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Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
ASSIGNMENT
LECTURER
STUDENT
Part A
Question 1
You have been recently appointed as the project manager for a large project. The risk
management team for this project has never used quantitative risk analysis in all of
the projects that it has been involved with in the past. Prepare a presentation
outlining the advantages and the techniques of quantitative risk analysis to this risk
management team with the aim of encouraging its use by this team. [14 marks]
Answer 1
Such techniques can be applied with varying levels of effort ranging from
modest to extensively thorough. It is recommended that new users start
slowly, perhaps even ignoring this sub-stage, until a climate of acceptability
has been developed for Project Risk Analysis and Management in the
organisation.
It should be noted that procedures for decision making will need to be modified
if risk analysis is adopted. An example which illustrates this point is the
sanction decision for clients, where estimates of cost and time will be produced
in the form of ranges and associated probabilities rather than single value
Question 1 – Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
figures.
The Quantitative Risk Analysis so called the numerically analyzing the effect
of identified risk on overall project objectives are shown in Figure 1 and 2
below.
Once all risks have been identified, during the qualitative analysis, it may
be appropriate to enter into a detailed quantitative analysis. This will enable
the impacts of the risks to be quantified against the three basic project success
criteria; cost, time and performance. Several techniques have been developed
for analysing the effect of risks on the final cost and time-scale of projects.
However, such techniques do not always readily apply themselves to the
analysis of performance objectives.
Question 1 – Pg 2
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
In practice, a sensitivity analysis will be performed for more than one risk,
perhaps all identified risks, in order to establish those which have a
potentially high impact on the cost or time-scale of the project. The
technique can also be used to address the impact of risk on the
economic return of a project.
Question 1 – Pg 3
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 1 – Pg 4
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
• Influence Diagrams are a relatively new technique for risk analysis. They
provide a powerful means of constructing models of the issues in a project
which are subject to risk. As a result influence diagrams are now used as
the user interface to a computer based risk modelling tool thus allowing
the development of very complex risk models that can be used to analyse
the cost, time and economic parameters of projects.
Question 1 – Pg 5
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
• Potentially lure new business through the use of good quantitative analysis to
tap into projects that were previously out of reach.
• Broaden existing consulting services by adding on cost-effective, high-ROI
security improvement strategies and action plans.
• Better prioritizing of projects – can set priority based on ROI.
• Effective means to manage limited department resources.
• Easier to obtain funding from senior management.
• Improved performance metrics for the company/department as cost & benefit
information can clearly define.
• Less susceptible to issues relating to company politics
• Reduced time requirement for assessing the validity of proposals
• Allows the end results to be tied to the company’s financial objectives more
quickly
Conclusion
Quantitative Risk Management helps to meet the probability of meeting the time and
cost objectives. Helps to prioritizing high-threat risks and allows one to respond
proactively before the problem erupted. Monitoring the risk trends closely shall enable
you to control risk management treats over time.
This shall help you to successfully manage the project risk and able to meet the
project objectives which are completion within the limited time given, within budgeted
cost at acceptable quality, safety and durability.
Question 1 – Pg 6
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 2
b. Explain in some detail how such softwares enable project risk management.
[14 marks]
Answer 2 (a).
There are so many project management software available in the market Project
management software is a computer applications specifically designed to aid
planning and controlling resources, costs and schedules of a project. Software
project management is designed to avoid high failure rate. Software project
management is a sub-discipline of project management.
The various project management software available in the market, are namely
Microsoft Office Project, Primavera, Project Manager Software, Web Based Project
Management Software, Project Tracking Software, Software Project Management
Tools, Project Management Software Tool, CPM Software, PERT Software, Gantt
software and other such as PrioSoft’s Contractor Office, Basecamp, Central
Desktop, Go Plan, Project Desk, Zoho, DotProject, CS Project – Crest Software and
others.
The followings are including but not limited to the following key features of the various
commercial project management softwares;
Question 2- Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Project management software can be very useful especially when there involve large
and multiple larger projects.
Effective work planning features shall be used to plan schedules, allocate resources,
manage budgets, and set realistic expectations for the team, management, and
customers. The data can easily track and estimates such as percent complete,
budget versus actual cost, and earned value by using a set of predefined metrics. For
example in construction works, we shall be able to manage the times and the budget
efficiently.
The following are the summary of features that offers by one of the project
management software called Primavera. It was introduced in early 80’s, since then it
has became very popular tool by schedulers, project managers, QS and claims
consultants. In 1999, Primavera introduced an entirely new Critical Path Method
(CPM) scheduling package designed for enterprise-wide project management which
changed names almost yearly. P3 remained “P3” while this new enterprise-wide
software is now called either P5 (short-hand for Primavera Project Manager™) or
P6™ (for the Enterprise Version 6.)
Primavera is a user friendly data entries for all users even the beginner users shall
also be able to operate the system easily. In other words, primavera is considered as.
In addition the new features are more simplified and reduce training time and speed
up adoption to all users. Primavera P6 are powerful web access for all users and all
projects simultaneously, easy display for all the software functionality, easy Gantt use
Question 2- Pg 2
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
such as graphic tool which objective is to show the estimated time investment for
different tasks or activities in a determined total period, use of control panels for
advanced decision making control and other.
Question 2- Pg 3
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 2- Pg 4
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
2.6
.
Question 2- Pg 5
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
3.1.4.
