Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
In the third quarter of 2010, performance of the DBRS Private Student Loan Index demonstrated the
ongoing impact of higher unemployment rates. Gross defaults increased in the third quarter of 2010,
reversing the previous 3 quarter downward trend. The quarterly gross default rate as measured as a
percentage of loans in repayment rose to 1.35% from 1.16% in the second quarter while the percentage of
gross defaults as a percentage of original pool balances rose to 0.82% from 0.70% over the same periods.
Still, despite the increase gross default rates are 31% lower than their peak which was experienced in the
third quarter of 2009.
Delinquency performance, as measured by loans 120+ days delinquent decreased for the fourth
consecutive quarter and now stand at 3.01% of loans in repayment (versus 3.22% last quarter).
Conversely, the percentage of loans 60+ days delinquent reversed their downward trend and increased to
5.83%, from 5.51% in the previous quarter and may signal an end to the decreases experienced recently in
120+ delinquencies next quarter. Nevertheless, both rates are below their peak 2009 levels, showing a
9.2% and 17.1% decrease, respectively, for 60+ days and 120+ days.
The DBRS Forbearance Index reached a new low as the percentage of loans in repayment that are also in
forbearance reached 4.60%, down from 4.82% in the second quarter of 2010. This is the sixth consecutive
quarter that the index has declined. During that period the percentage of loans in forbearance has declined
from 8.24% in the first quarter of 2009 to its current level, a decrease of 44%. The decline in
forbearances is evidence of the more conservative stance that lenders are taking in granting forbearances
on private student loans.
The levels of defaults and delinquencies still remain well above the levels experienced before 2007. The
quarterly default rate for loans in repayment has increased from 0.55% in the fourth quarter of 2006, to
1.35% in the most recent quarter. Similarly, the quarterly default rate as a percentage of original pool
balance has increased from 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 0.82% in the most recent quarter.
Delinquency levels indicate a similar pattern. The percentage of loans in repayment that were 60+ days
delinquent during the fourth quarter of 2006 was 2.72%, versus 5.83% in the most recent quarter, while
the percentage of loans 120+ days delinquent over the same periods increased from 1.00% in the fourth
quarter 2006 to 3.01%. Although trends are showing signs of stabilization or improvement, performance
remains significantly worse than 3 years ago.
With respect to vintages, the 2007 vintage continues to under-perform other vintages. Its cumulative
default curve exhibits a slope that is much steeper than the other vintages at similar points of aging, and
by quarter 12 of seasoning, has experienced 4 times the levels of defaults experienced by the 2003 and
2005 vintages. Similarly, it has experienced defaults of between 2.5 and 3 times the 2006 and 2004
vintages, respectively, and has experienced approximately double those seen in the 2002 vintage at
quarter 12.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Performance Summary 1
Quarterly Performance Graphs 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Forbearance Index Q3 2010 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Delinquency Index Q3 2010 4
DBRS Private Student Loan Gross Default Index Q3 2010 5
DBRS Private Student Loan Cumulative Defaults by Trust Vintage Q3 2010 5
Vintage Performance 6
Appendix A: Transactions Included in the DBRS Private Student Loan Performance Report 7
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
ay 7
Q 00
Billions
1 2 Ju -07
2 n-
Source: DBRS
Q 00
2 3 Ju 0 7
2 A l-0
Q 00
3 3
ug 7
2 S -0
ep 7
Q 00
4 3 O -0
2 c 7
Q 00
1 3 N t -0
2 ov 7
Q 00 D -0
2 4 ec 7
2
2 Fe -0
Q 00
4 b 8
4 M -0
2 ar 8
Report Date: November 29, 2010
Q 00 A -0
1 4 p 8
2 M r-0
Q 00
2 5
ay 8
2
Reporting Quarter
20
Q 0
4 7 Ju -09
2 n-
Q 00 J u 09
1 7
2 A l-0
ug 9
Q 00
2 8 S -0
2 ep 9
Q 00
3 8 O -0
2 c 9
Q 00 N t -0
4 8 ov 9
2 D -0
Q 00 ec 9
1 8
2 Ja -0
Q 00
2 n 9
9 Fe -1
2 b 0
Q 00 M -1
3 9
2 ar 0
Q 00 A -1
4 9 p 0
2 M r-1
Q 00 ay 0
1 9
2 Ju -10
Q 01 n-
2 0 Ju 1 0
2
Q 01 A l-1
3 0 ug 0
20 S -1
10 ep 0
-1
0
Report Date: November 29, 2010
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
Q 009
Q 005
Q 005
Q 003
Q 004
Q 004
Q 004
Q 005
Q 007
Q 07
Q 007
Q 007
Q 008
Q 008
Q 008
Q 008
Q 009
Q 09
Q 009
Q 010
10
Q 05
Q 006
Q 006
Q 006
Q 006
Q 10
Q 002
Q 03
Q 003
Q 004
Q 03
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
4
1
1
2
3
4
1
3
2
3
1
2
3
4
4
1
2
3
4
1
3
4
2
3
4
1
1
Q
Reporting Quarter
5
4
Q 09
Q 09
