s acquisition of Poortman, an international pulse and birdseed
importer, distributor and merchandiser, provided it with a European distribution
network that includes sales and trading offices in the UK and Netherlands, as well as
warehouses in the UK, Netherlands, Spain, and Italy.
Supplies all types of Canadian o Saskcan Pulse Trading o Saskcan Milestone o Saskcan Parent
pulses and specialty crops o Saskcan Rosetown o Saskcan Horizon o Saskcan Assiniboia
o Saskcan Agtech o Saskcan Pulse Depot o Saskcan Gibbons
Western Canada
o Finora Wilkie
Largest pulse processing plant in o United Pulse Trading Willston
the Americas; supplies all types of
U.S. pulses and specialty crops
United States
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Canada Research | Page 44 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Company History
AGT’s history dates back to 2001 when current CEO Murad Al-Katib formed Saskcan
Pulse Trading. In 2007, the company effected a public listing through an RTO with
Agtech Income Fund, resulting in the formation of Alliance Grain Traders Income Fund.
In 2009, the fund converted into a corporation and bought its largest private
competitor, the Arbel Group (see Exhibit 6). AGT has carried out 10 acquisitions since
inception, with Arbel being the most sizeable (C$104 mln).
Most recently, in November 2010 AGT completed its purchase of Balco Grain and
Northern Yorke Processors, both based in Australia, for approximately C$10 mln.
Arbel Group
Saskcan Pulse Depot $104.1 mln Balco Grain &
Pulse Rosetown (Oct 09) Northern Yorke
$22.0 mln $9.3 mln 10.0 mln
(Aug 07) (Aug 08) (Sep. 10)
Horizon
Finora Parent Seed
Harvest Grain Seed A. Poortman
US$8.9 mln $10.0 mln
$2.2 mln
$1.4 mln
(Dec 09) (Dec 09) £8.3 mln
(Nov 08)
(Nov 07) (Nov. 10)
D = Domestic I = International
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Management Team
Murad Al-Katib, President and CEO—Murad Al-Katib helped establish Saskcan Pulse
Trading in 2001, later taking over as CEO and President of AGT after the AgTech-Saskcan
Pulse merger in 2007. He is a recipient of multiple management awards for his
entrepreneurial work done with Saskcan Pulse Trading. In 2006 Mr. Al-Katib was
appointed to the Canadian Minister of International Trade’s Advisory Board for Small
and Medium Enterprises. Mr. Al-Katib holds a Master’s degree in International
Management from the American Graduate School of International Management in
Thunderbird, Arizona. He graduated from the University of Saskatchewan with a
Bachelor of Commerce in Finance.
Huseyin Arslan, Chairman & President of the Arbel Group—Mr. Arslan is Chairman of
the Arbel Group and has been its President for the past 15 years. His family founded the
Arbel Group over 50 years ago. The Arslan family is also a cofounder of Saskcan Pulse
Trading, leading to Mr. Huseyin Arslan’s appointment as a trustee of the AGT Income
Fund in 2008. After AGT Traders acquired the Arbel Group, Mr. Arslan took over as
Chairman. Mr. Arslan holds a Bachelor of Science in Electronics Engineering from the
Middle East Technical University in Turkey and has over two decades of experience in
the trading of agricultural and food products globally. He is also an elected member of
the executive committee of the International Pulse Processors and Exporters
Federation.
Lori Ireland, CFO—Ms. Ireland is a Certified Management Accountant (CMA) with over
10 years of experience in Agricultural Accounting. Ms. Ireland joined Saskcan Pulse as
CFO in 2002, following several years in Special Crops Accounting at the Saskatchewan
Wheat Pool. Other experience includes working as an accountant for Heartland
Livestock (formerly the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool, Livestock Division) for 3 years and
managing the implementation of the Livestock Feeder Finance program through Farm
Credit Canada.
Gaetan Bourassa, COO—Mr. Bourassa was appointed COO in 2009, after first joining
Saskcan Pulse Trading in 2005 as a merchandiser and then progressing to VP of
Marketing and Operations in 2006. Other experience includes marketing at Best Cooking
Pulses as well as a 12-year career there as general manager. Mr. Bourassa holds a
diploma in Marketing from Saskatchewan Institute of Applied Science and Technology.
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Canada Research | Page 46 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
AGT’s common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker “AGT”. As
of April 13, 2011, there were 19,706,078 common shares outstanding. Institutional
investors represent the largest group of holders, holding approximately 61.4% of the
shares outstanding. Insiders also hold a significant ~23.9% position, with the Arsal family
owning ~21.9% of this total.
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Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 47 of 183
Industry Analysis
The long-term outlook for global pulse demand is compelling, in our view. Specifically,
we believe that pulses will continue to play an increasingly prominent role in both
developed and emerging markets as an efficient, economical source of protein, offering
tremendous health and ancillary benefits. Below we review the global pulse industry,
several of its key characteristics, and the underlying drivers that we expect to stoke
demand going forward.
Global Production—Small & Concentrated
The global pulse industry is a relatively niche sector within the global agriculture
complex. According to the FAO, 2009 global pulse production was ~61.5 mln tonnes (see
Exhibit 8) valued at ~$100.0 bln. For context, these volumes pale in comparison to global
heavyweight crops such as corn (~771 mln tonnes) and wheat (~676 mln tonnes). Other
notable attributes include:
Beans & Peas Top By Volume—Beans stand out as the largest pulse crop globally,
accounting for 40% of 2009 global production. This is followed by chickpeas (25%),
peas (23%), and lentils (6%), respectively (see Exhibit 9).
Concentrated Production Base—Global pulse production is heavily concentrated
with five countries accounting for more than 50% of global output. India is the
largest producer by a healthy margin, totaling 13.7 mln tpy or roughly 22.3% of total
supply in 2009. Canada is a close second, totaling 5.2 mln tpy, or 8.5%, of
production during the same period. China, Myanmar, and Brazil round out the top
five producing regions.
Exhibit 8: Global Pulse Production & Per Capita Consumption Exhibit 9: Global Pulse Production (2009)
Steady pulse
80,000 9.5
production vs. Other
6%
Pulse production (000s tonnes)
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Canada Research | Page 48 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Peas Beans
20% 4%
Chick
Peas Peas
Lentils
0.1% 1%
8%
Canada & Australia Major Exporters; Global Importance Rising—On the back of
healthy production (see Exhibit 11), Canada stands out as the world’s largest pulse
exporter (see Exhibit 12), representing 3.1 mln tpy or 32.3%, of global export
volumes in 2008. According to Agriculture Canada, this figure has steadily increased
to reach ~3.9 mln tpy in 2010. Australia is a top-five exporter at ~0.61 mln tpy or
6.3% of global 2008 exports. With large tracts of land suitable for farming, advanced
storage and transportation infrastructure, and limited domestic demand, we
believe the export contribution of these two countries is likely to rise over time.
The US, China, and Myanmar round out the top five exporting nations.
Exhibit 11: Top Pulse Producing Nations Exhibit 12: Top Pulse Exporters (2008)
3,000
Pulse production (000s tonnes)
14,000
12,000 2,500
10,000 2,000
8,000
1,500
6,000 1,118
1,032
1,000
758
4,000 608
2,000 500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Canada USA China Myanmar Australia
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As noted previously, pulses are a valuable source of dietary protein, making them a
critical food staple in emerging markets. At the same time, we highlight several
complimentary factors that are helping stoke pulse demand around the world. Key
attributes underpinning this demand include:
Health Attributes—Pulse crops are packed with nutritional advantages. High in
protein (more than any other plant – see Exhibit 13), complex carbohydrates, fibre,
and other key minerals and vitamins (iron, calcium, potassium), they provide a high
degree of energy (kcals) with a low glycemic index. They can also be stored over
long periods of time due to their low moisture content and hard-coating.
Land Efficient—Pulses are a highly efficient source of protein production, requiring
a fraction of the land required by traditional animal-based protein. According to the
World Pulses Organization, livestock currently use 33% of global arable land. Meat
is also highly inefficient from a conversion standpoint, requiring 15 tonnes of
agricultural inputs for every 1 tonne of meat produced. This has resulted in ~4x
more land being used today to grow animal food versus human food. As global
arable land per capita is projected to continue decreasing (see Exhibit 14), we
believe pulses will gain prominence as a more efficient source of protein.
Exhibit 13: Protein Content by Weight (%) Exhibit 14: Global Avg. Arable Land per Capita
40% 1.2
36%
Protein content by weight (%)
ef
Ba t
as n
es
gs
e
y
Pu y
va
a
il
rle
ic
or
tr
Be
he
M
ai
ls
Eg
sa
ul
C
M
W
Smaller Water Footprint—Pulse crops require a fraction of the water footprint used
by other sources of protein. For example, only ~43 gallons of water are required to
produce one pound of pulses, versus ~1,857 gallons of water to produce one pound
of beef (see Exhibit 15). According to a UN and McKinsey Group study, switching to
more water-efficient foods will be an important strategy required to meet the 40%
increase in water demand foreseen within 20 years. We note the increase in water
demand is estimated to be even higher in the world’s most rapidly developing
countries, the same areas that depend most on pulse crops as a source of protein.
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Canada Research | Page 50 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Taken together, pulses are deemed to be a highly economical source of protein, most
notably in the developed markets where disposable incomes remain relatively low,
while also contributing to water efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction, and providing a
source of natural fertilizer to farmers who practice crop rotation.
Exhibit 15: Water Footprint for Various Foods Exhibit 16: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
2,000 1,857
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Emerging markets represent the lion’s share of global pulse demand, accounting for
over 60% of consumption in 2007. Furthermore, industry data indicates that of this
emerging markets demand, almost one-third was made of up the world’s least
developed and most destitute nations (see Exhibit 17). Given this geographical demand
profile, global pulse demand is expected to grow alongside robust population growth
within these regions. Major importing nations including India, Egypt, and Turkey are
expected to increase their imports over time, while exporters such as China are
expected to soon become net importers of product.
In Canada, pulses have steadily increased their position within the agricultural
landscape. Specifically, the value of pulse crops (measured in terms of farm cash
receipts) grew at CAGR of ~7.3% from 2001 to 2009 to make up 7.3% of all crop value
(see Exhibit 19). Total 2010 pulse production volumes in Canada exceeded soybeans and
oats though remain below staple crops such as wheat and corn.
Low Income Food Deficit Countries 23,433 24,175 25,227 24,948 24,556 24,839 26,896 29,444 Oceania
European Union 1,522 1,538 1,439 1,419 1,371 1,293 1,305 1,320 0%
Europe
Least Developed Countries 5,699 5,913 6,358 6,546 6,527 6,849 7,043 7,589 4%
Exhibit 18: Emerging Market Pulses Demand Exhibit 19: Canada Pulses as % of Total Crop Value
50.0 25 8.0%
45.4
Pulses Demand for Food (mln tonnes)
45.0
Farm cash receipts (C$ blns)
Pulses as % of crops
6.0%
35.0 31.0 total crop income
30.0 15 5.0%
25.3
25.0 4.0%
20.0 10
3.0%
15.0
2.0%
10.0 5
2.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 1.0%
5.0
0.0 0.0%
Developing Countries Industrial Countries 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
1979-1981 1997-1999 2015 2030 Total crops Total pulses % of crops
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Competitive Landscape
The global pulse processing industry has undergone significant change over the past
decade alongside the broader agriculture sector. Consolidation and globalization, most
notably, have swept across the landscape with smaller players and facilities gradually
disappearing. In Canada, for example, a 2008 survey by the Saskatchewan Ministry of
Agriculture found 29.0% fewer processors vs. a similar survey conducted in 2002, while
total processing capacity increased by 7.0% over the same period.
AGT has very few direct competitors. There are several regional players (i.e. Walker
Seeds, Simpson Seeds, Prairie Pulse, JK International) in each of the firm’s product end-
markets and geographies, but there are few, if any, players that boast similar multi-
origin (i.e. global) capabilities, breadth of product, and value-added processing capacity.
Several multinational firms also participate in the global pulse industry (i.e. Viterra,
ADM, JK Milling); however, pulses tend to be a relatively small part of their business and
are often approached differently (i.e. bulk handling vs. value-added processing). A
subset of these competitors includes:
► Founded in 1940's based in Manitoba Processor, Exporter, White Pea Beans, Lentils, Feed Peas,
Roy Legumex Inc.
► Exports to 75 countries Cleaning and Edible Peas, Faba Beans, Chickpeas,
Private
► Container and bulk shipping Handling Canary Seed, Coloured Beans
► Founded in 1924, based in Regina White Pea Beans, Lentils, Feed Peas,
Viterra Inc. Processor, Cleaning
► Assets in Canada, U.S. Australia and New Zealand Edible Peas, Chickpeas, Sunflower,
Public and Handling,
► Extensive international platform Mustard, Buckwheat, Canary Seed,
TSX:VT Exporter
► Operates in food processing Beans, Coloured Beans
Walker Seeds Ltd. ► Based in Saskatchewan, established in 1982 Lentils, Feed Peas, Edible Peas, Faba
Processor, Exporter
Private ► Exports to 75 counrties Beans, Canary Seeds
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Company Strategy
AGT’s global growth ambitions are rooted in a core strategy aimed at de-risking the
business platform and leveraging the firm’s existing infrastructure. Multi-origin sourcing,
for example, helps reduce the risk of isolated weather-related (i.e. crop) events,
balances harvest timing, allows for capitalization on feedstock pricing arbitrage
opportunities, and diversifies product mix. Moreover, because the process of
husking/hulling, cleaning, sizing and colour sorting of many pulses is very similar, new
products also leverage off the company’s in-house processing expertise. Finally, we note
that buyers of lentils, beans, chickpeas, and rice are typically the same buyers of other
specialty crops such as canary seed, which allows the firm to drive more volumes and
fluidity through its existing processing and distribution channels. Collectively, we believe
these attributes are expected to reduce the seasonality and volatility of AGT’s earnings
over time, which we discuss in more detail below.
Multi-Origination—As noted, multi-origination is aimed at reducing the risks
associated with adverse crop-related events (i.e. weather, pest, disease). Different
harvest schedules in North America (October), Australia (December) and Turkey
(June), coupled with different climatic/precipitation regimes, should help reduce
the seasonality and volatility in crop availability, quality, and price. AGT has
strategically positioned its core assets in key exporting regions including Canada, US
and Australia, which together account for >50% of global pulse and specialty crop
exports. AGT’s infrastructure in Turkey allows the company to capitalize on the
opportunity to process and distribute to key import markets in close proximity such
as North Africa and the Middle East. Australian operations are ideal for penetrating
China and the Indian sub-continent, where it is also considering distribution
opportunities.
Product Diversification—AGT’s desire to diversify its product offering is also
expected to reduce earnings volatility by adding value-added products with stable
demand (i.e. pasta) to its portfolio, and leveraging its distribution capabilities by
pushing more product through the same channels. AGT has specifically identified
four “core platforms” for growth, including pulses (beans and chickpeas), durum
and wheat milling products, rice and other. In the tables below, we outline some of
the most logical avenues for growth. Finally, we also point out AGT’s recent success
in obtaining exclusive commercialization rights to premium proprietary products
such as the B90 Amit chickpeas, King Red and Queen Green lentils (the world’s first
true green lentil), and Skyline navy beans.
Value-Added Capabilities—One of AGT’s key competitive advantages, in our view,
is its ability to create a premium product when there is a high degree of crop
variability. The company’s North American facilities are equipped with highly
advanced blending, color sorting, and splitting technologies that create value-added
margin opportunities. Plants are highly automated, equipped with a mix of off-the-
shelf and proprietary equipment, and employ the expertise of professional ‘split-
masters’.
Minimize Underlying Commodity Risk—AGT prides itself as a pulse merchandiser,
not a commodity speculator. The company therefore considers inventory risk
management a critical component of its strategy, resolving to take no speculative
‘trade’ positions on its feedstock, and generally keeping inventory levels very low (<
5,000 tonnes un-hedged). The company also hedges out its foreign exchange,
transportation and customer pricing in an effort to lock-in margins at the time of
sale.
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Canada Research | Page 54 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
China Beans Description: ► Expand Chinese bean processing facility acquired through Poortmans
Rationale: ► Bolster initial foothold in massive Chinese marketplace; low risk expansion strategy
Timeline: ► Unclear
Cost: ► ~$3.0 - $5.0 mln
India Beans / Description: ► Develop local sourcing/processing/distbn network, preferably near/at port; attract local talent to familiarize with market.
Chickpeas Rationale: ► World's largest producer/consumer of pulses; LARGE importer from Canada; but highly fragmeneted market; must start slow.
Timeline: ► Unclear (likely longer-term)
Cost: ► Unclear
Turkey Pasta Description: ► Adding 5th pasta line; includes 35,000 mt of additional short-cut pasta
Rationale: ► Strong branded presence; top exported product; short-cut compliments existing long-cut business
Timeline: ► Q1 2011
Cost: ► ~$8.0 - $10.0 mln
United States Pasta Description: ► Will look to construct a greenfield pasta plant (50 - 60k mt)
Rationale: ► Large market; stiff import tariffs currently in place on imports; puts AGT at competitive disadvantage
Timeline: ► Longer-term
Cost: ► ~$20.0 - $25.0 mln
India Target: ► Potential sourcing, processing and distribution assets in order to replicate the Turkey model
Rationale: ► India is the largest pulse market in the world
Timeline: ► Unclear; India's market is highly fragmented and deemed as high risk, start out small by building a distribution network
Cost: ► Unclear
United States Beans Target: ► Potential bean processing assets in the U.S.
Rationale: ► Hispanic-linked bean consumption market growing rapidly, year-round consumption
Timeline: ► 1 yr
Cost: ► $25-30 mln
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AGT’s financial results (and share price) have been materially impaired in recent
quarters owing to the residual impact of Canada’s highly irregular 2010-11 crop.
Specifically, we highlight:
Record Rain, Excessive Flooding, Persistent Cool—The Canadian prairies endured a
highly aberrant growing season during 2010, characterized by near-record to record
rainfall, excessive flooding, and persistent cool temperatures. Collectively, these
factors resulted in a number of downstream ancillary effects, most which have
fared poorly for AGT.
Late Harvest—By the end of September, the Canadian harvest was only 43.0%
complete versus the 5-yr average of 97.0%, resulting in a 6 week delay versus the
typical harvest. This delay pushed back the start of AGTs peak processing season.
Coupled with limited carryover volumes from the prior quarter, this delay crippled
AGT’s plant utilization rates during 3Q—which was reflected in its financial results.
At the time, this delay also had most industry observers thinking that 4Q would see
a material pick-up in activity.
Major Quality Issues—Poor growing conditions also had a deleterious impact on
pulse crop quality, setting off another set of unintended consequences. For context,
lentils are graded and grouped according to the Canadian Grain Commission’s (CGC)
four categories: No.1, No.2, No.3, and Extra-3. In a typical crop year, 75% - 80% of
Canada’s lentils are No.2’s or better. Last season, it was the reverse, with most of
the crop falling into the bottom two quality categories, creating a glut of low quality
product.
Record Crop Volumes Exacerbate Problem—Notwithstanding the poor growing
conditions described, 2010 lentil production came in almost 30% higher than prior
year, and more than double the 10-year average—largely thanks to a sizeable jump
in seeded area and yield. Under typical growing conditions, this type of volume lift
would be a boon for AGT; however, given the aforementioned crop quality and
harvest timing issues, it created serious problems.
Farmers Became Reluctant to Sell—Facing a glut of low quality product, falling
prices, and concerns over export tolerances, farmers became very reluctant to part
with their crops, preferring to wait in the hope of better pricing later on. For AGT,
this introduced another volume sourcing problem, which subsequently impaired
the company’s 4Q utilization. We now turn our attention to 1Q11.
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In order to combat these challenges, AGT has undertaken a series of initiatives aimed at
leveraging its internal processing capabilities and the reach of its global distribution
network.
