Daily Commodity Market Update as on Friday, May 20, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 21965 21965 21820 21884 -0.43 Bullion fell as weak U.S. housing and manufacturing data
SILVER 53849 54270 52666 53128 -1.16 and uncertainty about the end of the Federal Reserve's
SPOT $ bond-buying program dragged down commodities across
GOLD 1495.1 1496.55 1492.9 1495.9 0.1 the board.
SILVER 34.96 35.23 34.96 35.13 0.49
PLATINUM 1757.5 1764.24 1754.95 1764.24 0.01

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Crude fell as disappointing economic data fueled worries
CRUDE 4555 4574 4467 4491 -1.96 about oil demand and the International Energy Agency
N.GAS 189.6 189.6 184.5 185.1 -2.81 raised the possibility of releasing emergency stockpiles to
cool prices if producers did not increase supply. Natural-
SPOT $ gas slid after the largest weekly U.S. inventory build so
far this year added pressure to the well-supplied market.
CRUDE 99.76 100.79 98.16 98.44 -1.323176

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Base metals ended lower unable to build on the previous
COPPER 412.5 412.5 404.4 405.15 -1.91
session's sharp rally, as investors sided with caution after
ZINC 98.5 98.7 95.3 96.3 -2.18
another round of weak data suggested the U.S. economic
NICKEL 1120 1124.4 1065.4 1067.9 -4.64 recovery could be stalling.
LEAD 110.4 112.4 109.6 110.8 0.18
ALUMINIUM 115.2 115.45 111.5 112.2 -2.36

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 8966 9002 8950 8981 0.51 COPPER -775 467025
ZINC 2150 2164 2150 2160 0.51 ZINC -450 852125
NICKEL 23700 2514 23700 23850 0.42 NICKEL -48 113970
LEAD 2473 2479 2456 2458 0.29 LEAD 0 316875
ALUMINIUM 2511 2479 2502 2508.5 -0.12 ALUMINIUM -2050 4709825

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18237.79 5457.9 2369.67 1343.6 8427.95 12605.32 9649.03 2861.68 2109.21 23186.77 75.11
0.53 0.55 0.28 0.21 0.24 0.36 0.29 0.07 0.65 0.09 -0.02

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 OPEN
21965
HIGH
21965
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
21820
CLOSE
21884
% CNG
-0.43
VOLUME
27779
OI
11177
RE CNG
-95

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold declined and settled down at -0.43% that is at 21884 on speculation that slowing inflation will
curb demand for the metal as a hedge against rising consumer prices. Federal Reserve Bank of St.
P.P. 21890
Louis President James Bullard said in an interview in New York that the central bank may keep its
monetary policy unchanged until late this year, and that declining inflation expectations have SUP 1 RES 1
lessened the need to begin withdrawing record stimulus. Gold demand gained 11 percent to 981.3 21814 21959
metric tons in the first quarter from a year earlier, the WGC said. Jewelry usage in China, climbed 21 SUP 2 RES 2
percent to a record in the quarter, and the country’s consumption of the metal may double before
21745 22035
2020.Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 50.41,
where as 50DMA is at 21661.36 and gold is trading above the same and getting support at 21814 SUP 3 RES 3
and below could see a test of 21745 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21959, a move 21669 22104

OPEN
53849
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
54270
LOW
52666
CLOSE
53128
% CNG
-1.16
VOLUME
83515
OI
13387
RE CNG
-616

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver fell on Thursday and settled at -1.16% at 53128, as weak U.S. housing and manufacturing
data and uncertainty about the end of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program dragged down
P.P. 53355
commodities across the board. Both bullion and silver are set to end flat this week, as the dollar
headed for its first drop in the last three weeks. The U.S. currency fell on Thursday after the SUP 1 RES 1
previous session's gains as weaker U.S. economic outlook offset worries over euro due to Greece's 52439 54043
uncertain debt situation. Holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares SUP 2 RES 2
Silver Trust , fell to 10,203.73 tonnes by May 19, from 10,446.43 tonnes on May 18. Now technically
51751 54959
market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 39.83, where as 50DMA is at
60107.68 and silver is trading below the same and getting support at 52439 and below could see a SUP 3 RES 3
test of 51751 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 54043, a move above could see prices 50835 55647

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 OPEN
4555
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4574
LOW
4467
CLOSE
4491
% CNG
-1.96
VOLUME
79736
OI
9837
RE CNG
-88