6
06
Q 06
Q 07
Q 10
Q 10
Q 07
Q 07
Q 07
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 09
Q 09
10
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
4
1
4
2
2
3
Q
Q
Q
Reporting Quarter
Loans 60+ Days DQ as % of Loans in Repayment Loans 120+ Days DQ as % of Loans in Repayment
Source: DBRS
Q 005
Q 06
Q 006
Q 006
Q 006
Q 007
Q 007
Q 07
Q 008
Q 008
Q 03
Q 003
Q 03
Q 003
Q 004
Q 004
Q 004
Q 04
Q 005
Q 05
Q 005
Q 007
Q 08
Q 008
Q 009
Q 009
Q 09
Q 009
Q 010
Q 010
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2
2
2
4
1
2
3
3
Q
Reporting Quarter
2002 Vintage 2003 Vintage 2004 Vintage 2005 Vintage 2006 Vintage 2007 Vintage
Source: DBRS
VINTAGE PERFORMANCE
Quarterly Quarterly
Default Default
Original ≥ 60 ≥ 120 Rate (% of Rate (% of Cumulative
Collateral Total Total in Forbear- days days Original Loans in Default
Vintage Amt. ($) Current O/S Repayment ance % DQ % DQ % Pool) Repay) %*
2002 1,597,962,314 782,941,315 747,998,096 2.49% 3.18% 1.48% 0.34% 0.71% 11.61%
2003 4,526,448,415 2,519,183,816 2,291,463,190 2.32% 4.96% 2.68% 0.51% 0.99% 10.71%
2004 5,347,557,337 3,543,866,279 3,263,974,401 4.05% 4.85% 2.64% 0.70% 1.12% 13.65%
2005 6,779,471,422 5,172,243,161 4,429,711,203 4.80% 5.33% 2.98% 0.78% 1.18% 11.52%
2006 12,900,676,798 10,360,700,536 8,283,606,460 4.86% 5.50% 3.68% 0.72% 1.14% 8.53%
2007 6,345,165,215 5,986,034,944 4,032,416,431 7.20% 7.22% 4.15% 0.85% 1.44% 7.63%
Quarterly Quarterly
Default Default
Original ≥ 60 ≥ 120 Rate (% of Rate (% of Cumulative
Collateral Total Total in Forbear- days days Original Loans in Default
Vintage Amt. ($) Current O/S Repayment ance % DQ % DQ % Pool) Repay) %*
2002 1,597,962,314 756,063,636 726,216,760 2.44% 3.05% 1.27% 0.39% 0.84% 12.00%
2003 4,526,448,415 2,449,472,309 2,239,785,709 2.41% 5.01% 2.49% 0.54% 1.08% 11.25%
2004 5,347,557,337 3,496,820,744 3,194,227,555 3.73% 4.78% 2.37% 0.67% 1.10% 14.32%
2005 6,779,471,422 5,064,861,159 4,408,078,272 4.77% 5.54% 2.75% 0.85% 1.29% 12.37%
2006 12,900,676,798 10,153,077,324 8,180,226,651 4.60% 5.89% 3.44% 0.90% 1.40% 9.42%
2007 6,345,165,215 5,915,392,590 4,027,325,323 6.75% 8.03% 3.87% 1.10% 1.80% 8.74%
Copyright © 2010, DBRS Limited, DBRS, Inc. and DBRS Ratings Limited (collectively, DBRS). All rights reserved. The information
upon which DBRS ratings and reports are based is obtained by DBRS from sources DBRS believes to be accurate and reliable. DBRS
does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that
information in every instance. The extent of any factual investigation or independent verification depends on facts and circumstances.
DBRS ratings, reports and any other information provided by DBRS are provided “as is” and without representation or warranty of any
kind. DBRS hereby disclaims any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness,
merchantability, fitness for any particular purpose or non-infringement of any of such information. In no event shall DBRS or its
directors, officers, employees, independent contractors, agents and representatives (collectively, DBRS Representatives) be liable (1) for
any inaccuracy, delay, loss of data, interruption in service, error or omission or for any damages resulting therefrom, or (2) for any direct,
indirect, incidental, special, compensatory or consequential damages arising from any use of ratings and rating reports or arising from
any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of DBRS or any DBRS
Representative, in connection with or related to obtaining, collecting, compiling, analyzing, interpreting, communicating, publishing or
delivering any such information. Ratings and other opinions issued by DBRS are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion
and not statements of fact as to credit worthiness or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. A report providing a DBRS
rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its
agents in connection with the sale of the securities. DBRS receives compensation for its rating activities from issuers, insurers,
guarantors and/or underwriters of debt securities for assigning ratings and from subscribers to its website. DBRS is not responsible for
the content or operation of third party websites accessed through hypertext or other computer links and DBRS shall have no liability to
any person or entity for the use of such third party websites. This publication may not be reproduced, retransmitted or distributed in any
form without the prior written consent of DBRS. ALL DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN
LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AT http://www.dbrs.com/about/disclaimer.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES AND
METHODOLOGIES, ARE AVAILABLE ON http://www.dbrs.com.