Leveraging their Distribution Platform—AGT’s merchandising expertise coupled
with geographically diverse operations has allowed the company to leverage its size
and scope in order to match the product available with suitable end-markets. In
addition, AGT has been using its size and scope to minimize transportation costs
and maximize leverage of pricing irregularities among markets.
Value-Added Sorting, Splitting and Blending—AGT attempts to create a margin
spread through its ability to process the aforementioned lower priced, lower quality
lentils (mid No.2, low No.2, and No.3) and blend them into higher-value food grade
No.2 product. The efficiencies gained through converting pulses into finished
products enable AGT to maximize its revenue per hour of processing time,
particularly advantageous in dealing with the recent quality variances.
Moving Towards Product Diversification—AGT’s move to diversify revenues
through a shift to new crops helps mitigate seasonality and sourcing risks including
some of the aforementioned weather-related issues. The company’s dependence
on pulses has decreased from 93% in 2009 to 75% of 2010 revenues. Some of these
new products include beans and chickpeas in the pulse segment and rice and pasta
in the staple food platform.
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Notwithstanding expectations for near-term harvest timing challenges, AGT boasts very
attractive long-term revenue and earnings growth prospects, in our view. Specifically,
we forecast 2011 and 2012 revenues will advance 8.1% and 9.6% y/y, respectively, to
$693.9 million and $760.3 million as pulse crop harvest timing is expected to normalize
mid-2011 and then through to 2012, versus highly atypical 2010 weather conditions. In
this context, we forecast that Pulse & Specialty crop revenues will advance 5.2% and
12.0% respectively in 2011 and 2012. Pasta and Rice revenues, meanwhile, are expected
to grow respectively at 20.0% and 18.0% y/y in 2011, owing to recent acquisitions and
organic growth expenditures. In 2012, we expect Pasta and Rice growth to temper to
3.0% y/y each.
Exhibit 22: Segmented AGT Revenue Exhibit 23: AGT Margin History & Forecast
800.0 100.0 14.0
90.0
700.0 12.0
80.0
600.0
70.0 10.0
500.0
60.0
8.0
400.0 50.0
6.0
40.0
300.0
30.0 4.0
200.0
20.0
100.0 2.0
10.0
Gross margins are also expected to recover over time. In the short-term, we expect the
residual headwinds associated with Canada’s abnormal 2010-11 crop will exert pressure
on volumes and margin—likely into 2Q11. Thereafter, with a new Canadian crop on the
horizon, we expect margins (and the company’s trading multiple) to revert back toward
normalcy.
From a seasonality perspective, we expect the company to report stronger consolidated
EBIT margin in 3Q and 4Q, when the bulk of the harvest is processed. Consistent with
the aforementioned growth profile, we expect AGT will deliver strong EBITDA and EPS
growth throughout our forecast horizon. Specifically, we forecast 2011 and 2012 EBITDA
of $66.6 mln and $87.0 mln. Similarly, we expect 2011 and 2012 EPS to come in at $1.97
and $2.66, respectively.
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Canada Research | Page 58 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
EBIT Margin 10.9% 4.1% 6.2% 6.8% 8.0% 9.6% 7.8% 9.8%
EBITDA Margin 11.7% 5.7% 8.2% 8.8% 9.8% 11.1% 9.6% 11.4%
Capital Structure
AGT maintains a sound financial position with a healthy balance sheet and sufficient
liquidity, in our view. As of 4Q10, the company had total operating credit available of
$255.7 mln with six global lenders, of which $80.3 mln had been drawn. The company
held ~$22.9 mln in long-term debt offset by a cash position of $23.6 mln, contributing
towards a current ratio of 1.5x (see Exhibit 25). We believe that healthy cash flow
generation will contribute to an improvement in its net debt-to-EBITDA (trailing 12
months) from 2.6x at the end of 2010 to 0.7x by the end of 2011. This does not take into
account any additional acquisitions, something we do not attempt to forecast. We
believe this same strong cash flow generation will be more than sufficient for AGT to
maintain operations and meet debt obligations. Finally, we highlight that AGT’s “dry-
powder”—estimated at ~$200 mln—give it the flexibility to pursue both organic and
acquisitive growth opportunities.
0.5
Debt / equity (mrq) 0.4x
Net debt / equity (mrq) 0.3x
Current ratio (mrq) 1.5x 0.0
2009 2010 2011E
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Outlook
Following a challenging 2010 dominated by weather and timing related issues as well as
unusual price volatility, AGT management is confident that demand and supply will
come into “relative balance” in 2011. Additionally, AGT’s geographical diversification is
meant to level off regional volatilities. Below we provide a more detailed account of
expectations for several key AGT business units and operating regions.
1. Canada
Notwithstanding lower seeding expectations in Canada, production volumes are
estimated to be similar to 2010-11 levels (see Exhibit 26). This normalization in pulse
seeding (i.e. lower y/y) after abnormally high 2010 levels has been widely expected as
farmers act on pre-planned rotational patterns into canola and cereal grains, before
returning to pulses the following year. This is expected to be complimented by high
carryover stocks as well as an ongoing transition in N.A. to continuous cropping. Taken
together, AGT management expects to have access to product volumes similar to 2010
levels, sufficient for its N.A. processing and export programs. Demand is expected to be
robust, especially out of India, a major consumer facing less than ideal conditions for its
own crop. From a quality standpoint, however, expectations are for continued variance,
creating opportunities for AGT to utilize its blending, splitting, and colour sorting
capabilities. This does, however, create a degree of risk as the additional processing
required for lower quality product, while creating margin opportunities, also results in
an offsetting decrease in capacity utilization rates.
2. Turkey
The outlook for Turkish lentil production is mixed between various sources, ranging
from production decreasing to remaining flat versus 2010. When coupled with
expectations for adequate supply out of Canada and Australia, we believe capacity
utilization will be high at AGT’s Arbel facilities. Furthermore, we expect a return to price
stability, boding well for AGT’s processing and distribution of lentils to core
consumption markets in the Middle East and North Africa.
Margins in AGT’s pasta business are expected to remain challenged in the short term as
Turkish durum wheat prices (used as feedstock) remain high. This may be offset, in our
view, by some ability for price increase due to continued strong demand for AGT pasta,
particularly in new markets. Rice production for 2011 is expected to be flat to slightly
higher. Despite this, Turkish demand for rice is expected to remain strong, reflected in
continued strong imports into the country. Coupled with rising prices, partially due to
supply from Egypt being knocked out, the prospects for AGT’s expanded Turkish rice
processing facility are bright.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 60 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Canada
Near-Term Outlook
Lentils:
► Exports (2010-11): Decline by 13.4% due to lower demand from Indian subcontinent and Middle East
► Seeded area (2011-12): Expected to decrease by 21.8% due to lower expected returns on relative basis
► Production (2011-12): Production will fall to 2.80 Mt vs. 2.86 Mt in 2010-11 due to lower seeded area
► Carry-out stocks (2011-12): Expected to increase 11.1% to 0.5 Mt
Dry Beans:
► Exports (2010-11): Forecasted to decrease slightly to 0.23 Mt due to lower demand from the U.S.
► Seeded area (2011-12): Significant decrease of 26.5% driven by lower relative expected returns
► Production (2011-12): Production is expected to fall 25.2% to 0.19 Mt vs. 0.25 Mt in 2010-11
► Carry-out stocks (2011-12): Expected to fall significantly to 5,000 t versus 25,000 in 2010-11
Chickpeas:
► Exports (2010-11): 7% y/y increase in exports driven by the demand from Middle East
► Seeded area (2011-12): Expected to increase to 0.85 Mt vs. 0.83 in 2010-11 due to lower stocks and higher prices
► Production (2011-12): Expected to rise to reach 135,000 in 2011-12 t vs. 128,000 t in 2010-11
► Carry-out stocks (2011-12): Forecasted to increase 66% due to higher production and unchanged outlook for exports
Seeded Area Production
1800 Dry Peas Lentils Dry Beans Chickpeas 4000 Dry Peas Lentils Dry Beans Chickpeas
1617 3571
1600 1522 3379
3500
Production (Thousand tonnes)
1396 1408
Area Seeded (Thousand ha)
1400 1300
3000 2862 2800
1200 1100
2500
971
1000 1947
2000
800 706 1510 1600
1500
600 1043
1000
400
200 128 121 136 100 85 500 266 224 254
53 83 128 190 135
32 67 76
0 0
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 F 2011-12 F 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 F 2011-12 F
3000 Dry Peas Lentils Dry Beans Chickpeas 900 Dry Peas Lentils Dry Beans Chickpeas
2826
2600 795
800
Carry Out Stocks (Thousand ha)
2500 2300
2178 700
Exports (Thousand ha)
2000 600
500
1386 500 445 450
1500 1300
1200
400
973 300
1000 300
200
200
500 282 256 245 230
53 66 70 70 100 62 46
32 25 15
0 8 5 20 5 25
0
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 F 2011-12 F
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 F 2011-12 F
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 61 of 183
We are initiating coverage on AGT with a Strong Buy rating and $30.00 target price.
Based upon the stock’s Apr-20-11 close, our target represents a 31.4% total return,
inclusive of the company’s 2.3% dividend yield. To derive our target price, we apply a
6.9x EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2012E EBITDA estimate, a metric we believe is justified
based upon the following factors:
Consistent with Historical Trading Range—AGT has historically traded between
3.5x and 9.0x forward EBITDA. Excluding trough levels reached during the depths of
the recession, this range has traditionally spanned 6.0x to 8.5x, typically oscillating
in response to volatile crop expectations and prevailing market conditions. We have
chosen to assign a multiple at the low end of this normalized range to take into
account our view of the risk associated with continued integration efforts at AGT’s
most recent acquisitions, recent weather-related crop challenges, and farmer
tendency to hold back on crops in a bid for higher prices.
Consistent with Closest Peers—In the absence of any direct, publicly traded
competitors, we look to the world’s heavyweight grain handlers, including Viterra
and GrainCorp, for comparable trading analysis. Despite the obvious differences in
products, end-markets, and value-added processing in the bulk handling business
model, we take comfort in that these agriculture enterprises share some similar
crop (i.e. weather) related exposure. As Appendix B illustrates, AGT currently trades
at a modest discount versus its closest comparables, most likely in response to 2011
estimates correcting downwards after two consecutive quarters of guidance misses,
in addition to recent weather-related crop challenges.
Future Acquisitions Not Reflected in Estimates—As discussed herein, AGT’s growth
mandate is far from complete, in our view, with an under-levered balance sheet
likely to facilitate additional product and geographic tuck-in acquisitions. However,
because it is very difficult to speculate on the timing, size, and specific target
characteristics, we have refrained from building in bolt-on transactions. This
therefore suggests the potential for revisions to our estimates.
In closing, we believe that AGT represents an attractive investment opportunity for
growth orientated investors seeking exposure to the global agriculture sector. We
believe that expectations have clearly been reset lower in recent months on the back of
extreme weather events and the deleterious impact on Canadian pulse crop quality and
harvest timing. However, because these events do little to impact the intrinsic value of
AGT’s underlying business, we argue the commensurate pullback in the AGT’s share
price represents a good entry point for investors. Our conviction is further bolstered by
AGT’s solid pipeline of growth opportunities and a distinguished management team with
the vision and fortitude to redefine the global pulse industry.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 62 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Exhibit 27: AGT Historical NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple Exhibit 28: AGT Historical NTM P/E Multiple
25.0
60.0
AGT EV/EBITDA NTM AGT EV/EBITDA NTM (Avg.) AGT P/E NTM AGT P/E NTM (Avg.)
20.0 50.0
Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple (NTM)
30.0
10.0
20.0
5.0
10.0
0.0 0.0
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 63 of 183
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 64 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Long-Term
Long-term Debt (Revolving Credit Facility) 36,624 22,893 30,056 29,056
Provision for Employee Termination Benefits 239 - - -
Future Income Tax Liability 14,541 13,212 16,517 21,061
Non-Controlling Interest - - - -
Subtotal Liabilities 172,513 224,377 223,986 247,630
Shareholder's Equity
Common Shares 187,151 267,499 268,199 269,049
Contributed Surplus 867 383 383 383
Accumulated Other Comprehensive 933 (15,419) (15,419) (15,419)
Retained Earnings (Deficit) 42,959 51,073 85,247 134,465
Shareholder's Equity 231,910 303,537 338,410 388,478
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 65 of 183
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 66 of 183 Alliance Grain Traders Inc.
Agri-Products/Processing
Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM.US USD 30-Jun 35.81 637 22,822 11,526 34,348 11.7 10.7 10.2 8.9 8.9 8.4 33.6 1.6 1.8%
Bunge Limited BG.US USD 31-Dec 72.88 147 10,728 4,264 14,992 17.6 12.3 11.2 10.3 8.0 7.5 28.4 0.9 1.2%
GrainCorp Ltd. GNC.AU AUD 30-Sep 7.98 198 1,583 240 1,823 20.1 11.8 11.6 8.6 6.3 6.3 13.2 1.2 3.1%
Monsanto Co. MON.US USD 31-Aug 67.53 536 36,195 138 36,333 28.0 23.8 20.1 14.3 12.2 10.7 0.4 3.6 1.7%
Syngenta AG SYNN.VX CHF 31-Dec 308.90 93 28,631 1,597 30,228 19.7 15.7 13.9 12.4 10.4 9.5 5.3 3.8 --
The Andersons, Inc. ANDE.US USD 31-Dec 48.68 19 901 515 1,417 14.0 12.6 12.0 12.1 8.8 8.5 36.4 2.0 0.9%
Viterra VT.CA CAD 31-Oct 11.34 372 4,126 1,518 5,644 23.7 13.1 14.4 10.9 7.8 8.1 26.9 1.1 0.9%
Group Average 19.3 14.3 13.3 11.1 8.9 8.4
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. AGT.CA CAD 31-Dec 23.25 20 464 93 557 23.3 8.2 6.6 n.m. 6.4 5.1 16.7 1.5 2.4%
Notes:
1.) All figures are in CAD unless otherwise noted.
2.) All estimates are from Thomson except AGT and VT are Raymond James estimates.
3.) P/E Values > 30.0x and EV/EBITDA multiples > 30.0x have been discarded (n.m.)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Canada Research | Page 67 of 183
Risks
Weather risk–Weather conditions significantly impact size and quality of the crop, and
in turn, impact the volumes handled and processed by AGT. AGT’s dual origin strategy is
meant to mitigate the weather risk.
Transportation and Transloading–AGT is dependent on third parties and container
availability for the transportation of its products. In Canada, a large portion of AGT’s
products are transported by rail, with another significant portion by road. In Turkey,
AGT’s products are transported exclusively by road. As the majority of AGT’s products
are exported, AGT also relies on shipping companies and vessel space. All exported
products also pass through third party transloading facilities to facilitate their final
containerization for export. Strikes, work stoppages, labour disputes, failure or
substandard performance of equipment or other interruptions to the rail or road
networks, haulage companies, transloading facilities or shipping companies used by AGT
and limited container availability may have a material adverse effect on the business,
financial condition and results of operations of AGT.
Distribution and Supply Contracts–AGT typically does not enter into formal long-term
agreements with clients, distributors, or suppliers. As a result, such parties may, without
notice or penalty, terminate their relationship with AGT at any time. In addition, even if
such parties should decide to continue their relationship with AGT, there can be no
guarantee that the consideration or other terms of such contracts will continue on the
same basis. If any of these clients chose to terminate or alter their relationship with AGT
that could have a negative effect on the company’s business.
Reliance on Key Personnel–AGT is dependent on the abilities, experience and efforts of
its senior management. The business could be negatively impacted should any of these
persons leave, in particular CEO Mr. Murad Al-Katib.
M&A Risk–AGT’s growth-through-acquisition strategy exposes the company to M&A
risk in the event that it does not succeed in achieving a certain level of synergies.
Specifically, these expansions expose the company to new geographic, regulatory,
industry, operating and financial risks.
Foreign Exchange Risk – A significant proportion of AGT’s revenues are generated in US
dollars, while its costs are incurred in Canadian dollars and Turkish lira. As a result, AGT
is exposed to currency exchange rate risks. A significant adjustment to the exchange
rate may adversely impact the company’s results from operations.
Company Citations
Company Name Ticker Exchange Currency Closing Price RJ Rating RJ Entity
Agrium Inc. AGU NYSE NC
Viterra Inc. VT TSX C$ 11.34 NC
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for
rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be approved for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not
covered.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
®
RAYMOND JAMES
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 31 and Analyst Certification on page 32.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 69 of 183
Table of Contents
Investment Overview.......................................................................................................................... 70
Company Overview............................................................................................................................. 71
Industry Analysis................................................................................................................................. 81
Company Strategy............................................................................................................................... 84
Risks .................................................................................................................................................... 97
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 70 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Investment Overview
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 71 of 183
Company Overview
Extraction Technology
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 72 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Low temperature
mechanical pressing
Extraction
Patented and
patent pending
processes
70% 30%
Proprietary Hexane
Solvent
non-toxic & non-volatile toxic & volatile
(i) Oil
(i) Oil
Output (ii) Meal
(ii) Protein
(iii) Protein
Revenue-COGS
$1,144 $120
Differential/tonne
Source: BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd., Canola Council of Canada, Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 73 of 183
Business Mix
BXI currently produces two products at its Saskatoon plant: canola oil and canola meal.
In 2010, the company generated revenues of $2.3 mln and $1.0 mln, respectively, with
the bulk of sales going into domestic markets (see Exhibits 3 and 4).
2,000
Oil
Revenue $ (in thousands)
1,000
500
70%
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 74 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Products Overview
Below we review BXI’s portfolio of products and their respective end-market
applications.
Canola Oil—Canola oil is primarily used for human consumption in cooking, with
the balance of typically lower grade product used to manufacture bio-diesel. Canola
oil has become increasingly popular in Canada and Japan, comprising ~50% of the
vegetable oil market in these countries. Other markets include Mexico, for instance,
where canola oil currently accounts for ~25% of the vegetable oil market. BXI
distributes all of its canola oil through Vancouver-based Shafer Commodities based
on a 10-year agreement signed in January 2009. Shafer subsequently re-sells the
oils to downstream refiners for further processing, packaging, and final sale. Pricing
is based on the market price at time of sale, adjusted upwards to account for any
specialty features of the BXI product.
Canola Meal—Canola meal is used primarily in animal feed (i.e. livestock,
aquaculture) as a source of protein and fiber. BXI’s meal is currently considered a
premium product based upon the un-denatured quality of its protein versus
conventional canola meal. However, upon commissioning of the plant’s protein
isolate production, it is expected that BXI’s meal protein content will drop by
roughly half. While this will have a negative effect on the company’s associated
meal pricing, management is confident this drop will be far outweighed by the sale
of incremental protein isolates. In 2008, BXI secured a 10-year agreement with the
above-noted Shafer Commodities to distribute all of the canola meal produced at its
Saskatoon plant.
Canola Protein—Canola-based protein isolates are not currently available in the
specialty protein market due to conventional crushing technology that inhibits their
extraction and limits the economic feasibility. BXI’s unique extraction process, as
described previously, has allowed it to achieve self-affirmed GRAS status for its first
two new canola-based protein isolate entrants into the US market. It has also
developed a variation of its technology aimed at third-party licensing.
ISOLEXX—A protein isolate with roughly 92% (as-is) purity level, ISOLEXX has a
strong nutritional profile and functional characteristics that position it well to
compete in the human food market. In particular, the protein is well suited for
applications in sports nutrition and weight loss, segments traditionally
dominated by whey and soy proteins. ISOLEXX delivers over 100% of the
recommended essential amino acids and has a high 95% level of digestibility
(see Exhibit 5).
VITALEXX—A hydrolyzed protein isolate with +87% (as-is) purity, aimed at the
nutritional beverage and snack market for use in protein-fortified beverages
and energy bars. What makes this product particularly attractive in these
protein-fortified products is its high digestibility (>98%), delivery of 117% of
essential amino acids, solubility, and minimal effect on processing.
