FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT

PAGES: 8 WARSAW, JUNE 25, 2010

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW

MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

IN FOCUS / • A series of (not-always positive) surprises • pages 2-3

MACROECONOMICS

FIXED INCOME • The storm. • page 3

MONEY MARKET • Shortest rates stabilized • page 4

• Real economy data quite surprising

FOREIGN EXCHANGE • Zloty boxed in range • pages 4-5

• Implied volatility higher

MARKET PRICES • page 6

CONTACT LIST • page 7
DISCLAIMER • page 8

PREVIEW: The week of June 25th 2010 to July 1st 2010

Date of Pe- BRE Consen-
Indicator Last Comment
release riod forecast sus
A breeze of hawkishness from some rate-setters. Combi-
nation of MPC comments and stronger real sphere data
MPC Decision Jun 30 - 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% (and possibly PPI surge) constitute a minor point risk
(limited to this very meeting only) of bias change.
MinFin’s inflation
Jul 1 Jun 1.9-2.0% - 2.2% Minor rises in fuels, Food prices above seasonal pattern.
forecast
A slight turnaround in domestic situation reflected in SA
PMI Index Jul 1 Jun 51.9% - 52.2% business tendency indicators but falling PMIs abroad and
overall pessimism may drag the PMI further down.

Please read the disclaimer at the end of this document

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

In Focus / Macroeconomics
A series of (not-always positive) surprises
Last days proved to be quite surprising. On the macro side we had a very decent growth of in-
dustrial output and retail sales. On the other hand, presidential elections have not confirmed
Komorowski easy-win scenario and his advantage over Kaczynski shrank to only 5pp. – half of
the margin stipulated by the earlier public opinion polls. Second round of the elections may add a
little trill then, but Komorowski’s victory seems secured.

Industrial output and producer prices. Industrial output grew by stunning 14%, reaching
thereby almost twice the market consensus. Such a solid growth stood at odds not only with
business tendency indicators provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), but also with the
PMIs which leveled-off a bit in May. Quick look at the leading manufacturing sections reveals the
drivers of growth remain at highly export-oriented enterprises (electronics, metal industry), which
– given additional competitive boost given by 5% weaker zloty, might have been able to swiftly
manage their spare capacities and meet rising orders from abroad (especially from the German
economy). Owing to the further rises of Ifo Business Situation index (which reflects mainly a
decent flow of orders for manufacturing), we may expect the boost for domestic manufacturing to
continue (a slight turnaround in seasonally adjusted GUS business tendency indicators for June).

Decent output was accompanied by a sharp rise in producer prices. Given the behavior of the
EURPLN rate (a fundamental change of the regime owing to global risk aversion is very likely)
and firms’ price expectations, the development is not of one-off origin and will continue in coming
months. The possibility of pass-through from PPI to CPI is rising and may coincide with fading
base effects, ultimately leading CPI substantially higher (2.8% in the year end and farther in
2011).

Retail sales. May brought an acceleration in consumer spending (retail sales +4.3% y/y vs -1.6%
in April), however, it stood at odds with business tendency indicators (possibly lagging in this
case) and – more importantly – occurred contrary to the further negative blow to VAT revenues
(which seemed to beautifully corroborate our lower sales forecast…). The composition of spend-
ing suggests that not only there is a rebound after weaker April, but also that the process of
wealth restoration has probably began (although we expect it to take-off in full-throttle in the
summer months). At this stage we do not see any significant risk which could spoil the ongoing
recovery in private consumption; tightening labor market seems to be the major driver on this
field.

MPC decision. Current macro data may prove some MPC members that economic recovery is
on its way. The constellation of data and recent more hawkish comments from some of the MPC
members (Zielinska-Glebocka with her 50bps corrective hike in Autumn and Glapinski sticking to
the scenario of 50bps hike in the year end) may then pose a minor risk of bias change at the
looming MPC meeting (next Wednesday). On the one hand there is probably even higher projec-
tion (especially monetary-policy relevant 2012) and on the other the corrective nature of hikes
proposed by some rate-setters (in such a scenario the change of bias would have been a non-
intended sign of cycle of monetary tightening which seems hardly acceptable for the MPC at the
moment) and ongoing risks to the economy from the spillover of debt problems and domestic
fiscal position.