INTRADAY LEVELS
Oil fell for the third day this week settled at -2% at 4449 after the index of U.S. leading indicators
dropped for the first time in 10 months in April and sales of existing U.S. homes declined, signals
P.P. 4511
that fuel demand may weaken as the economy struggles to recover. Oil tumbled 1.7 percent as the
index, the New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to SUP 1 RES 1
six months, unexpectedly decreased by 0.3 percent after a revised 0.7 percent gain in March. 4447 4554
Japan’s economy shrank more than estimated in the first quarter, a government report showed. The SUP 2 RES 2
IEA trimmed its 2011 global oil-demand forecast for the first time this year in a report last week,
4404 4618
saying the year’s price rally is beginning to weigh on consumers, particularly in North America. Now
technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 40.68, where as SUP 3 RES 3
50DMA is at 4791.3 and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4399 and below 4340 4661

OPEN
412.5
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
412.5
LOW
404.4
CLOSE
405.15
% CNG
-1.91
VOLUME
114144
OI
21985
RE CNG
-7.75

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.91% down at 405.15 unable to build
on the previous session's sharp rally, as investors sided with caution after another round of weak
P.P. 407.4
data suggested the U.S. economic recovery could be stalling. One day after the metal posted its
biggest gain in two months, copper prices fell in tandem with other economically-sensitive SUP 1 RES 1
commodities like crude oil, after discouraging U.S. housing and factory data pointed to less economic 402.2 410.3
strength than previously thought. The data triggered renewed selling in the metal and added to SUP 2 RES 2
growing evidence that U.S. economic prospects were far from upbeat. Copper has risen around 6
399.3 415.5
percent since falling to five-month lows last week, but patchy U.S. data, a debt crisis in the euro
zone and persistent concerns about global economic growth mean commodities will remain under SUP 3 RES 3
pressure. For today's session market is looking to take support at 402.2, a break below could see a 394.1 418.4

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 OPEN
98.5
HIGH
98.7
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
95.3
CLOSE
96.3
% CNG
-2.18
VOLUME
23447
OI
7991
RE CNG
-2.1

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.18% down at 96.3 LME zinc prices
overnight continued to fluctuate below USD 2,200/mt during the Asian trading hours. According to
P.P. 96.8
US data overnight, the manufacturing index during May in central Atlantic coast of the US was 3.9,
compared to the forecast of 20, and new home sales fell by 0.8%, also lower than estimates. In this SUP 1 RES 1
context, LME zinc prices overnight plummeted to USD 2,134/mt at the end of trading, with prices 94.8 98.2
closing at USD 2,149/mt, down USD 42/mt. Trading volumes increased by 734 lots to 237,429 lots, SUP 2 RES 2
and total positions decreased by 450 lots to 852,125 lots. SHFE 1107 zinc contract prices are
93.4 100.2
expected to fluctuate between RMB 16,400-16,800/mt today. In yesterday's trading session zinc has
touched the low of 95.3 after opening at 98.5, and finally settled at 96.3. For today's session market SUP 3 RES 3
is looking to take support at 94.8, a break below could see a test of 93.4 and where as resistance is 91.4 101.6

OPEN
1120
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1124
LOW
1065
CLOSE
1067.9
% CNG
-4.64
VOLUME
60530
OI
9711
RE CNG
-49.5

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -4.64% down at 1067.9 tracking LME
nickel which opened at USD 24,600/mt and closed at USD 23,759/mt, down by USD 900/mt from a
P.P. 1086
day earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,850/mt and the lowest price at USD 23,599/mt. LME
base metal prices largely ended with losses overnight, due to downbeat economic data from the US. SUP 1 RES 1
LME nickel prices advanced slightly in the early Asian trading hours, but fluctuated lower in the Asian 1047 1106
afternoon trading hours. Dragged by downbeat economic data, LME nickel prices accelerated SUP 2 RES 2
declines during the European trading hours, and closed USD 900/mt lower, with prices falling below
1027 1145
recent support level of USD 24,000/mt. Economic data from the US real estate sector and
manufacture sector is disappointing. May's manufacturing index in the US mid-Atlantic region was SUP 3 RES 3
3.9, lower than estimation of 20.0 and April's 18.5. For today's session market is looking to take 988 1165

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
115.2
HIGH
115.45
LOW
111.5
CLOSE
112.2
% CNG
-2.36
VOLUME
5015
OI
2888
RE CNG
-2.65

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.36% down at 112.2 aster US
released a series of economic data on May 19th. Although declines in initial claims for jobless
P.P. 113.1
benefits last week exceeded market expectations, housing and manufacturing data were weaker
than expected, triggering investor concerns over the slowing of economic recovery and that the US SUP 1 RES 1
may continue the second round of quantitative easing policies after the policies end by the end of 110.7 114.6
June. As a result, the US dollar index fell to near 75. Although the US dollar index weakened, SUP 2 RES 2
disappointing economic data depressed investor confidence in base metals, and LME aluminum
109.1 117.0
prices trimmed previous gains and dipped to USD 2,483.3/mt. At the tail of trading, LME aluminum
prices bounced back boosted by brisk buying at lower prices, with prices finally closing at USD SUP 3 RES 3
2,511/mt, down 1.91%. For today's session market is looking to take support at 110.7, a break 106.7 118.6