Protein Concentrates from Toasted Meal—In 2009, BXI filed a patent for a
unique variation of its technology for production of protein concentrates (up to
70% purity) from toasted oilseed meal produced in conventional, high-
temperatures crushing facilities. This process allows for conventional operators
to produce protein concentrate end product for sale into specialty feed
markets at 3-5x the price of regular meal end product. Because this protein
would not compete with BXI’s isolate products in the human food market, its
easy application within a wide variety of crushing facilities used in N.A. and
Europe make it highly attractive for third-party licensing, in our view.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 75 of 183
ISOLEXX VITALEXX
► Made with non-GMO canola seed
► Made with non-GMO canola seed
► Spray dried tan powder appearance
► Spray dried tan powder appearance
► Characteristic flavour
Description ► Bland flavour
► pH = 7+/- 0.5
► pH = 7+/- 0.5
► Solubility (water) > 98%
► Solubility > 90% at 1g/100 ml pH7
► Colour in solution = tan/transparent
► Bakery product - bread rolls, cakes, cookies, etc ► Nutritional beverages
► Meat products - hot dogs, sausages, baked meat ► Healthy food applications to improve absorption and digestibility
End Use
► Vegetarian food products and meat analogues ► Nutritional and protein bars
► Nutritional and high protein bars, drinks & supplements ► Infant formulas
► Protein = 88.1% (as is) or 91% (dry basis) ► Amino acids (typical)= 82% (as is) or 87% (dry basis)
► High amino acid score = ~ 1.15 ► High amino acid score = ~ 1.15
Technical Data ► Fat (acid hydrolysis) = 1.8% ► Fat (acid hydrolysis) < 0.2%
► Saturated Fat = 0.0% ► Saturated Fat = 0.0%
► Cholesterol = 0.0% ► Cholesterol = 0.0%
► Excellent water solubility vs. soy & pea proteins ► Excellent and balanced amino acid profile comparable to whey
► Emulsifying and foaming, comparable to whey and egg proteins ► High in threonine, an amino acid important for brain activity
Functional
► Excellent gel forming properties and firmness ► Low foaming
Characteristics
► Shelf Life = 12 mo. from date of manufacture ► Minimal effect on processing
► Rich in muscle building amino acids ► Shelf Life = 12 mo. from date of manufacture
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 76 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Egg White
Egg White
ISOLEXX
Canola V ITALEXX
Whe y M ilk (w he y)
Soy
Be e f
Cas s e in
Cas s e in Be e f
Pe anuts Pe a
Black Be ans
Pe a Supe rior prote in e fficie ncy Supe rior am ino acid profile in
Kidne y
e xhibite d by Canola prote ins ISOLEXX & V ITALEXX
Soy Pinto Be ans
Pe anuts
Whe at
Whe at
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0 0.5 1 1.5
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 77 of 183
Target Markets
BXI’s initial focus in the protein additive market is high-end existing applications,
including the sports, infant and child, and adult (therapeutic) nutrition sectors. Given
the positive attributes described herein and recent discussions with customers,
management is confident that its canola-based isolates will initially support a ‘soy-like’
price point (~$5,500/mt). Longer-term, as market acceptance for its products improves
and the company demonstrates its abilities as a reliable supplier, management believes
it will be able to sell into the premium animal-based protein markets (i.e. whey, casein)
where prices can fetch $9,000/mt to $12,000/mt.
BXI is relying heavily on its distribution partner HELM to facilitate new customer
development. According to recent management commentary, the company is currently
working with ‘30+ customers’ that range from small niche producers to major multi-
nationals, most of whom have been introduced via HELM (see below).
Key Partners
BXI has enlisted the help of several key partners at this juncture to help facilitate its
protein commercialization plans. These include:
HELM AG—BXI has signed a 10-year agreement with global chemical and nutrition
conglomerate HELM AG for purchase and distribution of at least 70% of the protein
isolate product produced at its Saskatoon plant. Pricing for HELM’s end-product is
set by BXI (thus protecting this nascent market), with BXI in return agreeing to avoid
direct competition in the European market.
Viterra—BXI currently secures all of its feedstock (canola seed) through a 10-year
supply agreement with Viterra (VT-TSX), Canada’s largest grain handler. Under the
agreement, Viterra will supply 40,000 tpy of Canada Number 1 canola.
Shafer Commodities—BXI secured a 10-year agreement with the Shafer
Commodities for distribution of all canola meal and a portion of canola oil produced
at its Saskatoon plant. The agreement stipulates premium canola meal pricing
based on BXI product meeting pre-determined specifications. With the addition of
protein isolates the protein content within meal will drop to roughly half of what it
typically contains now, which will impact the historical premium pricing. Oil pricing
is to be based on market prices, adjusted upwards where possible based on the
specialty features of the product.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 78 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Company History
BioExx was founded in 2003 with the intention to develop and commercialize low
temperature extraction technologies. The company effected a public listing in 2006
through a $14 mln capital pool company reverse takeover. BXI is currently completing
Phase II of its protein development process (see Exhibit 8) and is expected to launch its
protein isolate in 2011. As previously mentioned, BXI plans to expand beyond the
current Saskatoon facility once commercial viability of its technology has been proven.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 79 of 183
Management Team
Christopher D. Carl, President and CEO—Mr. Carl has over 20 years of experience in
project finance, plant construction and mill management with a focus on
commercializing new technologies. Prior to BXI, Mr. Carl spent 11 years developing and
operating The CanFibre Group Ltd., which utilized laboratory-scale technology
developed by a Canadian Government sponsored organization. This was preceded by
several years at a Canadian subsidiary of Tenneco Inc. producing environmentally
desirable bleaching chemicals for the pulp & paper industry.
Chris Schnarr, CFO—Chris Schnarr has 17 years of experience founding, managing, and
advising successful high growth companies in a variety of areas including strategy,
corporate finance, capital markets, corporate development, and operations. Mr. Schnarr
was a founder of Wireless Matrix Corporation in 1993. He is also the founder and a
Director of Endura Capital Inc., a private tax, risk advisory, and wealth management firm
with offices in Toronto and Montreal.
Dean Pittman, VP of Engineering—Mr. Pittman has over 30 years of experience, much
of that within project construction and engineering. Most recently, Dean was the
project director for construction of a $100 mln research and discovery facility for Sanofi
Pasteur. Prior to that, he oversaw over $700 mln in capital projects and start-ups as
director of engineering and construction services for pharmaceutical company Apotex.
Dean has also held similar engineering and quality control positions with the likes of
Proctor & Gamble and Molson Breweries. He holds a Mechanical Engineering degree
from McGill University.
Samah Garringer, VP of Product and Business Development—Ms. Garringer has spent
more than 20 years of experience focused on business development, sales,
administration and finance at retail companies, technology and manufacturing start-ups
in Canada and Brazil. Prior to BioExx, she spent 4 years in charge of a plastics-related
import/export business in Brazil as well as holding senior management positions for
over 10 years at a retail company with over 170 locations in Canada.
Clinton Smith, VP of Operations—Clinton Smith has over 20 years of senior
management experience in the food industry within key roles including operations
management, sales, capital improvements and procurement. Over a nine year period,
Mr. Smith held the role of VP of Canadian Operations for the food supply operations of
one of Canada’s largest grocery chains, following other similar VP of Operations roles at
regionally-focused Canadian companies.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 80 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
BioExx shares trade in the TSX under the ticker symbol “BXI”. As of March 10, 2011,
there were 191,771,575 common shares outstanding of which ~5.6% were owned by
the company insiders and ~20.1% by institutions (see Exhibit 9). CEO Christopher Carl is
the largest single shareholder with 4.7% of shares outstanding, implying that no single
shareholder owns more than 5.0%.
Shareholder Summary
Shares Held /
% O.S.
Controlled
Management. Directors and Other Insiders Insiders,
Carl, Christopher D. 8,951,497 4.67% 5.6%
Ollerhead, William W. 1,481,402 0.77%
MacDonald, John 127,000 0.07% Institutions,
Schnarr, Chris 160,000 0.08% 20.1%
Lacey, Peter Allen 100,000 0.05%
Total Management & Insiders 10,819,899 5.64%
Corporations / Institutions
AGF Management Ltd. 11,096,563 5.79%
Winslow Management Company, LLC 6,500,000 3.39%
Sprott Asset Management 4,000,900 2.09%
Invesco Trimark Ltd. 3,663,800 1.91%
Jupiter Asset Management Limited 2,107,286 1.10% Other,
Top Corporations / Institutions 27,368,549 14.27% 74.3%
Total Corporations / Institutions 38,502,296 20.08%
Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ, BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd., Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 81 of 183
Industry Analysis
Below we highlight several industry attributes and trends that influence BXI’s core
business:
1. Protein Additives Poised for Growth; Strong Plant-Based Fundamentals
Global macro fundamentals support robust growth in the protein additive market, in our
view. Specifically, market research firm Global Industry Analysts (GIA) forecasts that
global demand will grow at a 6.0% CAGR over the next 5 years, reaching US$24.5 billion
by 2015 underpinned by a strong shift in consumer preferences toward healthy
lifestyles, most notably in U.S. and Europe. At present, market research indicates that
animal-based proteins (i.e. whey, casein, egg) represent ~60% of the global sector, while
plant-based varieties (i.e. soy, pea) account for the residual ~40%. More recently,
however, plant-based proteins have been experiencing even stronger momentum.
Consistent with this view, GIA estimates that plant-based proteins will grow at a 7.3%
CAGR for period 2000-2014 (see Exhibit 10). Key factors behind this trend include:
Cost / Economics—Plant based proteins boast very high production efficiency ratios
that translate into lower relative cost of production. For example, one acre of land
is capable of yielding 356 lbs of soy protein versus only 20 lbs of beef protein. In
other words, soy protein is ~17.0x times more efficient than beef protein. This delta
has enabled manufacturers to bring protein price points down significantly, which
are reflected in end-market prices (see Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 10: Global Protein Market Exhibit 11: Protein Additive Pricing
Plant Prote in: 7.3% CAGR
25,000
Anim al/Fis h Prote in: 5.5% CAGR
Cons olidate d: 6.0% CAGR
20,000
$12.80 $13.20
Price CND/kg
US$ Millions
15,000 $10.60
10,000
$6.00
5,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2011 2013 2015 Soy W hey Casein Egg-W hite
Plant Protein Animal/Fish Protein
Source: Global Industry Analysts, Frost & Sullivan, Canada Food Inspection, Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 82 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
BXI’s canola protein isolates allow the company to benefit from strong plant-based
protein market fundamentals, attractive economics, and increasing health and safety-
related consumer concerns. Furthermore, BXI’s canola-based isolates exhibit superior
allergenicity traits compared to soy, while their functionality could, in our view, prove
them to be a substitute for higher-value whey and even casein proteins over time.
Exhibit 12: Production Energy Efficiencies Exhibit 13: Protein Land Efficiencies per Acre
500 400
356
415
Energy Output vs. Input (Kcals)
400
Protein Production (lbs/acre)
300
265
300
211
192
200
200
100 78 82
100
45
11 18 21 20
4 6
0 0
Pork Beef Eggs Chicken Milk Soy Beef Meat Eggs Milk Legum es Corn Rice Soy
Source: Solae, FAO/WHO/UNICEF/ Protein Advisory Group (2004), Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 83 of 183
Competitive Landscape
BXI arguably has few direct competitors given its unique, proprietary technology
surrounding canola-based protein extraction. That being said, there are many specialty
protein manufacturers, both small and large, that will ultimately compete head-to-head
against BXI’s ISOLEXX and VITALEXX products. Initially, these companies will be soy
protein manufacturers, as this is the market segment and price-point where BXI has its
sights set. Over time, as the company’s products gain market acceptance and migrate up
the value chain, we also believe that whey and casein protein manufacturers will
become more relevant competitors.
While Burcon is often cited as BXI’s most direct competitor, we are not convinced, given
the stark differences in business model and risk profile. Specifically, while we
acknowledge that Burcon is also focused on canola-based protein extraction technology,
the company has elected to license its extraction technology to Archer Daniels Midland
under a 20 year agreement wherein ADM is responsible for all production, marketing
and selling of protein isolates world wide. ADM bears all the risk of building commercial
facilities and proving commercial viability, in exchange for reaping the greatest potential
rewards. Taken together, we list below specialty protein manufacturers we deem to be
potential competitors to BXI (see Exhibit 14).
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 84 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Company Strategy
Build It & They Will Come—In our view, BXI has developed a potentially disruptive, new
technology with tremendous market potential. Rather than license this technology to an
industry bellwether, as might be expected for a relatively early stage venture, BXI has
elected to go it alone, prove out the technology commercially, and develop the canola
protein additive market. This is presumably all in order to reap a larger piece of the
proverbial pie assuming its success. Exhibit 15 illustrates company’s execution to date,
as well as some key future milestones.
Scalable Plant Footprint—BXI plans to expand its processing capacity in order to
capitalize on strong global demand fundamentals for protein additives. Initially, the
company has earmarked plans for five plants totaling 800,000 tonnes in capacity, all
based upon a standardized, scalable plant design to facilitate a quick roll out (see Exhibit
16). Beyond its current Saskatoon plant and its next plant planned for North Dakota, BXI
has indicated it would like to take advantage of strong rapeseed supply in Europe and
canola in Australia by locating two or three of its plants within these regions. We note,
however, that BXI remains prudent with regards to its plant expansion strategy and
timeline given that it is, for all intents and purposes, creating a new market for its
products.
Exhibit 15: Saskatoon Plant Milestones Exhibit 16: BXI Capacity Expansion Plan
In Progress 300
First Human Food Shipment
Expected date:
FY2011
200
Continuing Commercial Validation Current
capacity
Minot Groudbreaking 100 40,000 tpy
In Progress
Expected date:
Minot Startup FY2011
Saskatoon Minot Plant Plant # 3 Plant # 4 Plant # 5
Plant
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 85 of 183
Conventional Meal Protein Concentrate Canola Oil Protein Super-Concentrate Protein Isolates
ASP: $250/tonne Purity: 60-70% ASP: $1,000/tonne Purity: 70-85% Purity: +90%
ASP: $1,000-$1,500/tonne ASP: $2,500-$3,500/tonne ASP: $6,000-$12,000/tonne
Through JV
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 86 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Partnering with Key Global Players—Rather than attempt to develop the canola-
based protein isolate market on its own from the ground up, BXI has chosen to
partner with key global players, most notably through a 10-year agreement with
global chemical and nutrition conglomerate HELM AG. This helps to significantly
mitigate execution risk, in our view, as the company works to develop end markets
and customers for canola-based protein isolates. While the HELM agreement
relates to sales into countries that follow the US GRAS approval system, this
association has, in our view, helped open up the ~30 other customer discussions
that management has indicated are ongoing. We believe such partnerships will also
prove critical to BXI’s exploration of further applications of its technology in the
pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors in the future.
N.A. and European Focus; ROW through Joint Venture—BXI is currently focused on
developing and expanding in the N.A. and European markets, both through its plant
footprint and end-market distribution agreements. Over the long term, the
company plans to expand through the rest-of-the-world (ROW) by establishing joint
ventures and strategic partnerships.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 87 of 183
Critical to any reasonable BXI forecast at this stage of development is determining: (i)
the timeframe over which full-scale, commercial protein production will be achieved at
Saskatoon; (ii) the timing associated with subsequent processing plant construction/
operation (i.e. Minot); (iii) protein isolate pricing trends; and (iv) canola crush margins.
In this context, below we highlight recent developments at Saskatoon, management’s
current guidance (where applicable), and how this guidance compares to our current
forecast (see Exhibit 18):
Operational Hiccups Give Reason for Caution—BXI has run into several ‘hiccups’ in
recent months during its attempt to achieve full-scale, continuous protein
production at Saskatoon. Initially, vendor-related equipment challenges cropped
up, but were subsequently resolved. More recently, unexpected ‘foaming and
emulsion issues’ (not experienced at the pilot stage) have prevented management
from scaling up protein production—highlighting the ongoing technical risk
associated with commercializing the company’s promising new technology. Coupled
with weak crush margins in recent months, management has elected to keep the
crush portion of the plant at low rates, with 1Q11 utilization reportedly hovering
around 10.0%, far below initial guidance and expectations. As of mid-March,
management indicated that a temporary filter solution had been implemented to
rectify the foaming issue with ‘positive initial indications’.
Phase II Completion Expected ‘Mid-Year’—BXI’s roadmap to commercial validation
is often described in three distinct phases (see Exhibit 18). With Phase I already
complete—marked by the confirmation of GRAS certification in Nov-2009—we are
now observing the company’s Phase II progress. Despite recent hiccups,
management believes the conclusion of Phase II is still achievable by ‘mid-year’, or
soon thereafter, which culminates in both the crush and protein lines operating at
50.0% utilization.
RJ: Given recent technical challenges, we believe it is prudent to adopt conservative
timing assumptions. We therefore assume that full-scale commercial production
does not occur until 4Q11.
Minot Plans Prepared, Ready to Go—BXI recently indicated that its plans for a
second plant in Minot, North Dakota are largely ready to go, with only a final cost
study still to be completed. Management also stressed, however, that they would
not press ahead with its funding efforts for Minot until Saskatoon has reached full-
scale commercial production. Construction for Minot expected to begin in 2Q11
and take ~16 months.
RJ: We are cautious about Minot’s timing given recent hiccups at Saskatoon. We
therefore assume that construction begins in late 3Q11, with commercial
production starting in 1Q13. Given the uncertainty still present, we note that
Saskatoon and Minot are the only two plants we model at this time, as we prefer to
wait for better visibility for plants #3 to #5.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 88 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Saskatoon
(1) (3) (5) (7) (9)
(11)
Protein Prices; Start Low, Migrate Higher—Protein price assumptions are another
critical valuation driver. Management has stressed in recent quarters that initial
protein sales will likely benchmark well vs. other plant-related proteins such as soy,
thereby capturing a price point of ~$5,500/mt. Longer-term, as market acceptance
of improves, and BXI demonstrates its ability as a reliable supplier, management
expects prices to migrate higher toward select animal-based proteins such as whey
and casein which sell for $9,000-$12,000/mt.
RJ: We assume that ISOLEXX initially captures ~$5,500/mt, followed by incremental
$250-$500 annual step-ups. Long-term, we remain more conservative than
guidance, assuming that ISOLEXX reaches premium plant-based protein prices
(~$7,500/mt) by 2016. For VITALEXX, we assume similar initial pricing, but apply a
10.0% premium in 2013 and beyond to account for the incremental premium
market opportunities (i.e. pediatric nutrition).
Feedstock Costs & Crush Margin—Canola industry crush margins have been
relatively depressed in recent quarters due to the sharp rise in canola seed prices
relative to canola oil and meal. Despite modest improvements in recent months, we
have elected to keep crush margins at ~$55/mt through 2012, before stepping it up
to a long-term $60/mt average.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 89 of 183
Revenue by Product
Canola Oil 2,320 5,090 16,781 48,245 48,245 41,952
Canola Meal 1,010 1,997 2,494 7,481 7,481 6,733
Isolexx Protein - 1,705 16,720 52,440 59,280 63,840
Vitalexx Protein - - 20,900 72,105 81,510 87,780
Total Revenue 3,330 8,792 56,895 180,271 196,516 200,305
250,000 100,000
Isolexx Protein
Vitalexx Protein
Revenue by Product ($000s)
60,000
150,000
40,000
100,000
20,000
50,000
-
- (20,000)
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 90 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Capital Structure
Balance Sheet Risk Rising (Despite Saskatoon Burn Slowing)—BXI’s balance sheet risk is
rising despite a slowing burn rate associated with its Saskatoon facility upgrades.
Specifically, the company ended 2010 with $16.6 mln in cash and $14.1 mln in net
working capital. According to management, the balance of Phase II capital spending is
now less than $3.5 mln, which should enable the company to reach up to 50.0%
utilization by mid-year, including an associated increase in ISOLEXX production. That
being said, we expect an additional $10.0 – 15.0 mln is still required in 2011 to complete
Phase III—a necessary step in order to initiate first VITALEXX production by 1Q12.
North Dakota Funding Still Outstanding—Further capital will also be required to fund
the development and construction of its second plant in Minot, North Dakota.
