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Draft: 06.11.2010

NATURAL DISASTER AND COPING STRATEGIES IN THE

SUNDARBAN DELTA OF INDIA

by

Santadas Ghosh 1
Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan
West Bengal (India)

Background Paper for Conference on the " The Environments of the Poor”, 24-26 Nov 2010,
New Delhi

1
Associate Professor in Economics; e-mail <santadas_ghosh@yahoo.co.in>. This paper is partial
outcome of a research project with financial support from the South Asian Network for Development and
Environmental Economics (SANDEE)

1
SUMMARY
Sundarban Biosphere Reserve is part of the largest mangrove delta in the world spread across
India and Bangladesh, opening into the Bay of Bengal in its south. Besides the mangrove
dominated Reserve Forest, the Indian side also includes 54 inhabited islands which are densely
populated. Settlements had come up on these nascent islands in more recent times, within last
century. The estimated population on such islands is around 1.5 million. These remote islanders
are predominantly agricultural, encircled by river embankments that protect their cultivable land
from the saline water in the delta. Due to their remoteness and lack of infrastructural
development, the livelihood choices are limited and are not similar to other people who are
generally categorized as ‘coastal’.

Due to historical reasons, the land distribution pattern on these islands are more equitable than
most of rural India. The region is characterized by rain fed agricultural with a single crop, done
mostly for self-consumption. Households augment their earning by engaging in a multiple
earning activities such as fishing, forest collections, and in more recent times working as
migrant labourer. The poverty scenario in the region is not acute. Going by the monthly per-
capita expenditure pattern, Sundarban households in general are better off compared to their
rural counterparts in mainland India.

In terms of the threat from sea level rise due to global climate change, it is recognized as one of
the most vulnerable parts in the world. But the immediate threat specifically comes from a
predicted increase in the frequency of cyclone formations in the Bay of Bengal. The effect of a
natural disaster has recently been demonstrated by cyclone Aila in 2009, which rendered
agriculture impossible over vast stretches of land for at least a full year due to salt deposits on
agricultural fields. As a spontaneous coping strategy, a majority of the agricultural households
has resorted to earn as migrant labourer and non-farm daily labourer. Contrary to conventional
wisdom, the study finds that forest and river dependence of the households has actually
decreased after the event.

2
1. SUNDARBAN IN INDIA

1.1 Location and geography

In India, the Sundarban is located at the southern corner of the eastern state of West Bengal
and on the Gangetic delta. Spread over India and Bangladesh, it is the largest single mangrove
forest tract in the world and a declared World Heritage Site for its biodiversity significance. The
physiography is dominated by deltaic formations that include innumerable drainage lines. The
deltaic islands rise marginally above the sea level with average elevation between 4 to 7.5
meters across them. Tidal saline water, pushed into from the Bay of Bengal, alternately drowns
the exposes large parts of the islets twice a day throughout the year.

In the Indian side, out of a total 102 islands, 48 constitute the Reserve Forest that is home to the
famous Royal Bengal Tiger. The remaining 54 islands are inhabited and contain a large
population on them. The Reserve forest and the settlements are on two different sets of islands
which are mutually exclusive. There is no human habitation inside the Reserve Forest. In the
Indian part, the reserve forest lies in the eastern corner while the populated islands are located
along its western boundary and further towards the mainland.

Officially, Sundarban Biosphere Reserve refers to a region that extends beyond these islands
and covers some of the area that is part of the mainland now. It is spread over two southern
districts of West Bengal. The region is densely populated. As per 2001 Census, the total
population of Sundarban region was about 3.7.million. The decennial growth rate during 1991-
2001 was 17.4% against the state average of 17.77%. The population density as per 2001
census was 845 per sq. km which is more than the average for rural West Bengal, reported as
676 per sq. km.2

This paper is aimed to investigate on the socio-economic conditions of the Sundarban

population which is located on the islands. In absence of any clear estimate from secondary
sources, the study estimated the population on such islands at around 1.5 million. Due to their
remoteness and lack of infrastructural development, their livelihood choices and economic
conditions are not similar to other people who are generally categorized as ‘coastal’. The people
on these low lying islands are located within an important and delicate ecological site and
biodiversity hotspot. Their livelihood practices and nature of exploitation of natural resources
have important implication for the sustainability and management of this important ecological
region. Also, these islands are most vulnerable in the face of predicted Sea Level Rise (SLR)
due to Climate Change (CC).