3.1.5. Report produced and all the informations and charts can be compiled.
3.1.5.1. Estimate to Complete (ETC)
3.1.5.2. Forecast at Completion (FAC)
3.1.5.3. Variance reports. Such as Schedule, Budget and Cost
3.1.6. Corrective action, can be done.
Managing labour and non labour resources and cost /expenses associated with them
by:
Question 2- Pg 6
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Reports indicating health of the project at a certain point of time such as:
Question 2- Pg 7
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
5.5. Number of not scheduled activities completed for the reporting period
5.6. Project Dashboard
5.7. Executive Summary
5.8. Portfolio Analysis and reporting
5.9. Portfolio dashboard and executive summary.
6.0. WBS (Work Breakdown Schedule) analysis and reporting
Implement Earned Value Management System, can create graphs and reports for the
following:
6.1. S-Curves
6.2. Earned Value
6.3. Cost Performance Index (CPI)
6.4. Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
Master Schedule
The master schedule shows all the activities in your project. The CPM (Critical Path
Method) activity bars, progress bars, and activity bars with floats clearly show you the
Question 2- Pg 8
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Target/Baseline Schedule
The Target/baseline Schedule helps each stakeholder and team member quickly see
where they are now, compared to where they should be. Multiple targets/baselines
can be established throughout the project lifetime. When compared with the primary
target/baseline, you can determine true health of the project; the achievements, the
failures, and the problems. This provides legitimacy to change order requests, extra
payment requests, etc.
Pert Schedule
The Pert view helps you quickly evaluate, track, and adjust your network logic. It's a
great tool to have a bird-eye-view of your logic.
Gantt/Bar Charts
The Gantt/Bar chart view also helps you evaluate, track, and adjust your network
logic. It's another tool for improving project quality.
Question 2- Pg 9
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Observe total cost of the project or easily determine the total cost incurred at any
given point in time. Also provides you information on difference between planned and
actual cost.
Cash flow analysis report helps you determine future projections of your project cash
flow. This report is critical for securing adequate amount of funding to properly
execute the project.
Status Report
Can be used to compile weekly and monthly status report. The report tracks items,
such as, meetings minutes, problems discussed, solutions proposed, and other
general information for the stakeholders and project team members.
Change Management
Using project management software, it can help you to manage changes in your
project when they occur. We can also help you determine how these changes affect
the schedule and its cost. With this information in hand, you can answer the question,
'Do we need extra time and funding to complete the work?'
Conflict Resolution
It can help you analyze the project problems and conflicts. If necessary, we assist you
and your legal team by reconstructing important schedule and cost information to
build your case. With the historical information in hand, we can build a project
schedule even after significant progress on the project has occurred. We can then
Question 2- Pg 10
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
analyze the schedule variance and other information like project cost, cost variance,
and earned value.
Coding of Accounts
Using a coding feature, it can help you predict if more time or funding is required for
your project; even help you determine which activities need a special attention.
Monthly Updates
Can perform monthly update of actual work completed base from the information
directly gathered from the department manager, engineers, PM, or from interim
payment certificates.
Project wizard, adding activity wizard, import and export wizard, report wizard and
project link (MS Project). It has also offers users the web-based project functionality
to be ensuring that the web project management gives the project team anywhere,
anytime access to the projects they are assigned to work on.
Import/export Data
Question 2- Pg 11
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 2 (b).
Most large corporations or large projects require project risk analysis to verify
feasibility of the project and whether the project is time or resource sensitive. Risk
analysis helps to identify problem areas and help to formulate a mitigation plan. Risk
Management Softwares shall help in identifying risk factors and handling those risk
factors. Risk should be established early in a software project and continuously
addressed throughout the system lifecycle.
The first step in Risk Management is identification of project risk factors, as risk
cannot be analyzed or handled until they are identified and described in an
understandable way. Risk Identification is an organized, through approach to seeking
out the real risks associated with a program.
Tracking risk enables companies or project for better assess uncertainties. Project
management software aids them in identification, definition, estimation and analyses
of those uncertainties, which improves their competitive position.
Most project management software e.g. Primavera can also be used to identify,
quantify risks, plan, monitor and manage project risk.
Question 2- Pg 12
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
There is a function in Primavera that allows the project team to monitor/track the
work progress versus planned. The purpose is to meet a specific finish date and to
keep eye on the critical path towards success. This shall help the project team to
monitor or trigger the problem shall any of the task are dragged or they can adjust the
completion of non critical task not to finished beyond the critical task.
Tasks with long duration will allow us to see the tasks for which schedule or cost
increases may have a significant impact on the project end date or total cost and able
to see the tasks that represent greater risk to the project finish date and cost.
This process shall allow us to check for tasks that are behind schedule is to see those
tasks for which the actual progress lags behind the planned progress, which may
cause the project end date to slip. By set a baseline for the project, we can see
how tasks progress over time and see whether their start and finish
dates are slipping. Shall this happen the project team can carry out the “catch up”
plan e.g. to increase man power or lengthen the working time to catch up with the
completion time.
Identify the budget risk is the process to view and handle those tasks that are over
budget, likely to become over budget, or likely to cause the entire project to go over
budget. Using project management software e.g. Primavera, tie it budget with the
project plan. By doing this we can monitor the actual cost versus plan, find out shall
the cost are over budget, view cost variances and analyse the project cost.
Question 2- Pg 13
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
To review the cost can be done in many ways either to check the overall status of
project costs at every task, resource, assignment, or for each project or monthly cost.
Increases on cost may put the overall project budget at risk.
By applying a cost over budget filter, we can quickly trigger on cost overruns for each
tasks, assignments or monthly budget. We can also, view the cost variances to
compare the baseline costs for tasks, resources, or assignments with actual costs.
Figure 11: Once your projects are underway, Primavera enables you to store actual
quantity and cost data per update period so you can compare historical information to
the current period using resource profiles and reports.
Question 2- Pg 14
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Identify risk resources is the process to identify whether a project may be at risk shall
they are using highly specialized resources that are/only available through limited
suppliers, if the resources are not being used efficiently, or if they are working on
multiple projects.
