CTRP  Earnings  Worksheet

Current Period (Q1  2011) Price  Targets Low High CTRP  Last  Price $                                46.36
EPS Sales EPS  Guidance $                  47.41 $        49.47 P/E  Multiplier                                193.17
Actual $              0.24 $        124.32 EPS  G  +  D $                  56.28 $        58.73 P/E  Current 42
Estimate $              0.21 $        111.25 EPS  G  +  D  +S $                  67.44 $        70.36
Surprise 12.68% 11.75%
Guidance N/A $        103.15 EPS Sales Surprise Company  Guidance
YoY  Growth 26.32% 44.64% Q1  2011 Q2  2011  @  15% Q2  2011  @  20%
Guidance* $                      0.23 $    103.15 20.53% $                                  117.89 $                            123.00
Estimate $                      0.28 $    111.25 11.75% $                                  132.00 $                            132.00
Next Period (Q2  2011)
EPS Sales H&C  Outlook Q2  2011  @  15% Q2  2011  @  20%
Estimate $              0.28 $        131.13 Sales  Guidance $                                  117.89 $                            123.00
Guidance** N/A $        120.00 Sales  Guidance  +  Delta $                                  127.15 $                            132.66
Sales  Guidance  +  Delta  +  Surprise $                                  134.81 $                            140.66
Prior Period (Q4  2010) EPS  Guidance* $                                            0.25 $                                    0.26
EPS Sales EPS  Guidance  +Delta $                                            0.29 $                                    0.30
Actual $              0.30 $        119.26 EPS  Guidance  +Delta+Surprise $                                            0.35 $                                    0.36

Delta  of  Sale  Guidance  to  Estimate 7.85%

Average Surprise Since 2006 Delta  of  EPS  Guidance  to  Sales 18.71%
EPS Sales
Q1 4.32% 7.86%
Q2 19.82% 6.03%
Q3 180.93% 1.46%
Q4 32.92% 0.05% EPS  and  Sales  Delta  is  the  difference  from  company  guidance  to  estimate  from  Q1  2011
Overall 49.82% 4.43% *  EPS  Guidance  Interpreted  from  average  of  Sales  Guidance
CTRP  Company  Sales  Growth  Guidance  15  -­‐20%
**  Average  of  Range

5/17/2011 Estimates  only.  For  Internal  Use  only

Basic  Company  Data Data  as  of:   May  17,  2011 Current  Price $46.36
Symbol CTRP CTRIP.COM  INTERNATIONAL-­‐ADR H&C  Composite  Score

8.3
Description Ctrip.com  International,  Ltd.  is  a  consolidator  of  hotel  accommodations  and
airline  tickets  in  China.
Strong  Buy

Sector Consumer  Discretionary

Industry Consumer  Services 0 1 2 3 4 5
Last  Report  Date 5/16/2011 Technical  Score Fundamental  Score
Earnings  Date 8/9/2011 IPO  Date        12/9/2003
Fundamentals Technicals
Market  Cap.  $6.3  B BETA 1.40 Price $46.36 MACD Overbought
Price/Earnings 42.73 1Yr.  EPS  Growth  Rate  % 55.56% 50-­‐Day  MA $43.69 Stochastics Trend  Down
Forward  Price/Earnings 24.58 5Yr.  Avg.  EPS  Growth  Rate  % 40.02% 200-­‐Day  MA $43.76 RSI  Signal Trend  Down
Price/Book 7.17 EPS  Growth  QoQ 26.32% 50/200  Day  MA -­‐$0.07 S/T  Trend Up
Forward  PEG  Ratio 1.20 Revenue  Growth  QoQ 44.63% Volume  Pressure 1.59 L/T  Trend Up
Return  on  Equity 23.21 Dividend  Yield 0.00% Average  Daily  Volume 1,911,281 Bull  /  Bear Bull  Trend
LT  Debt/Equity 0.00% Cash  Flow  Per  Share 1.66 M-­‐Score  (0  -­‐  100%) 58%
H&C  Fundamental  Score 5.0 H&C  Technical  Score 3.3
Ownership  Data
Inst.  Buy/Sell  Ratio 0.00 Management  Ownership 0.00%    50  Day  Moving  Average S/T  Support L/T  Support
%  Change  of  Insider  Holdings 0.00% Short  Interest  Ratio 2.89    20  Day  Moving  Average S/T  Resistance L/T  Resistance

CTRIP.COM  INTERNATIONAL-­‐ADR
$51

$49

$47

$45

$43

$41

$39

$37

20.0
Bull  Trend Bear  Trend
10.0

0.0

-­‐10.0
2.0
Up  /  Down  Volume  Ratio
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
200

100

0
20-­‐Jan-­‐11 3-­‐Feb-­‐11 17-­‐Feb-­‐11 4-­‐Mar-­‐11 18-­‐Mar-­‐11 1-­‐Apr-­‐11 15-­‐Apr-­‐11 2-­‐May-­‐11 16-­‐May-­‐11
Volume  x100,000
Fundamentals
CTRIP.COM  INTERNATIONAL-­‐ADR
1
Earnings  Per  Share  GAAP
3 Reported Estimate Target  Price 19 Actual  Price Estimate
$0.60 $60