Elections. Komorowski 41,54%, Kaczynski 36,46%, Napieralski 13,68%. Contrary to some bi-
ased polls stipulating easy Komorowski victory, first round of elections was a surprise. The most
probable theory explaining the final results suggests the extra votes gained by Napieralski are
those discouraged by dull Komorowski presidential campaign and his over-reliance on Tusk.
Although we think that Komorowski victory in the second round is more or less secured right now
because it will be much easier for him to win leftist votes than for Kaczynski (criticizing the left at
all times), there were no fresh public opinion polls (and given the recent blow, the advantage of
Komorowski will have to be really high in order to be claimed safe) to corroborate such a sce-
nario and there will be some uncertainty, especially on the back of recent Rostowski comments
suggesting that the win of Kaczynski would be disastrous for the state of public finance. Just a
small incentive for voters? It is hardly imaginable that prospective Komorowski supporters will
pay any attention to such a reasoning, though. It looks like a unnecessary stress for bonds mar-
kets, especially in the current market regime.

PAGE 2 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

Indicator 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MID-TERM
GDP y/y (%) 6.5 4.8 1.7 3.0 4.2
FORECATS
Inflation rate (%, average) 2.4 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.9
Current account (% of GDP, average) -4.5 -5.3 -1.6 -2.7 -3.7
Unemployment rate (end-of-year) 11.4 9.5 11.9 12.1 10.9
NBP repo rate (end-of-year) 5.00 5.00 3.50 3.75 5.00

Indicator 2009 2010

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP y/y (%) 1.7 3.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.9
Inflation rate (%, average) 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.1 2.2 2.8
NBP repo rate (end-of-quarter) 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.75
Bold denotes chages from the last release with arrows showing the direction of chages

Fixed Income
Last week we had finally some volatility on the FI market. The move started after much higher
The storm. than expected PPI and Industrial Output. Initial reaction took 6x9 at 4.19 as the high and 5y to
5.20 (20 and 15 bp up respectively). After presidential election results, which showed much
smaller difference between candidates than polls, market started to sell bonds, but even with
information on unfixing the Yuan and EURPLN at 4.01 couldn’t help bond market. PS0415 is
actually in downtrend marking 6 straight day in a row with lower price on the closing fixing
(PS0415 is down some 110 cents in week). Switch auction came with low price and reasonably
small amount of fresh bonds, but even this made market to drift lower in prices. We started to
see unwinds of ASW positions as PS0415 cheapened some 10bp (sic!).

Generally it looks the market is in pretty bad shape, especially on the bond side. Comments from
Minister of Finance Rostowski are certainly adding fuel to the fire (as the coming election result
is far from being clear and positioning of investors is rather heavy). Economic figures which
market has been neglecting for sometime are clearly pointing towards higher CPI pressure on
the horizon (wages, employment, PPI) and dynamics of EURPLN is definitely not helping to
rebalance the economy at the moment. So far the bond market has been hit, but we are starting
to expect MPC to have a more hawkish rhetoric once they will see inflation projection and influ-
ence of exchange rate on PPI and CPI respectively. Hardly to neglect is the fact of proper risk
premium, and for us it clearly starts to look as if Poland would be in need to rise rates in order to
restore one. All in all, we expect the rise of yields to continue. 5Y sector is to reflect general
gloomy outlook pretty soon. More restrictive monetary policy may exert upward pressure on
short-rates (higher FRA rates). Poland is deconverging, and so will monetary policy. We have a
feeling the storm has just started.

avg yield last auction

AUCTIONS next auc. offer
last date
13 Week T-bills - - 6.142% 12/9/2008
26 Week T-bills - - 4.456% 5/4/2009
52 Week T-bills 6/28/2010 - 3.987% 6/21/2010
2Y T-bond OK0712 7/7/2010 - 4.675% 6/2/2010
5Y T-bond PS0415 7/14/2010 - 5.156% 5/12/2010
10Y T-bond DS1020 7/21/2010 - 5.790% 6/16/2010
20Y T-bond WS0429 7/21/2010 - 6.170% 9/23/2009

PAGE 3 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

Money Market
Shortest rates stabilized Liquidity was not a problem this week. Growing surplus, stable rates, we think its about time to
get used to the new environment (stability of the polonia around the main rate – one of the
Real economy data quite monetary policy goals, which might be finally achieved? There is a probability that should be
surprising definitely considered). If we sum up this conclusion with the last week’s figures, no wonder that
ois curve went significantly up. Next step would be to push it even higher if one believes in
above scenario. Speaking of figures: industrial output 14% vs 8.1% expected, retail sales 4.3 vs
3.1% expected, wages 4.8 vs 3.8% expected. Bearish for interest rates quite well justified.

