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than capable of doing very much unless the United States Turkey was a pillar of NATO. Also, the general direction of
takes the lead. Otherwise, each member country pursues its Turkish foreign policy was to avoid getting entangled in the
own interest. Russia and China, both being authoritarian politics of the Middle East.
systems themselves, are generally opposed to humanitarian
interventions. In Syria’s case, no country seems deeply inter- Syrian territorial claims on the neighboring Turkish
ested in devoting resources to restrain the government’s province of Hatay and Turkey’s building dams/irrigation
authoritarianism or to intervene actively, let alone militarily, schemes on the Euphrates, the main water source for Syria,
to stop bloodshed. constituted the background for hostile relations. In 1999,
after Turkey threatened military action against Syria for
In Syria’s case, no country supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) ethnic
separatist terrorism and hosting its leader, Abdullah Öcalan,
Turkish-Syrian relations became transformed. Syria sent
seems deeply interested in Öcalan away; it stopped offering facilities to the PKK in
Bekaa Valley (Lebanon), then under Syrian control; and it
devoting resources to restrain the clamped down on PKK’s activities in the country itself.
Turkish-Syrian Relations
Turkey has displayed hesitancy in deciding how to respond Turkey was looking forward to a
to Syrian developments. Turkey’s relations with Syria had
improved in recent years. It seemed that Syria wanted
to make a gradual comeback to the international system
long period of peace, stability,
through establishing closer relations with Turkey. Turkey
hoped that the mood of optimism owing to economic and prosperity in its “special
betterment would dampen pressures for regime change.
relationship” with Syria.
During the Cold War Turkey’s relations with Syria were
distant. The Syrians had close relations with the USSR while
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Analysis
The Syrian Crisis and Turkey inhabited regions of Turkey and the Kurdish Regional
The contagion of mass uprisings demanding reforms and Government of Northern Iraq. Of late, Syrian Kurds have
democratization in the Arab Middle East caught all parties displayed challenging attitudes toward the Syrian govern-
with interests in the region, including Turkey, off-guard. ment. Turkey is nervous that as Syria is trying to find a way
Turkish responses to Tunisian and Egyptian developments of accommodating the aspirations of its Kurdish population
were in harmony with the United States and the EU. But for ethnic recognition within the framework of the nation-
making a choice in those cases was relatively easy. Turkey state, the breakdown of the regime might unleash forces
had no major interests in Tunisia, and limited interests that neither the new Syrian regime nor Turkey would find
in Egypt. Furthermore, major policy differences existed easy to contain, while Northern Iraq might not resist the
between Turkey and Egypt regarding how to address the temptation to support Kurdish separatism.
Palestinian problem, especially its Gaza/Hamas dimension.
Also, the Turkish Prime Minister had wide appeal among
Egyptian masses who wanted President Hosni Mubarak to Turkey is nervous that as
go.
Syria is trying to find a way of
In the Libyan and then the Syrian crisis, Turkey experi-
enced difficulty in formulating a quick response. In Libya,
relations with the government of Col. Muammar Qadhafi
accommodating the aspirations of
had been good. Turkey had developed substantial business
interests in building contracts totaling US$25 billion. Also, its Kurdish population for ethnic
Turkey was unsure of Western resolve to intervene. These
considerations initially led Turkey to encourage restraint, recognition within the framework
appealing to Qadhafi to reform. Qadhafi seemed, however,
to be in no mood to accommodate. It soon became evident
that the best policy was to act together with other NATO
of the nation-state, the breakdown
allies, among others, to prevent France from acting alone
to prevail in Libya. Turkey’s position against Qadhafi has of the regime might unleash forces
hardened slowly as it has become apparent that his ability
to stay in power is far from assured in view of the resolute that neither the new Syrian regime
NATO position that his rule should end, and expressions of
anti-Turkish sentiment in Eastern Libya. Turkey has now
asked Qadhafi to leave only to be told, like others, that it
nor Turkey would find easy to
should not intervene in Libyan domestic affairs.
contain.
Syria presents a complex picture, unlike Libya where
Turkey’s major interests were mainly economic. Syria and
Turkey have relatively porous contiguous borders with no It appears that centrifugal tendencies in Syria abound. The
visa requirements at the crossings. Already small groups most easily identifiable fault line is sectarian. The Assad
have crossed into Turkey asking for asylum, claiming (it family and important command posts in the army are held
seems falsely) that their lives were in danger. If distur- by the Nusayris, a heterodox religious minority. Questions
bances intensify, particularly in the North, Turkey would be have been raised, for example, in regard to whether and for
exposed to populations crossing the border, which it would how long the ordinary soldiers comprised mainly of Sunni
find difficult to cope with. recruits will continue to fire on Sunni crowds demanding
reforms. In parts of Syria, tribal identifications are strong; in
There is an additional dimension to Syria’s population in its others, regional identity combined with religious sect seems
north east. This is a Kurdish region bordering the Kurdish to play an important political role. Although the secular
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Analysis