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Report Date: November 29, 2010

Q3 2010 Private Student Loan Performance Report


ANALYSTS
Claire J. Mezzanotte Rosemary Kelley Jayce Fox
Managing Director Senior Vice President Senior Vice President
Structured Finance - ABS/RMBS/Covered Bonds Structured Finance - ABS Structured Finance - ABS
Tel. +1 212 806 3272 Tel. +1 212 806 3250 Tel. +1 212 806 3261
cmezzanotte@dbrs.com rkelley@dbrs.com jfox@dbrs.com

PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
In the third quarter of 2010, performance of the DBRS Private Student Loan Index demonstrated the
ongoing impact of higher unemployment rates. Gross defaults increased in the third quarter of 2010,
reversing the previous 3 quarter downward trend. The quarterly gross default rate as measured as a
percentage of loans in repayment rose to 1.35% from 1.16% in the second quarter while the percentage of
gross defaults as a percentage of original pool balances rose to 0.82% from 0.70% over the same periods.
Still, despite the increase gross default rates are 31% lower than their peak which was experienced in the
third quarter of 2009.

Delinquency performance, as measured by loans 120+ days delinquent decreased for the fourth
consecutive quarter and now stand at 3.01% of loans in repayment (versus 3.22% last quarter).
Conversely, the percentage of loans 60+ days delinquent reversed their downward trend and increased to
5.83%, from 5.51% in the previous quarter and may signal an end to the decreases experienced recently in
120+ delinquencies next quarter. Nevertheless, both rates are below their peak 2009 levels, showing a
9.2% and 17.1% decrease, respectively, for 60+ days and 120+ days.

The DBRS Forbearance Index reached a new low as the percentage of loans in repayment that are also in
forbearance reached 4.60%, down from 4.82% in the second quarter of 2010. This is the sixth consecutive
quarter that the index has declined. During that period the percentage of loans in forbearance has declined
from 8.24% in the first quarter of 2009 to its current level, a decrease of 44%. The decline in
forbearances is evidence of the more conservative stance that lenders are taking in granting forbearances
on private student loans.

The levels of defaults and delinquencies still remain well above the levels experienced before 2007. The
quarterly default rate for loans in repayment has increased from 0.55% in the fourth quarter of 2006, to
1.35% in the most recent quarter. Similarly, the quarterly default rate as a percentage of original pool
balance has increased from 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 0.82% in the most recent quarter.
Delinquency levels indicate a similar pattern. The percentage of loans in repayment that were 60+ days
delinquent during the fourth quarter of 2006 was 2.72%, versus 5.83% in the most recent quarter, while
the percentage of loans 120+ days delinquent over the same periods increased from 1.00% in the fourth
quarter 2006 to 3.01%. Although trends are showing signs of stabilization or improvement, performance
remains significantly worse than 3 years ago.

With respect to vintages, the 2007 vintage continues to under-perform other vintages. Its cumulative
default curve exhibits a slope that is much steeper than the other vintages at similar points of aging, and
by quarter 12 of seasoning, has experienced 4 times the levels of defaults experienced by the 2003 and
2005 vintages. Similarly, it has experienced defaults of between 2.5 and 3 times the 2006 and 2004
vintages, respectively, and has experienced approximately double those seen in the 2002 vintage at
quarter 12.

1 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Report Date: November 29, 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Performance Summary 1
Quarterly Performance Graphs 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Forbearance Index Q3 2010 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Delinquency Index Q3 2010 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Gross Default Index Q3 2010 5
DBRS Private Student Loan Cumulative Defaults by Trust Vintage Q3 2010 5
Vintage Performance 6
Appendix A: Transactions Included in the DBRS Private Student Loan Performance Report 7

Percent of Loans in Repayment (by Vintage)


100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10

Source: DBRS 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Q A
4 p
M r-0

0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2

3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
ay 7
Q 00

Billions
1 2 Ju -07
2 n-

Source: DBRS
Q 00
2 3 Ju 0 7
2 A l-0
Q 00
3 3
ug 7
2 S -0
ep 7
Q 00
4 3 O -0
2 c 7
Q 00
1 3 N t -0
2 ov 7
Q 00 D -0
2 4 ec 7
2