FIXED INCOME & 6.3 IRS curve Spread 5 vs 2 2Y 5Y

6.1 16 / 06 / 10 7.0 0.8
MONEY MARKET 5.9
6.8
6.6
6.4
0.7
0.6
5.7 23 / 06 / 10 0.5
CHARTS 5.5
6.2
6.0
5.8
0.4
0.3
5.3 5.6 0.2
5.4 0.1
5.1 5.2 0.0
5.0 -0.1
4.9 4.8 -0.2
4.6 -0.3
4.7 4.4
4.2 -0.4
4.5 4.0 -0.5
4.3 3.8 -0.6
4.1 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0
l 0p 0v 0n 0 r 0 y 0 l 0p 0v 0n 0 r 0 0 l 0p 0v 0n 0 r 0 0 l 0p 0 v 0n 1 r 1
3.9 JuSe No Ja Ma a JuSe No Ja ma ay JuSe No Ja Ma ay JuS e No Ja Ma
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 242 0 2 0 2 2 21 24 M2420 2 0 2 2 20 21 M1716 1 4 2 0 19 20 M2016 1 6 1 5 16

5.4 6/24/2010 2.00 Assets swaps 19 / 06 / 10

1.80
5.1 25 / 06 / 10
1.60
4.8 1.40
4.5 4.37 1.20
4.14 1.00
4.2 3.90 0.80
3.86 3.87
3.9 0.60 0.34 0.43
3.6 0.40 0.06
0.20
3.3
0.00
3.0 -0.20
WIBOR 1x4 3x6 6x9 9x12 -0.40
3m 2Y 5Y 10Y

Foreign Exchange
Although this week Zloty has lost 2.5% since Monday’s open at 4.0150, bigger picture remains
the same, since mid-May we trade 4.04-4.20 range. Last 4.20 top was followed by mentioned
Zloty boxed in range 4.0150 bottom ( market euphoria, on news of bigger CNY flexibility) and then EURPLN rate has
rebound to the mid of range (4.12). Zloty is still a hostage to the global sentiment, and the im-
pact of ongoing presidential elections is limited (at least for the time being). Correlation of
EURPLN with EURUSD cross has lowered to -0.35 %, but with EURJPY increased to -0.85% .

Difference between Monday’s curve (4.0150) and Thursday’s one (4.12) is the difference of the
short end, 1M EURPLN ATM 12.25% (mid) against to 13.75% (mid), whilst long end was traded
Implied volatility higher steady at 12.5% mid. Whole move was more supported by underling higher levels than realized
volatility which according to relatively stable trend amounted to 8%. Weaker Zloty was also re-
flected in smile change - 3M 25D EURPLN RR from 3.25 to 3.75. As an effect of lower correla-
tion with EURUSD cross, EURPLN vs USDPLN currency spread is traded, despite higher spot,
at similar, 8.5 level.

Short-term forecasts: SPOT

Main supports / resistances:
EUR/PLN: 4.0400 / 4.2000
USD/PLN: 3.2400 / 3.4000

Zloty seems to be driven by external environment’s weakness. We remain optimists concerning

the future zloty strength.

PAGE 4 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

OPTIONS

Influence of periods of low realized volatility is netted out by days of boosted one. Sentiment
fluctuations provides enough bargains to look for higher gamma. However, it has to be taken
into account that the historical volatility is now heading lower. From the Vega point of view it is
possible to see some downward potential, although as soon as situation calm down, the ten-
dency may be somehow (temporarily?) disturbed.