Management currently estimates the total cost of this plant at $85.0 mln, up vs. the
$60.0 - $65.0 mln originally anticipated (see Exhibit 21). With a 50/50 debt-to-equity
financing split proposed, we calculate BXI will require an additional $42.5 mln in equity
to fund this project. That being said, because the firm’s Saskatoon plant remains largely
unencumbered, management hopes to leverage its equity in this asset to secure ~$20.0
mln in additional funds for North Dakota. We expect the balance of funding, roughly
$22.5 mln, will need to be raised via equity issuance. In terms of debt funding, the
company is actively negotiating a $24.0 mln debt facility with local state banks and
continues to evaluate several options (i.e. project financing) for the balance required.
Timing Uncertain, but Equity Raise Likely During 2Q11—Given the timing and capital
requirements outlined above, we expect BXI will be looking to raise ~$35.0 mln in equity
capital during late 2Q11. While the company has the ability to dial-down near-term
capital spending plans and prolong its current resources, timing remains of the essence,
in our view. Management was clear in recent commentary that it will advance North
Dakota only after the company has proven up Saskatoon. At present, this is expected to
occur during late 2Q. However, should this demonstration extend well into 3Q, we
believe that BXI’s current flexibility will be substantially reduced.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 91 of 183
We are initiating coverage on BXI with an Outperform rating and $2.50 target price.
Based upon the stock’s Apr-20-11 close, our target price represents a 43.7% total return.
Given the company’s early stage of development, we employ a DCF analysis to derive
our target price (see Exhibit 22).
Saskatoon & Minot NAV Pegged @ $3.27—As illustrated below, our DCF analysis
for BXI’s Saskatoon and Minot plants yields a $3.27 NAV, with roughly ~70.0% or
$2.25 of this value attributed to the latter facility. As noted in the prior
discussion(s), key assumptions in this valuation approach are that: (i) BXI
successfully demonstrates commercial viability at Saskatoon; and (ii) BioExx
successfully raises $35.0 mln in equity capital to fund the development of Minot
and the balance of capital spending (i.e. Phase III) at Saskatoon.
Commercialization Risk Still Present; Watching Milestones—Notwithstanding BXI’s
tremendous opportunities, we cannot ignore the fact that the company is still
attempting to commercialize its technology. In this context, we believe the balance
of 2011 will be a critical period, one wherein the company must clearly
demonstrate the commercial viability of its protein extraction process. To do so will
be a game-changing event for the company, in our view. Failure to do so, on the
other hand, would be severely detrimental to the company’s outlook and share
price. To accommodate this near-term risk, we have risk-adjusted our NAV with a
25.0% discount. As the company hits key production milestones over the next few
months, we will to take appropriate action and reduce this rate.
Large Option Value: Paying Little for North Dakota; Zero for Future Expansion—
Presuming BXI's commercialization efforts are successful, we calculate that the
market is currently attributing very little value to Minot (~1/3 of its NAV), and
effectively zero for the company’s future plant expansions. We forecast that each
plant could potentially add $3.00-$5.00/share to our consolidated NAV. But again,
we prefer to see definitive evidence of commercialization and better clarity on
potential timing before we start incorporating these plants into our forecasts.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 92 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Equity Assumptions
Beta (B) 1.25 NPV of FCFF: 780,559
Risk Free Rate (Rf) 3.5% Net Debt (FY11E): 67,930
Market Risk Premium (Rm) 6.5% Equity Value: 712,628
Cost of Equity: Rf + B(Rm) 11.6% Shares o/s (FY11E, f.d.): 218.0
Debt Assumptions
Weighted Cost of Debt (Rd): 6.25%
Tax Rate (t): 30.0% DCF OUTPUT & VALUATION
Cost of Debt: Rd(1-t): 4.4% DCF Valuation ($/share): $3.27
Debt /Total Cap*: 25.0%
WACC: 9.78% 9.3% Risk-Adustment: 25%
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0% Risk-Adjusted Value/Share: $2.47
* Estimated 5 year avg. Debt/Capital
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 93 of 183
Earnings b/f Interest & Taxes (EBIT) (8,046) (14,666) (15,529) 8,157
Income Taxes
Current - - - -
Future - - - -
Subtotal Taxes - - - -
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 94 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Current Assets
Cash 14,101 16,629 35,537 5,987
Restricted Cash - 79 79 79
Accounts Receivables 591 309 2,245 4,676
GST recoverable 672 408 408 408
Amounts receivable 50 - - -
Investment tax credit receivable 943 2,328 2,328 2,328
SR&ED credits receivable 77 298 298 298
Loans Receivable - - - -
Prepaid Expenses 74 96 409 4,552
Inventory 199 164 2,491 5,843
Total Current Assets 16,707 20,312 43,796 24,172
Non-Current Assets
Long-term prepaid expenses 46 55 55 55
Equipment Deposits 4,214 855 1,355 1,355
Intangible Assets 584 757 757 757
Property Plant and Equipment 20,261 63,156 98,506 155,006
Restricted Cash 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Total Non-current Asset 26,105 65,823 101,673 158,173
Total Assets 42,812 86,135 145,469 182,345
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable and Accrued Liabilities 5,471 5,335 5,613 10,132
Due to shareholder - - - -
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 377 749 322 322
Current portion of Leased Inducement 21 27 34 42
Derivative Instruments - 53 - -
Total Current Liabilities 5,869 6,164 5,969 10,496
Long-term Liabilities
Long-Term Debt 3,675 6,517 49,595 74,595
Leasehold Inducement 27 - - -
Total Long Term Liablilities 3,702 6,517 49,595 74,595
Total Liabilities 9,571 12,681 55,564 85,091
Non-controlling interest - - - -
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 46,724 98,385 130,785 134,785
Shares to be issued - - - -
Warrants 471 - - -
Contributed Surplus 3,030 7,109 7,109 7,109
Retained Earnings (Deficit) (16,984) (32,039) (47,989) (44,640)
Total Shareholders Equity 33,241 73,454 89,905 97,254
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 42,812 86,135 145,469 182,345
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 95 of 183
Operating Activities
Net Loss for the year (8,172) (15,055) (15,929) 3,369
Changes not involving cash: - - - -
Non-controlling Interest 5 - - -
Stock-based Compensation 1,273 4,383 3,800 4,000
Leasehold Inducement (15) (21) (20) (20)
Accretion of Deferred Financing Charges 6 7 7 8
Accrued Interest on Long-Term Debt - 171 151 -
Write-off of PP&E 2 - - -
Unrealized Loss on Derivative Instruments - - - -
Interest Expense Paid in Shares - - - -
Rent - - - -
Amortization of PP&E and Intangible Assets 604 1,148 1,650 3,500
Subtotal (6,297) (9,367) (10,341) 10,857
Changes in non-cash working capital balances (200) 2,056 (4,297) (5,408)
Cash Flow from Operating Activities (6,496) (7,311) (14,638) 5,450
Financing Activities
Increase in Leasehold Inducement - - - -
Net Proceeds of Long-term Debt 3,639 4,030 42,500 25,000
Repayments of Long-term Debt (147) (200) - -
Redemption of Non-controlling Interest (100) - - -
Exercise of Options and Warrants 8,675 2,544 400 -
Pivate Placements, Net of Issue Costs 18,817 51,874 30,000 -
Cash received on RTO - - - -
Cash received prior to completion of RTO - - - -
Share Issuance Costs (11) (3,532) (1,800) -
Dividends Paid of Preference Shares (7) - - -
Redemption of Preferred Shares - - - -
Cash Flow from Financing Activities 30,866 54,715 71,100 25,000
Investing Activities
Increase in Equipment Deposits (1,949) (1,361) (500) -
Increase in Long-term Prepaid Expenses (35) (9) - -
Decrease to Advances Receivable - - - -
Increase to Intangible Assets (170) (266) - -
Increase in Restricted Cash (900) (79) - -
Proceeds on Disposal of Equipment 1 - - -
SR&ED Credit Applied as Reduction in Equipment - - - -
Additions of Property, Plant and Equipment (11,549) (43,214) (37,000) (60,000)
Cash Flow from Investing Activities (14,603) (44,929) (37,500) (60,000)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 96 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. BXI.CA CAD 31-Dec 1.74 174 303 (10) 292 n.m n.m n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. (3.5) 4.8 --
Notes:
1.) All figures are in CAD unless otherwise noted.
2.) All estimates are from Thomson except BXI are Raymond James estimates.
3.) P/E Values > 30.0x and EV/EBITDA multiples > 30.0x have been discarded (n.m.)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Canada Research | Page 97 of 183
Risks
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 98 of 183 BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd.
Company Citations
Company Name Ticker Exchange Currency Closing Price RJ Rating RJ Entity
Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM NYSE NC
Molson Coors Brewing Company TAP NC
Procter & Gamble Co. PG NYSE NC
Tenneco Inc. TEN NYSE NC
Viterra Inc. VT TSX C$ 11.34 NC
Wireless Matrix Corp. WRX.T TSX NC
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for
rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be approved for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not
covered.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
®
RAYMOND JAMES
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 34 and Analyst Certification on page 35.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 100 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
Table of Contents
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 101 of 183
Investment Overview
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Canada Research | Page 102 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 103 of 183
Company Overview
GLG is a leading global producer of high grade stevia extract, a zero-calorie, 100%
natural sweetener derived from the stevia plant. GLG is headquartered in Vancouver,
British Columbia, and operates vertically integrated assets in China through its various
subsidiaries. The company is dual-listed on the TSX and NASDAQ under the symbols
“GLG” and “GLGL” respectively.
About Stevia
Stevia is a shrub indigenous to the rain forests of Paraguay and Brazil that has been used
as a natural sweetener for hundreds of years. The plant is now grown in Brazil,
Paraguay, Uruguay, and parts of Central America, as well as Thailand, China and the
United States. China currently accounts for ~80.0% of global commercial production.
The leaf of the stevia plant contains sweet-tasting compounds known as glycosides,
including Stevioside (‘STV’) and Rebaudioside A (‘RA’), that can reach sweetness levels
200x that of sugar, but with zero calories, zero carbohydrates, and a zero glycemic index
(ideal for diabetics). RA, the sweeter of these two compounds, is often extracted and
purified into a higher grade for use in the food and beverage industry. On December 17,
2008, the FDA granted Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) status to RA at purity levels
of 95% (known as RA 95) or higher for use in food and beverages (see Exhibit 1).
European Union approval is expected this year.
1970s ► Stevia is introduced in Japan and quickly gained acceptance, capturing ~40% of the Japanese sweetener market
1990s ► Introduced in the US but quickly banned by FDA following a "trade complaint" from an anonymous firm
Dec. 2008 ► FDA GRAS approved in the United States following comprehensive independent studies promoted by Cargill & Merisant
Sep. 2009 ► Approved in France for limited 2-year period ahead of expected EU approval
Stevia is Currently Approved in: U.S., China, Japan, France, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Paraguay, Switzerland
Source: GLG Life Tech Corp., International Stevia Council, Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 104 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
GLG specializes in processing and extracting a variety of stevia grades at differing purity
levels for commercial use. The company is vertically integrated, with R&D, processing
and refining facilities in China, and sales and marketing capabilities based in North
America. GLG has successfully partnered with several large agri-business enterprises for
the sale and distribution of its product, including Cargill, Sugar Australia, Azucarero
Mexico, Agrisystem Private Limited (under Katra Group), FXY and ChemPoint.com for
sale into Australia, China, New Zealand, Mexico, India, US, Europe and the Middle East.
Cargill—Historically, the bulk of GLG’s stevia sales have been to Cargill, an
international provider of food and agricultural products and services. Cargill’s
branded sweetener TRUVIA, which incorporates GLG’s stevia extract, is sold to
major North American beverage companies including Coca-Cola (used in Odwalla
and Vitamin Water products). In 2009, Cargill sales accounted for 90% of GLG
revenues, facilitated through a 10-year supply agreement (see Exhibit 2). More
recently, GLG sales into China and ROW markets have reduced this customer
concentration to less than 50%, a trend we expect to continue given GLG’s strong
growth profile in emerging markets.
ANOC—On December 22, 2010, GLG launched a joint-venture (80% stake) with
China Agriculture and Health Foods Company Limited (“CAHFC”). CAHFC is a parent
company of food and beverage producer Fengyang Xiaogangcun Υongkang Foods
High Tech Co. Ltd. (“FXY”), with whom GLG had established a partnership earlier in
the year. Named ANOC (Dr. Zhang’s All Natural and Zero Calorie) the new joint-
venture is expected to be a significant driver of GLG’s revenue growth. ANOC builds
on GLG’s leading position in the stevia market and CAHFC’s experience in
formulating and testing stevia-based consumer products and its focus is on
developing and distributing natural and zero-calorie food and beverages in China.
Refer to the section ANOC Primer included in this report for more details.
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Operating Facilities
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Processing
GLG has aggressively invested in new leaf and RA80 processing capacity in recent years
to accommodate rapid growth. Specifically, we highlight the firm’s ~8.0x increase in leaf
processing capacity between 2008 and 2010 (see Exhibit 5), requiring a capital
investment of ~C$90 mln.
Stevia Leaf Supply—GLG currently sources 100% of its stevia leaf from Chinese-
based plantations, seeking to take advantage of the country’s low-cost labor,
favourable government support, and strong end-market dynamics. GLG has signed
10-year agreements with the Dongtai and Mingguang county governments, as well
as a 20-year agreement with Juancheng County to secure its stevia leaf supply
within these major growing areas. These agreements provide GLG with the right of
first refusal to purchase all stevia grown in these areas, as well as being the only
firm permitted to process stevia. GLG has developed proprietary strains of stevia
seed that boast RA content (+60%) significantly exceeding the Chinese national
average (~25%). GLG works with the Chinese government to supply its proprietary
stevia seed and seedlings to farmers. Using stevia leaves with higher RA levels
allows the company to yield more stevia extract for the same amount of raw
materials (leaves). In 2010 GLG sourced 100% of its leaf requirements from its
proprietary seeds. The new generation of seeds with higher RA content is making its
way to the growers and GLG expects to realize these cost benefits in F2011 and
F2012. In September 2009, as part of its regional diversification strategy, GLG
signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with the Government of Paraguay to enter
negotiations in that country for the growth and production of stevia. Based upon
recent discussions with management, however, we believe this initiative is currently
on hold, given the capacity built out opportunities in China.
Stevia Leaf RA 80 RA 60
RA 97
45,000 1,600 4,500
3,500
Production Capacity (tpy)
40,000
Production Capacity (tpy)
1,400 4,000
3,000 Production Capacity (tpy)
Production Capacity (tpy)
35,000 3,500
1,200
30,000 2,500 3,000
1,000
25,000 2,000 2,500
800
20,000 2,000
1,500
15,000 600 1,500
1,000
10,000 400 1,000
5,000 200 500 500
0 0 0 0
2008 Current 2008 Current 2008 Current 2008 Current
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Corporate History
GLG Life Tech was formed in 2005 and is based in Vancouver, British Columbia. The
company acquired its first stevia processing facility in 2006 through the purchase of
Quingdao Runde Biotechnology Co Ltd. Strong relationships with the Chinese
government at the provincial and federal level have helped it garner incentives to build
and operate processing plants in stevia growing regions. With the acquisition of AHTD in
2007, the company expanded into research and development of proprietary seeds
designed to result in plants with high RA content. More recently, in December 2010 GLG
announced the aforementioned Chinese food and beverage joint venture ANOC (see
Exhibit 6).
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Management Team
Dr. Luke Zhang, Chairman & CEO—Dr. Zhang has been Chairman of GLG since the
company’s formation in 2005 and CEO since 2008. He has successfully built and
managed a number of firms in the health, food, medical equipment and software
development industries. Dr. Zhang holds a Ph.D. in Pharmacology from Vanderbilt
University in the United States, a Masters of Science in Pharmaceutical Chemistry from
Shanghai First Medical University in China and a Bachelor of Medicine from Shandong
Medical University in China.
Brian Meadows, CFO—Mr. Meadows joined GLG in 2007 as CFO. He holds both the
Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as the Certified Management
Accountant (CMA) designation. He obtained his Bachelors of Business Administration
from Wilfrid Laurier University in 1987 and an International MBA from the University of
Glasgow in 1995. We believe his expertise in finance and operations has helped GLG
experience consistent growth and profitability. Prior to GLG, his experience includes 20
years in the telecommunications industry in both North America and Europe, including
positions with TELUS and EnerTel.
Sam Newberg, VP Sales Americas—Mr. Newberg has over 20 years experience in food
and beverage processing and sweetener functionality and food chemistry. His
background includes senior sales and marketing roles with Akzo Nobel, JPM and
Nutrasweet. Mr. Newberg holds a Master of Science in Chemistry from Roosevelt
University in Chicago.
Dr. Steve Bodicoat, VP Sales EMEA—Dr. Bodicoat has over 25 years of specialty
chemicals and food ingredient experience within major global entities including
Unilever, ICI Quest International, and CP Kelco (J.M. Huber Corporation). His roles have
included senior Sales and Marketing positions within EMEA regions. Steven holds a B.Sc.
in Chemistry and a Ph.D. in Organic Chemistry from the University of Nottingham. In his
direct sales role at CP Kelco, Steven led a sales force responsible for $150 mln in
revenues across the EMEA region. He was the key account manager for Unilever.
Qian Wang, President, ANOC—Ms. Wang serves as President of ANOC operations and is
responsible for general management, government relationship and public relations.
Prior to being appointed as ANOC’s President, Qian Wang held VP government relations
and operations management titles at GLG Life Tech China’s operations. She has over 20
years of experience in government relations and business management including
working for the Ministry of Transportation as a Chief Economist and General Manager.
Ms. Wang holds degrees from Shandong University of Technology and Shenzhen
University.
Mr. Chen Tzyh Chen, VP of R&D and Formulation, ANOC—Mr. Chen comes to ANOC
after over 30 years of consumer beverage and food formulation experiences including
senior positions with President Enterprises Corporation.
Mr. Cheng Yin-Chieh, VP of Marketing, ANOC—Mr. Cheng brings over 26 years of
marketing experience in the consumer food and beverage industry in China, Hong Kong
and Taiwan. Prior to joining GLG Mr. Cheng held senior positions with Master Kong
Beverage Corporation, President Enterprises Corporation and Brain Advertising.
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 109 of 183
GLG Life Tech was initially listed on the CNQ in 2005 and started trading on the TSX
under the symbol GLG in 2007 following a $34.5 mln private placement. The company
was dual-listed on the NASDAQ exchange in November 2009 under ticker GLGL. As of
April 13, 2011 there were 32,661,212 shares outstanding of which ~12.6% are owned by
insiders (see Exhibit 7). Dr. Luke Zhang is the largest single shareholder (7.4%). Two of
the largest shareholders, Skyland International Investment Management and Pacific
Marketing Consultants Ltd. (combined holdings of 19.3%) are headquartered in China.
Corporations / Institutions
Skyland International Inv. Mgmt 3,248,555 9.95%
Pacific Marketing Consultants Ltd. 3,058,569 9.36%
Columbia Wagner Asset Management 2,346,000 7.18%
HZ Health Management Company Limited 2,303,238 7.05%
IG Investment Management 1,641,100 5.02% Other
Top Corporations / Institutions 12,597,462 38.57% 42.1%
Total Corporations / Institutions 14,794,643 45.30%
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Industry Analysis
Global demand for sweeteners is expected to enjoy healthy growth throughout our
forecast horizon, largely on account of robust demand growth in emerging markets. At
the same time, we believe that rising health-related concerns and the soaring cost of
sugar—which recently surpassed 30-yr highs—are likely to favour market share gains for
alternative sweeteners such as stevia.
8 CAGR = ~5.1%
60
7
50
6
US $ Billions
US $ Billions
40 5
30 4
3
20
2
10
1
0 0
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10f 2005 2007 2009f 2011f 2013f 2015f
Source: Global Industry Analysts, Mintel Group, GLG Life Tech Corp., Raymond James Ltd.
