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Abstract
Human health is at growing risk due to the multiple climatic effects of global
warming. More importantly, it is becoming evident that individual ecocrises
are not independent phenomenon but are entwined with and contribute to the
intensification of other environmental predicaments. In light of a range of
imagined futures that share a narrative about global warming that posits the
existence of global “winners and losers” (regions that will benefit from and
those that will suffer from global warming), this paper examines two specific
cases—Midwestern flooding during the summer of 2008 and the accelerating
degradation of the Sacramento Delta. These examples, expressions of conver-
gent ecocrises, here termed pluralea interactions, suggest that going beyond
global warming reveals the folly of “winner and loser” thinking. The paper
concludes with a discussion of the implications of the health impacts of inter-
secting ecocrises for directions in medical anthropology. [Keywords: global
warming, anthropology of health, imagined futures, pluralea]
Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 82, No. 3, pp. 795–820, ISSN 0003-549. © 2009 by the Institute for Ethnographic
Research (IFER) a part of the George Washington University. All rights reserved.
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future of winners and losers that people in much of sub-Saharan Africa and
on small island nations will be losers, they assert that people in what are
generally low-density populated areas, such as much of North America,
northern Europe, Siberia, Tasmania, and New Zealand, will be among the
winners in terms of longer growing seasons and increasingly habitable lands.
In other words, as Coreil (2004:3) notes, “Whether a particular impact is per-
ceived as negative or positive depends on one’s interests.”
The final scenario in Chamberlin’s scheme involves a future character-
ized by a broad transformative response to environmental threat. In this
imagined world, we achieve the mitigation of global warming through the
adoption of alternative planet-friendly lifestyles and green energy
approaches. Inevitably, as indicated below in the conclusion, achieve-
ment of such a future requires a commitment to environmental justice.
Confronting Pluralea
It is the argument of this paper that all of Chamberlin’s futures narratives,
especially those that incorporate an acceptance of winners and losers, fail
to fully engage the issue of pluralea interactions and the threat they pose
for human health and well-being. Of considerable importance in the
study of pluraleal phenomena are their proximate and ultimate causes,
and especially, from the anthropological standpoint, the precise role of
human social and economic systems in generating health damaging envi-
ronmental stresses and the intertwined ecocrises that result. Also critical
to the pluralea perspective is the development of an understanding of the
pathways and mechanisms through which two or more ecocrises interact
to produce synergistic, magnified environmental and health impacts.
No less than the alternatives discussed by Chamberlin, the pluralea
perspective is a product of imaginings about the future; most directly, it
is a descendent of a lineage of evidence-based calculations of the health
and environmental costs of societal pursuit of “natural resources.” One of
the earliest published examinations of this issue was The Challenge of
Man’s Future by journalist Harrison Brown (1954). In this seminal volume,
Brown (1954) argued that if all nations of the world were to achieve the
level of development of the West there would eventually be a collapse of
the natural resource base on which developed countries depend. While
Brown’s warning had little impact when it was published, 18 years later,
in 1972, the Club of Rome issued a similar book, entitled The Limits to
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Growth, that did attract attention from the media, researchers, and poli-
cy-makers. Initiated in 1968, the Club of Rome was born of a conference
designed to discuss the costs of short-term thinking in international
affairs, especially the human penalties of promoting unlimited resource
consumption in an increasingly interdependent world. Reflecting the
efforts of an international and multidisciplinary team of experts who had
access to a wide range of data bases on world population, agricultural and
industrial production, resource depletion, and pollution, the book pro-
jected a global economic collapse some time before 2100 AD. The cause
of the collapse was explained as the calculable limits of the environment
to both provide the massive quantities of resources needed to meet rising
levels of consumption worldwide and to endure the anthropogenic pollu-
tion borne of ever-expanding production (Club of Rome 1972). While com-
mitted to market-based economics, the authors of The Limits to Growth
recognized the threat that industrial capitalism presents for maintaining
the fragile ecosystems on which all life depends.
Subsequently, in 1983, the United Nations General Assembly passed a res-
olution creating the World Commission on Environment and Development.