FX CHARTS 28.0 0 Bias from the old parity (%)

27.0
USD/PLN volatility curve
-5
26.0 -10
25.0
-15
24.0
-20
23.0
-25
22.0
21.0 -30
20.0 -35
19.0 -40
16 / 06 / 10
18.0

05 S ul 07

16 Auul 009
2 c aj 6
07 Oie 6
02 D ct 06
248 Meb 06
1M r 7
118 Jay 07
31 Nep 07
22 Dov 07
1 F ec 07
1 7 Aeb 07
063 J pr 08
30 Aun 08
24 Sug 08
2 Nep 08
1 0 J ov 08
083 Man 08
0M r 9
252 Jay 09
10 O g 9
04 D ct 09
M b 09
ar 10
10
132 sze 006

2 F ec 06

30 Feec 09
28 mar 0

a 0

a 0
17.0 23 / 06 / 10

4m
16.0

8
3.8 USD/PLN 55 EURPLN volatility 5
4.9 50
3.6 4.7
3.4 EUR/PLN 4.5 45 0
3.2 4.3 40
3 4.1 35 -5
2.8 3.9 30
3.7 25 Spread 1Y vs 1M -10
2.6 3.5 1M
2.4 20
3.3 15 1Y -15
2.2 3.1
2 2.9 10
5 -20
2 J v 7
256 Man 06

204 Jay 07
19 Seul 07

15 M n 7

115 Jay 08
07 Seul 08

07 M n 8
016 Jay 09
2 S ul 9
26 No9/06

2M r 7

18 N p 07
17 Jaov 07

1M r 8

09 N p 08
09 Jaov 08

0M r 9

288 Oep 09
24 Dect 09

Apb 19
r 10
0
23 Fe c 09

262 Jay 08
17 Auul 008

04 S ul 09
28 Nep 06
21 Dov 06
17 Feec 06
1 A b 06
063 J pr 07
28 Aun 07
22 Sug 07
1 N p 07
1 8 J ov 07
072 Man 07
0M r 8

11 O g 8
06 D ct 08
271 Aeb 08
2 r 9
111 Jay 09
30 N p 09
23 Dov 09
Feec 09
b 09
10
0 F c 8
0
0

a 0

a 0

a 0

a 0

e 0

p 0
27 8/0ie

02 S ul
2 s

e
088 J

M
1

PAGE 5 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

MARKET PRICES UPDATE

Money market rates (Closing mid-market levels)
date 3M 6M 1Y
MONEY MARKET FXSW WIBOR FXSW WIBOR FXSW WIBOR
RATES 17/06/10 3.71% 3.85% 3.90% 3.91% 4.14% 4.14%
18/06/10 3.70% 3.85% 3.87% 3.89% 4.13% 6.59%
21/06/10 3.71% 3.85% 3.87% 6.49% 4.15% 4.14%
22/06/10 3.78% 3.86% 3.90% 3.89% 4.15% 4.14%
23/06/10 3.79% 3.86% 3.86% 3.89% 4.15% 4.14%

FRA Market Rates (Closing mid-market levels)

FRA MARKET RATES
date 1X4 3X6 6X9 9X12 6X12
17/06/10 3.87% 3.88% 4.00% 4.20% 4.19%
18/06/10 3.87% 3.88% 4.00% 4.19% 4.21%
21/06/10 3.86% 3.88% 4.01% 4.20% 4.21%
22/06/10 3.88% 3.90% 4.11% 4.31% 4.30%
23/06/10 3.87% 3.89% 4.10% 4.34% 4.33%

FIXED INCOME MAR- Fixed Income Market Rates (Closing mid-market levels)
KET RATES date 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y
WIBOR TB IRS OK0112 IRS PS0511 IRS DS1017
17/06/10 4.14% 3.96% 4.45% 4.35% 5.13% 5.09% 5.40% 5.79%
18/06/10 6.59% 3.99% 4.55% 4.45% 5.20% 5.20% 5.41% 5.83%
21/06/10 4.14% 4.00% 4.58% 4.44% 5.19% 5.20% 5.43% 5.83%
22/06/10 4.14% 4.01% 4.62% 4.49% 5.23% 5.24% 5.43% 5.87%
23/06/10 4.14% 4.00% 4.62% 4.48% 5.23% 5.29% 5.45% 5.88%