2
Sources: Department of Sundarban Affairs: http://www.sadepartmentwb.org/
Directorate of census operation, West Bengal: http://web.cmc.net.in/wbcensus

3
 Figure -1: Location of the Study Area
[The yellow region shows the inhabited parts while the green area represents the reserve forest. The
region marked by blue borders represents the two administrative blocks from which households were
selected for primary survey]
1.2 Brief history of Settlements
Though historical evidences suggest some population presence in the region, Sundarban was
depopulated for all practical purposes by 17th century, probably owing to a series of natural
calamities. The present population in Indian Sundarban islands has a fairly recent history which
spans over a little more than hundred years. Introducing human settlement in the area was done
in a planned way under the British rule where the motivation solely was to increase the revenue
collection. The forest land (islands) had been cleared and divided into plots to be leased out to
prospective landlords. The property rights regime had always been a complex one in these islands.
While the land had always been privately owned, the embankments were common property to the
villagers and the adjacent rivers had traditionally been open access resources (Hunter 1876; Pargiter
1934).
Agriculture was made possible on such islands by erecting earthen embankments all around
them. In Indian side, such embankments run up to 3,500 km in length. They had been the
lifelines of human existence on these islands. Such embankments stand guard against salt
water which is detrimental for fresh water agriculture (mostly paddy). The islands are dotted with
tanks of all sizes, which stores rainwater for the villagers’ year long use. Groundwater is also
saline for the upper layers of the water table and lifting groundwater for irrigation purposes is not
economically viable. Agriculture on these islands depends on monsoon rains. A single crop of
paddy is generally raised on these islands.

4
2. DATA AND SAMPLING
A substantial part of this island population lives in conditions which are different from their
mainland counterparts. Since they are not exclusively demarcated by an administrative unit,
information in the form of secondary data on the island inhabitants is not exclusively available.

One of the objectives of this study was to arrive at empirical estimates of basic socio-economic
indicators for these island people. The study estimates in this paper are based on a detailed
survey of 618 households, spread over 31 villages scattered over 21 islands in Indian
Sundarban. The 31 villages were selected ensuring sufficient variation in their remoteness and
natural resource proximity. They are spread over two administrative blocks in Sundarban –
Gosaba and Patharpratima - which are located along its northern and southern boundary
(Figure-1). For each of the selected villages, a first-hand list of all households has been
prepared with their current landholding status. Then 20 households from each of these villages
have been selected as random samples maintaining a fixed proportion from each landholding
strata3. The actual field survey has been carried out between March to June, 2010.

3. STUDY FINDINGS
3.1. Infrastructure and livelihood
The populated islands in Sundarban are poor in infrastructural provisions, much of which can be
attributed to their inaccessibility in the deltaic waters. Among the 31 villages covered under this
study, only two, which are close to the mainland, have conventional electricity which came up
within last five years. Though 90% of the survey villages have a primary school, only one of
them has a secondary school and four of them have a primary health centre. The only source of
drinking water on these islands is deep tube well. The average number of such tube wells is 7
per village which serves on an average 348 households containing 1564 people.

Further information regarding the remoteness and infrastructural provisions of these islands
may be obtained from some other indicators listed in Table-1, which are based on the
responses of the survey households.

Table-1: Indicators for remoteness

Description Average Min Max

Average time taken by a student to reach the nearest secondary school (minute) 33 10 90

Average time taken by a student to reach the nearest college (minute) 130 20 270
Average time taken by a patient to reach the nearest Primary Health Centre
47 15 150
(minute)
Average time taken by a commuter to reach the nearest mainland bus stop (minute) 110 30 270
Due to lack of connectivity and electricity, there is no power-driven industry or even small scale
manufacturing units on these islands. The list of major livelihood is very limited and there is no
industrial worker. Cultivators and agricultural labourers constitute the main workforce. A small
proportion of households has reported salaried employment (Government and N.G.O) as a
source of earning. Daily labour, petty trade and artisanship constitute the other major livelihood
options.

3
Subsequently, information on two of the 620 households has been dropped in the study for incompleteness.

5
 70
60
% of Households

50
40
30
20
10
0
Other daily

Prawn-fry
Agricultural
Own cultivation

Other
collection

dependence

Labourer (> 1
employment

Labourer (< 1
Forest / river
Commercial

Big business /
Small business
labourer
labourer

Salaried

Migrant

Migrant
fishery

trade
Yr.)