In some risk management software they allows to identify specialized skills to see
which resources have skills that might be difficult to replace, identify materials which
can delay the project if the supplier is unable to deliver on time, check for over
allocated or under allocated resources to review each resource's total amount of work
to ensure that neither too much nor too little work has been assigned and identify
resource allocation problems across multiple projects to see which resources are
working at or over their maximum availability. Resource sheet shall give a better
overview of resource allocated will and also to avoid doing mistakes.
Define risks is the process after we identify the potential risks, project management
software e.g. Primavera can easily analyse the impact of risks if they occur.
Project management software e.g. Primavera can be use to analyse risks using
quantitative method by quantifying effects of risk events on the project such as
determining probability of achieving cost and time objectives, calculating contingency
reserves, identifying trends in quantitative analysis and ranking risks by estimated
cost.
PERT can perform to analyze the estimation of duration task by taking into account
the expected task duration is calculated as the weighted average of the most
optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely time estimates. PERT Chart
Question 2- Pg 15
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
contains a complete Critical Path Scheduling that calculates critical and non-critical
tasks. Using PERT chart we identify which tasks gave critical impact on the schedule.
Primavera has views that help users to enter data for PERT analysis: separate views
for optimistic, expected, and pessimistic duration, as well as a PERT entry sheet. The
most powerful view is the last one as it allows the user to enter and see all durations
together.
To assign the probability for each risk, determine how likely risk it is to occur,
Primavera PERT analysis tools to see how likely able to hit the dates. If the tasks
durations in the project plan are differ significantly from those in the PERT analysis,
then the tasks are at higher risk.
PERT chart schedules tasks based on the information you enter such as the duration,
dependencies and constraints. Use the calendar to define workdays, non workdays
and work hours per day. PERT chart automatically calculates the critical path so that
we can see which tasks have the most impact on project schedule.
Question 2- Pg 16
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input
variable from its defined probability distribution, e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal,
triangular, beta and others. These input sample values are then used to calculate the
results such as total project duration, total project cost and project finish time.
Monte Carlo simulations have been proven to be an effective methodology for the
analysis of project schedule with uncertainties; calculate the critical path and slack
values. It’s allowing user to see all the possible outcomes of the decisions and assess
the impact of risk, allowing for better decision. Monte Carlo computerized
mathematical simulation is a technique that allows people to calculate risk in
quantitative analysis and in making a decision.
It’s verified project logic and design. Identify common scheduling pitfalls that may
result in misleading schedule or risk analysis results. To verify whether the plan is
practical based on identified risk events, to pin point likelihood of finishing project on-
time and on-budget, to identify key risk drivers based on criticality, risk sensitivity
and/or duration sensitivity, to reformulate project logic / sequencing based on risk
analysis results, to identify minimum, most likely, and maximum task durations based
on three point estimate.
It’s model both qualitatively and quantitatively positive and negative risk events
(threats and opportunities). Can design a mitigation plan for possible risk events and
give report on project likelihood of completing on-time and on-budget based on both
pre-mitigated and post-mitigated schedule.
Question 2- Pg 17
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
When risks are identified and quantified, the next process is to plan for risk. Risk
planning can take a lot of time and effort therefore users might only plan for the high-
priority risks or the medium- to high-priority risks. Planning involves identifying
triggers for each risk and also identifying proactive, contingency, or mitigation plans
for each one of them.
Start with developing a list of risk events and mitigation strategies to monitor
throughout execution of the project. To help interested parties correct expectations
regarding project deliverables. Determine confidence levels regarding project cost
and schedule success. Determine confidence levels, P-schedules and quick
determination of contingency. Identify key risk drivers. Find out what task or risk event
is causing your schedule to not perform as expected. Determine the combined
probability of achieving both given budgets and completion dates together. “what if…”
analysis by interactively varying cost and schedule thresholds to reveal the resultant
chance of success. Compare scenarios and determine the cost/benefit ratio of
selected mitigation plans.
Question 2- Pg 18
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Figure 14: Sampling of @Risk Result – Tornado chart able to identify the Risk.
Once the risk management plan is in place, the next task is to ensure the project
team to follow them. To take any actions necessary according to the proactive,
mitigation and contingency plans towards successful of project.
Risk Management Software can help users to make decisions on risk management
by showing the most critical risks and how they would occur. By using techniques
such as Monte Carlo analysis, we can also determine the likely cost of each particular
risk. The most important is how to deal with them.
Question 2- Pg 19
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 3
Your company has asked you to determine the financial risks of manufacturing 6,000
units of a product rather than purchasing them from a vendor at $66.50 per unit. The
production line will handle exactly 6,000 units and requires a one-time setup cost of
$50,000. The production cost is $60/unit.
Your manufacturing personnel inform you that some of the units manufatured by them
may be
defective, as shown below:
% defective 0 1 2 3 4
Probability of occurrence 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.06 0.04
On the other hand, the vendor has the following quality assurance:
% defective 0 1 2
Probability of occurrence 0.90 0.085 0.015
Construct a payoff table, and using the expected-value model, determine the financial
risk and whether the make or buy option is best.
[14 marks]
Question 3 – Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 3:
The cost of replacing the expected number defectiveness (assuming that this process
does not produce further defects) is;
% Defective 0 1 2 3 4
Probability of occurrence (%) 40 30 20 6 4
Expected Cost (%) 0 0.30 0.40 0.18 0.16
If the items are purchased from the vendor, the cost of replacing the expected
number of defectives is;
% Defective 0 1 2
Probability of occurrence (%) 0.90 0.085 0.015
Expected Cost (%) 0 0.085 0.030
Question 3 – Pg 2
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 4
Answer 4
The salient aspects of project risk management processes adopted from the
PMBOK of the PMI are inclusive of risk management planning, identification,
analysis, response the probability and impact of positive events, and
decrease the probability and impact of negative events in the project.