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Exhibit 10: China per Capita Sugar Consumption Exhibit 11: Forecasted Per Capita Sugar Consumption
14 40
1999-2009: CAGR = 6%
China & India forecasted to lag behind the US
12 and EU in per capita consumption
Per Capita Consumption (2011E, kg)
Per Capita Consumption (kg)
10 30
20
6
4
10
2
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 0
China India US EU
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4. Traditional Sweeteners Under Fire; Paving the Way for Stevia Uptake
The global sweetener industry is also battling several stiff headwinds that, we believe,
pave the road for stevia to accumulate greater market share over time. Key headwinds
include:
Cost of Sugar and Corn Skyrocketing—Agflation has been a theme in recent
months, punctuated by sudden surges in sugar and corn prices that make
alternative sweeteners, such as stevia, far more attractive from a price-point
perspective (see Exhibit 13). Tight sugar supplies have combined with weather
setbacks in Australia and Brazil (two largest sugar exporters) to drive sugar prices
higher. Traditionally, high sugar prices encourage a drift towards high fructose corn
syrup (HFCS) purely on relative cost bases. Recently, however, corn prices have also
been a record-breaking spree, with corn becoming a more valuable commodity
than wheat in April 2011 for the first time in 15 years. Much of the demand for corn
has been driven by the biofuel and animal feed industries, leaving limited room for
HFCS. As traditional sweeteners continue to face headwinds, there is a significant
opportunity for alternative sweeteners such as stevia to accumulate greater market
share, in our view.
Obesity & Diabetes Spreading—Escalating health-related risks associated with
excessive sweetener consumption has prompted many consumer groups and
government organizations to fight back. In the US, for example, the Center for
Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 26.7% of the total population, or
72.5 mln people, are now obese. Global obesity trends (see Exhibit 14) have quickly
translated into a higher prevalence of other diseases such as diabetes, including in
emerging markets. In India, ~20.0% of the population, or ~240 mln people, is now
afflicted with diabetes. Growing obesity in China has resulted in 92 mln being
afflicted, with growth of the disease amongst adult males higher than in the US, UK,
and Australia.
Exhibit 13: Sugar and HFCS Prices Exhibit 14: Global Obesity Rates
40 40.0
Sugar
35 High Fructose Corn Syrup 35.0
30 30.0
Obesity Rate in Adults (%)
25 25.0
US $/lb
20 20.0
15 15.0
10 10.0
5 5.0
0 0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 U.S. Canada Brazil Ger UK S. India China Japan Aus
Arabia
Source: GLG Life Tech Corp., Bloomberg, International Obesity Taskforce, Raymond James Ltd.
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Stevia’s market-share within the sweetener space has been growing rapidly. Market
research firm Nielsen Group reports that in only two years, GLG-customer Cargill
(TRUVIA brand) has overtaken Equal (aspartame) to take third place in the US non-sugar
sweetener market, behind Splenda (sucralose) and Sweet’N’Low (saccharin).
As regulatory barriers fall and market acceptance improves, stevia sales growth is
expected to accelerate. In a recent study, industry consultants Zenith International
pegged 2010 global stevia extract sales at US$285 mln, representing a 27.0% y/y
increase over 2009. This figure is expected to increase 3x to US$825 mln by 2014,
representing 11,000 MT annually of high-purity stevia extract. Major sales regions in
2010 were Asia (driven by Japan), North America, and Latin America, making up 36.0%,
30.0%, and 24.0% of the global market respectively. We expect Europe to become a
much larger piece of the global pie once regulatory approval has been secured.
The size of the stevia extract market is dwarfed by that of stevia-sweetened food and
beverage products, which has been has been growing by leaps and bounds since FDA
GRAS approval in 2008 (see Exhibit 15). Global manufacturers including Kraft, Dean
Foods, and Unilever have joined early pioneers Coca-Cola and PepsiCo with hundreds of
product launches each year that now include cereals, yogurt, energy drinks, and salad
dressings. A recent Nielsen Group report indicates the market for stevia-sweetened
food and beverage products in the US alone totaled $3.2 bln in 2010, representing a
126.5% y/y increase (see Exhibit 16).
We foresee the roll-out of new stevia-sweetened food and beverage products
continuing to accelerate as regulatory barriers fall around the world and consumers
demand healthier alternatives to sugar, both in developed and developing markets such
as China. These are positive fundamentals for GLG’s consumer product focused ANOC
joint venture, as well as boding well for attractive demand growth for its stevia extract.
Exhibit 15: US Stevia Applications by Product Category Exhibit 16: US Sales of Stevia Based Products
1,200
Retail sales of stevia-based
160
products in 2010 up 126.5% y/y
Sports Drink
Salad Dressing 600
80
RTD Tea
Pow dered Soft Drink
60 Carbonated Soft Drink
400
Bread
40 Fruit Drink
Soymilk
Juice 200
20
Sugar Substitute
Flavored Water
0 0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
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Company Strategy
Two of the core pillars beneath GLG’s corporate strategy include: (1) cost reduction
through vertical integration, and (2) product and market development for stevia extract.
Below we review each of these two strategic components.
Vertical Integration; Controlling the Supply Chain—Fundamental to GLG’s strategy is
control of the entire value chain (see Exhibit 17). This approach, albeit aggressive, is
expected to help GLG better manage (i.e. reduce) costs, extract operating efficiencies,
maintain the company’s proprietary advantage, and ultimately, enhance margins. Key
components of this strategy include: (i) developing proprietary, high-yield stevia seeds;
(ii) developing enhanced agriculture practices; (iii) developing state-of-the-art
processing and refining assets, and (iv) forging strong government relationships. GLG’s
integration has more recently extended even further downstream with the
aforementioned launch of its ANOC joint venture aimed at developing stevia-based
beverages for the Chinese marketplace (see our ANOC Primer section).
Cost Reduction via Proprietary, High Yield Seeds—Because stevia leaves represent
GLG’s single largest input cost (accounting for ~65-70% of COGS), the company is
intensely focused on developing proprietary seed strains that boast enhanced
glycoside content and higher net refining yield (see Exhibit 18). These
enhancements include lowering the cost of its proprietary stevia seeds, increasing
the crop yield (i.e. number of stevia plants per acre), and most importantly,
increasing the RA content level within its proprietary stevia leaf beyond the current
~62% level. Significant strides are being made with GLG’s next generation H2 and
H3 stevia seeds (see Exhibit 19).
Sales to Customers
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Exhibit 18: RA Content in Stevia Leaf Exhibit 19: Next Generation GLG Stevia
3.0%
H3 Proprietary Strain
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Product & Market Development—As discussed herein, we believe the global market
opportunities for stevia are enormous. Despite GLG’s industry leading position, the
company remains a relatively young enterprise with limited resources. GLG has
developed its product and market development strategy to take this fact into account.
China Focus: Largest, Most Attractive Opportunities—Following a strategic review
in 2010, GLG management concluded that its largest, most attractive opportunities
were based in China, a view which coincides with our macro outlook (see our Apr-
27-11 Industry Report Clash of the Titans: Food vs. Feed vs. Fuel). Stevia is very well
suited to the Chinese market, in our view, given that: (1) the country is facing large
sugar shortages; (2) the government is reluctant to allow expansion of corn
processing into sweetener alternatives as it combats human and livestock food
inflation; (3) stevia addresses China’s concerns over arable land as the crop requires
1/12th the land needed to grow sugar, and (4) the burgeoning middle class
population is becoming more focused on healthy living in order to combat obesity
and diabetes, both growing domestic concerns. According to recent USDA
commentary, Chinese sugar consumption is expected to reach 15.1 mln tonnes in
2011 versus 14.8 mln tonnes the year previous, driven by 13-15% y/y growth in the
domestic food and beverage industry fueled by a burgeoning middle class. Chinese
sugar imports of 1 mln tonnes in 2010 are expected, by various commodity analysts,
to reach 2-3 mln tonnes in 2011 as domestic consumption growth outpaces
production.
Chinese Sugar Reserve Opportunity—China’s rising sugar deficit has created the
opportunity for GLG to supply a 50/50 sugar-stevia blend into the China Sugar
Reserve (CSR). This blended product provides 2x the sweetening potency of the
equivalent volume of traditional sugar. Although timeline details are not yet firm,
management expects to deliver 5,000 MT of high-grade stevia over 3-5 years, with
initial deliveries of 500 MT expected for 2H11. The size of this multi-phase ramp
would imply the need for a commensurate expansion of GLG’s production
capabilities. The company estimates realizing $700-$800 mln in total revenues over
the course of this entire opportunity.
ANOC JV Holds Massive Potential—GLG’s success in establishing an 80% position
within the ANOC joint venture business with China Agriculture and Healthy Foods is
an example of the opportunities available in the Chinese market. With nationwide
distribution, national marketing campaigns, and plans for over 30 beverages and
300 food products, this JV could, in our view, represent a game-changing
opportunity for GLG. See our ANOC Primer below for more details.
Premiere Partnership with Cargill; Additional Partners for ROW Distribution—
Despite GLG’s focus on the Chinese market, the company is not ignoring rest-of-the-
world (ROW) markets (see Exhibit 20). Historically, the bulk of GLG’s stevia sales
have been to Cargill, an international provider of food and agricultural products and
services. Cargill’s use of GLG stevia extract within its branded sweetener TRUVIA,
which is then sold to major North American beverage companies including Coca-
Cola, has served as a significant ‘stamp of approval’. In pursuing additional ROW
markets, GLG has chosen to secure long term distribution arrangements with
established strategic partners (often sugar or ingredient companies) to drive sales.
This helps to significantly mitigate execution risk, in our view. It also allows GLG to
leverage existing sales channels and relationships in each market rather than
building these from scratch. Most recently, the firm announced distribution
agreements for Mexico, Australia, India, the Middle East, and Europe. Management
expects to continue establishing such relationships in other key regions, over time,
including in Europe, the US, and Japan. Beyond providing product, GLG provides its
regional partners with training, joint sales, and marketing support.
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 119 of 183
Mexico
Distribution agreement w ith
Grupo Azucarero Mexico, the
largest private sugar Australia and New Zealand
producer in the country. Distribution agreement w ith Sugar
(Jul. 10) Australia, a leading sugar refiner in
Australia and New Zealand.
(Jul. 10)
Latin Am erica
Distribution Agreement w ith
Essentia Stevia, a leading stevia
distributor in Latin America.
(Apr. 10)
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ANOC Primer
On December 22, 2010, GLG announced an 80% stake in a new joint venture with China
Agriculture and Healthy Foods Company Limited (CAHFC). Named Dr. Zhang’s All Natural
and Zero Calorie (ANOC) Beverage and Foods Company, the JV is set up to tackle the
sale and distribution of zero-calorie, stevia-based beverage and food products in China.
This JV developed out of GLG’s 5-year stevia supply agreement signed in Sep-2010 with
CAHFC subsidiary FXY.
ANOC Market Opportunity—The opportunity for zero-calorie sugar-free beverages
in China appears immense, in our view. At a macro level, the broader Chinese food
and beverage industry has experienced stellar growth over the past decade posting
a 25% annual CAGR on the back of robust growth in consumer disposable income
(see Exhibits 21 and 22). Moreover, according to market research firm Freedonia,
Chinese consumers are in the midst of a notable shift in preference toward healthy
and functional products as awareness grows over disturbing health-related issues
such as obesity (now growing faster than in the US) and diabetes. According to
China Health Statistics, there are 130 mln people suffering from high blood
pressure, 350 mln over-weight individuals, and 70 mln people who are considered
obese. Collectively, we believe these factors bode well for continued growth in
zero-calorie, sugar-free beverages.
ANOC Management Structure—GLG controls ANOC through its 80.0% ownership
and the appointment of the majority of board members. In addition, GLG CEO, Dr.
Luke Zhang, serves as ANOC’s chairman and CEO. Chinese beverage industry
expertise is being added through an impressive management team recruited from
some of China’s leading beverage companies including Kang Shi Fu (+US$5 bln
annual sales), Yili (+US$6 bln p.a.) and Hui Yan Juice (+US$400 mln p.a.).
Recent Milestones—Despite the JVs relative infancy, ANOC has already
accomplished several noteworthy milestones over the past 3 months. Specifically,
we highlight: (1) initiation of commercial beverage production through a CAHFC
facility; (2) the appointment of six Chinese executives recruited from major
competing food and beverage producers; (3) the launch of six initial beverage
products (see Exhibit 23) following government approvals for national distribution;
(4) selection of a bottling and servicing partner; (5) launch of its first national ad
campaign, and (6) six mln units sold within three weeks of product launch.
Exhibit 21: China Income & Beverage Consumption Exhibit 22: Chinese Beverage Makers Revenues
80 4,000
15,000
60 3,000
CAGR=66%
10,000
40 2,000
5,000 1,000
20
0 0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Wahaha Kang Shi Fu Wanglaoji
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ANOC Timeline
A joint venture between GLG Life Tech (80% ownership) and CAHFC (20% ownership)
Date Detail
Dec. 14, 2010 ► Announced a JV for the sale and distribution of zero calorie food and beverage products in China
Dec. 22, 2010 ► Initiated commerical beverage production at partner CAHFC's Xioagang facility
Dec. 30, 2010 ► JV registered in Hong Kong as Dr. Zhang All Natural & Zero Calorie Beverage and Foods Group
Jan. 15, 2011 ► Appointed senior executives with extensive backrounds in food and beverage sector
Mar. 11, 2011 ► Six initial product offerings revealed: black, green, and jasmine ice tea varieties
Mar. 15, 2011 ► Announced Hon Chuan Group as a bottling partner
Mar. 17, 2011 ► Launched national advertising campaign
Apr. 20, 2011 ► Announced initial shipments of 6 mln bottles; expectation for 9 mln more through to end of April
May. 1, 2011 ► Expect beginning of second phase of ANOC marketing campaign
1H11 ► Limited 1Q11 sales; expectation for ~20% of FY forecasted revenue run rate
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GLG boasts an attractive revenue and earnings growth profile, in our view. We forecast
that F2011 and F2012 revenues will advance 186.8% and 82.2% y/y respectively, to
$169.0 mln and $308.0 mln, driven by rapid growth of the ANOC joint venture and stevia
sales to fulfill the aforementioned China Sugar Reserve opportunity. In this context, we
forecast the CSR opportunity accounting for ~24% of total revenues in F2011 and F012,
or $38 mln and $75 mln respectively. We forecast the ANOC joint venture contributing
$75 mln and $180 mln in revenues in F2011 and F2012 respectively.
Consistent with this growth profile, we expect GLG will deliver strong EBITDA and EPS
growth. Specifically, we forecast 2011 and 2012 EBITDA of $32.8 mln and $60.4 mln,
considerable increases over the $16.2 mln generated in 2010. Similarly, we expect 2011
and 2012 EPS to come in at $0.28 and $0.79, respectively.
Despite this impressive growth profile, we highlight that our 2011 estimates remain on
the low-end of management guidance (see Exhibit 25). Our revenue and EBITDA
estimates leave plenty of room for GLG to surprise to the upside.
Gross Margin (%) 28.9 29.8 21.4 28.3 27.8 30.1 28.3 30.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.4 27.5 19.5 13.0 18.3 24.0 19.4 19.6
Stevia Business
Revenue $41,885 $ 58,927 $10,261 $ 15,739 $ 32,000 $ 36,000 $ 94,000 $ 128,000 $ 90,000 $ 100,000
EBITDA $ 9,394 $ 16,186 $ 2,001 $ 3,935 $ 10,876 $ 12,600 $ 29,411 $ 44,876 $ 30,000 $ 33,000
ANOC Business
Revenue $ - $ - $ - $ 15,000 $ 37,500 $ 22,500 $ 75,000 $ 180,000 $ 70,000 $ 100,000
EBITDA $ - $ - $ - $ 75 $ 1,875 $ 1,463 $ 3,413 $ 15,500 $ - $ 6,000
Margins
Gross margins are expected to recover in 2Q11, following two quarters of pressure due
to price incentives, G&A reclassification, and higher start-up costs at the firm’s Runhao
facility. Management expects the new ANOC joint venture to garner gross margins in
the “mid-30’s” over the long-term. Taken together, we expect consolidated 2011 and
2012 gross margins of 28.3% and 30.8% respectively. On a segmented basis, we forecast
EBITDA margins for the stevia business to come in at 31.3% and 35.1% in 2011 and 2012
respectively. Due to the consumer-oriented nature of the business, we expect EBITDA
margins at ANOC to be considerably lower, at 4.6% and 8.6% respectively in 2011 and
2012. This will, in our view, weigh consolidated EBITDA margin down to 19.4% and
19.6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, from 27.5% in 2010 (see Exhibits 26 and 27).
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Exhibit 26: Segmented GLG Revenue Exhibit 27: GLG Margin History & Forecast
30.5
$250,000 $50,000
$150,000 29.0
$30,000
28.5
$100,000 $20,000
28.0
$50,000 $10,000
27.5
$- $- 27.0
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Capital Structure
GLG is in a sound financial position, in our view, with a healthy balance sheet and
sufficient liquidity bolstered by a recent equity offering. As of 4Q10, GLG held $78.5 mln
in cash proforma of a recent equity financing, offset by debt totaling $106.2 mln. Of this
debt, $99.6 mln was short-term loans with Chinese banks. This implies a healthy
proforma net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2x and current ratio of 1.5x (see Exhibit 28).
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We are initiating coverage on GLG with an Strong Buy rating and $12.50 target price.
Based upon the stock’s recent closing price on April 20, our target represents a 38.1%
total return to target. Below we discuss the rationale behind our target and rating.
Evolving Profile, Evolving Benchmarks—As discussed herein, we believe that GLG’s
strategic foray into the downstream, zero-calorie Chinese beverage market is poised to
reshape the firm’s revenue and earnings profile. From a valuation perspective, we argue
this evolution will similarly alter the company’s competitive landscape and relevant
valuation benchmarks. In other words, while Pure Circle arguably remains the
company’s closest peer today—and only publicly-traded stevia producer—we believe
that a number of well-established Chinese domestic and international beverage
companies (see Appendix B) will become increasingly relevant over time—many which
command richer multiples than GLG and its sweetener peers are historically accustomed
to. While not an immediate effect, we would therefore expect GLG’s consolidated
relative multiple to move higher over time reflecting the growing significance of ANOC
as a proportion of the rest of GLG’s business.
SOP Methodology Captures Distinct Prospects—We employ a sum-of-parts (SOP)
valuation methodology to derive our target as we believe it best captures the distinct
growth prospects facing GLG’s evolving business units (see Exhibit 29). We apply a 7.8x
EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2012 EBITDA estimate for the company’s core stevia extract
business, while applying a 10.0x multiple for ANOC. Although we acknowledge GLG’s
enormous, near-term growth prospects, both of these multiples are at a discount to the
firm’s sweetener, ingredient, and Asia/global beverage peers. We believe this discount
is warranted, for now, given GLG’s size and relatively early stage of development. On a
consolidated basis, our $12.50 target price equates to an 8.4x 2012 multiple.
Paying Very Little for ANOC at Current Levels; Immense Option Value—Put another
way, we believe that investors are currently attributing very little value to GLG’s new
ANOC joint venture. Specifically, our analysis suggests that investors are currently
paying only ~$1.00–1.25/share for what, we believe, will soon become the company’s
key growth engine. While we recognize investor trepidation to ascribe too much value
at such an early stage, we believe that this metric dramatically underestimates ANOC’s
earnings potential. Furthermore, as previously highlighted, our current assumptions lie
at the bottom end of management guidance for 2011, use reasonable estimates for
2012, and fail to account for the even stronger growth we expect in 2013 (and beyond),
arguably providing a great deal of conservatism at this point.
Exhibit 29: GLG Sum-of-Parts (SOP) Valuation Exhibit 30: GLG Historical EV/EBITDA Multiples
GLG SOP 2012E Target Implied Implied Value
Valuation EBITDA Multiples EVs per Share
GLG EV/EBITDA GLG EV/EBITDA (Avg.)
Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple (NTM)
Segment 20
Stevia 44,876 7.8 351,023 $8.19
ANOC 15,500 10.0 155,000 $4.31
Total 60,376 506,023 $12.50 15
0
May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 127 of 183
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Canada Research | Page 128 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 16,018 23,817 26,746 25,242
Accounts Receivables 5,718 31,561 80,357 105,721
Taxes Recoverable 5,130 6,554 6,554 6,554
Inventories 41,149 63,307 78,622 109,719
Prepaid Expenses 8,578 4,380 8,775 13,347
Interest Receivables - 2 2 2
Total Current Assets 76,594 129,621 201,056 260,584
Current Liabilities
Short-term Loans 37,318 100,131 65,131 75,131
Accounts Payable and Accrued Liabilities 25,383 21,930 55,507 71,726
Interest Payable 269 385 385 385
Due to Related Party 7,243 99 99 99
Advances from Customers - 77 77 77
Total Current Liabilities 70,213 122,622 121,200 147,418
Shareholders' Equity
Common Stock - Par Value 134,812 141,366 200,466 206,466
Additional Paid in Capital 14,910 14,960 14,960 14,960
Retained Earnings (Deficit) (11,289) (14,223) (4,166) 24,144
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income 6,387 5,676 5,676 5,676
Total Shareholders Equity 144,819 147,779 216,937 251,246
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 229,586 277,182 344,918 405,445
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 129 of 183
Operating Activities
Net Income 758 (2,934) 10,058 28,309
Plus Items Not Affecting Cash:
Stock-Based Compensation 2,479 3,308 3,900 6,000
Amortization of Property, Plant, and Equipment 6,385 10,034 12,200 14,000
Provision on Loans and Receivables 58 (18) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/ Loss (2,616) 202 - -
Future Income Tax Expense (Recovery) (754) (102) - -
Non-Controlling Interest (144) (19) - -
Subtotal Non-Cash Items 6,167 10,471 26,158 48,309
Net Changes in Non-Cash Working Capital (23,428) (39,191) (34,929) (44,814)
Cash Flow from Operating Activities (17,261) (28,720) (8,771) 3,496
Investing Activities
Purchase of PP&E (34,872) (14,722) (8,500) (15,000)
Decrease (Increase) in Short-Term Investments 326 - - -
Decrease (Increase) in Restricted Cash 91 10 - -
Cash Flow from Investing Activities (34,455) (14,712) (8,500) (15,000)
Financing Activities
Issue of Short-term Loans 58,157 53,982 - 10,000
Repayment of Short-term Loans (13,929) (3,719) (35,000) -
Issuance of Shares 33,241 - 58,200 -
Issuance of Shares on Stock Option Excercisement 291 1,319 - -
Share Issuance Costs (3,186) - (3,000) -
(Repayment) of Advance from a Customer (22,053) - - -
Increase in Advance from Customer - 74 - -
Advance from Related Parties 7,726 2,635 - -
Repayment of a Related Party Loan - (3,406) - -
Cash Flow from Financing Activities 60,248 50,883 20,200 10,000
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Canada Research | Page 130 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
GLG Life Tech Corporation GLG.CA CAD 31-Dec 9.05 36 322 28 350 n.m. 32.3 11.5 n.m. 10.7 5.8 7.9 1.8 --
Notes:
1.) All figures are in CAD unless otherwise noted.
2.) All estimates are from Thomson except ABC, BXI, and GLG are Raymond James estimates.
3.) P/E Values > 30.0x and EV/EBITDA multiples > 30.0x have been discarded (n.m.).
4.) GLG numbers are pro-forma of recent financing.
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GLG Life Tech Corporation Canada Research | Page 131 of 183
Risks
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 132 of 183 GLG Life Tech Corporation
Company Citations
Company Name Ticker Exchange Currency Closing Price RJ Rating RJ Entity
Dean Foods DF NYSE NC
Kraft Foods Inc. KFT NYSE NC
Tesco Corporation TESO NASDAQ NC
Unilever NV UN NYSE NC
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT NYSE US$ 53.37 1 RJ & Associates
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for
rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be approved for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not
covered.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
®
RAYMOND JAMES
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 38 and Analyst Certification on page 39.
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Canada Research | Page 134 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Table of Contents
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 135 of 183
Investment Overview
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Canada Research | Page 136 of 183 Viterra Inc.
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 137 of 183
Company Overview
Viterra Inc. (VT) is a Canadian-based grain handling and food ingredients company with
vertically-integrated international operations throughout Canada, Australia, New
Zealand, and the United States (see Exhibit 1). VT’s operations are segmented into three
inter-related agri-business units: (i) Grain Handling and Marketing (‘Grain Handling’); (ii)
Agri-Products; and (iii) Processing (see Exhibit 2). Based in Regina, Canada, the company
has ~5,500 employees and is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (VT-TSX) in addition
to its CDI’s trading in Australia (VTA-ASX).
Company Services: Premiere provider of grain products. Sale of seed, crop protection products, fertilizer, Production of semi-finished & finished food
Accumulates, stores, transports and markets wool equipment and financial products to farmers. ingredients for downstream consumer food
grains and oilseeds. products companies and food processors
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Business Mix
Grain Handling is VT’s largest business by a healthy margin, accounting for 64.6% of
2010 EBITDA, while Agri-Products and Processing made up the residual 20.5% and
14.8%, respectively (see Exhibit 3). Grain Handling’s proportion of EBITDA generation
has grown considerably versus its 49.2% share in 2008, due primarily to VT’s recent
acquisition of Australia-based ABB (see Exhibit 4). This acquisition also served to
enhance geographic diversification, with Canada representing 33.3% of 2010 revenue,
versus 58.2% only two years prior. Australia, by comparison, accounted for 13.1% of
2010 revenue, a considerable increase versus 3.3% in 2008.
$ EBITDA in thousands
500,000
Processing
400,000
(Food &
Feed)
14.8% 300,000
Grain
Handling & 200,000
Marketing
64.6%
100,000
-
2008 2009 2010
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 139 of 183
Exhibit 5: Canadian Grain Handling Market Share Exhibit 6: VT’s Canadian Grain Infrastructure
Independent Viterra
30% 31%
Exhibit 7: VT’s South Australian Infrastructure Exhibit 8: Australian Wheat Growing Regions
South
Australia
South Australia
►108 storage and handling facilities - 7.1 mln tonnes
► 8 port terminals 3.2 mln tonnes
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2. Agri-Products
VT’s Agri-Products segment engages in the sale of seeds, crop protection products,
fertilizers, and small scale equipment to farmers while also providing financing and
agronomy services. Through 261 retail locations, VT controls an estimated 34.0% of the
western Canadian agri-products market. The company also operates 12 retail stores in
Australia and participates in the wool business.
Canada
Fertilizer Represents Core Backbone—Fertilizer is the principal component of VT’s
Agri-Products business mix, accounting for 44.0% of 2010 segment sales. Roughly
34.0% of its fertilizer needs are sourced through a joint venture with CF Industries
in Canadian Fertilizer Ltd., operator of a world-class urea and ammonia fertilizer
plant. The balance of its fertilizer requirements are sourced on the open market.
Creating a Competitive Advantage through Branded Crop Protection Products—
Through a network of retail locations, VT offers a variety of crop protection
products (CPP) including: herbicides, insecticides, fungicides and seed treatments.
The company’s focus has been on developing branded private label products,
currently at 22, in an attempt to compete with an increasing number of generic
products offered in this mature market.
Proprietary Seed Business—VT’s seed distribution business, the largest in Canada,
focuses on both publicly available and proprietary variants. High-yield proprietary
canola, flax, barley, and wheat seeds are developed in partnership with research
centers at the University of Saskatchewan and University of Adelaide.
Financial Products: An Important Relationship Builder—Through VT’s Financial
business, the company offers loan services to Agri-Product custumers and, to a
much smaller extent, customers in the livestock and animal feed business. VT acts
as an agent for a Canadian chartered bank, and in turn, extends credit to farms who
use the funds to purchase agri-products from the company. During the 2010 fiscal
year, approved credit for agri-product customers amounted to $1.4 bln and an
additional $107 mln for livestock customers.
Australia
VT’s retail presence in the region is still relatively small compared to some of its
Australian peers. Hence, programs such as a direct sales model are used in an attempt
to differentiate.
Fertilizer & Crop Protection—VT’s fertilizer operations in Australia include
importing, blending, wholesale, and retail distribution across South Australia,
Victoria and New South Wales, with sales amounting to ~130,000 tpy.
Approximately 80.0% of these sales are conducted through third-party agents.
Wool—VT’s wool business makes up a significant portion of the Ag-Products
segment. Transactions in the wool industry are handled through auctions where VT
acts as both a buyer and a seller (40/60 split).
Seeds—VT’s Australian seed portfolio consists of 18 varieties, primarily wheat and
barley since these two grains account for 80.0% of all Australian grain production.
An equity ownership in the University of Adelaide Barley Breeding Program allows
VT first right of refusal over new varieties.
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 141 of 183
3. Processing
VT produces food ingredients for downstream consumer food products and food
processors around the world, as well as feed and nutritional supplements for the animal
feed industries in Canada, United States and New Zealand (see Exhibit 9). This segment,
in our view, has the most attractive prospect for growth given the relative high margins,
consistent demand profile, and fragmented nature of the industry.
Food Processing
World’s Largest Industrial Oat Miller—VT’s position as the world’s largest industrial
oat miller is underpinned by 540,000 tpy of processing capacity that results in
335,000 tpy of finished product. The company’s oat operations are strategically
located in Canada’s oat growing regions of Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba
(prairies provinces produce over 90.0% of Canada’s oats) and Nebraska. Viterra
exports 90.0% of its oat production volume, primarily to the United States but also
to Central and South America.
Third Largest Pasta Processor in N.A.—With last year’s acquisition of Dakota
Growers, VT became a leading producer and marketer of pasta in the United States.
The company has the capacity to grind 340,000 tpy of durum wheat and process
254,000 tpy of dry pasta.
Significant Canola Press Footprint—VT’s 1,000-tonne per day canola processing
plant in Manitoba is one of the largest of its kind in the world. Product, consisting of
meal and oil, is distributed primarily to Canadian and US markets.
Australia—In conjunction with the company’s recent ABB acquisition, VT became
Australia’s largest malt processor with 500,000 tpy of capacity spread across eight
plants (see Exhibit 10). With 80.0% of its production destined for export, VT
consumes 600,000 tonnes, or 25.0%, of Australia’s malt barley crop on an annual
basis. The company is constructing a malt processing and container packaging
facility in Minto, New South Wales which will add 110,000 tpy of malting capacity
and 147,000 tpy of grain handling.
Exhibit 9: VT’s North American Processing Facilities Exhibit 10: Australian Barley Growing Regions & VT’s facilities
Canola Processing
Feed Producs
Malt
Oat & Specialty Grain Milling
Pasta Processing
Viterra’s malting facilities
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Canada Research | Page 142 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Feed Products
VT’s processing business is also engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of feed
products and related commodity ingredients. The company sells to a diverse range of
dairy, beef, and poultry livestock producers through operations strategically located in
North America and New Zealand.
North America— Manufacturing is carried out in 14 facilities throughout Canada
and the US, with a combined operating capacity of nearly 2.5 mln tpy (see Exhibit 9
above). In the United States it operates through a wholly-owned subsidiary Unifeed
Hi-Pro Inc (‘Hi-Pro’).
New Zealand—VT is the largest feed manufacturer in New Zealand, operating a
network of maize processing, feed milling, dairy blending and storage facilities with
capacity to produce 330,000 tpy of feed. With New Zealand a net feed importer, VT
supplies additional product through its international network and provides ~46.0%
of the country’s feed requirements.
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 143 of 183
Company History
Viterra was established in 1924 as the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool (‘SWP’) co-operative.
The company first began trading publicly under the symbol ‘SWP’ following an IPO in
1996 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. In 2007, the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool acquired
Agricore United and changed its name to Viterra Inc.
In September 2009, VT completed the acquisition of Australian ABB Grain Ltd. for an
implied enterprise value of AUD$2.1 bln, significantly expanding its global reach and
providing access to year-round supply (see Exhibit 11). Along with Canada and China,
Australia is one of the top grain producing countries in the world. More recently, VT
completed the acquisition of Dakota Growers Pasta Company (North America’s leading
producer of dry pasta products) and 21st Century Grain Processing (US-based processor
of oats, wheat and custom coated grains) in May and August of 2010, respectively.
Acquired
Associated
D = Dom estic Proteins L.P.
C$64 mln
I = International
(Jun. 09)
E = Equity
Note: Transaction sizes are Raised $920 mln Raised $460.5 mln Raised $450 mln through
implied enterprise values (EV). through four subscription through common subscription receipt offering
receipt offerings sharea and over- to help fund ABB acquisition
(2007) allotment options (May 2009)
(May 2008)
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Canada Research | Page 144 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Management Team
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 145 of 183
Viterra shares have traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol “VT”
since 2007. Prior to that, Saskatchewan Wheat Pool was a publicly traded company
since 1996 under the symbol “SWP”. VT has been dual-listed on the Australian Stock
Exchange (ASX) under the symbol “VTA” through a Depository Interest structure since
September 2009. Its TSX-listed shares are substantially more liquid, with a three-month
average daily trading volume of 1.15 mln shares versus 20,000 on the ASX.
There are approximately 371.7 mln shares outstanding (as of March 7, 2011) of which
0.46% are owned by insiders. VT’s shareholder base is split 34.2% / 65.3% amongst
institutions and retail investors (see Exhibit 12). We note the Alberta Investment
Management Corp. (AIMCO) is the second largest single shareholder with a 17.1% stake.
The top five holders own 30.3% of VT’s outstanding shares.
VT currently pays a semi-annual dividend of C$0.10 equating to an annual yield of
approximately 1.0%. This dividend was recently commenced on December 1, 2010 with
the first payment on February 10, 2011 to holders of record on January 20, 2011.
Corporations / Institutions
Alberta Investment Management Corp. 63,454,500 17.07%
Third Avenue Management 15,959,451 4.29%
Global Thematic Partners 12,212,591 3.29%
CI Investments Inc 12,118,470 3.26%
ProFund Advisors LLC 8,753,160 2.35%
Top Corporations / Institutions 112,498,172 30.27% Other
Total Corporations / Institutions 127,125,031 34.20% 65.3%
Source: Viterra Inc., Capital IQ, Thomson, Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 146 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Industry Analysis
As reviewed in our Apr-27-2011 Industry Report Clash of the Titans: Food vs. Feed vs.
Fuel, we believe the long-term outlook for global food and grain demand remains
robust, particularly in emerging markets where population growth and rising disposable
incomes are fuelling a seismic shift in dietary patterns towards higher quality, nutritious
food. However, given that many of these regions have inadequate available domestic
grain supplies, we believe they will increasingly rely on imports to satisfy demand. The
corollary, in our view, is that international grain handlers with global sourcing
capabilities will become increasingly vital to food security over time. In order to help
investors better understand the industries within which Viterra operates, below we
outline several industry attributes and sector trends that help support our broader
investment thesis.
1. Canadian Crop Mix: The Rise of Pulses, Oilseeds and Specialty Crops
Western Canadian grain production, while obviously subject to seasonal variations, has
been generally mean reverting (i.e. stable) over the past eight years, averaging 46.6 mln
tonnes per year (see Exhibit 13). At the same time, the relative mix of products has been
shifting with a strong upward trend in the production of pulses, oilseeds and specialty
crops as farmers look to maximize their profit per acre and total return on investment
(see Exhibit 14). Canola’s share of major grains production, for example, soared from
14.0% in 2003/04 to an estimated 25.0% in the 2010/11 crop year. Specialty crops, as a
whole, experienced CAGR of 3.4% in Canada between 1999 and 2009. In the average
year, approximately 65.0% of the total crop output moves through the Canadian
elevator system, generating revenue opportunities for Canada’s largest grain handlers.
Viterra has evolved with these crop trends, recently equipping its elevator system to
adapt with this change in mix and cater to those crops with strong export markets.
Exhibit 13: Western Canadian 6 Major Grains Production Exhibit 14: Western Canadian Production by Crop
60 30
All Wheat Coarse Grain Oilseeds Special Crops
6 Grains Production (mln tonnes)
50 25
40 20
Million Tonnes
30 15
20 10
10 5
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11f
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 147 of 183
Exhibit 15: Market Share by Number of Elevators Exhibit 16: Primary Market Share by Grain Receipts
50.0%
45%
45.0%
Market Share (Grain, by receipts)
Viterra 40.0%
30%
35.0%
Other
40% 30.0%
25.0% 23%
20.0% 19%
15.0% 13%
JRI 10.0%
17%
Cargill 5.0%
13%
0.0%
Viterra JRI Cargill Other
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Canada Research | Page 148 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Viterra
GrainCorp
CBH Group
AWB / Agrium
Elders
Cargill
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 149 of 183
90.0%
25% 12
S.A + W. Australia as % of all production
EU
80.0%
24%
10 70.0%
60.0%
8
50.0%
6
40.0%
4 30.0%
Canada
16% 20.0%
Australia 2
31% 10.0%
0.0%
1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10
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Canada Research | Page 150 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Company Strategy
VT has undergone a transformational change over the past decade, executing on its
vision of becoming a leading global agri-business enterprise. Key components of this
strategy include management’s desire to: (i) reduce weather (i.e. crop) related risk by
diversifying its geographic origination; (ii) increase vertical integration and exposure to
value-added food processing; (iii) leverage its existing assets, and (iv) increase its retail
store footprint. All of these activities are designed to smooth earnings and de-risk VT’s
business from factors such as weather and commodity prices.
Geographic Diversification—VT’s acquisition of Australia-based ABB Inc. in Sep-
2009 was a transformational deal that helped the firm balance its sourcing
capabilities, mitigate weather-related risk, and reduce earnings volatility. While the
Australian market carries its own unique crop related risks, the ABB transaction
provided Viterra with a dominant footprint in a region responsible for generating
~16.0% of global wheat, barley, and canola exports. A complimentary harvesting
schedule also extended the company’s ability to source grain throughout the year
(see Exhibit 20). Finally, ABB also came with a world-leading malting business and
greater access to Asian markets. We believe these attributes, coupled with the
firm’s strategy to diversify its product offering, will continue to reduce the
company’s risk profile and smooth out earnings.
Region Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Canada
Winter wheat Harvest Planting
Spring wheat Planting Harvest
Barley Planting Harvest
Australia
Wheat Harvest Planting Harvest
Barley Harvest Planting Harvest
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Exhibit 21: Russian Wheat Production/Use Exhibit 22: Ukranian Wheat Production/Use
80 30
70
25
60
Million Tonnes
Million Tonnes
20
50
40 15
30
10
20
5
10
2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20
Domestic Supply Domestic Use Exports
Domestic Supply Domestic Use Exports
Source: The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), Raymond James Ltd.
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Canada Research | Page 152 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Exhibit 23: Example of the VT’s Supply Chain & Margin Creation
INFORMATION FLOW
COMMODITY FLOW
Expand Retail Footprint—VT aims to increase its current ~34.0% western Canada
agri-products market share to 40.0% by expanding its 261 store network and
increasing same-store sales. Location growth will be achieved through a mix of
acquisitions and new-store builds. Same-store sales growth is to be achieved
through expansion of value-added services offered to farmers as well as expansion
of its higher-margin proprietary and exclusive product lines. Leveraging its buying
power and achieving operational efficiencies should, in our view, help to boost
profitability. Finally, we note that management has indicated the desire to expand
into new agri-product markets, though details remain vague at this point.
Progress to Date—VT has made considerable strides towards diversifying and de-risking
its business. Since 2008, the firm has grown the processing segment from 9.0% of its
overall EBITDA to 21.0% today. Plans call for the agri-products and processing segments
to respectively make up 30.0% and 35.0% of the overall business in the future (see
Exhibit 24). Increasing origination capabilities in the Grain Handling segment, set to
become only ~35.0% of the overall business, would also serve to reduce earnings
volatility.