Yr.)
Occupation types

Gosaba Block Patharpratima Block

Figure-2: Livelihood practices in Sundarban and households’ participation

The above mentioned livelihood practices do not directly put anthropogenic pressure on the
surrounding ecosystem and the World Heritage Site. However, close to a fifth of the households
also exploit the open access natural resource – that is the river waters - for fishing. While most
of them exploit the rivers waters without interfering with the reserve forest area, a part of them
sneak into the forest creeks for a larger catch – either legally or illegally. Such forest intrusions
are mainly undertaken for fishing. But sometimes they also fetch firewood (illegal) and during a
certain time of the year collect honey.

On the village side, apart from fishing, the river waters are also invaded by womenfolk and
children for collection of prawn-seedlings. Sundarban waters are nutrient-rich natural hatcheries
for prawn seedlings. Collecting these seedlings by filtering the waters with a fine net is a
widespread practice even beyond Sundarban. These prawn-seedlings are in turn bought by the
agents of the large inland fishery-owners. The process yields hard cash for the villagers and this
practice of prawn-fry collection is a highly visible phenomenon along the villages’ riverbanks.

But, this practice puts huge pressure on the Sundarban ecosystem as well as to the health of
the river embankments. Firstly, in the process of collecting a few prawn-seedlings, a large
number of seedlings of other species are wasted. It puts a spanner in the natural regeneration
of fish stock in Sundarban waters. Secondly, in this process, villagers walk along the river
embankments in knee-deep water which exert destabilizing pressure on embankments’ bases and
destroy the naturally generated mangrove saplings. The ill effects of this practice have been
recognized for many years and supplementary employment generation/conservation schemes have
been floated by the government as well as many NGOs. Such efforts have met with varying degrees
of success across villages.

Walking in river waters and going into the forest are highly dangerous practices in Sundarban. The
rivers are stocked with crocodiles and the forest hosts the Royal Bengal tigers – infamous for their
man-eating habits. Every year, there are dozens of human casualties in these two practices, which is

6
so inevitable and regular that it lost its news value. Yet, the local poor falls back on rivers and forest,
understandably due to a lack of alternative livelihood options.

An alternative livelihood practice, however, had started taking root from a decade and half back.
Sundarban’s youth had started to work outside as migrant labourer. It had a demonstration effect and
the number of migrant labourers from these islands has been increasing at an exponential rate in
recent years. Such migration could be of varied duration. As the region raises a single crop,
agricultural labourers find work in neighbouring districts where two or three crops are raised. Besides,
people from Sundarban regularly go out to work as artisans, masons and as labourers in construction
projects in many parts of the country. Duration of such migration ranges from a couple of weeks to
several years. At distant places, the migrant workers from Sundarban generally move in groups
headed by a leader or an agent and do not return to their home within a year. The major concentration
of such workers can be found in the stone quarries in south India (around Bangalore), in the
Andamans (as masons and construction workers) and in Delhi (mostly women as domestic help).

This study found that a fifth of the survey households have sent at least one of their working adults
outside, either for short or for long duration (Table-4). Even this is an underestimation as this estimate
failed to account for those who undertook such errand for a very short duration (less than one month).
3.2 Poverty scenario
In spite of the hardships and limited livelihood opportunities, the islanders of Sundarban do not
compare badly with their rural counterparts in mainland in terms of the traditional poverty
indicators. In the absence of secondary sources, this study estimated the incidence of poverty
on these islands based on a well-dispersed representative sample of households. The
estimates are obtained in terms of the national as well international ($ 1.25 and $ 2 PPP)
poverty lines and are summarized in Table-2.

A direct comparison may tell that the incidence of poverty in Sundarban islands is less than rest
of rural India. However, it can be misleading. Since the latest estimates for rural India is half a
decade old, the figures for rural India in 2010 stands to be lesser. The magnitude of reduction in
poverty over these years is difficult to estimate in absence of sufficient secondary data.
However, it might be said that in light of the estimates described in Table-2, poverty in
Sundarban is not very acute when compared to the rest of rural India or rural West Bengal.

7
 Table-2: Incidence of poverty in Sundarban
$ 1.25 $2
Criteria National
(PPP adjusted) (PPP adjusted)
Year: 2004-2005
Poverty Line:
Expenditure per person
356.3 585 936
per month (Rs.)

Rural India: population

Source: below poverty line 28.3 % 41.6 % 75.6 %
Secondary
data Year: 2004-2005
Poverty Line:
Expenditure per person
382.2 NA NA
per month (Rs.)