These processes interact with each other and with the processes in the other
Knowledge Areas. Each process can involve effort from one or more persons
based on the needs of the project. Each process occurs at least once in every
project and occurs in one or more phases, if the project is divided into phases.
Project risk is always in the future. Risk is an uncertain event or condition that if it
occurs, has an effect on at least one project objective. Objectives can include
scope, schedule, cost, and quality. A cause may be a requirement, assumption,
constraint, or condition that creates the possibility of negative outcomes. For
example, causes could include the requirement of an environmental permit to do
work, or having limited personnel assigned to design the project.
The risk event is that the permitting agency may take longer than planned to
issue a permit, or in the case of an opportunity, limited design personnel available
and assigned may still be able to get the job done on time, thereby accomplishing
work with less resource utilization. If either of these uncertain events occurs,
there may be an impact on the project costs, schedule, or performance. Risk
conditions could include aspects of the project’s or organization’s environment
that may contribute to project risk, such as immature project management
practices, lack of integrated management systems, concurrent multiple projects,
or dependency on external participants who cannot be controlled.
Project risk has its origins in the uncertainty present in all projects. Known risks
are those that have identified and analyzed, making it possible to plan responses
for those risks. Specific unknown risks cannot be managed proactively, which
suggests that the project team should create a contingency plan. A project risk
that has occurred can also be considered an issue.
Question 4 – Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Figure 1: Project Risk Management Overview - Summary of the PMBOK six Project Risk
Management Processes
The following are six major Project Risk Management processes as spell out in
the PMBOK;
Figure 2: Plan Risk Management; Inputs, Tools & Techniques and Outputs.
2) Identify Risks – The process of determining which risks may affect the
project documenting their characteristics.
Question 4 – Pg 3
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
involved in the process so that they can develop and maintain a sense of
ownership of, and responsibility for, the risks and associated risk response
actions. Stakeholders outside the project team may provide additional
objective information. The Risk Identification process is a requirement for the
Qualitative Risk Analysis process.
The assigned team members identify the potential risks (threats and
opportunities), using:
• Risk list.
It is important to specify the risk correctly e.g. a risk has a cause and, if it
occurs, an impact on a project objective. The risk statement structure that
should be followed in specifying identified risks is: Because of the (cause,
condition that is true), (a risk) may occur, leading to an impact (at this stage
unanalyzed) on XX objective where XX is cost, time, scope and or quality.
This structure helps to specify the risk correctly. As an example of the use of
the risk statement structure, the fact that the bridge is built over water is not a
risk, it is a cause. The risk may be unknown sub-surface conditions, which if
they occur may lead to re-design of the supports and pilings. Mitigation could
involve coring at the support location or soil investigation to determine type of
piling to be used and engineering analysis based on the findings, to reduce
the probability of unknown conditions.
Question 4 – Pg 4
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
• Residual risks - Risks that remain even after developing responses to the
project's original risks. Example: You identify delays caused by hazardous
waste issues as one of your primary risks. If you are able to develop a
response that mitigates only problems caused by underground fuel tanks,
you may still have other hazardous waste risks. Our goal is to reduce
residual risks to an acceptable level.
Question 4 – Pg 5
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Qualitative Risk Analysis assesses the priority of identified risks using their
probability of occurring, the corresponding impact on project objectives if the
risks do occur, as well as other factors such as the time frame and risk
tolerance of the project constraints of cost, schedule, scope, quality, safety
and sustainability.
• The project sponsor defines for the risk analysis lead and team the levels
of impact on time, cost, scope and quality that would qualify a risk as
having a very low, low, moderate, high or very high impact on each
objective.
• The project sponsor determines the combinations of probability and impact
that make a risk low, moderate and high priority for each objective in light
of the definitions just mentioned.
Once the definitions are in place, team members assess the identified risks’
probability and impact and then put them into high, moderate, and low risk
Question 4 – Pg 6
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
categories for each project objective (time, cost, scope, quality). They rank
risks by degrees of probability and impact, using the definitions in place, and
include their assessment rationale. This is called “Risk Ranking”.
Team members revisit qualitative risk analysis during the project’s lifecycle.
When the team repeats qualitative analysis for individual risks, trends may
emerge in the results. These trends can indicate the need for more or less
risk management action on particular risks, or whether a risk mitigation plan
is working.
Question 4 – Pg 7
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
type is chosen that best represents the risks discussed in the interview.
Typical distributions usually include the triangular, beta, normal and uniform.
The Department does not require quantitative analysis for projects; however,
the PDT or the District may determine that a project will need to undergo an
in-depth quantitative risk analysis based on the cost, complexity or high
profile of the project.
Question 4 – Pg 8
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
The project manager and the PDT identify which strategy is best for each
risk, and then design specific action(s) to implement that strategy.
Avoid. Risk avoidance involves changing the project plan to eliminate the
risk or to protect the project objectives (time, cost, scope, quality) from its
impact. The team might achieve this by changing scope, adding time, or
adding resources (thus relaxing the so-called “triple constraint”).
Transference reduces the risk only if the contractor is more capable of taking
steps to reduce the risk and does so. Risk transference nearly always
involves payment of a risk premium to the party taking on the risk.
Transference tools can be quite diverse and include, but are not limited to the
use of: insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees,
incentive/disincentive clauses, A+B Contracts, etc.
Risk mitigation may take resources or time and hence may represent a
tradeoff of one objective for another. However, it may still be preferable to
going forward with an unmitigated risk.
Question 4 – Pg 9
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Share. Allocating ownership to a third party who is best able to capture the
opportunity for the benefit of the project. Examples include: forming risk-
sharing partnerships, teams, working with elected officials, special-purpose
companies, joint ventures, etc.