The Brundtland Commission, as it came to be known, first met in October
1984 and published its report, Our Common Future, 900 days later, in April
1987. Over the 900 days that the Commission was in session, signs of the omi-
nous health-related impact of human activity on the environment regularly
made front page headlines around the world. These included:
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The folly of such thinking is suggested by the scale of the storms that inun-
dated the Midwest during the months of May and June of 2008, and the
implications they have for the alleged rosy future of the region. As graph-
ically reported in USA Today (Keen 2008:1):
“Nightmare” was the only word Joe Russell could come up with
Sunday to describe the ordeal his family has been through in the past
week. Five days after a tornado tore the roof off their one-story
home on the banks of the Big Blue River in Indiana, a deluge of rain
poured into the remnants, soaking everything…“We’ve about had
it,” [Russell] said…“People are really stressed out.”…Hundreds of
thousands of customers lacked power across the region. Gov. Mitch
Daniels [of Indiana]…declared 13 counties as disaster areas, raising
the total to 23. Jane Jankowski, a spokeswoman for Daniels, said
more than 1,200 people were staying in shelters. “This thing came on
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fast with such a radical deluge of water that people were describing
going from a feeling of security to waist-deep water in a matter or 15
or 20 minutes,” Daniels said.
In Iowa, the result was extensive flooding involving most of the rivers
in the eastern part of the state beginning around June 8th. The flood stage
(i.e., the point at which a body of water floods surrounding areas and
causes damage) of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is12 feet. The previous
record flood occurred about 80 years ago in 1929, when the Cedar River
rose to 20 feet. In 2008, the Cedar reached 20 feet and kept rising, with
weather experts reporting that they expected the waterway to crest at 22
feet. Later they changed this estimate to 24 feet. In fact, the river finally
crested at 31.3 feet, breaking the previous record by more than 11 feet.
Cities like Cedar Rapids and Iowa City were hit hard by the storm’s flood
waters. In Cedar Rapids, for example, the downtown flooded and a rail-
road bridge collapsed, spilling railroad cars filled with rock into the river.
As a result, some Iowans began using the phrase “Iowa‘s Katrina” to refer
to their experience.
Across the region, the economic costs (from flooded fields that could
not be harvested to damaged infrastructure, commercial districts, and
dwellings) are massive (and include potential impacts on fuel prices
because of the loss of corn fields central to the burgeoning biofuel indus-
try, the growth of which has contributed significantly to the expansion of
cornfields into previous buffer zones).
While heavy rains at this time of year are not unusual in the Midwest;
rainfall and other storms of the magnitude seen in 2008 are quite unusu-
al. In all, nine rivers in Iowa hit record flood levels. Iowa’s Governor, Chet
Culver, declared 83 of the state’s 99 counties disaster areas. As one insur-
ance company official (quoted in Burns 2008) noted, “I’ve been in the
business for 30 years, and I can’t remember a couple of weeks following
Memorial Day that had this many storms one right after another.” His
company logged 11,000 claims in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Missouri, nearly double its average number of claims in previous years.
From a climate cycle point of view, flooding of the kind that sub-
merged the Midwest is expected to occur once every 500 years (which
means that hyrologists, those who study the properties, distribution, and
circulation of water on Earth, believe that a flood of this enormity has a
0.2% of occurring in a specific year in a given location). This is the second
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massive flooding of the region to occur since 1993, however. In the earli-
er deluge, known as the Great Flood of 1993, 47 people died, 10,000
homes were destroyed, 75 towns were engulfed in flood waters, and the
region suffered $15 billion in damages, making it one of the most devas-
tating storms in modern US history (although far less than the $41 billion,
or more, in damages caused by Hurricane Katrina or the approximate
combined $25 billion in damages wrought by the back-to-back Gulf Coast
Hurricanes Gustov and Ike in 2008) (Larson 1996; EQECAT 2008a, 2008b).
Moreover, during the last 35 years, there have been four floods in the
Mississippi River basin area that based on their magnitude would have
been characterized as 100-year floods, while relatively large Midwestern
storms that used to occur approximately every 20 years now arrive every
four to six years (Zabarenko 2008).
This emergent pattern of larger, more frequent Midwest flooding has
led some climate scientists to investigate the role of global warming in
changing weather patterns because air warmed by the presence of the
greenhouse gases that now blanket the earth can carry far more water
than cooler air. An analysis of weather data conducted by a group of envi-
ronmental organizations from across the country concluded that there has
been a marked increase in the frequency of heavy rainstorms, with the fre-
quency of “extreme rainfall” increasing by 24% between 1948 and 2006. In
the Midwest, the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased by
20% since the late 1960s, while the number of days per year that see pre-
cipitation greater than four inches has gone up by 50% over the last centu-
ry (National Wildlife Federation 2008). Additionally, there has been a
steady increase in temperature, streamflow and high streamflow across the
United States during the 20th century (Groisman et al. 2002). Over the last
50 years, hydrologists have recorded increases in rates of evaporation;
near-surface humidity; total, low, convective cloudiness (Groisman et al.