Rural West Bengal:

population below poverty
28.6 % NA NA
line

Year 2010
(Adjusting for price index for agricultural labourers)
(estimated)Poverty Line:
Expenditure per person
576.7 882.7 1412.3
per month (Rs.)
Source:
Primary survey Sundarban islands:
population below poverty
21.4 % 40.3 % 66 %
line

Sources: 1. Poverty Data, A supplement to World Development Indicators, World Bank (2008)
2. Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India (2008)
An indirect comparison might be more conclusive in analyzing the poverty scenario in
Sundarban islands vis-à-vis rural West Bengal and rural India. This can be carried out with the
help of more recent available estimates on the pattern of household consumption expenditure
(NSS 64th Round, 2007-2008)4 in India. In these estimates the rural households are distributed
according to the size class of landholdings and the average Monthly Per-Capita Expenditures
(MPCE) are reported against each landholding class. The estimates are available for both rural
India and rural West Bengal. From the primary survey undertaken in this study, Sundarban
households could be distributed in similar landholding classes and their average MPCE could
be calculated. Table-3 describes it and contrasts with the rest of rural India and West Bengal.
The MPCE values are adjusted for 2010 using price indices for agricultural labourers.

Table-3: Distribution of rural households by size class of landholding

Size class of landholding (Hectare)
4
Household Consumer Expenditure in India, 2007-08 by National Sample Survey Organization (March, 2010)

8
 0.0 0.02- 0.21- 0.41- 1.01- 2.01- 3.01- 4.01- above
-0.01 0.20 0.40 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 6.00 6 TOTAL
% of HH
35 17 12 18 11 4 1 1 1 100
(Rural India)
% of HH
(Rural west 49 26 11 11 3 1 0 0 0 100
Bengal)
% of hh
22 36 22 17 4 0 0 0 0 100
(Sundarban islands)
Average MPCE
(Rural India,
923 924 926 941 1016 1197 1190 1287 1468
inflation adjusted for
2009-10)
Average MPCE
(Sundarban islands, 917 1210 1722 1647 1606 1800 NA NA NA
2009-2010)
Now, it seems to be clearer that, except for the lowest class (practically landless), Sundarban
households are better off in comparison to their rural counterparts in West Bengal as well as in
India in terms of their MPCE. It should be mentioned here that the MPCE calculated in this
study has taken into account the imputed value of self-produced consumption items, mainly rice.

Much of this ‘less incidence of poverty’ in Sundarban can be explained by the landholding
pattern on the islands. The proportion of landless households is less in this region compared to
rural India and West Bengal. It has historical reasons. The initial inhabitants, who came on
these islands around 100 years back, were all having some amount of land for their own
cultivation, as part of their invitation package offered by the lease-holders. In fact, that was the
incentive for them to settle in this hostile environment. So, the process of being landless - by
subdivision and fragmentation of landholding through generations - has been operative for a
much less period of time compared to the mainland. Also, since almost all the initial settlers
came under similar packages, there was not much dispersion in their initial endowment. With
passage of time, households’ landholding became fragmented and some were forced to sell off
their land giving rise to the landless class. However, in absence of varied alternative earning
opportunities, many of these small holders did continue with their small holdings. This gave rise
to a large proportion of marginal farmers in Sundarban – much larger than the proportion seen
in rest of rural India.

Before concluding on Sundarban’s livelihood practices, it is important to note that most of the
households have a multiple source of earning. Since agriculture is not usually a year-long
activity and the average landholding is small, most of the working population engages in
different activities during the year. It is estimated that on an average a working adult undertakes
1.5 types of earning activities during a year, under normal circumstances.

Such small-holders in Sundarban could augment their earnings through the surrounding natural
resources like river and forest – which is not usually available in other parts of rural India. Also,
many of them recently resorted to earning as migrant labourers, which is not so pronounced in
other parts of rural India. With a small family size, Sundarban households could tap a multiplicity
of earning opportunities. All these can be put forward to explain a higher MPCE for Sundarban
compared to similar landholding size classes in rural India.

