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Paul Swaim Speaker Sr. Economist Employment Analysis and Policy Division Support labour demand OECD Provide
Paul
Swaim
Speaker
Sr. Economist Employment Analysis
and Policy Division
Support labour demand
OECD
Provide the people without jobs >1 year
Need social protection
Government support
Labour markets in the wake of the
"Great Recession".
Keep jobs
Important
Topic
employers
Relocate job
Buy-in unions to not to protected the system
Denis
Total employment was changing
Pennel
Masterclass
Moderator
Public employment services
Retraining programs
Alexis van Dam
Improve skills unemployed
Type of retooling/
Mindmapper
World of Minds
reskilling
Training program can't cope with
large stream of attendees
Important
No clear answers
Q: What is the impact analysis on the
Question
measures taken by government
Mindmap
Summary of the masterclass
Retraining
contains
Legend
Questions asked by attendees
Re-employment
Clockwise
Reinforce labour demand
Read mindmap
From top to bottom
Resize jobs due to shorten work time
Be ready to manage
Job counseling
a big recession
What did
Unemployment benefits
governments do
International Confederation of Private
Employment Agencies,
Saving jobs
Short time work
program
Sometimes it didn't
help that much
Staffing industry
46
countries
USA didn't invest
much in system
Amount of budget spend to
re-employ people varies
10
million agency workers
Working together with OECD
Start
Employment more volatile
Impact of crisis
More temporary jobs
Look forward
Aim
Growth on temorary workers till 2007 high
Flexibility in market
Effects
Since 2009 its recovery
Integovernment organisation
Sack people
Solution
Economisc issues by governments
Or cut down on hours
EU USA, Asia, Australia
Well adapted to flexibilty
Social dialogue
Labour markets
Ideal mechanism
New technologies
Social protection
They need to keep up
Flexibility
system
What's happening
Degree flexibilty vs social protection/
support systems
New forecast
Generous social protection system
OECD outlook
Dramatic change
Crisis in 2008 the worst since 1930's
Is the worst kind
Banking crisis
Forecast was less optimistic then the reality
Master class 4: Labour
markets in the wake of
the "Great Recession"
In 2008 the situation
Steep falll in trade
Spain: 21%
Peaks in
looked bad
Estonia: 20%
unemployment
Economic crisis wasn't so deep
Ireland: 15%
Overall
Taken into account large fall of GDP
Turkey: 10%
Slovakia: 9%
Pre crisis
Resilient
Spain: 8%
Top3
Flexibility
Labour markets
High enemployment
Spain: 20% (same)
Take a long time to bounce back
Ireland: 15 (same)
1990 - 1995 increase from 3% to 18%
Latest
Unemployment
Is bouncing back
rate
1995 - 2008 slow decrease to 6%
Estonia: 14% (-6%)
2008 increase to 9%
Small effect
Netherlands
High
Labour
unemployment
Unemployment levels varies amongst EU countries
markets
Social benefit system: genereous
due to
Social protection system
A drop op 4% GDP is a bad recession
Flexibility
Consequentions
drop in GDP
Example
Amount of hours worked dropped
Currently
Finland
Unemployment services
Output per worker dropped
Employers went to great effort to keep workers
GDP
Bad recession
Bad for employment
Cutting jobs
Lessons
Sharing work
Solutions Public Policy
Recovery of employment level takes
longer then the decline
Employers & Unions
worked together
What happend
Changed their system
Less experience
Youth
duringrecession
European
Became more resilient
See graph
Save more money
countries
Different from USA
Stock market
Crisis was a good stress test
Lay off during crisis at 57 now 60
Older
Issue for governments
Retirement is expensive
Public pension system
Greying off working
population
Who lost jobs?
Layed off
Low skilled
Due to colapse in industry
Men where hit harder
then women
Men are more likely to work in industry
Costly
People >1year unemployed
Issolation
Germany
No high increase/ decrease
Crisis
Immigrants
Lots of contruction
High increase due to
Spain
Unemployment >12 months is 8%
Unemployment
Increase productivity
rate
Smaller group that works harder
High increase due to crisis
When business conditions go bad
Unemployment >12 months is 3%
Usa
Services based economy
USA productivity
Analyse the effect on flex work
Variations in productivity
Q: is there a flex
worker security
index?
Temporarily export
market went bad
Germany
Kept skilled workforce
Look at productive workers
Questions
Situation
Each country
Based
needs specific
upon
Type of workforce
measures
Work
2011-05-19 Ciett2011 World Employment Conference | LiveMindMapping by World of Minds, more info see: www.connectionofminds.com/ontmoet