Question 4 – Pg 10
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
i. Contingency Plan:
Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur. In
this case, a response plan, also known as “Contingency Plan”, is
developed by the project team that will only be executed under certain
predefined conditions commonly called “triggers.”
i. Workaround:
Workaround is distinguished from contingency plan in that a
workaround is a recovery plan that is implemented if the event occurs,
whereas a contingency plan is to be implemented if a trigger event
indicates that the risk is very likely to occur.
As with risk identification process, the team should also consider residual
risks, secondary risks, and risk interaction in the risk response planning
process.
Risk monitoring and control keeps track of the identified risks, residual risks,
and new risks. It also monitors the execution of planned strategies on the
identified risks and evaluates their effectiveness.
Risk monitoring and control continues for the life of the project. The list of
project risks changes as the project matures, new risks develop, or
anticipated risks disappear.
Question 4 – Pg 11
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
The individual or a group assigned to each risk (risk owner) reports periodically to
the project manager and the risk team leader on the status of the risk and the
effectiveness of the response plan. The risk owner also reports on any
unanticipated effects, and any mid-course correction that the PDT must consider
in order to mitigate the risk.
Question 4 – Pg 12
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 5
b. Identify the various risk exposures in a large project that can be effectively
managed using insurance.
c. You have $1,000,000 worth of equipment at the job site and wish to minimise your
risk of direct property damage by taking out an insurance policy. The insurance
company provides you with their statistical data as shown below:
Assuming that the insurance company adds on $300 for handling and profit and
usesexpected value to calculate premiums, calculate:
[TOTAL: 70 MARKS]
Question 5 – Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 5:
Likelihood means the chance that a particular risk will occur. It can be expressed as
either a probability for a single event or condition, or a frequency of occurrence for
repeat events. Mean while "risk" or the loss or treat refers to an uncertain adverse
event or condition that if it occurs will result in unfavourable outcomes such as injury,
damage to the environment, delay, or economic loss.
Standard methods exist for defining likelihood and consequence scales which apply
to mostRio Tinto risk analyses. The person leading the risk analysis must either:
• confirm applicability of the standard method for the particular application before
commencing the risk analysis, or
Typically both likelihood and consequence scales are defined with three, four or five
points, usually using the same number of points for likelihood and for consequence
(eg 3x3, 4x4 or 5x5). Four point scales are appropriate for most Rio Tinto risk
analyses, since three point scales may not be sufficiently rigorous to allow adequate
discrimination between different classes of risks, and five point scales may be overly
complex. However 4x4 scales are not mandatory.
However many scale points are selected for a particular risk analysis, it is essential
that their meanings are defined prior to commencing the analysis. An example four
point scale for likelihood is presented in the table below, defining probability values
for single risk events, and time based frequency values for repeated events. Other
types of likelihood definitions may also be required (see the Risk portal for details). In
some circumstances it may be appropriate to define likelihood as a combination of
probability and exposure.
Question 5 – Pg 2
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Example definition scales for the main types of economic consequences are
presented in the Risk portal, against which each identified risk can be assessed.
Since risk analyses must address both threats and opportunities, it is necessary to
define both downside and upside economic consequence scales. Threats have
unfavourable economic consequences (increased capital expenditure or operating
cost, delayed schedule or production, delayed or lost revenue); opportunities have
favourable economic consequences. Economic consequences are scaled to support
risk analyses at different levels in the organisation, since risk acceptance thresholds
for smaller projects or business units have lower absolute values than the thresholds
for larger projects or business units.
Example definition scales for non economic consequences are also presented on the
Risk portal, against which identified risks can be assessed. Definition of upper limits
for unfavourable non economic consequences does not imply that they are
acceptable to Rio Tinto, or Rio Tinto Risk analysis and management guidance 5 that
a consequence at this level would be tolerated under any circumstances. It merely
recognises that such levels of consequence are theoretically possible as upper limits.
Clear and well defined risk acceptance thresholds are required in order to define the
level of risk that can be tolerated. Risk acceptance thresholds are based on defined
scales for likelihood and consequences. Risks are then assessed and classified using
a risk determination matrix, using the same matrix for both threats and opportunities.
An example 4x4 matrix is given here, where both likelihood and consequence are
assessed against four point scales, and the risk acceptance threshold is shown in this
diagram as the white zone (occupied by class II risks).
Question 5 – Pg 3
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
The example matrix has asymmetric zones which give more weight to consequence
than to likelihood. The precise placement of zone boundaries reflects the risk
acceptance threshold.
Where a risk has more than one type of consequence, its position in the matrix is
determined by its highest scoring consequence.The positi on of each risk in the
matrix determines its classification into one of classes I, II, III or IV, as illustrated in
the sample matrix. These classes indicate where the risk is positioned in relation to
the risk acceptance threshold (see above).
Special attention needs to be paid to any risks assessed as having very high negative
consequence and very low likelihood. These may include risks where consequences
include multiple fatalities, a massive environmental incident, or a major plant or mine
failure resulting in severe interruption to business. They may also include aggregation
risks arising from a number of related risks.
Where such risks are identified, they should be noted in the Risk register as special
cases, and treated separately from the standard risk analysis process, with further
urgent evaluation.
Question 5 – Pg 4
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 5:
Business or project decisions vary with situations, which in-turn are fraught with
threats and opportunities. Calculating the Expected Monetary Value of each possible
decision path is a way to quantify each decision in monetary terms. Calculating
Expected Monetary Value by using Decision Trees is a recommended Tool and
Technique for Quantitative Risk Analysis.
The following is Decision Trees example that'll illustrate the use of Decision Tree
Analysis in Project Risk Management.