9
4. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS
The Stern Review (2006), while finding overwhelming scientific evidence of global risk from
Climate Change (CC), had pointed out the additional vulnerability from flooding for the coastal
population in the Indian subcontinent, particularly Bangladesh, resulting from a predicted sea
level rise (SLR). Indian Sundarban is very much part the same topographical landscape for
which such warnings were issued. It is beyond doubt that Sundarban will be among the first set
of casualties due to a SLR as it is a low lying delta region. Even the relative rise in sea level is
not uniform across all regions as continental land subsidence is also a slow but sure
phenomenon. Conducted over a 14-year period till 1998, one study estimated an average
increase in sea level at the rate of 3.14 mm per year (Hazra et al 2002) for the region that
includes Sundarban, which is larger than the average rate in other parts of India
The SLR is, however, a slow process and its threat to coastal population can be reduced with
ex-ante planning and adaptation programmes. But in the context of Sundarban inhabitants, the
more immediate threat resulting from CC comes from forecasts of an increased frequency of
cyclones and super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. There is scientific literature predicting such
increases. A simulation exercise predicted an increase in occurrence of cyclones in the Bay of
Bengal in the increased GHG scenario (Ali, 1999; Unnikrishnan et al 2006). The effect of such
an event is more sudden and disastrous for the island population. Such events can result in the
destruction of their lifeline – the surrounding embankments.
In the face of unstable riverbanks and the continuous onslaught of tidal water, such
embankments are historically earthen and maintained by manual labour. Their height varies
between 2 to 4 meters depending on the relative elevation of the site vis-à-vis sea level. Usually
a cross section view of such an embankment is that of pyramid type with a flat top. The base of
a well maintained embankment is generally 4 to 6 meters with the top being 1.5 to 2 meter wide.
The embankments are often village roads as well, unless they are grossly eroded at top.
The tidal amplitude in this delta region is considerably high which increases even more in full-
moon/no-moon days and in the monsoon season. On such special days, the river waters can
surge nearly 4 meters from their mean level. Through local knowledge and experience, people
maintain a height of the embankments that could withstand such surges under normal
circumstances.
Such mud structures face erosion due to daily tidal flows which is accentuated in the days of
high wind and storm. In the monsoon season, when the average river water level becomes
higher, a high wind coupled with high tide often eats up the top of the weak embankments and
the saline water overflows to the nearby agricultural field. Such failures are frequent but usually
affect a small part of the island. This is because of village roads which create barriers to the
incoming water and confine it within smaller boundaries.

The situation, however, can be disastrous if a cyclone occurs at a time when the rivers are also
at their maximum height. In such a situation, even the healthy embankments cannot be a
protection to the additional heights such waters can gain with wind. Incidentally, in the 100
years’ settlement history on Sundarban islands, never a cyclone’s landfall has coincided with
the highest river water level, till cyclone Aila in 2009.

5. CYCLONE AILA AND DISASTER AFTERMATH

On May 25th, 2009, a no-moon day with deltaic rivers reaching their extreme high-tide mark,
cyclone Aila blew directly over Sundarban’s islands throughout the day. Though it was

10
forecasted, the people and the administration had no clue what a 100-120 kmph wind speed
could mean for this inter-tidal zone when its landfall coincided with an extreme high tide. The
result was unseen in the region’s settlement history.
Going by the conventional statistics on damages after such a disaster, Aila might not be
counted as an unprecedented calamity. The human death toll was around 100 people in
Sundarban with 50,000 huts being partially or fully damaged. But the real blow lies in the unique
context in which it occurred. Almost all the islands were submerged in salt water. Aila damaged
an overwhelming 400 km of the embankments, of which 139 km have been reportedly washed
away with their bases altogether! The damage was fairly uniformly distributed across all the
islands. Only a few pockets in few islands could incidentally survive.
It devastated the islands’ all important agriculture for at least one year. The major freshwater
sources on these islands - the village tanks – were overrun by saline water. The immediate
aftermath of Aila was a huge shortage of drinking water and food, trailed by a phase of
widespread diarrhea. These consequences are common to such disasters and were addressed
by reasonable provisions from various government departments and a large number of NGOs
and civil society organizations. But the event had cast its shadow on the normal life of the local
population. The dynamics of livelihood adjustment, after such a disaster, is still unfolding. In
face of CC predictions, there is an increased probability of occurrence of such events in future.