TODAY FUTURE
Processing
21%
Processing Grain
35% 35%
Grain
58%
Agri-products
21%
Agri-products
30%
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Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 153 of 183
The economics of Viterra’s diversified business model are predicated upon a wide range
of key agribusiness factors. In order to help investors understand these key profit
drivers, we provide a brief summary below by business segment.
1. Grain Handling and Marketing
Primary Volumes—VT’s Grain Handling segment employs a high-fixed cost
infrastructure relying heavily on volume throughput to drive attractive economics.
In other words, higher throughput drives down the cost per tonne of grain handled.
Higher volumes also allow VT to extract greater logistics concessions from key
railroad customers. Seeded acres, weather, yield, crop output, and in-storage
carryover volumes are critical crop variables that tend to influence the volumes
moving through Viterra’s primary grain handling infrastructure. We also highlight
the company’s market share tends to be a function of price and service (i.e.
efficiency).
Key Indicators Seeded Acres, Crop Output, Carryover Volumes, Market Share
Volume Sensitivity 5.0% change in volume has a $15.0-$18.0 mln EBITDA impact
Revenue Sensitivity 1.0% change in revenue has a $2.0-$4.0 mln EBITDA impact
Global Demand
Gross Margin Sensitivity 1.0% change in revenue has a $14.0-$18.0 mln EBITDA impact
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Canada Research | Page 154 of 183 Viterra Inc.
take advantage of arbitrage opportunities that arise globally and source from non-
VT providers for sale into high-priced markets. Earnings produced by this group are
driven by the proportion of non-regulated grains as a part of VT’s overall mix, as
well as global crop supply/demand fundamentals.
Key Indicators VT % Non-Regulated Grains, Global S-D (price, crop size, quality)
2. Agri-Products
VT’s Agri-product segment sales are seasonal in nature and tend to follow the Canadian
crop life cycle. As a general rule, ~60.0% of all Agri-product sales occur during the third
quarter when farmers actively purchase their key crop inputs, seed, fertilizer, and crop
protection products. Key factors affecting the volume of sales and their respective
margins include:
Seeded Acres—The number of acres available for seeding largely dictates demand
for key crop inputs. In western Canada, seeded acres of the six major grains have
averaged ~53.0 mln over the last two decades. Predictability is fairly good as the
variance during this same period has been minimal, with a low of ~47.0 mln acres
and a high of ~55.6 mln acres.
Weather—Weather impacts the amount key crop inputs that are required on a per-
acre basis. For example, higher soil moisture levels require the application of more
fertilizer per acre. Conversely, if moisture is too excessive, larger swaths of land
may remain unseeded as was the case in the 2010 Canadian planting season.
Crop Mix—Crop input requirements vary based on the type of crop. Therefore, crop
mix across the seeded acreage provides variability in demand for crop inputs.
Canola, for example, requires an average of ~$90-120 in crop inputs per seeded
acre versus pulses at ~$60-70 (see Exhibit 25).
Commodity Prices—Higher commodity prices tend to incentivize farmers to
maximize the number of acres they successfully seed in order to increase output as
well as taking steps to boost crop quality. This is, in most cases, reflected in
relatively higher levels of agri-products purchases as farmers invest more in crop
protection and fertilizer. Ancillary commodity prices can also be important profit
drivers for VT. For instance, natural gas prices correlate to fertilizer pricing and
margins. VT also tends to act opportunistically, accumulating third party fertilizer
when prices are low in order to sell through its extensive distribution channel
during peak pricing.
Barley 55-80
Pulses 60-70
Wheat 70-95
Canola 90-120
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 155 of 183
3. Processing
Macro factors such as population growth, food supply/demand dynamics, and
nutritional trends are underlying drivers for the food and feed processing businesses.
Please refer to our macro section for more details on some of these drivers.
Food—VT’s food businesses are driven by consumer demand for high nutrition
whole grains (oat business), cooking oils low in saturated fat (canola business), and
demand for beer particularly in Asia (malt business). The level of margin that is
generated by VT is also driven by its access to high quality, low cost feedstock
through its grain network. Crop cost and quality affect the yield and therefore the
profitability of the business. This is particularly true in the oat business where over
1.5 tonnes of raw material are required to produce one tonne of consumable oat.
Feed—Volume is the single most important driver for feed, driven by human
consumption of animal meat and dairy products. VT’s feed products are sold
domestically and therefore domestic demand drivers within N.A., Australia, and
New Zealand including herd sizes, livestock prices, and dairy prices are most
important. In Canada, we note that growth in the dairy market and related feed are
stabilized through quotas. In addition to volume, feed margins are also impacted by
the proportion of higher value; higher nutrition feed products sold versus
commoditized mixes.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 156 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Regional Outlooks
Below we provide the forward outlook for key metrics relating to both Canada and
Australia’s grain handling industry, given VT’s prominence within both regions (see
Exhibits 26 and 27).
2010/2011
► CGC Receipts: * F11 Receipts (from '10 Harvest) estimated @ 31.0 mln tonnes (vs. 32.0 typical)
► CWB Exports: * Export Targets set @ 17.4 mln tonnes; 1.0 mln tonnes lower than previous year.
* Wheat exports target set @ 11.8 mln tonnes (17.6 mln previous year), barley exports targeted @ 1.5 mln tonnes (1.3 mln previous year)
► Crop Quality: * Crop quality suffered from late harvest (frost) & excessive moisture.
* Only 29.0% of crop in top two grades, vs. 79% typical
2011/2012E
► Seeded Area: * Forecasted @ 23.0 mln hectares or 56.8 mln acres (6 major grains)
Historical Seeded Area (Wheat, Barley, Canola) Six Major Grains Forecasted Production
12 70
Top 3 grains had lower seeded
area in 2010 compared to its 60
10
historical levels
Seeded area (million ha)
50
8
Million tonnes
40
6
30
4
20
2 10
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 f 2011-12 f 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11f 2011-12f
Wheat Canola Barley Wheat Barley Canola Oats Flax Peas
40 Wheat Barley
25
Seven year average receivals ~ 32.0 mln
35
20
30
Million tonnes
Milliion tonnes
25
15
20
t
15 10
10
5
5
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11F 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11f
Source: Stats Canada, CGS, CWB, Viterra Inc., Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 157 of 183
2010/2011
► Production All Australia: * As of February 2011 ABARES forecast is 42.1 mln tonnes, a 19% YoY increase
► Production South Australia: * Estimated production @ 9.7 mln tonnes, above the 5 yr avg of 5.2 mln tonnes
► Crop Quality: * Most wheat classified as ASW or lower due to rain/disease; majority of barley crop downgraded to feed
► Carry Out Stock: * Estimated @ 1.2 mln tonnes from the recent harvest (2010-11), will complement S.A. production volume.
2011/2012E
► Production All Australia: * ABARE estimate of ~8% y/y decline to 38.7 mln tonnes
► Production South Australia: * Estimated at 9.0 mln tonnes based on ABARES forecast of ~8% y/y decline in national crop production
Australian Wheat Output and Exports Forecast Australian Wheat Production Forecast by State
30 12
Wheat Output & Exports (Million tonnes)
20 8
15 6
10 4
5 2
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11f 2011-12f 2012-13f 2013-14f 2014-15f 2015-16f Western Aus. NSW South Aus. Victoria Queensland Tasmania
Australian Barley Production Forecast Forecasted Values of Australia's Farm Commodity Exports (Nominal)
Barley Canola
Barley & Canola Production (Million tonnes)
14 40
12
Farm Exports (AUD$ bn nominal)
30
10
20
6
4
10
Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Viterra Inc., Raymond James Ltd.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 158 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Exhibit 28: VT Segmented EBITDA Exhibit 29: VT Consolidated EBITDA & Margin
$500
$500 5.0
$400
$400 4.0
$300
$300 3.0
$200
$200 2.0
$100
$100 1.0
$0
$0 0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 159 of 183
thanks to ideal growing conditions in the southern state. Between these two
regions, we expect Viterra shipments to increase 2.8% y/y.
Margins Also Robust—We forecast F2011 global pipeline margins at $33.91 per
tonne, up 3.4% yoy, and consistent with management’s current guidance of $33 -
$36 per tonne. Strong volumes moving out of South Australia, robust Canadian
exports, and healthy contributions from the recently formed International Grain
Group are key factors that support this outlook. We highlight that this forecast may
prove too conservative, given the +23.0% y/y margin lift recently experienced
during 1Q11.
We forecast F2012 Grain Handling EBITDA at $456.4 mln, down -7.7% y/y.
2012 Volumes Seen Lower on Aussie Crop Normalization—Seeded acres in
western Canada for the 2011/2012 crop season are currently estimated at 56.0 to
57.0 mln acres, down slightly vs. last year, and roughly 5.5% below the 60.0 mln
acre 10-year average. That being said, expectations for an improvement in y/y crop
quality should, in our view, more than offset this decline. Consistent with this, we
forecast Canadian production at 48.0 mln tonnes, up 6.7% y/y. In South Australia,
crop expectations remain high for the second consecutive year, although
production is expected to fall. Consistent with this outlook, we forecast production
of 8.5 mln tonnes, or a 13.3% y/y decline, which we note is conservative versus the
current ABARES estimate of 9.0 mln tonnes. We note this will likely be
supplemented by healthy carryover volumes in the range of 2.5 to 3.0 mln tonnes
following the record harvest this year. Taken together, we expect total Viterra
shipments to post a slight -0.1% y/y decline.
Healthy Margins—Global pipeline margins are expected to moderate to $34.5 per
tonne in F2012 on account of lower volumes coupled with quality improvement and
expectations for reduced volatility in the global grains environment. One risk to
margins, in our view, could be the re-entry of grain-giants such as Russia back into
the global supply chain from their current self-imposed export bans.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
► Production 7,237 9,800 8,500 35.4% -13.3% о 2011 production of 9.8 mln tonnes is new record (previous @ 8.9 mln tonnes).
► Shipments 6,246 8,820 7,735 41.2% -12.3% о Stong shipments for 2011, followed by some normalization in 2012.
► Carryover volumes о Estimated 2.5-3.0 mln tonnes of carryover into 2011/2012 crop year.
VT TOTAL SHIPMENTS
North America 15,834 13,886 14,960 -12.3% 7.7%
Australia 6,246 8,820 7,735 41.2% -12.3%
Total shipments 22,080 22,706 22,695 2.8% 0.0%
Margin per tonne shipped ($/tonne) $32.80 $33.91 $34.50 3.4% 1.7% о Strong 2011 margin/tonne in N.A. and Australia, followed by some normalization in 2012.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 160 of 183 Viterra Inc.
4. Agri-Products
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 161 of 183
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.9 4.9 5.0 4.6 7.9 7.2 6.3 8.6 6.3 8.6 6.1 7.5 7.2
Grain Handling & Marketing
Revenue $4,299.5 $4,176.8 $1,341.0 $1,424.2 $1,470.0 $1,421.0 $5,651.4 $1,942.6 $1,599.2 $1,801.7 $1,482.0 $6,825.5 $6,808.6
EBITDA $299.3 $247.9 $109.7 $73.6 $100.9 $102.0 $386.1 $197.8 $90.8 $119.8 $86.2 $494.5 $456.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.0 5.9 8.2 5.2 6.9 7.2 6.8 10.2 5.7 6.6 5.8 7.2 6.7
Agri-Products
Revenue $1,686.3 $1,649.9 $215.3 $440.3 $818.9 $325.1 $1,799.5 $292.6 $484.6 $908.4 $327.4 $2,013.0 $1,922.5
EBITDA $276.9 $132.3 -$11.9 $30.0 $105.8 $30.0 $153.8 $9.3 $52.6 $130.3 $23.4 $215.6 $203.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.4 8.0 -5.5 6.8 12.9 9.2 8.5 3.2 10.9 14.3 7.1 10.7 10.6
Processing (Feed & Food)
Revenue $0.0 $942.6 $311.5 $303.1 $330.8 $368.3 $1,313.8 $373.9 $332.6 $310.9 $314.2 $1,331.5 $1,458.0
EBITDA $0.0 $36.5 $23.2 $22.7 $21.9 $54.0 $104.3 $40.4 $33.9 $31.2 $42.1 $147.6 $176.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 3.9 7.4 7.5 6.6 14.7 7.9 10.8 10.2 10.0 13.4 11.1 12.1
Capital Structure
VT is in a comfortable financial position, in our view, with a healthy balance sheet and
sufficient liquidity. As of 1Q11, VT held $200.5 mln in cash, offset by $829.2 mln in
short-term borrowings and $890.3 mln in long-term debt. This implies a consolidated
debt-to-total capital ratio of 0.31x, comfortably within management’s target range of
0.30x-0.40x. In addition, VT’s rolling 12-month EBITDA ended the last quarter at 6.7x the
level of cash interest paid, well above its 5.0x minimum threshold (see Exhibit 34).
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 162 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Commensurate with our estimates, as VT’s recent acquisitions and expansion efforts
generate significant earnings moving forward, we expect an improvement in the
company’s debt ratios. Notably, we expect net debt-to-EBITDA (trailing 12 months) to
improve from 1.73x at the end of 2010 to 0.77x by F2011. We forecast EBITDA covering
interest to improve to 6.8x and 7.0x based on our respective F2011 and F2012
estimates, well above the company’s 5.0x minimum target.
Consistent with management’s guidance, VT’s future capital expenditures are projected
to grow in order to support its growing processing capabilities and international grain
handling infrastructure. Additional bunker capacity in Australia is one specific project
noted. Specifically, we forecast capital expenditures of $136.8 mln and $140.0 mln in
F2011 and F2012 respectively, up from $105.3 mln in 2010. We expect VT to fund its
capital expenditure requirements through cash flow generated from its operations.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 163 of 183
We are initiating coverage on VT with a Market Perform rating and $12.50 target price.
Based upon the stock’s recent closing price on April 20, our target represents a 13.5%
total return to target, inclusive of the company’s 0.9% dividend yield. To derive our
target price, we apply a 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple to our F2012E EBITDA estimate, a
metric we believe is justified based upon the following factors:
Consistent with Historical Trading Range—Excluding trough levels reached during
the depths of the global recession, VT has historically traded between 6.0x and 8.5x
forward EBITDA. The multiple has tended to oscillate in response to volatile crop
expectations and prevailing market conditions (see Exhibit 35).
Consistent with Peers—We believe VT’s peer group of Ag processing and grain
handling companies, including heavyweights such as Graincorp and Bunge, provide
for relevant comparable analysis. We note that each of these comparables does
have differences in products, end-markets, specific areas of value-added
processing, and geographic areas to which it has crop (e.g. weather) related
exposure. As Exhibit 36 below illustrates, VT currently trades relatively in-line versus
its comparables due to a moderation in its F2012 earnings following expectations
for a normalization of crop production in N.A. and Australia.
Future Acquisitions Not Reflected in Estimates—To date, VT has proven its ability
to carry out and integrate both small and large acquisitions. Despite ongoing ABB-
related integration efforts in the short-term, VT’s acquisitive nature is unlikely to
change, in our view. Additional acquisitions are likely to be aimed at adding to its
processing operations and further diversifying the geographic exposure of its grain
handling operations. However, because it is very difficult to speculate on the timing,
size, and specific target characteristics, we have refrained from building acquisitions
into our model. This therefore suggests further review of our estimates as these
events unfold.
Exhibit 35: Historical EV/EBITDA Trading Multiples (NTM) Exhibit 36: VT Historical P/E Trading Multiples (NTM)
14.0
40.0
VT EV/EBITDA VT EV/EBITDA (Avg.) VT P/E VT P/E (Avg.)
12.0 35.0
30.0
10.0
Forward P/E Multiple (NTM)
Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple (NTM)
25.0
8.0
20.0
6.0
15.0
4.0
10.0
2.0 5.0
0.0
0.0
Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-08 Nov-08 M ar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 M ar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 M ar-11
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 164 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 165 of 183
Non-Operating Expenses
Integration Expenses 10,191 5,449 511 -
Net Fx Gain (Loss) on Acquisition (24,105) 159 (843) -
Recovery on Pension Settlement - - - -
Gain (Loss) on Disposal of Assets 10,314 (7,778) - -
Financing Expenses 61,163 138,107 113,916 107,500
Earnings before Taxes 156,994 188,970 420,793 388,664
Net Earnings (Loss) from Cont Ops. 113,127 145,272 315,186 287,612
Net Recovery from Discont Ops. - - - -
Net Earnings 113,127 145,272 315,186 287,612
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 166 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Assets
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 165,200 107,428 1,155,190 1,306,046
Short-Term Investments 868,469 88,204 138,461 138,461
Accounts Receivable 1,004,674 995,656 997,494 1,460,002
Inventories 960,896 1,211,887 1,251,649 1,359,753
Prepaid Expenses & Deposits 89,768 107,638 116,100 135,648
Future Income Tax 44,142 30,067 8,702 8,702
Subtotal Current Assets 3,133,149 2,540,880 3,667,595 4,408,612
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Bank Indebtedness 594 40,839 50,160 50,160
Short-Term Borrowings 291,128 61,677 776,928 776,958
Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses 1,095,366 1,151,652 1,152,659 1,460,002
Current Portion Long-Term Debt 18,151 2,295 2,092 2,092
Future Income Taxes 573 391 18,655 79,287
Subtotal Current Liabilities 1,405,812 1,256,854 2,000,494 2,368,499
Unitholders' Equity
Retained Earnings 425,741 571,013 880,369 1,183,980
Accumulated Other & Comp. Inc (Loss) 54,216 107,192 104,420 104,420
Share Capital 3,025,486 3,025,491 3,026,080 3,026,080
Contributed Surplus 3,476 6,567 7,297 7,297
Total Unitholders' Equity 3,508,919 3,710,263 4,018,166 4,321,777
Total Liabilities & Unitholders' Equity 6,422,748 6,116,882 7,163,613 7,838,630
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 167 of 183
Operating Activities
Net Earnings for the Period 113,127 145,272 315,186 287,612
Financing Activities
Proceeds from Long-Term Debt 400,925 409,969 - -
(Repayment of) Long-Term Debt (18,212) (826,472) (1,614) (1,600)
Proceeds (Repayment of) ST Borrowings (23,737) (241,022) 714,855 30
(Repayment of) Other Long-Term Liabilities (819) (501) (72) -
Issuance of Share Capital 450,007 3 589 -
Share Issuance Costs (18,468) - - -
Debt Financing Costs (11,738) (22,785) - -
Financing Cash Flow 777,958 (680,808) 713,758 (1,570)
Investing Activities
Purchase of Property Plant & Equipment (75,283) (105,313) (136,757) (140,000)
Proceeds on Sale of Property, Plant & Equipment 4,201 23,164 1,978 4,000
Business Acquisitions (814,030) (288,414) - -
Business Divesture - 30,863 - -
Net Fx Gain (Loss) on Acquisition 24,105 (159) - -
Increase in Investments - 206 1,372 -
Increase in Intangible Assets (9,479) (16,515) (10,121) (2,500)
Investing Cash Flow (870,486) (356,168) (143,528) (138,500)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 168 of 183 Viterra Inc.
Agri-Products/Processing
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. AGT.CA CAD 31-Dec 23.25 20 458 93 551 23.3 8.2 6.6 n.m. 6.3 5.0 16.8 1.5 2.4%
Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM.US USD 30-Jun 35.81 637 22,822 11,526 34,348 11.7 10.7 10.2 8.9 8.9 8.4 33.6 1.6 1.8%
Bunge Limited BG.US USD 31-Dec 72.88 147 10,728 4,264 14,992 17.6 12.3 11.2 10.3 8.0 7.5 28.4 0.9 1.2%
GrainCorp Ltd. GNC.AU AUD 30-Sep 7.98 198 1,583 240 1,823 20.1 11.8 11.6 8.6 6.3 6.3 13.2 1.2 3.1%
Monsanto Co. MON.US USD 31-Aug 67.53 536 36,195 138 36,333 28.0 23.8 20.1 14.3 12.2 10.7 0.4 3.6 1.7%
Syngenta AG SYNN.VX CHF 31-Dec 308.90 93 28,631 1,597 30,228 19.7 15.7 13.9 12.4 10.4 9.5 5.3 3.8 --
The Andersons, Inc. ANDE.US USD 31-Dec 48.68 19 901 515 1,417 14.0 12.6 12.0 12.1 8.8 8.5 36.4 2.0 0.9%
Group Average 19.2 13.6 12.2 11.1 8.7 8.0
Viterra VT.CA CAD 31-Oct 11.34 372 4,126 1,518 5,644 23.7 13.1 14.4 10.9 7.8 8.1 26.9 1.1 0.9%
Notes:
1.) All figures are in CAD unless otherwise noted.
