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STATISTICS 301—APPLIED STATISTICS, Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Walpole, Myers, Myers, and Ye, Prentice Hall
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Goal: In this section we will tackle the concept of PROBABILITY.
Define: ____________________________________________________________
Let’s find out how you feel about the question of intelligent life in the universe.
a. Do you believe in life elsewhere? Yes ______ No ______ Not Sure ______
b. What do you think is the probability of intelligent life in the universe? ______
________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
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1.Probability
Defn
• Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1. Sometimes they will be denoted by:
Some Examples
• Suppose you flip a fair coin. The probability of getting a Head is 0.50 or 50%. If we
flipped the coin once, it would not be unusual or unexpected to get a head or to not
get a head.
• Suppose we roll a fair die—this means that the die has six sides and each side has the
same probability of coming up. The probability of any one of the six faces of the die
coming up is 1 out of 6 or about 0.1667 or 17%. Hence, when we roll this die and a “5”
comes up, we should not be too surprised, since 5 is not that unusual an event.
• Suppose you purchase one Mega Million Lottery ticket in the hopes of winning the $73
million top prize. The chances of winning the top prize in Mega Millions purchasing
only one ticket is 0.000000007399. Note that this is pretty small number when
written as a decimal. Even written as a percentage, 0.0000007399% it is still small
and pretty hard to interpret. However, if we write it as a fraction, we obtain
1
or you have one chance in 135 million in winning so if you win you just
135,145,920
encountered a VERY, VERY, VERY rare and unusual event!
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Notation and Terminology
Sample Space
Defn: A SAMPLE SPACE is the collection of all outcomes/elements (O1, O2, … ) from
an “experiment”
Notation: S = { }
Sample Spaces are not unique! Consider the following example: Toss three coins
(penny, nickel, and dime). Define two different sample spaces for this experiment.
1. S=
2. S =
Event
Probability
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More on Events (Rules concerning Combinations of Events)
Intersection
Examples
Union
Defn: The UNION is the set of outcomes/elements in any or all of the events
Defn: Events are M.E. iff A ∩ B = empty or null set = φ, ie the set of NO
ELEMENTS
Example:
Complement
Notation: A’ or Ac or Ā
Facts
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2.Probability Rules
3. Pr{ S } = 1
Example #1
S=
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Example #2
S=
Defn: Outcomes in S are E.L. iff Pr{ any outcome } = 1 / number of outcomes in S
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RULES/THEOREMS/RESULTS CONCERNING PROBABILITY (aka Shortcuts)
The following are a series of results that allow you to find probabilities for one event,
using probabilities of other events.
Example:
Select a card at random from a well shuffled poker deck. Let A = face card
and B = red suited card. What is the probability we get a face card or a red
suited card?
3. Independent Events
Example 1:
Select a card at random from a well shuffled poker deck. Let A = face card
and B = red suited card. Are A and B independent?
Example 2: Toss a dime and a nickel. Are the outcomes on the dime and nickel
independent? Why?
Example 3: Toss a penny twice. Are the outcomes on the different tosses
independent? Why?
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RULES/THEOREMS/RESULTS CONCERNING PROBABILITY (Continued)
4. Conditional Probability
Example: Using Class data, here is the table of Gender & Hair Color using MTB
FEMALE 1 15 32 0 2 50
2.00 30.00 64.00 0.00 4.00 100.00
MALE 7 13 51 1 3 75
9.33 17.33 68.00 1.33 4.00 100.00
All 8 28 83 1 5 125
6.40 22.40 66.40 0.80 4.00 100.00
Select a student at random, let BL = get a “blonde haired student” and F = female
Pr { BL } =
Pr { F } =
Pr { BL ∩ F } =
Notes
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4. Conditional Probability (Continued)
Pr { A | B } = Pr { A ∩ B } / Pr { B }, AS LONG AS Pr { B } > 0
Pr{ B } * Pr{ A | B }
b. A ∪ A’ = S
d. ( B ∩ A ) ∪ ( B ∩ A’ ) = B
Pr{ A | B } = 1 – Pr{ A’ | B }
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Example #1
The table below shows the number of jobs lost (in thousands) in the United States over a
three year period. (There were 5,584,000 jobs lost.)
Suppose that a person is randomly selected from the group of all persons who lost their jobs
over the three year period.
P(A) =
(b) Given that the person selected lost the job due to the fact that the position was
abolished, what is the probability that the person is male?
P(A|B) =
(c) Given that the person selected is male, what is the probability that he lost the job
because the position was abolished?
P(B|A) =
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Example #2
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Example #3
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Example #4
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SUMMARY OF PROBABILITY
• 0 ≤ Pr{ A } ≤ 1
• Pr{ S } = 1
• Pr { A | B } = Pr { A ∩ B } / Pr { B }, AS LONG AS Pr { B } > 0
• A ∪ A’ = S
• ( B ∩ A ) ∪ ( B ∩ A’ ) = B
Pr{ A | B } = 1 – Pr{ A’ | B }
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