5.1 Effects on livelihood

Conventional wisdom tells us that disasters generally have a negative impact on the
environment. In a direct way, it can physically damage the environment by its intensity. In an
indirect way, it might put additional anthropogenic pressure on the natural resources caused by
the loss of usual livelihood of the affected people.
However in the case of Sundarban, the impact of the disaster was not so much on the
environment but much more on the livelihood of the people, and especially the poor. It was seen
that during the cyclone, mangrove forests could withstand such wind speed of 100-120 kmph.
There was no sign of physical damage to the forest. No tiger was reported to have died. There
was no perceivable damage to the biodiversity and ecosystem in this event.
Secondly, turning to livelihoods, one might expect a greater pressure on river and forest exerted
by the local people as their agriculture was lost. This is supported by empirical evidence from
other parts of the world. There are a good number of insightful studies examining households’
coping strategies in response to natural disasters in a rural set up (Mcsweeney, 2005;
Pattanayak & Sills, 2001; Takasaki et al, 2004). The studies suggest that agricultural
households living in close proximity to forest resources can fall back to collection of non-timber
forest products (NTFPs) or forest-clearing for new agricultural land and such resources could
provide a ‘natural insurance’ against such livelihood shocks. Surprisingly, after Aila in
Sundarban, the empirical findings tell a different story. It is found that the forest and river
dependence has marginally gone down after the disaster.

The post-disaster livelihood adjustments are better described when the surveyed villages are
grouped across two administrative blocks. This is because the loss in agriculture – the indicator
for livelihood disruption – has not been uniform across them. The southern block
(Patharpratima) has suffered a comparatively lesser blow. The islands in this block are situated
amidst wide rivers and had a more stable embankment network with more mangrove cover
around them. They were submerged by the saline water overflow through the top of

11
embankments, but such waters went back to the rivers at subsequent low tides. The damage to
the embankments was relatively less and it could contain fresh inflows during subsequent high
tides. The average amount of salt deposits on agricultural lands was less and some cultivation
was undertaken in this block in the ensuing monsoon months of 2009.
The islands in the northern block (Gosaba), however, are located amidst narrow river channels
through which tidal water passes more rapidly and the consequent erosion and damage to the
embankments had been greater. In many parts, such embankments were washed out during
the cyclone and the islands remained exposed to tidal water inflows for days and months. The
loss in agriculture in Gosaba block had been much severe and this is evident by the intensity of
livelihood changes across these two blocks. It is detailed in Table-4.
Table-4: Livelihood practices in the two survey blocks: before and after the cyclone
Block= Gosaba Block=Patharpratima
% of Change % of Change
% of % of
HH in % of HH in % of
Occupation HH pre- HH pre-
post- HH due post- HH due
Aila Aila
Aila to Aila Aila to Aila

own cultivation 63 16 -47 65 43 -22

Agricultural labourer 12 8 -4 48 47 -1
Other daily labourer 53 57 4 29 30 1
Salaried employment 8 8 0 6 7 1
commercial fishery 4 1 -3 1 1 0
prawn-fry collection 12 10 -2 6 5 -1
forest/river dependence 10 8 -2 7 6 -1
short term migration 18 22 4 19 23 4
long term migration 9 7 -2 5 5 0
small business 14 13 -1 13 14 1
big business/trade 1 1 0 1 1 0
Other 13 12 -1 14 16 2
A closer look at Table-4 tells that loss of agriculture naturally caused job losses for agricultural
labourers as well. In turn, the most significant percentage increase can be observed in favour of
short term migration (of less than one year) and other daily labouer. Even the estimates shown
in Table-4 under short term migration can be underestimates. As those reporting as daily
labourers also include workers who found jobs in nearby mainland for short periods.
It is interesting to note that though the intensity of loss in agriculture had been different across
the two blocks, the percentage of households resorting to prawn-fry collection and river / forest
dependence has gone down by similar scale in both the blocks.
This apparently paradoxical phenomenon might be explained, at least partly, by the prevailing
management scenario of the reserve forest. Being a World Heritage Site, the reserve forest is
managed by an exclusionist policy whereby forests are strictly guarded by the Forest
Department. So, there was little scope for the villagers to fall back on the forest. Also, there has
been a significant effort in recent years by government departments as well as NGOs to reduce
the practice of prawn-fry collection and forest intrusion. The same agencies undertook large
relief initiatives in the aftermath of Aila. They also tried to keep an eye on their beneficiaries so
that they do not increase pressure on the ecosystem. The empirical estimates of a reduction in
river/forest dependence after the cyclone might make sense in light of such dynamics at ground
level. It might be concluded that the nature of the natural resource as well as the prevailing

