Long term weather trends in western Maharashtra

A. Jacob1 and A. K. Rajvanshi2,1

1
French intern at NARI, student from Ecole Centrale de Lyon, Ecully 69130, France.
2
Director NARI, Nimbkar Agricultural Research Institute (NARI), Phaltan 415523,
India.
Abstract
This study aims at analysing the meteorological data collected by Nimbkar
Agricultural Research Institute (NARI) since 1983. The main objectives were to
provide average figures and curves of Phaltan weather, and to identify possible
trends since 1983, especially warming. Results show that there is indeed a clear
warming trend, but it seems to be influenced by changes in the surroundings of the
station (microclimate). Wind velocity and evaporation have also slightly decreased.
Increase in plant cover in Phaltan area might have played a role.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall trend, temperature trend, weather composites,

rural area

Knowledge of meteorological conditions is crucial to any agricultural work. Apart from

the obvious rainfall and temperature factors, evaporation, wind and humidity are also
affecting the way plants grow0. Usually climate is of less importance because of its
very large timescale, but with the quick changes induced by the industrial era it may
become a source of concern and a parameter to take into account. The aim of this
study is thus to provide figures as well as composite (average) curves for the main
meteorological parameters and identify possible trends. Only the most significant
results have been presented here.

Nimbkar Agricultural Research Institute

(NARI) has been collecting
meteorological data since 1983. The
weather station is located in Phaltan
town (Satara district, Maharashtra) at
18° latitude and 750m above sea level.
It is currently recording 11 parameters
daily (minimum and maximum
temperature, minimum and maximum
relative humidity, rainfall, pan
evaporation, wind speed at two different
heights, wind orientation and nature of
sky). The solar radiation has been
Figure 1 Location of Phaltan4 recorded between from 1985 to 1991
and from 2000 to 2003.

1
For correspondence. (e-mail: nariphaltan@gmail.com)

NARI – September 2006 1/7

The average weather data is given in table 1.
Table 1 Average weather of Phaltan weather
Parameter Instrument used Value
Mean daily maximum 33.5 °C
Min/max
Temperature Mean daily minimum thermometer
18.8 °C
Mean daily average 25.1 °C
Yearly rainfall 521 mm/y
Mean rainfall 8.12 mm/d
Rainfall Class A raingauge
intensity
Number of rainy days 64 d/y
Wind Mean velocity Anemometer 5.06 km/h
Mean daily maximum 81.6 %
Relative Class A
Mean daily minimum hygrothermograph
36.7 %
humidity
Mean daily average 59.1 %
Mean daily 5.40 mm/d
Evaporation Pan
evaporation
Yearly radiation Total radiation 1549 kWh/m²-y
Solar radiation pyranometer
Mean daily radiation 4.77 kWh/m²-d
Composites for temperature, rainfall and solar radiation are given in figures 2, 3 and
4. The standard deviations of the values from all the years are shown in figures 2 and
4.

45

40

35
Air temperature (°C)

Daily max
30
Daily min
25
Daily
20 average

15

10

0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Figure 2 Temperature composite

NARI – September 2006 2/7

 14
88%

12

41%
Rainfall (mm/d)

10
14% 45%
8

0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month

Figure 3 Rainfall composite

7
Solar radiation (kWh/m²-d)

5 Solar
radiation
4

0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month

Figure 4 Solar radiation composite

Figure 3 indicates that most of the rainfall falls during 5 month (June, July, August,
September and October). Two peaks correspond to onsetting and receding
monsoons. Phaltan gets most of its rainfall during receding monsoon. Thus second
peak is much more significant, accounting for 41% of yearly rainfall in 43 days only.
As most regions in India, rainfall is highly concentrated with an average of only 64
rainy days in the year and 72% of yearly rainfall falling in one fifth of the rainy days.
These heavy downpours are difficult to harvest because of the surface runoff.
Besides, yearly rainfall at Phaltan is 521mm which is quite low compared to the
national average of 1280mm2. Moreover, the region is drought-prone as shown by
the coefficient of variability of yearly rainfall of 35% which is quite high. Efficient water

NARI – September 2006 3/7

harvesting technologies are thus critical to fulfil irrigation and drinking water needs
throughout the year.