PRIMARY MARKET Last Primary Market Rates

RATES au. date maturity avg price avg yield supply demand sold
52W TB 10/06/21 11/06/21 96.125 3.99% 1000 1871 944
OK0712 10/04/07 12/07/25 89.301 4.54% 3000 6726 2999
PS0415 09/04/21 15/04/25 102.209 4.99% 3000 6623 3000
DS1019 10/06/16 19/04/25 95.807 5.79% 3000 2965 2430

FX VOLATILITY USD/PLN 0-delta stradle 25-delta RR 25-delta FLY

date 1M 3M 6M 1Y 1M 1Y 1M 1Y
17/06/10 21.50 21.25 21.15 21.00 5.25 6.40 0.75 0.95
18/06/10 21.25 21.00 21.00 21.00 5.25 6.40 0.75 0.95
21/06/10 20.75 20.75 20.75 20.75 4.50 5.70 0.75 0.95
22/06/10 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.00 4.50 5.70 0.75 0.95
23/06/10 21.25 21.25 21.00 21.00 4.50 5.70 0.75 0.95

PLN spot performance

PLN SPOT PER-
date USD/PLN EUR/PLN bias
FORMANCE
17/06/10 3.3095 4.0811 -13.17%
18/06/10 3.2864 4.0732 -10.75%
21/06/10 3.2463 4.0300 -11.13%
22/06/10 3.2912 4.0535 -11.75%
23/06/10 3.3054 4.0587 -11.87%
Note: parity on 11/04/00 – USD= 4.3806, EUR=4.2196, basket share 50:50
Mid-market volatility of vanilla option strategies

PAGE 6 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

Contact Details

Forex (BREX) - FX Spot &Options

BRE BANK SA Marcin Turkiewicz (+48 22 829 01 84) Marcin.turkiewicz@brebank.pl
Jakub Wiraszka (+48 22 829 01 73)
Tomasz Chmielarski (+48 22 829 01 78)
Ul. Senatorska
18 Fixed Income (BREP) - FRA, IRS, T-Bonds, T-Bills
00-950 Warszawa Łukasz Barwicki (+48 22 829 01 93) Lukasz.barwicki@brebank.pl
P.O. Box 728 Paweł Białczyński (+48 22 829 01 86)
Poland
MM (BREP) - MM, FX Swaps
Bartłomiej Małocha (+48 22 829 01 77) Bartlomiej.malocha@brebank.pl
Tomasz Wołosz (+48 22 829 01 74)

Structured Products (BREX)

Reuters Pages: Jaroslaw Stolarczyk (+48 22 829 01 67) Jaroslaw.stolarczyk@brebank.pl
BREX, BREY, Jacek Derezinski (+48 22 829 01 69)
and BRET
Institutional Sales (BRES)
Bloomberg: BRE Inga Gaszkowska-Gębska (+48 22 829 12 05)

Research
SWIFT: Ernest Pytlarczyk, PhD, CFA (+48 22 829 01 66) Research@brebank.pl
BREXPLPW Marcin Mazurek (+48 22 829 0183)

www.brebank.pl
Financial Markets Department
Phone (+48 22 829 02 03)
Fax (+48 22 829 02 45)

Treasury Department
Phone (+48 22 829 02 02)
Fax (+48 22 829 02 01)

Financial Institutions Department

Phone (+48 22 829 01 20)
Fax (+48 22 829 01 21)

Back Office
Phone (+48 22 829 04 02)
Fax (+48 22 829 04 03)

Custody Services
Phone (+48 22 829 13 50)
Fax

PAGE 7 June 25, 2010

 POLAND WEEKLY REVIEW FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPARTMENT, BRE BANK SA
CO-BRANDED WITH
COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

Disclaimer

Distribution and use of this publication

This document has been created and published by the Corporates & Markets division of Commerzbank AG, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
(“Commerzbank”) and BRE Bank, a subsidiary of Commerzbank.
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets (CBCM) is the investment banking division of Commerzbank, integrating debt, equities, interest
rates and foreign exchange, with specific expertise in corporate risk and capital structuring.
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vice. It is not intended to be and should not be construed as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the
financial instruments and/or securities mentioned in this document and will not form the basis or a part of any contract.
Any information in this document is based on data obtained from sources believed by Commerzbank and BRE Bank to be reliable, but
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BRE Bank.
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PAGE 8 June 25, 2010