12
institutional set up can be crucial in deciding whether anthropogenic pressure increases or not
as a disaster aftermath.
Turning to migration, in Sundarban context, it should be read as ‘migration of working adults’
and not that of the households as a whole. Barring few exceptions, the households remained
planted on the islands after Aila, protecting whatever land and other assets they had. Perhaps
they knew that from experience that such loss in agriculture is temporary and the land generally
regains its productivity after one or two monsoons. Going by field observations, the most explicit
post-disaster coping strategy in Sundarban islands has been going out as migrant labourer.
Villages were found where more than three quarters of the households have sent their working
adults - at least one in number - to the mainland in post-Aila period. It is yet to be ascertained
whether such switching of livelihood is permanent or temporary.
The importance of migration as a coping strategy can be even more evident if the survey
villages are grouped according to the extent of agricultural loss caused by the disaster. As
villages were selected from all over the region, there was enough variation in the number of
days of their exposure to saline water and consequent agricultural loss. 13 out of 31 villages
reported a total loss in agriculture. If they are grouped and contrasted with the other set whose
loss was partial, the differential in livelihood changes can be more pronounced. Table-5 shows
the result with a few key-indicators.
Table-5: Livelihood changes across two groups of villages
Villages which Villages which
reported total loss reported partial
in agriculture loss in agriculture
No. of villages 13 18

Average number of days of saline water intrusion 24 7

% of households reporting no agriculture after Aila 100 21

% change in the number of households earning from
-27 -3
agricultural labour
% change in the number of households earning from
13 2
daily labour
% change in the number of households earning from
58 13
migrant labour
It clearly shows that where the disaster left agriculture impossible, there was large reduction in
the number of agricultural labourers as well. There, people mostly turned to other daily labour
and out-migration as a coping strategy. The reduction in forest and river dependence also does
fit into this story well. Prawn-fry catching and fishing are mostly resorted to by people with
marginal landholding. When their agriculture was possible, they stayed in their villages. With
small landholding, there was a lot of surplus time for them to exploit the open access rivers and
venture into the forests. But when there was no agriculture, working adults moved out in search
of job – reducing the pressure on rivers and forest.

5.2 Who migrates?

It might be interesting to explore the profile of the households which resorted to temporary
migration. The possible link between migration and reduction of anthropogenic pressure on the
forest and river might be validated if the landless and poorly endowed households are the
dominant contributors to migrant labourers. Table-6 ascertains this.
Table-6: Migration across landholding class

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 Landholding classes (hectare)
0.21- More than
0-0.01 0.02-0.20 0.40 0.41-1.00 1 ha

Number of households in the study 141 201 114 85 25

% of households contributing to
44 34 35 33 36
migrant labourer (after Aila)

Average household size 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.5 6.4

Average MPCE (Rs.) 917 1210 1722 1647 1606

It is seen from Table-6 that the maximum proportion of households resorting to migration is
reported from the lowest landholding class. This is in spite of their average household size being
the lowest. The higher landholding classes have also reported a significant migration trend. The
migrants remit or personally bring back their savings from outside. The estimates shown in
Table- 6 are post-Aila estimates. The MPCE estimates, coupled with the observations in Table-
3 before, indicate that money earned from outside may have helped Sundarban villagers to
maintain a respectable level of consumption standard.
It appears that for a remote region which is grossly poor in terms of infrastructural provisions
and land productivity (single crop), a disaster like Aila might have stirred up and induced greater
mobility in a large labour force which was grossly underemployed.

6. GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE: THE LAND QUESTION

The unprecedented disaster in Sundarban had shaken up the administration. In light of CC
threats and an increasing probability of recurrence of such events in future, the state
government had come up with long term adaptation measures to protect the island population.
An obvious component of this measure is building of several cyclone relief centres across
Sundarban. These are at the implementation level and some has already come up. However,
such measures protect life but not the livelihood. The core of the long term livelihood protection
measure, as planned by the government, consists of building much bigger and stronger
embankments along the islands with a considerably wide mangrove cover surrounding it. The
plan is to clear the land along the riverbanks, build embankments with bases much wider
(greater than 30 meters) and with a reasonable margin of land kept on the riverside to grow
mangroves.
As already noted, Sundarban islands are densely populated and there is little public land
available. So, a plan for building large embankments needed, at the first place, acquisition of
land by the government. According to media reports, the state government has forwarded its
plan to the central government and there has been allocation of money by the centre for this
purpose. However, the amount of land acquired by the state administration for this purpose till
date is nil.
There is an understandable political angle in this stalemate. Land acquisition by the
government, in recent times, had created major political antagonism throughout the country.
And the state where this has created maximum political turmoil and unrest is West Bengal. After
the government’s recent attempts to acquire land in the state elsewhere, for industrial
development, the ruling political front had suffered major electoral defeat in parliamentary and