To use Decision Tree Analysis in Project Risk Management, you need to:
By exploring all possibilities and consequences, you can quantify the decisions and
convince stakeholders. This is known as Decision Tree Analysis. The following
Decision Trees example uses Decision Tree Analysis to help make an informed
Project Risk Management decision. The computations involve calculating the
Expected Monetary Value. Read on to learn more about Decision Trees and Decision
Tree Analysis.
Question 5 – Pg 5
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Decision Trees Example - Building the Decision Tree to Use in Decision Tree
Analysis
• Build the new software: To build the new software, the associated cost is
$500,000.
• Buy the new software: To buy the new software, the associated cost is
$750,000.
• Stay with the legacy software: If the company decides to stay with the legacy
software, the associated cost is mainly maintenance and will amount to
$100,000.
Looking at the options listed above, you can start building the decision trees as
shown in the diagram. By looking at this information, the lobby for staying with the
legacy software would have the strongest case. But, let’s see how it pans out. Read
on.
The Buy the New Software and Build the New Software options will lead to either a
successful deployment or an unsuccessful one. If the deployment is successful then
the impact is zero, because the risk will not have materialized. However, if the
deployment is unsuccessful, then the risk will materialize and the impact is $2 million.
The Stay with the Legacy Software option will lead to only one impact, which is $2
million, because the legacy software is not currently meeting the needs of the
Question 5 – Pg 6
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
company. Nor, will it meet the needs should there be growth. In this example, we
have assumed that the company will have growth.
In this example, Decision Trees analysis will be used to make the project risk
management decision. The next step is to compute the Expected Monetary Value for
each path in the Decision Trees. Let's see how this helps in this Decision Trees
example.
The diagram depicts the decision tree. Now, you can calculate the Expected
Monetary Value for each decision. The Expected Monetary Value associated with
each risk is calculated by multiplying the probability of the risk with the impact. By
doing this, we get the following:
Question 5 – Pg 7
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
View the image above, to see how all the figures above look like in a Decision Tree
after conducting a Decision Tree Analysis. Now let's make the decision in this
Decision Trees example. This will illustrate the role of Decision Trees in Project Risk
Management.
Looking at the Expected Monetary Values computed in this Decision Trees example,
you can see that buying the new software is actually the most cost efficient option,
even though its initial setup cost is the highest. Staying with the legacy software is by
far the most expensive option.
When you conduct a SWOT Analysis to determine whether a business idea is worth
pursuing, there is no quantified data to support your decision. Decision Trees and
Decision tree analysis help you quantify the data, which is then useful in convincing
stakeholders. It is a critical part in Project Risk Management.
Question 5 – Pg 8
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 5:
b) Identify the various risk exposures in a large project that can be effectively
managed using insurance.
A successful large construction project is the result of meticulous planning, the use of
sophisticated machinery and tools and the coming together of several skilled workers.
With so many factors at play, the site is also often fertile ground for mishaps that can
be quite expensive if the contractor is not insured. So, here is a look at the various
issues that a construction company may be faced with if they do not have the
proper insurance for construction project and the different policies that can help a
company to mitigate the various risks associated with construction projects.
Risk involved in the businesses face that are inherent in construction projects, from
project inception through completion and beyond which is physical lost or damage to
the properties. Normally insurance will cover 2 types:
i. Construction all risk (CAR) which covers all types of construction risks, lost
of raw material and includes works brought on-site as part of contracts as
well as temporary works erected or constructed on-site.
ii. Equipment and machinery all risk which covers plant and machinery
construction risks and can be extended to include third-party liability related
to work conducted on contract site.
Most insurance providers have established that contractors are susceptible to the
risk of material damage and there are several policies in the market to mitigate the
losses that may result from such an occurrence. The coverage may not only include
the material used in the construction project but also cover the machinery used to
complete the job.
The policies that protect a contractor from such a risk include the contractor plant
and machinery coverage and also the all risk policy. A contractor who is not insured
against material and machinery damage may have to incur heavy losses in case of
situations that destroy the material and the tools and machinery used on the
construction site.
Question 5 – Pg 9
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Policies such as Civil engineering completed risk insurance and Erection All risk
policies will protect a construction company against damages resulting from factors
such as floods, fire, earthquakes, hurricane, strikes, civil unrest, riots, theft and
vandalism etc.
This type of insurance for construction project offers more comprehensive coverage
and is highly recommended for projects that entail large investments form the
construction company.
Normally this can be covered under the CAR policy but provided it stated in the
clauses. It covers the damage to 3rd parties of properties belongings and body
illness due to the erection of the project.
The contractor may be liable for all third party claims resulting from personal injury
as well as property damage. In order to avail coverage for such liabilities a
construction company should purchase insurance policies such as the public liability
policy, worker’s compensation, and other forms of employer liability policies.
third party liability coverage insurance policy. This insures against accidental bodily
injury or illness and loss of life to third parties as well as accidental loss of, or
damage to property belonging to third parties, caused by an accident at the
construction site.
It’s provides cover for claims brought against the policyholder due to their
professional negligence.
Question 5 – Pg 10
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
5. Workmen Compensation;
It is to protect the company from related to worker injury in work place either fatal or
not, body illness due to disease. By law, a contractor also required to have
employee liability insurance so the safety of all the workers and employees is
assured. The contractor will need to provide safety equipment including safe pants,
helmets, proper tools and equipment to ensure that the employees are working in
conditions which can be considered safe under the terms of such a policy.
6. loss of profits
In some cases, a contractor may be faced with the very real possibility of loss of
profits because the project could not be completed by the deadline. For the
contractor this would mean loss of all the money that was invested in the labor and
machinery and in many cases all the material used for the project. Fortunately, there
is a policy that can protect you from such a situation; this type of insurance for
construction project is known as advance loss of profits policy and it protects you
against the loss of anticipated income/profit from a project.