2
Variation from 1983 value (°C)

1,8

1,6
1.45°C increase
1,4
1.07°C increase
1,2
0.69°C increase
1

0,8

0,6 r2=0.62
Standard error of estimate=0.25°C
0,4

0,2

0
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years

Figure 5 Temperature trend (average)

4
Variation from 1983 value (°C)

3
y = 0.0676x + 0.6428
r2 = 0.4947
2
y = 0.0496x + 0.4463
r2 = 0.3334
1

y = 0.0219x - 0.5455
0 r2 = 0.1058

Winter
-1 (Oct-Jan)
Summer
-2 (Feb-May)
1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Monsoon
(Jun-Sep)
Years

Figure 6 Seasonal temperature trends (average)

Trends for different weather parameters are given in figures 5 to 11. Figure 5 shows
a warming trend with a variation comprised between 0.69°C and 1.45°C with a 95%
confidence level and an average estimation of 1.07°C. These figures are comparable
to those in Indian cities3. But since plant cover has increased in the region, the
temperature should have been reduced. A possible explanation is that our 23 years’
span is not sufficient to rule out “natural” cyclical variations, for which at least 50
years would be needed3. Seasonal trends in figure 6 reveal a strange phenomenon:

NARI – September 2006 4/7

while average temperature is increasing for both winter and summer, it remains more
or less constant for monsoon. This fact does not have any simple explanation since
yearly rainfall, which occurs mostly during monsoon season, has not increased
significantly (figure 7). Moreover seasonal average wind speeds have decreased at
the same rate. But these differences in temperature increase tend to prove that the
high increase in average temperature is not due to instrument errors.

1000

900

800

700
Rainfall (mm/y)

y = 3.3293x + 480.6
r2 = 0.0152
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20
Years

Figure 7 Rainfall trend (yearly)

30,00

25,00

Daily average
Velocity (km/h)

20,00
Daily max

15,00

10,00

5,00
y = -0.2842x + 8.4742
2
r = 0.8062
0,00
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Years

Figure 8 Wind velocity trends

The wind trend in figure 8 shows a steady decline since 1983. It might be a
consequence of increase in plant cover in the region. Without green cover solar
radiation heats the ground which creates more wind. Planting of trees in the close
surroundings (approx. 20m) of the weather station might have reinforced this trend.

NARI – September 2006 5/7

 100

90
y = 0.4904x + 75.672
80 r2 = 0.3623
Relative humidity (%)

Daily max
70

Daily
60 average
y = 0.3116x + 55.407
r2 = 0.3277
50 Daily min

40
y = 0.1329x + 35.142
R2 = 0.0844
30

20
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years

Figure 9 Humidity trends

Average humidity has increased of 7.2% but the coefficient of determination is only
0.33. Thus, more data is needed to validate or refute this trend. An increase in
humidity could again be explained by the increase in biomass in the region.

20

18

16

14
Daily
Evaporation (mm/d)

max
12

10 Daily
average
8

4 y = -0.1205x + 6.8454
2
r = 0.6415
2

0
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Years

Figure 10 Evaporation trends

Figure 11 shows a clear decreasing trend for average evaporation. Evaporation is a

function of temperature, wind speed and humidity. A good correlation can be found
between wind and evaporation trends indeed since their coefficient of correlation is
0.87. Possible increase in humidity might have also played a minor role in this trend
but the coefficient of correlation between the two parameters is only -0.34. Finally,

NARI – September 2006 6/7

the increase in temperature should have tempered the decreasing trend in
evaporation but it didn’t seem to have much influence.

Even though our data may be inadequate to ascertain trends, we have still recorded
clear tendencies towards warming and reduced wind speed and evaporation.
Increase in vegetation in the surroundings of Phaltan might have played a role in
wind and evaporation trends, but some facts such as the high increase in
temperature and the constant monsoon temperature remain unexplained.
Composites and average figures can still be used fruitfully by farmers to plan their
crops and anticipate rainfall and temperature variations.

References
1. Hagan, R. M., Haise, H. R., Edminster T. W. Irrigation of Agricultural Lands.
American Society of Agronomy, Madison, 1967, 1180 pages.
2. Centre for Science and Environment. Dying wisdom: rise, fall and potential of
India’s traditional water harvesting systems. Centre for Science and Environment,
New Delhi, 1997, 404 pages.
3. Prof. Srinivasan, J., Chairman of mechanical engineering department and
professor Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, IISc Bangalore. 2006.
Personal communication.
4. The TTK school atlas. Tamilnad printers & traders Pvt. Ltd. 1985.
Acknowledgments
A. J. is very grateful to NARI staff for providing him with help and advice throughout
this study. He is especially thankful to A. K. Rajvanshi, director of NARI, and N.
Nimbkar, president of NARI, and S. R. Deshmukh, the present in-charge of the
weather station. Thanks are due to Nilesh Deshpande for entering all the data in the
weather program. Finally, thanks to Dr. Koppar, GOI Meteorological centre, and Prof.
Srinivasan, IISc Bangalore, for giving us feedback on our results.

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