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

189.6
HIGH
189.6
LOW
184.5
CLOSE
185.1
% CNG
-2.81
VOLUME
21849
OI
5073
RE CNG
-5.2

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.81% down at 185.1, dropping to
a one-month low after the U.S. EIA said natural gas inventories rose more-than-expected last week.
P.P. 186.4
It earlier fell as much as 2.15% to $4.099 per mbtu, the lowest price since April 18. The U.S. EIA
said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended May 13 rose by SUP 1 RES 1
92bcf, after increasing by 70bcf in the preceding week. Market had expected U.S. natural gas 183.2 188.3
storage to rise by 90bcf. Supplies climbed 76bcf in the same week a year earlier. The five-year SUP 2 RES 2
average change for the week is an increase of 91bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.919
181.3 191.5
trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 235bcf less than last year at this time and 36bcf below the five-year
average of 1.955 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. For today's session market is looking to take SUP 3 RES 3
support at 183.2, a break below could see a test of 181.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be 178.1 193.4

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 21884 242 539 JULY 53128 686 1528
AUG 22126 297 SEPT 53814 842
OCT 22423 DEC 54656
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 242, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 686, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.43% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 209 1.16% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
- 250. 672 - 911.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE JULY AUG MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
JUNE 4491 47 96 JUNE 405.15 5.45
JULY 4538 49 AUG 410.6
AUG 4587
Spread between crude MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 47, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.45, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
1.96% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 41 -1.91% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
47. 4.15 - 5.45.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 96.3 1.2 MAY 1067.9 9.1
JUNE 97.5 JUNE 1077

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.2, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 9.10, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
2.18% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 0.5 -4.64% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
1.2. 5.60 - 10.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 185.1 4.9 MAY 951.5 -69.5
JUNE 190 JUNE 882

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 4.90, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -2.81% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 3.5 - 4.9.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -69.50, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -1.18% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -84.1 to -57.6.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

11:30am EUR German PPI m/m 0.006 0.004

1:30pm EUR Current Account -5.7B -7.2B
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 0 0
DATA

7:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -12 -12

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Fri 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) slashed the total sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2010-11 sugar
year by 8 lakh tonnes to 242 lakh tonne. At the beginning of the current sugar year (October-September), ISMA had
projected the total sugar output at 255 lakh tonne, but the forecast was later revised downward to 250 lakh tonne.
"Our figure for 2010-11 stands at 242 lakh tonne," ISMA spokesperson said, adding this is the final estimate. The
production figures for sugar were finalised at the organisation's internal meeting in Bangalore today. The latest ISMA
figure is lower than the government's estimate of sugar production in 2010-11 at 245 lakh tonne. Production in
India, the world's second biggest sugar producer and the largest consumer, is expected to rebound this year after a
gap of two years. In 2009-10, production was around 190 lakh tonne. The country's annual demand is pegged at 220
NEWS YOU CAN USE

lakh tonne.

Troubled by a stagnating trend in production, India may soon lose its position as the fourth-largest producer of
rubber in the world. Vietnam, which has seen a fast growth in acreage under rubber in the recent years, may
dislodge India from the fourth slot. The fifth-largest producer of rubber, Vietnam's total planted area saw a
cumulative increase of 3,78,700 hectares between 2003 and 2010. Taking into account this growth, the rubber
industry experts say that Vietnam "will soon be ahead of India" in rubber production. We expect this to happen in
2012," said Vinod T Simon , president of All India Rubber Industries Association . But the cumulative growth in total
planted area achieved by India is 2,30,200 hectares during the same period. Industry's concern stems from the fact
that rubber production in India has not seen any major increase in the last 4-5 years. India's production stood at
8.53 lakh tonne in 2006. Though the production increased slightly to 8.81 lakh tonne in 2008, it declined in the
subsequent years. In 2010 the production stood at 8.51 lakh tonne. Compared to this, the production in Vietnam has
seen a steady increase from 5.55 lakh tonne in 2006 to 6.60 lakh tonne in 2008. It stood at 7.55 lakh tonne in 2010.

India's food price index rose 7.47 percent and the fuel price index climbed 12.11 percent in the year to May 7,
government data showed. In the previous week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 7.70 percent and 12.25
percent respectively, the slowest rise in food prices since end-March 2009.The primary articles price index was up
10.94 percent, compared with an annual rise of 11.96 percent a week earlier.India's weekly food inflation readings
have slowed from the double-digit growth notched for much of 2010, but headline inflation , at 8.66 percent in April,
remains considerably above the central bank's comfort level.

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