Question 5 – Pg 11
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Answer 5:
No damage 0.9980 0 0
Mean
Variance:
= 159,792,000,000
Question 5 – Pg 12
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Question 5 – Pg 13
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Part B
Question 1
a. Describe how you would use the Monte Carlo Simulation Technique for project risk
management purposes.
RM RM
‘000,000 ‘000,000
Assets
Net fixed assets 70
Cash and Current assets 30
Total assets 100
Financed By
7% Debentures 30
Equity capital 60
Current liabilities 10
Total capital 100
Its fixed assets are expected to provide a 15% return over the planned investment
horizon.
This firm intends to embark on projects that require an initial sinking of RM 30million
and are expected to provide in aggregate a 20% return with a standard deviation of
30% over the planned investment horizon.
These projects are to be financed wholly by the internally available funds and the
debentures are to be redeemed at the end of the planned investment horizon.
i) evaluate, stating your assumptions, the probability that the firm is financially
better off by embarking on the intended projects;
ii) assuming that it is only able to earn actual returns of 12% on its fixed assets
and 15% on its projects, derive the projected balance sheet at the end of the
planned investment horizon;
Question Part B – Pg 1
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
iii) assuming that the projects' expected returns are normally distributed,
represent the provided information in suitable mathematical notations;
iv) assuming that the projects' expected returns are normally distributed, derive an
expression for the firm’s value at the end of the planned investment horizon;
and
v) stating your other relevant assumptions, derive the probability of its ruin
brought about by embarking on these projects.
[TOTAL: 30 MARKS]
Question Part B – Pg 2
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Part B
Question 1
a. Describe how you would use the Monte Carlo Simulation Technique for
project risk management purposes.
Risks can relate to any aspect of a project, it can be the cost, exposure, schedule,
man power matters, quality and many more. The key to managing risks in a project is
to identify them early and develop an appropriate risk response plan.
But before we can develop a Risk Response Plan, the impact of risks on the project
needs to be quantified. This process is known as quantitative risk analysis wherein
risks are categorized as high or low priority risks depending on the quantum of their
impact on the project. The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
advocates the use of Monte Carlo analysis for performing quantitative risk analysis.
Monte Carlo analysis involves determining the impact of the identified risks by
running simulations to identify the range of possible outcomes for a number of
scenarios. It is starts with the model of the project, either its project schedule or its
cost estimate depending on the objective. The analysis is based on a simultaneous
evaluation of the impact of all identified and quantified risks. The result is a probability
distribution of the projects cost and completion date based on the identified risks in
the project. The degree of uncertainty in each schedule activity and each line-item
cost element is represented by a probability distribution.
While managing a project, we would have faced numerous situations where we have
a list of potential risks for the project, but we might have no clue of their possible
impact on the project. A simplistic approach for taking scheduling confidence into
account is the PERT (also known as Three Point Estimate) technique. This
technique uses three estimates to define an approximation of the activity’s duration
and cost. This technique works as follows: Determine your Optimistic, Pessimistic
and Most Likely estimates for each activity.
The three points are estimated during an interview with subject matter experts who
usually focus on the schedule or cost elements one at a time. The risks that lead to
the three points are recorded for the quantitative risk analysis report and for risk
response planning. A random sampling is performed by using uncertain risk variable
inputs to generate the range of outcomes with a confidence measure for each
outcome. This is typically done by establishing a mathematical model and then
running simulations using this model to estimate the impact of project risks. This
technique helps in forecasting the likely outcome of an event and thereby helps in
making informed project decisions.
Question Part B – Pg 3
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
This is the point where using Monte Carlo Analysis can become so handy. Rather
than using the simplistic approach suggested by the PERT technique, the Monte
Carlo Analysis technique utilizes the three estimates to repeatedly simulate the
project’s completion date, while taking into account the statistical likelihood that each
activity’s duration will be somewhere on the continuum between the three estimates.
From this distribution it is possible to answer such questions as: How likely is the
current plan to come in on schedule or on budget? How much contingency reserve of
time or money is needed to provide the agency with a sufficient degree of certainty?
Using sensitivity analysis, which activities or line-item cost elements contribute the
most to the possibility of overrunning schedule or cost targets?
The result of this analysis will not be a definitive answer, i.e. the answer will not be in
the form of “based on the individual activity duration estimates, the project is
expected to finish of date X”. Rather, the answer will be in the form of “based on the
individual activity duration estimates, there is X% chance that the project will be
complete on or before date Y”.
• It is an easy method for arriving at the likely outcome for an uncertain event
and an associated confidence limit for the outcome. The only pre-requisites
are that you should identify the range limits and the correlation with other
variables.
• It is a useful technique for easing decision-making based on numerical data to
back your decision.
• Monte Carlo simulations are typically useful while analyzing cost and schedule.
With the help of the Monte Carlo analysis, we can add the cost and schedule
risk event to our forecasting model with a greater level of confidence.
• We can also use the Monte Carlo analysis to find the likelihood of meeting our
project milestones and intermediate goals.
Figure 1, below was produced using a Monte Carlo Simulation software, and
highlights the type of outputs that such a tool will produce. The overall purpose of this
figure is to present the likelihood (or a better term – probability) of the project
completing on any particular date.
Question Part B – Pg 4
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
The left axis (Hits) can be used to review the number of times, during the simulation,
that a particular date was identified as a potential completion date. The right axis
(Cumulative Frequency) shows the total accumulative times that the project was
determined to complete on or before a particular date.
Meanwhile the bottom axis (Distribution) shows the identified potential completion
dates, while the height of the bar associated with that date is determined by the
number of times that the date has been identified by the simulation as being the
project’s completion date.
In this example, having analysed the project activity durations, the following
statements can now be made:
• Based on the individual activity duration estimates, there is 80% chance that
the project will be complete on or before 21/05/02.