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local level elections. So, with impending assembly elections, the inaction towards land
acquisition can be reasoned as political compulsions.
The survey findings can be illuminating in this backdrop. If a household among the survey
sample possessed some land near the river – which can be a potential takeover piece – it was
asked whether the household is willing to give up the land for a strong embankment project by
the government. For the households which answered in negative, an additional question was
asked as: what will you do if the government takes it away by force?
The responses, as summarized in Table-7, are interesting and can be useful to the authority for
informed decision making. It clearly points out the difference in land acquisition issue on
Sundarban islands and elsewhere. The responses are even more significant in light of the fact
that the main political opposition has acquired most of these in local bodies (Panchayet) in the
last election in 2008. Even then, an overwhelming majority of the households has supported
land acquisition by the government, if it is aimed at their own future protection. Only a very small
percentage of households revealed their strong opposition to such an attempt.

Table-7: Responses to the land question

Total no. of households surveyed: 618

Percentage of households that have land adjacent or near embankment: 60.7 %

Percentage of eligible households that are willing to give up land for embankment 75.7 %

Percentage of eligible households that are NOT willing to give up land 22.9 %

Percentage of eligible households that will strongly resist forceful land acquisition 5.3 %

This shows that the political consensus regarding land question depends much on the
motivation behind it and the convergence/divergence of stakeholders’ interest. When land is
acquired for future industrial development, it involves potential capital gain for the remaining
landholders in the surrounding area. Then there is a divergence of interest which can create
political problems. But in remote Sundarban islands, when land acquisition is aimed for a
collective good, the responses can be qualitatively different.

7. CONCLUSION
The story that emerges from the survey estimates and descriptive data analysis can be
summarized in the following few paragraphs.

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The vast island population in Sundarban delta lives with poor infrastructural provisions caused
mainly by their locational disadvantages. The households are mainly agricultural and the region
is characterized by mono-crop rain-fed agricultural. The agricultural output is mostly self-
consumed. Households augment their earning by engaging in multiple earning activities. Such
activities traditionally included fishing and forest collections, and in more recent times working
as migrant labourer. The poverty scenario in the region is not acute. Going by the monthly per-
capita expenditure pattern, Sundarban islanders, in general, are better off compared to their
rural counterparts in mainland India.
There is potential threat posed to the delicate mangrove ecosystem and World Heritage Site by
the presence of a large population in the fringe area. However, a strict and exclusionist
protection policy pursued by the Department of forests as well as awareness building
programmes undertaken by government agencies and non-governmental organizations, has
been able to contain such anthropogenic pressure in recent times.
The regions short term vulnerability from climate related events has been amply demonstrated
by cyclone Aila, which rendered agriculture impossible over vast swaths of land for at least a full
year. The spontaneous coping behaviour of the households has been identified as (i) temporary
migration of their working men and women (ii) resorting to non-farm daily labour. It is notable
that forest and river dependence has actually decreased after the event.
The study also finds that a dominant majority of households having land on the riverside are
willing to give up their land to the government for the purpose of building a strong embankment
that will ensure future protection from such disasters. It highlights the distinction in stakeholders’
aspirations relating to land acquisition in the case of Sundarban. There is a convergence of
interest among the community. In this regard, the authority can use the study findings to pursue
its stated adaptation policy.
Lastly, the experience of Aila can be telling for devising long term coping strategies for such
regions. Beyond the sudden disasters like cyclones, SLR scenarios predict an impending
doomsday for these islands between 50-100 years. Also there is a growing consensus for
preserving and possibly increasing the area under mangroves and the tiger habitat. The ever
increasing trend of out-migration might be indicative that the islands are no longer capable of
sustaining the economic life of all their inhabitants.
In-situ protection of the islanders against such natural disasters involves huge costs for building
much bigger and stronger embankments all around them. In the contrary, many islanders are
willing to move out to the mainland. It might be economically more rational to explore the
possibility of relocating parts of the population - phase by phase - in the mainland. At least for
the most remote and underdeveloped islands, field data is indicative that in-situ protection can
be significantly more costly than a well-designed relocation scheme which foresee a complete
relocation of the population from some islands in the long run.

LITERATURE

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Research, Vol. 12, pp.109-116

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2. Hazra S., T. Ghosh, R. DasGupta and G. Sen (2002), Sea Level and associated changes in
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