2001a, Sun et al. 2001); and early snow cover retreat (Groisman et al.
2001b), as well as an earlier onset of both spring- and summer-like weath-
er conditions, and a rise in thunderstorm activity (Changnon 2001). In
short, there have been multiple indicators of warmer, wetter conditions
that form the context for and fuel increases in damaging flooding events.
While existing science does not yet allow close calibration of specific envi-
ronmental events and broad trends like global warming, as the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007:714) points out,
“Significant increases in observed extreme precipitation have been report-
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ed over some parts of the world, for example over the USA, where the
increase is similar to changes expected under greenhouse warming.”
Further, Kamyar Enshayan, director of an environmental center at the
University of Northern Iowa, has pointed out that the disaster was not
“natural” in the sense that the heavy rains fell on a landscape that had
been radically reengineered by humans. Notes Enshayan (quoted in
Achenbach 2008:A1), “We’ve done numerous things to the landscape that
took away [its] water-absorbing functions.” The changes Enshayan refers
to include: a) the replacement of tall grass prairies (which have now all
but disappeared) with plowed fields of corn and soybeans that, unlike
prairie grasses, have shallow roots that do not hinder the flow of water
run-off as do prairie grasses; b) the thorough draining of developed fields
through the installation of underground pipes; c) the straightening of
streams and creeks, which has reduced the size of their banks while
increasing their rates of water flow; d) the filling in and development of
flood plains; e) the extension of cultivated land ever closer to creeks and
rivers, eliminating the buffer zones that used to hold back rainfall from
moving rapidly from plowed fields to surface water; and f) the biofuel-
motivated removal, between 2007 and 2008, of over 100,000 acres of
land from the Conservation Reserve Program, which pays farmers not to
cultivate tracts of potential farmland, thereby reducing the fallow
acreage with deep roots in the soil.
As a result of these unrestrained efforts to expand food and biofuel
production and human occupation, approximately 90% of the wetlands in
Iowa have disappeared. This loss is noteworthy because wetlands play a
critical role in reducing the frequency and intensity of floods by acting as
natural defenses that slow water flows, absorb great quantities of water,
and store water in the ground. Wetlands, in short, have an integral role in
limiting the health, economic, and social costs of flooding, which is the
most common “natural” hazard in the United States. As a result, wetlands
(and their loss) have a direct impact on human health. The primary
health-based environmental indicators associated with flooding, besides
drowning (which claimed the lives of 16 people in the Midwest deluge),
are infections caused by waterborne pathogens and water-based disease
vectors; contact with polluted water that contains the outflow of over-
whelmed sewage systems, petroleum products, toxins from built environ-
ments, uncollected garbage, and dead animals; and respiratory and neu-
rological diseases caused by mold that forms in damp structures.
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“ For all its value and beauty…. the delta is also on the verge of
collapse” (Yeoman 2008:29-30).
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a giant estuary that was once called the Everglades of the West. Given the
endangered state of the Everglades, and the causes of its decline, the
comparison is now frighteningly accurate.
The making of the modern Delta is the story of California. In 1846,
Edwin Bryant (1848), a Kentucky journalist, visited the area and recorded
a description of the Delta in his journal, which, following the discovery of
gold in California (an event that made the state’s name a household word
throughout the nation), was published and became a best seller:
The Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers empty into the Bay of San
Francisco at the same point, about sixty miles from the Pacific, and
by numerous mouths or sloughs as they are here called. These
sloughs wind through an immense timbered swamp, and constitute
a terraqueous labyrinth of such intricacy, that unskilful [sic] and
inexperienced navigators have been lost for many days in it, and
some, I have been told, have perished, never finding their way out.
With the support of Congress (which in 1850 passed the Swamp and
Overflow Land Act conveying ownership of the Delta to the State of
California), settlers arrived and began to drain the marshes. In the late
19th century, levees, comprised of parallel walls of sun-dried peat bricks,
were built by thousands of Chinese laborers brought in to help control
flooding and create what soon became an archipelago of 70 highly fertile
“peat-dirt” islands (some of which are now 15-20 feet below sea level and
sinking at a pace of about three inches a year) surrounded by 700 miles of
waterways. With its naturally spreading water controlled, the Delta grew
into the pear capital of the world and at one time produced nearly 90% of
the asparagus grown on the planet. Other Delta crops include cherries,
corn, wheat, tomatoes, and wine grapes. Because of its plentiful water
(which now serves the domestic consumption needs of two out of three
Californians, or approximately 23 million people) and agricultural produc-
tivity (yielding a harvest valued at $2 billion a year from just over 300,000
acres of land), the Delta became pivotal to the fast-growing economy of a
rapidly populating and politically powerful state.