$0.50 $50

$0.40 $40

$0.30 $30

$0.20 $20

$0.10 $10

$0.00 $0

Total  Revenues 1
Reported Estimate
Ownership EPS  &  Revenue  Growth
#N/A  N.A.   Quarter EPS  Growth Rev.  Growth
$250
    FQ2  2009 35% 28%
    FQ3  2009 78% 47%
    FQ4  2009 56% 43%
$200
    FQ1  2010 48% 47%
    FQ2  2010 37% 47%
$150
    FQ3  2010 63% 52%
    FQ4  2010 52% 44%
FQ1  2011 25% 45%
$100 Top  Holders  and  %  Outstanding Forward  Growth  Estimates
T  ROWE  PRICE  ASSOCIA 12.08% Quarter EPS  Growth Rev.  Growth
LONE  PINE  CAPITAL  LL 5.80% FQ2  2011 15% 28%
$50
MORGAN  STANLEY  INVES 5.15% FQ3  2011 5% 26%
FIDELITY  INTERNATION 4.81% FQ4  2011 5% 25%
ARTISAN  PARTNERS  HOL 4.79% FQ1  2012 24% 19%
$0
ARTIO  GLOBAL  MANAGEM 4.60%
MACQUARIE  GROUP  LTD 4.53%
WINSLOW  CAPITAL  MANA 3.07%

Largest  Geographic  Segmentation  of  Revenue Product  Segmentation  of  Revenue

Yearly Yearly
Segment  Name FY  2010 FY  2009 FY  2008 FY  2007 FY  2006 Segment  Name FY  2010 FY  2009 FY  2008 FY  2007 FY  2006
China 436.55 291.25 217.22 164.38 99.94 Hotel  Reservation $193.64 $140.03 $111.94 $92.74 $61.06
Air-­‐Ticketing $182.87 $130.09 $96.65 $69.02 $38.82
Packaged-­‐Tour $57.62 $25.98 $16.01 $9.80 $5.34
Corporate  travel $19.65 #N/A  N/A #N/A  N/A #N/A  N/A #N/A  N/A
Others  (Advertising) $10.88 $14.86 $8.20 $4.91 $1.65
Less:  business  tax  and  related  surcharges -­‐$28.10 -­‐$19.71 -­‐$15.59 -­‐$12.09 -­‐$6.93
U.S.  and  Canada  Theatrical  Exhibition #N/A  N/A #N/A  N/A $2,310.98 $2,284.85 $1,630.53

Disclosure: This  material  is  provided  for  information  only  and  is  not  intended  as  a  recommendation  or  an  offer  or  solicitation  for  the  purchase  or  sale  of  any  security  or  financial  instrument.  This  material  is  not  a  complete  analysis  of  all  material  facts  respecting  any  issuer,  industry  
or  security  or  of  your  investment  objectives,  parameters,  needs  or  financial  situation,  and  therefore  is  not  a  sufficient  basis  alone  on  which  to  base  an  investment  decision.  Horowitz  &  Company  clients  may  hold  positions  (long  or  short)  in  investments  d iscussed.  Please  click  for  
detailed  disclosures  and  additional  information  about  our  stock  ratings  and  scoring.

5/17/2011
 CTRIP.COM  INTERNATIONAL-­‐ADR      (CTRP)
Current  Outlook  -­‐ ST  Bull  Trend  /  LT  Bull  Trend Last  Price    -­‐ 46.36  

50

OR  E

48

Min
Max
46

44
CTRP
MSER
42 SPX  I
CCM
RTY  I
40 CTRP
INDU
Chart  Legend  -­‐ Daily SPTS
S/T Bear  Trend   S/T Bull  Trend   MEX
38
#N/A  N/A Changes  Below 46.07   IBOV
Changes  Above
L/T Bull  Trend   44.17   SX5E
L/T Bear  Trend   #N/A  N/A
Changes  Above Changes  Below UKX  
36 CAC  
20-­‐Day  Moving  Average 47.94  
43.69   DAX  
50-­‐Day  Moving  Average
IBEX  
34 FTSE
12.0 AEX  
Bull  Trend Bear  Trend OMX
10.0
SMI  I
8.0
NKY  
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-­‐2.0
-­‐4.0
-­‐6.0
1/20/11 1/27/11 2/3/11 2/10/11 2/17/11 2/25/11 3/4/11 3/11/11 3/18/11 3/25/11 4/1/11 4/8/11 4/15/11 4/25/11 5/2/11 5/9/11 5/16/11

Disclosure: This  material  is  provided  for  information  only  and  is  not  intended  as  a  recommendation  or  an  offer  or  solicitation  for  the  purchase  or  sale  of  
any  security  or  financial  instrument.  This  material  is  not  a  complete  analysis  of  all  material  facts  respecting  any  issuer,  i ndustry  or  security  or  of  your  
investment  objectives,  parameters,  needs  or  financial  situation,  and  therefore  is  not  a  sufficient  basis  alone  on  which  to  base  an  investment  decision.  
Horowitz  &  Company  clients  may  hold  positions  (long  or  short)  in  investments  discussed.  Please  click  for  detailed  disclosures  and  additional  information  

5/17/2011