Source: U.S. Department of Labor


Q 00 Ja - 0
3 4 n 7

Total Index Pool Balance


U.S. Unemployment Rate

2 Fe -0
Q 00
4 b 8
4 M -0
2 ar 8
Report Date: November 29, 2010

Q 00 A -0
1 4 p 8
2 M r-0
Q 00
2 5
ay 8
2

3 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Ju -08
Q 00
3 5 n-
2 Ju 0 8
Q 00
4 5 A l-0
2 ug 8
Q 00 S -0
1 5 ep 8
2 O -0
Q 00 c 8
2 6
2 N t -0
ov 8
Q 00
3 6 D -0
2 ec 8
Q 00
4 6 Ja -08
2 n
Q 00 Fe -0
1 6 b 9
2 M -0
Q 00
2 7
ar 9
2 A -0
p 9
Q 00
3 7 M r-0
ay 9

Reporting Quarter
20
Q 0
4 7 Ju -09
2 n-
Q 00 J u 09
1 7
2 A l-0
ug 9
Q 00
2 8 S -0
2 ep 9
Q 00
3 8 O -0
2 c 9
Q 00 N t -0
4 8 ov 9
2 D -0
Q 00 ec 9
1 8
2 Ja -0
Q 00
2 n 9
9 Fe -1
2 b 0
Q 00 M -1
3 9
2 ar 0
Q 00 A -1
4 9 p 0
2 M r-1
Q 00 ay 0
1 9
2 Ju -10
Q 01 n-
2 0 Ju 1 0
2
Q 01 A l-1
3 0 ug 0
20 S -1
10 ep 0
-1
0
Report Date: November 29, 2010

QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE GRAPHS

DBRS Private Student Loan Forbearance Index

14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%

Q 009
Q 005
Q 005
Q 003

Q 004
Q 004
Q 004
Q 005

Q 007
Q 07
Q 007
Q 007
Q 008
Q 008
Q 008
Q 008
Q 009

Q 09
Q 009

Q 010
10
Q 05

Q 006
Q 006
Q 006
Q 006

Q 10
Q 002

Q 03
Q 003
Q 004
Q 03

20

20

20

20
20

20
20

2
2
2
2
2

2
2
2
2
2
2
2

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

2
2

2
2

2
2
3
4
1

1
2
3
4
1

3
2
3

1
2
3
4

4
1
2
3
4
1

3
4

2
3
4
1
1
Q

Reporting Quarter

Source: DBRS Loans in Forbearance as % of Loans in Repayment

DBRS Private Student Loan Delinquency Index


7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2

5
4

Q 09

Q 09
6
06

Q 06

Q 07

Q 10

Q 10
Q 07

Q 07

Q 07

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 08

Q 09

Q 09

10
0

0
0

0
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
4

1
4

2
2

3
Q

Q
Q

Reporting Quarter

Loans 60+ Days DQ as % of Loans in Repayment Loans 120+ Days DQ as % of Loans in Repayment
Source: DBRS

4 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Report Date: November 29, 2010

DBRS Private Student Loan Quarterly Gross Default Index


2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Q 002

Q 005

Q 06

Q 006

Q 006

Q 006

Q 007

Q 007

Q 07

Q 008

Q 008
Q 03

Q 003

Q 03

Q 003

Q 004

Q 004

Q 004

Q 04

Q 005

Q 05

Q 005

Q 007

Q 08

Q 008

Q 009

Q 009

Q 09

Q 009

Q 010

Q 010
10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
2

2
2
4
1

2
3

3
Q

Reporting Quarter

Gross Defaults as % of Original Pool Gross Defaults as % of Loans in Repayment


Source: DBRS

DBRS Private Student Loan Cumulative Defaults by Trust Vintage


16.0%
15.0%
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Q21 Q23 Q25 Q27 Q29 Q31
Seasoning (by Quarter)

2002 Vintage 2003 Vintage 2004 Vintage 2005 Vintage 2006 Vintage 2007 Vintage
Source: DBRS

5 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Report Date: November 29, 2010

VINTAGE PERFORMANCE

Vintage Performance Second Quarter 2010

Quarterly Quarterly
Default Default
Original ≥ 60 ≥ 120 Rate (% of Rate (% of Cumulative
Collateral Total Total in Forbear- days days Original Loans in Default
Vintage Amt. ($) Current O/S Repayment ance % DQ % DQ % Pool) Repay) %*