• Based on the individual activity duration estimates, there is 50% chance that
the project will be complete on or before 15/05/02.
Question Part B – Pg 5
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
The yellow arrow, pointing at 08/05/02, this is the date shown as the project
completion date on the project plan. Now that we’ve performed the risk analysis we
can determine that our chances of actually finishing the project on or before that date
are just 15%!
Conclusion
It also helps in removing any kind of project bias regarding the selection of
alternatives while planning for risks. While running the Monte Carlo simulation, it is
advisable to seek active participation of the key project decision-makers and
stakeholders, specifically while agreeing on the range values of the project risk
variables and the probability distribution patterns to be used. This will go a long way
in building stakeholder confidence in your overall risk-handling capability for the
project. Moreover, this serves as a good opportunity to make them aware of the entire
risk management planning being done for the project.
Though there are numerous benefits of the Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of
the outputs depends on the accuracy of the range values and the correlation
patterns, if any, that you have specified during the simulation. Therefore, you should
practice extreme caution while identifying the correlations and specifying the range
values. Else, the entire effort will go waste and you will not get accurate results.
Monte Carlo probability simulations, can help us to properly carry out the risk analysis
and finally to complete the project timely within the estimated budgert and acceptable
quality, safety and sustainability.
In most large corporations or large projects require project risk analysis to verify
feasibility of the project. Whether the project is time or resource sensitive, risk
analysis helps to identify problem areas and help formulate a mitigation plan. The
following are the reason why we need a risk analysis:
Question Part B – Pg 6
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
v. To identify key risk drivers based on criticality, risk sensitivity and/or duration
sensitivity.
vi. To reformulate project logic / sequencing based on risk analysis results.
vii. To identify minimum, most likely, and maximum task durations based on three
point estimate.
viii. Model both qualitatively and quantitatively positive and negative risk events
(threats and opportunities).
ix. To design a mitigation plan for possible risk events.
x. To report on project likelihood of completing on-time and on-budget based on
both pre-mitigated and post-mitigated schedule.
Question Part B – Pg 7
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
Part B
Question 1
RM(‘000,000) RM(‘000,000)
Assets
Financed by:
7% Debentures 30
Equity capital 60
Current liabilities 10
Its fixed assets are expected to provide a 15% return over the planned investment
horizon.
This firm intends to embark on projects that require an initial sinking of RM 30million
and are expected to provide in aggregate a 20% return with a standard deviation of
30% over the planned investment horizon.
These projects are to be financed wholly by the internally available funds and the
debentures are to be redeemed at the end of the planned investment horizon.
Question Part B – Pg 8
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
i) evaluate, stating your assumptions, the probability that the firm is financially
better off by embarking on the intended projects;
= 81.328 Million
VP1 = 30е0.2x0.7
VP1 = 30е0.14
= 34.508 Million
VP1 = 30е0.2x1.3
VP1 = 30е0.26
= 38.907 Million
Base on the above the company financial status shall become better as the
Fixed asset shall be increased from 70 to 81.328 Million and the current & cash
asset will be either 34.508 Million or 38.907 Million from the current year
amount of 30 Million. Therefore the probability that the firm is financially better
off by embarking on the intended projects is 100% or equal to 1.
Question Part B – Pg 9
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
ii) assuming that it is only able to earn actual returns of 12% on its fixed assets and
15% on its projects, derive the projected balance sheet at the end of the planned
investment horizon;
= 78.9247 Million
= 34.855 Million
7% debentures: 7% x 30 = 2.1
Question Part B – Pg 10
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
RM(‘000,000) RM(‘000,000)
Assets
Financed by:
7% Debentures 30
Current liabilities 10
iii) assuming that the projects' expected returns are normally distributed, represent
the provided information in suitable mathematical notations;
rp ~ N (0.2 , 0.09)
rf ~ 0.12
Question Part B – Pg 11
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Matriculation No.: CGS 00534317
Assignment: EMRM5103
iv) assuming that the projects' expected returns are normally distributed, derive an
expression for the firm’s value at the end of the planned investment horizon; and
v) stating your other relevant assumptions, derive the probability of its ruin brought
about by embarking on these projects.
When V0 < 60 ,
Shall this value is correct, this is meaning the business have no chance to get
bankrupt.
Question Part B – Pg 12
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Assignment: EMRM5103
REFERENCES
4. Harold Kerzner (2009), PhD, Project Management (Tenth Edition), John Wiley
& Son, New Jersy.
10. Rupen Sharma, Edited & published by Michele McDonough, Using a Decision
Trees Example in Project Risk Management to Calculate Expected Monetary
Value, Extracted on 07/04/2011 from website;
http://www.brighthub.com/office/project-
management/articles/48360.aspx#ixzz1JT2AkpIx.
Reference Page i
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Assignment: EMRM5103
REFERENCES (continued)
21. Deborah Lazicki, Risk Management: Tying it all together with Primavera®
2005, Inc. Paul Marin Primavera Systems, Inc.
Reference Page ii
Name: Mohd. Norizam Bin Md. Salleh
Assignment: EMRM5103
REFERENCES (continued)
24. Primavera Project Planner, Planning and Control Guide, Version 3.0,
Primavera Systems, Inc. Three Bala Plaza West Bala Cynwyd, PA 19004.
Extracted on 07/04/2011 from website;
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2539509/Primavera-project-planner-p3.
25. Jay Shukla & Kinjal Trambadia, Primavera – Basics, Extracted on 07/04/2011
from website; http://www.scribd.com/doc/50936792/Primavera-Basics.
26. An Oracle White Paper June 2009, Successfully Managing Contract Risk by
Forming Win-Win Relationships, Oracle Primavera Extracted on 07/04/2011
from website; http://www.scribd.com/doc/50936792/Primavera-Basics.