From early on, there were fortunes to be made in Delta farming, and
men like Louis Meyers, an orchard magnate—whose four-story 58-room
Italian Renaissance villa with five marble fireplaces, inlaid parquet floors,
rare handmade tile work, and imported wood paneling, on the Delta’s
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The river was also found to contain deadly heavy metals, such as sele-
nium (which has been responsible for bird kills at Kesterson Reservoir in
California’s Central Valley) and mercury, salts like boron, and other chem-
icals that feed rampant algae growth that uses up the oxygen needed by
other aquatic wildlife. Many of these chemicals derive from fertilizers,
which are high in nitrogen and phosphorous. Nitrate compounds that
form from the nitrogen in fertilizer are a health hazard that at sufficient
levels can cause a fatal condition in young children called “blue baby syn-
drome” (i.e., cyanosis).
There is another toxin in the waters of the Delta that is a direct prod-
uct of the growing human population in the region. The toxin, ammonia,
is a common byproduct of human urine and feces. Studies show that the
Sacramento region sewage treatment plant—which discharges treated
wastewater produced by almost one and a half million residents (without
removing ammonia), is the largest single source of ammonia in the Delta.
The ammonia load in the wastewater produced by the residents of
Sacramento has more than doubled since 1985 as a result of rapid urban
growth (Weiser 2008). Moreover, Environmental Protection Agency data
released by the California Sportfishing Protection Alliance (2007) indicate
that the city of Stockton violated its wastewater discharge permit 50 times
in 2005, allowing ammonia to exceed allowed levels per occasion by 23 to
1,245%. In the assessment of Bill Jennings, the executive director of the
Alliance, which sued the city:
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These changes, however, are not the only ecocidal forces pushing the
Delta toward crisis. The earthen levees that keep the farmlands of the
Delta artificially dry are fragile and subject to collapse. On June 3, 2004,
for example, a 350 foot section of the levee 10 miles west of Stockton
crumbled, flooding 12,000 acres of Upper Jones Tract Island and causing
$90 million in damage. Six months were needed to pump the water out of
the area. Over the last 100 years, there have been over 165 levee failures,
and, given the ever present threat of earthquakes in California, the poten-
tial for widespread levee breach is great.
Global warming, which is causing more frequent extreme weather events
and pushing sea levels ever higher (estimated to rise two feet on the
California coast by the end of the century), is another growing threat to
levee integrity (Logan 1990). In addition to causing an increase in mean
water surface, which puts direct pressure on the levees, “sea level rise will
increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water events from the
co-occurrence of high tidal elevations, El Niño–like disturbances, low pres-
sure systems, and high inflows” (Lund et al. 2008:10). The result will be a
considerable boost in the length of time levees are stressed by high water,
significantly raising the likelihood of levee failure. Even without damage to
the levees, a rising ocean will steadily increase the salinity of Delta water.
Ironically, farming the Delta has itself contributed to global warming by
releasing a considerable amount of CO2 from the local peat soil into the
atmosphere. A study completed in 2005 by a team led by Jeffrey Mount,
director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California,
Davis (Mount et al. 2006) projected a 64% chance that up to 20 levees will
fail simultaneously at some point within the next 50 years.
Also threatening the levees, and the rapidly declining fish populations,
is the massive pumping of water out of the Delta. The water goes both to
feed the sprawling, highly profitable, farmlands of the San Joaquin Valley—
a center of US vegetable and fruit production that could not sustain such
high-yield farming based on local rainfall and natural stream flow—and to
provide drinking water to many California residents. Massive pumps, built
at two locations, are capable of drawing out millions of cubic feet of water
per hour and pushing the precious liquid into a series of aqueducts, canals,
and reservoirs. One pumping station moves water into a canal that travels
over a hundred miles to bring water to the fields of the San Joaquin Valley,
allowing the production of $20 billion worth of tomatoes, peppers, cotton,
and other crops. The other pump, part of a system known as the State Water
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representing grave threats to all human futures, there is a critical need for
a new applied narrative of environmental health equity and action.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I want to thank Hans Baer and Pamela Erickson for reading and providing comments
on an earlier draft of this paper.
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