2002 1,597,962,314 782,941,315 747,998,096 2.49% 3.18% 1.48% 0.34% 0.71% 11.61%

2003 4,526,448,415 2,519,183,816 2,291,463,190 2.32% 4.96% 2.68% 0.51% 0.99% 10.71%

2004 5,347,557,337 3,543,866,279 3,263,974,401 4.05% 4.85% 2.64% 0.70% 1.12% 13.65%

2005 6,779,471,422 5,172,243,161 4,429,711,203 4.80% 5.33% 2.98% 0.78% 1.18% 11.52%

2006 12,900,676,798 10,360,700,536 8,283,606,460 4.86% 5.50% 3.68% 0.72% 1.14% 8.53%

2007 6,345,165,215 5,986,034,944 4,032,416,431 7.20% 7.22% 4.15% 0.85% 1.44% 7.63%

Vintage Performance Third Quarter 2010

Quarterly Quarterly
Default Default
Original ≥ 60 ≥ 120 Rate (% of Rate (% of Cumulative
Collateral Total Total in Forbear- days days Original Loans in Default
Vintage Amt. ($) Current O/S Repayment ance % DQ % DQ % Pool) Repay) %*

2002 1,597,962,314 756,063,636 726,216,760 2.44% 3.05% 1.27% 0.39% 0.84% 12.00%

2003 4,526,448,415 2,449,472,309 2,239,785,709 2.41% 5.01% 2.49% 0.54% 1.08% 11.25%

2004 5,347,557,337 3,496,820,744 3,194,227,555 3.73% 4.78% 2.37% 0.67% 1.10% 14.32%

2005 6,779,471,422 5,064,861,159 4,408,078,272 4.77% 5.54% 2.75% 0.85% 1.29% 12.37%

2006 12,900,676,798 10,153,077,324 8,180,226,651 4.60% 5.89% 3.44% 0.90% 1.40% 9.42%

2007 6,345,165,215 5,915,392,590 4,027,325,323 6.75% 8.03% 3.87% 1.10% 1.80% 8.74%

*Numbers may not match due to rounding.

6 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Report Date: November 29, 2010

APPENDIX A: TRANSACTIONS INCLUDED IN DBRS


PRIVATE STUDENT LOAN PERFORMANCE REPORT
% of Index based on % of Index based on
Trust Original Pool Balance Outstanding Pool Balance

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2002-A 0.68% 0.58%

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2003-A 0.99% 0.83%

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2004-A 1.65% 1.63%

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2005-A 0.92% 0.86%

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2005-B 0.91% 0.74%

Access Group Private Student Loan Trust 2007-A 2.04% 2.27%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2001-A* 1.10% 0.53%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2002-A 1.71% 0.97%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2003-A 1.71% 1.00%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2004-A 2.01% 1.45%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2005-A 1.68% 1.50%

KeyCorp Student Loan Trust 2006-A 2.09% 2.01%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-1 1.64% 1.40%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-2 2.13% 2.19%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-1 1.89% 1.85%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-2 1.22% 1.27%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-3 3.34% 3.79%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-1 1.96% 2.27%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-2 1.33% 1.60%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-3 3.66% 4.61%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-4 1.91% 2.45%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-1 2.05% 2.62%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-2 2.02% 2.63%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-3 2.68% 3.61%

National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-4 2.67% 3.60%

NorthStar Education Finace Series 2006-A 1.60% 1.53%

SLC Private Student Loan Trust 2006-A 8.06% 6.75%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2002-A 1.82% 1.15%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2003-A 2.65% 1.77%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2003-B 3.29% 2.53%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2003-C 3.30% 2.62%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2004-A 3.30% 2.64%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2004-B 3.38% 3.18%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2005-A 3.97% 3.89%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2005-B 3.96% 4.20%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2006-A 5.28% 6.02%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2006-B 5.27% 5.84%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2006-C 2.87% 3.21%

SLM Private Student Loan Trust 2007-A 5.28% 6.41%

Total 100.00% 100.00%

* Note: Key 2001-A is not included in any of the vintage analyses.

7 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS


Report Date: November 29, 2010

Note: All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

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8 Performance Report Structured Finance: Student Loan ABS

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