2.) All estimates are from Thomson except AGT and VT are Raymond James estimates.
3.) P/E Values > 30.0x and EV/EBITDA multiples > 30.0x have been discarded (n.m.)
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Viterra Inc. Canada Research | Page 169 of 183
Risks
Volume, Inventory & Weather risk–In a volume driven business such as Viterra’s Grain
Handling and Marketing, weather represents the most considerable risk. Because fixed
costs in this, VT’s largest business segment, represent 70-80% of all costs, volatility in
volume and inventory turns can significantly impact margins. Weather can also impact
Viterra’s other businesses such as fertilizer and crop protection sales.
Commodity Price Risk–In addition to volume, price is a key driver for the Grain Handling
and Marketing segment. The CWB assumes the price risk for all board grains (~50% of
Canadian volume), with the remaining non-board grains as well as all grains sourced in
Australia exposed to price fluctuations. Viterra’s exposure begins at the time the grain is
purchased through the time it is delivered to the end customer.
Food and Feed Safety Risk–A vast majority of Viterra’s businesses is in food products
exposing the company to food safety risk, particularity with a recent push into food
processing. In the event of significant outbreak of food-borne illness or increased
consumer health awareness with certain products the company can be vulnerable.
Regulatory Risk–Industry regulations, particularly within Canada, can affect Viterra’s
performance. While the Australian market is deregulated, CWB is the only selling
authority for Canadian wheat and barley. The CWB handles ~ 50% of Viterra’s Canadian
volume and as such, export size and scheduling can materially affect company’s grain
handling volumes.
M&A Risk–Viterra’s growth-through-acquisition strategy exposes the company to M&A
risk in the event that it does not succeed in achieving a certain level of synergies.
Viterra’s business expansions expose the company to new geographic, regulatory,
industry, operating and financial risks.
Foreign Exchange Risk– Substantial revenue is generated in US denominated currencies,
while operating expenses are accrued in Canadian and Australian dollars. The exposure
to different currency markets poses a risk which Viterra hedges by entering into
currency future and forward contracts. A significant adjustment to the exchange rate
may adversely impact the company’s results from operations.
Company Citations
Company Name Ticker Exchange Currency Closing Price RJ Rating RJ Entity
General Mills Inc. GIS NYSE NC
Imperial Oil Limited IMO TSX NC
Unilever NV UN NYSE NC
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for
rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be approved for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not
covered.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 170 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Analyst Information
Analyst Compensation: Equity research analysts and associates at Raymond James are compensated on a salary and bonus
system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall
productivity, including success in rating stocks on an absolute basis and relative to the local exchange composite Index
and/or a sector index, ii) recognition from institutional investors, iii) support effectiveness to the institutional and retail
sales forces and traders, iv) commissions generated in stocks under coverage that are attributable to the analyst’s efforts, v)
net revenues of the overall Equity Capital Markets Group, and vi) compensation levels for analysts at competing investment
dealers.
Analyst Stock Holdings: Effective September 2002, Raymond James equity research analysts and associates or members of
their households are forbidden from investing in securities of companies covered by them. Analysts and associates are
permitted to hold long positions in the securities of companies they cover which were in place prior to September 2002 but
are only permitted to sell those positions five days after the rating has been lowered to Underperform.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 171 of 183
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No
part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the
last 12 months.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 172 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Rating Distributions
Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution
RJL RJA RJL RJA
Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 70% 53% 59% 24%
Market Perform (Hold) 29% 41% 33% 10%
Underperform (Sell) 2% 6% 0% 9%
Target Prices: The information below indicates target price and rating changes for the subject companies included in this
research.
Asia Bio-Chem Group Corp. (ABC) 3 yr. Stock Performance
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
Date
MO2 $1.75
MO2 $2.00
$2.20
MO2 $2.25
$2.00 Feb-08-11 1.39 2.25 2
$1.80 Dec-15-10 1.60 2.00 2
$1.60 Oct-12-10 1.43 1.75 2
$1.40
Security Price (C$)
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-29-10
Jan-26-11
Feb-23-11
Mar-22-11
Apr-19-11
Valuation Methodology: For Asia Bio-Chem Group Corp., our valuation methodology utilizes a EV/EBITDA multiple and
CNY/CDN fx rate based on our EBITDA forecast, and takes into account growth potential, earnings quality, visibility, risk
profile, expansion opportunities, and historical trading range. We also include a peer group multiple comparison.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 173 of 183
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
Date
$37.00
$35.00
$33.00
$31.00
Security Price (C$)
$29.00
$27.00
$25.00
$23.00
$21.00
$19.00
$17.00
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-31-10
Jan-28-11
Feb-25-11
Mar-25-11
Apr-22-11
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month Price Objective
SB1: Strong Buy MO2: Outperform
MP3: Market Perform MU4: Underperform
NR : Not Rated R: Restricted
Valuation Methodology: For AGT, our valuation methodology utilizes an EV/EBITDA multiple based on our EBITDA
forecast, and takes into account growth potential, earnings quality, visibility, risk profile, expansion opportunities, and
historical trading range. We also include a peer group and recent transaction multiple comparison.
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
Date
$3.20
$3.00
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
Security Price (C$)
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-31-10
Jan-28-11
Feb-25-11
Mar-25-11
Apr-22-11
Valuation Methodology: For BXI, our valuation methodology utilizes discounted cash flow (DCF) with variables that
take into account growth potential, earnings quality, visibility, risk profile, and expansion opportunities. We then apply
a risk-adjustment to our NAV to account for the early stage of BXI and upcoming critical milestones. Our valuation is
compared to an equivalent multiple on our forward EPS estimate.
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Canada Research | Page 174 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
MO2 $13.00
Date
MO2 $15.00
MO2 $15.00 MP 3 $15.00 MP 3 $12.25 MO2 $20.00
MO2 $16.50 MO2 $16.50 SB1 $20.00
MO2 $14.00
$19.00
$18.00
Mar-29-11 16.00 20.00 1
$17.00 Mar-10-11 16.06 20.00 2
$16.00
$15.00 Nov-12-10 13.20 16.50 2
$14.00
Sep-24-10 11.30 12.25 3
Security Price (C$)
$13.00
$12.00 Aug-11-10 10.45 15.00 2
$11.00
$10.00
Jul-05-10 10.50 13.00 2
$9.00 May-13-10 11.65 14.00 2
$8.00
$7.00 Apr-14-10 13.50 16.50 2
$6.00
Mar-17-10 14.16 15.00 3
$5.00
$4.00 Nov-19-09 12.35 15.00 2
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-30-10
Jan-27-11
Feb-24-11
Mar-23-11
Apr-20-11
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month Price Objective
SB1: Strong Buy MO2: Outperform
MP3: Market Perform MU4: Underperform
NR : Not Rated R: Restricted
Valuation Methodology: Our valuation methodology for Cervus uses a peer group P/E multiple comparison plus the
present value of Cervus’ tax losses.
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
Date
$18.00
$16.00
$14.00
Security Price (C$)
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-31-10
Jan-28-11
Feb-25-11
Mar-25-11
Apr-22-11
Valuation Methodology: For GLG, our valuation methodology utilizes a EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our EBITDA
forecast for each of the company’s core businesses, and takes into account growth potential, earnings quality, visibility,
risk profile, expansion opportunities, and historical trading range. We also include a peer group multiple comparison.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 175 of 183
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
MO2 $10.75
Date
MO2 $11.25
MO2 $6.00 SB1 $9.50 SB1 $12.50 MO2 $10.50 MO2 $14.00
MO2 $12.50 MO2 $12.50
$11.00
$10.00 Aug-11-10 7.90 12.50 2
$9.00
$8.00
Jul-05-10 7.60 10.50 2
$7.00 Mar-10-10 10.51 13.00 2
$6.00
$5.00 Jan-14-10 9.50 12.50 2
$4.00
Nov-11-09 7.60 12.50 1
$3.00
$2.00 Aug-12-09 5.61 9.50 1
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-30-10
Jan-27-11
Feb-24-11
Mar-23-11
Apr-20-11
Apr-17-09 4.60 6.00 2
Valuation Methodology: We value Rocky Mountain on a comparative basis to peer group P/E multiples.
Update
Closing
Target
Rating
Price
Price
Date
$16.00
$15.00
$14.00
$13.00
Security Price (C$)
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
Apr-28-08
May-26-08
Jun-23-08
Jul-21-08
Aug-18-08
Sep-15-08
Oct-13-08
Nov-10-08
Dec-08-08
Jan-05-09
Feb-02-09
Mar-02-09
Mar-30-09
Apr-27-09
May-25-09
Jun-22-09
Jul-20-09
Aug-17-09
Sep-14-09
Oct-12-09
Nov-09-09
Dec-07-09
Jan-04-10
Feb-01-10
Mar-01-10
Mar-29-10
Apr-26-10
May-24-10
Jun-21-10
Jul-19-10
Aug-16-10
Sep-13-10
Oct-11-10
Nov-08-10
Dec-03-10
Dec-31-10
Jan-28-11
Feb-25-11
Mar-25-11
Apr-22-11
Valuation Methodology: For VT, our valuation methodology utilizes a EV/EBITDA multiple based on our EBITDA
forecast, and takes into account growth potential, earnings quality, visibility, risk profile, expansion opportunities, and
historical trading range. We also include a peer group multiple comparison.
Risk Factors
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on
Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could
change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or
new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments
with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective
valuation; or (4) External factors that affect the U.S. economy, interest rates, the U.S. dollar or major segments of the
economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects. International investments involve additional risks such
as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability.
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Canada Research | Page 176 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
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Canada Research | Page 178 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
Intellectual Property–GLG uses proprietary technologies to extract high grade stevia extract. These technologies are
patented only in China. Therefore, any competitor developing technology equal to or better than that of GLG would have a
negative impact on GLG’s competitive position.
Product Liability–Negative public perception, product liability claims, ill effects, recalls could harm the sales and cause
consumers to avoid the product all together.
Brand name recognition–The food and beverage industry is highly competitive and brand-conscious. Any inability to create
a recognizable brand could hurt companies sales and competitiveness.
Customer Concentration–In the past, GLG has relied heavily on one customer: Cargill. The reliance on sales to Cargill has
dropped from 90% in 2009 to 47% of revenues in 2010. GLG’s business operations could be severely impacted if Cargill
were to terminate this relationship.
Competition–Competitors may enter the market globally, which may drive down the price of stevia extract. Some of these
competitors may also have greater financial, technical and marketing resources and a better established customer base.
Regulation–While regulatory barriers have been dropping, there still is a number of large regions where stevia has not yet
been approved for use. Global demand for stevia and related products may be constrained as stevia’s approval remains
limited to a small number of countries. Additional regulations are imposed on food and beverage processing; any changes
to these can materially impact the company’s operations.
Product Acceptance–To date, GLG’s revenues have been based solely on stevia and stevia related products. If the stevia
market declines or fails to achieve greater acceptance, the company will not be able to grow its business and maintain
profitability. Furthermore, the food and beverage industry is fast-paced, with consumer tastes and preferences changing
rapidly. The inability to develop innovative products that meet consumer demand and changing preference could have a
negative, material effect on GLG’s sales.
Third Party Distribution–GLG relies heavily on third party distribution for the sale and distribution of its products. In the
event that distributors are distracted from selling the product or do not place sufficient effort into managing and selling
stevia products, GLG’s sales could be adversely affected.
Foreign Exchange – GLG’s financial results are largely affected by the currency exchange rate between USD and RMB. The
company generates USD denominated revenue and accrues expenses denominated in RMB, while at the same time it
reports financial results in CAD. In China, currency conversion is regulated by the State Administration for Foreign Exchange
(“SAFE”) and is subject to a number of rules and regulations. Changes in the government policy with respect to RMB
conversion can materially affect GLG’s business. A significant adjustment to the exchange rate may adversely impact the
company’s results from operations.
Foreign Operations—Because a significant proportion of the company’s operations are conducted in China, operations are
exposed to significant political, economic, and other risks associated with the PRC. These risks and uncertainties include,
but are not limited to: high rates of inflation; labour unrest; renegotiation or nullification of existing concessions, licenses,
permits and contracts; changes in taxation policies; restrictions on foreign exchange; government corruption; changing
political conditions; currency controls and governmental regulations that favour or require the awarding of contracts to
local contractors or require foreign contractors to employ citizens of, or purchase supplies from, a particular jurisdiction.
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 179 of 183
Infrastructure—The company’s ability to carry on its operations in China in a profitable manner are highly dependent on
continued provision of reliable infrastructure by local Chinese governments including public highways, railways, ports,
shipping lines, power sources and water supply. Unusual or infrequent weather phenomena, malfunction, ineffective
scheduling, sabotage, government or other interference in the maintenance or provision of such infrastructure could
adversely affect the company’s business and operations, financial condition and results of operations.
Dependence on key personnel–GLG’s business is built on relationships its key employees, primarily Dr. Luke Zhang, have
established with the Chinese government and strategic customers. The loss of any key personnel and in particular Dr. Luke
Zhang could have an adverse effect on the company’s business. For example, Cargill Inc. may terminate the strategic
alliance and supply agreement in the event that Dr. Zhang ceases to be actively involved in GLG’s business.
Commodity Price Risk–In addition to volume, price is a key driver for the Grain Handling and Marketing segment. The CWB
assumes the price risk for all board grains (~50% of Canadian volume), with the remaining non-board grains as well as all
grains sourced in Australia exposed to price fluctuations. Viterra’s exposure begins at the time the grain is purchased
through the time it is delivered to the end customer.
Seasonality Risk–A vast majority of Viterra’s businesses is in food products exposing the company to food safety risk,
particularity with a recent push into food processing. In the event of significant outbreak of food-borne illness or increased
consumer health awareness with certain products the company can be vulnerable.
Food and Feed Safety Risk–A vast majority of Viterra’s businesses is in food products exposing the company to food safety
risk, particularity with a recent push into food processing. In the event of significant outbreak of food-borne illness or
increased consumer health awareness with certain products the company can be vulnerable.
Regulatory Risk–Industry regulations, particularly within Canada, can affect AGT’s performance. While The Australian
market is deregulated, CWB is the only selling authority for Canadian wheat and barley. The CWB handles ~ 50% of
Viterra’s Canadian volume and as such, export size and scheduling can materially affect company’s grain handling volumes.
M&A Risk–Viterra’s growth-through-acquisition strategy exposes the company to M&A risk in the event that it does not
succeed in achieving a certain level of synergies. Viterra’s business expansions expose the company to new geographic,
regulatory, industry, operating and financial risks.
Foreign Exchange Risk– Substantial revenue is generated in US denominated currencies, while operating expenses are
accrued in Canadian and Australian dollars. The exposure to different currency markets poses a risk which Viterra hedges by
entering into currency future and forward contracts. A significant adjustment to the exchange rate may adversely impact
the company’s results from operations.
Transportation and Transloading–AGT is dependent on third parties and container availability for the transportation of its
products. In Canada, a large portion of AGT’s products are transported by rail, with another significant portion by road. In
Turkey, AGT’s products are transported exclusively by road. As the majority of AGT’s products are exported, AGT also relies
on shipping companies and vessel space. All exported products also pass through third party transloading facilities to
facilitate their final containerization for export. Strikes, work stoppages, labour disputes, failure or substandard
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 180 of 183 Agribusiness & Food Products
performance of equipment or other interruptions to the rail or road networks, haulage companies, transloading facilities or
shipping companies used by AGT and limited container availability may have a material adverse effect on the business,
financial condition and results of operations of AGT.
Distribution and Supply Contracts–AGT typically does not enter into formal long-term agreements with clients, distributors,
or suppliers. As a result, such parties may, without notice or penalty, terminate their relationship with AGT at any time. In
addition, even if such parties should decide to continue their relationship with AGT, there can be no guarantee that the
consideration or other terms of such contracts will continue on the same basis. If any of these clients chose to terminate or
alter their relationship with AGT that could have a negative affect on the company’s business.
Reliance on Key Personnel–AGT is dependent on the abilities, experience and efforts of its senior management. The
business could be negatively impacted should any of these persons leave, in particular CEO Mr. Murad Al-Katib.
Wholesale Price Volatility Risk–Industry Regulations, particularly in Canada, can affect AGT’s performance. While the
Australian market is deregulated, CWB is the only selling authority for Canadian wheat and barley. The CWB handles ~50%
of Viterra’s Canadian volume and, as such, export size and scheduling can materially affect the company’s grain handling
volumes.
M&A Risk–Viterra’s growth-through-acquisition strategy exposes the company to M&A risk in the event that it does not
succeed in achieving a certain level of synergies. Specifically, these expansions expose the company to new geographic,
regulatory, industry, operating and financial risks.
Foreign Exchange Risk – A significant proportion of AGT’s revenues are generated in US dollars, while its costs are incurred
in Canadian dollars and Turkish lira. As a result, AGT is exposed to currency exchange rate risks. A significant adjustment to
the exchange rate may adversely impact the company’s results from operations.
Production, scaling up–To date, the company has only run a medium size processing facility on a limited basis. There is no
assurance that BioExx will be successful at constructing and operating, on a continuous basis, up to five large-scale
processing facilities. The inability to demonstrate successful full commercial-scale operations could have a material impact
of the business.
History of losses–BioExx has been in existence for a short time and has a history of losses. While the losses are expected as
the company is building out the business, there is a risk that BioExx will never achieve or maintain profitability. The limited
history makes it difficult to asses whether the company will be successful and profitable.
Price risk–The company is exposed to commodity price risk with respect to raw materials (canola) but also the volatility in
protein prices for its final products. The price exposure is typically tracked by the crush margin. As crush margins increase,
the company’s margins increase and vice-versa. In order to mitigate exposure, BioExx attempts to lock in seed, oil and meal
prices within the same future price window to avoid pricing mismatches. There is no guarantee, however, that it is able to
do so at any given time or on a consistent basis.
Intellectual Property–BioExx patents its extraction processes in the U.S., Canada and Europe, in addition to other markets
where it may be necessary. There is no guarantee, however, that the applications for patents will be approved given that
regulations vary across countries. There is a potential that its technology gets replicated and BioExx loses to competition.
Product Quality–Several canola facilities in Canada have reported cases of salmonella over the past year. BioExx has not had
any issues, largely due to its cooling process which hinders germination. The company has also received HACCP/ISO/GMP
certification. This does still remain a key risk.
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Agribusiness & Food Products Canada Research | Page 181 of 183
Product Acceptance–BioExx is developing new products and it is crucial to successfully educate customers. To the extent
that BioExx is unable to introduce new and innovative products could significantly damage its business.
Regulation–The end markets for BioExx products such as pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals and food processing, are highly
regulated. Regulatory changes may have significant impact on the company’s ability to market its products. In addition,
laws and regulations differ across countries, thus BioExx could potentially be exposed to multiple regulatory sources.
Competition–The markets for vegetable oil, meal and protein are highly competitive. If a competitor develops or acquires
superior technology or products, Bio-Exx’s business could be materially affected.
Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability
categories, is available at www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures. Copies of research or Raymond James’ summary
policies relating to research analyst independence can be obtained by contacting any Raymond James & Associates or
Raymond James Financial Services office (please see raymondjames.com for office locations) or by calling 727-567-1000, toll
free 800-237-5643 or sending a written request to the Equity Research Library, Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Tower 3,
6th Floor, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716.
International Disclosures
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